[roccodean]

Check out all my past picks at www.byeweekpicks.com (not a tout I assure you)!

1*: .66 to .75 Unit
2*: 1 Unit
3*: 1.3-1.5 Units
4*: 1.5-1.66 Units
5*: 2+ Units

These are my 3 plays this week and I will likely have a play on Monday night game. This is an odd year as I once again have contrary indicators on a lot of games (example: my trends will favor one team, my Super System will favor the other). My Super System has been great this year: 19-10 when line difference is 5 or more (66%), 21-12 when difference is 4 or more, and 59.4% lifetime. This week it favorsTennessee (4 point difference if line is 4, but it looks like it moved to 4.5), K.C. (but there are 13 trends favoring Denver), N.O. (but trends and high line outweigh this therefore I am wagering on St. Louis), Cinci (which I like but Balt is coming off a blowout loss and I think they will play tough), Indy (don't like them as a road favorite with a lot of injuries and possible hangover after N.E. game). There are 2 great straight up winner trends on Pitt (38-2 and 27-3 straight up) but I feel the line may be too high.

3* St. Louis +11.5 over New Orleans
Though St. Louis is not a good team New Orleans does not deserve to be a 11.5 point favorite to anyone. They have been improved over the last few games but their offense (especially rushing) is not where it was last year and their defense is bad. There are 17 great trends favoring the Rams in this game. One trend is 20-4 playing on poor teams off their bye week. Another trend plays on winless teams as road dogs and the Rams qualify for a specific part of this trend that is 48-16-3 ATS. Statistically, the Saints are not a good football team. On the offensive side of the ball they average 3.67 YPR (25th in NFL) and 6.49 YPPA (23rd). The last 3 games their passing game is improved, but their running game is still one of the worst in the leagues. Bush is listed as questionable, but I believe he will play and it doesn't matter because he is not an every down back like Deuce is. The Saint's rushing D is strong allowing 3.66 YPR (6th), but their passing defense is one of the worst in the leagues allowing 8.2 YPPA (30th).
The Rams are having a bad year to say the least, but coming off their bye I see them keeping this one close. St. Louis averages 3.46 YPR (28th), but they are 7th in passing offense and as I mentioned will be facing one of the worst passing defenses in the league. Against the run they are average allowing 4.1 YPR (18th). Versus the pass they allow 7.5 YPPA (24th). The Rams are dead last in turnover ratio at -13 and I don't see this continuing as Bulger will face a terrible pass D. I love the Rams, but I am not going to make this a 4* play because my Super System favors New Orleans (it seems there are contrary factors on many games this year).

2* Tennessee -4 over Jax
I was contemplating taking Tennessee before I did because of their offense. But, after watching their defense I am not worried anymore. They are swarming and are right up there with the top defenses in the league. Jacksonville on the other hand has an overrated defense. As I have said the past few weeks, their stats are poor and sooner or later the points would catch up and they did in a big way as New Orleans scored 41 on them (in a victory for byeweekpicks). These two teams faced each other week 1 and the Titans won 13-10 and owned the game (T.O.P. 37 minutes versus 22 minutes). They lost the turnover battle and still won the game which is very rare in the NFL. Jacksonville's defense allows 4.2 YPR (versus teams that have averaged 3.9 YPR) and is ranked 16th in the NFL. In the air they are very poor allowing 7.63 YPR (26th). Offensively, their rushing game is above average gaining 4.4 YPR (8th). Garrard is listed as questionable this week. I would rather Gray play because he is very bad, but if Garrard is injured and if he does play he will not be 100%. Jacksonville is in a very tough schedule position as they are playing their 3rd straight road game. On the other hand, the Titans are playing their 3rd consecutive home game. This is very rare to see this schedule mismatch in the NFL.
Tennessee's is predominantly a rushing team and average 150 YPG (3rd in NFL). Young is not having a great year, but his job is not to put up great numbers it's to win, and that's what he does. The Titan's statistically have the best (yes, better than the Pats) defense in the league. They allow only 3.45 YPR (3rd) and 66 YPG (1st) and 5.94 YPPA (4th). My Super System has the Titans as 8.1 point favorites (if line stays at 4 this is significant). There is a proven 241-154 ATS trend (since 1981) favoring the Titans and a 38-2 straight up winner trend!

2* Miami +3.5 (-130) over Buffalo (Buy 1/2 point)
Buffalo has won three consecutive games and covered five consecutive, and I think these streaks are in danger in Miami. These teams are nearly the same statistically and there are multiple trends favoring Miami. Miami knows they will not have many opportunities to win, but they have one here and will be playing their butts off for the victory. The Bills average only 3.82 YPR (22nd) and 7 YPPA (16th). Defensively they are also poor allowing 4.44 YPR (24ht) and 7 YPPA (17th). The last 3 games these are improved, but not dramatically enough to make them a 3 point road favorite. Buffalo is also +7 in turnover ratio and it's amazing they are only 4-4 (this shows how poor they are).
Miami's rushing game is strong with R. Brown in (2nd in NFL at 4.85 YPR), but he is hurt. Backup Chatman had a strong game last week averaging 5 YPR against a strong Giant's D and I see this continuing this week against a horrible Bill's D. Cleo has not been great averaging only 6.1 YPPA. Defensively, the Phins D is similar to the Bills allowing 4.5 YPR and 8.16 YPPA. There are 12 trends favoring Miami many similar to the Rams as both teams are winless teams and off a bye. Also, Miami has the second most difficult strength of schedule in the league are -8 in turnover ratio (which won't continue).