[Tommy]

Sunday, December 7, 2008

Bengals (1-10-1) @ Colts (8-4)

Indy won last five games, but is 1-4 as home favorite this year, losing first two in new stadium, winning three in row by 28-3-6 points-- Colts have one win this season (Week 6, 31-3 vs Ravens) by more than six points. Bengals lost last two games by total of 61-13, they're 2-3 as road dog, losing away games by 7-3-9-12-29 and 17 points. In its last three games, Cincinnati has two TDs on 43 drives with 23 3/outs. AFC North road dogs are 10-5 vs spread in non-division tilts. AFC South home favorites are 3-11.

Jaguars (4-8) @ Bears (6-6)

More travel on short work week for Jags, who've lost three in row, all by 10+ points; they've turned ball over eight times the last two weeks, were outscored 54-19 in second half of the last three games. Bears lost three of last four games; they're 3-2 at home, 1-2 as home favorite, losing only to 9-3 Bucs, 11-1 Titans at home. Jags are 3-3 on road, 2-1 as road dog- eight of their opponents' last 21 drives got started in Jaguar territory. Three of last four Bear games stayed under total. AFC South road underdogs are 5-2; NFC North home faves: 3-4.

Texans (5-7) @ Packers (5-7)

Houston expected to get Schaub back at QB after Rosenfels led Texans to consecutive wins (eight takeaways, +5 turnover ratio)- they covered three of last four on road. Packers' playoff hopes in dire straits after home loss to Carolina; they've lost four of last five games, allowing 51-35 points in last two games (-16/-17 in average starting field position). Over is 6-2-1 in last nine Packer games, 8-3 in last eleven Houston games. NFC North home teams are 5-11 vs spread out of division, 3-4 if favored. AFC South road underdogs are 5-2.

Browns (4-8) @ Titans (11-1)

Cleveland down to Dorsey at QB after Quinn/Anderson went out for year- they just signed Gradkowski during week to back up Dorsey, bad situation for Browns, who will be without Winslow here, too. Cleveland covered its last four road games (3-1 SU) but in last two games, both at home, they didn't score a TD on 10 drives with seven turnovers, six 3/outs. Titans had three extra days to prepare after jogging on Thanksgiving in Detroit- they're 3-2 as home fave, with wins in Nashville by 7-19-13-10-3 points. AFC North road dogs: 10-5.

Vikings (7-5) @ Lions (0-12)

Fate of Viking DTs (suspensions) up in air as lawyers try to get injunction allowing them to play. Detroit is 0-6 at home, losing by 23-27-8-24-18-37 points (0-6 as home dog). They've had three extra days to prepare, but they've been outscored 85-23 in the second half of last six games. Vikings won four of last five games, scored 28+ in five of last six; they're 2-4 on road, winning by 3-18 pts. In first meeting, Minnesota won 12-10 (-13) in Week 6, in game Detroit led 3-2 at halftime. NFC North home dogs are 0-3 vs spread in divisional play.

Redskins (7-5) @ Ravens (8-4)

Baltimore won, covered six of their last seven games (lost to Giants), despite playing four of last five on foreign soil- they're 3-0 as home favorite, winning at home by 7-18-19-29 pts. Redskins are fading, dropping three of last four games; in last five games, they've scored only five TDs on 52 drives, and have three TDs on last 13 trips to red zone. Under is 7-0-1 in last eight Redskin games, but 1-4 in last five Baltimore games. NFC East road dogs are 0-1; home faves in AFC North home favorites are 3-5 against the spread.

Eagles (6-5-1) @ Giants (11-1)

Big Blue won first meeting 36-31 four weeks ago at The Linc, running ball for 219 yards, with two TD drives of 80+ yards- they've won, covered seven games in row, are 5-1 as fave at home, winning in Swamp by 9-3-38-12-21-20 points. Eagles scored a single TD on 31 drives in last two road games; they snapped out of funk with big Thursday night win vs Arizona last week, so they've had three extra days to prepare. Giants had chaotic week with drama surrounding Burress/Pierce saga. NFC East home favorites are 2-4 against the spread.

Falcons (8-4) @ Saints (6-6)

Three Saints (two DL, McAllister) were suspended for last four games, unsure if that will stick; New Orleans got beat 34-20 in Georgia Dome four weeks ago (+1.5). Falcons averaged a hefty 10.8 yds/pass attempt in that game, picked Brees off three times, one for game-clinching TD, offsetting Brees' 416 passing yards. Saints are 4-1 in Superdome, scoring average of 33.4 ppg at home. Falcons are 8-0 if they score more than 20 points; nine of last 11 Saint foes topped 20 pts. Home faves in NFC South games this season are 6-2 vs spread.

Jets (8-4) @ 49ers (4-8)

Gang Green had five-game win streak snapped in rainy Swamp last week; they're 0-2 in California this year, losing both in San Diego (48-29), Oakland (16-13,ot), their only losses in six games on foreign soil. Jets ran ball 19 times last week, dropped back to pass 45 times, a lousy ratio for them. Niners won two of last three games, were outgained by 155 yards in Buffalo last week, in an ugly 10-3 win- they are 2-4 at home, AFC East road favorites are 2-3 vs spread; NFC West home dogs are 3-7. 49ers' last four home games went over the total. This is a game the Jets have to win if they're a legitimate playoff team.

Dolphins (7-5) vs Bills (6-6) (@ Toronto)

Buffalo lost five of last six games, now has "home" game under roof of Rogers Centre, instead of in wintry cold of Orchard Park, which you'd think would have been huge advantage vs South Florida Fish. Miami won five of last six games, with last three wins by 2-2-4 points- only one of their last six opponents has scored 20+ points. Edwards didn't play in second half last week, QB is Losman if he can't go here. Bills ran ball for 186-171-156 yards in their last three, which is terrific. Underdogs are 6-3 vs spread in AFC East.

Chiefs (2-10) @ Broncos (7-5)

Broncos (-9) got waxed 33-19 in Week 4 at Arrowhead, as Chiefs ran ball for 213 yards, forced four turnovers (+3) and had 19-yard advantage in average field position. Unfortunately for Chiefs, that game and last week are their only wins. Denver has been horrible home favorite; they've lost last three at Invesco, and their three wins there this year are by 1-2-3 points, but big game by Cutler in win over Jets last week (27-43/357 in rainstorm) has Denver hopeful they've turned things around. Chiefs covered their last three road games.

Rams (2-10) @ Cardinals (7-5)

Arizona had three extra days to ready for this after pair of losses to NFC East clubs, Warner Brothers figure to exploit dispirited Ram club (2-4 as road dog) that has eight losses by 17 or more points this season. Arizona won first meeting 34-13 in St Louis five weeks ago (-3), outgaining Rams 510-231, averaging 9.5 yards/pass attempt. Redbirds are 5-1 vs spread as favorite this year, 4-1 at home, with wins by 21-24-6-5 points. Would expect Cardinals to run ball little more here- in last four games, they've run ball 68 times for 170 yards.

Cowboys (8-4) @ Steelers (9-3)

Both sides won last three games, but with Romo back under center, Dallas scored 35-34 points in last couple games- they have nine TDs on 22 drives in three games since their bye. Big Ben is banged up (left practice early Wednesday) but Steelers gave up 10 points in each of last three games, scored last 30 points of game in Foxboro last week- they're playing great defense. Surprising that Dallas has only been in opponents' red zone 31 times this year, T4th lowest in league. Steelers are 4-2 at home, losing to Giants/Colts. Three of Dallas' last four road games went over total.

Patriots (7-5) @ Seahawks (2-10)

Hasselbeck, Tatupu faces team their dads played for, but Seahawks are having nightmarish season in farewell season for Holmgren, losing all nine games that weren't against Rams or 49ers- they're 1-5 at home, with losses by 3-10-19-6-3 points. Patriots are outside looking in on playoffs right now, 2-3 in last five games- they allowed 34-28-33 points in last three, and re-signed LB Colvin this week to shore up defense. Last five Seattle games stayed under the total. NFC West home underdogs are 3-7 vs spread; AFC East road favorites: 2-3.


Monday, December 8, 2008

Buccaneers (9-3) @ Panthers (9-3)

Winner here leads NFC South with three games left; Carolina (+2) got clobbered 27-3 in first meeting, with Bucs outrushing Panthers 142-40, picking off three Delhomme passes, but Carolina is 5-1 since then, and is 6-0 at home, winning by 3-15-34- 23-4-9 points. Home favorites are 6-2 vs spread in NFC South contests. Tampa Bay won last four games; they're 3-3 on road, with two losses by three points. Last three Carolina games went over total, but five of last seven Bucs games stayed under. Tampa outscored last four foes by combined total of 64-16 in 2nd half- they trailed four of last five at half.

[Tommy]

NFL Week 14 Trends


Sunday, December 7th

Cincinnati at Indianapolis, 1:00 ET
Cincinnati: 1-8 ATS vs. conference
Indianapolis: 5-1 Over after scoring 14pts or less

Jacksonville at Chicago, 1:00 ET
Jacksonville: 8-0 Over L4 weeks of the regular season
Chicago: 5-1 ATS off division loss

Houston at Green Bay, 1:00 ET
Houston: n/a
Green Bay: 6-1 Over off home loss

Cleveland at Tennessee, 1:00 ET
Cleveland: 6-1 Over off BB home games
Tennessee: 10-2 ATS this season

Minnesota at Detroit, 1:00 ET
Minnesota: 1-5 ATS off SU win
Detroit: 5-0 Over L5 games

Philadelphia at NY Giants, 1:00 ET
Philadelphia: 12-2 Over as an underdog
NY Giants: 8-0 ATS vs. NFC

Atlanta at New Orleans, 1:00 ET
Atlanta: 0-6 ATS off BB SU wins
New Orleans: 6-0 Over at home 2nd half of season

NY Jets at San Francisco, 4:05 ET
NY Jets: 6-0 ATS Away in December
San Francisco: 7-1 Over off non-conference game

Miami vs. Buffalo, 4:05 ET (in Toronto, Canada)
Miami: 5-15 ATS off road game
Buffalo: 13-4 ATS the line is +3 to -3

Kansas City at Denver, 4:05 ET
Kansas City: 4-1 Under off ATS win
Denver: 0-6 ATS as home favorite

New England at Seattle, 4:05 ET
New England: 17-6 ATS in road games
Seattle: 13-2 Over at home off loss by 21+ points

St. Louis at Arizona, 4:15 ET
St. Louis: 6-1 Over after scoring 14 points or less BB games
Arizona: 0-8 ATS as a home favorite of 7.5 to 14 points

Dallas at Pittsburgh, 4:15 ET
Dallas: 7-0 ATS if the line is +3 to -3
Pittsburgh: 1-10 ATS after scoring 30+ points

Washington at Baltimore, 8:15 ET NBC
Washington: 2-7 ATS vs. AFC
Baltimore: 7-0 Over L7 games



Monday, December 8th

Tampa Bay at Carolina, 8:30 ET ESPN
Tampa Bay: 9-13 ATS in road games
Carolina: 8-0 Under at home vs. divison