[Tommy]

2008 NFL Week 16

Colts (10-4) @ Jaguars (5-9)

Seems like long time ago Indy lost 23-21 at home to Jags (Week 3); Jax had 236 rushing yards, averaged 7.6 yards per pass, were 8-14 on 3rd down and had a defensive TD, but they have lost six of last eight games, with four of last five staying under the total. Colts won last seven games, are 5-2 on road, winning by 3-4-4-3-4 pts. Indy is 3-8 against spread as a favorite this season. Jaguars are 2-1 as an underdog, but 0-4 vs spread in game following a win. AFC South home teams are 4-5 vs spread in division games.

Ravens (9-5) @ Cowboys (9-5)

Health of Romo major concern for the hosts, who are 4-1 since their bye, allowing one TD on opponents' last 33 drives, with two takeaways in each of last four games. Dallas won its last five home games, covering last four. Ravens completed less than half their passes in three of last four games; they've won seven of last nine after tough loss vs Steelers last week. NFC East home favorites are 11-4 vs spread. AFC North road dogs are 10-7 vs spread out of its division. Baltimore covered five of its seven road games this season.

Steelers (11-3) @ Titans (12-2)

Van den Bosch, Haynesworth, Titans' two best defensive linemen, are out here, so with the top seed in AFC on line here, Steelers visit shorthanded Titans off huge win at Baltimore, in which Pitt scored winning TD with 0:43 left. Titans split last four games after 10-0 start- they're 4-2 as home favorite- their defense allowed just two TDs on foes' last 35 drives. Pitt held last five opponents to 13 or less points, giving up four TDs on last 57 drives. AFC North road clubs are 10-7 vs spread out of division. AFC South home teams are 6-12.

Dolphins (9-5) @ Chiefs (2-12)

KC CEO Peterson quit this week, so lot of distractions for Chief club that blew game to Chargers last week, losing 22-21 after it led Bolts 21-3 in third quarter. Miami hasn't allowed TD in last three games, all against bad teams (28 drives); they're 4-2 on road, but 1-6 vs spread when favored. Chiefs have only two wins, but they've covered three in row, six of last eight games- they've trailed at the half in only two of those eight. AFC East road favorites are 3-5 vs spread; AFC West underdogs are 10-13, 2-6 at home.

Cardinals (8-6) @ Patriots (9-5)

Arizona hasn't travelled well in 2008 (0-4 in EST, 1-3 vs spread, losses by 7-21-4-28 points), but the prolific Cardinal offense is tough matchup for slowish Patriot D. New England is 2-5 as home favorite, losing last two SU- their home wins are by 7-34-7 10 points. Patriots need this game more than Redbirds. Patriots' last five games all went over the total. NFC West road dogs are 6-11 vs spread out of its division; AFC East home favorites are 6-12. Arizona lost three of last four games, giving up 35+ points in all three losses.

Bengals (2-11-1) @ Browns (4-10)

Cincinnati is 2-1-1 when it allows less than 20 points; in their last four games, Cleveland scored 6-6-9-10 points (no offensive TDs on last 40 drives). Browns won first matchup 20-12 in Week 4 (+3.5) in Queen City, with five takeaways reversing a 6-3 halftime deficit. Total offense in that game was 261-211, Cleveland. Browns are on short work week after losing at Philly Monday; they are 1-6 at home, with only win against the Giants. Bengals are 0-7 on road, with losses by 7-3-9-12-29-17-32 points. Not much to choose from.

Eagles (8-5-1) @ Redskins (7-7)

Two teams going opposite directions, as Philly won last three games, scoring 32.7 ppg, while Redskins are 1-5 in last six games, with three straight losses. Eagles are 33-50 in last three games on third down, have run ball for 153.3 ypg, after having had one game before that all season with more than 108 rushing yards. Redskins (+6.5) won first meeting 23-17 in Week 5, running ball for 203 yards in game Eagles led 14-9 at half. Home teams are 3-6 vs spread in divisional games in NFC East play. Over is 4-1-1 in Philadelphia's last six games.

49ers (5-9) @ Rams (2-12)

St Louis is horrible, losing last eight games, but last two at home were 16-12/23-20, when they held Jackson out on last drive on potential game-tying/winning drives. 49ers won 35-16 out at Candlestick in first meeting (-6)- it was 35-3 at half. Rams don't even cover; they're 1-6 vs spread in last seven games. Niners are 2-5 on road, scoring one TD on 18 drives in last two road games. NFC West home dogs are 0-4 vs spread in division games. Under is 5-2-1 in Rams' last eight games, 3-0 in San Francisco's last three contests.

Falcons (9-5) @ Vikings (9-5)

Minnesota won four in row, six of last seven games, averaging 7.4+ yards/pass in last three, as Jackson's return under center has been success; if they win out, can still get a first-round bye, which is obviously huge. Falcons need to win to keep hopes alive to make playoffs- they're 3-4 on road, but 5-2 in last seven games SU, losing 24-20 to Denver, 29-25 at Sants. Over is 8-3 in Minnesota's last eleven games, 2-5 in Atlanta's road games. NFC South road dogs are 8-4 vs the spread; NFC North home favorites are 9-5 against the number.

Saints (7-7) @ Lions (0-14)

New Orleans had three extra days to get ready for this, trying to avoid being Lions' first victim of year. Bush is done for year, though. Saints are 2-6 away from home, winning by 10 at Arrowhead, by 5 in London vs Chargers on neutral field. Detroit is 1-6 vs spread at home- bad teams don't have home field edge, losing at home by 23-27-8-24-18-37-4 points. Over is 5-1-1 in Saints' last seven games, 7-1-1 in Detroit's last nine. NFC South road favorites are 4-1 vs spread, NFC North road dogs are 2-7. Lions are 1-6 as a home dog this season.

Panthers (11-3) @ Giants (11-3)

Carolina won three in row, seven of last eight games; Giants lost last two, with one offensive TD on last 20 drives, so pressure here squarely on Big Blue, as winner here gets home field throughout NFC playoffs. Since its bye, Carolina has run ball for average of 189.3 ypg, so they're well-suited for a possible bad weather game. You don't think of Panthers as offensive team, but they've scored 28+ points in last five games. Giants ran ball for 88.8 ypg their last four games- they need Jacobs back. NFC road dogs are 8-4 against spread.

Jets (9-5) @ Seahawks (3-11)

Jets were headed to third straight loss a week ago, before defense scored TD with 1:54 left to keep then in 3-way tie for first in AFC East; they're 0-3 on west coast, and facing Seahawks in Holmgren's last home game. Hawks snapped 6-game skid last week, in game they trailed 17-7 at half; they're 1-6 at home, losing last three home games by 6-3-3 points. AFC East road favorites are 3-5 vs spread out of division; NFC West dogs are 11-18, 5-7 at home. Over is 9-2-1 in Jets' laat dozen games. Jets and Miami can't look ahead to Week 17 meeting.

Texans (7-7) @ Raiders (3-11)

Houston on four-game win streak, with last two wins by combined total of four points; they're 2-5 on the road, winning 16-6 at Cleveland, 24-21 at Packers. Oakland lost six of seven at home, beating Jets- their home losses are by 27-10-24-11-7-23 points. Texans are 2-3 vs spread as favorite; Raiders are 5-8 as dog, 1-5 at home. AFC South road favorites are 6-3 vs spread; AFC West dogs are 10-13, 2-6 at home. Last four Texan games stayed under total, as did nine of the last ten Raider games. Oakland is 10 for last 38 on third down.

Bills (6-8) @ Broncos (8-6)

Buffalo gets starter Edwards back at QB here, they've lost three in row, eight of last ten after 4-0 start, losing the game last week in Swamp on colossal blunder, which put Jauron's job in jeopardy. Bills are on road for fourth time in last five weeks, counting their "home" game in Toronto. Denver is 1-3 in last four home tilts, 0-6 vs spread as a home favorite- their home wins this season are by 1-2-3-7 points. AFC East road dogs are 7-3 vs spread. AFC West home faves are 2-7. Four of last five Denver games stayed under the total. Broncos clinch AFC West if they win.

Chargers (6-8) @ Buccaneers (9-5)

Not sure how much of distraction Kiffin's announcing his departure to Tennessee is; Bucs lost the last two games, giving up 299-175 rushing yards, so their defense has issues, but at home, Bucs are 6-0, winning by 15-9-24-10-6-3 points. Chargers can still make playoffs, but they need win here, and Buffalo to upset Denver Five of six Tampa home games stayed under total, as have five of last six San Diego games. AFC West road dogs are 8-7 vs spread; NFC South home favorites are 9-5. Garcia sat out last week; unsure of status here.

Packers (5-9) @ Bears (8-6)

Chicago won three of last four games, has extra prep time after beating Saints Thursday; they'll be out to avenge a 37-3 loss at Lambeau in Week 11, when Pack had 200 rushing yards, but thats last game Green Bay won. Packers lost last four games, giving up average of 32.3 ppg- opponents scored 17 TDs on 44 drives in last four Packer games. Five of seven Chicago home games went over total; faves are 7-4 vs spread in NFC North games this season. Check weather if you are interested in investing in total; can get dicey on Lake Michigan.

[Tommy]

NFL Week 16 Betting Trends


Saturday, December 20th, 2008

Baltimore at Dallas, 8:15 ET NFL
Baltimore: 1-5 ATS off home loss
Dallas: 18-6 Over off ATS win


Sunday, December 21st

Pittsburgh at Tennessee, 1:00 ET
Pittsburgh: 9-1 Under Away off division road win
Tennessee: 16-3 ATS as a home favorite of 3 points or less

Miami at Kansas City, 1:00 ET
Miami: 0-8 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points
Kansas City: 6-0 Over after being outgained by 100+ total yards

Arizona at New England, 1:00 ET
Arizona: 20-6 Over as road underdog
New England: 6-0 Over off DD road win

San Diego at Tampa Bay, 1:00 ET
San Diego: 5-1 Under off BB Division games
Tampa Bay: 5-1 ATS after a loss by 3 or less points

Cincinnati at Cleveland, 1:00 ET
Cincinnati: 1-9 ATS vs. AFC
Cleveland: n/a

San Francisco at St. Louis, 1:00 ET
San Francisco: 5-1 ATS 2nd half of season
St. Louis: 2-9 ATS vs. division

New Orleans at Detroit, 1:00 ET
New Orleans: 6-0 ATS after a loss by 6 or less points
Detroit: 1-8 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points

NY Jets at Seattle, 4:05 ET
NY Jets: 10-2 ATS Away 2nd half of season
Seattle: 16-38 ATS off division win

Houston at Oakland, 4:05 ET
Houston: 0-7 ATS Away off SU win as home dog
Oakland: 6-0 Under if the total is between 42.5 and 49

Buffalo at Denver, 4:05 ET
Buffalo: 1-5 ATS off road game
Denver: 22-10 Over off ATS loss

Philadelphia at Washington, 4:15 ET
Philadelphia: 10-5 ATS at Washington
Washington: 9-0-1 Under L10 games

Atlanta at Minnesota, 4:15 ET
Atlanta: 7-0 Under off home win
Minnesota: 16-4 Under as a home favorite of 3 points or less

Carolina at NY Giants, 8:15 ET NBC
Carolina: 10-4 Under off BB DD wins
NY Giants: 8-2 ATS vs. NFC


Monday, December 22nd

Green Bay at Chicago, 8:30 ET ESPN
Green Bay: 9-1 ATS off non-conference game
Chicago: 17-4 Over as home favorite