[Tommy]

NFL Week 17, Sunday, December 28

Raiders (4-11) @ Buccaneers (9-6)

Bucs need win, then need Eagles to beat Dallas to make playoffs; they've lost last three games, allowing 31 ppg (nine TDs on 32 drives)- they're 6-1 at home, 4-3 as home favorite, after losing to Chargers last week. Kiffin's leaving for Tennessee cannot be helping Buc defense. Oakland is 4-3 as road dog, losing away games by 1-31-19-2-27 points. NFC South home favorites are 9-6 vs spread; AFC West road dogs are 9-7. Under is 10-1 in last 11 Oakland games. Bucs' only Super Bowl win came against Raiders, Gruden's former team.

Lions (0-15) @ Packers (5-10)

Detroit will be the first-ever 0-16 NFL team if they lose to Packer team that lost in OT at Chicago late Monday night, their fifth loss in row. Packers beat Detroit 48-25 in Week 2 (-3), blowing 21-3 halftime lead, then scoring last 24 points of game. Detroit covered its last five road games, losing by 2-7-4-9-10 points. Lions gave up 31+ points in six of last seven games- they've scored only six TDs on their last 52 drives in last six games. Six of last eight Detroit games went over the total. NFC North favorites are 7-4 vs spread, 4-3 at home.

Cowboys (9-6) @ Eagles (8-6-1)

Philly is eliminated if Tampa beat the Raiders in 1:00 game, but hatred level for Dallas is high enough that they will still give top effort here. Cowboys won first meeting 41-37 in Week 2 (-6.5), as Romo averaged 10.4 yds/pass attempt, but this is December and Dallas is once again struggling, losing two of last three games- they're 1-4 in last five road games, losing to Cards, Rams, Steelers, Giants and beating Redskins 14-10. Philly had three-game win streak snapped last week by Redskins- they're 5-2 at home, winning by 35-9-13-28-20 pts.

Giants (12-3) @ Vikings (9-6)

Big Blue clinched home field thru NFC playoffs last week with dramatic OT win, ending two-game skid. Vikes need win to clinch NFC North title after fumbling seven times in 24-17 home loss to Falcons. No way will Giants have same intensity as last week, when they ran ball for 301 yards in dramatic setting-- key point is going to be how long Coughlin plays key starters (especially Jacobs, the key to their ground game). Minnesota won five of its last six at home. NFC North home favorites are 5-6 vs spread out of division; NFC East road underdogs are 0-3.

Bears (9-6) @ Texans (7-8)

Chicago needs win and Minnesota loss to win NFC North; Bears won last three games, but lost three of last four on road, with only win at lowly St Louis. Chicago failed to cover its last three tries as an underdog. Houston had won four in row before bad loss in Oakland last week; they won five of last six at home after they blew home opener to Colts. Last five Houston games stayed under the total, as did five of last seven Chicago games. NFC North road underdogs are 10-5 vs spread out of the division; AFC South home favorites are 5-12.

Panthers (10-5) @ Saints (8-7)

Carolina needs win to clinch its divsion and get first-round bye; Saints are trying for winning season, and to get Brees 5,000-yard passing season. Panthers crushed New Orleans 30-7 in first meeting (-3), outscoring Saints 17-0 in second half. This is the first NFC South divisional game this year where road team is favored- New Orleans is 5-1 in Superdome, losing only to Vikings- their home wins are by 4-14-31-22-4 points. Over is 6-1-1 in Saints' last eight games, 5-1 in last six Carolina games. Panthers get a week off if they win this game.

Rams (2-13) @ Falcons (10-5)

Atlanta wins division, gets first round bye if they win here and Saints upset Carolina; Falcons won four of last five games, but their last four games were all decided by seven points or less. Rams lost last nine games, are 2-5 as road dog this season, tanking in most games, with road losses by 35-24-44-19-24 points. Falcons are 4-2 vs spread as favorite this season. In their last five non-division tilts, Rams allowed an average of 175.6 rushing yards/game, simply pathetic. NFC West road dogs are 6-12 vs spread; NFC South home faves, 9-6.

Chiefs (2-13) @ Bengals (3-11-1)

Cincinnati won its last two games, giving up one TD on 21 possessions- they were favored in three of first four games this season, but lost all three SU, and haven't been favored in any game since. Chiefs lost last three games, all by seven or less points; they covered three of last four games, also covered their last four games on foreign soil, with road losses by 7-24-34-4-1-7 points. AFC North home favorites are 5-5 vs spread in its non-divisional games. AFC West road dogs are 9-7 vs spread. Last three Bengal games stayed under total.

Jaguars (5-10) @ Ravens (10-5)

Baltimore makes playoffs with a win here; they won four of last five games, are 4-1 as home favorite, winning at home by 7-18-19-29-14 points (lost at home to Titans and Steelers). Jaguars fired personnel guy (former NFL QB) Harris, making him prime scapegoat for dreadful season- they lost seven of last nine games, are 2-2 as road dog- only three of their ten losses are by more than ten points. AFC North home favorites are 5-5 vs spread outside its division; AFC South road dogs are 6-3. Six of Ravens' seven road games stayed under.

Titans (13-2) @ Colts (11-4)

Indy won its last eight games, but with playoff game at AFC West champ next week, Dungy is likely to sit out many starters, maybe even Manning, which would explain Titans being road favorite here. Tennessee clinched home field through playoffs last week, but Fisher has said he'll keep playing hard, and he has next week off to rest. Colts scored 35-31-31 points in last three games vs terrible teams (Bengals-Lions-Jaguars)- they're 2-1 as underdog this year, 5-2 at home, winning last five. Titans are 5-1 against spread as a road favorite.

Browns (4-11) @ Steelers (11-4)

Pittsburgh struggled last two weeks, scoring 13-14 points (three TDs/23 drives); they're 5-2 at home, winning by 21-3-1-17-7 points (3-4 as home favorite). Steelers beat Browns 10-6 in Week 2 (-6), forcing the Browns to go 3/out five times on nine drives. Browns have three QBs hurt, so newly-acquired Gradkowski could get a start, or they could use Cribbs at QB and run Wildcat. Cleveland lost its last five games, seven of last eight; they're 4-3 as road dog, losing away games by 18-3-19-20 pts. Overall, they covered two of last eight games.

Dolphins (10-5) @ Jets (9-6)

Miami clinches AFC East with win; they won four in row, eight of last nine games, winning 38-31 in coldest game in franchise history at Kansas City last week. Pennington is returning to Swamp to face his old former team that beat Miami 20-14 (+3) in season opener. Jets lost three of last four games; vultures are out, call for head of Mangini if Jets lose here. Gang Green makes playoffs if they win and either Ravens/Patriots lose- good luck. AFC East home favorites are 1-7 against the spread. Seven of last nine Miami games stayed under total.

Patriots (10-5) @ Bills (7-8)

New England needs win, lot of help to get in playoffs; they won last three games, scoring average of 40 ppg (they scored 13 TDs on last 31 drives). Pats beat Buffalo 20-10 (-3.5) in first meeting, outrushing Bills 144-60, converting 11-18 on third down, and voercoming 9-yard deficit in starting field position. Bills lost seven of last nine games- they lost last three games in Buffalo, by 9-2-7 points. Underdogs are 8-2 vs spread in AFC East games, 1-1 at home. Last six New England games all went over the total. Patriots ran ball for 277-183 yards in their last two games, drubbing Raiders, Cardinals.

Seahawks (4-11) @ Cardinals (8-7)

Arizona has first home playoff tilt in desert next week, but they've lost four of last five games, and lost big in last two, trailing 28-0/31-0 at half, so they need sharp effort to ready for next week's game, against either Carolina/Atlanta. Seattle won its last two games- they lost 26-20 at home in first meeting vs Arizona, a game Redbirds outgained Seattle 458-196. Four of Seattle's last five losses are by six points or less- they're 3-3 as road dog, with road losses by 24-38- 10-2-25 points (won at 49ers, Rams). Over is 9-3 in last 12 Card games.

Redskins (8-7) @ 49ers (6-9)

Niners are 4-3 under Singletary, but lets face it; they trailed Rams 16-3 with 5:00 left last week, before St Louis snatched defeat from jaws of victory; one thing for sure, 49er defense is much better lately, allowing average of 11.8 ppg in last four games (five TDs allowed on opponents' last 40 drives). Washington lost five of last seven games, snapping its three-game skid by upsetting Philly last week. Redskins are 4-3 on road, losing 24-10/20-13 on last couple road trips. Under is 10-0-1 in Washington's last 11 games, 3-1 in 49ers' last four.

Broncos (8-7) @ Chargers (7-8)

Winner here gets AFC West title, as Denver lost last two games, are 5-7 since 3-0 start- they gave up 30-30 points to Panthers/Bills last two games- they've lost field position battle in seven of last nine games. Chargers won last three games to rise from dead, scoring 34-22-41 points (10 TDs on last 34 drives). First meeting was the game when Denver got inadvertant whistle that kept clinching sack/fumble from counting, allowing Broncos to escape with 39-38 win. Rivers averaged 11.7 yards/pass attempt in first meeting, as they rallied from 31-17 halftime deficit to take lead, before Broncos won it late.

[Tommy]

NFL Week 17 Trends, Sunday, December 28th

Oakland at Tampa Bay, 1:00 ET
Oakland: 0-7 ATS vs. NFC
Tampa Bay: 18-6 Under off DD home loss

Detroit at Green Bay, 1:00 ET
Detroit: 19-8 Over off BB losses
Green Bay: 5-0 ATS vs. Detroit

NY Giants at Minnesota, 1:00 ET
NY Giants: 5-1 ATS off home win
Minnesota: 18-35 ATS off SU loss as favorite

Carolina at New Orleans, 1:00 ET
Carolina: 8-2 Over after allowing 450+ total yards
New Orleans: 6-0 ATS off road game

St. Louis at Atlanta, 1:00 ET
St. Louis: 9-2 Over at Atlanta
Atlanta: 0-7 ATS off BB SU wins

New England at Buffalo, 1:00 ET
New England: 10-2 ATS as a road favorite of 7 points or less
Buffalo: 5-1 Over off SU win as road underdog

Cleveland at Pittsburgh, 1:00 ET
Cleveland: 1-8 ATS off DD loss as favorite
Pittsburgh: 8-3 Over vs. conference

Kansas City at Cincinnati, 1:00 ET
Kansas City: 9-2 ATS Away vs. conference
Cincinnati: 2-9 ATS vs. conference

Jacksonville at Baltimore, 4:15 ET
Jacksonville: 4-11 ATS this season
Baltimore: 11-4 ATS this season

Tennessee at Indianapolis, 4:15 ET
Tennessee: 4-0 ATS in dome games
Indianapolis: 10-23 ATS last 2 weeks of the regular season

Dallas at Philadelphia, 4:15 ET
Dallas: 8-0 ATS if the line is +3 to -3
Philadelphia: 14-5 Under as home favorite

Miami at NY Jets, 4:15 ET
Miami: 49-72 ATS vs. division
NY Jets: 9-2 Over after scoring 14 points or less

Seattle at Arizona, 4:15 ET
Seattle: 0-6 ATS Away off DD home win
Arizona: 6-0 ATS at home off TO margin of -2 or worse

Chicago at Houston, 4:15 ET
Chicago: n/a
Houston: 6-1 Over off SU loss

Washington at San Francisco, 4:15 ET
Washington: 10-0-1 Under L11 games
San Francisco: 7-16 ATS vs. NFC

Denver at San Diego, 8:15 ET NBC
Denver: 3-14 ATS vs. division
San Diego: 9-2 ATS off BB SU wins