[Tommy]

2009 NFL Wild Card

Saturday, January 3

Falcons (11-5) @ Cardinals (9-7)

Rookie QB, rookie coach, terrific run game for visitor, against high-powered offense of hosts, a perennial loser hosting its first playoff game since 1947 (they've won one playoff game since then, 10 years ago). Cardinals jogged in lame NFC West, but five of their seven losses were in EST- they went 6-2 at home, losing to Vikes, Giants. Falcons are 4-4 on road, winning three of last four- they've won three in row, five of last six overall, but did need late rally to beat Rams last week, when game had real meaning for Atlanta. Fascinating game, I am prejudiced being Ram fan, but think Warner's Redbirds are the side.

Colts (12-4) @ Chargers (8-8)

Both teams are very hot, with Chargers needing to win last four games to back into AFC West title at 8-8. Colts were 3-4 at one time and haven't lost since, as Manning's knee has gotten stronger as year went on, San Diego beat Colts in playoff game at Indy a year ago, closing down RCA Dome, even with Rivers having bum knee and Tomlinson/Gates hurt. Worth noting that last four times teams met in playoffs with this big a difference in record, the better record was 3-1 in those games, but since 1975, home underdogs have covered nine of 11 in Wild Card round. 8-8 teams are 2-7 in the first round, over last 36 yrs.

[Tommy]

NFL Trends Saturday, January 3rd, 2009

NFC Playoffs
Wild Card Round
TV: NBC
Atlanta at Arizona, 4:30 ET

Atlanta:
0-8 ATS off BB SU wins
19-30 ATS after a win by 6 or less points

Arizona:
12-4 Over as an underdog
7-1 Over in home games


AFC Playoffs
Wild Card Round
TV: NBC
Indianapolis at San Diego, 8:00 ET

Indianapolis:
6-1 Under if the total is 49.5 or higher
4-10 ATS vs. San Diego

San Diego:
19-8 ATS vs. conference
6-0 ATS at home off SU win