[Tommy]

NFL Divisional Playoffs

Saturday, January 10

Ravens @ Titans

Kerry Collins is definitely Comeback Player of Year, but now he faces demons of his past- he had four INT, passer rating of 7 in Super Bowl XXXV loss to Ravens. Eight years later, in his biggest game since, here they are again. Tennessee (-1) won 13-10 at Baltimore way back in Week 4, in slugfest where Titans had 18-yard edge in field position; four of nine Titan drives started in Raven territory. Baltimore was 2-3 when they lost the week after that game, but is 10-2 since, winning last three games- in their last seven games, only Dallas scored more than 13 points against them.

Cardinals @ Panthers

Five of Arizona's seven losses came in eastern time zone; they lost 27-23 (+4.5) in Charlotte in Week 8, in game Cards led 10-3 at half- short pass to Smith turned into 65-yard TD that turned tide in game. Warner was 36-51/375 passes, but Arizona had two enpty red zone trips (three TDs, FG on six RZ trips) that turned out to be the difference. Carolina is 8-0 at home, and had the bye to rest injured guys; they're 5-2-1 as home favorites. Redbirds are 2-5 vs spread as underdog. Hamstring of WR Boldin is key for Arizona's offense- he's already got screws in his face from Week 4 broken cheekbome.

Sunday, January 11

Eagles @ Giants

Road team won both series meetings in this divisional rivalry; Giants (+3) won first game 36-31, running ball for 219 yards; in rematch, Iggles (+6.5) won 20-14 in Week 14, holding Big Blue without an offensive TD for 59:00 (Giants scored TD on blocked FG). McNabb wasn't sacked in either game. Much was made of Eagles double-teaming Burress 75% of time in first meeting; when he didn't play in next game, that freed up extra defender to stop run (Giants had 88 rushing yards in rematch). Philly won five of last six games since 36-7 loss in Baltimore when Kolb played QB in second half. Lot of familiarity here.

Chargers @ Steelers

Health of Big Ben huge concern for Steelers, who won six of last seven games, holding all six victims to 13 points or less. Third concussion (not counting the motorcycle accident) has to be a red flag. San Diego (+4.5) lost 11-10 at Heinz in Week 11, weird game where Steelers outgained Bolts 410-213, were +2 in TOs, but didn't score TD on nine drives, kicking two FGs on three red zone visits (also had fumble return for TD nullified on last play of the game). Pitt had 13 penalties in that game, Chargers two. Sproles has turned into capable replacement for Tomlinson; interesting to see how he bounces back after 328 total yards (third best in playoff history) in last week's overtime win.

[Tommy]

Baltimore at Tennessee, 4:30 ET

Baltimore:
6-1 Over as road underdog
2-5 ATS vs. AFC South

Tennessee:
16-3 ATS as home favorite of 3pts or less
4-0 ATS vs. AFC North


Arizona at Carolina, 8:00 ET

Arizona:
12-5 Over this season
12-4 Over as an underdog

Carolina:
60-39 ATS off ATS loss
6-3 ATS as favorite


Philadelphia at NY Giants, 1:00 ET

Philadelphia:
12-3 ATS as an underdog
12-3 Over as an underdog

NY Giants:
5-0 ATS in playoff games
6-0 ATS revenging loss as favorite


San Diego at Pittsburgh, 4:30 ET

San Diego:
10-2 ATS off BB ATS wins
11-2 ATS off BB SU wins

Pittsburgh:
2-10 ATS after scoring 30+ points last game
14-5 Over at home vs. AFC