[Tommy]

Monday Night NFL Football

October 19, 2009

Denver Broncos @ San Diego Chargers 8:35 ET

Current Odds: Chargers -3½ | Total 44

Huge game for San Diego, which falls three games behind surprising Denver in AFC West if they lose here.

Broncos lost last three visits here, 48-20/23-3/52-21, but are on serious roll in '09, winning all five games, three in game's last minute. They were underdog in three of five wins.

Banged-up Chargers have yet to be ahead at the half; they gave up 31-38 points in their losses, 20-13 in wins- they're rumored to be shopping Shawne Merriman before next week's trade deadline.

Bolts are 1-2 as favorite in '09. All five Denver games stayed under total. Both San Diego wins stayed under total; their two losses both went over.

[Tommy]

- Denver is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games on the road.
- Denver is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games on the road.
- San Diego is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Denver.
- San Diego is 5-0-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Denver.

DENVER: 0-6 ATS after a win by 3 or less points.

SAN DIEGO: 4-0 ATS vs. Denver.

Head-to-Head Series History

SAN DIEGO is 4-0 against the spread versus DENVER over the last 3 seasons.

SAN DIEGO is 3-1 straight up against DENVER over the last 3 seasons.

3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons.

[Tommy]

In a crucial early-season NFL wagering affair, the Denver Broncos (5-0, 5-0 ATS) will put their perfect season on the line when they invade Qualcomm Stadium to tangle with the San Diego Chargers (2-2, 1-3 ATS).

Should Denver win this game, it will open up a commanding 3.5-game lead in the AFC West, while a victory for San Diego will considerably narrow the gap about a third of the way through the season.

After one week of play, many thought the Broncos were the luckiest and most undeserving 1-0 team in the league. That win in Cincinnati looks all the more impressive now that the Bengals sit atop the AFC North. Then Denver feasted on a pair of bottom-feeders in the NFL and was called a soft 3-0.

Dallas came to town and walked away with a 17-10 defeat, but still, no one believed in the Broncos. However, when K Matt Prater's 41-yard field goal sailed through the uprights in overtime last weekend against the Patriots, Denver walked off the field feeling like it might have the best team in the conference, if not the entire NFL.

Little did anyone know that QB Kyle Orton might have been the better quarterback in the Orton/Cutler flip-flop in the offseason. Last week, the Purdue product went 35/48 for 330 yards with two touchdowns and a pick to lead the Broncos to victory. It had to have been a sweet moment for HC Josh McDaniel, who was the offensive coordinator in New England before coming to the Mile High City.

The Chargers were off from NFL wagering action in Week 5, giving them plenty of time to lick their wounds from their 38-28 beating suffered in Pittsburgh two Sunday nights ago.

HC Norv Turner had to be focused on his rushing attack, which has surprisingly been the worst in the NFL this year.

San Diego is only averaging 53.8 yards per game on the ground, easily the lowest number in the league, and a lot of it is thanks to the health of superstar RB LaDainian Tomlinson. LT only has a total of 70 rushing yards this year.

No one has reached the 100-yard plateau on the season for the Bolts, making them the only team in the NFL that can say that.

That's why a lot of people are talking up QB Philip Rivers for the MVP award should the Chargers make the playoffs. Through four games, the former first round draft pick is leading the leagues #2 passing game, which averages 295.5 yards per game. In spite of the fact that he hasn't had a rushing game to work with, Rivers has led San Diego to at least 23 points in all four of its games this season.

Denver will be trying hard to erase the memories of a pitiful 52-21 loss at Qualcomm that ended its season in Week 17 last year. The oddsmakers still aren't totally buying what the Broncos are selling, as they are 3-point underdogs in the Monday nighter. The 'total' chimes in at 43.5.

No matter which side of this critical AFC West showdown you plan on taking, Bookmaker.com can book all of your action for you. Sign-up for an account today and get into the game!

[shantystar]

i am on chargers also tommy

[Tommy]

Originally Posted by shantystar

i am on chargers also tommy

BOL Shanty....

[Tommy]

spartan

DEN +3.0 (-110)

Analysis: Who would have thought that it would be Denver rolling into this big battle the undefeated team at the start of the season. Not me. But I am very, very impressed with what new head coach Josh McDaniels has done with this squad. Frankly I feel the wrong team is favored here. The last two weeks with wins over both the Cowboys and particularly the Patriots opened my eyes. I also like what Brian Dawkins adds to that secondary, they have not had a player back there like that since the Steve Atwater days. The Chargers are riding on reputation a lot in my view and I have never been a fan of Norv Turner. I realize the Chargers are coming off a bye week but I still am not sold that it is going to be a real factor. Tomlinson is appearing to be a shell of himself and Sproles is an electric special teams guŽy but he is no every down back. I honestly feel we are getting points with the superior ball club. Kyle Orton manages the game and does not make critical mistakes, McDaniels saw he was the guy he wanted and took a chance on him. I'd say he is being proven right.