[Tommy]

Thursday Night NFL Football

December 10, 2009

Pittsburgh Steelers (6-6) @ Cleveland Browns (1-11) 8:20 ET

Current Odds at 5Dimes: Steelers -9½ | Total 32½

Pittsburgh lost last four games, last three all by three points; they're 2-4 on road, winning 28-10 at Denver (-1), 28-20 at Detroit (-10.5). Steelers are 3-8 vs spread as favorite, 1-4 on road. Cleveland (+14) lost 27-14 at Heinz back in Week 6; Cribbs ran kick back for Brown TD; Steelers averaged 10.6 ypa, Browns 3.8 (completed just 9-26 passes). Browns lost last seven games but covered last three, losing by 1-9-7 points. In twelve games this year, Cleveland scored less than 10 points seven times. AFC North underdogs are 7-2 vs spread in divisional games, 3-1 at home.

[Tommy]

The Steelers look to take advantage of a Cleveland team that is 2-7-1 ATS in its last 10 home games.

Pittsburgh is 8-3-1 ATS in its last 12 games when playing Cleveland.

Pittsburgh is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Cleveland.

Cleveland is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games.

Cleveland is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games.

[Tommy]

PITTSBURGH is 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points this season.

PITTSBURGH is 80-51 ATS (+23.9 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History

CLEVELAND is 3-2 against the spread versus PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons.

PITTSBURGH is 5-0 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons.

3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

[Tommy]

THE SPORTS ADVISORS

Pittsburgh (6-6, 4-8 ATS) at Cleveland (1-11, 6-6 ATS)

The freefalling Steelers, looking nothing like the defending Super Bowl champions, look to halt a four-game losing skid and get back in the playoff hunt when they make the quick trip to Cleveland on a short week to face the division rival Browns.

Pittsburgh is coming off Sunday’s shocking 27-24 loss to Oakland as an overwhelming 14½-point home favorite, giving up the game-winning TD pass with nine seconds remaining. The Steelers, who are now four spots out of even earning a wild-card playoff bid, allowed the pedestrian Raiders offense to roll up 396 total yards and score 21 points in the final 8½ minutes. Mike Tomlin’s troops have lost four in a row (1-3 ATS) by a total of 15 points, the last three defeats being three-point setbacks, and they had a fourth-quarter lead in all four games.

Cleveland rallied from a 27-7 fourth-quarter deficit to San Diego on Sunday but eventually fell short 30-23, though it managed to cover as a heavy 13½-point home underdog for its third straight ATS win. It was just the second time all season that the Browns scored more than 20 points, and they have now lost seven in a row (4-3 ATS).

Although Pittsburgh’s vaunted defense has surrendered 27, 20 and 27 points the last three weeks to sub-par offenses (Kansas City, Baltimore and Oakland), the Steelers are still allowing just 297.3 total ypg, which still ranks fifth in the NFL. Pittsburgh is also still in the top half of the league in offense, averaging 22.7 ppg (14th), 374.8 total yards per game (7th) and 258 passing ypg (10th).

Cleveland ranks dead last in total offense (242.4 ypg) and 30th in scoring (12.1 ppg), and the Browns are also last in total defense, allowing a whopping 400.2 ypg, and 27th in scoring defense (25.8 ppg).
Pittsburgh has won the last dozen meetings in this rivalry (8-3-1 ATS), including a 27-14 home victory Oct. 18, though the Browns narrowly cashed as a 14-point pup. The Steelers are 4-1-1 ATS on their last six trips to Cleveland, and Pittsburgh has been the favorite in the last 11 contests, going 7-3-1 ATS.

Along with their current 1-3 ATS purge, the Steelers are on pointspread skids of 4-9 overall, 2-6 on the road, 0-5 against losing teams, 3-9 as a favorite and 1-6 as a road chalk. The lone bright spot: a 4-1 ATS mark in their last five Thursday games.

The Browns have dropped 17 of their last 18 regular-season games (6-11-1 ATS) and are on pointspread slides of 2-7-1 at home, 1-4 in December and 3-7 when catching double digits, but they still sport positive ATS runs of 5-1 against AFC foes, 4-1 after a spread-cover and 8-2-1 as an underdog of 3½ to 10 points.

The over for Pittsburgh is on a bundle of tears, including 7-3 overall, 4-1 on the highway, 4-0 against losing teams, 5-0 after a SU loss, 5-1 after a non-cover and 19-7 against AFC foes. The over is also 6-2-1 in the last nine meetings in this rivalry. However, for Cleveland, the under is on streaks of 9-2-1 in December, 5-2 in the AFC North and 7-3 in AFC action.

Finally, the total has stayed low in all six Thursday contests this season.

ATS ADVANTAGE: PITTSBURGH

[Tommy]

The weather forecast in Cleveland is suppose to be brutal tonight. 25-30 MPH wind gusts and a wind chill of 0. Also a chance of snow.

[Tommy]

SPORTS WAGERS

CLEVELAND +10 over Pittsburgh

The Brownies played a prime time game four weeks ago when they hosted the Ravens and lost 16-0. They couldn’t move five yards and they couldn’t cross the 50-yard line the whole game. The score doesn’t look that bad when in fact it was, as the Brownies never stood a chance and they may as well been losing 50-0 because that’s the way it seemed. The point is that it was an embarrassing and humiliating showing and now they get a little shot at redemption. The problem is that the Steelers have been somewhat humiliated themselves over the past few weeks and that was topped off last Sunday when they were beaten at home by the Raiders as a 14½-point choice. The Steelers playoff lives are on the line but laying 10 road points on a short week cannot be recommended. At least the Brownies have shown a little life the past three weeks with decent showings in Detroit Cincinnati and last week at home to the Chargers. That’s three straight covers for Cleveland while the Steelers have lost outright to both Oakland and Kansas City and they’ve dropped four in a row. No way can a team that is dropping faster than Tiger Woods’ endorsements be recommended as a big favorite on the road. Losing is one thing but losing to the Chiefs and Raiders is about as bad as it gets and you can double that on a short week. If they can lose to Oakland at home and Kansas City they can most certainly lose this one as well and the 10 points is massive insurance.

Play: Cleveland +10 (Risking 2.12 units to win 2).