[wahook]

As we all know there are games that look too good to be true to the betting public. Hence "Trap" games. This anaylsis is based on my opinion, for what that's worth, previous games played, projections, betting public trends and what I read from this forum.

Week 1:

None in my opinion, maybe the GB@Det-3 game. Too early to tell.

Week 2:

Det-1 @Chi = W if you took Chi, L = if you took the "Trap" bet Det.

Atl @Sea-2 = W if you took Sea, L = if you took the "Trap" bet Atl.

Stl @Ariz-1.5 = L if you took Ariz, W = if you took the "Trap" bet Stl.

SD @Den-3 = Push

Week 3:

Atl @Buf-3 = L if you took Buf, W = if you took the "Trap" bet Atl.

NYG @SD-6.5 = W = if you took SD, L = if you took the "Trap" bet NYG.

KC @Den-3 = W = if you took Den, L = if you took the "Trap" bet KC.

Total record if you took all the "Trap" games = 4-2-1 (Ok)

I was going to write up and explanation for each individual game, but I'm at work and need to do some. Anyway this post is very open to debate dependent upon how you look at things. This is just my opinion. There may be other games out there that I never even thought about. Let me know.

wahook

[JRoz]

Week 1 Phi vs Atl seemed like a trap too

[wahook]

I could defeinitely see that as a maybe. I just think Vick at home on turf, he always does above average which could make up for Phillys overall talent.

[wahook]

Looking forward to this week.

Phil @KC-2.5

Sea @Wash-2

Dal @Oak-3

Maybe SF @Ariz-3

[Tommy]

There will be trap games all over the place. You have to find them and realize it. Which was pretty obvious during the Denver Monday night game which I pointed out. I havent looked at the card for Sunday yet but Im sure there will be 1 or 2. Its really seeing where the money is going or where the generral public is going and seeing how the books react to it.

[pwn3dyo]

surprisely, im 5-1 on the games you listed as trap bets. only one that got me was Det/CHI week 2. I had detroit.

[wahook]

pwn3dyo,

Congrats for picking up on them. I just remember back a couple years ago when I first started to gamble and looking at these lines saying. "ARE THEY STUPID". Well the're not! It's up to us to pick it up.

wahook

[Sportsrmylife]

This is an excellent thread wahook. I was in your shoes a few years ago saying to myself "that game looks too easy" and then losing my ass off.

As for the games you listed for this week, I totally agree with all of them. The KC game is down to KC -1.5. But I also have another possible trap game and would like your opinion on them.

Car -7.5 vs GB. I think that this is way too many points for a 1-2 team to be laying. If you think about the GB game vs TB, a missed Xpt, a missed 42 yrd FG and a terrible missed call on a fumble that would of given the pack the ball inside the TB 20 yard line. Now if the pack win that game by 3-7 points I see this line at Car -3 or less. But since the Pack have looked so bad, had Williams run all over them, I think that this line is inflated a bit too much.

Car has lost to NO and lost to Miami last week. Miami physically beat up Carolina on the ground rushing for 144 yards. I can see that the public has bailed on the packers and vegas has adjusted this line according to that. I don't have all the confidence in the world in the pack winning outright, but with more than a TD spread, I like the pack covering this one.

[wahook]

sportsrmylife,

You have to take Mr Monday night (Favre), especially with that many points. Smell trap??? I don't know. This is a hard one. (As they all are) I'm going to assume that the majority of the public money will be on GB. May be wrong. Anyone know?

wahook

[Sportsrmylife]

The other game that I am looking at is the Jags -4 vs Denver. Denver is coming off a nice ass kicking of the chiefs and beat SD the week before. The jags have a beat up team and barely beat a one armed team last week in overtime.

I like the line and the jags in this one. What are your thoughts?

[plato]

At least as of now, more bets on gb (60%), but early yet.



9:00P 233 Green Bay Packers
234 Carolina Panthers 5087
60%40%
50%50%
47%53%
74%26%
43
-7.5 43
-7.5-110 43
-8103 43
-7.5-110 43
-7.5-110 43
-8.5+100 43
-8-110 43
-8-110 43
-7.5-107

[Tommy]

Welcome to the forum plato Nice info man

[plato]

Thanks big, looks very nice here.

[monkey fight club]

I guess I don't sort of understand the whole "trap game" concept. If the books want the betting pubic to lay the same amount of money on each game why would they want to have all the money go on one side? Sure I see lines that look too good to be true but obviously there is somone else out there that must like the other side of that bet otherwise the line would fluctuate, right? Educate a bro please.

[Tommy]

Welcome to the forum Monkey. I think every book scews because they know where the sharp money is coming in and where the public money is coming so they change the lines according to this. Even though they might be getting heavy action on a certain team or maybe it is 50/50, they know the real deal of what is going on and try and skew the line to their advantage, to get action where they want, not by how the actual betting is being placed. A "trap game" is sorta like poker in a way, you have to call a books bluff if you will...... I will have more on my opinion on this in the morning, got to go to sleep lol.

[wahook]

Week 1:

None in my opinion, maybe the GB@Det-3 game. Too early to tell.

Week 2:

Det-1 @Chi = W if you took Chi, L = if you took the "Trap" bet Det.

Atl @Sea-2 = W if you took Sea, L = if you took the "Trap" bet Atl.

Stl @Ariz-1.5 = L if you took Ariz, W = if you took the "Trap" bet Stl.

SD @Den-3 = Push

Week 3:

Atl @Buf-3 = L = if you took Buf, W = if you took the "Trap" bet Atl.

NYG @SD-6.5 = W = if you took SD, L = if you took the "Trap" bet NYG.

KC @Den-3 = W = if you took Den, L = if you took the "Trap" bet KC.

Week 4:

Phil @KC-2.5 = L = if you took KC, W = if you took the "Trap" bet Phil.

Sea @Wash-2 = W= if you took Wash, L = if you took the "Trap' bet Sea.

Dal @Oak-3 = W = if you took Oak, L = if you took the "Trap" bet Dal.

SF @Ariz-3 = W = if you took Ariz, L = if you took the "Trap' bet SF.

Total record if you took all the "Trap" games = 7-3-1

I will post this thread each week. I will give us a starting point on games I think are "Traps". Also, would like others opinions and games they believe are "Traps".

GL,

wahook

[maniac_19_bg]

Not that I am an expert here, but it seems pretty straight foreward to me. In most of the games that you listed the team with minus points won. So the bookies were right to choose the team that has to start with points behind. If you continue to choose and post these games exactly where the team with the minus actually wins, i will be very happy to read your posts !


GL

[wahook]

maniac_19_bg,

When you look at a website that lists Percentages of what the "Betting Public" are laying their money on, you will see that it is heavily favored for the "underdog" or the team that the public thinks is a "shoe in" to win. This is a "Trap" bet. We are saying that you have to find these games. The books know what their doing. They're just hoping they don't take the big hit. This is the first time I am going to monitor them in this forum. Like I was saying, I remember back to couple of years ago when I saw these games and said "Holy Sh-t this is too good to be true". If you ever say this to yourself, take the opposite. (Not every game though)

GL

wahook