[Tommy]

NFL Football - Week 10

Sunday, November 14, 2010


Cincinnati Bengals (2-6) @ Indianapolis Colts (5-3) 1:00 ET

Odds: Colts -7 | Total 47

Short work week, short (2-hour) road trip for Cincy squad that’s lost its last five games, allowing average of 27 ppg. Indy won last six series games by average score of 35-19; Bengals’ last series was in ’97. Colts are 3-0 as home favorite this year, winning by 24-10-13 points Cincy is 1-3 on road in ’10, 0-2 as road dog, losing away games by 14-3-7 points (only win was in rain at Carolina)- they allowed 10-7 points in their only two wins. Since 2001, Colts are just 15-23 vs. spread in game following a loss, but they’re 2-0 in that role this year. In their last three games, Cincy opponents started eight of 35 drives in Bengal territory. Four of last five Bengal games went over total.


Houston Texans (4-4) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (4-4) 1:00 ET

Odds: Jaguars -2 | Total 49½

Texans allowed 31 ppg in last four games, have yet to hold opponent under 24 points this year. Jags are 4-0 if they score 24+ points, 0-4 if they don’t. Houston lost last three visits here by 37-17/30-27ot/23-18 scores, as home side won five of last six series games, with average total of 54.0. Texans lost three of last four games and trailed by 10 with 5:00 left in game they won- they’re 2-1 on road, with average total in those three games, 53.0. Houston is 8-4 in last 12 games as underdog of 3 or less points. Jags have only played two games decided by less than 10 points. Home favorites in divisional games are 6-14 vs spread in NFL this year. This is first time since Week 1 that Jacksonville is favored.


New York Jets (6-2) @ Cleveland Browns (3-5) 1:00 ET

Odds: Jets -3 | Total 38

Mangini faces his old team week after he beat mentor Belichick; he has few former Jets on his team now. Rex Ryan’s brother is Browns’ DC. Jets are 4-0 on road, with last two wins coming in dramatic fashion late in game. Red flag for Jets—no takeaways in last two games (-5 TO’s, still +5 for season). Browns beat Saints/Pats in last two games after 1-5 start; they’re 4-2-1 vs. spread as underdog this year. Since 2007, Browns are 10-6 as a home dog. Cleveland won three of four series games, with all four games decided by 7 or less points. Six of last seven Jet games, five of last six Cleveland games went over total. League-wide, home dogs are 13-10-3 vs. spread in non-divisional games.


Tennessee Titans (5-3) @ Miami Dolphins (5-3) 1:00 ET

Odds: Titans -2 | Total 43

Moss makes Tennessee debut for team that scored 31.5 ppg in last four games (3-1), but is missing top WR Britt (hamstring). Titans are 3-1 on road this year, losing only at San Diego after Britt/Young both got hurt- they’re 22-12-1 vs. spread in last 35 road games. Miami is woeful 16-41 vs spread in last 57 home games; they’re 0-3 at home this year, losing by 8-27-1 point, allowing 31.7 ppg. Tennessee scored 29+ points in all five wins; they’re 0-3 if they score less than 29. Miami has only five takeaways in last five games (-7), giving up three defensive TDs and a kick return for TD. Four of last five Titan games went over total; three of last four Miami games stayed under. Pennington getting first start of year for Miami.


Minnesota Vikings (3-5) @ Chicago Bears (5-3) 1:00 ET

Odds: Vikings -1 | Total 40½

Home side won six of last seven series games; Vikings are 1-8 in last nine visits here, losing in OT LY (last win here, 34-31 in ’07). Average total in last four series games, 62.3. Minnesota is 0-4 on road this year, losing by 5-9-4-10 points, giving up 28.3 ppg in last three away games (gave up seven TDs on 18 drives in last two). Both teams have already played five games decided by 5 or less points. Underdog is 6-1-1 vs. spread in Chicago games this year; Bears lost last two home games (Seattle/Redskins)- they’re 5-1 if they score 19+ points. Home teams are 16-21-1 vs. spread (23-15 SU) in divisional games so far this season. Five of last six Chicago games stayed under total; last five Minnesota games went over.


Detroit Lions (2-6) @ Buffalo Bills (0-8) 1:00 ET

Odds: Bills -2½ | Total 44

Detroit QB Stafford is out (shoulder); looks like 2nd-stringer Hill will get nod for improving Lion squad that lost last 24 road games SU but is 7-1 vs spread this year overall, covering last five games. Lions are 3-1 as road dog this year- they scored 44-37 points in their wins, scored 20+ in four of six losses. Winless Buffalo is favored after losing last three games by FG each; they’ve converted 32 of last 56 on 3rd down (57.1%), but turned ball over eight times (-5) in those games. Bills are 4-7 vs. spread in last 11 games as a home favorite. Home team won last four series games, with Lions losing last two visits here, 22-13/24-17. Last five Detroit games went over the total. Lions were only team to lose to 1-15 Rams LY.


Carolina Panthers (1-7) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-3) 1:00 ET

Odds: Bucs -7 | Total 37

NFC South home teams are 0-6 vs spread (2-4 SU) in divisional games this year. Carolina won six of last seven visits here, in series where road team is 8-4 in last 12 meetings. Tampa Bay (+3) won first meeting 20-7 in Charlotte back in Week 2, with three takeaways (+3) and four sacks. Panther QB Moore (shoulder) is out for year, so up to rookies Clausen/Pike to move ball enough to win battle for field position (-19/-8 in last two games). Bucs are 5-3 despite being dog in six of eight games; they’re 0-1-1 as favorite in ’10, winning those two games by 1-3 points- the win at Carolina is their only win this year by more than a FG. Six of last seven Panther games stayed under the total.


Kansas City Chiefs (5-3) @ Denver Broncos (2-6) 4:05 ET

Odds: Chiefs -1½ | Total 43

Chiefs’ 44-24 win here LY ended 0-8 skid at Invesco, in series where home side is still 12-3. KC is 1-3 on road, losing last three- their last two games both went OT. Four of their last seven games overall were decided by four or less points. Broncos lost last five games, allowing 34.5 ppg in last four; since starting LY 6-0, Denver is now 4-16 in last 20 games- they’ve given up 17 TDs on 45 drives over last four games, and allowed 14+ second half points in six of last seven games. Chiefs are 1-3 if they allow more than 14 points; they had 228+ rushing yards in three of last four games. This is just second time since 2007 that Chiefs are road favorite. Over is 6-2 in Denver games, 3-1 in Chiefs’ last four contests.


Dallas Cowboys (1-7) @ New York Giants (6-2) 4:15 ET

Odds: Giants -13½ | Total 45½

Woeful Dallas changed head coaches Monday; it means they’ve got new defensive guru but same offensive one, as Garrett is interim coach. Problem is, they’ve got same ragtag OL protecting 38-year old Kitna. Cowboys lost last five games, giving up 41-35-45 points in last three (!4 TDs on last 35 drives)- they’re 1-2 as road dog this year, with road losses by 6-3-38 points. Giants (+3) outrushed Pokes 200-35 three weeks ago in 41-35 road win; they’ve won five games in row (4-1 vs. spread), scoring 36 ppg in last four wins. Methodical Giants ran ball for 167-200-197 yards in last three games. Giants are 5-3 vs spread in last eight tries as double digit favorite. Last five Dallas games, last three Giant tilts all stayed under total.


St. Louis Rams (4-4) @ San Francisco 49ers (2-6) 4:15 ET

Odds: 49ers -6 | Total 38

Niners are 8-2 in last ten series games, winning six of last eight played here, but don’t see gritty Rams (6-1-1 vs. spread, only one loss by more than 4 points) as 6-point dog to disappointing 49er squad that’s using former 3rd-stringer Smith as starting QB. (Rams have three LBs who are former Buckeyes, just like Smith). SF is 2-6 despite being favored in six of first eight games; they’re 1-2 at home (only win 17-9 vs. Raiders), 2-4 vs. spread as favorite. Rams held four of last five opponents under 90 yards rushing, but Bradford still looking for first road win (0-3, scored 14-6-17 points (four TDs on 30 drives)). Lions are only team this season to score more than 17 points against the Rams. Six of eight St Louis games stayed under the total.


Seattle Seahawks (4-4) @ Arizona Cardinals (3-5) 4:15 ET

Odds: Cardinals -3½ | Total 41½

Seattle got outscored 74-10 in last two games, as numerous roster moves have failed to patch holes on both lines. Seahawks lost last four visits to desert, by 6-3-13-11 points, with average total in those games, 49.3. Arizona (+7) lost 22-10 at Seattle three weeks ago, turning ball over five times, completing just 12-33 passes, converting 2 of 12 on 3rd down. Seahawks are 1-3 on road under Carroll, 1-2 as road dog, losing by 17-17-30 points (won 23-20 at Chicago). Arizona is 0-3 since its bye, giving up 29 ppg; they’re 0-2-1 as favorite this year, 2-1 at home (all three games went over). Only once in last seven games have Cardinals averaged more than 5.2 yards/pass attempt. Six of last seven Arizona games went over the total.


New England Patriots (6-2) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (6-2) 8:20 ET

Odds: Steelers -4½ | Total 45

No team has run ball for more than 75 yards vs. Steelers this year, will be up to Brady to move ball thru air here, but only once in last five games have Pats averaged more than 5.7 yards/pass attempt, which isn’t very good- they miss deep threat Moss provided. You think of Pittsburgh as running team, but in last five games, they haven’t run ball for more than 121 yards; they hung on for dear life vs. Bengals Monday night when they couldn’t run out clock on ground. NE won four of last five visits here, but this is first time here since ’05. Pitt is 2-1 at home this year, 1-1 as home favorite; this is just second home game this year for Big Ben. Pats scored 14 points in both their losses. Over is 3-1 in last four Steeler games, 6-2 in Patriot games.


Odds from 5Dimes and subject to change. Info from Armadillo.

[Tommy]

My opinion picks for Week 10.

Bengals/Colts Under 47

Texans/Jags Over 49½

Jets -3

Dolphins +2

Bears +1

Lions/Bills Over 44

Bucs -7

Broncos +1.5

Cowboys/Giants (No opinion)

Rams +6

Cardinals -3½

Pats/Steelers Under 45

[Tommy]

1:00 PM
CINCINNATI vs. INDIANAPOLIS
Cincinnati is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Indianapolis
Cincinnati is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Indianapolis's last 6 games at home
Indianapolis is 18-2 SU in its last 20 games at home

1:00 PM
HOUSTON vs. JACKSONVILLE
Houston is 8-4 SU in its last 12 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Houston's last 9 games
Jacksonville is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Houston
Jacksonville is 5-11 ATS in its last 16 games when playing Houston

1:00 PM
CAROLINA vs. TAMPA BAY
Carolina is 11-4 SU in its last 15 games when playing Tampa Bay
Carolina is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 6 games when playing at home against Carolina
Tampa Bay is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Carolina

1:00 PM
DETROIT vs. BUFFALO
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Detroit's last 5 games when playing Buffalo
Detroit is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Buffalo is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Detroit
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Buffalo's last 6 games

1:00 PM
MINNESOTA vs. CHICAGO
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Minnesota's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Minnesota's last 7 games when playing Chicago
Chicago is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Minnesota
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Chicago's last 7 games when playing Minnesota

1:00 PM
NY JETS vs. CLEVELAND
NY Jets are 6-1 SU in their last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of the NY Jets last 7 games
Cleveland is 8-17 SU in its last 25 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Cleveland's last 6 games

1:00 PM
TENNESSEE vs. MIAMI
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Tennessee's last 5 games when playing Miami
Tennessee is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Miami is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games when playing Tennessee
Miami is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games at home

4:05 PM
KANSAS CITY vs. DENVER
Kansas City is 1-8 SU in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Denver
Kansas City is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Denver
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Denver's last 6 games when playing Kansas City
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Denver's last 5 games

4:15 PM
SEATTLE vs. ARIZONA
Seattle is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Arizona
Seattle is 4-8 SU in its last 12 games
Arizona is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games
Arizona is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games

4:15 PM
DALLAS vs. NY GIANTS
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Dallas's last 5 games
Dallas is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of the NY Giants last 5 games when playing Dallas
NY Giants are 8-3 SU in their last 11 games when playing at home against Dallas

4:15 PM
ST. LOUIS vs. SAN FRANCISCO
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of St. Louis's last 11 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of St. Louis's last 7 games when playing on the road against San Francisco
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of San Francisco's last 8 games when playing St. Louis
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of San Francisco's last 8 games at home

8:20 PM
NEW ENGLAND vs. PITTSBURGH
The total has gone OVER in 4 of New England's last 5 games on the road
New England is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 games when playing New England
Pittsburgh is 2-4-1 ATS in its last 7 games at home

[Tommy]

Sunday, Nov 14: NFL Week 10 Picks