[Tommy]

NFL Football - Week 11

Sunday, November 21, 2010


Oakland Raiders (5-4) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (6-3) 1:00 ET

Odds: Steelers -7 | Total 41½

Oakland upset Steelers as 10-point dogs here LY; they’re 3-2 in last five series games, splitting last four visits here. Raiders won last three games before bye, scoring 38.3 ppg, outscoring teams 67-20 in second half, running ball for 226 ypg; they’ve allowed only six TDs on 53 drives in last four games, forcing 26 3/outs. Pitt defense allowed 12 ppg in first five games (five TDs on 55 drives), 25.5 in last four (nine TDs/45 drives). Penalties don’t kill; in their 3-game win streak, Raiders have been penalized 36 times for 339 yards. Over is 5-2 in last seven Raider games, 4-1 in Steeler games since Big Ben came back.


Houston Texans (4-5) @ New York Jets (7-2) 1:00 ET

Odds: Jets -7 | Total 46

Horrific Houston defense allowed 30.8 ppg in 1-4 skid over last five games, allowing 18 TDs on last 49 drives; letting Jaguars go 64 yards on two plays in 0:08 to win game last week was ugly. Texans are 0-4 vs Jets, losing two visits here 29-7/26-11- they’re 1-3 as underdog this year, 0-2 on road. Jets won seven of last eight games, but last three wins are by 4-3-3 points; last week, they became first-ever team to win OT road games in consecutive weeks—they allowed 9-10 points in their two losses, so teams that beat them shut Sanchez down. Over is 7-1 in last eight Jet games, 6-3 in Houston games, 3-1 in their road tilts.


Baltimore Ravens (6-3) @ Carolina Panthers (1-8) 1:00 ET

Odds: Ravens -11 | Total 37

Baltimore had three extra days to prepare after tough loss in Atlanta last week; Carolina has three rookies at QB; Clausen had concussion next week, so Pike could get nod here, vs Raven defense that hasn’t been as good as past years, allowing 2+ TDs in six of last seven games. Ravens are 0-3 vs. Carolina, losing last two games by combined total of five points, but teams haven’t met since ’06. Seven of nine Baltimore games were decided by 7 or less points. Seven of eight Panther losses were by 10+ points. Under is 4-1 in Baltimore road games, 6-2 in last eight Panther games.


Washington Redskins (4-5) @ Tennessee Titans (5-4) 1:00 ET

Odds: Titans -7 | Total 44

Interesting to see how Skins respond on short week after Monday night debacle; they were first home team in NFL history to trail 28-0 in first quarter!!! Washington allowed 14 or less points in all four of its wins, 27+ in all five losses. Titan QB Collins (ankle) is out for few weeks, so if Young were to get hurt again, untested rookie Rusty Smith (played at FAU) would see first NFL action; either that, or they’d just run Wildcat the whole game. Redskins split only two visits here, with last one eight years ago. Over is 5-1 in Titans’ last six games, 3-1 in last four Washington games.


Detroit Lions (2-7) @ Dallas Cowboys (2-7) 1:00 ET

Odds: Cowboys -6 | Total 46

Detroit lost to 0-8 Buffalo last week, year after they lost to 0-7 Rams, but they’re still an amazing 8-1 vs spread this year, covering last six games- they’re 4-1 as road underdog, losing away games by 5-14-2-8-2 points (24-10 loss at Minnesota was their only non-cover this year). Cowboys looked like new team with their new coach last week, but with champ Saints visiting on Turkey Day next week, could a 2-7 team possibly look past this game? Dallas has still allowed average of 33.2 ppg in last six games. Cowboys won four of last five series games, with three of four wins by 10+ points; Lions actually split their last four visits here.


Green Bay Packers (6-3) @ Minnesota Vikings (3-6) 1:00 ET

Odds: Packers -3 | Total 44

Minnesota outrushed Pack 196-84 in first meeting, but lost 28-24 in Lambeau (+2.5), as Rodgers averaged 8.4 yards/pass attempt. Pack allowed only one TD on 21 drives (ten 3/outs) in two wins since then, and should be fresh coming off bye. Capers’ defense has 10 takeaways in last three games, while offense hasn’t turned it over in last two games (+7). Minnesota allowed 21+ points in last six games, losing three of last four (11 giveaways, -6), and they trailed by 14 with 5:00 left in the win. All four Green Bay road games stayed under total (average total, 30.5), but over is 5-0-1 in Vikings’ last six games (average total, 47.2).


Buffalo Bills (1-8) @ Cincinnati Bengals (2-7) 1:00 ET

Odds: Bengals -6 | Total 44

Buffalo is 9-0 in this series since losing playoff game in Queen City 22 years ago; they won last three visits here, by 13-16-10 points. Bengals lost last six games, and were favored in three of them; they’re 1-3 at home (beat Ravens 15-10), 1-3 as favorite, 1-1 at home- they’re 0-7 when they give up more than 10 points. Last four Buffalo games were all decided by 3 or less points, after they had lost previous four games by 10+ points each. Last three Buffalo games stayed under total. Average total in last three series games is 56.0. Not sure how you could justify laying 5.5 points with team that hasn’t won in seven weeks.


Cleveland Browns (3-6) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (5-4) 1:00 ET

Odds: Jaguars -2 | Total 44

Cleveland beat Jags in each of last two years, both by 23-17 scores; Browns won last three visits here, in series where road team won five of last six meetings. Improved Browns lost to 7-2 Jets in OT last week, after beating Saints/Patriots before that, but they’re just 1-3 on road, scoring 13.7 ppg in three losses. Jags won last two games- they scored 31+ points in last four wins, and are 0-4 when they score less than 24. Cleveland is 3-0 with positive turnover ratio, 0-3 without it. Jags won field position battle in seven of nine games, and found a way to win on last play last week. Over is 6-1 in Browns’ last seven games, 7-2 in Jaguar games this season.


Arizona Cardinals (3-6) @ Kansas City Chiefs (5-4) 1:00 ET

Odds: Chiefs -8 | Total 44

Chief coach Todd Haley vs team he helped get to Super Bowl as OC two years ago. Arizona is 0-4 since its bye, allowing 30.8 ppg (allowed nine TDs on 36 drives in last three games); they lost last four road games, by average score of 34-13- they had two TD lead with 5:00 left in last road game, but Favre bailed Vikings out. Chiefs are 4-0 at home (1-1 as home favorite) winning by 7-21-22-3 points. KC won four of last five series games; Redbirds are 0-3-1 here, losing by 24-10-49 points, but last visit was in ’02. Seven of last eight Cardinal games, four of last five Chief games went over.


Seattle Seahawks (5-4) @ New Orleans Saints (6-3) 4:05 ET

Odds: Saints -11 | Total 44

Seattle scored 14 or less points in its losses, 22+ in its wins; Saints held three or less foes to 10 or less points. Seahawk QB Hasselbeck expected to play with broken bone in left wrist. Hawks are 2-3 on road, with losses by 17-17-30 points; they’re 4-3 as an underdog, 2-2 on road. Saints should be fresh after bye; they outscored last four opponents 62-23 in second half, and allowed only one TD on 23 drives in last two games. NO is 3-5-1 vs. spread as favorite, 1-3-1 at home, with wins by 5-2-10 points. All four Seattle losses are by 17+ points. Teams split ten series meetings (2-2 here), with last meeting in ’07.


Atlanta Falcons (7-2) @ St. Louis Rams (4-5) 4:05 ET

Odds: Falcons -3 | Total 43

Atlanta won last three games, scoring 31.3 ppg (11 TDs on 29 drives); they’re 1-2 (0-3 vs. spread) when scoring less than 20 points (only win 16-14 over 49ers). St Louis won its last four home games, allowing 11.5 ppg (gave up four TDs on 45 drives), but offense is having trouble in second half (Rams outscored 66-23 in second half of last five games). Atlanta is 2-2 on road with two OT games; they’re 4-3 as favorites, 1-1 on road. Falcons lost last five visits here, with last win here in ’98, when Tony Banks was Rams’ QB. Last four Atlanta games went over total; under is 4-1 in Rams’ home games.


Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-3) @ San Francisco 49ers (3-6) 4:05 ET

Odds: 49ers -3½ | Total 41½

Home team won last seven series games, with Tampa Bay losing last eight visits here; Bucs are 1-11 on Candlestick Point, with only win vs 1-15 Niners back in 1980; teams split last six meetings, with average total of 31.5 in those six. Insertion of Troy Smith at QB has sparked 49ers, who won last two games, scoring 24-23 points, but fact is they’re just 5-24 on 3rd down in Smith’s two starts. Niners’ +6 turnover ratio (7-1) in last four games has been big help. Four of six Tampa wins have been by three or less points, as Freeman has proven to be clutch player (converted 13-23 on 3rd down in last two games). Over is 5-2 in Bucs’ last seven games.


Indianapolis Colts (6-3) @ New England Patriots (7-2) 4:15 ET

Odds: Patriots -4 | Total 49½

Indy won four of last five games, Patriots six of last seven. Colt offense is banged-up; their only offensive TD vs Bengals last week came on 25-yard drive after a fumble. Patriots are 4-0 at home (2-1-1 as home favorite), with three wins by 10+ points. Indy covered only Game as dog this year (L24-26 @ Philly, +3). Indy won five of last six series games, with last four all decided by 4 or less points; Colts won last two visits here (last visit in ’06), 40-21/27-20. Average total in last six series games is 54.3; over is 4-1 in Colt road games, 7-2 in New England games this year. Brady was held to 14 points in each of his losses. Colts allowed 24+ in four of five road games. Seems like these teams play in Week 10 every year.


New York Giants (6-3) @ Philadelphia Eagles (6-3) 8:25 ET

Odds: Eagles -3½ | Total 48

Big Blue was rolling along on 5-game win streak until Dallas upset them 33-20 last week, with 38-year old backup QB Kitna throwing for 14.1 yards/attempt. Eagles won four of last five games, as Vick is playing better than he ever has. Philly ran ball for 455 yards in last two games, gaining 994 yards; they’ve won field position battle in last four games. Giants offense has gained 497-487-480 total yards in last three games, even though they had two OL starters out last week. Philly won last four series games, three of which were in Swamp; Giants are 4-2 in last six visits here, but lost 40-17 in LY’s visits, only home win in last six series games.


Odds from 5Dimes and subject to change. Info from Armadillo.

[Tommy]

1:00 PM
BUFFALO vs. CINCINNATI
Buffalo is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Cincinnati
The total has gone UNDER in 14 of Buffalo's last 21 games
Cincinnati is 1-8 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Buffalo
Cincinnati is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Buffalo

1:00 PM
CLEVELAND vs. JACKSONVILLE
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Cleveland's last 5 games on the road
Cleveland is 3-12 SU in its last 15 games on the road
Jacksonville is 6-15 ATS in its last 21 games at home
Jacksonville is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games

1:00 PM
HOUSTON vs. NY JETS
Houston is 2-4-1 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
Houston is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 7 of the NY Jets last 8 games
NY Jets are 7-1 SU in their last 8 games

1:00 PM
WASHINGTON vs. TENNESSEE
Washington is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Tennessee
Washington is 6-15 SU in its last 21 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Tennessee's last 7 games at home
Tennessee is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Washington

1:00 PM
GREEN BAY vs. MINNESOTA
Green Bay is 13-5 SU in its last 18 games
Green Bay is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games when playing Minnesota
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Minnesota's last 10 games at home
Minnesota is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games

1:00 PM
DETROIT vs. DALLAS
Detroit is 4-7-2 ATS in its last 13 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Detroit's last 6 games on the road
Dallas is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Dallas's last 5 games

1:00 PM
BALTIMORE vs. CAROLINA
Baltimore is 3-5-2 ATS in its last 10 games on the road
Baltimore is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Carolina is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Carolina is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games at home

1:00 PM
OAKLAND vs. PITTSBURGH
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Oakland's last 7 games on the road
Oakland is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Pittsburgh is 14-4 SU in its last 18 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 5 games

1:00 PM
ARIZONA vs. KANSAS CITY
Arizona is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Arizona's last 8 games
Kansas City is 8-17 ATS in its last 25 games at home
Kansas City is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home

4:05 PM
SEATTLE vs. NEW ORLEANS
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Seattle's last 5 games when playing New Orleans
Seattle is 5-19 SU in its last 24 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New Orleans's last 5 games when playing Seattle
New Orleans is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Seattle

4:05 PM
TAMPA BAY vs. SAN FRANCISCO
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 6 games when playing San Francisco
Tampa Bay is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games on the road
San Francisco is 6-2-1 ATS in its last 9 games at home
San Francisco is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Tampa Bay

4:05 PM
ATLANTA vs. ST. LOUIS
Atlanta is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against St. Louis
Atlanta is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against St. Louis
The total has gone OVER in 4 of St. Louis's last 5 games when playing Atlanta
St. Louis is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home

4:15 PM
INDIANAPOLIS vs. NEW ENGLAND
Indianapolis is 7-15 SU in its last 22 games when playing New England
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Indianapolis's last 8 games on the road
New England is 15-7 SU in its last 22 games when playing Indianapolis
New England is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Indianapolis

8:20 PM
NY GIANTS vs. PHILADELPHIA
NY Giants are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games when playing Philadelphia
NY Giants are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games when playing Philadelphia
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 7 games when playing at home against NY Giants
Philadelphia is 2-4 SU in their last 6 games when playing at home against NY Giants

[Tommy]

Game 409-410: Oakland at Pittsburgh (1:00 p.m. EST)

Dunkel Ratings: Oakland 134.373; Pittsburgh 136.060
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1 1/2; 37
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 7 1/2; 41 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (+7 1/2); Under

Game 411-412: Houston at NY Jets (1:00 p.m. EST)

Dunkel Ratings: Houston 128.407; NY Jets 138.230
Dunkel Line: NY Jets by 10; 48
Vegas Line: NY Jets by 7; 45 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Jets (-7); Over

Game 413-414: Baltimore at Carolina (1:00 p.m. EST)

Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore 131.967; Carolina 124.177
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 8; 34
Vegas Line: Baltimore by 10 1/2; 37 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Carolina (+10 1/2); Under

Game 415-416: Washington at Tennessee (1:00 p.m. EST)

Dunkel Ratings: Washington 132.071; Tennessee 137.430
Dunkel Line: Tennessee by 5 1/2; 39
Vegas Line: Tennessee by 7; 44
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+7); Under

Game 417-418: Detroit at Dallas (1:00 p.m. EST)

Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 126.528; Dallas 134.175
Dunkel Line: Dallas by 7 1/2; 52
Vegas Line: Dallas by 6; 46
Dunkel Pick: Dallas (-6); Over

Game 419-420: Green Bay at Minnesota (1:00 p.m. EST)

Dunkel Ratings: Green Bay 134.427; Minnesota 134.119
Dunkel Line: Even; 41
Vegas Line: Green Bay by 3; 44
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+3); Under

Game 421-422: Buffalo at Cincinnati (1:00 p.m. EST)

Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 123.803; Cincinnati 131.215
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 7 1/2; 47
Vegas Line: Cincinnati by 5; 44
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-5); Over

Game 423-424: Cleveland at Jacksonville (1:00 p.m. EST)

Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland 131.701; Jacksonville 135.072
Dunkel Line: Jacksonville by 3 1/2; 46
Vegas Line: Jacksonville by 1; 44
Dunkel Pick: Jacksonville (-1); Over

Game 425-426: Arizona at Kansas City (1:00 p.m. EST)

Dunkel Ratings: Arizona 125.721; Kansas City 132.318
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 6 1/2; 40
Vegas Line: Kansas City by 8; 44
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+8); Under

Game 427-428: Seattle at New Orleans (4:00 p.m. EST)

Dunkel Ratings: Seattle 124.565; New Orleans 138.393
Dunkel Line: New Orleans by 14; 51
Vegas Line: New Orleans by 11 1/2; 44
Dunkel Pick: New Orleans (-11 1/2); Over

Game 429-430: Atlanta at St. Louis (4:00 p.m. EST)

Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 131.169; St. Louis 131.108
Dunkel Line: Even; 40
Vegas Line: Atlanta by 3; 43 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (+3); Under

Game 431-432: Tampa Bay at San Francisco (4:00 p.m. EST)

Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay 128.025; San Francisco 128.887
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1; 37
Vegas Line: San Francisco by 3 1/2; 41 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (+3 1/2); Under

Game 433-434: Indianapolis at New England (4:15 p.m. EST)

Dunkel Ratings: Indianapolis 135.237; New England 140.050
Dunkel Line: New England by 5; 55
Vegas Line: New England by 3; 50
Dunkel Pick: New England (-3); Over

Game 435-436: NY Giants at Philadelphia (8:20 p.m. EST)

Dunkel Ratings: NY Giants 136.379; Philadelphia 137.246
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1; 45
Vegas Line: Philadelphia by 3 1/2; 48 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Giants (+3 1/2); Under

[Tommy]

Vernon Croy

Green Bay Packers vs. Minnesota Vikings

This pick falls into one of my top NFL systems and the Vikings are the better overall team here despite coming into this match-up with a losing record.

The Packers are banged up on both sides of the ball and they will not be able to stop perhaps the best running back in the league. I look for Adrian Peterson to carry the ball very successfully which will open up the big play down the field for Brett Favre to make.

Both of the Vikings wide-outs Percy Harvin and Sidney Rice are expected to play and of course Brett Favre will be under center despite being banged up.

This is the biggest game of the Vikings season because a loss against the Packers would definitely end any chance of making the playoffs.

The Packers are just 1-4 against the spread in their last 5 games as a road favorite of 0.5 to 3 points and the Underdog happens to be 17-6 ATS in the last 23 games played between these two teams.

The Vikings come into this game 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games when playing a team that has a winning record on the road and they are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 home games.

The Vikings basically lost both of their last two games because of turnovers and I look for them to focus on ball safety at home Sunday.

Take the Minnesota Vikings

[Tommy]

More Week 11 Picks: Sunday Nov 21 NFL Picks

[Tommy]

My opinion picks for Week 11. 8-3 last week.

Steelers -7

Jets -7

Ravens/Panthers Under 37

Redskins/Titans Under 44

Cowboys -6

Packers/Vikings Over 44

Bills/Bengals Under 44

Browns +2

Cardinals/Chiefs No opinion

Seahawks/Saints No opinion

Rams +3

Bucs +3.5

Pats -4

Giants/Eagles Over 48

BOL Week 11!