[Tommy]

NFL Week 7

Saints (2-4) @ Rams (2-4)
Two trainwrecks pass in the night, as clubs with two worst turnover ratios (Saints -11, Rams -9) in NFL hook up; Saints lost last three road games by combined score of 112-29 (38-10); they're 28th in third down defense, 29th in red zone offense, and they've lost McAllister, Bellamy and Lewis for season with injuries, though they might get Joe Horn back here. Bulger is out after Monday shoulder injury; Colts started five of their 11 drives in Ram territory, and defense was helpless to stop them. Rams lost last three games, allowing 42 ppg. Saints won last three visits to this site, but not advisable to back either party.

Packers (1-4) @ Vikings (1-4)
Over last four years, Green Bay is 27-9 from its bye to end of season; Pack won seven of its last nine post-bye games, winning last four in row, three by three or less points. Pack won last two visits to Metrodome, 30-27/34-31; their only loss in last four series games was 31-17 at Lambeau in last year's playoffs. Only team Vikings have beaten was Saints team that was on road for fourth straight week. In their 4 losses, Minnesota has been outscored 75-10 in first half, and scored only two TD's on 46 drives. Distraction of "boat episode" not helping, either.

Colts (6-0) @ Texans (0-5)
Indy won all six series games, winning at this site by 23-3/20-17/23-14 scores; four of six series totals were 37 or less. Colts traveling on short week after unexpectedly tough game vs Rams, but Texans are impossible to back at this point- they've been outscored 80-19 in first half, allowed 30 sacks in five games, and converted six of their last 29 on third down. On drives that start 80 yards from goal line, Texan defense is worst (2.87) in NFL on defense, 28th (0.56) on offense. Vegas has inflated this spread a lot, trying to keep people away from Indy.

Steelers (3-2) @ Bengals (5-1)
Steelers need Big Ben back in lineup; they were awful with Maddox at QB last week, but are 2-0 on road, scoring 25.5 ppg, and are 8-3 vs spread in last 11 games that followed a loss. Huge game for upstart Bengals, as skeptics still out, but will be quick to hop on bandwagon with win here, over Pitt team that is 5-1 in last six visits to this site, winning last three times, allowing Cincinnati just 10.3 ppg. Bengals are 2-0 at home, outscoring foes 37-3; they're riding huge turnover margin (+16, by far best in NFL) but will need better execution (13 for last 47 on third down) to keep this ride going.

Chargers (3-3) @ Eagles (3-2)
Philly has trailed at half in four of five games, also allowed 311 rushing yards in last two games; they've thrown 78 passes, run ball 26 times in last two games, so will be interesting to see if they come out of bye trying to run it more. Eagles are 2-0 at home; they've scored 42-23-37 points in their wins this year, 10 in both their losses. Chargers are 3-3, with three losses by combined total of nine points (3-4-2); they are 10-2-1 vs spread in games following their last 13 wins. Bolts won three of last four games, scoring 38.8 ppg- they're the better team here.

Chiefs (3-2) @ Dolphins (2-3)
Home side won 12 of last 13 series games, with Chiefs losing last six visits to this site; their last win here was in '89. Fish are 0-3 on road, but 2-0 at home, beating Denver, Carolina, scoring 61 points in process; they're +2 in TO's at home, -6 on road, and scored total of 34 points in their losses. KC allowed 29.3 ppg in last three games; they've forced just 10 3-and-outs on 51 enemy drives (19.6%), worst average in league, but they are 12-9 vs spread in game following their last 21 wins. In five games, Miami has thrown 35 more incomplete passes (88-53) than Chiefs, while forcing same amount (67). This game is at 7pm Friday; Chiefs will travel to Miami that day, which is highly unusual for an NFL team.

Lions (2-3) @ Browns (2-3)
Detroit would switch to Garcia at QB if former Brown QB was healthy, but is he? Despite scoring two defensive TD's last week and forcing 12 turnovers in last three games, Detroit lost at home to Panthers and are 0-2 on road, losing by combined score of 55-19; they're banged up at WR, and wasting great effort by their defense. Patience with Harrington is almost nil. Browns allowing 140 rushing yards a game, have scored just two TD's on last 30 drives but are 2-0 vs spread after loss this year. AFC North favorites are 7-4 vs spread in non-division games so far this season.

49ers (1-4) @ Redskins (3-2)
SF coach Nolan is former Redskin defensive coordinator, but his Niners are 0-2
away from home, losing by combined score of 73-17; they allowed 38.8 ppg in losing last four games, are being outscored 85-20 in second half of games. Rookie QB Smith gets first road start vs Redskin defense that is last in NFL with two takeaways; could they make more plays if they used Arrington some? Skins are minus in turnovers, field position in all five games, but somehow won games by 2,1,3 points. Niners have just six TD's on 56 drives; they're 30th on third down on both sides of ball. Washington has only eight TD's in five games.

Cowboys (4-2) @ Seahawks (4-2)
In last two games, Dallas had to defend only 28 runs; expect that to change vs Alexander and Seattle offense that scored 10 TD's on last 21 drives, and had 320 rushing yards vs hapless Texans last week. Seattle won four of last five games, scored 79 points in last two, and has 21 TD's on 62 drives (33.9%) best average in NFL. They're 5th in red zone offense, 6th in red zone defense, 1st in black zone (2.96 pts/drive that start 80+ yards from end zone) offense. Dallas 0-3 vs spread after a win this year, and 2-7 in last nine such tries; they're in non-division road game after pair of uplifting home divisional wins.

Bills (3-3) @ Raiders (1-4)
Just like Dallas, Bills go out west off of two division home wins, but Buffalo is 0-2 on road, losing by combined score of 38-10; they've allowed 176 rushing yards/game the last four weeks, and were sloppy in victory last week, turning ball over twice vs Jets and committing double-digit penalties. Oakland in desperate straits, have won last three series games; last time Bills won on this field was '66; they're 1-8 in last nine games at Silver and Black, beating '91 Raiders in LA. Raiders allowed 23+ points in their four losses; Bills averaging 5 ppg on road, and have Holcomb making first road start for Bills, who have been outscored 41-19 in second half of games.

Ravens (2-3) @ Bears (2-3)
Expect a slugfest here; under is 4-1 in both these teams' games, with good reason. Ravens are 0-2 on road, losing by 15,18 points to Titans and Lions; their defense has five takeaways in last two games, after having one in first three, so they're improving there. Chicago has 90,97 passing yds in last two games; in their wins, they allowed 6,3 points, and gave up 17.7 ppg in their losses. Home team won last two series games (17-6 at Ravens; 24-3 at Bears). Ravens have just six TD's on 58 drives and a minus-7 turnover ratio. Bear defense has been stellar, but AFC North teams 9-6 vs spread out of division, and Chicago 6-11 vs spread after their last 17 wins.

Titans (2-4) @ Cardinals (1-4)
Arizona as favorite never a very inviting figure; they're 0-2 at home this year, with its only win in Mexico; they have seven giveaways in last two games, negating 927-498 edge in total offense, as backup QB McCown campaigns for #1 job. Cards, for season, are last in red zone (2.71) offense, 31st in red zone (5.77) defense, 30th in black zone (2.32) defense, last in TD %age (five TD's on 62 drives) and are -26 in IP's. Tennessee lost three of last four games; they allowed 31+ points in all their losses, 10,20 in their wins. Last three Arizona games went over total, as did three of last four Titan tilts.

Broncos (5-1) @ Giants (3-2)
Denver flying cross-country after pair of home wins, including last week's win over champ Patriots; they've won their last five games. Home side won three in row and six of last eight series games in this series. Eli won last four home starts; Giants scored 38.3 ppg in Swamp. Favorite is 4-0-1 vs spread in their games, with home side winning all five. Giants are +10 in turnovers, forcing 18 in five games; they're 12-24 vs spread in game following their last 36 wins. Denver has run ball for 18 yards per game over last four weeks; they split pair of Florida road games.

Jets (2-4) @ Falcons (4-2)
First times these teams met since '98; Gang Green is 0-3 on road, with average loss by 22-9; they failed to gain 275 yards in any of their last five games. Atlanta's defense has slipped last two weeks, allowing 352 rushing yards and 62 points, but they've stopped foes on 20 of last 27 third down plays and won three of last four overall. Four of six Falcon games been decided by four or less points. Martin got loose for two big runs in Buffalo last week, but asking lot of Vinny if you think this team is winning with offense. Their turnover ratio is -1; in their playoff years, they've been in double digits on positive side. Vick's mobility has Atlanta 5th in NFL in red zone offense.