[Eaglesfan]

Handicapping Trends

JETS + 7.5 O/U 40.5


NY Jets
NY Jets are 2-4-0 ATS in its last 6 games
NY Jets are 4-1-1 ATS in its last 6 games against Atlanta
NY Jets are 2-5-0 ATS in its last 7 away games
NY Jets are 2-4-0 OU in its last 6 games
NY Jets are 3-6-0 OU in its last 9 away
NY Jets are 6-12-0 SU in its last 18 games after being .5 to 3 point underdogs
NY Jets are 4-2-0 ATS in its last 6 games after being .5 to 3 point underdogs

Atlanta
Atlanta is 1-4-1 ATS in its last 6 games against NY Jets
Atlanta is 4-1-1 ATS in its last 6 home games
Atlanta is 3-8-0 OU in its last 11 at home
Atlanta is 2-4-0 SU in its last 6 games after scoring 31 to 40 points
Atlanta is 1-4-0 ATS in its last 5 games after being 3.5 to 7 point favorites

[Eaglesfan]

Betting Situations


NY Jets most recently...
After a loss are 6-3
After playing Bills are 6-4
When playing outside division are 4-6
When they are even odds on the road are 1-0
After being out gained by opponent are 4-5
When playing in October are 6-4
Atlanta most recently...
After a win are 5-5
After playing Saints are 4-6
Before playing Dolphins are 1-0
When playing outside division are 6-4
When they are even odds at home are 1-2
After being out gained by opponent are 5-4
When playing in October are 5-5

[Tommy]

NY Jets +7.5
Atlanta Falcons -7.5

0/U 40.5

Wagerline at 11:43 AM EST

SPREAD

NY Jets 456
Atlanta 1117

OVER/UNDER

Over 580
under 423

LINE MOVES

10/24/2005 2:14:00 AM ET Ny Jets +7.5 Atlanta 40.5
10/23/2005 11:44:00 PM ET Ny Jets +7.5 Atlanta 41
10/23/2005 8:25:00 PM ET Ny Jets +7.5 Atlanta 40.5
10/23/2005 5:15:00 PM ET Ny Jets +7 Atlanta 40.5
10/23/2005 5:05:00 PM ET Ny Jets +7.5 Atlanta 40.5
10/21/2005 10:44:00 AM ET Ny Jets +7 Atlanta 40.5
10/21/2005 12:46:00 AM ET Ny Jets +7.5 Atlanta 40.5
10/17/2005 7:55:00 PM ET Ny Jets +7 Atlanta 40.5
10/17/2005 5:25:00 PM ET Ny Jets +7 Atlanta 41
10/17/2005 9:14:00 AM ET Ny Jets +7 Atlanta 40.5

[Eaglesfan]

As indicated by the movement of the total, the betting public is favoring the OVER in this game

The betting public is correct when moving the total in NY JETS games 52% of the time since 1992. (90-83)
The betting public is correct when moving the total in NY JETS games 56.7% of the time over the past 3 seasons. (17-13)
The betting public is correct when moving the total in ATLANTA games 45.2% of the time since 1992. (76-92)
The betting public is correct when moving the total in ATLANTA games 28.1% of the time over the past 3 seasons. (9-23)

Edge=Under

[Tommy]

Jets (2-4) @ Falcons (4-2)
First times these teams met since '98; Gang Green is 0-3 on road, with average loss by 22-9; they failed to gain 275 yards in any of their last five games. Atlanta's defense has slipped last two weeks, allowing 352 rushing yards and 62 points, but they've stopped foes on 20 of last 27 third down plays and won three of last four overall. Four of six Falcon games been decided by four or less points. Martin got loose for two big runs in Buffalo last week, but asking lot of Vinny if you think this team is winning with offense. Their turnover ratio is -1; in their playoff years, they've been in double digits on positive side. Vick's mobility has Atlanta 5th in NFL in red zone offense.

[Eaglesfan]

NY JETS
CB Ty Law Back Questionable Mon. vs Atl. 10/18
FB B.J. Askew Ankle Questionable Mon. vs Atl. 10/18
LB Eric Barton Ankle Questionable Mon. vs Atl. 10/18
C Kevin Mawae Elbow Out for the season. 10/18
RB Derrick Blaylock Broken Foot Out for the season. 10/9
QB Jay Fiedler Shoulder Late Nov. 9/11
QB Chad Pennington Shoulder Out remainder of the season. 9/27
T Marko Cavka Arm I-R. 9/13
LB Darrell McClover Ankle Out indefinitely. 8/14
S Andre Maddox Knee Out for the season. 9/3
ATLANTA
LB Antoine Cash Groin Questionable Mon. vs Nyj. 10/18
LB Edgerton Hartwell Foot Out for the season. 10/10
WR Kerry Johnson Knee I-R. 9/16
CB Kevin Mathis Hamstring Out for remainder of season. 9/15
LB Jordan Beck Foot Out for the season. 9/4
DL Erik Flowers Back I-R. 9/16
G Steve Herndon Undisclosed I-R. 9/13

[maniac_19_bg]

Eaglesfan, I think you are wrong! Seems to me the public is betting the UNDER!!!

[Tommy]

Originally Posted by maniac_19_bg

Eaglesfan, I think you are wrong! Seems to me the public is betting the UNDER!!!

Can you give your reasoning on why you think the public is on the under? Thanks

[kilohana]

VINNY & DA JETS...THE ONLY PLAY YOU NEED!!!!




KILO

[bet365]

public is pounding Vick...
public won last MNF with Colts... Can public win two in a row?

[maniac_19_bg]

Originally Posted by big123

Can you give your reasoning on why you think the public is on the under? Thanks

Big123, I do not understand the % that sportsbook.com gives out. Seems too strange to me. However, I red like more than 200 posts at another forum and no more than 2-3 of them were suggesting the OVER.
Also the total in my bookie fell with half a point. It takes big money to do that - they are biiiiig!

I am thinking of a Teaser:

JETS +14.5
OVER 33

[Tommy]

Ok Maniac. I don't know about the OU but the public is hammering the Falcons. I think I will have to make a phone call tonight to see where the late money is going at a certain local.

[bet365]

BIG

do you like those Altanta?

[maniac_19_bg]

Here are two articles that might be of some use:

FLETCHERISM


Monday Night NFL: (8-4 + 14.18 Units)

Sunday Night NFL: (4-1 + 5.29 Units)

NFL Overall: (46-29 + 42.60 Units)



Can 61% of the Public be wrong? According to SI’s numbers 61% of the people tomorrow are going to lose their money that are playing the total and here is why. This game is a game that favors the UNDER to the extreme. Neither the Jets nor the Falcons want nor possess that talent to throw the football. Mike Vick continues in by my estimation to be the most over hyped over valued QB in the NFL. I know he has a great winning % and I fully understand that his team loves him and they play hard for him, but the simple truth is that he is not a QB you have to worry about beating you consistently from the pocket so they have to rely on the ground game, luckily they have the best. Vick and Dunn will be doing the running with TJ Ducket OUT for tonight’s game, and that is bad news for the Falcons because Ducket is one of the finest short yardage backs in the league while his replacement will be their fullback Justin Griffith – hardly an equal trade off. Vick will be a bit leery of running too much with his Knee being banged up so I expect the Falcons test the Jets secondary some (especially with Ty Law likely OUT) and that should result in a turnover or two.

The Jets come into this game fresh off a 150+ yard day from Curtis Martin on the road in Buffalo….but that is vs the Bills the worst run defense in football, so take that with a grain of salt. Also the Jets are only averaging 80 yards per game on the ground hardly anything to boast about. The Falcons meanwhile average more rushing yards then passing yards, by 41 yards at that …that has to be some kind of record! When you are leading the NFL in yards per attempt why pass?? 5.5 is the yardage per run and when you throw in the fact that in the Georgia dome they are averaging 200 per contest…this game becomes no contest.

The Jets now have to deal with the loss of Kevin Mawae their perennial All Pro Center who had started 170 straight games, an incredible feat for in interior linemen. The Loss of Mawae will be crippling for the Jets without question. Its not like he was just an average center, this guy was considered by almost everyone the best in the business and that opinion has been held for at least the last 8 or so years. Think about some key losses at Center these last few years and their impact. When Oakland played Tampa in the Super Bowl the coach at the time Bill Callahan said that Barrett Robbins going awol was “absolutely crushing” and it showed as Gannon was crushed. This year the Vikings lose NFC Pro Bowler Matt Birk who they have said was “maybe more valuable or as valuable as Randy Moss” and look at what the Vikings have done in front of Culpepper. The Center is the “eyes” of the offensive line, he’s their leader, he is in charge of blocking audiles and is the confidant to the quarterback; a good center is hard to find so a great center lost is irreplaceable. First game after such a key loss is always a tough one, even with the Falcons hemorrhaging rushing yards this will no doubt be too hard on the Jets and their fragile offense.

As far as the Falcons getting killed on the ground, it’s absolutely alarming. On the year the Falcons are giving up the 3rd worst Run defense with 4.9 yards per rush, a staggering amount for a team in 1st place. Those two teams that are worse…Houston and Buffalo are a combined 3-10 so far this year. Before you go buy a Jets +7.5 ticket…listen to this. Out of the 6 games this year 3 on the road and 3 at home the Falcons are allowing only 85 on them at home compared to 166 on the road, which is DOUBLE! Now to make things even more obscene, The Jets have the SAME EXACT PROBLEM! The Jets are allowing 163 on the road and only 78 at home, these two trends are flat out ridiculous. Tonights game is of course back at home where last time the ATL was torched by the Patriots for 300+ yards, but with Vinny in town …42 year old Vinny that is with his sub 50 QB rating and his 0 TDs and 3 Interceptions, the Jets passing threat is severely less of a threat. This will give them all the more time this week to work on that run defense.


The bottom line is this – The ATL was not prepared to stop the Saints run game last week that went for over 200 because they lost McAllister just the week before, so that isn’t that telling IMO. The Jets come into this game so banged up and so one dimensional they warrant the 7.5 points they are getting, theoretically this game should be not close and much like Atlanta’s win at home vs the Vikings a few weeks back 30-10. The Jets are very poor on the road but their defense wont allow them to be embarrassed on National television, John Vilma is a great young MLB and without Ducket will be able to hamper the ATL run game somewhat, so expect a grinder tonight. Both teams will be hesitant to put the ball in the air because they are no good at it and also because they are such good ground teams, this is a great UNDER play. I have a little system for totals that helped me with this game…it says 36.5…lets see how it does!


438 Atlanta / Jets UNDER 41 -107 (4.5 Units)


Monday, October 24, 2005

New York Jets (+7½) at Atlanta Falcons

Power Rating Projection:

Atlanta Falcons 22 New York Jets 16
Statistical Projections

Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:

Atlanta Falcons 17 New York Jets 12



marc lawrence:
Monday, October 24th
ATLANTA over NY Jets by 7
We don’t know if there is another team in the league with a five
game winning streak on the Monday Night football road. The
Jets have one but it will be severely tested here. If it weren’t for
Atlanta’s horrible 2-13 ATS mark on ABC night, we’d take a long
hard look at the Falcons. Here’s why: The Jets are a running team
that must run the ball to succeed. When the other team does it
better, New York is 10-33 SU and 10-30-3 ATS. Atlanta runs the
ball better than anyone in the league.


Monday

New York Jets (+7) at Atlanta (41): The Jets have started to run the ball better over their last couple of games while Atlanta continues to have the best ground game in the league. Jets’ QB Vinny Testaverde still has some football in him but his ability to make the big play has diminished and he will be harassed by an aggressive Atlanta defense. Similarly, Atlanta QB Michael Vick is far more dangerous with his feet than with his arm and this game shapes up as game of field position. UNDER the Total is the play.

Taken from :

http://www.thegamblersedgesportsforu...wtopic&t=15640

[Tommy]

Originally Posted by bet365

BIG

do you like those Altanta?

I havent decided yet. I will make a phone call to see where the late money is going, then probably go with that. I will post what Im on at around 830-40

[Eaglesfan]

MANIAC I THINK THAT MIGHT OF BEEN EARLY REPORT BUT PUBLIC WAS ON THE OVER AT ONE TIME. THEY MIGHT BE ON THE UNDER NOW

[Eaglesfan]

NA MONEY STILL ON THE OVER 71% AT SPORTSBOOK 676 498 WAGERLINE
SPORTS BOOK O/U DOWN TO 40 FOR SOME REASON ?

[Eaglesfan]

UNDER 40.5 FOR ME PROB GONNA PLAY A TEASE TOO

[Grinder]

Hey guys I think we should be very wary of the numbers the wagerline and the other books give out, they aren't here to fill our pockets thats our job.
Seems that most are on the under and the Falcons. Love the over will continue looking at the side...

[Eaglesfan]

Originally Posted by Grinder

Hey guys I think we should be very wary of the numbers the wagerline and the other books give out, they aren't here to fill our pockets thats our job.
Seems that most are on the under and the Falcons. Love the over will continue looking at the side...

I AGREE