[Tommy]

NFL Week 9

Chargers (4-4) @ Jets (2-5)
Visiting team won last four series games, with Jets taking last three, including OT playoff game last year, when Kaeding missed game-winning FG in rain at Qualcomm. These Jets are not those Jets however, having lost four of last five games, having turned ball over ten times in last three. Chargers covered five of last six games; their wins are all by 8+ points; they're 11-2-1 vs spread in game after their last fourteen wins. Jets allowed 7,12 points in their wins. Well-balanced Bolt attack won't be held under 14, and Chargers allowed foes to convert just 9 of last 40 on third down. Sister of Charger LB Godfrey died during week; he will miss this game.

Lions (3-4) @ Vikings (2-5)
With Culpepper out with knee injuries, Brad Johnson gets nod for Vikings, who won 10 of last 11 series games, winning last six in row, with three of last five by three or less points. Lions run offense better with Garcia, but don't have WR's that make plays, and that killed them in bitter home OT loss last week vs Bears; they've scored just two TD's on last 36 drives, and gave up winning TD on INT last week. Detroit is 15-8 vs spread in game after its last 23 losses, 3-0 this year. Under is 5-2 in last seven Viking games, 3-1-1 in last five Detroit games. Harrington starting at QB for Lions, Vikings now taking money (+1.5 to -1, as I type this).

Titans (2-6) @ Browns (2-5)
Home side lost last four series games, as Titans won last three trips to Lake Erie, but lost last two series games by FG each. Browns scored just 9.7 ppg in losing last three games; they're 3 for last 20 on third down and have only one TD on last 31 drives. Cleveland is 11-16 vs spread in game after its last 27 losses. Titans also lost three in row, by 8,10,9 points; they have eight giveaways in last three games, and are 6-10 vs spread in game after their last sixteen losses. Titans are 1-3 on road, allowing 26.3 ppg. Last five Cleveland games stayed under the total.

Raiders (3-4) @ Chiefs (4-3)
Oakland won three of last four games after 0-3 start, scoring 38,34 points in last two games, but they've lost last three trips to this site by 1,3,10 points; Raiders lost last four games overall in NFL's best rivalry, all by seven or less points. In last three games, Chiefs scored 55 second half points, but they need to get off to better starts (outscored 34-23 in last three first halves). Raiders just 4-7 vs spread in game after their last 11 wins, but they've averaged 7.1+ yards per pass attempt in five of last six games. Chiefs allowed 20+ points in each of last five games. Chiefs' Green will start, Holmes probably won't.

Bears (4-3) @ Saints (2-6) (@LSU)
Last Saint game before much-needed bye, but hard to imagine depressed Saints hanging in vs aggressive Bear D that allowed 7.3 ppg during three-game win streak. Saints did win outright as dog in pre-bye game last two years, but they've lost five in row away from San Antonio, been outscored 33-6 in second half last two weeks and allowed 152.3 rushing yards per game last three weeks, all red flags for possible surrender. Chicago is Brooks completed less than half his passes in four of last six games. Saints are 0-6 in '05 if they don't win turnover battle. Bears are 4-0 if they don't lose TO battle, so if they protect ball, they should win. Bears 3-0 in weak NFC North, just 1-3 outside of division.

Bengals (6-2) @ Ravens (2-5)
Baltimore is 11-3 in last 14 games vs Bengals, winning seven of last eight at this site (all seven Ws by 7+ points); five of last six series totals were 44+. Cincy has forced 28 turnovers in eight games (+20) but lost both games they didn't win turnover battle. Ravens fought hearts out but lost Monday night, converting 9 of 18 on third down, but scoring only one TD, while trying five FG's. Bengals are 5-0 if they allow less than 23 points; they're +12 in sacks, +30 in IP's, and are 11-8 vs spread in game following their last 19 wins.

Panthers (5-2) @ Bucs (5-2)
Carolina won last four series games by 24-17 average; they've also won four in row overall, scoring 28.8 ppg, as Smith has emerged as elite WR. Carolina's three road games been decided by total of eight points, with Panthers 2-1; they have 10 sacks in last two games, and allowed 82 or less rushing yards in last four. Bucs scored 10 points in hideous loss last week at 49ers; they've allowed just 9.7 ppg in winning all three home games, are 17-11 vs spread in game after last 28 losses, but must overcome play of inferior QB Simms, until recently-acquired Rattay ready to go.

Texans (1-6) @ Jaguars (4-3)
Houston kept Jax out of playoffs last year with pair of wins (20-6/21-0); will Texans be satisfied after getting off schneid last week? Jags gave up 200 rushing yards vs Rams last week, but has 221 of their own; in their losses, Jax allowed 146-188-200 rush yards. In their wins, they gave up average of 97.8. Texans have yet to gain 260 yards in any game this year and are 0-5 if allowing more than 16 points, or not winning turnover battle; in their history, they're 4-12 vs spread in game following a win. Jags covered seven of last nine after a loss.

Falcons (5-2) @ Dolphins (3-4)
Vick hit less than half his passes in each of last two games, but Birds ran ball for 160+ yards in five of seven tilts, winning two of three on road. Miami is 1-4 if they allow more than 10 points, 5-10 vs spread in game after their last 15 wins, but they won all three games where they didn't lose turnover battle. Last year was first time in seven years Atlanta won its post-bye game. Last three Atlanta games went over the total, as did four of last five Atlanta tilts. Miami is 7-2 in series,
5-1 at home, but teams meeting for first time since 2001.

Giants (5-2) @ 49ers (2-5)
Trap game for Giants after emotional win over Skins; reality is that Manning has yet to win road start, and NY 0-2 away from home this year (SD, Dallas). 49ers on 4th starting QB (Pickett) of season, vs team they've beaten six times in row, last one being wild 39-38 playoff affair in '02, when Big Blue blew 38-14 lead. SF has run ball well (143.7 yds/g) last three weeks, but they've converted just 8 of last 42 on third down. Giants have 23 takeaways in seven games (+12), scored 23+ points in six of seven games and outscored foes 44-13 in last 2:00 of each half, but Eli still completed less than half his passes in three of seven games. Niners averaged less than 3.5 yards per pass in each of last four games.

Seahawks (5-2) @ Cardinals (2-5)
Seattle lost its last six post-bye games, allowing 31.6 ppg in last five; they crushed Redbirds 37-12 in first meeting, pulling away from 10-9 halftime lead, after then-starting QB Warner tore leg muscle. Hawks are 11-23 vs spread in game that followed their last 34 wins. Cards going nowhere; they've scored two TD's, had 15 3-and-outs on last 29 drives and are 0-5 unless they win turnover battle. Arizona is 0-4 if they score less than 20 points, 0-5 if they allow more than 14. Seahawks won five of last six series games, with only one win by less than 18 points. Kurt Warner gets start for Redbirds.

Steelers (5-2) @ Packers (1-6)
Green Bay struggling, with only win over road-weary Saints, but last five losses have all been by seven or less points, so they haven't been crushed since Week 1. Pitt traveling to non-conference tilt off emotional Monday night win, which was really sloppy Steeler win; Big Ben tweaked his knee, his mobility was less, and that hurt Steeler offense. Pitt is + 6 in turnovers, +25 in IP's and is 4th in NFL stopping drives that start 80+ yards from their goal line (0.54). To beat Steelers, you need to create short field, and Pack not doing little things right now that create easier scoring chances. Charlie Batch at QB for Steelers, creating huge QB mismatch, but he'll just hand off.

Eagles (4-3) @ Redskins (4-3)
Philly won last seven series games, five by 13+ points; they won last five visits to this site, with three of last four wins by 14+, but leaks have sprung in Eagle ship, as Philly allowed 31+ points in three of last four games, and lost three of four on road, giving up 37.7 ppg. McNabb missed his first 12 passes last week, as Broncos gained 550+ yards; he's averaged 18.4 IP/game in last five weeks, not good. Redskins were worse last week, losing 36-0 at Swamp, but they're 3-0 at home, allowing 13.7 ppg; they gave up 21+ points in their losses, 17 or less in wins. Terrell Owens created another media circus late in week; hard to gauge how much of a distraction he really is.

Colts (7-0) @ Patriots (4-3)
Colts outscored opponents 117-37 in second half of games this year, sign of dominance, but unbeaten Indy lost last six series games by average score of 32-17, with two of last three in playoffs. Colts lost last eight visits to this site; their last win here was 10 years ago. Dungy's squad by far the better club in this spot, as Indy 4-0 on road (all W's by 17+ pts); they have 381 rushing yards in last two games and are 18-10 vs spread in game after their last 28 wins. Patriots have yet to win two in row this year; their losses are by 10,24,8 points, and they've allowed 7.1+ yards per pass in each of last four games

[Tommy]

Going with the Bears -3 here

[naught33]

nice info here tommy, very helpful