[Tommy]

NFL Week 10

Chiefs (5-3) @ Bills (3-5)
First carpet game of year for Chiefs, who could use RB Holmes back, as blustery Buffalo weather can mess up a passing game. Home side won nine of last ten series games; this is Chiefs' first trip to Buffalo since '96. Bills are 3-1 at home, but are 0-5 if they allow more than 17 points. Chiefs have yet to lose allowing less than 28 points and figure to get bounce off last week's revenge win over on Raiders on last play of game. Last three Buffalo home games went over total, as did three of last four KC road games.

Redskins (5-3) @ Buccaneers (5-3)
Tampa scored 12-10-14 points in losses, 17+ in wins; Simms' passing isn't respected, teams are stacking run- as result, Bucs ran ball 38 times for 84 yards in last two games combined. Redskins traveling off pair of division games; they beat Philly last week, but were outgained 722-418 last two weeks. Skins lost last four visits to this site; last time they were here was 14-13 playoff loss in '99. Home side won six of last seven series games. Under is 6-2 in Buccaneer games this season. Skins are 1-3 on road; they were down 13-0 with 6:00 left in only win, at Dallas.

Patriots (4-4) @ Dolphins (3-5)
In last three games, New England has been outscored 45-10 in first half. Miami 1-4 in last five games; they scored 31+ points in their wins, less than 21 in losses. Here, they catch Patriot squad traveling on short work week, and reeling on defense (29th on third down, 31st in red zone, allowed 28+ points in five of last six games, opponents converted 19 of last 31 third down plays.) Pats won four of last five series games, but lost 29-28 in last year's visit here; three of last five series games were won by a point, or in OT.

49ers (2-6) @ Bears (5-3)
Chicago won last four games, allowing 9.8 ppg; only two of their five wins are by 13+ points, however. In their opponents' last 51 drives, Chicago has forced 3-and-out 26 times, so they're likely to dominate 49er offense that has averaged just 58.5 passing yards per game over last month. Niners are 0-3 on road, losing by 39-17-35 points, so they've been helpless away from home. Bears are 6-3 vs spread in game after their last nine wins. Under is 5-1 in last six Bear games, 3-1 in last four 49er contests.

Vikings (3-5) @ Giants (6-2)
Minnesota is 0-4 on road, losing all four games by 20+ points; they're 12-17 vs spread in game after their last 29 wins and are 0-5 if they score less than 23 points (they scored 13 or less in all five losses). Giants are 5-0 at home, with four wins by 17+ points (4-1 as home favorite); they scored 30 ppg in winning last three series games- this is Vikes' first trip to Swamp since 41-0 tank job in NFC title game five years ago. Under is 3-0-1 in last four Giant games, 3-1 in Minnesota road games. Giants facing second backup QB in row.

Cardinals (2-6) @ Lions (3-5)
Home side won last five series games, with Redbirds losing at this site last two years (24-42/12-26). Arizona 0-3 on road, losing by 23-25-21 points; they have yet to run ball for 100+ yards in game, have just three TD's on last 34 drives, and have just one takeaway in last two games. Detroit has solid defense, but they're 0-4 unless they win turnover battle and seem reluctant to play Harrington at QB. Lions have four TD's on last 48 drives, but are 15-9 vs spread in game after their last 24 losses. Five of last six Arizona games went over total.

Ravens (2-6) @ Jaguars (5-3)
Not like Elway or Marino back under center for Ravens, but return of Boller should help some; Billick is 1-4 as dog this season, Baltimore lost last three games and is 0-4 on road, losing by average of nine points, but they have won six in row vs Jaguar squad that had their number in early days of franchise. 12 of the 14 series games have been decided by seven or less points. Jags won three of last four games (by 3,6,7 points); only one of their five wins is by more than seven. Ravens allowed three points in each of their wins; their offense has just two TD's on last 40 drives. Under is 6-2 in last eight Baltimore games.

Texans (1-7) @ Colts (8-0)
Indy's big victory Monday creates a letdown scenario here, vs struggling foe that is 0-4 on the road, losing by 15-6-32-7 points, and is 1-5 vs spread if they allow more than 16 points. Colts are 6-0 in series, winning three games at this site by scores of 19-3/30-21/49-14. Indy offense improving after slow start; they've converted 38 of last 56 third down plays (67.9%) and have 15 TD's on last 26 drives. Colts covered last five games, running for average of 171 yards per game in last three. Last three Indy games all went over the total.

Jets (2-6) @ Panthers (6-2)
More mobile Bollinger to start at QB for Jets, reeling from retirement of beloved WR Chrebet, who had ninth concussion last week. Jets lost last three games, by 10,14,5 points; they allowed 7,12 points in wins, and are 0-6 when they allow more than 12 points. Carolina won five in row, scoring 38,34 in last two weeks; they averaged over 11 yards per pass attempt in last two games. Carolina is 7-3 vs spread in game after their last ten wins; they've scored 3+ offensive TD's in each of their last seven games. Over is 5-0-1 in last six Panther games.

Broncos (6-2) @ Raiders (3-5)
Home team lost last three games in bitter rivalry, with Broncos winning last two visits to this site by combined score of 53-11. Shanahan now 15-5 vs his former boss, 7-3 at this site. These two teams have turned ball over least of anyone in NFL. Denver covered six of last seven games, but lost two of three on road; they've turned ball over once in last six games. Favorite is 4-0 vs spread in Oakland home games, with Raiders 0-2 as home dog; they allowed 24,34 points in losses, 21 or less in their wins. Only one of last seven Denver foes has rushed ball for more than 97 yards.

Rams (4-4) @ Seahawks (6-2)
Seahawks won 37-31 at St Louis in first meeting, despite converting just 2 of 11 on third down- they started four drives Ram territory, and outrushed Rams 134-77. But that was before Joe Vitt took over as head coach; coming off bye, hard to tell what Rams will be like- they won last two games with Martin at QB, but Bulger, Holt and Little might all be back here, but expect Rams to still feature Jackson in running game. Seattle is 4-0 at home; they're 5-0 if they score more than 17 points and averaged 31.3 ppg during four-game win streak.

Packers (1-7) @ Falcons (6-2)
You'd think Atlanta might let down here vs struggling Packer squad (0-4 on road, with only one loss by more than seven points) but defensive coordinator Donatell was sacked by Pack after '03 playoff loss at Philly, when Eagles saved game by converting 4th-and-26 vs Donatell's defense, and this is his first shot at revenge vs those that unfairly fired him. Also remember that Favre was drafted by and traded by Atlanta, during Glanville regime. Falcons have 160+ rushing yards in five of last six games; they're 3-1 at home, 2-1 as home fave. This is first series meeting since Atlanta won night playoff game on frozen tundra three years ago.

Browns (3-5) @ Steelers (6-2)
Pitt won nine of last 10 series games, with three of last four wins by 11+ points. Browns are 1-5 at this site, with three of five losses by 11+ pts. Batch starts again at QB, though; Steelers are 1 for 20 on third down in games Big Ben has missed (35.8% in games he played), with two TD's on 22 drives, and total yardage of 218,213. Three of last four Brown losses are by seven or less points; they've run ball for 325 yards in last two games, but still have just three offensive TD's on last 44 drives. Last six Cleveland games stayed under the total.

Cowboys (5-3) @ Eagles (4-4)
Dallas crushed Birds in first meeting, 33-10, outrushing Philly, 167-19, with total yardage 456-129. Pokes led 27-3 at half, and forced seven 3-and-outs on 10 Eagle drives. Desperation time for proud Philly team, though, as they're rid of Owens, and facing team they've beaten nine of last 11 times, with seven of nine wins by 22+ points. Cowboys lost last six visits to this city, where Eagles are 3-0 this year (wins by 39,3,3). Philly has rushed for 83 or less yards in each of last six games; they're 1-4 as favorite this year, and have scored seven or less first half points in each of last four games.