NFL Sunday 11-27 Notes

Tommy · 11-27-05, 07:22 AM

Patriots (6-4) @ Chiefs (6-4)
New England is 3-1 since their bye, losing only to Colts; they won last three series games by 6-3-8 points, but are 0-5 vs spread this season if they won their previous game. Chiefs at home for just second time in last six games; they're 3-1 at home, blowing 24-0 lead in only loss. Pats are 5-0 if they allow less than 27 points, a figure Chiefs hit in five of their six wins. Under is 3-1 in last four games for both sides, but average second half total in last four Patriot games is 29. KC yet to beat playoff-caliber team this season.

Ravens (3-7) @ Bengals (7-3)
Baltimore won 11 of last 15 in series, but lost first meeting this year, 21-9, as Cincy outgained Ravens 319-240 and converted 7 of 11 on third down. Ravens didn't have Boller that day, and averaged only 3.3 yards per pass attempt. Baltimore lost four of last five games, and has yet to score 20 in game this year; they're 0-2 vs spread after a win. Bengals haven't been minus in turnovers in any game this year (they've been even four times) , while Ravens have had plus ratio just once. Under is 4-1-1 in last six Raven games, 7-3 in Bengal games. Five of last six series totals were 44+.

Panthers (7-3) @ Bills (4-6)
Carolina lost for first time in seven weeks at Chicago last Sunday; they've allowed just one TD on last 21 drives, and shut out last two foes in second half (23-0), but are only 9 for last 28 on third down, as Delhomme had terrible game last week. Home side is 9-1 in Buffalo games, with Bills 4-1 at home, losing only to Atlanta. Bills are 0-6 if they allow more than 17 points; they've been outrushed 291-126 in last two games, and are 6 for last 26 on third down. Bills are 0-6 if they don't have a positive turnover ratio.

Bears (7-3) @ Buccaneers (7-3)
Tampa won last two series games, 15-0/19-7; Bears lost five of last visits to this site, which used to be annual event when they were in same division, but Chicago has dominating defense this year, allowing only three offensive TD's on foes' last 76 drives; they've won six games in row, covered four of six as dog, and haven't lost game if they scored more than 10 points. Bucs scored 36,30 points in winning last two games; they're 4-1 at home (losing to Carolina). Bears are just 19 for last 77 on third down. Under is 7-1 in last eight Bear games.

Chargers (6-4) @ Redskins (5-5)
Second week in row Snyder's Redskins oppose coach he got rid of; Marty's Bolts are hot, winning last three games and covering four of last five. SD outrushed last two foes 274-154, and should be fresh after bye two weeks ago and easy win last week. Washington lost five of seven after 3-0 start; their last two losses were by total of four points. Skins are 4-1 at home. None of San Diego's four losses are by more than four points. Chargers are 0-4 in DC, 1-6 in series, with last four losses all by five or less points.

Browns (4-6) @ Vikings (5-5)
Red-hot Minnesota won three in row, four of five, but they were outgained 405-137 in win at Swamp, and other three wins were vs fellow NFC North stooges. Tice's defense/special teams has scored four TD's in last two games, and his offense has thrown only one pick in last five games, after tossing 12 in first five. Cleveland scored 20+ points in last three games, after scoring 20+ just twice in first seven; they're 1-4 if they allow more than 14 points. In last eight games, Cleveland has started 24 drives 80+ yards from end zone, and scored only two FGs on those 24 drives. Under is 7-1 in last eight Brown games.

49ers (2-8) @ Titans (2-8)
Someone explain how Tennessee can be 7.5 points over anyone; Titans lost last five games, allowing 27.2 ppg, but their two wins are by 25-10 (Ravens) and 34-20 (Texans). This is first '05 game they've been favored in. 49ers have been awful on road (0-4, with losses by 39,17,35,8 points); only one of their last four games was decided by more than eight points, but they've competed better at home. Dorsey perked up Niner passing game last week, throwing for 226, after they hadn't passed for more than 117 in previous six games.

Rams (4-6) @ Texans (1-9)
Battle of two sinking ships; wouldn't be surprised if Mike Martz was coaching Texans next year. Teams have never met on field, but Rams did win bidding war for OT Pace last winter. Bulger is out with shoulder, so Rams turn to Martin and maybe Harvard rookie Fitzpatrick, who was super this summer. St Louis is 0-2 since bye, allowing 69 points (outrushed 268-81); they've turned ball over 2+ times in seven of last eight games- they had six rushing yards last week. Houston faced Chief offense last week, which is similar to Rams', and KC had 226 rushing yards. Texans outscored 52-14 in first half of their last two games.

Jaguars (7-3) @ Cardinals (3-7)
Arizona is 0-7 unless they win turnover battle; they have zero INT's and just three takeaways in last five games (-5)- they're 13-24 vs spread in game following their last 37 wins and have yet to rush for more than 97 yards in game this year. Jaguars won last three games by 7-27-3 points, holding foes to average of 68 yards per game on ground and outscoring them 65-21 in second half; they're 3-2 on road, with wins by 6(ot),6,3 points. Over is 7-1 in last eight Arizona games, 4-1-1 in last six Jag tilts.

Dolphins (3-7) @ Raiders (4-6)
Anyone else notice that lot of bad teams are favored this week? Well, favorite is 8-2 vs spread in Raider games this year, with Silver & Black 3-0 as favorite in '05. Oakland is 4-3 in last seven games after 0-3 start; they're 2-3 at home, and lost seven of last nine games vs Miami, including last five in regular season. Dolphins have QB dilemma, with Frerotte playing with injured finger, and Rosenfels not very good; they lost three in row and six of last seven games. Fish are 1-4 on road, with three losses by 10+ points, and only "road" win at LSU vs Saints. Under is 6-3 in last nine Raider games, 4-0 in Miami's last four.

NYGiants (7-3) @ Seattle (8-2)
Giants drafted Ron Dayne instead of Alexander, could pay price for that here, as Seattle ran ball for 175.7 ypg in three games since their bye; only one of last seven Giant foes has run for more than 106 yards. Big Blue won four of last five games; two of their three losses are by FG, with Chargers only team to beat them decisively. Seattle won last six games, has lock on NFC West, now has to keep winning to get valuable bye that top two in each conference get- hard to reach Super Bowl without it, so coaches don't let up just because they have division won. Six of last eight Seattle games went over the total.

Packers (2-8) @ Eagles (4-6)
Philly lost last four games, but has no more TO worries, but they're also using McMahon at QB, so huge QB mismatch here, vs Favre's Pack, which has scored more points than they've allowed, despite 2-8 record. Five of last seven Pack losses are by two or three points. Home team is 15-4 in last 19 series games. Pack lost last three series games by 3,3,30 points and also lost seven in row in Philly, with last win here coming in '62. Three of last four series games were won by three or less points. Under is 4-1 in last five Green Bay games.

Saints (2-8) @ Jets (2-8)
Speaking of horrible teams being favored, how about Saints as road favorite? Their last win was October 2; they lost last five road games, by 17-17-49-11 and 7 points. One plus is, in Saints' worst-ever 1-15 season, in '80, their lone win was over Jets at Shea Stadium. Bollinger starts for Jet club that has used five different QBs; they've lost last five games, four by 10+ points, and their coach appears to be looking for way out of town. Jets were outscored 57-3 last two weeks; they allowed 7,12 points in their two wins. Saints scored 17+ in six of last eight games.

Steelers (7-3) @ Colts (10-0)
Steelers won last nine games vs Colts, but eight of them were in Steel City. Pitt needs Big Ben back at QB to compete here; in four games he hasn't started, Steelers are 2-2, and converted just 11 for 48 (23%) on third down, compared to 35% when Ben starts. Indy running on all cylinders, with Colts converting 50 of last 80 (62.5%) third down plays. Not only is Indy 10-0, they covered six of last seven games; they're just 1-3 as home favorite, though. Steelers are 2-0 as dog this year, beat Chargers, Bengals in dog role. Last five Colt games all went over the total.

Tommy · 11-27-05, 07:23 AM

Sunday, November 27th

New England at Kansas City, 1:00 EST
New England: 7-1 ATS off BB Unders
Kansas City: 9-23 ATS vs. AFC East opponents

Baltimore at Cincinnati, 1:00 EST
Baltimore: 10-3 ATS off a win by 3 points or less
Cincinnati: 7-1 Under as a favorite

Carolina at Buffalo, 1:00 EST
Carolina: 11-3 ATS after allowing 14 points or less
Buffalo: 17-5 Under off a loss

Chicago at Tampa Bay, 1:00 EST
Chicago: 19-8 ATS away in November
Tampa Bay: 5-14 ATS off a win

San Diego at Washington, 1:00 EST
San Diego: 10-0 ATS off a home win by 21+ points
Washington: 11-2 Under at home off an ATS loss

Cleveland at Minnesota, 1:00 EST
Cleveland: N/A
Minnesota: N/A

San Francisco at Tennessee, 1:00 EST
San Francisco: 0-6 ATS off BB ATS wins
Tennessee: 9-2 Over off BB losses

St. Louis at Houston, 1:00 EST
St. Louis: 10-1 Over vs. non-conference opponents
Houston: 6-1 ATS off a home loss by 10+ points

Jacksonville at Arizona, 4:05 EST
Jacksonville: 14-5 ATS off a road division win
Arizona: 7-0 Over as an underdog

Miami at Oakland, 4:05 EST
Miami: 9-1 Over off a road loss
Oakland: 8-21 ATS vs. conference opponents

New York Giants at Seattle, 4:15 EST
NY Giants: 20-8 Under off a home win by 10+ points
Seattle: 2-9 ATS off a division game

Green Bay at Philadelphia, 4:15 EST
Green Bay: N/A
Philadelphia: N/A

New Orleans at New York Jets, 8:35 EST ESPN
New Orleans: 14-6 ATS vs. AFC East opponents
NY Jets: 2-8 ATS off a road loss by 21+ points

Monday, November 28th

Pittsburgh at Indianapolis, 9:00 EST ABC
Pittsburgh: 5-1 Under off a loss as a favorite
Indianapolis: 1-6 ATS off 8+ wins

11-27-05, 07:22 AM	#1 (permalink)
Tommy Now go get your shinebox Join Date: Dec 2004 Location: Sportscapper Island Posts: 15,068	NFL Sunday 11-27 Notes Patriots (6-4) @ Chiefs (6-4) New England is 3-1 since their bye, losing only to Colts; they won last three series games by 6-3-8 points, but are 0-5 vs spread this season if they won their previous game. Chiefs at home for just second time in last six games; they're 3-1 at home, blowing 24-0 lead in only loss. Pats are 5-0 if they allow less than 27 points, a figure Chiefs hit in five of their six wins. Under is 3-1 in last four games for both sides, but average second half total in last four Patriot games is 29. KC yet to beat playoff-caliber team this season. Ravens (3-7) @ Bengals (7-3) Baltimore won 11 of last 15 in series, but lost first meeting this year, 21-9, as Cincy outgained Ravens 319-240 and converted 7 of 11 on third down. Ravens didn't have Boller that day, and averaged only 3.3 yards per pass attempt. Baltimore lost four of last five games, and has yet to score 20 in game this year; they're 0-2 vs spread after a win. Bengals haven't been minus in turnovers in any game this year (they've been even four times) , while Ravens have had plus ratio just once. Under is 4-1-1 in last six Raven games, 7-3 in Bengal games. Five of last six series totals were 44+. Panthers (7-3) @ Bills (4-6) Carolina lost for first time in seven weeks at Chicago last Sunday; they've allowed just one TD on last 21 drives, and shut out last two foes in second half (23-0), but are only 9 for last 28 on third down, as Delhomme had terrible game last week. Home side is 9-1 in Buffalo games, with Bills 4-1 at home, losing only to Atlanta. Bills are 0-6 if they allow more than 17 points; they've been outrushed 291-126 in last two games, and are 6 for last 26 on third down. Bills are 0-6 if they don't have a positive turnover ratio. Bears (7-3) @ Buccaneers (7-3) Tampa won last two series games, 15-0/19-7; Bears lost five of last visits to this site, which used to be annual event when they were in same division, but Chicago has dominating defense this year, allowing only three offensive TD's on foes' last 76 drives; they've won six games in row, covered four of six as dog, and haven't lost game if they scored more than 10 points. Bucs scored 36,30 points in winning last two games; they're 4-1 at home (losing to Carolina). Bears are just 19 for last 77 on third down. Under is 7-1 in last eight Bear games. Chargers (6-4) @ Redskins (5-5) Second week in row Snyder's Redskins oppose coach he got rid of; Marty's Bolts are hot, winning last three games and covering four of last five. SD outrushed last two foes 274-154, and should be fresh after bye two weeks ago and easy win last week. Washington lost five of seven after 3-0 start; their last two losses were by total of four points. Skins are 4-1 at home. None of San Diego's four losses are by more than four points. Chargers are 0-4 in DC, 1-6 in series, with last four losses all by five or less points. Browns (4-6) @ Vikings (5-5) Red-hot Minnesota won three in row, four of five, but they were outgained 405-137 in win at Swamp, and other three wins were vs fellow NFC North stooges. Tice's defense/special teams has scored four TD's in last two games, and his offense has thrown only one pick in last five games, after tossing 12 in first five. Cleveland scored 20+ points in last three games, after scoring 20+ just twice in first seven; they're 1-4 if they allow more than 14 points. In last eight games, Cleveland has started 24 drives 80+ yards from end zone, and scored only two FGs on those 24 drives. Under is 7-1 in last eight Brown games. 49ers (2-8) @ Titans (2-8) Someone explain how Tennessee can be 7.5 points over anyone; Titans lost last five games, allowing 27.2 ppg, but their two wins are by 25-10 (Ravens) and 34-20 (Texans). This is first '05 game they've been favored in. 49ers have been awful on road (0-4, with losses by 39,17,35,8 points); only one of their last four games was decided by more than eight points, but they've competed better at home. Dorsey perked up Niner passing game last week, throwing for 226, after they hadn't passed for more than 117 in previous six games. Rams (4-6) @ Texans (1-9) Battle of two sinking ships; wouldn't be surprised if Mike Martz was coaching Texans next year. Teams have never met on field, but Rams did win bidding war for OT Pace last winter. Bulger is out with shoulder, so Rams turn to Martin and maybe Harvard rookie Fitzpatrick, who was super this summer. St Louis is 0-2 since bye, allowing 69 points (outrushed 268-81); they've turned ball over 2+ times in seven of last eight games- they had six rushing yards last week. Houston faced Chief offense last week, which is similar to Rams', and KC had 226 rushing yards. Texans outscored 52-14 in first half of their last two games. Jaguars (7-3) @ Cardinals (3-7) Arizona is 0-7 unless they win turnover battle; they have zero INT's and just three takeaways in last five games (-5)- they're 13-24 vs spread in game following their last 37 wins and have yet to rush for more than 97 yards in game this year. Jaguars won last three games by 7-27-3 points, holding foes to average of 68 yards per game on ground and outscoring them 65-21 in second half; they're 3-2 on road, with wins by 6(ot),6,3 points. Over is 7-1 in last eight Arizona games, 4-1-1 in last six Jag tilts. Dolphins (3-7) @ Raiders (4-6) Anyone else notice that lot of bad teams are favored this week? Well, favorite is 8-2 vs spread in Raider games this year, with Silver & Black 3-0 as favorite in '05. Oakland is 4-3 in last seven games after 0-3 start; they're 2-3 at home, and lost seven of last nine games vs Miami, including last five in regular season. Dolphins have QB dilemma, with Frerotte playing with injured finger, and Rosenfels not very good; they lost three in row and six of last seven games. Fish are 1-4 on road, with three losses by 10+ points, and only "road" win at LSU vs Saints. Under is 6-3 in last nine Raider games, 4-0 in Miami's last four. NYGiants (7-3) @ Seattle (8-2) Giants drafted Ron Dayne instead of Alexander, could pay price for that here, as Seattle ran ball for 175.7 ypg in three games since their bye; only one of last seven Giant foes has run for more than 106 yards. Big Blue won four of last five games; two of their three losses are by FG, with Chargers only team to beat them decisively. Seattle won last six games, has lock on NFC West, now has to keep winning to get valuable bye that top two in each conference get- hard to reach Super Bowl without it, so coaches don't let up just because they have division won. Six of last eight Seattle games went over the total. Packers (2-8) @ Eagles (4-6) Philly lost last four games, but has no more TO worries, but they're also using McMahon at QB, so huge QB mismatch here, vs Favre's Pack, which has scored more points than they've allowed, despite 2-8 record. Five of last seven Pack losses are by two or three points. Home team is 15-4 in last 19 series games. Pack lost last three series games by 3,3,30 points and also lost seven in row in Philly, with last win here coming in '62. Three of last four series games were won by three or less points. Under is 4-1 in last five Green Bay games. Saints (2-8) @ Jets (2-8) Speaking of horrible teams being favored, how about Saints as road favorite? Their last win was October 2; they lost last five road games, by 17-17-49-11 and 7 points. One plus is, in Saints' worst-ever 1-15 season, in '80, their lone win was over Jets at Shea Stadium. Bollinger starts for Jet club that has used five different QBs; they've lost last five games, four by 10+ points, and their coach appears to be looking for way out of town. Jets were outscored 57-3 last two weeks; they allowed 7,12 points in their two wins. Saints scored 17+ in six of last eight games. Steelers (7-3) @ Colts (10-0) Steelers won last nine games vs Colts, but eight of them were in Steel City. Pitt needs Big Ben back at QB to compete here; in four games he hasn't started, Steelers are 2-2, and converted just 11 for 48 (23%) on third down, compared to 35% when Ben starts. Indy running on all cylinders, with Colts converting 50 of last 80 (62.5%) third down plays. Not only is Indy 10-0, they covered six of last seven games; they're just 1-3 as home favorite, though. Steelers are 2-0 as dog this year, beat Chargers, Bengals in dog role. Last five Colt games all went over the total.
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11-27-05, 07:23 AM	#2 (permalink)
Tommy Now go get your shinebox Join Date: Dec 2004 Location: Sportscapper Island Posts: 15,068	Sunday, November 27th New England at Kansas City, 1:00 EST New England: 7-1 ATS off BB Unders Kansas City: 9-23 ATS vs. AFC East opponents Baltimore at Cincinnati, 1:00 EST Baltimore: 10-3 ATS off a win by 3 points or less Cincinnati: 7-1 Under as a favorite Carolina at Buffalo, 1:00 EST Carolina: 11-3 ATS after allowing 14 points or less Buffalo: 17-5 Under off a loss Chicago at Tampa Bay, 1:00 EST Chicago: 19-8 ATS away in November Tampa Bay: 5-14 ATS off a win San Diego at Washington, 1:00 EST San Diego: 10-0 ATS off a home win by 21+ points Washington: 11-2 Under at home off an ATS loss Cleveland at Minnesota, 1:00 EST Cleveland: N/A Minnesota: N/A San Francisco at Tennessee, 1:00 EST San Francisco: 0-6 ATS off BB ATS wins Tennessee: 9-2 Over off BB losses St. Louis at Houston, 1:00 EST St. Louis: 10-1 Over vs. non-conference opponents Houston: 6-1 ATS off a home loss by 10+ points Jacksonville at Arizona, 4:05 EST Jacksonville: 14-5 ATS off a road division win Arizona: 7-0 Over as an underdog Miami at Oakland, 4:05 EST Miami: 9-1 Over off a road loss Oakland: 8-21 ATS vs. conference opponents New York Giants at Seattle, 4:15 EST NY Giants: 20-8 Under off a home win by 10+ points Seattle: 2-9 ATS off a division game Green Bay at Philadelphia, 4:15 EST Green Bay: N/A Philadelphia: N/A New Orleans at New York Jets, 8:35 EST ESPN New Orleans: 14-6 ATS vs. AFC East opponents NY Jets: 2-8 ATS off a road loss by 21+ points Monday, November 28th Pittsburgh at Indianapolis, 9:00 EST ABC Pittsburgh: 5-1 Under off a loss as a favorite Indianapolis: 1-6 ATS off 8+ wins
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