Smart Money Method

Wigington · 11-29-05, 12:28 AM

Ok, here is another proven method in gambling tha I would like to share with everyone here. This first article is compliments of sportsinsights.com.

Smart Money Method:
The Smart Money Method requires extreme patience and precise timing. This method primarily looks for betting line movements that contradict the betting percentages. For example, SDG vs. OAK, (SDG +5 and OAK -5). Say Sports Insights is telling members that 80% of the bets being places are going on OAK, but the line moves against OAK to -4. The Smart Method bettor knows this is a sign that the “smart money”, large wagers made by single individuals, has come in on SDG. They immediately search for a sportsbook offering SDG +5, and then quickly get down. This method is enormously successful, but requires extreme patience and quick timing.

Ok now my turn!

I saw 6 plays on NCAAF last Saturday where the majority was on one side, which is usually the favorite, and the line was going down 2 and 3 points which can be huge! All 6 of these plays cashed. Same thing happened with the NE vs KC Under. Tonight was a good example for the Indy Under even though the line drop wasn't as drastic. 68% were on Over and it dropped 1 full point. When the NBA season started Sports Insights offered a 1 week free premium subscription, so I tried it. I must say it is a very imformativ site and even if you don't want to pay for the premium features, the free features can give you a little more insight as well. For opening week in the NBA, I played 5 different spreads all using this Smart Money Method where the majority usually 68-70%+ on one side and reverse line movement occurs. I went 5-0 opening week. Very impressive. Now I know I am giving you examples of how it has worked, and there were a couple of games last Saturday where it didn't. Cincinatti was one game for NCAA that I remember. I believe it only dropped .5 points and I believe the trick to betting this way is to look for significant line moves. My biggest play was Stanford +17.5 vs ND. Line opened up at 17.5 and 78% were on ND. By kickoff you could get it at 14.5. Almost 80% was on ND and it dropped 3 points? That is what we are looking for. Stanford almost won SU and covered easily.

I hope I made this easy to understand and I would love to hear everyone's comments or questions. Like I have stated, this is my 1st time to gamble on sports and I have created a system that has worked fairly well so far and anything else I can use to help me get 65-70% winnings I will take it. 70% is definately striving for a lot, but I like ot set goals. There is a guy at covers.com who does strictly this and he will do public fade plays. He told me just by using this Smart Money Method he has stood right at 65% over the last 3 seasons in NFL, NBA, NCAA. I know there are not a lot of people that visit this site, but I truly love this place and everyone that is here is my family! I want to win and I want you to win. This is the purpose of this post. I hope everyone will read it a couple times and at least consider it.
I would love to hear all comments and/or questions.

QuickNick · 11-29-05, 12:55 AM

sounds like a winner to me!!!!

Wigington · 11-29-05, 01:44 PM

At least Nick wants to make money!!

maniac_19_bg · 11-29-05, 04:43 PM

Tnx for the thoughts man! It does work this way for real. And it does work this way in all sports. But you have to be really carefull and to watch many games to choose the right ones. There are not too many of them that the books are really sure of the outcome. Well that is what this place is for, when someone notices something strange going on - put it up here for the others to cash on it

!

GL

maniac_19_bg · 11-29-05, 06:30 PM

Utah opened at +4. About 85% is on Indiana and now Utah is +3.5.

Let's see what happens.

BOL

OLD HEAD · 11-29-05, 06:51 PM

Good insight Wig.I can give you a couple of examples of what you are saying by telling you Friedmans opinon on Casino Management, sports book.To increase the 52.38% needed to overcome the sports book advantage,the great handicaper who makes his living from sports books improve their overall advantage by frequently siding and middling games.These handicappers have great insight into the way the line will move during the week prior to the game.Usually the wager is made early in the week on a particular team, once the line moves bets can be made on both teams to create an advantage.In effect handicappers risk only one unit because they will win one of their two wagers.They wager 11 units on each team.They have to win back at least 10 units on one team returning a minimum of 21 units of the 22 units wagered.If the score falls right,they can side the game winning 10 units on the the team that wins and getting their 11 units on the team that ties.If they middle that game they do even better winning 10 units on each team,for a total of 20 units.Thus they risk just one unit and can win 10 units on a side and 20 units on a middle.You are right on the money with your thinking!!Good luck.

Tommy · 11-30-05, 09:47 AM

Good read Wig Thanks bro, Learn something everyday

Wigington · 11-30-05, 05:31 PM

OLD HEAD, I understand what you are saying. Yes! you can win big if you can middle a game, but I am talking about something completely different. I guess middling a game is somewhat relevant, but I am just talking about reverse line movement. Thanks for the insight though! Middling a game is tough!

QuickNick · 11-30-05, 10:37 PM

Yes it is tough to middle a game, a TRUE MIDDLE. I don't mean Betting a favorite on the ML and taking the points with a DOG.

Tommy · 12-01-05, 12:20 PM

We are a growing family here and you are very much a part of that Wig. That is the main purpose of this forum. Everyone chip in a little to help us all make some money from the Books.

Line shopping is pretty big business to scalpers and middlers. Line shopping is quite important for any serious bettor as far as I'm concerned. I always suggest that everyone have at least 3 to 4 outs to shop lines, givith a fav or dog value. If you can get the best value and study the lines, perhaps get a middle every now and then, it beats the shit out of putting all of your apples all in one basket.

Maybe what I am saying has nothing to do with what you wrote

naught33 · 12-01-05, 02:48 PM

thx for the post wig, youre 100% right, if you have the time and the patience to track all of these %'s and line moves you definately can find at least one or two that are "off" and make good money using this method!

Wigington · 12-13-05, 05:06 PM

I want to discuss another form of reverse line movement that I came across this past Saturday in NCAAB. Oddly enough it was a reverse play for the favorite.

App St vs NC St

67% were on App St, who were the dog. Line opened at 18 in favor of NC St, but the line went up to 20. When the greater % is on the dog the line should go down, but it went up as if 67% were on the fav. Ending result NC St won by 26.
Pretty simple to understand, but wanted to point it out because there is just not one type of reverse line movement.
A lot of bettors that I have discussed using this method with, do not believe in it because you are always playing the dog, but in this case you are not. For all who enjoy using this method, here is another example of hopefully how we can increase our bankroll!

QuickNick · 12-17-05, 07:36 AM

Well if people paid attention, they would see that most DOGS cover thats why the books do so well. If most Favorites won the books could not stay open for long!!! I would not mind a GOOD system that had me playing dogs. Of course Wig's system it's not always the dog and thats ok too!!!

11-29-05, 12:28 AM	#1 (permalink)
Wigington SCI Veteran Member Join Date: Oct 2005 Posts: 1,227	Smart Money Method Ok, here is another proven method in gambling tha I would like to share with everyone here. This first article is compliments of sportsinsights.com. Smart Money Method: The Smart Money Method requires extreme patience and precise timing. This method primarily looks for betting line movements that contradict the betting percentages. For example, SDG vs. OAK, (SDG +5 and OAK -5). Say Sports Insights is telling members that 80% of the bets being places are going on OAK, but the line moves against OAK to -4. The Smart Method bettor knows this is a sign that the “smart money”, large wagers made by single individuals, has come in on SDG. They immediately search for a sportsbook offering SDG +5, and then quickly get down. This method is enormously successful, but requires extreme patience and quick timing. Ok now my turn! I saw 6 plays on NCAAF last Saturday where the majority was on one side, which is usually the favorite, and the line was going down 2 and 3 points which can be huge! All 6 of these plays cashed. Same thing happened with the NE vs KC Under. Tonight was a good example for the Indy Under even though the line drop wasn't as drastic. 68% were on Over and it dropped 1 full point. When the NBA season started Sports Insights offered a 1 week free premium subscription, so I tried it. I must say it is a very imformativ site and even if you don't want to pay for the premium features, the free features can give you a little more insight as well. For opening week in the NBA, I played 5 different spreads all using this Smart Money Method where the majority usually 68-70%+ on one side and reverse line movement occurs. I went 5-0 opening week. Very impressive. Now I know I am giving you examples of how it has worked, and there were a couple of games last Saturday where it didn't. Cincinatti was one game for NCAA that I remember. I believe it only dropped .5 points and I believe the trick to betting this way is to look for significant line moves. My biggest play was Stanford +17.5 vs ND. Line opened up at 17.5 and 78% were on ND. By kickoff you could get it at 14.5. Almost 80% was on ND and it dropped 3 points? That is what we are looking for. Stanford almost won SU and covered easily. I hope I made this easy to understand and I would love to hear everyone's comments or questions. Like I have stated, this is my 1st time to gamble on sports and I have created a system that has worked fairly well so far and anything else I can use to help me get 65-70% winnings I will take it. 70% is definately striving for a lot, but I like ot set goals. There is a guy at covers.com who does strictly this and he will do public fade plays. He told me just by using this Smart Money Method he has stood right at 65% over the last 3 seasons in NFL, NBA, NCAA. I know there are not a lot of people that visit this site, but I truly love this place and everyone that is here is my family! I want to win and I want you to win. This is the purpose of this post. I hope everyone will read it a couple times and at least consider it. I would love to hear all comments and/or questions.
Status: Offline

11-29-05, 12:55 AM	#2 (permalink)
QuickNick SCI Senior Member Join Date: Mar 2005 Location: New Orleans Posts: 9,637	sounds like a winner to me!!!! __________________ Nick
Status: Offline

11-29-05, 01:44 PM	#3 (permalink)
Wigington SCI Veteran Member Join Date: Oct 2005 Posts: 1,227	At least Nick wants to make money!!
Status: Offline

11-29-05, 04:43 PM	#4 (permalink)
maniac_19_bg SCI Member Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 111	Tnx for the thoughts man! It does work this way for real. And it does work this way in all sports. But you have to be really carefull and to watch many games to choose the right ones. There are not too many of them that the books are really sure of the outcome. Well that is what this place is for, when someone notices something strange going on - put it up here for the others to cash on it ! GL
Status: Offline

11-29-05, 06:30 PM	#5 (permalink)
maniac_19_bg SCI Member Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 111	Utah opened at +4. About 85% is on Indiana and now Utah is +3.5. Let's see what happens. BOL
Status: Offline

11-29-05, 06:51 PM	#6 (permalink)
OLD HEAD SCI Veteran Member Join Date: Jul 2005 Location: JOISY !! Posts: 1,516	Good insight Wig.I can give you a couple of examples of what you are saying by telling you Friedmans opinon on Casino Management, sports book.To increase the 52.38% needed to overcome the sports book advantage,the great handicaper who makes his living from sports books improve their overall advantage by frequently siding and middling games.These handicappers have great insight into the way the line will move during the week prior to the game.Usually the wager is made early in the week on a particular team, once the line moves bets can be made on both teams to create an advantage.In effect handicappers risk only one unit because they will win one of their two wagers.They wager 11 units on each team.They have to win back at least 10 units on one team returning a minimum of 21 units of the 22 units wagered.If the score falls right,they can side the game winning 10 units on the the team that wins and getting their 11 units on the team that ties.If they middle that game they do even better winning 10 units on each team,for a total of 20 units.Thus they risk just one unit and can win 10 units on a side and 20 units on a middle.You are right on the money with your thinking!!Good luck.
Status: Offline

11-30-05, 09:47 AM	#7 (permalink)
Tommy Now go get your shinebox Join Date: Dec 2004 Location: Sportscapper Island Posts: 15,068	Good read Wig Thanks bro, Learn something everyday
Status: Online

11-30-05, 05:31 PM	#8 (permalink)
Wigington SCI Veteran Member Join Date: Oct 2005 Posts: 1,227	OLD HEAD, I understand what you are saying. Yes! you can win big if you can middle a game, but I am talking about something completely different. I guess middling a game is somewhat relevant, but I am just talking about reverse line movement. Thanks for the insight though! Middling a game is tough!
Status: Offline

11-30-05, 10:37 PM	#9 (permalink)
QuickNick SCI Senior Member Join Date: Mar 2005 Location: New Orleans Posts: 9,637	Yes it is tough to middle a game, a TRUE MIDDLE. I don't mean Betting a favorite on the ML and taking the points with a DOG. __________________ Nick
Status: Offline

12-01-05, 12:20 PM	#10 (permalink)
Tommy Now go get your shinebox Join Date: Dec 2004 Location: Sportscapper Island Posts: 15,068	We are a growing family here and you are very much a part of that Wig. That is the main purpose of this forum. Everyone chip in a little to help us all make some money from the Books. Line shopping is pretty big business to scalpers and middlers. Line shopping is quite important for any serious bettor as far as I'm concerned. I always suggest that everyone have at least 3 to 4 outs to shop lines, givith a fav or dog value. If you can get the best value and study the lines, perhaps get a middle every now and then, it beats the shit out of putting all of your apples all in one basket. Maybe what I am saying has nothing to do with what you wrote
Status: Online

12-01-05, 02:48 PM	#11 (permalink)
naught33 SCI Forum Moderator Join Date: Dec 2004 Location: Scarsdale, NY Posts: 13,666	thx for the post wig, youre 100% right, if you have the time and the patience to track all of these %'s and line moves you definately can find at least one or two that are "off" and make good money using this method! __________________ -naught33 "You miss 100% of all the shots you don't take"-Wayne Gretzky "No one, and I mean no one, comes into our house and pushes us around"-coach from the movie Rudy
Status: Offline

12-13-05, 05:06 PM	#12 (permalink)
Wigington SCI Veteran Member Join Date: Oct 2005 Posts: 1,227	I want to discuss another form of reverse line movement that I came across this past Saturday in NCAAB. Oddly enough it was a reverse play for the favorite. App St vs NC St 67% were on App St, who were the dog. Line opened at 18 in favor of NC St, but the line went up to 20. When the greater % is on the dog the line should go down, but it went up as if 67% were on the fav. Ending result NC St won by 26. Pretty simple to understand, but wanted to point it out because there is just not one type of reverse line movement. A lot of bettors that I have discussed using this method with, do not believe in it because you are always playing the dog, but in this case you are not. For all who enjoy using this method, here is another example of hopefully how we can increase our bankroll!
Status: Offline

12-17-05, 07:36 AM	#13 (permalink)
QuickNick SCI Senior Member Join Date: Mar 2005 Location: New Orleans Posts: 9,637	Well if people paid attention, they would see that most DOGS cover thats why the books do so well. If most Favorites won the books could not stay open for long!!! I would not mind a GOOD system that had me playing dogs. Of course Wig's system it's not always the dog and thats ok too!!! __________________ Nick
Status: Offline