NFL WEEK 15 Notes and Trends

Tommy · 12-17-05, 10:23 AM

Buccaneers (9-4) @ Patriots (8-5)
Third week in row on road for Tampa, which won last two weeks at divisional foes and are 4-1 last five weeks, 3-1 as underdog, and has ust one loss by more than five points. Patriots also won four of last five, with all four wins by 7+ points; they outscored last three foes 44-14 in second half. Brady converted 31 of last 58 on third down, while defense allowed just one TD on last 20 drives. Favorites are 6-1 vs spread, the week after playing Buffalo. Under is 4-1 in last five Patriot games, 3-0 in last three Tampa games. Brady questionable for Pats with banged-up shoulder; Flutie is backup.

Chiefs (8-5) @ Giants (9-4)
Desperate times for Chiefs, who let one slip away last week in Dallas, now face Giant team that is 6-2 in its last eight games (5-2 vs spread in last seven), 6-1 at home, 7-3 as favorite and has run ball for 143 yards a game over last three weeks, but had many injuries to OL last week, and also lost LB Pierce, a key defender. Chiefs gained 420+ total yards in each of last four games, running for 329 yards in last two, but they're 0-2 on carpet (3-14/28-31). Teams are 0-8 vs spread the week after playing Dallas (0-5 as dog, 2-6 SU).

Broncos (10-3) @ Bills (4-9)
Holcomb back at QB for banged-up Losman (shoulder) which give Buffalo better chance to win. Home side won seven of last eight series games, but Denver is here for first time since '97. Broncos allowed 24+ points in their losses, 21 or less in wins; their two games on turf were decided by total of four points. Denver is 7-2 vs spread after win this year. Buffalo lost its last four games, and scored just one TD in its last 19 drives at home; they've been outscored 65-12 in second half of their last four games, and are 19 for last 63 on third down.

Steelers (8-5) @ Vikings (8-5)
Minnesota home dog despite six-game win streak (6-0 vs spread); they won last five home games (four by 12+ points), have 19 takeaways in last five games (+12), and allowed just three TDs on last 38 drives. Steelers ended 3-game skid last week on muddy home field; they're 1-1 on carpet this year, and 0-4 if they allow 23+ points (8-1 if not). In their five losses, Steeler opponents started 14 of 65 drives (21.5%) in Pitt territory; in their eight wins, they started 8 of 76 drives (10.5%) in Steeler territory. Last four Viking games stayed under, as did three of last four Steeler games.

Chargers (8-5) @ Colts (13-0)
Chargers had five-game win streak snapped by Miami last week; they've scored 3+ TDs in each of last six games, and are 18 for last 32 on third down. Bolts lost in OT on this field a year ago; their five losses this season are by 4-3-2-3-2 points, so 7.5 an attractive take- they're 4-2 on road, with both losses by FG. That said, Indy is 13-0, with home wins by 7-7-17-14-19-32; they have home field wrapped up thru AFC playoffs, but hard to tell how much history means to them, since perfect year now distinct possibility. In last eight games, Indy been up at least eight points at half. Dogs are 0-5 vs spread week after playing Miami.

49ers (2-11) @ Jaguars (9-4)
49ers are 0-6 on road, losing by 39-17-35-8-11-38 points; they're 1-5 as road dog, 7 for last 36 on third down, -7 in turnovers last four games and have been outscored 55-11 in second half last three weeks. Jags are 4-2 at home, with only one win by more than dozen points; they covered four of last five games, but have just one takeaway in last two games, are 8 for last 24 on third down and could have letdown after full effort in Colt loss last week. Jax has soft finish to season, so no excuse for them not to make playoffs. Jags won only series meeting 41-3 on this field six years ago.

Seahawks (11-2) @ Titans (4-9)
Seattle might have quietest nine-game win streak (6-3 vs pointspread) in history of NFL; they outscored last two foes 83-3, and Titans no better than those two teams. Seattle has 281 rushing yards last two games, and allowed only eight TDs on last 94 opponent drives. Titans are 0-3 after win this year, allowing 32.3 ppg; they have zero TDs on last 20 drives and haven't scored first half TD in last three games. Over is 7-4 in Seattle's last 11 games (5-1 on road), 4-1 in last five Titan home games. Seattle won last 4 road games, by 6-14-2-42 points.

Cardinals (4-9) @ Texans (1-12)
Houston lost last three games in final seconds, fueling rumors they're tanking games to get Reggie Bush; you know you're bad when 4-9 Arizona team is road fave. Texans lost last six games, despite covering five of last seven; they haven't scored second half TD in last three games, and allowed 35.4 ppg in their five home losses (16 in only win). Cards won last two road games, but have yet to run for more than 97 yards in game this season. Houston has one TD on last 25 drives, allowed one on last 23. This is teams' first-ever meeting.

NY Jets (3-10) @ Dolphins (6-7)
Jets are 0-7 on road (0-7 as road dog), with no losses by less than 10 points; they haven't scored offensive TD in first half of last five games and gained less than four yards per pass attempt in last two games. Miami scored 26.7 ppg in winning last three games; they have nine TDs on last 38 drives, but are 0-2 as a favorite and are 0-7 if they score less than 21 points. Teams split last six meetings, after Jets had won previous eight; NY won first game 17-7 in Week 2, as Jets had two 80+-yard TD drives. Under is 5-2 in last seven Miami games, 4-1 in Jets' last five.

Panthers (9-4) @ Saints (3-10)
Not only do Saints have short work week after Monday night loss, but San Antonio has been taken over this week by women's volleyball Final Four, so Lord knows where Saints are practicing this week- they won 23-20 at Carolina in season opener that seems like long time ago, as Panthers started seven of their eight drives 80+ yards from end zone. Five of last six series games decided by six or less points; this spread has jumped all the way to 9. Saints lost first three games at LSU by 21-6/20-17/10-3 scores. Last five Panther games stayed under the total. Bauman starts at QB for Saints, as Brooks finally put out of his misery.

Cowboys (8-5) @ Redskins (7-6)
Dallas had 13-0 lead over Skins in Week 2 Monday nighter, before Brunell hit two long passes, and Skins stole road win, only time they've won this season (1-5) when scoring less than 20 points. Washington just won pair of road games, after scoring just 15 ppg in losing last two at home; they're 2-14 in last sixteen games vs Dallas, with their last season sweep ten years ago. Cowboys stole game vs KC last week; they lost three of last four on road, with six of their away games decided by seven or less points. Under is 7-3 in last ten Dallas games, 6-1 in last seven Redskin tilts.

Bengals (10-3) @ Lions (4-9)
Lions lost four in row and six of last seven games; they've scored just four TDs on last 39 drives, have no takeaways in last two games and averaged less than five yards per pass attempt in last three, as weak-armed, 37-year old Garcia not able to make plays. Six of last eight Lion games stayed under total. Cincy still dueling Denver for #2 seed and critical first-round bye in playoffs; they won three in row and five of last six games, but allowed 31.3 ppg in four games since their bye. Only +26 turnover ratio (no giveaways last two games) keeping them on top.

Browns (4-9) @ Raiders (4-9)
Confident that Browns still playing hard for Crennel; not sure if Raiders are doing same (outscored 37-7 in second half of last two games); they have zero takeaways in last two games, just one pick in last nine. Oakland lost five of last six games and three in row, by 12-24-16 points, allowing 152 rushing yards per game, with -6 turnover ratio. Browns are 5-3 vs spread after loss this season. Eight of last 32 drives by Raider foes started in Oakland territory. Under is 8-2-1 in last 11 Cleveland games, 3-1 in last four Raider games.

Eagles (5-8) @ Rams (5-8)
Two sinking ships meet; Rams lost four of last five games, and trailed 24-3 at half in the win; they've allowed 29.4 ppg last five weeks, and have given up 3+ offensive TD's in each of last six games (lousy tacklers). Eagles lost six of last seven games are 1-5 on road (all losses by 7+ points) and are just 14 for last 47 on third down. Philly scored just three TD's on last 40 drives are 14 for last 47 on third down and haven't scored second half TD in last three games. Rams scored two TD's in two Fitzpatrick starts, with him running for both. Rutgers-Harvard QB matchup not overly appealing.

Falcons (8-5) @ Bears (9-4)
Chicago won seven of last eight series games, with last four series totals all 34 or less. Vick will play despite bruised ribs, challenging Chicago defense that has 21 takeaways in nine wins (2.33), six in four losses (1.50), and has held last five foes under 250 total yards. Problem for Chicago is their offense; they've scored four TD's on last 56 drives, are 3 for last 23 on third down, and haven't completed more than half their passes in any of last three games. Atlanta has to ravel on short week, giving Vick's ribs one less day to heal. Under is 10-1 in last eleven Bear games, as last five stayed under.

Packers (3-10) @ Ravens (4-9)
Green Bay won last three series games and five of last six; this is their first trip to Baltimore since they visited the Colts in 80's. Pack is 0-2 after win this season, with both losses by FG. Baltimore has star S Reed back, so defense is better (allowed 15 or less points in three of last four games, one TD on last 22 drives), but Boller is awful QB, unable to make plays last week that should have pulled upset at Denver. All six Raven home games stayed under total, as have seven of last eight Green Bay games; Pack scored two TD's on last 25 drives, allowed three on last 47 drives.

Tommy · 12-17-05, 10:25 AM

Saturday, December 17th

Tampa Bay at New England, 1:30 EST FOX
Tampa Bay: 6-15 ATS off a straight up win
New England: 17-5 ATS as a home favorite

Kansas City at New York Giants, 5:00 EST CBS
Kansas City: 6-0 Over in December
NY Giants: 6-0 ATS at home off an Over

Denver at Buffalo, 8:30 EST ESPN
Denver: 6-0 ATS off a home win
Buffalo: 6-0 Over in December

Sunday, December 18th

Pittsburgh at Minnesota, 1:00 EST
Pittsburgh: 4-13 ATS as a road favorite of 3 points or less
Minnesota: 18-5 ATS as a home underdog

San Diego at Indianapolis, 1:00 EST
San Diego: 20-6 ATS in dome stadiums
Indianapolis: 20-8 Over off an Over

San Francisco at Jacksonville, 1:00 EST
San Francisco: 2-9 ATS after allowing 30+ points
Jacksonville: 15-5 ATS at home vs. non-conference opponents

Seattle at Tennessee, 1:00 EST
Seattle: 2-10 ATS off a division game
Tennessee: 13-4 ATS at home vs. non-conference opponents

Arizona at Houston, 1:00 EST
Arizona: 6-16 ATS in road games
Houston: 6-0 Under at home in December

New York Jets at Miami, 1:00 EST
NY Jets: 12-2 Over off a road game
Miami: 0-6 ATS off a win as an underdog

Carolina at New Orleans, 1:00 EST
Carolina: 5-1 ATS off a loss by 10+ points
New Orleans: 5-1 Under off BB division games

Dallas at Washington, 4:15 EST
Dallas: 19-8 ATS vs. Washington
Washington: 20-9 Under in home games

Cincinnati at Detroit, 4:05 EST
Cincinnati: 1-6 ATS off 3+ wins
Detroit: 9-2 ATS off a win by 6 points or less

Cleveland at Oakland, 4:05 EST
Cleveland: 12-3 Under with a line of +3 to -3
Oakland: 2-8 ATS vs. conference opponents

Philadelphia at St. Louis, 1:00 EST
Philadelphia: 6-0 ATS off BB home games
St. Louis: 5-17 ATS vs. NFC East opponents

Atlanta at Chicago, 8:30 EST ESPN
Atlanta: 0-4 ATS vs. Chicago
Chicago: 10-1 Under off a non-conference game

Monday, December 19th

Green Bay at Baltimore, 9:00 EST ABC
Green Bay: 6-0 Under after losing 2 of their last 3 games
Baltimore: 7-1 Under off a straight up loss

12-17-05, 10:23 AM	#1 (permalink)
Tommy Now go get your shinebox Join Date: Dec 2004 Location: Sportscapper Island Posts: 15,068	NFL WEEK 15 Notes and Trends Buccaneers (9-4) @ Patriots (8-5) Third week in row on road for Tampa, which won last two weeks at divisional foes and are 4-1 last five weeks, 3-1 as underdog, and has ust one loss by more than five points. Patriots also won four of last five, with all four wins by 7+ points; they outscored last three foes 44-14 in second half. Brady converted 31 of last 58 on third down, while defense allowed just one TD on last 20 drives. Favorites are 6-1 vs spread, the week after playing Buffalo. Under is 4-1 in last five Patriot games, 3-0 in last three Tampa games. Brady questionable for Pats with banged-up shoulder; Flutie is backup. Chiefs (8-5) @ Giants (9-4) Desperate times for Chiefs, who let one slip away last week in Dallas, now face Giant team that is 6-2 in its last eight games (5-2 vs spread in last seven), 6-1 at home, 7-3 as favorite and has run ball for 143 yards a game over last three weeks, but had many injuries to OL last week, and also lost LB Pierce, a key defender. Chiefs gained 420+ total yards in each of last four games, running for 329 yards in last two, but they're 0-2 on carpet (3-14/28-31). Teams are 0-8 vs spread the week after playing Dallas (0-5 as dog, 2-6 SU). Broncos (10-3) @ Bills (4-9) Holcomb back at QB for banged-up Losman (shoulder) which give Buffalo better chance to win. Home side won seven of last eight series games, but Denver is here for first time since '97. Broncos allowed 24+ points in their losses, 21 or less in wins; their two games on turf were decided by total of four points. Denver is 7-2 vs spread after win this year. Buffalo lost its last four games, and scored just one TD in its last 19 drives at home; they've been outscored 65-12 in second half of their last four games, and are 19 for last 63 on third down. Steelers (8-5) @ Vikings (8-5) Minnesota home dog despite six-game win streak (6-0 vs spread); they won last five home games (four by 12+ points), have 19 takeaways in last five games (+12), and allowed just three TDs on last 38 drives. Steelers ended 3-game skid last week on muddy home field; they're 1-1 on carpet this year, and 0-4 if they allow 23+ points (8-1 if not). In their five losses, Steeler opponents started 14 of 65 drives (21.5%) in Pitt territory; in their eight wins, they started 8 of 76 drives (10.5%) in Steeler territory. Last four Viking games stayed under, as did three of last four Steeler games. Chargers (8-5) @ Colts (13-0) Chargers had five-game win streak snapped by Miami last week; they've scored 3+ TDs in each of last six games, and are 18 for last 32 on third down. Bolts lost in OT on this field a year ago; their five losses this season are by 4-3-2-3-2 points, so 7.5 an attractive take- they're 4-2 on road, with both losses by FG. That said, Indy is 13-0, with home wins by 7-7-17-14-19-32; they have home field wrapped up thru AFC playoffs, but hard to tell how much history means to them, since perfect year now distinct possibility. In last eight games, Indy been up at least eight points at half. Dogs are 0-5 vs spread week after playing Miami. 49ers (2-11) @ Jaguars (9-4) 49ers are 0-6 on road, losing by 39-17-35-8-11-38 points; they're 1-5 as road dog, 7 for last 36 on third down, -7 in turnovers last four games and have been outscored 55-11 in second half last three weeks. Jags are 4-2 at home, with only one win by more than dozen points; they covered four of last five games, but have just one takeaway in last two games, are 8 for last 24 on third down and could have letdown after full effort in Colt loss last week. Jax has soft finish to season, so no excuse for them not to make playoffs. Jags won only series meeting 41-3 on this field six years ago. Seahawks (11-2) @ Titans (4-9) Seattle might have quietest nine-game win streak (6-3 vs pointspread) in history of NFL; they outscored last two foes 83-3, and Titans no better than those two teams. Seattle has 281 rushing yards last two games, and allowed only eight TDs on last 94 opponent drives. Titans are 0-3 after win this year, allowing 32.3 ppg; they have zero TDs on last 20 drives and haven't scored first half TD in last three games. Over is 7-4 in Seattle's last 11 games (5-1 on road), 4-1 in last five Titan home games. Seattle won last 4 road games, by 6-14-2-42 points. Cardinals (4-9) @ Texans (1-12) Houston lost last three games in final seconds, fueling rumors they're tanking games to get Reggie Bush; you know you're bad when 4-9 Arizona team is road fave. Texans lost last six games, despite covering five of last seven; they haven't scored second half TD in last three games, and allowed 35.4 ppg in their five home losses (16 in only win). Cards won last two road games, but have yet to run for more than 97 yards in game this season. Houston has one TD on last 25 drives, allowed one on last 23. This is teams' first-ever meeting. NY Jets (3-10) @ Dolphins (6-7) Jets are 0-7 on road (0-7 as road dog), with no losses by less than 10 points; they haven't scored offensive TD in first half of last five games and gained less than four yards per pass attempt in last two games. Miami scored 26.7 ppg in winning last three games; they have nine TDs on last 38 drives, but are 0-2 as a favorite and are 0-7 if they score less than 21 points. Teams split last six meetings, after Jets had won previous eight; NY won first game 17-7 in Week 2, as Jets had two 80+-yard TD drives. Under is 5-2 in last seven Miami games, 4-1 in Jets' last five. Panthers (9-4) @ Saints (3-10) Not only do Saints have short work week after Monday night loss, but San Antonio has been taken over this week by women's volleyball Final Four, so Lord knows where Saints are practicing this week- they won 23-20 at Carolina in season opener that seems like long time ago, as Panthers started seven of their eight drives 80+ yards from end zone. Five of last six series games decided by six or less points; this spread has jumped all the way to 9. Saints lost first three games at LSU by 21-6/20-17/10-3 scores. Last five Panther games stayed under the total. Bauman starts at QB for Saints, as Brooks finally put out of his misery. Cowboys (8-5) @ Redskins (7-6) Dallas had 13-0 lead over Skins in Week 2 Monday nighter, before Brunell hit two long passes, and Skins stole road win, only time they've won this season (1-5) when scoring less than 20 points. Washington just won pair of road games, after scoring just 15 ppg in losing last two at home; they're 2-14 in last sixteen games vs Dallas, with their last season sweep ten years ago. Cowboys stole game vs KC last week; they lost three of last four on road, with six of their away games decided by seven or less points. Under is 7-3 in last ten Dallas games, 6-1 in last seven Redskin tilts. Bengals (10-3) @ Lions (4-9) Lions lost four in row and six of last seven games; they've scored just four TDs on last 39 drives, have no takeaways in last two games and averaged less than five yards per pass attempt in last three, as weak-armed, 37-year old Garcia not able to make plays. Six of last eight Lion games stayed under total. Cincy still dueling Denver for #2 seed and critical first-round bye in playoffs; they won three in row and five of last six games, but allowed 31.3 ppg in four games since their bye. Only +26 turnover ratio (no giveaways last two games) keeping them on top. Browns (4-9) @ Raiders (4-9) Confident that Browns still playing hard for Crennel; not sure if Raiders are doing same (outscored 37-7 in second half of last two games); they have zero takeaways in last two games, just one pick in last nine. Oakland lost five of last six games and three in row, by 12-24-16 points, allowing 152 rushing yards per game, with -6 turnover ratio. Browns are 5-3 vs spread after loss this season. Eight of last 32 drives by Raider foes started in Oakland territory. Under is 8-2-1 in last 11 Cleveland games, 3-1 in last four Raider games. Eagles (5-8) @ Rams (5-8) Two sinking ships meet; Rams lost four of last five games, and trailed 24-3 at half in the win; they've allowed 29.4 ppg last five weeks, and have given up 3+ offensive TD's in each of last six games (lousy tacklers). Eagles lost six of last seven games are 1-5 on road (all losses by 7+ points) and are just 14 for last 47 on third down. Philly scored just three TD's on last 40 drives are 14 for last 47 on third down and haven't scored second half TD in last three games. Rams scored two TD's in two Fitzpatrick starts, with him running for both. Rutgers-Harvard QB matchup not overly appealing. Falcons (8-5) @ Bears (9-4) Chicago won seven of last eight series games, with last four series totals all 34 or less. Vick will play despite bruised ribs, challenging Chicago defense that has 21 takeaways in nine wins (2.33), six in four losses (1.50), and has held last five foes under 250 total yards. Problem for Chicago is their offense; they've scored four TD's on last 56 drives, are 3 for last 23 on third down, and haven't completed more than half their passes in any of last three games. Atlanta has to ravel on short week, giving Vick's ribs one less day to heal. Under is 10-1 in last eleven Bear games, as last five stayed under. Packers (3-10) @ Ravens (4-9) Green Bay won last three series games and five of last six; this is their first trip to Baltimore since they visited the Colts in 80's. Pack is 0-2 after win this season, with both losses by FG. Baltimore has star S Reed back, so defense is better (allowed 15 or less points in three of last four games, one TD on last 22 drives), but Boller is awful QB, unable to make plays last week that should have pulled upset at Denver. All six Raven home games stayed under total, as have seven of last eight Green Bay games; Pack scored two TD's on last 25 drives, allowed three on last 47 drives.
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12-17-05, 10:25 AM	#2 (permalink)
Tommy Now go get your shinebox Join Date: Dec 2004 Location: Sportscapper Island Posts: 15,068	Saturday, December 17th Tampa Bay at New England, 1:30 EST FOX Tampa Bay: 6-15 ATS off a straight up win New England: 17-5 ATS as a home favorite Kansas City at New York Giants, 5:00 EST CBS Kansas City: 6-0 Over in December NY Giants: 6-0 ATS at home off an Over Denver at Buffalo, 8:30 EST ESPN Denver: 6-0 ATS off a home win Buffalo: 6-0 Over in December Sunday, December 18th Pittsburgh at Minnesota, 1:00 EST Pittsburgh: 4-13 ATS as a road favorite of 3 points or less Minnesota: 18-5 ATS as a home underdog San Diego at Indianapolis, 1:00 EST San Diego: 20-6 ATS in dome stadiums Indianapolis: 20-8 Over off an Over San Francisco at Jacksonville, 1:00 EST San Francisco: 2-9 ATS after allowing 30+ points Jacksonville: 15-5 ATS at home vs. non-conference opponents Seattle at Tennessee, 1:00 EST Seattle: 2-10 ATS off a division game Tennessee: 13-4 ATS at home vs. non-conference opponents Arizona at Houston, 1:00 EST Arizona: 6-16 ATS in road games Houston: 6-0 Under at home in December New York Jets at Miami, 1:00 EST NY Jets: 12-2 Over off a road game Miami: 0-6 ATS off a win as an underdog Carolina at New Orleans, 1:00 EST Carolina: 5-1 ATS off a loss by 10+ points New Orleans: 5-1 Under off BB division games Dallas at Washington, 4:15 EST Dallas: 19-8 ATS vs. Washington Washington: 20-9 Under in home games Cincinnati at Detroit, 4:05 EST Cincinnati: 1-6 ATS off 3+ wins Detroit: 9-2 ATS off a win by 6 points or less Cleveland at Oakland, 4:05 EST Cleveland: 12-3 Under with a line of +3 to -3 Oakland: 2-8 ATS vs. conference opponents Philadelphia at St. Louis, 1:00 EST Philadelphia: 6-0 ATS off BB home games St. Louis: 5-17 ATS vs. NFC East opponents Atlanta at Chicago, 8:30 EST ESPN Atlanta: 0-4 ATS vs. Chicago Chicago: 10-1 Under off a non-conference game Monday, December 19th Green Bay at Baltimore, 9:00 EST ABC Green Bay: 6-0 Under after losing 2 of their last 3 games Baltimore: 7-1 Under off a straight up loss
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