[naught33]

The Derby horse-by-horseBy Ed McNamara
Special to ESPN.com


AFLEET ALEX
He's been running big races since late June, and his only bad one in nine career starts came two back in the Rebel, when he reportedly had a lung infection. Bounced back with a smasher in the Arkansas Derby, where he won by eight lengths and flew the final furlong in less than 12 seconds. If he repeats that effort at Churchill Downs, he'll probably win, but can he? It's a lot to ask. His price won't be that good, and I'm concerned that first-time Derby rider Jeremy Rose might be feeling the pressure. His shaky ride on Breeders' Cup day might have cost Afleet Alex the victory in the Juvenile. Afleet Alex will be in my exotics but I won't play him to win.


ANDROMEDA'S HERO
By far the weakest of trainer Nick Zito's five entries, he's shown nothing to indicate he fits with the best horses of his generation. Winning the Sam Davis Stakes against nobodies at Tampa Bay Downs shouldn't guarantee a ticket to Louisville. He should stay in the barn.


BANDINI
Justified Todd Pletcher's confidence by easily winning the Blue Grass, the deepest Derby prep this year. Has a great distance pedigree (by 2000 Kentucky Derby winner Fusaichi Pegasus out of a Dixieland Band mare), so unlike many of his rivals, the mile and a quarter shouldn't be a problem. Coming back on three weeks' rest for the first time is a bit of a concern. His tracking style should fit well in a field where most of the contenders are front-running or pace-pressing types. I'm glad I have a future bet on him at 14-1, because his price May 7 should range from 7-2 to 9-2. Major threat to win.


BELLAMY ROAD
Went from obscurity to the top of the polls with his unprecedented 17?-length runaway in stakes-record time (1:47.16) in the Wood Memorial. He's almost sure to be the Derby favorite, probably about 5-2. Has had only two preps this season, and only one horse since 1947 has won the Derby with such a light schedule. Although he may be the fastest in the field, there is plenty of other speed to keep him busy early. Except in his debut, when he was sixth early before drawing off to win by 7? at 6 furlongs, all his wins have been on the lead. He's also never been in a fight, hasn't passed a horse since his debut, and might bounce off his giant figure in the Wood. Might be a freak and overcome it all, but I'll be staying away from the obvious chalk. I played him in the Wood but I won't be on him at Churchill.


BUZZARDS BAY
How touching that a horse trained by Jeff Mullins, who had said anyone who bets on horses is an idiot, won the Santa Anita Derby for the third consecutive year. He'd won only once going into the West Coast's top prep, and I think his 30-1 score was a fluke. Throw him out.


COIN SILVER
He pulled a surprise on a wet track in the Lexington, so his connections will take a stab at the roses. Might be part of the early pace, but that's about all. No chance.


CLOSING ARGUMENT
Apparently, a distant third in the Blue Grass was enough to convince his connections he belongs in the Derby. Seems to lack the pedigree to get 1? miles, and it's looking like his upset in the Holy Bull in January at Gulfstream was an aberration. He doesn't belong.


DON'T GET MAD
Looked great Saturday winning the mile Derby Trial around one turn, making him 3-for-3 at Churchill. Unfortunately for him, he's 0-for-2 around two turns, both at Santa Anita. May not get into the field because he's near the bottom in graded-stakes earnings. If he gets in, and you like to stab in the exotics, you could make a case for him getting up for to be a distant third or fourth if the pace is very hot.


FLOWER ALLEY
Freaked on a wet track in the Lane's End, then was best of the rest when far behind Afleet Alex in the Arkansas Derby. Looks like a lightly raced colt with a decent future, but I can't see him doing much on Derby Day.


GENERAL JOHN B.
Ran second at 64-1 in a weak Santa Anita Derby, so suddenly he's on the Triple Crown trail. His biggest win was in the Turf Paradise Derby, never a springboard to glory. I hope he'll stay out of the way of the real runners.


GIACOMO
He's 1-for-7, so he should be entered in a non-winners-of-1 allowance on May 7 at Santa Anita, not in the Kentucky Derby. Has lost five in a row and was up the track in the Santa Anita Derby. Why bother?


GOING WILD
After awful efforts in the Wood and Lexington, it looks like he needs some time off. Instead, D. Wayne Lukas is still considering the Derby. Why?


GREATER GOOD
Ran a rare dud when a distant fifth in the Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn, where his previous two stakes wins were sharp. I'm willing to forgive that race and think he could return to form at Churchill, where he was first and third in stakes last year. I can't see this guy winning, but he's honest and he'll be a huge price. He belongs underneath in exactas, triples and superfectas.


GREELEY'S GALAXY
Won the Illinois Derby in only his fourth start, earning strong final-time and late-pace figures after stalking and taking command on the far turn. He's trained by longtime California fixture Warren Stute, a sharp old operator making a rare appearance in a national race. This inexperienced colt is moving forward on the numbers and will be ignored. Working well at Churchill, but lack of 2-year-old experience is a big minus. Can't play him on top but could inflate the exotics even if one of the favorites wins.


HIGH FLY
He's 5-for-6, won both major preps in Florida, gets Jerry Bailey and has very good figures. I'm not certain he wants 1? miles, though, but if he's 5-1 or better, which he should be, I'll be giving him a long look. His tactical speed will give Bailey options, either to be near the pace if it's not quick or to rate if it's fast. Has a strong chance to work out a good trip, always crucial in the rough, grueling Derby. Strikes me as an overlay with a lot of plusses. He's in the mix and could win.


HIGH LIMIT
The rating experiment in the Blue Grass didn't work, so expect Ramon Dominguez to go for the early lead. Even if he doesn't finish in the money, High Limit could have the most impact on the Derby, because if he and Bellamy Road go out winging early, the very fast High Limit could take the favorite down. All of his three wins were on the lead, and that's where I expect him to be if he avoids trouble heading into the first turn. I won't be playing him but I'll be watching him closely.


NOBLE CAUSEWAY
Like his stablemate, High Fly, he'll be downgraded for trying to win the Derby off a five-week layoff. No horse has won the Derby off a break of longer than 30 days since Needles in 1956, but how many have tried? Very few. Has probably the best distance pedigree in the field (Giant's Causeway out of a Seeking the Gold mare). He also may be the one true closer in the bunch, and he gets three-time Derby winner Gary Stevens to ride. Look closely at the replay of the Florida Derby and watch his big, sweeping move on the turn. I think he's more likely to win the Preakness than the Derby, but if he fires and the pace is hot, you never can tell. I have him at 19-1 on a future bet, so I may not play him to win on Derby Day, but place, show and exotic bets could be most attractive. He'll be a good price (10-1, maybe) with a definite chance to pull the upset.


SORT IT OUT
Even though he ran a non-threatening second behind Coin Silver in the sloppy Lexington, three-time Derby winner Bob Baffert will push on to Louisville. This horse has no chance, but I guess Baffert doesn't want to miss the race he used to own for the second straight year.


SPANISH CHESTNUT
Doesn't deserve to be in the Derby, but he'll be entered to serve as a pacesetter for Bandini, also owned by Derrick Smith and Michael Tabor. Did his job as rabbit well for Bandini in the Blue Grass, when he kept front-runner High Limit from making the lead. Should put added heat on Bellamy Road and High Limit and ensure strong early fractions.


SUN KING
Never got involved in the Blue Grass, where he was wide and far back most of the way. I thought he was being overrated going into that race, and now I think he'll become an afterthought whose odds will shoot up. I'm willing to ignore his Blue Grass. His trip was terrible, and it was his first bad race since his debut at Saratoga, so maybe it was just a bad day or he disliked the Keeneland surface. I'll be giving him strong consideration for my four-horse exacta box, though I'm not keen on him to win.


WILKO
He's 0-for-3 since upsetting the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, and he put up a hard fight down the lane when a close third in the Santa Anita Derby. That was a very weak field, though, and although this guy is a battler, I still think the Juvenile will always be his career highlight.

[Tommy]

Good Stuff naught Thanks :D

[nekbug]

just been reading mac's touting and am reminded of that wise old adage of the track...never take the word of a tout.

i grew up around the tracks of ontario...grandfather and uncle both ran stables and raced thourghbreds. One thing i know is dont bet a race your not at. If you cant see and get a sense of a horse on race day you are simply pissing in the wind.

as for mac's write up of giacomo...well, why bother? cause they could and they did. and that's the nature of the game.