[OLD HEAD]

Saturday, May 3, 2008


Any of these on your ticket?

Derby Day analysis: the 6 contenders with the highest ratings
Today we'll look at the six contenders with the highest Derby Ratings, including the top four who have a figure of more than 260, which is the target number based upon past winners.

6. Tale of Ekati (246) - The Wood Memorial champ was getting no respect at the windows in the advance wagering, sitting at 45-1 at 7 p.m. last night. He's raced against nothing but Grade 1 and 2 fields since his debut and is as classy a runner as you'll find in this field. His seasonal debut in the Louisiana Derby is a complete toss because he hesitated at the break when an assistant starter was holding his head. He rebounded in the Wood and recorded a 100 BRIS Speed Rating, so his best effort could put him on the board.

5. Court Vision (254) - His solid 2-year-old season helps to yield his high Derby Rating, but this Bill Mott trained colt is an intriguing play for the exotics. He has the right running style and is a son of Gulch, who sired 1995 Derby winner Thunder Gulch. He also has a win over the track and shows a blistering bullet work under the Twin Spires on April 17. Top jockey Garret Gomez chose to ride Court Vision in the Wood Memorial over Colonel John in the Santa Anita Derby on the same day, so read into that whatever you wish. Given his breeding and affinity for the track, he's a must-use for the exacta and maybe even worth considering on top, especially if you like the third start off the layoff angle.

4. Cowboy Cal (261) - DataTrack doesn't distinguish between dirt, turf and synthetic surfaces, so this one is a bit of a mystery. His only race on dirt was in his debut and he showed little that day at Saratoga. Trainer Todd Pletcher switched him to the turf and he reeled off three straight wins and a runner-up finish before running just a neck behind stablemate Monba in the Blue Grass Stakes. He's and early runner and may have a tough time getting near the pace from post 17, so he's the least desirable of the four who make the 260 Derby Rating cut. If you have a big enough bankroll, he might merit a small play.

3. Z Humor (263) - It was surprising to see this Bill Mott charge rank so highly when the Derby Ratings were calculated, but his 2-year-old accomplishments help to boost his number. While not a key prep, his Illinois Derby final fractions did meet DataTrack's criteria and his 110 Late Pace Rating in that contest ranks third in the final prep category. He's a son of Distorted Humor, sire of 2004 Derby champ Funny Cide, and was 67-1 in the advance wagering at 7 p.m. last night, so he's certainly worth a saver ticket in the top spot and using in all of the exotics.

2. Z Fortune (271) - This Steve Asmussen trained colt isn't attracting nearly as much attention as stablemate Pyro but fits the winner's profile much better at longer odds. He's finished worse than second only once in six starts, a sub par effort in the Oaklawn Park's Rebel Stakes. His BRIS and Beyer numbers are just a little below DataTrack's standards and his only Late Pace Rating under 100 came in the Rebel. This son of Siphon enters the Derby with a solid foundation and has faced fields of 10 or more three times. He looks like a big threat for top honors and is a terrific value play.

1. Colonel John (296) - The Derby Rating for this Eoin Harty charge ranks higher than all prior winners except Street Sense's 323 last year and he's the one to beat. He's a complete unknown on the dirt since all of his races have been over California's synthetic tracks, and his BRIS and Beyer speed numbers don't meet DataTrack's standards. But the son of two-time Breeders' Cup Classic champ Tiznow has four wins and two seconds in his six starts, a terrific record of five triple digit BRIS Late Pace Ratings and the proper late running style to get his picture taken Saturday evening.



About C-J Derby DataTrack

The database used to create C-J Derby DataTrack was developed as a tool not only for handicapping the Kentucky Derby but also for making future wagers and playing fantasy stables.

Because Kentucky Derby future wagers are available in Las Vegas race books months before the first Saturday in May, the database author begins tracking 2-year-olds weekly during Keeneland's spring meet and reviews past performances, charts, speed figures, pedigrees, barn notes and many other sources of information to discover emerging prospects.

The database is generally pretty small - 350 or so - until the Del Mar and Saratoga meets commence, at which point every available source of information is tapped until the list typically grows to over 800 by Labor Day.

By late January, there were over 1,700 horses in the 2008 database, most of whom were removed when the Triple Crown nominees were announced February 3. Some of the foreign-based horses and those unraced at the age of two then required pedigree research to give as complete a profile as possible for DataTrack's launch.

Good Luck!