[$@M]

24 Sept : AFL GRAND FINAL -

Sydney Swans v West Coast Eagles

24 Sept :NRL PRELIMINARY FINALS (1)

St. George Illawarra v West Tigers

25 Sept : NRL PRELIMINARY FINALS (2)

Parramatta Eels v North Qld Cowboys


The Aussie season is coming to an end. I still haven't exactly made up my mind on who i would pick, but leaning on the W Tigers @ 2.25 Good value and I can see them going out fighting until the last minute.

WC Eagles were pretty lucky last week to come up with the win against the Crows, since their opponent couldn't find find their scoring boots everytime they had the chance. And since I'm a Sydnian and with Barry Hall escaped the charge and will be playing in the Final, I'll lean on the Swans.

For me, the season is over for the Cowboys... I like the Eels to cover the -9.5 easily and run away with the win into the Grand Final, hopefully against the Tigers.

Well, the reason i post this quickly is that i want some thoughts from you guyz. I think i posted the last few threads a bit late, so not much discussion. BG, if u're reading this, I'd love to have your opinions, thanks.

BOL to all...

[bad gambler]

Hey Sam, good to see another person interested in the game here

In the AFL Grand Final, I'm not too sure what I'm going to do from a betting stand point given I took the Swans outright at $12 2 months ago, so i might hedge a bit on the Eagles. However for those wanting a bet on the match, my play is most definitely on the Swans to win this, they have way too many forward options and with the news that Barry Hall will be playing makes it a very solid play. Although the Eagles have done really well this year, couple of reasons lead me to think they won't win:

1) They travel really poorly, and further their record in Victoria is abysmal
2) Their forward line is quite poor, IMO their super midfiled have been masking the serious deficiencies up forward, they are one of the worst set shot shooters in the league.
3) Ben Cousins and Chris Judd are great players but on the other hand they will be up against the best tagging midfield in the league - Brett Kirk and Crouch specifically. I can see them shutting both players down.

good luck with your plays

[bad gambler]

Also to add to the above, both teams played against each other in the first week of the finals in Perth and although Eagles won that match by a few points, the Swans were robbed - they dominated the whole match and it was only a couple of terrible umpire decisions that denied them victory.

Give it will now be played at a neutral ground, there won't be any "home umpire" biases in the game.

[bad gambler]

I'll do a write up on the league game later in the week, but I got to disagree with you on the Tigers - sure they played well but they were up against an ageing Broncos forward pack - this week there won't be any such gifts against the best team in the comp IMO

For me it's going to be a Eels v Dragons final, no doubt, will look into team news etc to see whether I play the ATS'. But I agree with you on the Eels - at first glance I don't think they will have much problem covering 9 points against the Cowboys.

[$@M]

Great analysis and info there, thank you very much, BG~! What a foresight you took Swans 2 months ago... May i ask what was the odd then?

Well, I will be whole-heartedly supporting the Tigers and will probably lay some change on them as well... I just hope they can continue with that momentum they got during the end of the normal season ~
Dragons, the best team in the Comp ? Hmm... I dunno about this one, but I must admit i'd rather see the Eels win in the Grand Final.

Anyway, BOL on all your plays.

btw, what's IMO stand for?

[bad gambler]

Sam I got the Swans at $12 outright to win 2 months ago, so in line for a nice little payday if they get up



Yep for me it's the Dragons as the best team - they got the deepest squad and have all bases covered - if it becomes a shootout with the Tigers (which I'm suspecting it will) Dragons got the class in Barrett, Ryles, Gasnier and Cooper to step it up if need me.

IMO = In My Opinion

[dananderson32]

i live in the united states but have fallen in love with aussie rules and rugby...and just to throw my two sense in .....i thought about a month ago WC was the best team in the AFL however they have struggled in the past month and i think sydney will get them here! in the other two games i agree with BG that it will be eels and dragos.....therefore i would take ML for both however i have yet to see the ATS lines for these 2 matches!

[bad gambler]

As promised here are my thoughts on the first NRL SF:

Last week I must admit the Tigers played really well, however the scoreline I don't feel was a true reflection of the game. In fact Broncos dominated the first 20min with their big forwards continually bashing it down the middle and it took some brilliant Tigers defense to deny the Broncos at least 3 tries during that period. Well interestingly enough the Dragons possess some big forwards as well, in fact they have two of the best in the world in Ryles and Bailey but the main difference between them and the Broncos pack is their ability to give the off load. They are not as one dimensional as the ageing Broncos pack. Let me assure you if that was the Dragons last week, they would have been leadin 18-0 in the first 20 min. Add to the forward pack the classy backs led by Barrett, Gasnier and Cooper you got one hell of a team. Over 80 min, Dragons will be too consistent for the young Tigers who have done well to get this far, but this is where it ends against the best in the business.

My Play:

Dragons to cover -5.5 v Tigers - $1.90

I also have a lean on the OVERS 47.5 as well, but definitely playing the ATS for the time being.


good luck

[naught33]

thanks for the post BG, going to get down small on this one and hopefully watch it cash

[dananderson32]

congrats to everyone on the swans man had to sweat this one out! HORRAY TO THE SWANS !

[$@M]

Damn it~ I should have stuck to my gut feelings~ Tigers won 20-12 and the Swans won...

[bad gambler]

Well swans win but dragons

That one week off is a killer, I have not seen them drop the ball so often all season yet they did last night, what a shocker: - great call Sam on the Tigers

As to today, I would say without hesitation that Eels would smash teh Cowboys, but after seein the Dragons last night, it's clear that one week off is bad news.

Might just pass and watch instead

[$@M]

I agree with you on the 'one week off' ... I've lost over a thousand buck this week already... I'm going something like 1-9 record in all kinda sports. Those that i play, i lose; and those that decide to just want, I watch my team win. SUCKS!~

Really wanna play the Eels-9.5 tonight, but looking at my record, i'll just play it small.
Oh, I decided last night not to play the Tigers+5.5 but instead took the OVER 46.5~ which apparently didn't come thru either...

What a week~~~