[bigben]

Three months into the New Year and we finally get our first major heavyweight title fight. It’s about time!

On Saturday night, WBA heavyweight titlist Hasim “The Rock” Rahman will defend his title against former four-division world champion James “Lights Out” Toney in one of the more interesting heavyweight title fights over the past few years.

Rahman (41-5-1, 33 KOs) soared into boxing superstardom five years ago with a stunning fifth-round knockout win over then-champion Lennox Lewis. But his success was short lived. Seven months later, Lewis avenged the loss by knocking out Rahman a round earlier in their highly anticipated rematch.

The loss sent Rahman on a two-year slide that saw him fight three more times without a win, as the former champion struggled with ballooning weight and listless performances. It wasn’t until Rahman returned to the minor boxing circuit against B-level opposition that he got back on the winning track. That was almost exactly two years ago to the day.

At his best, Rahman is a devastating heavyweight. He has an exceptional left jab that can dictate the pace of any fight when he decides to commit to the shot. And he backs up the jab with one of the best right hands in the division. As we saw in the first Lewis fight, Rahman can use that weapon to close the show in the blink of an eye.

But the WBA champion has his weaknesses, too. First and foremost among them is his inexplicable tendency to clam up and not throw punches. It’s almost impossible to predict when Rahman will show up motivated and hungry for victory or if he’s going to show up and sleepwalk through a fight.

His last two fights present a perfect illustration of the problem. Back in November 2004, Rahman showed up against the well-respected Kali Meehan and fought a spirited battle, pressing after his foe like he’d stolen Rahman’s wallet. The result was a devastating fourth-round technical knockout win punctuated with a clubbing right hand.


This half-hug, half-left hook that caused Barrett (right) to stumble was
the most intriguing moment of quite possibly the most boring fight of 2005
Yet, in his last bout against close friend Monte Barrett, Rahman seemed more interested in engaging in some sort of dreadful ring waltz with his opponent than throwing punches. It was a putrid fight, one of the worst heavyweight bouts in the new Millennium – right there with Chris Byrd versus DaVarryl Williamson.

The spirited, aggressive Rahman has a real shot at upsetting Toney, a -200 betting favorite, on Saturday night. The lullaby version doesn’t have a chance in hell at winning.

Unlike Rahman, who openly states that money is the sole reason he fights, Toney (69-4-2, 37 KOs) is a born fighter. He’s a warrior all the way down to the depths of his soul, which explains why the former 160-, 168-, 175- and 190-pound champion now campaigns as a heavyweight without fear or hesitation, even when facing guys that dwarf him in stature.

Like Rahman, however, Toney also went through a dark period in his career. From 1994-1997, he lost four fights as the pound-for-pound great dealt with a number of personal demons that saw his weight eventually balloon from a svelte 160 pounds to a blubbery 270.

But a two-year break and a renewed hunger for the sport saw Toney return in 1999 as a man on a mission. Since that time, he’s entered the ring 15 times without losing a fight, including title-winning efforts against Vassiliy Jirov at cruiserweight and John Ruiz at heavyweight. Of course, the Ruiz win was later erased after a post-fight drug test revealed traces of anabolic steroids.

Toney relinquished the title, served a short suspension and returned last October to completely dominate former top prospect Dominick Guinn over 12 rounds. The win put him in position for Saturday’s title challenge.

So, what will happen once the bell starts the action?

While it’s difficult to predict what Rahman will show up, there is absolutely no doubt how Toney will approach the fight. The five-feet-nine heavyweight will stand right in front of Rahman the entire night and look to counterpunch him to death. He might be the much smaller man, but Toney won’t run. He won’t hide. And he will rarely take a backwards step, unless it’s to fight off the ropes, one of his favorite tactics.


If Rahman throws wild rights, Toney (left) should be able to
counterpunch Rahman en route to a win on the scorecards
Toney will try to bait Rahman into firing wild lead right hands so that he can roll away from the punch and counter with left hooks and right hands to the body and head. It seems a bit counterintuitive that the smaller Toney would want to stand and fight, but that is how he fights everyone. The defensive genius frustrates opponents with head movement and shoulder rolls rather than moving his feet. None of that will change on Saturday.

Rahman will grow more and more frustrated if Toney can make him miss early in the fight. As such, he’ll begin firing shots out of desperation, swinging harder and harder in search of knockout once he realizes that he cannot outbox Toney on the inside. Once that happens, Toney will completely take control of the fight, using his far superior technical skills to pick apart Rahman on the inside, much like he did to Ruiz, Guinn and Evander Holyfield.

For Rahman to be successful, he’s got to do two things: jab and work the body. The champion isn’t overly adept at fighting on the inside, so he needs to use his six-inch reach advantage to keep Toney at bay with the jab. He needs to forget that he is the bigger, more powerful man and stay committed to a quick, snapping jab because that will allow him to land shots without taking much in the way of return fire.

When Toney does slip inside the jab, Rahman should forget about the head and pound away at his opponent’s soft midsection. Toney is such a masterful defensive fighter that landing clean shots on the head, particularly early in the fight, will be exceedingly difficult. But no matter how much he twists, turns and rolls, he can’t move his midsection. Rahman can land shots to the body and arms at will.

Because Rahman is so much bigger and stronger, a sustained body attack will definitely wear down Toney as the fight moves into the later rounds. And that is when Rahman can start thinking about a knockout with right hands upstairs. If he starts headhunting too early, Rahman runs the risk of tiring himself out, leaving the door open for a late stoppage win by Toney.

Suffice to say, Toney is the rightful favorite in this matchup due to his vastly superior boxing skills and a style that is best suited for facing larger, slower fighters. But he’s never fought someone as strong or powerful as Rahman. He’s never been hit with anything that resembles a Rahman right hand. It will be interesting, therefore, to see what happens if Rahman is able to land one of his bombs.

That is….if he can land a right hand bomb, something that is much easier said than done against Toney, a man who’s never been stopped in his 76-fight career.

[bigben]

Toney -207
Rahman + 187
pinnacle
**************
I look fr Toney to KO him rahman under 10 rds

[Tommy]

Looking foward to this fight tonight Ben. I like Toney but the odds are a little high. I'll probably end up playing a couple of props on this fight!

BOL Bro!

[naught33]

watched the fight...was ok...toney landed more, but rahman the harder punches imo, was a draw...toney wasw way out of shape he weighed like 240 lbs, my god, lol, if he was in shape he would have won easy imo

[bigben]

I tooo watched this fight the judges here shafted rahman imo know way this fight is a draw rahman thru + 300 punches total more than toney where did those punches go LOL. toney at most is a light heavy weight tops plus he is 38 yrs old time to pack it in Mr toney old folks home.

[Tommy]

LOL Ben, yeah Toney did look like a senior citizen out there, I thought it was a pretty decent fight overall. Thought Rahman should of won also.