[DUlrich1227]

Men's Look Forward: Cincinnati

After four straight under-strength Masters, Cincinnati finally meets the definition of a required event: Everyone is in the field. Oh, we wouldn't bet much on Andre Agassi playing, especially after the rain delay at the Canadian Open. But he's listed in the field. Along with almost everyone else. Including Roger Federer.

Federer hasn't played since Wimbledon, wanting to rest his banged-up feet. But he's here as the #1 seed. Rafael Nadal, who continues to play as if he wants to ruin his feet, gets the #2 seed. Lleyton Hewitt is #3. Marat Safin returns from his knee injury as the #4. Andy Roddick is #5. Nikolay Davydenko takes the #6 seed. Agassi is listed as the #7 seed. The guy whom he was playing in the Canadian Open quarterfinal, Gaston Gaudio, is #8. Guillermo Coria is #9. Mariano Puerta is #10, though he had a surprisingly good Canadian Open and is ranked higher than that now. David Nalbandian is #11 though he lost much too soon in Montreal. Tim Henman is a mess, but he still earns the #12 seed. Other than the suspended Guillermo Canas, the highest-ranked player to be missing is Joachim Johansson. That lets Thomas Johansson have the #13 seed. Ivan Ljubicic is #14, Radek Stepanek #15, and Richard Gasquet #16, meaning that two of last week's Top 20 -- Fernando Gonzalez and David Ferrer -- go unseeded.

As do a lot of other big names: Nicolas Kiefer, who based on last year's form should certainly be seeded on hardcourts; Filippo Volandri, though he isn't likely to do much damage away from clay; Olivier Rochus; Fabrice Santoro; Paradorn Srichaphan, who finally seems to be coming back to life; Tommy Robredo; Taylor Dent; Max Mirnyi; Robin Soderling; Domink Hrbaty; Carlos Moya; Sebastien Grosjean; red-hot Paul-Henri Mathieu; Tommy Haas, though he missed the Canadian Open; Andrei Pavel; Feliciano Lopez; Mario Ancic; Greg Rusedski; Jurgen Melzer; Juan Carlos Ferrero; Olympic champion Nicolas Massu; Jiri Novak; Mikhail Youzhny -- we could go on.

It's a pretty distinguished set of wildcards, too; none of this business of scraping Americans off the streets and alleys and watching them get slaughtered. Some are Americans, to be sure: James Blake and Robby Ginepri, both of whom have been re-establishing themselves this summer. The other wildcards go to those two most talked-about of prospects, Gael Monfils and Andy Murray.

Noteworthy First Round Matches

No byes. No sacrificial wildcards. Only 16 seeds. And everybody who is healthy in the field. This will be the best set of first round matches this year. Bar none. Let's just march down the draw.

(1) Federer vs. Blake. Obviously Federer is the very best. But Blake is playing well again, and he has played. Federer has had nothing but practice since Wimbledon.

Volandri vs. O. Rochus. A real change of pace. And an interesting place for them to meet, since Volandri likes clay and Rochus likes fast surfaces.

Santoro vs. (14) Ljubicic. Complete contrast in styles, of course, and Ljubicic has been struggling after starting the year very well.

(9) Coria vs. Srichaphan. Coria looked just plain bad at Montreal, though of course he's had more time to adapt to hardcourts now. But Srichaphan has finally started playing decently again; he might be a threat.

El Aynaoui vs. Acasuso. Both like clay, but El Aynaoui has had decent hardcourt results, and he at last looked like a real live player at Montreal.

Robredo vs. (8) Gaudio. A rematch from the Canadian Open.

(4) Safin vs. Qualifier. In ordinary circumstances, this would be expected to be a blowout. But Safin has been hurt, he hasn't been playing, it's summer when he often wilts anyway, and besides, we're talking about Safin.

Murray (WC) vs. Dent. Given how short points are on Dent's serve, Murray's fitness problems likely won't be an issue.

Mirnyi vs. Soderling. This is another match that will feature a lot of short points. The contrast is interesting, though: Mirnyi comes in, Soderling doesn't.

Hrbaty vs. (13) T. Johansson. This will be a good test of how quick the court is. Speed helps the Swede; Hrbaty likes things slower.

(10) Puerta vs. Ginepri (WC). Can Puerta possibly have another good hardcourt result in him?

Moya vs. (7) Agassi. For the second straight week, Moya gets a terrible draw. Or will it be a good draw, given how tired Agassi will be?

(6) Davydenko vs. Grosjean. Given how fast these two are, the individual points of this match may take nearly as long as some of the games in Murray vs. Dent or Mirnyi vs. Soderling. Grosjean showed some real determination at Montreal. Can he do it again?

Mathieu vs. Haas. Mathieu is tired but triumphant. Haas hasn't been playing. Who is in better shape?

Pavel vs. (11) Nalbandian. Based on overall form this year, Nalbandian should win this -- but he underperformed badly in Canada.

Gasquet (16) vs. Lopez. Lopez didn't look good in Montreal, but he certainly hits hard enough!

(5) Roddick vs. Melzer. Roddick needs to play better than he did last week, or the tricky Melzer could bother him a lot.

Massu vs. (12) Henman. Neither is playing well at all. Massu has more on the line from the Olympics.

Stepanek (14) vs. Monfils. Stepanek started the year in great form but has faded. On the other hand, he has the big edge in experience.

Novak vs. Beck. Can Beck do as much damage as he did in Canada?

Berdych vs. (2) Nadal. Young talent versus young even-more-talent.

The Rankings

This is the last of them. Four straight weeks of rankings goofiness end this week: After two straight weeks of Masters come off without adding a Masters back on, and one previous seek of adding without subtracting, we now get one more week where we add a Masters.

But this one is a lot more complicated than last. Last week, only one event (Sopot) came off. In practical terms, the rankings last week were calculated by subtracting a player's seventh best result and adding his Montreal points -- and few players had many seventh event points. This week, though, it's the sixth optional event coming off, which is bigger, plus there were two significant optional events played at this time last year: The Olympics and Washington. Washington was only a mid-level event, but the Olympics were an 80 Race point event -- nearly as big as a Masters, except that they weren't required.

So, this time, a lot of players will be taking real hits. Nicolas Massu was last year's Olympic winner, and he's already out of the Top 30; he could end up below #50. Mardy Fish, the Olympic finalist, isn't even playing at Cincinnati; the injuries he's been suffering for the last year will really bite him this week. Bronze medalist Fernando Gonzalez and non-bronze semifinalist Taylor Dent also stand to be hit hard; at least they're playing.

Washington was won by Lleyton Hewitt, who beat Gilles Muller in the final; Muller didn't make the cut for Cincinnati, and is in the qualifying; failure to win a few rounds here will cost him.

What that all adds up to is, this week will decide the U. S. Open seedings, and except for the top couple of spots, everything is in play. Roger Federer will be #1 when this is over, and Rafael Nadal #2. The competition starts at #3. Hewitt has it now, but he's only 300 points ahead of Safin, and 330 ahead of Roddick, and Washington was worth 200 points to him. Roddick lost in the Olympic third round, Safin in the second. Given that Hewitt has been sick, his performance seems far from guaranteed, and if he loses early, Safin could pass him with a quarterfinal. Roddick in all likelihood would need a semifinal.

Nikolay Davydenko and Andre Agassi appear sure to get two of the remaining Top Eight seeds. That leaves one. Right now, Gaston Gaudio has it, but he also has unusually large points in his sixth optional. So someone -- Puerta, Coria, or Nalbandian being the most reasonable candidates -- could still overtake him. Odds are that three of those four will occupy the last three spots in the Top Ten, though someone could still get in the way, Thomas Johansson being the best bet.

The competition for the #16, #24, and #32 spots is wide open; we'll have to update that for you as the week goes along.

Key Matches

Being Top Ten sounds nice, and #1 pays off in commercial endorsements -- but in practice, the single most important ranking is #4. There isn't much practical difference between being seeded #2 or #3; you're seeded for the semifinals and bound to face a very tough semifinal opponent either way. But the difference between #4 and #5 is quite big. And, this week, we have three players -- Hewitt, Safin, Roddick -- playing to avoid #5. The three are close enough together that, if one of them wins Cincinnati, he's assured the #3 spot. And if one loses early, especially if it's Safin or Roddick, he gets stuck at #5.

Roddick, as the guy seeded #5 at Cincinnati, has the worst draw. He opens against Melzer, then probably Juan Carlos Ferrero. Then, based on current form, he gets a big of a break: Henman or Massu or Martin or Chela. But then he has to face Nadal.

Hewitt's draw, overall, isn't too bad: Igor Andreev, who has yet to establish himself on hardcourt, then probably a tired Greg Rusedski, then Gasquet or Lopez or Ancic, then Nalbandian or Davydenko (talk about a hard-scrambling quarterfinal).

Hewitt and Roddick could potentially meet in the semifinal, with the winner in pretty good shape to earn the #4 seed (or better).

Safin is fortunate in that he gets to come back against a qualifier, then Murray or Dent (that Murray/Dent match of course being very big for Dent because of the Olympics -- even a semifinal there is equivalent to a small optional title). But he has to face Johansson in the third round, then potentially Agassi.

It's interesting to note that all four guys competing for the #8 spot (Gaudio, Puerta, Coria, and Nalbandian) are Argentines, and all but Nalbandian are clay specialists. It's a lot of pressure for all four. Nalbandian faces Pavel, then Gonzalez (who ends up in the #25 range if he loses, so that's big for him), then Davydenko, and he almost certainly has to win that to hit the Top Ten. His only hope for a Top Eight spot is to beat Hewitt in the quarterfinal.

Guadio and Coria are drawn to meet in the Round of Sixteen; the winner does not clinch a Top Eight spot, but the loser is just about certain not to get one.

Puerta has the worst draw of all: Ginepri, then Ferrer, then Agassi if he plays, then Safin. On this surface, he isn't much of a favorite in any of those matches.

Finally, we should keep in mind the Henman/Massu match. Henman doesn't have any Olympic points (he lost first round), but his only hope for a Top 12 U. S. Open seed is to win -- and Massu, of course, has his Olympic points coming off.

[Tommy]

Thats some Great stuff Dave, I actually just read it all

BOL in Cincy

[Hope 1]

nice read