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Free Sports Picks and Predictions

Below you will find daily free picks and predictions from expert and seasoned sports handicappers. These picks are from the day's current sports card that include NFL and college football, MLB baseball, NBA and college basketball.
Sunday, February 01, 2015
By Sport: NFL | NCAAF | MLB | NBA | NCAAB | NHL
NCAA-B  |  Feb 01, 2015
California vs. Washington
California
+7½-106
  at  PINNACLE
in 20m

California Bears +7.5

After pretty good starts both of these teams are looking like long shots to make the post-season. This is a fade of the Huskies who have not looked good losing their last two and are without the services of their most productive big man Robert Upshaw.

They lost to Cal by 6 earlier in the year and now they are at home and significant favourite. No Cal is not one of the better teams in the PAC12 but they just broke their losing streak at Washington so they have some momentum as well as a couple of players who are hard to stop in Tyrone Wallace and Jordan Mathews. They can keep this one close.

Play on Cal +7.5

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NCAA-B  |  Feb 01, 2015
California vs. Washington
California
+7½-110
  at  BMAKER
in 20m

Free Pick on Cal +

The Golden Bears come into this game off an impressive 76-67 road win over Washington State as a 2.5-point underdog, but are still not getting any sort of respect due to the fact that they are just 1-6 ATS over their last 7 games. I look for Cal to build off that win and at worst keep it close enough to cover against Washington.

The Huskies aren't exactly coming into this one playing with a ton of confidence. Washington followed up a 56-77 blowout loss at Utah with a double-digit loss at home against Stanford (74-84). You also have to like the fact that Cal defeated the Huskies at home 75-81 earlier this season, which is only going to add to their confidence heading into this matchup.

The Huskies are just 2-10 ATS in their last 12 home games after trailing by 5+ points at the half in each of their last 3 games, 3-8 ATS in their last 11 conference games and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 off a SU loss. Cal on the other hand is a solid 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games against strong defensive teams that are allowing 64 or fewer points/game 15+ games into the season.

Adding to all of this is a strong system. Road teams that have failed to cover the spread in 12 or more of their last 15, who are a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) going up against a team with a winning record are 56-25 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 69% system in favor of the Golden Bears. Take Cal!

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NFL  |  Feb 01, 2015
Seattle Seahawks vs. New England Patriots
Total
47 ov-105
  at  PINNACLE
in 3h

Patriots/Seahawks over 47

I think this game will finish 28-24 and the over will hit

Pick= Over 47

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NFL  |  Feb 01, 2015
Seattle Seahawks vs. New England Patriots
New England Patriots
+100
  at  BMAKER
in 3h

Haimo's Sunday NFL Super Bowl Free Play

Play on New England at +100 on the money line

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Enjoy.

NFL  |  Feb 01, 2015
Seattle Seahawks vs. New England Patriots
Seattle Seahawks
+1-105
  at  PINNACLE
in 3h

I recommended the Seahawks last year and I'll do the same again today. You know the storylines and you know these 2 teams. The public is backing the Pats and I had my sights set on them too last week but it's best to hold off betting on the big game until the morning of.  When the Seahawks are firing on defense, they can stop any quarterback from Peyton to Rodgers and Brady is up next.  Kam Chancellor, Richard Sherman, Byron Maxwell and the defense will put a cork on Gronk and limit his production. The rest of the offense cannot be deemed remotely close to what Gronk's value provides. Get in his way and frustrate Tom Brady all night.  

The Pats will take more risks while the Seahawks keep it simple. There isn't much else to throw out there besides a bunch of numbers that don't apply to this game. The stats mean nothing now. This is the biggest stage in North America and one team will come out hitting harder and more resilient to the pressures around them. The Seahawks will be more loose and they'll feed off the fact that America's darlings are being backed here by the fans and bettors alike. The reigning champs are the better pick here to stay atop the league for another year. 

Prop bet of the day: Marshawn Lynch over 19.5 receiving yards. The Patriots got torched by runningbacks through the air this season. I expect that to continue today with Lynch slipping away for a few good catches. It's good for a 1 unit but remains unofficial. 
---------------------------

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All the best on your Superbowl Sunday,

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NFL  |  Feb 01, 2015
Seattle Seahawks vs. New England Patriots
Seattle Seahawks
+1-108
  at  PINNACLE
in 3h

This is the fourth of a four part article I will author regarding this year’s Super Bowl. In the first article, I examined how each team reached their Super Bowl berth in the late stages of the season.  Then, I dissected each team from a technical perspective, with a variety of point spread trends. In the 2nd article, I examined the teams from a fundamental perspective using a statistical analysis to draw conclusions about each club. This included how each offense would do when they faced the opposing defense. In the third article, I looked at situational factors that could potentially, positively or negatively, influence each team in the big game. This is the fourth and final article in which I will review information from the previous three articles, drawing a final conclusion for the point spread and over/under winner of this year’s Super Bowl. Note that this year’s game should be played in balmy conditions approaching 70 degrees, with winds light and variable, under 10 mph.

In the first article this week, I examined the teams from a tech and trend perspective. Conclusions are that each enters with solid late season momentum, though Seattle’s 8 game win streak is longer and more dominant. Each showed success against fellow playoff opponents in road games, and against non-conference opposition. In summing up this article, I give a slight edge to Seattle for their greater and more dominant current form.

The second article dealt with the fundamentals of each team from a statistical perspective. The short version of this is that Seattle has clearly the best running game in the NFL, averaging 33/170/5.2. The Seahawks also, once again this year, have the best defense in the league. For the season, Seattle allowed foes just 16 PPG, 274 YPG, and 4.8 defensive yards per play. In all statistical categories, these numbers are clearly superior to New England. With a most likely limited running game, it is quite possible that the New England short passing game becomes diffused by the Seattle defense, much as they did in their dominance of Denver and QB Manning in last year’s game. The more intriguing matchup is clearly the outstanding defensive mind of New England HC Belichick, as he throws a variety of defensive schemes at Seattle in an effort to unnerve and confuse the less experienced QB Wilson. But, since Wilson has yet to blink in the face of adversity, that may not be a match that New England can win. From a fundamental and statistical point of view, I give the edge to the NFL’s #1 ground game and defense.

The situational analysis is always the most challenging, yet most rewarding of a handicap. When a handicapper is able to make a judgment about which team will play with greater passion, intensity, and a stronger psychological bent, it can result in a decisive victory. Should New England suffer negative psychological consequences from “Deflate Gate,” and Seattle be buoyed by their season-saving comeback victory vs Green Bay last week, this has the chance to look very similar to last year’s Super Bowl.

In conclusion, my reliance on statistical handicapping makes it a clear choice for me to back Seattle in this contest. With the addition of positive situational analysis, I believe there is a far greater likelihood that Seattle emerges with a dominant victory, rather than New England. A close game gives more of an advantage to New England with all their playoff experience. Nonetheless, I believe Seattle would emerge with victory. All bets are off, however, until we see the final net turnover number. Any team with a +3 or more net turnover margin has a greater than 90% chance to beat the point spread. Any team with a +2 net turnover margin approaches an 80% chance to beat the point spread. And any team with a +1 net turnover margin, has a greater than 60% chance to beat the point spread.

Finally, Super Bowls are often a higher scoring affair than the defensive numbers would indicate. Coaches leave nothing in the playbook, the playing conditions will be optimal, teams who trail take inordinate risks, while teams who lead look to extend margins realizing that no lead may be safe. Considering all those factors, my recommendation would only be on the OVER 47 ½ in this Super Bowl.

Final score (for those who did not take the time to read the previous 2,500 words!):

Seattle 30

New England 23

NFL  |  Feb 01, 2015
Seattle Seahawks vs. New England Patriots
New England Patriots
0-110
  at  5DIMES
in 3h

First and foremost, if I had to pick a head coach right now in a big game, Bill Belichik would be my choice each and every time. Let’s stop and think about this for a second, since the start of the 2003 season, the Patriots have gone 167-50 under the guidance of Belichik, and that’s good for an incredible .770 winning percentage. Considering this is a virtual even game in regards to the point-spread, those numbers weigh heavily into the handicapping equation. Even more impressive during that time frame has been the Patriots 72-34 record away from Foxboro, and that’s good for an incredible .679 winning percentage.

There’s not a lot of holes that you can poke in Pete Carroll’s tenure with Seattle since he took over as head coach in 2010. The Seahawks have been an extremely dominant home team under the guidance of Carroll, going a terrific 36-9 in the “Great Northwest”, and that includes 26-2 since the start of the 2012 campaign. However, they’ve been a very ordinary at best 20-23 on the road, and that includes last year’s Super Bowl win over Denver. It also must be noted, since the start of the 2010 season, Seattle has gone a dismal 1-5 SU&ATS away from Seattle, versus an opponent which scored 34-points or more in their previous game.

Play on the New England Patriots over the Seattle Seahawks as a 10* Top Play selection.

NCAA-B  |  Feb 01, 2015
North Dakota State vs. Western Illinois
North Dakota State
-5½-105
  at  5DIMES
in 20m

Play Against home teams as an underdog or pick like WESTERN ILLINOIS after three straight games where both teams score 70 points or less, against opponent after scoring 30 points or less in the first half of two straight games. In this scenario the oddsmakers are telling up the home team is likely to continue having problems scoring while the favorite is primed to fill up the bucket. Since 2010, teams like Leathernecks are 12-45 ATS in this exact spot.  

My Top Plays are 78-39, 66.6%, up +3467 SU units and I'm Sensational 33-10 in the NHL. - ALERT - Super Bowl Play Up and Bonus Prop, another NHL WINNER and CBB Play in PERFECT SITUATION!

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