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Free Sports Picks and Predictions

Below you will find daily free picks and predictions from expert and seasoned sports handicappers. These picks are from the day's current sports card that include NFL and college football, MLB baseball, NBA and college basketball.
Thursday, November 27, 2014
NCAA-F  |  Nov 27, 2014
TCU vs. Texas
  at  BOVADA
in 7h

Jack's Free Pick Thursday: Texas Longhorns +7

I actually picked TCU to come out of nowhere to win the Big 12 this season. I predicted that they’d finish 11-1 on the season coming into the year, whereas most had them picked in the middle of the pack. While I would love to be right on that prediction, I simply believe the Horned Frogs are overvalued coming into this game against the Longhorns.

I have been riding TCU to a lot of profits this season because they have not only gone 9-1 straight up, but also 8-2 ATS. This team was undervalued coming into the season and throughout the majority of it as I expected, and there were a lot of soft lines to take advantage of in the first 3/4 of the season. But just like any team that covers a lot of games in a row, the odds eventually catch up to them, and that has happened with this TCU team.

Their two failures to cover have come in two of their last three games, and both were on the road. They were extremely fortunate to win 31-30 as a 3.5-point favorite at West Virginia as the Mountaineers gave the game away by committing five turnovers. They also had to come back from a second-half deficit last time out in a 34-30 win at Kansas as a 28-point favorite. So, they have not played nearly as well on the road against worse teams than Texas, and asking them to win by more than a touchdown to cover this spread is asking too much.

The Longhorns are playing their best football of the season right now. Players are finally buying in to what Charlie Strong is preaching, and they are starting to have a lot of fun while winning in blowout fashion. Texas is 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in its last three games overall. It won 34-13 as a 4-point favorite at Texas Tech, 33-16 as a 3-point home underdog to West Virginia, and 28-7 as a 1-point favorite at Oklahoma State.

This Texas defense is the real deal. It has held its last four opponents to an average of 14.8 points per game. It limited the Cowboys to just seven points and 192 total yards in its last game. For the season, it is giving up just 21.0 points and 346.5 points per game against teams that average 32.2 points and 438 yards per game. So, it is holding foes to 11.2 points and 91 yards per game below their season averages.

TCU is a pass-heavy team that averages 324 yards per game through the air. Well, that makes this a great matchup for Texas considering its strength defensively is against the pass. Indeed, the Longhorns are giving up just 182 passing yards per game and 5.5 per attempt against teams that average 262 passing yards per game and 7.5 per attempt. Texas held TCU to just 246 total yards in its 30-7 road win in Fort Worth last year.

Plays against road favorites (TCU) – an excellent offensive team (scoring at least 34 PPG) against an average defensive team (21-28 PPG), after a win by 6 or less points are 31-9 (77.5%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Texas is 46-26 ATS in its last 72 games after having won three of its last four games coming in. The Longhorns are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games following a bye week. All the pressure is on TCU in this game, which could work against them as they try to make the college football playoff.  Bet Texas Thursday.

No. 2 Ranked Overall Handicapper in 2014! Jack Jones and his $1,000/game players have profited $60,690 this year in all sports! He has put together HUGE 424-358 & 100-76 Football Runs heading into Thursday's action! FEAST ON YOUR BOOK by signing up for Jack's Thanksgiving Day Football 3-Pack for $49.95! Leading the charge is his 20* Eagles/Cowboys MAIN COURSE along with his 20* LSU/Texas A&M No-Brainer! He sends you to bed a winner with his 15* Seahawks/49ers DESSERT Thursday night! Bet with confidence knowing you are GUARANTEED PROFITS or Friday college football is ON JACK!

NCAA-B  |  Nov 27, 2014
Long Beach State vs. Western Michigan
Western Michigan
in 8h

 The Free Turkey day College Hoops play is on Western Michigan. Game 526 at 8:30 eastern. Western Michigan is getting points here and has better overall numbers than their opponent Long Beach St. WMU is 24-7 vs losing teams, 2-0 this year and has won 23 of 31 vs teams who allow 77 or more points per game, 3-0 this year. They have won 10 of their last 14 tournament games and 13 of 17 in November games. Long Beach St is a lousy 10-25 straight up and 11-24 ats vs winning teams and has lost all 3 non home games this year, while allowing 90 points per game. Cant lay points with a team like that. But we can certainly take them. Don't miss out on the Huge Turkey day card which is led by the highest rated Thursday NFL Play of the year, 2 more Undefeated side system and a big Totals play. The 30-1 College Football game of the week is also up along with an NCAAB Dominator. Football remains ranked #1 for a 4th straight week. Jump on Now and start this weekend of winners off big. For the free play. Take Western Michigan plus the points. RV

NCAA-F  |  Nov 27, 2014
TCU vs. Texas
  at  BOVADA
in 7h

Free Pick on Texas Longhorns +

The books are begging for money on TCU with this line and will likely get it. However, I think the value is with Texas at home.

Charlie Strong has done a tremendous job of turning this team around after their 2-4 start. Texas is clearly playing their best football of the season right now and will be laying everything on the line in their regular season and home finale. Texas will also be extremely motivated to spoil in-state rival TCU’s hopes of getting into the 4-team playoff and I believe they have a great shot at winning this game outright.

While the Longhorns only win against a ranked opponent is that recent 33-16 victory over West Virginia, they have played several of their top opponents tough. They lost by just 3-points to UCLA (17-20), outplayed Oklahoma in a heartbreaking 26-31 defeat and kept it respectable against Baylor in a 7-28 loss.

Texas has played well defensively all season and come into this game ranked 27th in the country in total defense (346.5 ypg). They have been at their best against the pass, where they rank 13th (182.0 ypg). While TCU is 29th in rushing at 218.0 ypg, their strength is their passing attack, which ranks 8th at 323.6 ypg.

It's not like Texas can't stop the run. The Longhorns are allowing just 3.9 yards/carry against teams averaging 4.3 and just 5.5 yards per pass attempt versus teams averaging 7.5. Add in the home fans and the magnitude of this game and I think Texas is going to do a nice job of slowing down the Horned Frogs.

Another big key here is that Texas has grown big time on the offensive side of the ball. Over their last 3 games the Longhorns are averaging 31.7 points, which is 8 more than their season average of 23.7. They are also averaging 416.7 ypg, which is a big improvement over their season average of 366.9. TCU’s defense is giving up 30.2 ppg and 450.5 ypg on the road, where they have been far from impressive.

The Horned Frogs were fortunate to escape each of their last two road games with wins, narrowly beating both West Virginia (31-30) and Kansas (34-30). That poor showing against the Jayhawks really has me concerned about TCU’s ability to handle the pressure of what’s at stake.

There’s also strong system in play favoring a fade of the Horned Frogs after that near upset loss to Kansas. Road favorites who are an excellent offensive team (34+ ppg) against an average defensive team (21-28 ppg) after a win by 6-points or less are just 9-31 ATS over the last 10 seasons. That's a 78% system in favor of the Longhorns. Take Texas!

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NFL  |  Nov 27, 2014
Seattle Seahawks vs. San Francisco 49ers
San Francisco 49ers
  at  BOVADA
in 8h

49ers -1 1.1* Free Play 

Seattle has not faced a better team on the road this season.  They are 2-3 on the road this year and the 49ers had this game circled since their playoff loss last year.  The home team is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 meetings and I just think the 49ers are still flying under the radar where the Seahawks have not been nearly as dominant as they were a year ago.  Seahawks are also 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings and the 49ers have only been home 2 of the last 6 meetings and they won both of those games. 

Don’t miss out on my 5.5* max NFL POD along with my 5.5* SEC game of the week.  I’m 5-1 ATS lifetime on Thanksgiving in college football and the #1 overall profit leader for career history!

NFL  |  Nov 30, 2014
Washington Redskins vs. Indianapolis Colts
Washington Redskins
  at  5DIMES
in 3d

1* Free Play Washington Redskins.

RG III and company kept it close in San Francisco last weekend and I think the offensive unit will have a much easier time moving the ball against the Colts; while I won’t go so far as to call for an outright upset, I do believe this is too many points to be giving up to this hungry visiting side. Washington is just 3-8, but its overall stats simply aren’t that horrible. 7th overall in passing, 16th in rushing yards, 10th in opponent passing yards and 11th in opponent rushing yards. How about the Colts? Indianapolis is No. 1 in the league in passing, but just 17th in rushing yards. It’s also dismal defensively, 27th in opponent passing yards and 17th in opponent rushing yards. Washington will have its opportunities on offense today. The Colts are on the road in Cleveland the following week, so this doesn’t set up as a “look ahead” spot, but note Andrew Luck and the Indinapolis offensive line looked pretty shaky vs. the Jaguars, Luck finished 21 of 32 for just 253 yards with one TD pass and ran eight times for 49 yards; but note that he was sacked five times, fumbled three times and lost two, all in the first half. As a situational handicapper, these are the types of suspect lines I always keep my eyes open for, consider a second look at WASHINGTON in this one.

AAA Sports

NFL  |  Nov 30, 2014
Arizona Cardinals vs. Atlanta Falcons
Arizona Cardinals
in 3d

Arizona Cardinals -2.5

With last weeks lose to the Seahawks the Cardinals have to win games to stay atop the NFC West. The Falcons are 0-6 when Matt Ryan throws a pick, and I dont see how he can come out of this game without one. The Cardinals defense will again play well enough to overcome their offensive struggles. Cardinals win a big game on the road.

Pick= Cardinals -2.5





NCAA-F  |  Nov 28, 2014
Houston vs. SMU
in 23h

Free Play from Doc’s Sports. #331 Take Houston Cougars -22 over SMU Mustangs (Friday 12 pm CBSSN) The Mustangs are just to games away from completing a perfect 0-12 season. They will have trouble moving the football and scoring points against Houston, as they Cougars are allowing just 18.7 points per game (13th in FBS). SMU has played a little better of late but reality is starting to set in and the coaches know that most of them will be replaced in two weeks. Houston needs another victory to ensure they go bowling and they will get this one in a big way. Houston is 20-8 ATS in their last 28 games against teams with a losing record. Do not miss Doc’s Sports Weekend Football Card highlighted by a pair of top play winners in college and NFL football. 

NFL  |  Nov 27, 2014
Philadelphia Eagles vs. Dallas Cowboys
Philadelphia Eagles
  at  5DIMES
in 4h

Thursday's Free NFL Pick  ---Philadelphia Eagles +3---

This is a bad spot for the Cowboys, who are coming off a tough division game on the road on Sunday Night Football, which they had to use a lot of energy to rally for a win in the 2nd half. Now they have a short week of rest to face one of the most explosive offenses in the league that play at a ridiculous pass. Dallas defense has been better than expected this season, but I think this is a spot where they struggle to contain the Eagles and all their weapons. Most importantly, I look for the Cowboys to wear down quickly, which should lead to a lot of big plays. While Dallas should be able to move the ball against Philadelphia's defense, I just don't see them scoring enough. I'll take the points on what I feel is the better team in this matchup.

System - Home teams who have failed to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games in Weeks 10 through 13 are just 87-135 (39%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. BET THE EAGLES +3!

3x Top 20 NFL Handicapper (#5 Overall 2012)! Steve Janus is also an Amazing 24-13 (65%) Over L37 NFL 5* Top Play Selections and 460-383 Over L843 5* Top Plays Overall, which has his $1,000 Players Profiting $37,100! Don't make the mistake of betting against a proven expert. Cash in a winning ticket on Thanksgiving with Steve's 5* 49ers/Seahawks NFL Blockbuster Top Play! This special offer comes backed by a 72% SUPER SYSTEM, is yours for the low price of $35.95 and best of all it's GUARANTEED TO PROFIT!

NCAA-B  |  Nov 27, 2014
Cal State Fullerton vs. Wright State
Cal State Fullerton
  at  5DIMES
in 5h

Play Against neutral court teams as a favorite or pick  like WRIGHT STATE, a slower-paced team from last season averaging 53 or less shots a game, after a contest where they made 55 percent or more of their shots. Teams like Wright State tend to be more up and down shooting percentage-wise with a low volume output and this club is also 6-16 ATS away after a game committing eight or less turnovers. In the last 17 years, teams like Wright State are 5-24 ATS in this exact situation. 

Big Turkey Day Plays! Over the last nine football weekends I am 8-0-1 for Winning Weeks and 54-32, 62.8% the past month! Plus, my NHL picks are at 78.5 percent! Do what dozens are doing, a 7 or 30-Day Pass!

NCAA-F  |  Nov 29, 2014
Minnesota vs. Wisconsin
  at  BMAKER
in 2d

This week's FREE  CFB Winner is on the Wisconsin Badgers.  Spot plays have worked for us all year. This is a spot to grab the home standing Badgers who escaped with a narrow win at Iowa.  Minnesota won on the road at Nebraska last week. Now they head to Madison where the Badgers are notoriously tough.  We expect a let down from the Gophers in this spot.  Badgers will let Gordon and troops pound away on the Minnesota defense that's beat up from the tough Nebraska game.

Badgers last two home games were blowout wins over Nebraska and Maryland.  Expect more of the same here.  Take the Badgers by 21 over  Minnesota as your free CFB Winner on Saturday Nov 29.

Steve Williams' Game of the Year Weekend was a HUGE Success. 4-1 ATS on our highest rated selections so far this season. Topped off with our NFL Game of The Year on the Patriots. We are on an 12-3 ATS run. 64 % ATS overall the entire season.

Steve Williams' Turkey Shoot has been money over the years. Get our three game package and continue to cash. We are 24-5-1 ATS the last 10 years on our Turkey Shoot Plays.

TWO MORE GAME OF THE YEAR WINNERS!  ACC GAME OF THE YEAR AND PAC 12 GAME OF THE YEAR ready for all big bettors. Don't miss these two coveted selections.

 Don't miss another spread winner from Steve Williams.  Package deals are the way to go. 3 day, 7 day or monthly/ season packages will save you money while we make you money.

NCAA-F  |  Nov 29, 2014
Georgia Tech vs. Georgia
in 1d

Rating: 1 Unit NCAAF Free Pick

Under head coach Mark Richt, the Georgia Bulldogs are 38-1 SU at home versus. non-SEC opponents. They are 12-1 SU overall versus Georgia Tech, covering the spread in seven of their last nine meetings. With frosh phenom Nick Chubb leading the way, UGA is averaging 6.2 yards per rush.

NFL  |  Nov 27, 2014
Philadelphia Eagles vs. Dallas Cowboys
Dallas Cowboys
in 4h



FREE Thanksgiving NFL Play

Philly @ Dallas  - 3

There is where Sanchez meets his match at QB in my opinion, against an aggressive Dallas defense that played terrible on Monday Night Football. Sanchez’s 2 wins came against Carolina and Tennessee (hardly impressive)  and I cannot trust him to win a meaningful game against a team like Dallas on the road, and Dallas has found ways to win all season, versus last year when they found ways to lose. Dallas was down double digits on Monday on the road and pulled out a win.  Look for Dallas to balance the attack and pass more than usual because Philly cannot stop the pass and Bryant and Witten will have a big day, and thankfully Romo has NOT been a turnover machine like years past.  Dallas ranked 13th against the run so Sproles and McCoy should be contained somewhat in what should be a high scoring game. Dallas home field on a national TV game is worth 2 points here and I think Dallas is 3-6 points better anyway.  It won’t come easy.

One thing is the fact here that Dallas looked very sloppy on defense against a the paltry New York Giants team and they traveled, and now have a short week and that usually is go against spot and oddsmakers reflect that, and yet Dallas installed as a 3 point favorite here.  Dallas has not covered a Thanksgiving Day football game which is annually for them in the past 3 years and I think this is the year they get it done. 

As of Tuesday 90% of the action on this game was on the Over, which is now 54.5 but oddsmaker sources say this line will be at 56 by game time and that might be worth a look as well, but get on it early.  No doubt both teams will trade some punches on the scoreboard.  The Over trends here are unreal. 

Free Pro Pick on Dallas on Turkey Day   


 NFL / NCAA Combo Card - BONUS Triple Header on Turkey Day - Cash out with a 3-0 Sweep.  

NCAA-F  |  Nov 29, 2014
Michigan vs. Ohio State
Ohio State
in 1d

Michigan comes into their annual rivalry game against Ohio State in what could be Brady Hoke’s last game as head coach. It will be the 111th meeting between these two teams.

The No. 7 Buckeye are 10-1 and have clinched a spot in the conference title game. They have their sights on the fourth spot in the NCAA playoffs and Michigan would like nothing better to upset them here.

Michigan is 5-6 on the season and needs a win just to become bowl eligible. I am not sure they want to extend this miserable season. A big question coming into this game surrounds Hoke’s future in Ann Arbor .Hoke is 31-19 in his fourth season with the Wolverines, but there has been a steady decline on the field, in his record and in attendance at The Big House.

The last meeting between these two was a very exciting affair. Ohio State captured a school-record 24th consecutive win when safety Tyvis Powell picked off Devin Gardner's two-point conversion pass with 32 seconds left to preserve a 42-41 victory.

The Buckeyes have dominated the series lately, winning 11 of 13.

Normally I would take the 21 points in this game, but I see this game being ugly and the slamming of the door   on Brady Hoke’s career at Michigan.  Michigan has not stepped up all year to save their coach and why should I think they will do it now. I think OSU will score early and often and will look to win big to express the committee.

Play on Ohio State

This is a 1* Free Play

NCAA-F  |  Nov 29, 2014
Auburn vs. Alabama
  at  BMAKER
in 2d

Will #1 Alabama at 10-1 get their revenge over their long-time in-state rivals #15 Auburn at 8-3? The truth is I don’t care. The only thing I care about is Auburn keeping it closer than 9 points which is highly likely in this scenario.The Crimson Tide have another championship hope in the SEC and the entire BCS while Auburn plays loose as the role of the spoiler.

The Tigers get back WR Duke Williams to give QB Nick Marshall an important target that he’s been missing this month. Coach Gus Malzahn’s gameplan will be to stir up his potent offensive attack all around Alabama’s field to open up the Tide’s defensive wall. It’s going to be difficult getting through Alabama’s 2nd ranked defense but if there’s a time and place for it to happen, it’s right here at the Iron Bowl.

Auburn is no slouch here with a defense that holds teams to 23.5 points and rocks 35.1 pts. per game on offense. Alabama is simply not covering enough at home to side with them as they’ve gone 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 at home. Auburn is also 13-4 ATS coming off a win and expect the extra motivation in this game to only accentuate this trend. They’ve given too many points to Auburn here who can move the ball enough to stay within 9. War Eagle. Take the Tigers.

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NCAA-F  |  Nov 29, 2014
Florida vs. Florida State
in 2d

As of print, I am on a 65-33 football run. Saturday, I SWEEP THE BOARD with my BIG 10 GAME OF THE MONTH, GEORGIA TECH/GEORGIA rivalry winner, and my 6-1 TOUCHDOWN plays. make this Holiday Season a winning one, by following me.

Play Florida (Game 403).

Florida, despite statistically having nothing to play for, emotionally has a lot to prove here. For starters, HC, Will Muschamp will not be returning next year. The team would love to give him a proper sendoff. Next, bragging rights for the state of Florida. Lastly, revenge from last year's, 37–7 loss. Florida State QB, Jameis Winston is believed not to be 100%. The Seminoles squad have played to five games resulting in a six or less point victories against some less than stellar teams. The ground game is poor and with Winston's health an issue, the Florida defense will get to the QB. The Gators stop unit allows a mere 20.9 PPG and does face a higher quality of opponents. Their punishing rushing attack(196.1 YPG) will eat up the clock and wear down the FSU defense. The Gators are 4-1 ATS their L5 games played on the road while the Seminoles are 3-9 ATS their L12 games played overall. Take Florida. Thank you.

NFL  |  Nov 27, 2014
Chicago Bears vs. Detroit Lions
47 ov-108
in 29m

I'm recommending a play on the Over on Thursday.  While Detroit has been relying on their defense to stay in games, the job has become tougher with Nick Fairley sidelined.  The Lions are no longer getting to the opponent's QB and when Jay Cutler has time he can be dangerous.  In fact, the Bears are 4-0 when he doesn't thrown an interception.  I expect Chicago to test the Detroit defense, but I also expect the Lions' offense to find success with their fine receivers matched-up against a Bears' defense that ranks 28th in the league in passing yards allowed per contest. Chicago has allowed 31 points or more in four of their last six games and they're on a 20-7 Over run on the road.  The series has gone Over in four of the last five meetings in Detroit and we expect more of the same in this one.  I'm recommending a play on the Over between the Bears & Lions on Thursday.  Happy Thanksgiving and best of luck to us.  Scott Spreitzer.

Scott Spreitzer has action on one college gridiron side on Thanksgiving. It's his CFB THURSDAY KNOCKOUT GAME OF THE MONTH! Scott's side owns the value and he explains the added advantages in his analysis.  Make the move right here then rock the books on Thursday!

NCAA-F  |  Nov 29, 2014
Oregon vs. Oregon State
in 2d


Play on:  Oregon (397) over Oregon State @ 8:00 Eastern

Talk about a traditional College Football game we have a classic on Saturday out on the left coast when the Ducks and Beavers do battle in Corvallis.  In the series the Ducks have carved out 6 straight victories, including last year’s 36-35 win.  Oregon (-33) competed this past weekend with a staggering 44-10 win over Colorado which guarantees a spot in the PAC-12 Championship game.  QB Mariota is now ranked #2 in QBR at 97.7.  Also, if you have not been current with the playoff standings, the Ducks (10-1) are ranked #2 behind the Crimson Tide. The Beavers (5-5) are coming off a 37-13 loss at Washington.  The Huskies scored 14 points in the first quarter and never looked back.  Oregon State was throttled again, because of their inept running attack that booked just 47 yards rushing at 2.0 yards per carry. Oregon last faced Oregon State in Corvallis in 2012 with the Ducks winning 48-24.  We all know this is a rivalry game The Civil War to be exact, but can the Beavers be competitive? Our knee-jerk opinion, not really, as the Ducks have the ability to just out score Oregon State.  First off, Oregon is ranked #2 on offense averaging 45.8 points per game with 537 yards on average.  Offensively, the Beavers are #71 scoring 26.3 yards points per game with 386 yards per outing.  Defensively, Oregon State shows inconsistencies ranked #66 with opponents gaining 392 yards per game and 30.2 points per game.  From the technical standpoint the road team in the series is 7-0-1 ATS, while the Ducks have covered 4 straight at Oregon St.  Additionally, the Ducks have covered 6 straight in conference.  In contrast Oregon State is 4-10 ATS at home and 1-6 ATS L7 times out…Oregon 49 Oregon State 17.

 Last Saturday we suffered our first loss in the TRIPLE CROWN format that enlists three key releases.  It was the first loss in almost three months.  The Triple Crown Package is now 16-2 (89%) this year with selections 41-13 (76%).  Over the last two weeks we have had solid earners, including the 20* College Game of the Year (Western Kentucky) and Sunday the 10* NFL NON-CONFERENCE GOY winner on the Rams.  Saturday we will have our SEC GAME OF THE YEAR and more Triple Crown winners.  Also, don’t miss our College Basketball selections (#5), as we are 16-8 ATS. This year we were #1 in MLB TOTALS, #1 in College Football and #5 OVERALL MONEY WON. Good Luck.

NFL  |  Nov 30, 2014
San Diego Chargers vs. Baltimore Ravens
Baltimore Ravens
in 3d

The Ravens went to the Super Dome and beat the Saints as our "Monday Night Game of the Year." Now they'll host a Chargers team that's on a 2-3 losing skid, with their only 2 wins coming against over-matched foes in St. Louis (4-7) and Oakland (1-10). The Ravens are 7-4 on the season, but with ALL 4 teams in their AFC North division owning winning records, they need a home win Sunday to keep pace in their division race. Expect them to get that win as they're 5-0 SU & ATS as favorites against the AFC West behind HC John Harbaugh. Lay the points with the Ravens, who have won 4 STRAIGHT home games- They're not just winning at home, but blowing out their opponents as those four home victories came by 14, 20, 22 & 28 points!

10* Play on Baltimore Ravens

NFL  |  Nov 30, 2014
New England Patriots vs. Green Bay Packers
58 un-105
  at  BOVADA
in 3d

Recommendation: Take the Under

NFL Totals don’t get much higher than this, with the current Over/Under posted in the 58/58.5 range for Sunday’s Patriots – Packers clash.  And I can certainly understand why this total is posted in this range – we’re looking at two teams that rank #1 and #2 in points scored this season; two teams with elite QB’s playing at the top of their game; and two teams that are a combined 12-2 to the Over since the beginning of October.

But all of that is most assuredly factored into this inflated number – the bookmakers and the betting markets aren’t flying blind at this late stage of the season.  Game temperatures at Lambeau Field are expected to be below freezing at kickoff, with the lookahead weather forecast showing the potential for foggy conditions as well (never a good thing for either downfield passing game).  And both teams are likely to emphasize the run on Sunday, efforting to control the clock, control the gameflow and keep the opposing elite quarterback off the field.

And make no mistake about it – we’re talking about two Super Bowl caliber defenses here!  Both the Packers and the Patriots rank among the top dozen NFL defenses according to Football Outsiders DVOA rankings.  Green Bay hasn’t allowed more than 20 points in any game on this field since Week 2.  They’ve held nine of their last ten foes to 24 points or less.  Cornerbacks Tremon Williams and Sam Shields have been stellar all year; while safeties Morgan Burnett and Ha Ha Clinton-Dix have kept nearly everything in front of them.

The Patriots are a team capable of changing their gameplan completely from one week to the next.  Two weeks ago, New England spent more than half the game in a power run formation with six offensive linemen, grounding out yards against the Colts.  Last week, the Pats opened the game with a 52-13 pass-to-run ratio before garbage time against the Lions.  In this particular matchup, I’m expecting a classic Belichick switcheroo back to a run-first attack; looking to keep Aaron Rodgers off the field as much as possible and to take advantage of a Packers run defense that’s a notch or two weaker than their pass D.

New England’s defense has held nine of their last ten opponents to 25 points or less, controlling the flow week after week.  And the strength of that defense, much like that of the Packers, is in the secondary.  Darrelle Revis and Alfonzo Dennard are both legitimate shutdown corners.  Safeties Devin McCourtey and Patrick Chung simply don’t get burned deep very often.  Last week in this space, I recommended a play on the Patriots Under vs. Detroit an it cashed thanks to the Pats keeping the Lions out of the end zone.  I don’t think New England keeps Green Bay out of the end zone here, but I’m certainly not expecting a shootout in which both teams approach 30 points, and that’s what it’ll take to cash an Over ticket.  Take the Under.

NCAA-F  |  Nov 27, 2014
LSU vs. Texas A&M
in 7h

LSU (-3-) at Texas A&M 7:30 ET ESPN

LSU (-3)

This is a battle of underperforming SEC teams who each enter the contest at 7-4 SU, 3-4 SU in SEC West play.  As such, they are clearly below the division standard bearers, Alabama and Mississippi St.  In addition, they have also taken a step back from the national acclaim reached by each program in recent seasons.  Though larger carrots do not wait for either of these programs, there is a lot of pride on the line as they enter this Thanksgiving evening game in an effort to salvage their respective mediocre seasons.  Each plays with a week of rest and coming off a loss.  


For Texas A&M, that defeat came on this very field vs. Missouri. The Aggies were badly mauled at the point of attack by the Tigers 335-104, as Missouri used a 200 Club game for 587 total yards in a 34-27 victory.  It was a microcosm of the Aggies’ season, which began with SEC victories vs. S. Carolina and Arkansas.  Since October, however, the Aggies have gone just 2-4 SU, 1-6 ATS with one of those victories against LA Monroe.  In so doing, they failed to cover the number by a net of 96 points.  Look no further than the fact they are approaching the status of “Defensive Dud” with a stop unit that allows 28 PPG, 210/4.9 overland and 235/7.1 through the air.  In a letdown season, following the departure of Johnny Manziel, the Aggies have failed to cover a game on their once strong home field.  

Much like A&M, LSU has fallen from the national spotlight this year.  In the previous 4 years, the Tigers had recorded a mark of 44-9 SU, often challenging for superiority in the SEC West, widely considered to be the nation’s best division.  This year, however, fortunes have turned against the Tigers with losses to division powers Mississippi St. by 5, Auburn by 34 and Alabama by 7 (in OT).  The week after that crushing defeat, they traveled to Arkansas (a team who had lost 17 consecutive SEC games).  The inevitable letdown took place as Arkansas defeated LSU 17-0, holding the Tigers to just 123 total yards.  Since that time, the Tigers have focused on the bounce back for this game.  Behind RB Fourette, LSU already had a solid ground game at 205/4.3.  Two weeks of practice in the passing game should pay huge dividends against the weak Texas A&M secondary.  Clearly, the Tigers are more proficient on that side of the ball.  Allowing just 16 PPG, 313 YPG and 4.8 YP play, they are notably superior to the Aggies who approach Defensive Dud status.  

Let’s try the far superior defense, following an embarrassing shutout loss, to get the victory tonight, against an A&M team who has clearly lost their way as the season has progressed. 

NCAA-F  |  Nov 28, 2014
Virginia vs. Virginia Tech
  at  5DIMES
in 1d

Virgina is coming off a big win against the Miami Hurricanes. Meanwhile, Virgina Tech will try to bounce back from one of the more embarrassing performances of Frank Beamer's 28 years in charge. The Hokies lost to Wake Forest in double overtime in a game that was scoreless at the end of regulation. Virgina Tech is coming into this game with a lot of injuries. The RB corps has been particularly hit hard. As a consequence, the offense has sputtered. Virginia Tech is also 5-6 and has nothing to play for. According to my algorithms, I have Virgina winning 23-13, 24-10, and 20-9. Lay the money on Virginia for your money winner. Thank You

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