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NCAA-F :   Duke vs. Army

Nov 11, 2017
Duke -4.0 52.00 16
Army 4.0 21

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Jack Jones

Game Details
Nov 11, 2017 started
NCAA-F | Duke vs Army
Play on: Duke -3 -105 at Bovada

Jack's Free Pick Saturday: Duke -3

At 4-5 on the season, the Duke Blue Devils need two wins in their final three games to get bowl eligible.  They host Georgia Tech next week and travel to Wake Forest in the finale, and it would be tough to sweep those two games.  So they are looking at this game at Army like a must-win for bowl eligibility.

The Blue Devils opened on fire going 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS, but they have gone 0-5 SU & 0-4-1 ATS in their last five games since.  But they got a bye last week to regroup, and that has given the Blue Devils two full weeks to prepare for the triple-option offense that Army runs.

And Duke has been great against the triple-option in recent years.  They are 6-0 ATS in their last six against triple-option teams, and I think a lot of that has to do with their familiarity with it.  They are also 18-4 ATS in their last 22 non-conference games.  They will be ready for Army this week after beating the Black Knights 13-6 at home last year and 44-3 on the road in 2015.

Army is in a letdown spot here.  The Black Knights are coming off a 21-0 shutout win at Air Force last week.  It was their fifth straight victory, and they are now finally getting a ton of respect from oddsmakers.  But they were fortunate to win their two previous games both at home over Eastern Michigan and Temple by a combined 4 points.  I think their luck runs out this week against a well-rested and ready Duke squad.

Duke does have a very good defense this season.  It gives up just 20.6 points and 340 total yards per game.  The key to stopping Army is stopping the run, and the Blue Devils are equipped to do just that.  They are giving up only 142 rushing yards per game and 3.9 per carry this season.  They have held Army to 165 and 120 rushing yards in their last two meetings, respectively.

David Cutcliffe is 15-6 ATS when the line if +3 to -3 as the coach of Duke.  Jeff Monken is 0-6 ATS when playing against a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) as the coach of Army.  The Blue Devils are 5-0 ATS in their last five vs. Independent teams.  Duke is 12-0 ATS in its last 12 games on fieldturf.  The Black Knights are 0-4 ATS in their last four home games.  Army is 9-19-1 ATS in its last 29 games following a win.  The Blue Devils are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet Duke Saturday.

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Pick Released on Nov 09 at 06:29 pm
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