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NFL :   Cowboys vs. Falcons

Nov 12, 2017
final SIDE O/U SCORE
Cowboys 3.0 48.5 7
Falcons -3.0 27
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Brandon Lee

Game Details
Nov 12, 2017 started
NFL | Cowboys vs Falcons
Play on: Falcons -3 -120 at Bovada

10* FREE NFL PICK (Falcons -3) 

The Cowboys are getting way too much respect here on the road against a hungry Falcons team without Ezekiel Elliott. So much of what makes Dallas a great team stems from Elliott. Not only his production running the ball, but how opposing defenses have to load the box, which opens up those passing lanes for Prescott. Add in the Cowboys being without left tackle Tyron Smith and two of their top receivers in Dez Bryant and Terrance Williams are both nursing ankle injuries and I think Dallas really struggles to move the ball in this one. 

While Atlanta's offense isn't putting up ridiculous numbers like they were a season ago, this is still one of the best offenses in the league. The Falcons rank 5th in the NFL with an average of 372 yards/game and are poised for one of those breakout performances. I believe it comes here against a Cowboys defense that will have to spend a lot more time on the field now that the offense won't be eating up the clock with Elliott and the running game. 

Cowboys are a huge public team, which is why we aren't seeing a much bigger line here and getting so much value with Atlanta. Dallas has covered 3 straight games, but that sets them up in a great situation to fade them, as they are a mere 9-23 ATS in their last 32 road games when they have covered 3 of their last 4. Give me the Falcons -3! 

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Pick Released on Nov 12 at 09:43 am

Teddy Covers

Game Details
Nov 12, 2017 started
NFL | Cowboys vs Falcons
Play on: Cowboys +3 +100 at BMaker

Take Dallas (#269)

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I understand that Zeke Elliott is an impact running back.  I also understand that the Cowboys offensive line is mostly healthy now, and they’ve dominated for the better part of the last month.  Dak Prescott is on fire, leading the team to 28+ points in each of their last six ballgames and making good decisions with the football week after week – he’s thrown only 2 INT’s during that entire six week span.  And the trio of Alfred Morris, Rod Smith and Darren McFadden are more than capable of filling the void left by Elliott’s suspension.

The mainstream narrative is so predictable it’s not even funny.  I’ve seen so many ridiculous quotes like ‘Dak Prescott is going to have to throw 50 times a game now’  (he’s thrown more than 40 passes only twice in his 24 career starts) or ‘Dallas has no identity without Zeke’ (running backs are replaceable, and every player on every team knows it).  It’s all nonsense – remember, sports reporters are paid to produce content, not to be right.  My power rating adjustment for Dallas following the Elliott suspension news was all of a half point, and the Cowboys have been prepping and planning for this since the summer. 

The wiseguys continue to support the Falcons on a weekly basis, despite their obvious and continued struggles on both sides of the football and their propensity for blowing leads.  Why the sharp love for Atlanta?  Simple – their statistical profile looks great.  The Falcons Super Bowl team from last year outgained foes by an average of 1.1 yards per snap (their yards-per-play differential between what they gain on offense vs. what they allow on defense), ranked #1 in the NFL.  This year’s Falcons squad has outgained their opponents by 1.1 yards per snap, ranked #1 in the NFL, just like last year.

Sharps focus heavily on those yards per play stats – too heavily, in this bettor’s opinion!  After all, the elite Patriots have been outgained by more than half a yard on a ypp basis this year, while a very suspect losing team like Cinci has a positive differential.  The stats might show that this year’s Falcons version is every bit as good as last year’s squad, but the eye test does not. 

A Falcons team that scored 58 offensive touchdowns last year is only at 17 TD’s at the halfway point this year, with Steve Sarkisian unable to fill departed coordinator Kyle Shanahan’s big shoes.   Atlanta has been favored four times in the last five weeks.  They’ve lost three of those four games in SU fashion, with the offense unable to click during crunch time and the defense allowing 20+ in each of their last six contests. 

The wiseguys are likely to keep betting on the Falcons until their statistical profile changes in a significant way.  That gives savvy bettors a legitimate overlay to fade this vastly overrated commodity.  Take the Cowboys.

 

Pick Released on Nov 10 at 01:27 pm

Marc Lawrence

Game Details
Nov 12, 2017 started
NFL | Cowboys vs Falcons
Play on: Cowboys +3 +100 at 5Dimes

Play - Dallas Cowboys (Game 269). 

Edges - Cowboys: 5-0 ATS with revenge following a home game against foes off an away game… Falcons: Super Bowl losing teams are 0-4 ATS since 1997 at home following three straight away games; and 2-17 ATS at home following a division game against avenging foes coming off a non-division game… With Atlanta head coach Dan Quinn 10-2 SU against losing teams, but only 7-8 ATS against .500 or greater opponents, we recommend a 1* play on Dallas. Thank you and good luck as always.    

> This is it… Marc’s top-rated one a month NFL 10* Game Of The Month and it goes this Sunday. Best of if supported by a pair of amazing awesome angles that are 22-0 ATS since 1980.  If you’re serious about winning this Sunday then you know exactly what to do! 

Pick Released on Nov 11 at 11:22 am
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