10* Boston/LA UNDER 7-1/2

MLB TOP PLAY TOTAL ALERT...BDS

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10/04/18

5* (903/904) Atlanta/LA OVER the total

MLB PLAYOFF BEST BET

This is a trend players situational delight on Thursday night out on the coast.

The Braves look to get back against the mighty Dodgers with righty Foltynewic (13-10, 2.85),

while LA use lefty Ryu (7-3, 1.97).  Each are arriving after solid efforts in their last

time on the mound.  Foltynewic (8-6, 2.48) has been solid on the road this season, but has

run into some tough luck with the lack of run support.  Ryu (5-2, 1.15) has been super at 

home inside a limited amount of starts.  Psychology we see the public backing the Dodgers

at home from the side standpoint, however, what is being missed is an opportunity to cash

a total on a whole number...7.  Initially, the line opened at 6-1/2 but has ticked up 

because of the critical nature of the game, and some incredible OVER numbers from the

playoff standpoint.  Did you know the Braves show with a remarkable 15-3 OVER mark in

divisional playoffs, while the Dodgers are a perfect 4-0 OVER at home in divsional playoff

games. Also, the Braves bring perfect 4-0 OVER record after an off day and 4-0 OVER L4

road starts with Foltynewic.  Finally, LA 6-1 OVER L7 with Ryu after scoring 5+ runs in 

their last game and 5-2 OVER with the hurler at home with 5 days of rest.  Good Luck.

4* UNDER...BALTIMORE/BOSTON GAME #1 DH

Young Meisinger of Baltimore has a live arm and in his first career start will not be alarmed by Fenway and the Sox.  At this time the Orioles should be the more relaxed unit, Boston just might display a lack of focus this afternoon since Price is throwing.  The Sox show 18-2 in the series, whiile Price is carrying a 2.84 ERA in 25 starts when the Yankees are not the agenda.  Price has a 2.67 ERA long-term vs. the O's.  Overall the recent series shows 2-0-2 UNDER and 4-0 UNDER with Price on the hill.  Also, the Sox come 4-0-3 UNDER at home, 11-3-2 UNDER home vs. a road unit with

979/980

5* Kansas City/Cincinnati OVER the total

Over the last eleven days the Reds with Harvey have gone UNDER against the Cubs and Brewers. However, can't blindly go with the hurler who surrendered 7 runs in 5-1/3 last week against Milwaukee. Harvey brings almost a 5 ERA on the season. The visiting Royals use lefty Skoglund (5.60) shows off an impressive 6 innings against Pittsburgh allowing no earned runs. Over his last three outings the hurler has put together a 1.38 ERA. However, Cincinnati is carrying a higher BA against LHP (11-5-1 OVER) with a .259 mark, and Skoglund has struggled overall in road assignments with a 0-2 record...5.65 ERA.  Technically, KC is OVER in 4 straight off a win and 7-0 OVER interleague affairs on the road against losing units.  The Reds battle with an 8-2 OVER mark in interleague games this season and 5-2 OVER with Harvey at home. GO HIGH! Good Luck.

NOTE:

We will have another 5* MLB TOTAL BEST BET around 8:00 Eastern later.

7* LA/St.Louis UNDER 7-1/2

Both Kershaw and Gomber threw well in their most recent starts against Colorado and Detroit on the road.  Over their last three starts Kershaw shows a solid 2.57 ERA and Gomber 2.84 ERA.  On the road lefty Kershaw has 2.08 ERA this season, while Gomber (2.13) has been more effective in St. Louis.  The series has shot UNDER 9-of-12 at St. Louis, 35-16 UNDER overall.   With Kershaw on the road the Dodgers show 4-1 UNDER L5, St. Louis 5-0 UNDER vs. a WHIP we'll go UNDER here.  Good Luck.

5* Arizona/Colorado UNDER the total

There seems to be real value here if lefty Freeland holds recent form in a tough grind with Arizona.  Back on June 10th the Snakes beat Colorado Freeland 8-3.  However, the hurler has put together a solid season with a 14-7 record (2.91) with a home ERA of 2.21.  Freeland just 6 strong innings against the Dodgers winning after allowing just 4 hits and 1 earned run. He has a 2.50 ERA L3 starts.   With Freeland the Rockies are 25-4 UNDER at home, 14-1 UNDER home versus a >.500 club.   Arizona brings Bucholz (7-2, 2.01) to the hill, but he has not faced the Rockies since 2016.  His last start was against Atlanta (ND) accruing 6 innings surrendering just 1 earned run.  Bucholz has a 0.98 ERA last three starts.  The Snacks are 6-0 UNDER against lefties and 9-1 UNDER on the road.  When umpire Conroys calling balls and strikes, the UNDER has cashed 4-of-5 with Arizona.

3:45 Eastern

10* (905/906) Atlanta/San Francisco UNDER the total

MLB Total of the Month…BDS

Real nice situation with the Braves and Giants coming off a night game out on the coast, having to play a day edition for a change in venue.  Both hurlers Sanchez (6-5, 3.09) and Holland (7-8, 3.54) have thrown well in the month of August.  In fact, Sanchez has allowed just 5 earned runs in his last 16 innings of work bringing a 1.98 ERA L5 starts challenging the Giants.  Lefty Holland has given up only 5 earned runs in his last 5 starts carrying a super 1.29 ERA versus Atlanta last five battles.  From the technical perspective, there is loads of support with Atlanta 6-0 UNDER on the road versus a losing unit and 14-3 UNDER L17 against units .500 road teams and 4-0-1 UNDER versus strong side hurlers.  With Holland, San Francisco brings an almost perfect 3-0-1 UNDER record after a quality start.  By the way, with umpire Tumpane behind the plate with Atlanta, the total is a PERFECT 6-0 UNDER.  Good Luck.

4* (911/912) San Diego/Arizona UNDER the total

 Lefty Lucchessi (7-7, 3.59) throws for the Padres who picked up a game #1 win in the road series yesterday.  Over his last two starts Lucchessi has gone 12-2/3 innings surrendering just 3 earned runs, striking out 9 and walking just 2.   He has allowed on average 4 runs a game in outings against Arizona, but he carries a solid 2.89 ERA on the road in 2018. Lefthander Ray (4-2, 4.55) pitched a solid 5-1/3 innings last time at Los Angeles allowing 1 earned run in 5-1/3 innings, while taking home the win.   Against San Diego he has thrown 25-2/3 innings averaging 3 runs per game.   From the series standpoint, there is conflicting data.  We assume, though, that some key trends will hold up this evening.  The Padres have not won back-to-back games vs. Arizona and are 13-31 against lefties.  They are a perfect 5-0 UNDER vs. a hurler with a +1.30 WHIP, 5-1 UNDER off a win.  They are UNDER 4-1 L5 games. Whereas, Arizona has been mired in a horrible slump over the last eleven games.  The D’backs have averaged 3 runs or less the last 10 of 11 games.   In addition, they are 8-0-1 UNDER off a loss and 9-0 UNDER vs. the NLW.  In closing, against lefties Arizona is 5-0 UNDER L5.  Good Luck.

LATE MONEY MOVE, SORRY NO ANALYSIS.

10* Mets/Giants UNDER 7-1/2

One of the major statistical and fundamental edges is the fact lefty Matz is off 5 days of rest for the Mets.  We realize the series has been OVER of late, but must go low today.  Sorry, for not a more indepth analysis, timing restrictions now.  Good Luck, and thank you.

7:10 Eastern

10* (915/916) Cleveland/Boston UNDER the total

MLB Revenge Total of the Year

 First off, last night inside our internal analysis we suggested that Boston and Cleveland would go under the total, but at 8-1/2 the number shot OVER in a 5-4 Cleveland win.  Here we love the number to stay UNDER at Fenway.  Boston has accrued solid support from RHP Eovaldi (5-4, 3.62) who has a live arm and just allowed one run in his start down in Philadelphia.  For the visiting Indians they use young Bieber (6-2, 4.37) who possesses a nice 2.70 ERA last three times on the mound.  From the technical standpoint, we have the Indians UNDER in 5-straight on Tuesday with umpire Knight calling the game.  Further, with Bieber on the hill they show 4-0 UNDER L4 starts.  Overall, Cleveland has been an UNDER unit in game #2 of a series…6-1 and counting.   In addition, they bring a real nice 4-1 UNDER mark versus strong side hurlers.  The Red Sox have powerful stats, 17-4 UNDER against righties and 11-4-1 UNDER L16 at home.  With the super additions from the tech archives, Go UNDER tonight.  Good Luck.

4* Cleveland/Boston UNDER the total...

With each unit coming off a weekend series' Cleveland vs. Baltimore, the Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay it appears we have an excellent shot on the total board.  From the UNDER standpoint the Sox are on a PERFECT 4-0 run when coming off a shutout at home and playing the next game in Fenway, they show 1-0 UNDER from that respect 2018.  In addition Boston is 5-0 UNDER on Monday's and 4-1 UNDER during game #1 of a series.  Cleveland uses hurler Kluber (15-6, 2.68) who arrives after a road performance holding the Reds to one earned run in seven innings of work.  He has a super 1.96 ERA L3 starts. Cleveland is 4-1 UNDER vs. Boston, while going 4-0 UNDER L4 of late. Porcello (15-5, 4.04) just shutdown the home standing Phillies limiting them to only one run.  He has experienced some super starts at home, so we expect a classic.  In closing, the series overall is 28-8-1 UNDER. GL.

3* SF/Mets UNDER the total

This is a difficult situation from the numbers standpoint considering the technical spot.  First off, the Mets return home after a murderous 9 day road trip with no rest.  Actually it was eleven games played during the time span.  New York is 4-1 UNDER after playing a 7+ day road schedule.  To me this is one of the definitive keys in the battle.  The Giants were just crushed by Cincinnati 11-4 in a game that had outstanding props?  Now they travel to New York on this extended roadie to face RHP Wheeler.  SF is 3-0-1 UNDER in road sets and 6-2 UNDER off a loss with lefty Holland in the box.  In addition, the New Yorkers bring a 3-0-2 UNDER mark Monday's.  Finally, with the Giants 6-1-1 UNDER L8 times out, stay low tonight.  Good Luck.

080518

Play on:  10* (929/930) Houston/Los Angeles UNDER the total

In the final game of the series the Astros bring RHP Cole (10-3, 2.35) to the mound, while the home standing Dodgers will rely on RHP Buehler (4-4, 3.65).   On the road this season Cole has put together a solid 6-2 mark with a 2.57 ERA.  At home, Buehler shows 2-3 with a 2.70 ERA thus far.  No matter each has been effective in their current roles reducing the offensive output of the opposition.  Overall the series has shot UNDER 5-of-6 in LA and 9-2-1 UNDER overall.  Houston is 12-2 UNDER with Interleague games and 6-0 UNDER in road IL games vs. RHP.  The Dodgers play with a solid 5-0 UNDER record when playing on the road in IL games.  Also, they show 7-1 UNDER during IL games with ALW units.  The Dodgers come in 6-1 UNDER with Buehler at home.  Closing, LA with umpire Hollbrooks calling a IL game show 4-0 UNDER.  Good Luck.

4* Cincinnati/Washington OVER the total

Not fooled by the recent outings of these two hurlers.  Overall each has struggled with control this season.  In addition, the Reds off a downer from the hitting standpoint should experience a solid bounce back in the hitters box.  Despite recent under trend in series, believe you will see a high scoring game even with Harper banged up for the Nationals.  GO HIGH!  Good Luck.

4* Miami/Philly UNDER the total

The recent series has been trending down with the total UNDER at a 5-1 clip.  Both hurlers Richards of Miami and Velasquez of Philadelphia have thrown well the last three times out.  Richards of Miami has allowed just one run in 18-2/3 innings of work, while Velasquez has gone 18 innings surrendering just two runs.  Considering this is game #2 of the series, and they expect an overcast setting with some showers, go UNDER.  Good Luck.

5* (963/964) San Francisco/Arizona UNDER 7-1/2

First off, would like to have tested Bumgarner (3-4, 3.06) in this spot, since the D'backs are 8-2 on the road versus Arizona. However, Grienke (12-5, 2.96) is 5-1 with a 2.39 ERA at home this season.  So, instead we'll take a ticket with the total angle.  Remember Grienke/Arizona shows 6-0 UNDER at home versus >.500 clubs, while SF is 12-2-2 UNDER off a win.   The Giants are 4-0 UNDER with Bumgarner vs. 'Zona and 6-1 UNDER at Arizona.  The D'Backs are a solid 6-1-1 UNDER when Greinke throws against San Francisco.   Go low tonight.  Good Luck. 

5* LA/MILWAUKEE UNDER 71/2...

First off the bad news, umpire Knight is 13-5 OVER the total L18 when calling balls and strikes.  He is also 13-6-1 OVER with Milwaukee.  However, there are numerous current reality angles to consider, the first being hurlers Chacin (Milwaukee) and Kershaw (LA) have been on fire the last three times to the mound.  Chacin is 2-0 coming off 18 innings of work (1.50 ERA) with a small WHIP of 0.44.  Star Kershaw is 1-1 in 20 innings (2.21 ERA) with a 1.13 WHIP.  Also, Chacin over the last 22-1/3 IP versus the Dodgers has allowed only 4 earned runs.  Kershaw has surrendered 8 earned runs vs. the Brewers last 29-1/3 innings of work.  Overall the series has shot UNDER with Kershaw 6-0-1 L7.  At Los Angeles the numbers bring in the Dodgers 6-1 UNDER L7 overall and 7-of-10 UNDER in meetings with Milwaukee.  Go low tonight in what should be a classic one-run encounter.  Good Luck.

072618

5* (913/914) Chicago/Los Angeles UNDER

The Angels crushed the Sox last night 11-3 and now look to complete the series with another win behind righty Tropeano (3-5, 4.58).  The hurler is off a solid 5 innings of work against Houston allowing just 1 run.  He is opposed by young Covey (4-5, 4.95) who just threw a super solid 8-1/3 innings versus Seattle not allowing an earned run.  Overall the series has gone UNDER 11-5-1 L17 meetings.  In addition, the Angels show 6-1 UNDER after scoring double-digits.  And, LA is 7-1-1 UNDER versus a unit with

072018

5* (927/928) Miami/Tampa Bay OVER the total

Despite the pitching brethren (Straily/Eovaldi) on the hill down in Tampa Bay, we look for a HIGH result from the runs standpoint.  Over the last ten games both Miami and Tampa Bay each have been productive at the plate with the Marlins scoring on average 5.3 runs per game, the Rays come in with 6.7 runs per outing.  From the batting average side of the equation Tampa Bay is ranked #8 with a 2.56 mark, Miami #15 hitting 2.46 on the season.  Each are well ahead of some quality units.  Visiting Miami is 7-0 OVER against RHP and 6-0 OVER on the road when facing interleague teams with over a .500 record.  Game #1 of a series RHP Straily is 6-1 OVER L7.  Home standing Rays bring a 7-5 OVER mark in game #1 when at home, 4-2 OVER L6 times out.  Also, Tampa Bay has changed character of late, going 2-0 OVER after a loss.  The Rays are 26-17 at home with Miami 18-29 on the road which is good indicator on how the run production will go this evening.  Good Luck.

10* WASHINGTON/PITTSBURGH OVER the total

Gonzo has a recent history of showing up UNDER the total both at home and away.  The only is he did not look good against Miami with 5 innings of work, allowing 8 hits and 2 runs. Over his last three starts he projects out with a 9.00 ERA.  Williams of the Pirates was rocked in his recent outing against the Phillies for 5 runs in just 2-1/2 innings of work.  Over the last starts Williams has fostered an 8.31 ERA. He is 4-4 with a 4.44 ERA this season.   The Bucs have gone UNDER in 6 straight but, I can't see that continuing here.   Williams and Pittsburgh show a perfect 7-0 in game #3 of a series.  Whereas, Gonzo shows some solid long-term OVER results vs. the NLC (15-5-2).  In closing, the SERIES has shot OVER at a 7-0-1 clip at Pittsburgh.  Good Luck.

10* Cincinnati/Atlanta OVER the total

There is conflicting edges inside the math this afternoon but, we see a strict adherence to the facts outlined.  First off the improved Braves come into action off a loss.  In that role Atlanta is 7-1 OVER, while lefty Newcomb 5-0 OVER off a quality start.  Cincinnati is 10-1-2 OVER vs. LHP, 5-1 L6 OVER in game #3 of a series. Go high today and cash again if you must win.  Good Luck.

Play on: 4* Boston/Seattle UNDER 8-1/2

Yesterday the Mariners canned the Sox up in Fenway 7-2.  Boston did not score until the 9th when the offense chipped in two runs.  To begin, they be without Bettis who is questionable for Sunday.  Forward, last time out lefty Sale of Boston went 7 innings, allowing just 2 runs and 3 hits, while striking out 11 hitters.  Inside Sale’s recent three appearances he has been super throwing 21 innings, surrendering just 11 hits and 4 runs!  His average ERA in those starts…2.77!  Seattle uses rejuvenated hurler Marco Gonzalez (7-4, 3.80) who in his most recent start (06/19) lost in New York to the Yankees (7-2).  The New York success was dictated by four home runs, all right-side swingers.  So, critical for Gonzalez is his effectiveness versus Rameriz, Moreland (Martinez not in lineup) and Bogaerts. Recently Gonzo went through a tough patch but, responded winning three straight games allowing only 5 runs.  He should be in bounce back mode this afternoon.  Technically the Mariners are 4-0 UNDER with Gonzalez in road tests and 4-0 UNDER after scoring 5 or more runs.   They are 7-1 UNDER L8 games.  The Sox looking to crack back come 5-2 UNDER after a “L.”  More importantly, Boston is 20-6 UNDER L26 and 7-1 UNDER at home.  They are 5-0 UNDER after surrendering 5 runs or more. The Series has shot UNDER at a 6-1 clip.  In closing, with umpire Dreckman calling balls and strikes the home unit 21-6-1 UNDER.  Good Luck.

After blow out night from Philadelphia look for their bats to cool off against the #1 prospect (Fedde) of the Nationals.  Fedde's last two outings were against the Yankees so, you might expect some damage but, we look for the youngster to be almost perfect today with most likely 6-7 innings of work.  The Phillies go RHP Nola (8-2, 2.55) who has been red hot this season.  So, in this situation we go LOW with a TOP PLAY forecast.  Good Luck.