Larry Ness
Larry Ness
4-game Sat MLB card opens with Larry's Rivalry Game of the Month (NYY/TB). 10* Game of Week highlights a card that also features a Situational Stunner (12-3 all sports s/Mar 17) and a 'Thunder Down Under' total.
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You'd be hard pressed to find a more experienced handicapper than 34 year legend Larry Ness! Larry has put up some impressive numbers on this site since coming over almost two years ago and he's ready to offer up all of the next year for one LOW LOW FLASH SALE PRICE!
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Free picks
My free play is on the LA Angels at 7:07 ET.
Shohei Ohtani had a three-run double and a solo HE Friday as the Angels defeated the Blue Jays 7-1 (Angels have won 12 of their past 15 games against the Blue Jays).The Angels have won the first two games of this four-game series and have matched a franchise best with their 6-2 start, having won six of their first eight games just TWICE before. It should be pointed out that the Angels entered the 2021 season HOPING to end a streak of FIVE straight losing seasons (the franchise's longest skid since the 1970s) and SIX consecutive non-playoff campaigns. Toronto made back-to-back appearances in the ALCS in 2015 and 2016 but three losing seasons followed, before the Blue Jays surprised all going 32-28 in 2020. However, Toronto was eliminated by Tampa Bay 2-0 in a best-of-three series. The Blue Jays are 3-5 to open the 2021 season.
The Angels will start left-hander Jose Quintana (0-0, 10.80 ERA) on Saturday and he'll square off against Toronto left-hander Steven Matz (1-0, 1.42 ERA).Quintana was AWFUL in his Angels debut (3.1 IP / 4 ERs), after signing as a free agent after nine years in Chicago, 5 1/2 with the White Sox and 3 1/2 with the Cubs. Quintana was limited to just four games (one start) and 10 innings last season because of a freak injury when he cut his thumb while washing dishes. He ultimately had surgery on the thumb and missed two months. Quintana pitched for Joe Maddon in 2017-19 with the Cubs. "He's a guy who normally eats up innings," Maddon said. "He has a repeatable, compact delivery and a nice arm stroke. His success, to me, relies on good game planning. He just needs a little direction on how to attack people ... how to use the really good stuff he already has."
In contrast, Matz was impressive in his Blue Jays debut April 5 at Arlington, Texas, when he struck out nine (just one walk) and allowed one ER in 6.1 innings. The Mets expected "big things" from Matz but he never delivered. He was 0-5 with a 9.68 ERA and a 1.70 WHIP in 2020 (nine appearances / six starts). The Mets had seen enough and traded Matz to Toronto Blue on January 27, 2021. Quintana has been an effective starter for parts of his MLB career and it sure doesn't hurt that Quintana is 7-2 with a 1.88 ERA and 61 strikeouts. He ranks second all-time in ERA among pitchers to make at least 10 career starts against Toronto. The Toronto team that Quintana faces on Saturday, has averaged just 3.3 PG through eight starts. LA wins again.
Good luck...Larry
YESTERDAY'S PLAYS
PICKS IN PROGRESS
My 8* Situational Stunner is on the Chi White Sox at 2:10 ET.
The Kansas City Royals opened the season 2-0 by scoring 25 runs in their first two games against the Rangers, However, the Royals have lost THREE of four while scoring a total of just eight runs after a 6-0 loss Thursday at Chicago (KC has scored FIVE runs in the team's three losses). The Chicago White Sox opened by losing THREE of four in Anaheim vs the Angels but have rebounded to win THREE of four. Both teams are 4-4 after a rare Friday off day and will resume their three-game series with this Saturday contest.
Mike Minor (1-0, 6.00 ERA) starts for KC and Dylan Cease (0-0, 5.79 ERA) for Chicago. Minor had a couple of solid seasons for Texas in 2018 (12-8) and 2019 (14-10) but was 0-5 (5.60 ERA) in seven starts for the Rangers in 2020 when he was traded to Oakland, where in five appearances (four starts) he was 1-1 with a 5.48 ERA. Naturally, KC signed him to a two-year deal for $18 million (can't make this stuff up). Minor picked up the victory in his start with KC, despite allowing four ERs in his first three innings, before settling down with three more shutout innings as the Royals came from behind to defeat the Texas Rangers 11-4.
Two White Sox starters have ERAs of 0.00, while the other three are over 4.00. Cease's ERA is 5.79 ERA after getting no decision in a 7-4 loss to the Angels. He struggled in the first inning of his April 4 start, allowing a 451-foot HR to Shohei Ohtani, before settling down. He finished allowing three runs on five hits in 4.2 innings. Cease has made 26 starts for Chicago the last two seasons (9-11) with a 5.00 ERA.
However, my play on Chicago has little to do with Cease. The Royals have only had one close game (decided by one or two runs) in their six decisions. They scored in double figures in their first two games and secured their third win with a 3-0 shutout. Yet, they have scored a total of five runs in their three losses. Meanwhile, the White Sox's four wins have come by at least four runs, with three of them coming by six runs. That's in stark contrast to their four losses, which have come by one, two, three and four runs. More notably, Minor is a lefty and Chicago was 14-0 vs left-handed starters last season (averaged 7.1 RPG) plus has opened 3-0 against them in 2021, averaging 9.3 RPG. You want to 'step in front of that train?' Not I.
Good luck...Larry
My 9* Rivalry Game of the Month is on the NY Yankees at 1:10 ET.
It's not Red Sox/ Yankees but the Rays/Yankees rivalry is gaining momentum quickly. Tampa Bay won the AL East by SEVEN games over New York in 2020 and then eliminated the Yankees in the ALDS by edging the Yankees 2-1 in the deciding Game 5 of the ALDS. Both teams enter Saturday's contest 3-4, after the Rays pounded the Yankees 10-5 10-5 in Tampa Bay's 2021 home opener on Friday afternoon. Tropicana Field's domed stadium had 9,021 fans in attendance for the unveiling of the two banners representing the clinching of the AL East Division and the AL pennant.
Getting the ball for the middle contest of this three-game series will be New York's Domingo German (0-1, 9.00) and Tampa Bay's Chris Archer (0-1, 13.50), German was 18-4 for the Yankees when he was placed on administrative leave by MLB pending an investigation of suspected domestic violence on September 19, 2019. It was confirmed on Sep 25 that he would not be eligible to participate in any baseball action for the remainder of 2019, including the postseason, German made just ONE start in 2020. German will make just his SECOND start since Aug. 20, 2019 on Saturday, after being roughed for four runs (three earned) in two innings of relief last Saturday.
Chris Archer was considered one of the stars of Tampa Bay's rotation from 2013 through 2018 but he was clearly overrated (see his stats during that time, if you don't believe me). He was traded to Pitts during the 2018 season and went 3-3 with a 4.30 ERA. he then imploded in 2019, going 3-9 with a 5.19 ERA and 1,41 WHIP in s 23 starts (Pirates were 8-15), Archer missed all of 202 with a health issue but signed a one-year, $6.5 million contract with the Tampa Bay Rays on Feb 2, 20201. Archer lasted just TWO innings in his 2021 debut at Miami on April 4), allowing four runs (three earned).
My belief is that Archer is 'done,' so I'll back the Yankees to bounce back from Friday's shellacking. I'm giving German the benefit of the doubt, remembering his 18-4 season in 2019, when he had a MLB-best .818 winning percentage (note: Yanks won BOTH of his 2019 starts vs Tampa Bay).
Good luck...Larry
SERVICE BIO
Age: 65 (turns 66 in November).
Years in handicapping: Larry entered his 36th year as a professional handicapper in August of 2019.
Achievements in handicapping: 1985 Castaway’s Pro Football Challenge Champion, then the most prestigious handicapping contest in Las Vegas; 1999 Stardust Invitational semi-finalist.
A member of the original cast of Proline (began in 1985), the nation’s longest running pre-game handicapping show on the USA-TV network (also hosted Sports Desk on the same network from 1996-98). In then joined the panel of The Winning Edge in the early 2000s. Although well-known on TV for his expert game analysis and no-nonsense handicapping style, Larry may be best known for his radio work. He hosted his own syndicated call-in radio show, Sports Central. It aired live from Bally's Casino in Las Vegas in the early to mid-90s and at one time was heard in more than 100 markets.
Systems used for handicapping a game: Fundamental and statistical analysis. "I'm not typically a trend and system kind of guy," Ness says. "I look at team strengths and weaknesses and compare them. It’s an all-encompassing thing and over 35-plus years, you get good at it."
Star Ratings: 9 and 10*s are considered "Best Bets." All other plays are rated between 6 and 8*s, depending on strength and/or price.
Release Times: Larry releases "daily sports" (MLB, NBA, NCAAB and NHL) on the day of the game. His full card is almost always available by 10:00 ET (save Late-Breaking games). In the FB season, Larry begins releasing plays as early as Tuesday. His full CFB card is typically complete by Thursday (on Friday, at the latest) and his full NFL card will be mostly complete by Friday (definitely by Saturday at 3:00 ET). 36-Club Play: It represents Larry's 36 years in the business and gets his highest star rating (10*s). Expect no more than one of these plays per month, per sport during the regular season. LEGEND Play: Larry's often been referred to as a Las Vegas legend and he's 'borrowed' the title for his other "signature play.". Larry's LEGEND Plays were previously available to only a select group of private clients but they are now available to all, via the internet. Like his 36-Club plays, expect no more than one play per month, per sport (rated 10*s). Game of the Month and Game of the Year Plays: Always rated 10*s. Las Vegas Insider: Throughout his 36 years "in the business," Larry has become known as "the ultimate Las Vegas insider." The contacts he's developed over more than three decades (on both sides of the 'counter'), are arguably "unmatched!" He confers daily with 'his 'friends' and when "all the stars align on the same game," Larry releases an exclusive Las Vegas Insider (rated between 7 and 10*s). Oddsmaker's Error Plays: Larry uses this term with "great respect" (and not very often), as he counts among his very closest friends many of Las Vegas' most famous and respected Sport Book directors (past and present). However, when Larry feels "the line is significantly off," he'll release one of these "not to be missed" plays (rated 9 or 10*s). Situational Stunners: Larry's a fundamental handicapper at heart but he does pay attention to team and situational trends (especially in MLB). When his fundamental handicapping and a strong trend or situation match up, he releases a Situational Stunner. He began releasing these plays in MLB '09 and he's expanded them since,to all sports (rated from 7-10*s, based on strength and/or price for moneyline sports). PERFECT STORM: Larry just added these plays the last few years and his accompanying expert analysis makes these popular plays self-explanatory (typically rated 9 or 10*s but moneyline sports may be rated 7 or 8*s due to price). Weekly and Weekend Wipeout Winners: Larry added this self-explanatory moniker just a few years ago. They've become immensely popular and why not? Who wouldn't want a game that has "blowout written all over it," supported by Larry's expert analysis (rated between 7 and 10*s, depending on strength and price). Superstar Triple Play: Over the years, many of Larry's regular clients have clamored for more three-game reports. You asked for it and Larry's responded. Back in the late 1980s and into the mid 1990s, 900-numbers became "the rage." While a panel member of Proline (see above), Larry created the Superstar Triple Play. One call got you three Superstar Triple Plays (in a particular sport). For almost a decade, anywhere from 1,500 to 3,500 callers responded each weekend, when Larry offered his famous "Superstar Triple Play" pitch on Proline. Starting in 2009, Larry began going "Back to the Future!" Look for 3-game reports this FB season on Saturday (college) and Sunday (NFL). Get three plays on a single report from Larry (many will be TV games), the originator of the "Superstar Triple Play!". Late-Breaking Plays: Larry will always go back and take a "second look" at each day's card, after posting all his games. When he finds something he missed the first time around, he'll release a Late-Breaking Play. These plays are more prevalent in sports like baseball and basketball than football (typically rated at 8 or 9*s).
Quote: "No one works any harder and my work-product speaks for itself," Ness says. "I have a no-nonsense style and my logic is easy to follow. Anyone buying my plays will know exactly what I was thinking when I made the selection. After 34 years, the Larry Ness brand is instantly recognizable and my analysis ranks with the best in the industry."
