Larry Ness Sports Picks

My free play is on the StL Cards at 8:05 ET.

COVID-19 kept the Cardinals off the field for 17 days but through it all, St Louis finds itself on the postseason 'bubble' with SEVEN days remaining in the regular season. The Cards would love to 'make hay' with their three-game series in KC Monday-Wednesday, as the Royals are 21-32. The 26-24 Cards enter Monday on a three-game winning streak but find themselves involved in a muddy playoff situation in the National League. They are currently a half-game ahead of the Phillies for the seventh playoff spot but a half-game behind the Phillies is a three-way gaggle of the Reds, Brewers and Giants. ONE of the three teams from the NL Central will claim the second automatic spot from the division, while the other four teams will be battling for two spots. Putting even more pressure on the Cards (especially the team's pitching staff) is that they may have to play 10 games. There are eight games remaining on the schedule, including a five-game series with the Brewers in St. Louis to conclude the regular season but if the two other games need to be played, they'll be played in Detroit Sep 28 against the Tigers.

It stands to reason that this three-game series against the "playing out the string" Royals is VERY important. Anything less than TWO wins (3-0 sweep would be 'gravy') is MANDATORY! Adam Wainwright (5-1, 2.87 ERA) gets the nod for St Louis, while KC counters with rookie Carlos Hernandez (0-0, 3.86 ERA). St Louis converted Wainwright to a starter in 2007 and over the next seven seasons, he twice won 20 games and two other times won 19 games. During those four seasons, (2009, '10, '13 and '14), he twice finished second in the Cy Young voting and twice finished third. Injuries limited him to less than 10 starts in TWO of the next four years (2015-18) but at 37, he made 31 starts in 2019. He won five decisions last September to finish with his most victories (14) since winning 20 in 2014. Wainwright drew the season's second start on the strength of the throwing program he maintained during the pandemic shutdown. Wainwright's been excellent this season, allowing three ERs or less in SEVEN of his eight starts (Cards are 6-2). He's pitched at least six innings in all but one start, the exception being a five-inning effort in a doubleheader game (7 innings). Wainwright has pitched well against the Royals in his 15-year MLB career, going 5-2 with a 3.96 ERA in 13 games (10 starts / Cards are 6-4). In fact, that's the most appearances and starts against any American League team, with the exception of the Astros, who were in the National League for the first seven years of Wainwright's career.

Hernandez has made three appearances in 2020, all since Sep 1. He made his first career start Sep 12 against the Pirates, allowing three runs on three hits (all solo HRs). Hernandez's longest outing this year was 3.2 innings in relief, so the Royals bullpen will need to be ready early. Expect Wainwright to continue his VERY good year and give St Louis six-plus innings. Cards NEED this one and GET it!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Ultimate Underdog is on the Sea Mariners at 9:10 ET. 

The Seattle Mariners, who have been displaced the last five games because of poor air quality due to wildfires in the Pacific Northwest, will return to Seattle to play host to the Houston Astros on Monday night. The 23-30 Mariners went 1-4 as the "home" team in San Francisco and San Diego but now get a chance to finish their eight-game homestand at home. Seattle' season will be over at the end of the week but the Mariners have a chance to make the Astros 'sweat a little,' as Houston looks to close in a playoff spot by finishing in second-place in the AL West. Houston owns a FOUR-game lead over Seattle for second place and as each team has just seven games remaining, Houston's 'magic number' is two.

Houston's lead over Seattle is actually FIVE games, as the Astros owns the tiebreaker (no time for one-game tiebreakers this season). The starting pitchers are Lance McCullers (3-2, 4.87 ERA) for Houston and Marco Gonzales (6-2, 3.49 ERA). Let me get these three stats out of the way first, before making a case for Gonzales and Seattle. No. 1 is, the Astros are 24-2 against the M's over the past two seasons. No. 2 is that McCullers is 7-2 with a 2.95 ERA in 13 career starts against Seattle (Astros are 10-3) and No. 3 is that Gonzales is going 0-5 with a 6.61 ERA in seven career starts vs Houston (team is 0-7). In fact, Gonzales took the loss on Opening Day in Houston, as he allowed four runs (three earned) over 4.1 innings of an 8-2 Seattle loss.

Right now you may be asking, "What the hell are we doing playing Seattle, Larry?" Fair enough but here's why. Since that July 24 start, Gonzales has gone 6-1 (3.26 ERA) over 52.1 innings with a KW ratio of 59-4! As for McMullers, he's pitched well at home in five starts (3-0 with a 1.45 ERA and .159 BAA) but look what's happened in his four road starts. He's lasted just 12.2 innings, allowing 19 ERs for a 13.50 ERA, while opponents have batted .393 against him (those are NOT typos!). Houston will clinch it's playoff berth this week but NOT tonight! Take the 'juicy' price on the home dog!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Cin Reds at 6:40 ET.

The 27-27 Cincinnati Reds and 26-26 Milwaukee Brewers remain in contention for a postseason spot entering the final week of this uniquely condensed 2020 regular season. The Reds have won SEVEN of eight as they welcome Milwaukee to Cincinnati for this 3-games series with the Brewers having won a season-high four straight to reach .500 for the first time since Aug 19. Cincinnati is 4-3 against the Brewers, with all of those games coming at Milwaukee. 

The Brewers will go with Brandon Woodruff (2-4, 3.45 ERA),Monday's game, while the Reds counter with Luis Castillo (3-5, 3.03 ERA). Woodruff had a breakout season in 2019, making the All Star team. He posted his 11th victory in his first start after the All-Star break but then suffered an oblique strain that sidelined him for nearly two months. He made just three starts (including a wild card game vs the Nats) after returning on Sep 17. Of note was that the Brewers were a MONEY-MAKING 18-4 in his 22 regular season starts in 2019. However, the Brewers are just 5-6 in Woodruff's 11 starts in 2020, despite the fact that he's allowed three ERs or less in 10 of those 11 starts.

Castillo started strong in 2019 with an 11-4 mark and enjoyed his first All-Star selection (was 8-3 with a 2.29 ERA at the break). His 11th win came on August 5 but he won just FOUR of his last nine starts (Reds were just 4-5 in those games). However, his 15 wins were fifth-best in the NL and his 226 strikeouts tied for 12th in strikeouts per nine innings (10.7). Castillo will be getting his first start against the Tigers. Castillo set the bar high on the heels of his breakout season in 2019, claiming before the season that he'd like to capture the National League Cy Young Award in 2020, However, didn't earn his FIRST win of 2020 until his eighth start of the season. He was 0-5 with a 4.10 ERA in those games (Reds were 1-6).

As Castillo takes the mound tonight, he's turned his season around this month. He's won all three of his September starts, allowing just three ERs in 22 innings (1.23 ERA) with 24 Ks. The Reds currently own the No. 8 playoff spot in the NL but also have the Cards well within the sights for second in the NL Central (one game back), a finish that would guarantee them a playoff berth. The Reds finish the season with three games in Minnesota. meaning this three-game set will be the team's final three home games of the season (playoffs or not). The good news tonight is that Castillo's in excellent current form (see) and that Milwaukee's recent four-game winning streak came at home, while the Brewers have won just TWICE in their last nine road games.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* MNF Magic Play is on the LV Raiders at 8:15 ET.

Last Sunday night on NBC, the LA Rams opened their $5 billion West Coast NFL showpiece, SoFi Stadium, by edging the Cowboys 20-17. The only thing missing was the fans. Monday night on ESPN, the Las Vegas Raiders get their chance to show off their shiny new $2 billion stadium near the Las Vegas Strip with a high-profile matchup against Drew Brees and the New Orleans Saints but like last Sunday night in LA, the stadium will be empty. Monday's night's Week 2 contest was supposed to be a big celebration of the NFL's arrival in Las Vegas but the atmosphere has been dampened a bit by the decision not to allow fans at Raiders games this season in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. That said, the venue is beautiful and both teams are coming off Week 1 wins.

The Raiders have been waiting for this moment for years, as they've spent the past 25 seasons playing in the rundown Oakland Coliseum. The team was unable to get an agreement on a new stadium in the Bay Area and was blocked from moving to Los Angeles, so it ended up in the desert instead. This game also marks the first time Saints coach Sean Payton and Raiders coach Jon Gruden, who are old friends and colleagues, have been on opposite sidelines since Gruden left Tampa Bay after the 2008 season. Gruden was the Eagles offensive coordinator under coach Ray Rhodes when Payton was hired to his first NFL job as Philadelphia's quarterbacks coach in 1997.

I had the Saints in their Week 1 win over Brady and the Bucs, noting that this could be Brees' last season, as a TV job awaits. The Saints have won more regular-season games than any team in the NFL over the past three seasons (11-5, 13-3, 13-3), only to suffer three gut-wrenching playoff defeats in the final seconds (the "Minneapolis Miracle," the "No-call" and an overtime loss to the Minnesota Vikings last season). Brees has not made it back to a Super Bowl since his only championship in the 2008 season. However, his efficiency has been as good as ever the past couple of seasons. He set an NFL record with a 74.4% completion rate in 2018 and nearly matched it last season, when he completed 74.3% of his passes, while also throwing a career-low four interceptions.

Brees had two TDs passes last Sunday (no picks) but threw for just 160 yards. He got very little help from his running game as Alvin Kamara, who FINALLY agreed to a long-term deal with the club right before the start of the season, ran for just 16 yards on 12 carries (he did catch five balls for 51 yards. Murray added 49 yards rushing but the Saints had just 82 yards rushing for the game. The Saints' rush D has been excellent the last few seasons, as New Orleans has not allowed a 100-yard rusher in 44 consecutive games entering this contest (held the Bucs to just 86 yards on 3.3 YPC last week). The Saints' D also gave Brady fits with two INTs, including a 'pick-6.'

The Raiders won 34-30 last Sunday at Carolina, as Derek Carr completed 22 of 30 (73.3%) for 239 yards with one TD and no INTs (107.8 QB rating. RB Josh Jacobs ran for 93  yards but averaged just 3.7 YPC. However, he did score three TDs and also caught four passes for 46 yards. Expect continued success by this Alabama product who ran for 1,150 yards (4.8 YPC) and seven TDs as a rookie last season (played just 13 games)! The Raiders blew a 12-point fourth quarter lead last Sunday but Carr engineered a nine-play, 75-yard TD drive (Jacobs capped it with a six-yard TD run) for the win.

As noted earlier, I had the Saints last Sunday but I was NOT impressed with Brees and WR Thomas, who has caught 100-plus passes the last three seasons, including 149 in 2019 for 1,725 yards, has been ruled out for this game. I am well aware that the Saints are on a 12-3 ATS run as road favorite but I'm counting on some MNF home team 'magic,' even without fan support. "It still is as a football fan a cool feeling to be able to play on Monday night," QB Derek Carr said. "We wish our city here, Las Vegas, we wish they could experience it with us. I'm sure they will be around somewhere. I'm sure there is a certain street or strip that they'll be on that our fans will be at. But I wish they could be there, but hopefully it still feels the same energy and all those kinds of things." Take the MNF home dog.

Good luck...Larry