Frank Sawyer

FRANK’S CUTTING ROOM FLOOR FOR WEDNESDAY, 6/10:

My “Cutting Room Floor” plays are the situations I considered the closest to being worthy of investment but did not make the “final cut” for my official plays today for subscribers. The last play I cut for Wednesday is with the New York Knicks minus the points versus the San Antonio Spurs in Game Four of the NBA Finals. New York (68-32) had won 13 games in a row before their 115-111 upset loss at home as a 1.5-point favorite against the Spurs on Monday. The Knicks have still covered the point spread in 32 of their last 47 games at home. They have also covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games at home when playing with revenge. San Antonio (75-29) has won three of their last five games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after pulling off an upset victory on the road. The Spurs have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after an upset victory in their last game. Take New York minus the points. Best of luck — Frank.

Frank Sawyer remains on a 17 of 19 (89%) NHL run despite losing the Carolina-Vegas Under last night! Frank is on a 24 of 38 (63%) NBA Finals run with featured 25*/20*/10* plays — and he BOUNCES BACK TONIGHT with the Spurs-Knicks’ O/U winner on ABC-TV at 8:30 PM ET! WATCH and WIN — and BANK on Frank!

At 8:30 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in Game Four of the NBA Finals between the San Antonio Spurs (507) and the New York Knicks (508). THE SITUATION: San Antonio (75-29) won their first game in this series on Monday with their 115-111 upset victory on the road in New York against the Knicks as a 1.5-point underdog. New York (68-32) had won 13 games in a row before that loss in Game Three.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Despite Game Three being the highest-scoring game in this series with 226 combined points scored, they made some tactical adjustments that should lead to a lower-scoring game tonight. Head coach Mitch Johnson moved Victor Wembanyama off defending Karl-Anthony Towns and on to less dangerous scoring threats like Josh Hart. This shift made it safer for Wemby to patrol the paint and protect the rim against any Knicks’ player on the inside. The Spurs also responded to Jalen Brunson’s attempts to drive to the hoop in isolation off the pick-and-roll by collapsing to the hoop. This tactic dared Brunson to make plays for his teammates — and this was something he seemed reluctant to do. Maybe it was from wanting to please the energetic crowd in Madison Square Garden, but Brunson spent too much time dribbling rather than attacking or passing in Game Three. This new defensive look contributed to his indecisiveness. Johnson also deployed more four-guard sets with Wemby surrounded by De’Aaron Fox, Stephon Castle, Dylan Harper, and Devin Vassell. This lineup gives San Antonio more flexibility in defending Brunson since all four of those guards can match up against him. The Spurs also played at a slower pace and resisted the temptation to fly up and down the court. They only had 14 transition possessions on Monday after enjoying 31 transition possessions in Game One and 25 transition possessions in Game Two. The Spurs have played 16 of their last 23 games on the road Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Except for the second quarter, when New York outscored San Antonio by a 42-24 margin, they were out of their offensive rhythm most of the game. They only assisted on 18 of their 40 made baskets in Game Three. In Game One, they assisted on 12 of their 39 buckets. In Game Two, they assisted on 29 of their 37 made shots. Tellingly, nine of their 18 team assists came in that second quarter. Can the Knicks get back to that second quarter rhythm from Game Three — or did the Spurs make the appropriate adjustment? I suspect it is the latter. New York should cut down on their 13 turnovers that led 21 points for San Antonio. The Knicks want a slower pace as well. After giving up 15 made 3-pointers from the corner in Game One, New York is doing a better job of limiting those shots. The Knicks have played 14 of their last 24 home games Under the Total with the Total set in the 210s — and they have played 7 of their last 11 home games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. They have played 7 of their last 9 playoff games at home Under the Total when leading in the series. 

FINAL TAKE: New York has played 14 of their last 23 games Under the Total when playing with revenge. 10* NBA San Antonio-New York ABC-TV O/U Special with Under the Total in Game Four of the NBA Finals between the San Antonio Spurs (507) and the New York Knicks (508). Best of luck for us — Frank.