Sean Murphy

My selection is on the Athletics over Milwaukee at 10:05 pm et on Tuesday.

The Brewers won a wild one, 15-14 in extra innings last night and we cashed with the 'over'. We'll back the Athletics on Tuesday as they look to bounce back and end Milwaukee's four-game winning streak. The A's will hand the ball to J.T. Ginn. With their bullpen in shambles right now they could certainly use a quality outing from Ginn in this spot and I think they'll get it. Ginn enters in terrific form as he has allowed just one earned run on six hits over 12 innings in his last two outings. Despite his home park being hitter-friendly Sutter Health Park in Sacramento (this game will be played at a Triple-A venue in Las Vegas), he has posted a solid 4.08 FIP and 1.08 WHIP in 14 appearances this season. Robert Gasser will make a spot start for the Brewers. He hasn't fared well at the big league level this season, posting a 5.51 FIP and 1.43 WHIP in 13 1/3 innings of work. With the Brewers bullpen also having been overworked lately and missing a couple of key arms due to injury, they'll likely try to stretch Gasser out for as many innings as they can here and that should benefit the A's bats. Take the Athletics (8*).

My selection is on Boston over Tampa Bay at 6:40 pm et on Tuesday.

The Red Sox have dropped consecutive games including the opener of this series last night but I expect them to rebound on Tuesday. Payton Tolle will take the ball for Boston. After a rocky start to his big league career last year, he has shown poise beyond his years here in 2026, logging a 2.66 FIP and 0.97 WHIP through eight starts, posting a 3-2 record along the way. While the Red Sox have really struggled offensively over the last week, it's not as if the Rays are tearing the cover off the baseball either, ranking 26th in xwOBA over that stretch. Behind Tolle is a Red Sox bullpen that has been elite this season, recording a collective 3.15 ERA and 1.19 WHIP and those numbers get even better on the road with a 3.00 ERA and 1.05 WHIP and seven saves converted compared to just one blown. Tampa Bay will hand the ball to Nick Martinez. He's been better than expected this season but checks in off his worst outing of the campaign having allowed six earned runs on nine hits over four innings against the Tigers last week. While the Red Sox bats have been slumping, they should be happy to see Martinez as their current hitters have gone 19-for-58 (.328) with an .839 OPS against him. The Rays bullpen has been overworked lately with three different relievers having worked two of the last three days and thrown 36 or more pitches. After a terrific start to the season, the Rays relief corps has cooled off lately, posting a 5.15 ERA and 1.40 WHIP over the last month. Take Boston (8*).

National League Game of the Year. My selection is on Cincinnati over San Diego at 9:40 pm et on Tuesday.

The Reds are reeling having lost five straight games including the opener of this series last night. They're well-positioned to bounce back on Tuesday, however, as they send their ace Chase Burns to the hill against Lucas Giolito. Burns has been terrific in the early going this season, posting a 7-1 record to go along with a 3.36 FIP and 0.95 WHIP. He really hasn't suffered any considerable drop-off in effectiveness on the road compared to at home over the course of his young career. I like the fact that he's starting on full rest here and enters in terrific form having held nine straight opponents to two earned runs or less. Giolito has made just four starts this season and hasn't been good, logging a 6.65 FIP and 1.74 WHIP. He hasn't fared well against current Reds hitters as they've gone 13-for-42 (.310) with a 1.003 OPS against the veteran right-hander. To make matters worse, the Padres bullpen is gassed right now with a number of relievers likely unavailable due to recent workloads, including closer Mason Miller. While the Reds bats have been quiet during their slide, they still sit three places ahead of the Padres in xwOBA over the last week. Take Cincinnati (10*).

My selection is on Carolina over Vegas at 8 pm et on Tuesday.

The Hurricanes dropped a wild 5-4 double-overtime decision on Saturday to fall behind 2-1 in this series. I look for them to answer back on Tuesday, noting that they have lost consecutive games just once dating all the way back to January 4th with that coming during a two-game slide on January 12th and 13th. The Canes have certainly been road warriors this season, going 30-18 while outscoring opponents by an average margin of 0.7 goals. We'll likely see Carolina make a change in the crease after Brandon Bussi was excellent in relief of Frederik Andersen in Game 3. I think that change might be just what the Canes need to help even this series up at two games apiece heading back to Carolina. Take Carolina (8*).

Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Carolina and Vegas at 8 pm et on Tuesday.

This has been a wild series with the 'over' cashing in each of the first three games, fortuitously so in a sense. On Saturday, we didn't see a single goal until the game was well into the second period. However, just as the first two games in the series went, goals came in bunches and the end result was a 5-4 Golden Knights victory in double-overtime. The fact that the 'over' has now cashed in the Hurricanes last four games is notable as it puts them into uncharted territory in that regard. They've yet to deliver five consecutive 'over' results at any point this season. Meanwhile, the Golden Knights are riding a three-game 'under' streak and have put together only two previous 'over' streaks lasting four games or more this season with the most recent coming back in January. This is obviously a pivotal point in this series and we may end up have a 'catalyst for change' at work should Carolina make the switch to goaltender Brandon Bussi as the starter as we expect it to. Take the under (10*).

Underdog Game of the Month. My selection is on Chicago plus the points over Atlanta at 7 pm et on Tuesday.

We'll grab all the points we can get with the Sky on Tuesday as they welcome former teammate Angel Reese back to town as a member of the Dream. This will mark the first meeting between these two teams this season and I can't help but feel the oddsmakers have missed the mark. Atlanta does check in off a blowout win over Washington on Saturday (we won with the Dream in that 109-77 rout). Of note, Atlanta is just 2-3 ATS in five road games to date this season. Chicago has dropped the cash in an incredible seven straight games, going 1-6 SU over that stretch. The Sky did manage to win their most recent home games, albeit against the lowly Sun on June 5th. I don't think Chicago has played quite as poorly as its record indicates. The opposition has taken a volume-shooting approach against the Sky, getting off more than 70 field goal attempts in four straight and seven of their last eight contests. With that being said, I'm not convinced Atlanta will take the same approach here, perhaps to its own detriment. Note that the Dream have hoisted uπ 68 or fewer field goal attempts in seven straight games. On the flip side, Atlanta has held six straight opponents to 67 or fewer field goal attempts with all six of those foes connecting on 43.9% or better and three knocking down more than 47% of its attempts. Take Chicago (10*).