Jack Jones

Jack's Free Pick Wednesday: Atlanta Hawks -4

The Atlanta Hawks have a lot to play for sitting in 5th place in the East.  They are desperate to avoid the play-in and to win the Southeast Division.  They are only 0.5 games ahead of the Raptors for 6th place and can grab a stranglehold on the division title with a win tonight.  Atlanta is sitting 2.5 games ahead of the Magic and 3 games ahead of both the Heat and Hornets.

The Hawks are playing their best basketball of the season to put themselves in this position.  They have gone 16-2 SU & 14-4 ATS in their last 18 games overall.  Atlanta is fully healthy and showing what it is capable of when that's the case.  The Hawks are coming off a 112-102 win over the Boston Celtics.  They also had yesterday off so they are rested.

This is a terrible spot for the Magic.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back, their 4th game in 5 days and their 8th game in 13 days tonight.  They are short-handed right now playing without two of their top four scorers in Franz Wagner (21.3 PPG) and Anthony Black (15.3 PPG).

Being without these guys is a big reason the Magic are going through their worst stretch of the season.  They are just 2-7 SU in their last nine games overall.  One of those wins was a 4-point win over the tanking Kings as 15.5-point favorites.  The other was a 4-point win over the Suns last night, who were playing the 2nd of a back-to-back themselves.  They lost by 52 to the Raptors in between.

The Hawks actually own the Magic going 7-3 SU & 6-4 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  They won 127-112 and 124-112 at home, and 111-107 in Orlando in their three meetings thus far this season.  I expect them to complete the season sweep and cover this short number in the process tonight.  Bet the Hawks Wednesday.

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20* AL GAME OF THE WEEK on Boston Red Sox -141

I love the spot for the Boston Red Sox today.  They have lost four in a row including the first two games of this series to the Houston Astros.  The Red Sox will be highly motivated to avoid the sweep today.

I like the chances with ace Garrett Crochet on the mound tonight.  Crochet is responsible for their lone win this season as he fired 6 shutout innings with 8 K's in a 3-0 win over the Reds in the season opener.  He is one of the best starters in baseball after going 18-5 with a 2.59 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in 32 starts for the Red Sox last season with 255 K's in 205 1/3 innings.

Mike Burrows is 3-5 with a 4.11 ERA and 1.29 WHIP in 20 starts and five relief appearances in his career.  Burrows was rocked for 5 earned runs, 2 homers and 11 base runners in 5 2/3 innings of a 6-2 loss to the Angels in his first start this season.  The Astros have won four straight since, but they get back in the loss column today given their massive disadvantage on the mound.  Bet the Red Sox Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Night BLOWOUT on San Antonio Spurs -13.5

The Spurs are playing better than anyone in the NBA as they try and chase down the Oklahoma City Thunder for 1st place in the West.  They rank 3rd in offensive rating, 3rd in defensive rating and 2nd in net rating only behind the Thunder.  They are legit title contenders.

The Spurs have gone 25-2 SU & 18-9 ATS in their last 27 games overall.  Amazingly, 16 of those 25 wins have come by 13 points or more so they have been blowing out teams on the regular.  They are fully healthy right now, and asking them to win this game by 14 points or more to cover isn't asking too much.

The Golden State Warriors are basically content with being the 10th seed in the West at this point and having to play two road games to make the playoffs.  They aren't tanking, they just don't have the horses right now to be competitive.

The Warriors are 11-20 SU & 10-21 ATS in their last 31 games overall, which basically coincided with losing Steph Curry and Jimmy Butler.  But they are also without Porzingis, Post, Moody, Melton and Horford tonight with both Santos and Payton II questionable.  They are without five of their top six scorers and basically a G League in their current state.  They have no chance of keeping this game competitive tonight.  Bet the Spurs Wednesday.

15* MLB Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Angels/Cubs UNDER 6

The forecast will aid us in cashing this UNDER 6 ticket between the Angels and Cubs today.  Temps will be in the 30's with 20 MPH winds blowing in from center at Wrigley Field this afternoon.  It was a similar forecast in a 2-0 win by the Angels yesterday, but this one is even better for pitchers than yesterday even.

Matthew Boyd went 14-8 with a 3.21 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in 31 starts for the Cubs last season.  Yusei Kikuchi went 7-11 with a 3.99 ERA in 33 starts for the Angels last season.  He has never faced the Cubs so has the element of surprise.  Boyd is 2-1 with a 2.76 ERA and 0.92 WHIP in three career starts against the Angels.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Utah Jazz +17

The Utah Jazz have played three straight playoff contenders and were competitive with two of them.  They lost by 9 to the Cavs as 16.5-point home dogs, and their lone non-competitive loss was to the Suns on the 2nd of a back-to-back.

The other was a 135-129 road loss at Denver as 19.5-point dogs.  The Jazz shot just 27.3% from 3 yet still only lost by 6 to the Nuggets on the road.  Now they want revenge from that defeat at 17-point home dogs in the rematch here just five days later.  This number has been inflated and we will take advantage.

The Nuggets are such a poor defensive team which makes it difficult for them to cover these inflated numbers.  Denver is just 2-5 ATS in its last seven games overall which includes an outright upset road loss at Memphis as 12.5-point favorites.  Denver has just one win by more than 16 points in its last seven games.

I don't see the Nuggets being all that motivated to beat the Jazz again here less than a week later.  And they have a big game on deck against the Spurs that they could be looking ahead to.  Either way, this number is inflated.  Bet the Jazz Wednesday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on 76ers/Wizards OVER 237.5

The Washington Wizards are a dead nuts OVER team.  They are 12-5 OVER in their last 17 games overall.  They have gone for 242 or more combined points in 13 of those 17 games, so this total of 237.5 is very short for a game involving the Wizards right now.  They rank 6th in pace and 29th in defensive rating.

The 76ers are an OVER team when they are as healthy as they are right now.  They recently got Maxey, Embiid, George and Oubre back from injury, which are four of their top five scorers.  Embiid will sit tonight, but the 76ers have a ton of firepower even without him and should hang a big number on the Wizards to pave the way to us cashing this OVER ticket with ease.

The Wizards will have two key guards in Johnson and Coulibaly available tonight.  They won't have Sarr, but that just makes them even smaller and having to play more small ball really benefits OVERS.  The OVER is 4-1 in the last five meetings with 241 or more combined points in two of three meetings this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.