Sean Murphy

My selection is on Phoenix plus the points over Atlanta at 3 pm et on Sunday.

We'll grab all the points we can get with the Mercury on Sunday as they look to snap their two-game slide as they open their three-game road trip in Atlanta. Phoenix is off to a 2-4 SU and ATS start to the season. It's certainly worth noting that the Mercury have faced a difficult schedule, going up against the Aces, Valkyries, Lynx, Sky, Tempo and Sparks. Even the Tempo have been a 'tough out' in the early going this season. While the Dream are a quality team as well, I do think the Mercury can hang in this matchup. Atlanta is just one day removed from an 86-69 rout of Dallas, marking its third straight ATS victory. I do think Phoenix will be afforded its share of opportunities in this matchup, noting that Atlanta has allowed its first four opponents to hoist up 70, 73, 73 and 74 field goal attempts. Despite the lopsided end result on Friday, the Dream were forced to give their starters plenty of run with all five playing 30+ minutes. I do think the rest advantage does factor in here and it favors the visiting Mercury. Take Phoenix (8*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Washington and Seattle at 6 pm et on Sunday.

While Seattle does enter this contest riding a four-game 'under' streak and we generally prefer to go against streaks like that, I'm not sure the oddsmakers can set this total low enough. Washington has been idle for nearly a week, last playing in a 92-69 loss at Dallas on Monday. The Mystics have gotten off to a fine 2-2 start (3-1 ATS) to the season but to say they've been turnover-happy would be an understatement. They've turned the ball over 18, 13, 20 and 18 times through four games. It's been a similar story for Seattle. I'm just not convinced either offense can take advantage of its extra possessions should it be afforded those opportunities in this particular matchup. The Storm play about as slow as any team in the league, hoisting up 63 or fewer field goal attempts in five of six games to date. Washington has attempted more than 68 field goals in just one of four games and that came in a contest they were chasing against the Liberty. The Mystics do have to clean things up defensively as they've allowed 33, 36 and 33 made field goals over their last three games. Keep in mind, that's largely been a result of their difficult schedule as those three contests came against the Liberty, Fever and Wings. Seattle doesn't figure to take advantage here, noting that it has connected on 28 or fewer field goals in all six games to date and that's despite half of those games coming against the lowly Sun. Take the under (8*).

Interleague Game of the Week. My selection is on Chicago -1.5 runs over Houston at 2:20 pm et on Sunday.

The Cubs have now lost seven straight and 11 of their last 13 games overall but I like their chances of breaking out of their slump and avoiding the series sweep in convincing fashion against the Astros on Sunday. Of note, Houston still ranks 29th in the majors in xwOBA over the last week so it's not as if it has been rolling lately either. The Astros will be facing Cubs starter Shota Imanaga on Sunday. The left-hander is coming off his worst start of the season but I'm confident we'll see him bounce back here. He still owns a solid 3.38 FIP and 1.04 WHIP in 10 starts this season. Current Astros hitters have just six collective at-bats against him and they've gone 0-for-6 with three strikeouts. Peter Lambert will counter for Houston. It's been an up-and-down campaign for him so far, which is about par for the course. While current Cubs hitters haven't seen a lot of Lambert, what they have seen, they've liked, going 7-for-11 with a pair of home runs and a 1.947 OPS. Lambert has struggled wherever he has pitched for the most part during his five-year big league career, but owns a higher WHIP and lower strikeout-to-walk ratio on the road, as expected. The bullpen matchup favors the Cubs more than you might think. Chicago's 'pen has been among the best in baseball by a lot of metrics this season and checks in sporting a 2.81 ERA and 1.21 WHIP over the last week. Most of its high-leverage arms are rested and good to go for this series finale. The same can't be said for the Astros overworked 'pen. It owns a 5.52 ERA and 1.55 WHIP this season with those numbers rising to 5.90 and 1.60 on the road. Take Chicago -1.5 runs (10*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Colorado and Vegas at 8 pm et on Sunday.

The 'under' has now cashed in four straight games involving the Golden Knights. That's notable as they've posted just one 'under' streak lasting longer than four games this season with that coming during a six-game streak back in March. The Avalanche, meanwhile, have posted just two 'under' streaks lasting more than two games dating back to February 25th and they've yet to see three consecutive games stay 'under' the total in these playoffs. Vegas home games have been considerably higher-scoring than its away affairs this season, averaging 6.5 total goals here at T-Mobile Arena. Take the over (8*).

My selection is on Colorado over Vegas at 8 pm et on Sunday.

The Avalanche have dropped back-to-back games to open this series setting up a virtual 'must-win' in Las Vegas in Game 3 on Sunday. I like Colorado's chances of bouncing back here. Note that the Avs have lost more than two games in a row just once dating all the way back to October 28th, that coming in the form of a three-game slide in mid-March. The Golden Knights have reeled off four straight victories entering Sunday's action. They own just one winning streak lasting more than four games this season (they won seven games in a row in January). While the situation is not favorable, there's no reason for the Avs to panic as they're 32-13 on the road this season, where they've outscored opponents by an average margin of 1.3 goals. Take Colorado (8*).

My selection is on San Antonio minus the points over Oklahoma City at 8:10 pm et on Sunday.

I think a lot of bettors got ahead of themselves backing the Spurs in Game 3 of this series on Friday - of course I say that with the benefit of hindsight. I was close to backing San Antonio but ultimately laid off hoping for this exact scenario to play out with the Thunder grabbing the 2-1 series lead heading into Game 4 on Sunday. It was an off shooting night for the Spurs - their second in a row, in fact. That will happen when you're facing an elite defensive team like the Thunder. I do expect San Antonio to make the necessary adjustments and even this series up at two games apiece on Sunday. Oklahoma City has delivered the cash in consecutive games and that's notable as it has strung together a three-game (or more) ATS winning streak just twice dating back to February 27th. San Antonio has suffered just one ATS skid lasting at least three games since January 2nd. The Thunder are suddenly dealing with multiple injuries after Jalen Williams missed Friday's game and Ajay Mitchell was forced to leave early. Both of their statuses are up in the air for Sunday. Regardless who plays and who doesn't, I like the Spurs in what amounts to a virtual 'must-win' situation at home. Take San Antonio (8*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Oklahoma City and San Antonio at 8:10 pm et on Sunday.

I couldn't click the 'under' fast enough in this Game 4 matchup between the Thunder and Spurs on Sunday. We saw another 'over' result in Game 3 - the third straight to open this series even if Game 1 was fraudulent in nature thanks to double-overtime. The pace didn't necessarily indicate such a high-scoring affair on Friday. Oklahoma City knocked down 39-of-81 field goal attempts while San Antonio countered by hitting just 34-of-80 from the field. It was ultimately a foul-fest from the jump with both teams taking 33 free throws. I don't expect Game 4 on Sunday to be called quite as tight but I certainly expect the defensive intensity to be there again as this is a pivotal affair with the Thunder either taking full control of the series or the Spurs evening things up at two games apiece. Both teams are on extended 'over' runs right now and I think this total has been adjusted too high. Take the under (9*).