Sean Murphy

Southland Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on New Orleans minus the points over Houston Christian at 4:30 pm et on Saturday.

We'll back New Orleans on Saturday as it looks to avenge an earlier 85-76 'upset' loss suffered at home against Houston Christian. That was a somewhat stunning result but it came relatively early in the season in the first week of December. We've seen these two teams go on divergent paths since with the Privateers owning the better overall record and having faced the more difficult schedule. New Orleans checks in off a dismal offensive showing last time out but it still managed to outlast Texas A&M-Corpus Christi in overtime. Houston Christian is one of the country's weakest offensive teams. It enters this contest having connected on 24 or fewer field goals in six straight games, eclipsing that mark just twice since December 15th. On the flip side, Houston Christian's opponents have been 'filling it up', making good on 26 or more field goals in 15 of its last 19 contests. Take New Orleans (10*).

My selection is on Oregon minus the points over Penn State at 3 pm et on Saturday.

Oregon has had four days to stew over its 10th straight loss and I look for it to finally snap its skid on get back on track against Penn State on Saturday. The Nittany Lions stunned Washington as double-digit underdogs on Thursday, ending their own two-game slide. I think the door is wide open for the Ducks to get loose in this one, however, noting that the NIttany Lions have allowed six of their last eight opponents to knock down 29 or more field goals. They earned a reprieve of sorts on Thursday as the Huskies turned in a dismal offensive showing, connecting on only 23-of-61 field goal attempts. Penn State continues to play matador-like defense, allowing three straight and six of its last eight opponents to hoist up 60+ field goal attempts. You can see the wheels turning for the Ducks offensively of late as they've knocked down 23, 24 and 25 field goals over their last three games, despite an absolutely brutal slate of opponents including Iowa, Purdue and Indiana with the latter two games coming on the road. On the flip side, Oregon has held eight of its last 12 foes to 27 or fewer made field goals. Penn State has been held to 25 or fewer made field goals in nine of its last 12 contests. Take Oregon (8*).

Sun Belt Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on James Madison plus the points over Appalachian State at 4 pm et on Saturday.

Appalachian State is clearly in uncharted territory right now as it has won a season-high seven straight games. The Mountaineers will try to beat James Madison for a second time this season after delivering an 80-65 victory at home back on January 15th. The visiting Dukes couldn't get anything going offensively in that contest but I look for a different story to unfold here. Appalachian State has certainly been tough defensively but James Madison can take some solace in the fact that it did generate 60 field goal attempts in the first meeting and the Mountaineers last two opponents have made some headway, knocking down 25 and 24 field goals. The Dukes can play some defense as well. They've allowed their last two foes to connect on 28 and 27 field goals but the latter affair went to overtime. Prior to that two-game stretch they had held their last four opponents to 19, 22, 21 and 23 made field goals. It's not as if Appalachian State has been rolling offensively. It has knocked down 23 or fewer field goals in five of its last six games. Look for James Madison to get its revenge here. Take James Madison (10*).

Southern Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on Western Carolina plus the points over Chattanooga at 4:30 pm et on Saturday.

I think the case can be made for the wrong team being favored in this matchup. Chattanooga defeated Western Carolina 90-82 on the road in the first meeting between these two teams this season. There's little separating the two teams in terms of overall record but Western Carolina has faced the more difficult schedule. The Catamounts snapped their three-game SU and ATS losing streak with a decisive 87-49 win at The Citadel on Wednesday. Chattanooga on the other hand has had a difficult time getting on track, going 1-6 SU and 3-4 ATS over its last seven games since that win at Western Carolina on January 17th (that marked its third straight victory at the time and was part of a four-game ATS winning streak). I like the consistency Western Carolina has showed offensively, connecting on 25 or more field goals in 12 straight games entering Saturday's action. Chattanooga has knocked down more than 25 field goals just once in its last seven games and that came in an 'upset' loss at home against The Citadel. On the flip side, the Mocs are coming off a stellar defensive effort against East Tennessee State last time out but they still lost that game by double-digits. They've had a tough time stringing together consecutive strong defensive showings. After holding an opponent to 21 or fewer made field goals they've allowed 25, 26, 30, 30 and 29 in their last five tries in that situation. Take Western Carolina (10*).

Saturday CBB Free play. My selection is on Vanderbilt minus the points over Texas A&M at 1 pm et on Saturday.

The Vanderbilt doubters are out in full force again on Saturday, pushing this line down from its opener. We'll step in and back the Commodores as they host the Aggies in afternoon action. Texas A&M can't find its footing right now, having lost three straight games. The Aggies opposition has been 'pouring it in' as they've allowed more than 30 made field goals in four straight games. Vandy figures to take advantage here. The Commodores have been far tighter defensively, holding four of their last five foes to 24 or fewer made field goals. I look for Vandy to tighten the screws in this one and build off its bounce-back win at Auburn earlier this week. Take Vanderbilt.

My selection is on Florida minus the points over Kentucky at 3 pm et on Saturday. 

I don't think anyone is stopping Florida right now as the Gators have taken it out on their opposition since an 'upset' loss against Auburn back on January 24th. Florida not only owns the better overall record in this matchup this season but has also faced the slightly more difficult schedule by most metrics. The Gators enter this game on an incredible run offensively. They've connected on more than 30 field goals in four straight and 11 of their last 14 contests. Despite affording their opposition a ton of scoring opportunities, they've still held six straight and eight of their last nine opponents to 27 or fewer made field goals. Kentucky enters this game playing well also. It has knocked down 30, 30 and 28 field goals over its last three games. Keep in mind, prior to that it had been held to fewer than 20 made field goals in back-to-back games. All told, the Wildcats have connected on 30 or more field goals just twice in their last eight games. They've had a week to pat themselves on the back following their win over Tennessee (and successful two-game homestand sweep). Take Florida (8*).

My selection is on Samford plus the points over East Tennessee State at 12 noon et on Saturday.

These two teams met earlier this season with East Tennessee State eking out a one-point road victory. Both teams enter this contest red hot but I simply feel the Buccaneers are laying too many points. While the Bulldogs own the worse overall record in this matchup this season, they have faced the tougher schedule by most metrics. Samford has been incredibly consistent offensively in recent weeks and months, making good on 24 or more field goals in five straight and 15 of its last 16 games. On the flip side, the Bulldogs are coming off a shaky defensive effort against Wofford but that had a lot to do with game script as they ultimately won by 17 points. Also of note, they've had a tendency to bounce back from poor defensive performances. All told, they've held four of their last six opponents to 26 or fewer made field goals. East Tennessee State has won four straight games but we have seen it sag a bit defensively, with its last five opponents knocking down 29, 26, 29, 24 and 22 field goals (note that one game saw overtime against Furman over that stretch). In the first meeting between these two teams, Samford afforded itself six more field goal attempts but ETSU effectively shot the lights out in a narrow one-point win. Take Samford (8*).

My selection is on Long Beach State plus the points over Cal-Davis at 5 pm et on Saturday.

I don't think there's a lot separating these two teams despite what their overall records say. Long Beach State has the worse overall record but has faced the tougher schedule by most metrics. Here, the 49ers will be looking to end their long six-game losing streak. Meanwhile, Cal-Davis had its four-game winning streak snapped in blowout fashion at UC-San Diego on Thursday. The Aggies have now connected on 26 or fewer field goals in 10 straight games and it's not as if they play at an incredibly slow pace. On the flip side, they've yielded 26 or more made field goals in six of their last eight contests. Long Beach State, while struggling to find the win column lately, has knocked down 25 or more field goals in three straight and four of its last five games. The 49ers last game was an outlier of sorts as they allowed 30 made field goals - the only the second time since December 30th they allowed an opponent to connect on more than 27. Take Long Beach State (8*).

My selection is on Hofstra plus the points over UNC-Wilmington at 4 pm et on Saturday.

We missed fading UNC-Wilmington on Thursday as Elon trailed virtually the whole game and a mild second half rally wasn't enough for the cover. I won't hesitate to go back to the well fading the Seahawks on Saturday, however. Hofstra has reeled off four straight wins including an 'upset' victory at College of Charleston on Thursday. With only a day between games, there hasn't been a lot of time for it to 'pat itself on the back' too much for that recent stretch. I look for the Pride to continue to play well here, noting that they've held four straight opponents to 23 or fewer made field goals and 19 of their last 23 foes to 25 or fewer. UNC-Wilmington has limited its last two opponents to exactly 20 made field goals. Prior to that it has yielded 27 or more in seven straight contests, however. Also of note, there's a fairly firm ceiling on the Seahawks offense as they've connected on fewer than 30 field goals in 12 straight and 16 of their last 17 games with the lone outlier coming against little known Columbia College (SC). Take Hofstra (8*).