Sean Murphy

My selection is on Denver minus the points over Arizona at 9:30 pm et on Saturday.

UPDATE: As of Saturday morning, it appears that both teams are content to leave their starters off the field after a spirited week of join practices. We'll stick with our play on Denver. 

The Broncos under head coach Sean Payton might just be a preseason wagon at this point - similar to what we saw from the Ravens for a number of years. Going back to last year, the Broncos are now 4-0 in the preseason, scoring a whopping 129 points and outscoring opponents by a ridiculous 76 points over that stretch including a 30-9 rout of the 49ers in Santa Clara last Saturday. I think this number is a little short against a Cardinals team that will give their starters some playing time but checks in off a 20-17 win over the Chiefs last week in another game where their starters saw the field fairly extensively. Arizona isn't going to roll over in this spot as it does appear that it puts some stock in preseason results. However, last week's win was its first in four preseason tries going back to last year. I look for the Broncos offense to prove to be too much on Saturday. Take Denver (8*).

My selection is on Indianapolis minus the points over Green Bay at 1 pm et on Saturday.

The Colts turned in a poor performance marked by an Anthony Richardson injury last week in Baltimore. In need of a bounce back and some clarity on offense I think we'll see Indianapolis put forth a much better showing as it returns home to host Green Bay on Saturday. The Packers lost by 20 points at home against the Jets last weekend. Green Bay isn't going to put much stock in the preseason under head coach Matt LaFleur. I don't think anything changes this week. It's more likely we'll see the Packers give their starters some playing time and look for a more complete performance next weekend as they wrap up the preseason with a home game against the 1-0-1 Seahawks. Take Indianapolis (8*).

My selection is on Los Angeles over the Athletics at 10:05 pm et on Saturday.

We won with the Athletics in last night's series-opener in Sacramento but I won't hesitate to go the other way and back the Angels in Saturday's rematch. Los Angeles will send Tyler Anderson to the hill. While he has certainly struggled at times this season, it's not as if he's been getting blown up with consistency. In fact, Anderson has allowed four earned runs or less in nine straight outings. Rookie Luis Morales will counter for the A's. He'll be making only his third big league appearance. Morales has struggled with command issues in his first couple of outings and the Angels have a good enough lineup to make him work on Saturday as well. Look for Los Angeles to rebound off last night's blowout loss. Take Los Angeles (8*).

My selection is on Montreal plus the points over B.C. at 7 pm et on Saturday. 

The Alouettes enter this game off back-to-back losses both SU and ATS and have now dropped the cash in five of their last six games overall. I still don't feel this line makes a lot of sense, noting that Montreal took B.C. down to the wire in a narrow 21-20 home loss in the first meeting in July. B.C. can breathe a sigh of relief after snapping its two-game slide with a 41-38 'upset' win in Hamilton last week. The Lions are still just 1-2 ATS over their last three games and 3-5 ATS over their last eight contests. The Als have played some of their best football on the road this season where they've gone 3-1 SU and ATS. The lone loss came in a clear letdown spot in Hamilton after Montreal had gotten off to a perfect 3-0 start to the season. Take Montreal (8*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Hamilton and Saskatchewan at 3 pm et on Saturday.

The Tiger-Cats are coming off a wild 41-38 loss at home against the Lions to snap their six-game winning streak. I think they're a far better defensive team than they've shown lately, allowing 33 points or more in two of their last three contests. Note that both of those performances came against B.C. and they turned the football over a combined five times. Turnovers aren't really something that's predictable although it is worth noting that the Roughriders have forced two or less in six of their eight games this season and one or less in five of those contests. Saskatchewan ranks as one of the league's best defensive teams having allowed 24 points or less in four of is last five games. This will be the second matchup between these two teams this season after the Riders travelled to Hamilton and delivered a 28-23 win in mid-June. Take the under (8*).

Saturday MLB Free play. My selection is on Cleveland over Atlanta at 7:10 pm et on Saturday.

A lot of respect is being given to the disappointing Braves with this price and perhaps it's deserved as they've reeled off three straight wins. I look for the Guardians to stop the Braves streak on Saturday, however. Joey Wentz will take the ball for Atlanta. I don't think he's a legitimate big league starter at this stage of his career and his numbers this season bear that out. He's bounced around three different teams this season alone and has yielded north of four walks and less than eight strikeouts per nine innings. He did hold up well in a 7-1 Braves win over the Marlins last time out but prior to that the Braves had lost each of his last four starts. Slade Cecconi starts for Cleveland. He was shaky in his most recent outing, continuing what has been a roller-coaster season. The good news is, the Guardians haven't lost back-to-back Cecconi starts since June 28th and July 4th and he has given up three earned runs or less in 10 of his last 12 starts. Look for the Guardians to bounce back on Saturday. Take Cleveland.

A.L. Central Game of the Year. My selection is on Minnesota over Detroit at 7:15 pm et on Saturday.

The Tigers have taken the first two games in this series including a 7-0 blowout victory last night. I look for the Twins to answer back on Saturday as they send Zebby Matthews to the mound against Casey Mize. Detroit has actually won each of Mize's last three starts but it hasn't been in direct correlation with his strong pitching. Mize allowed six earned runs in 12 2/3 innings of work over that stretch. In fact, he's been tagged for four home runs in his last two trips to the hill. Also note that the Tigers are just 2-3 in his last five road outings and he turned in a shaky performance right here in Minnesota in a 5-1 loss earlier this season. Matthews had a rocky rookie campaign last year but has been trending up here in 2025. He owns a 3.34 FIP and 1.36 WHIP in nine starts. While he has given up four earned runs in just 10 2/3 innings over his last two outings, it's worth noting that he guided the Twins to a 6-3 road win over the same Tigers in one of those contests (allowing one earned run over five innings). The Twins have won two of Matthews' three home starts this season. They've also yet to lose consecutive Matthews' outings going 5-4 overall. Both bullpens have been solid lately, and at this price, I'm confident backing the home side in a bounce-back spot. Take Minnesota (10*).