Jim Feist

The Under appeals when the Mets and Phillies match up left-handed starters who can contain damage while pumping strikeouts. Philadelphia’s starter Jesus Luzardo is 8-4 with a 3.51 ERA and 136 strikeouts over 110 innings. Luzardo’ stat line gets even better when you realize his 2.84 FIP is lower than his ERA.

Luzardo dominated the Reds for seven scoreless innings prior to the All-Star break, striking out 11 along the way. Luzardo has surrendered just nine home runs this season, which will be key at Citizens Bank Park. Luzardo can pound the strike zone when he gets ahead in the count to quiet down New York’ two biggest left-handed bats, along with preventing the Mets from stringing together big innings.

Sean Manaea will take the mound for New York with a 4.56 ERA that seems worse than he actually performed. Manaea’s 4.14 FIP would indicate he’s actually pitched better than his ERA would indicate. Manaea has struck out 74 batters in 75 innings, while also limiting opponents to just 10 home runs. The Phillies lineup is loaded with left-handed bats like Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper, so Manaea’ southpaw stuff should give New York an edge against Philly’ order at critical points in the game. 

Offense may not be too big of a factor for either team. The Mets are just 8-19 against left-handed starters, so Luzardo will likely have another tough matchup against a Mets lineup that loves to mash Juan Soto and wait for home runs. Soto may not even play at full strength as he exited Thursday’ game with calf soreness.

Mets reliever Luke Weaver has yet to allow an earned run since April 30. In that stretch he has struck out 35 hitters over 27 innings. Should Manaea go five innings keeping the game close, New York’ bullpen has the arms to prevent Phillies hitters from spinning around on too many arms deep in the game.

Luzardo has been pitching like an All-Star and Mets have struggled against lefties all year. Add in Manaea’ platoon advantage against multiple Phillies power bats and I like this game to stay Under the Total. 

Jim's Play: 903. Mets / Phillies UNDER 

The Minnesota Twins and Chicago Cubs can both hit over Saturday’s game total with some regularity. That’s likely for a few reasons, as the starting pitching matchup seems stronger than the pitchers’ records indicate and warm afternoon temperatures at Wrigley Field should allow the ball to carry.

Chicago will turn to Matthew Boyd to start Saturday’ game. Boyd has an ERA just above 5.00 entering the matchup at 5.05. Boyd is a fly ball pitcher who can miss bats, but he hasn’t gone inning after inning without giving up hard contact or falling victim to an inning-sinker. Minnesota also showed some pop in Friday’s series opener thanks to Ryan Jeffers’ three-run homer, leading the team to a 5-2 win. The Twins won three games in a row and should be playing with some momentum after clubbing five runs off Chicago’ pitching staff.

Taj Bradley will go for Minnesota on Saturday. Bradley has compiled a shiny 9-3 record with a 3.59 ERA on the season. The ERA is solid, but Bradley’s 3.93 FIP suggests he has gotten some good luck along the way. Bradley is dangerous when he has his command and can overpower hitters, but he struggles when he falls behind and has to throw strikes to hitters. The Cubs have enough power to score throughout the lineup and that’s a problem against Bradley if Chicago draws early counts.

Chicago also matches up nicely against a Twins bullpen that has been compromised by several major transactions. Minnesota’s bullpen was gutted during last season’s fire sale and the Twins don’t have many reliable late-inning options behind their starters. Bradley could give Minnesota manager staff five or six innings of solid work, but the Cubs will have chances to tack on runs against the middle relievers.

Chicago might also come out with more of a sense of urgency after losing Friday’s opener. The Cubs stranded runners throughout the game, managing just two runs total despite having a man on late in multiple innings. Chicago also loaded the bases with one out in the ninth inning and had the tying run on deck. That should spur some aggression against Bradley and Minnesota has enough power to capitalize on Boyd missing his spots. Both offenses have the ability to reach four runs, which will likely be necessary with how high the total is set.

Jim's Play: 917. Twins/Cubs OVER

The WNBA matchup featuring the league’s two highest-scoring offenses has strong potential to surpass Saturday’s total. Indiana averages 93.2 points per game, which is tops in the league, and New York checks in at 85.6 points per game. The Liberty and Fever combined to score 178.8 points per game this season, which is already more than four points above the betting line.

Indiana has primary shootout responsibility. The Fever own the league’s best offensive rating and rank third in terms of pace. Fresh off her record-setting 45-point, 10-assist performance in Indiana’s 110-107 win against Seattle, Caitlin Clark will look to push the pace and can consistently create for herself and others early in the shot clock with driving layups and three-pointers. Clark’s speed and playmaking skills will give any Fever matchup a high offensive ceiling.

Indiana’s defense also sets up the Over in this spot. The Fever allow opponents to score 89 points per game and rank in the bottom half of the league defensively. The numbers tilt heavily in New York’s favor offensively because of players like Breanna Stewart, Sabrina Ionescu and Jonquel Jones. Stewart and Jones will look to attack the paint early, whereas Ionescu can punish Indiana’s defense if they collapse around the rim.

Lastly, the Liberty present defensive concerns as well. New York has been without substantial wing depth due to injuries and changes to the rotation have coincided with opponents shooting a higher percentage from three-point range. While tough travel situations often lead to slow starts, poor defense travels well. New York has also struggled to assemble a consistent lineup recently, winning just two of its last nine games. This makes defensive communication paramount against Clark and an Indiana offense that loves to attack in transition and create defensive rotations.

Both offenses rank among the WNBA leaders in points per game. The over/under projects comfortably into the 170s, and there are legitimate paths to see this game reach 180 or more on Saturday. .

Jim's Play: 635. NY Liberty / Ind Fever OVER 

France has several advantages over England heading into Saturday’s world Cup third-place game: fresher legs, a better counterattack and a significant motivational factor with Didier Deschamps playing his final match as manager.

France enjoyed more rest between the semifinals and third place. Les Bleus played its first match on Tuesday, while England took the field Wednesday and suffered a 2-1 loss to Argentina despite leading late. England now must recover physically and mentally with less downtime before the third-place game. Midfielder Declan Rice has reportedly battled fatigue, sickness and multiple injuries in the run-in to this match, while Reece James is questionable and Jordan Henderson will not play. France has lost William Saliba to injury as well, but boasts a deeper pool of athletic defenders and forwards that should be able to absorb rotation better.

Kylian Mbappe gives France the biggest edge on an individual basis. Mbappe is fully healthy and leads the Golden Boot race with eight goals, tied with Lionel Messi. Goals scored in the third-place game count toward the Golden Boot, so France’ captain has the incentive of scoring what would be the game-winning goal and securing the award. England can’t play overly aggressive at the back because Mbappe will expose any space behind the defense, and France has options to rotate onto the wings as well with Ousmane Dembele, Michael Olise and Desire Doue.

Emotionally, France wants to win for Deschamps. The coach confirmed on Thursday that this will be his last match in charge, which will be his second appearance on the world Cup podium after lifting the trophy in Russia four years ago. Several French players have said they hope to send their coach out with a win. Of course, England has everything to play for as well, but Laura Ianney’s side is coming off a heartbreaker.

With more speed, depth and days of rest working in their favor, France looks like the better team even in this game for third place.

Jim's Play: Take: 225624. France

A busy France-England third-place game could hit the scoreboard often enough to push the Over, especially Over 3 goals. The stage sets up for a match much more wide open than your typical World Cup elimination game. Since neither team advances to the final, both managers can be aggressive with rotations and allow their attackers freedom. Playing for third place has historically led to run-and-gun soccer, and you’ll find multiple current previews predicting another tournament-high scoring affair.

France boasts plenty of attacking firepower on its own. Kylian Mbappe continues to hunt for World Cup scoring title and thus should have extra incentive to attack rather than soak up pressure. France can also deploy speedsters like Ousmane Dembele, Desire Doue and Michael Olise around him to create 1-v-1 advantages throughout the frontline. England won’t be able to track every attacking option if it rotates its backline or pushes fullbacks upfield.

England will likely have scoring chances too. The Three Lions put up three goals against Mexico and two goals against Norway during the knockout stages while playing against two decent defenses. England possesses their own attacking stars in Harry Kane, Jude Bellingham and several dynamic players on the wings who can punish French defenses. Les Bleus may even have to abandon their preferred defensive lineup if both teams rotate heavily. England proved against Mexico how quickly a game can swing open once the first goal kicks off.

England hasn’t been shut down entirely during this tournament. The team conceded at least once in each knockout match while surrendering five goals combined between Mexico, Norway and Argentina. France fared better defensively heading into the semifinals, but Spain beat them twice. France may roll out a shaky defensive unit if it elects to rotate heavily. Unfamiliar defenders struggling to cover fast-paced attackers has historically led to breakdowns and high quality chances.

Goal flow will likely be high too. Whoever scores first would be forced to throw numbers forward in order to chase the game, as sitting on a 1-0 or 2-1 lead offers little consolation for finishing third. England finally got rolling offensively in the second half of its Round of 16 match before coasting to a 3-2 win. France has scored first in three of its five matches this tournament, meaning Mbappe would have room on the counter if England strikes early. Frequent substitutions on both sides could open up more space if attacking players enter the game fresh while the backline loses steam. Goal flow and lack of rotations have been two of the main reasons I like this total over. 

 France and England both have strong reasons to finish this World Cup on the right note. Both squads possess multiple elite attackers capable of breaking the game open at any moment. As long as neither manager feels the need to bunker down for the entire match, this game has a formulaic path to at least four goals.

Jim's Play: 225623. England/France OVER