Alex Smart

As the NBA slate thins out on this mid-December Wednesday, all eyes turn to the United Center where the struggling Chicago Bulls (10-15) host the Cleveland Cavaliers (15-12) in a Central Division clash While Cleveland enters as 5.5-point road favorites with a moneyline around -210, the real intrigue lies in the spread, where sharp bettors are finding edge in backing the Bulls +5.5 at -115 odds. This isn't just about rooting for the underdog, it's rooted in key trends, matchup angles, and advanced metrics that suggest Chicago can keep this game far closer than the line implies, potentially delivering a profitable cover even in defeat.

Digging into the trends, Chicago's overall season has been a rollercoaster, marked by inconsistency and a recent four-game home losing streak, but their against-the-spread (ATS) performance tells a more nuanced story. The Bulls are 5-6-1 ATS at home, a respectable mark that improves when they're slotted as underdogs, covering in similar spots where they've leveraged their perimeter scoring to stay competitive. On the flip side, Cleveland, despite their solid record, has been a bettor's nightmare this year, posting a league-worst 8-19 ATS overall and just 4-7 on the road. The Cavs have won five straight head-to-head meetings against Chicago, including a 128-122 victory back on November 8, but the Bulls covered as 8.5-point underdogs in that one, highlighting a pattern where Cleveland dominates the win column but struggles to blow out opponents—especially away from home, where they've failed to cover in several recent outings against sub-.500 teams.

Injuries and matchup angles further tilt the scales toward a Bulls cover. Cleveland is dealing with significant absences, including Evan Mobley (out), Max Strus, Sam Merrill, and Larry Nance Jr., which weakens their frontcourt depth and perimeter shooting, key elements in containing Chicago's guards. Without Mobley, the Cavs' defense becomes vulnerable inside, ranking middling in rebounding percentage and allowing opponents to exploit mismatches. Chicago, meanwhile, benefits from the return of players like Coby White, who's averaging 21.7 points since coming back from injury, and Josh Giddey, who's been a triple-double threat with elevated usage in underdog scenarios. The Bulls rank 15th in offensive efficiency, playing at a fast pace that can pull Cleveland's bigs like Jarrett Allen into space, creating opportunities for drives and kickouts.

From a broader angle, situational factors add layers to this pick. The Cavs are coming off an embarrassing overtime loss to the Charlotte Hornets at home, a spot where road favorites often underperform due to fatigue or overcorrection. Chicago, riding an eight-of-10 losing skid, fits the profile of a desperate home team that plays up in division games, especially with a total set at 243.5 hinting at a high-scoring affair where the Bulls' 117.2 points per game average could keep them in striking distance. Sharp voices in the betting community, including picks from my own models, echo this sentiment,. While public money might flock to Cleveland's star power like Donovan Mitchell (averaging 30.7 points), the data screams trap,Cleveland has failed to cover in six straight games against teams with losing records, and Chicago's ability to force turnovers (top-30 ranking) could disrupt the Cavs' rhythm.

Bulls +5.5 is a bet that capitalizes on Cleveland's road vulnerabilities, Chicago's home resilience, and the market's overestimation of the Cavs' dominance. In a night with just two games, this stands as the strongest edge; always monitor last-minute injury updates and line movement before locking in.

As the college basketball season heats up in the Big Ten, Wednesday's matchup between the Arizona State Sun Devils and UCLA Bruins stands out as a prime betting opportunity. This is, a line that reflects their historical edge in this rivalry and current form. UCLA has long dominated Arizona State, holding a commanding 76-24 all-time series lead, including victories in five straight meetings and eight of the last nine, many by double digits. This trend underscores a clear angle: the Bruins thrive against the Sun Devils, particularly at home, where they've leveraged superior athleticism and defensive intensity to pull away late in games.

Digging into the 2025 season stats, UCLA sits at 7-3, boasting a stingy defense that allows just 66.7 points per game while scoring 76.7 themselves. Their success hinges on efficient offense led by forward Tyler Bilodeau, who's averaging 16.6 points on an impressive 52.3% field goal shooting, along with 4.6 rebounds per contest. Bilodeau's inside-out game exploits mismatches, and against an Arizona State squad that's surrendered 73.6 points per game, he could feast in the paint. On the flip side, the Sun Devils (9-2) have been hot overall, riding a 6-1 against-the-spread (ATS) streak in their last seven outings, but their road performance tells a different story. ASU's 80.7 points per game come mostly from home cooking, and they've struggled to maintain pace away from Tempe, especially against defenses like UCLA's that rank in the middle tier but force tough shots (opponents shoot just 48% overall against the Bruins).

A key matchup angle revolves around perimeter play and tempo. Arizona State shoots a solid 39.2% from beyond the arc, but UCLA ranks 320th nationally in opponent three-point attempt rate, often daring teams to launch from deep, which could backfire if ASU's shooters go cold on the road. The projected total sits around 146.5, aligning with both teams' mid-tempo styles, but the real value lies in the spread. I ve projected a UCLA 82-72 type victory, giving the Bruins a comfortable cover as they capitalize on home-court advantage and Arizona State's occasional defensive lapses.

Ultimately, the betting pick here is UCLA -8.5- to 9. The Bruins' rivalry dominance, home strength, and Bilodeau's scoring prowess outweigh Arizona State's recent ATS hot streak, especially given the Sun Devils' road vulnerabilities..

The 68 Ventures Bowl in Mobile, Alabama, on December 17, 2025, brings an intriguing clash between the Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns (7-5) and the Delaware Fightin' Blue Hens (9-4), marking Delaware's first bowl appearance in their inaugural FBS season. With Louisiana favored by 3 points and the total set at 62.5, this game offers underdog value in a near coin-flip scenario. Bettors should consider Delaware's passing efficiency and Louisiana's defensive vulnerabilities as key angles, especially given the lack of major opt-outs and standard preparation time for both squads.

Examining the trends, Louisiana has been an over machine, cashing the over in eight of 12 games this season, including all of their last five, which aligns with their team total over hitting in nine of the past 10 for +7.85 units and 67% ROI. However, their ATS record is a middling 6-6 overall, dropping to 1-3 as favorites, suggesting they struggle to cover when expected to dominate. Delaware, transitioning from FCS, posted a 4-7-1 ATS mark but went 3-2-1 as underdogs, showing resilience in tough spots. The Blue Hens also trended over in six of 12 games, but their late-season form was shaky at 2-6 ATS over the final eight contests. Still, against top-tier opponents, Delaware's defense held its own in limiting ground explosives, a critical factor against Louisiana's committee rushing attack led by Bill Davis.

Key angles favor Delaware's aerial assault, spearheaded by quarterback Nick Minicucci, who completed over 60% of his passes for more than 1,400 yards. This exploits Louisiana's glaring weakness: a secondary ranked 119th in defensive success rate and 99th against the pass, allowing opponents to stay on schedule through the air. Louisiana's offense, while surging late with four straight wins (albeit by narrow margins averaging just over four points), relies on chunk plays that Delaware's stout front can neutralize, ranking near the bottom nationally in 20-plus-yard plays allowed on the ground. Bowl experience tips slightly to Louisiana, but Delaware's methodical intermediate passing game, featuring top target Sean Wilson, provides a clearer path to an upset. Line movement has been telling, with the spread tightening from Louisiana -5.5 to -2.5, indicating sharp money on the underdog, and the total climbing from 58 to 62.5 amid public action on overs.

Ultimately, in a matchup where Delaware's passing reliability meets Louisiana's leaky defense, grabbing the points with the Blue Hens makes sense. Bet Delaware +3 at -110 for value in what projects as a competitive late FG l thriller,.

the Old Dominion Monarchs and South Florida Bulls presents a classic postseason scenario rife with uncertainties. Both teams finished the regular season at 9-3, showcasing solid defenses that could dictate a low-scoring affair. With kickoff set for Wednesday, December 17, at Camping World Stadium, the total is hovering around 52.5 points, a number that feels inflated given the disruptions on both sides. Bettors looking for value should lean heavily on historical trends and situational angles that point toward a grind-it-out game rather than a shootout.

Digging into the trends, Old Dominion has been a bettor's dream for unders lately, cashing the under in their last five games with an impressive +5.00 units and 91% ROI. This isn't surprising considering their defense ranked among the top 20 nationally in EPA per play allowed and surrendered just 19.5 points per game overall. On the flip side, South Florida's defense isn't far behind, allowing 23 points per contest and holding opponents under 24 in three of their final four outings. While the Bulls boasted a top-10 offense in yards per play (7.19) during the year, that unit is now severely compromised. Key opt-outs, including starting quarterback Byrum Brown who entered the transfer portal, force journeyman Gaston Moore into the spotlight, a move that often leads to conservative play-calling and fewer explosive plays. Old Dominion faces similar issues with quarterback Colton Joseph opting out, handing the reins to freshman Quinn Henicle, whose inexperience could exacerbate a run-heavy approach against a Bulls defense that's top-15 in passing success rate allowed.

From an angles perspective, coaching instability adds another layer of caution for high-scoring expectations. South Florida is operating under interim head coach Kevin Patrick after Alex Golesh and offensive coordinator Joel Gordon departed for Auburn, disrupting the continuity that fueled their elite offense (top-10 in EPA per play and 73.9% red-zone touchdown rate). Old Dominion, by contrast, maintains an intact staff under Ricky Rahne, which could help their stout defense (4.79 yards per play allowed, top-20 explosiveness prevention) exploit the Bulls' makeshift setup. Bowl games with quarterback absences and staff changes historically trend toward unders, as teams prioritize ball control and field goals over risky downfield shots. Moreover, Old Dominion's over/under record sits at 4-8 for the season, while South Florida's 7-5 over mark was inflated by games against weaker defenses, something ODU doesn't provide. The neutral-site venue in Florida might favor USF slightly as a pseudo-home game, where they've won their last 11 as favorites, but with both offenses projected to score under 25 points each, the total feels primed to stay low.

In summary, this Cure Bowl screams defensive battle, with trends like Old Dominion's under streak and angles such as dual QB opt-outs making a compelling case for limited scoring. Shop around for the best line, but locking in the under 52.5 at -110 offers strong value in what could be a 24-20 type slog.