Frank Sawyer

FRANK’S CUTTING ROOM FLOOR FOR MONDAY, 10/27:

My “Cutting Room Floor” plays are the situations I considered the closest to being worthy of investment but did not make the “final cut” for my official plays today for subscribers. The last play I cut for Monday is with the Los Angeles Dodgers with the money-line versus the Toronto Blue Jays listing both starting pitchers Tyler Glasnow and Max Scherzer. Los Angeles (103-71) evened this series at 1-1 with their 5-1 win on the road against the Blue Jays on Saturday. The Dodgers return home where they have won 23 of their last 34 home games with the Total set in the 8-8.5 range. They have also won 40 of their last 58 home games following a victory. Toronto (102-73) had won three games in a row before their loss in Game Two of the World Series. The Blue Jays face Tyler Glasnow who posted a 3.19 ERA in 18 starts in the regular season — and they have lost 5 of their last 6 road games against National League teams using a starting pitcher with an ERA of 3.20 or lower. Toronto counters with Max Scherzer — but his teams have lost 5 of their last 7 games on the road when he is on the mound with the Total set in the 8-8.5 range. Take the Los Angeles Dodgers with the money-line listing both starting pitchers. Best of luck — Frank.

Frank Sawyer’s Hollywood Sports is on a 10 of 13 (77%) MLB run with featured 25*/20*/10* plays after DELIVERING their 25* MLB Game of the Year with the LA Dodgers on Saturday to continue their 16 of 23 (70%) MLB featured plays streak! Now Frank furthers his 7 of 9 (78%) MLB TOTALS TEAR with featured plays and his 10 of 13 (77%) MLB Game of the Year mark with his 25* Major League Baseball Total of the Year for the 2025 season for tonight’s Toronto-LA Dodgers winner on Fox-TV at 8:00 PM ET! 

Frank, featured here at Sportscapping.com since 2016, is on a 29 of 44 (66%) NFL sides run with featured plays after his 2-0 NFL sides mark yesterday — headlined by DELIVERING their 25* NFC South Game of the Month on Tampa Bay before CA$HING Green Bay tickets last night! Frank’s WINNING 2-1 Sunday continued his 46 of 73 (63%) All-Sports run with featured plays — and now he furthers his 29 of 46 (63%) Game of the Year/Month mark in All-Sports with his 25* NFL Monday Night Football Game of the Month for tonight’s Washington-Kansas City ATS winner on ABC-TV/ESPN at 8:15 PM ET! DO NOT MISS OUT!

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Washington Commanders (283) and the Kansas City Chiefs (284). THE SITUATION: Washington (3-4) has lost three of their last four games after their 44-22 loss at Dallas as a 1.5-point underdog last Sunday. Kansas City (4-3) has won four of their last five games after their 31-0 victory against Las Vegas as a 13.5-point favorite on Sunday. 

REASONS TO UNDER THE TOTAL: The Chiefs’ defense flexed their muscles last week by limiting the Raiders offense to just 95 yards, three first downs, and a mere 29 plays (not a misprint). Kansas City has then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up win against a fellow AFC West rival — and they have played 10 of their last 16 home games Under the Total after a straight-up win. The Chiefs have covered the point spread in their last two games — and they have played 27 of their last 33 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in two of their last three games. They stay at home where they have played 16 of their last 23 games Under the Total — and they have played 28 of their last 37 home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record. Additionally, they have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total from Weeks Five through Nine — and they have played 5 straight Unders at home in October. The Chiefs are finally at full strength in their wide receiver room since Rashee Rice returned from suspension — but their offensive line is missing two key members. Star right guard Trey Smith is doubtful with a lower back injury. Rookie left tackle Josh Simmons is out due to personal issues. He has been everything the team hoped he would be when they drafted him with the last pick in the first round. Granted, the team feels good about free agent signee Jaylon Moore at left tackle — but he is a downgrade from Simmons. The loss of Smith is tough — and issues on the offensive line have been the other area that has held this offense back the last few seasons. Washington suffered a -2 net turnover margin against the Cowboys last week — and head coach Dan Quinn’s teams have played 11 of their 18 games Under the Total after a game where they endured a -2 or worse net turnover margin. The Commanders have not covered the point spread in their last two games — and Quinn’s teams in his head coaching career, going back to his time with Atlanta, have played 18 of their 29 games Under the Total after failing to cover the point spread in two straight contests. Additionally, Quinn’s teams have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a loss to a divisional rival on the road. His teams have played 5 of their 8 appearances on Monday Night Football Under the Total. With quarterback Jayden Daniels out with a hamstring injury, it will be the veteran Marcus Mariota getting the start under tonight. Washington is averaging only 313.5 total Yards-Per-Game on the road, which is -31.5 net YPG below their overall season average. 

FINAL TAKE: The Chiefs have played 30 of their last 41 home games Under the Total when laying 7.5 to 14 points — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games at home as a double-digit favorite. 10* NFL Monday Night O/U Discounted Deal with the Under the Total in the game between the Washington Commanders (283) and the Kansas City Chiefs (284). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Washington Commanders (283) plus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (284). THE SITUATION: Washington (3-4) has lost three of their last four games after their 44-22 loss at Dallas as a 1.5-point underdog last Sunday. Kansas City (4-3) has won four of their last five games after their 31-0 victory against Las Vegas as a 13.5-point favorite on Sunday. 

REASONS TO TAKE THE COMMANDERS PLUS THE POINTS: It’s time for my periodic reminder that we bet numbers, rather than teams. Despite their 0-2 start, I never lost faith that the Chiefs would remain a serious contender to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl. I have argued for years that if they can simply get most of the wide receivers they have assembled healthy and on the field together, their offense would explode. Sure enough, after not reaching the 30-point plateau in the regular season last year, they have scored 30 or more points in three of their last four games. We were on Kansas City against Detroit two weeks before taking the Under with their great defense against the Raiders last week. But asking them to cover a double-digit point spread against a solid NFL team is too much to expect. When Patrick Mahomes is coming off a win by 21 or more points and now is healthy and starting in a game laying 3.5 or more points, the Chiefs are just 2-6-1 ATS. They have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a victory by 14 or more points. Kansas City has won 21 of their last 32 games after a game where they scored 30 or more points, but they have failed to cover the point spread in 23 of those 30 games, including seven of those last eight occasions. Additionally, they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after playing the Raiders in their last contest — and none of their victories were by more than one scoring possession under those circumstances. The Chiefs are finally at full strength in their wide receiver room since Rashee Rice returned from suspension — but their offensive line is missing two key members. Star right guard Trey Smith is doubtful with a lower back injury. Rookie left tackle Josh Simmons is out due to personal issues. He has been everything the team hoped he would be when they drafted him with the last pick in the first round. Granted, the team feels good about free agent signee Jaylon Moore at left tackle — but he is a downgrade from Simmons. The loss of Smith is tough — and issues on the offensive line have been the other area that has held this offense back the last few seasons. Mahomes has a 35-2 straight-up record when the Chiefs are laying 7.5 or more points — but they are just 13-23-1 ATS in those 37 games. Kansas City has also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when playing on Monday Night Football. Washington has covered the point spread in 7 of their 10 games after a point spread loss since Dan Quinn took over as their head coach. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after allowing 30 or more points in their last game. The Commanders will be without second-year quarterback Jayden Daniels tonight due to a hamstring injury — but wide receivers Deebo Samuel and Terry McLaurin are expected to play. Having both receivers healthy will help veteran Marcus Mariota, who is one of the top backup quarterbacks in the league. He has thrown 100 touchdown passes to just 57 interceptions in his 11 seasons in his NFL career — and he remains pretty mobile. Washington has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games on the road after playing their previous game on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road against teams with a losing record. Furthermore, the Commanders have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games on the road against AFC opponents. In Quinn’s head coaching career going back to his first stint with Atlanta, his teams have covered 4 of the 6 games played on the road when they were getting 7.5 to 14 points. 

FINAL TAKE: Teams like Kansas City, who are coming off a shutout win at home, are then just 13-23-1 ATS in their next game, which probably speaks to their overconfidence — and the Chiefs laying double-digits only compounds that phenomenon. Head coach Andy Reid will be happy with the win — he does not care about paying off Kansas City bettors. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Game of the Month with the Washington Commanders (283) plus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (284). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Toronto Blue Jays (925) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (926) in Game Three of the World Series. THE SITUATION: Toronto (102-73) had won three games in a row before their 5-1 loss at home in the second game of this best-of-seven series. Los Angeles (103-71) has won six of their last seven games. 

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: I loved how the situation came together to back the Dodgers in Game Two — and that result set up another great situation with the Over with this series moving to Los Angeles for Game Three. The Dodgers led MLB this season in weighted On-Base Average and weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed pitchers. The Blue Jays led MLB since May 1st in weighted On-Base Average and weighted Runs Created on the road against right-handed pitchers — and they led MLB in those categories after June 1st, July 1st, and August 1st as well. Toronto has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after losing their last game — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after failing to score more than one run in their last game. Now, after playing their last four games at home, the Blue Jays go back on the road, where they have played 8 of their last 12 road games Over the Total after playing three or more games in a row at home — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total on the road. They have played 25 of their last 42 road games Over the Total with the Total set at 8-8.5. Toronto has also played 6 of their last 8 road games Over the Total as an underdog priced at +150 or higher. Additionally, the Blue Jays have played 25 of their last 39 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 12 of their last 18 road games Over the Total in the second half of the season against teams with a winning record. Max Scherzer gets the ball after giving up two earned runs in 5 2/3 innings in his only postseason appearance on October 16th in the ALCS against Seattle. The deeper sabermetrics from that outing are not as bullish with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 5.24 and 5.39 from the peripheral numbers from that performance. In his 17 regular season starts, the right-hander posted a 5-5 record with a 5.19 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP. While the 41-year-old’s SIERA and xFIP for those appearances were 4.26 and 4.55, those improved numbers still do not inspire confidence at this point in his career. His expected ERA (xERA) of 4.78 from Statcast, which incorporates exit velocity and hard-hit rate into the otherwise fielding independent data, was even worse according to the advanced data. This is the Toronto starting pitcher I most wanted to target in an Over situation. And while he posted a 4.68 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP in his ten starts at home in the regular season, those numbers rose to a 5.91 ERA and a 1.40 WHIP in his seven starts on the road. Scherzer will be backed by a struggling Blue Jays bullpen that has a 5.82 ERA and a 1.53 WHIP in 21 2/3 innings in the postseason on the road. Scherzer’s teams have played 9 of his last 13 starts on the road Over the Total — and those teams have played 12 of his last 14 starts Over the Total at night. Los Angeles has played 19 of their last 30 home games Over the Total when listed in the -150 to -200 price range — and they have played 21 of their last 34 home games Over the Total with the Total listed in the 8-8.5 range. Additionally, they have played 16 of their last 23 home games Over the Total against teams from the American League — and they have played 27 of their last 46 home games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. LA counters with Tyler Glasnow, who has allowed only one earned run in his 13 1/3 innings in three playoff appearances this month. While he has pitched well, his SIERA and xFIP of 3.11 and 2.47 suggest he has not quite been that dominant as his frontline numbers suggest. In his 18 starts in the regular season, he posted a 4-3 record along with a 3.19 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP. Both his SIERA and xFIP projected an ERA of 3.88 and 3.72 moving forward. Another concern is his WHIP of 1.32 in his career 30 1/3 innings in the playoffs, a noticeable increase above his career 1.15 WHIP. The Dodgers’ bullpen is considered their weak link — and their relievers have posted a 4.79 ERA and a 1.50 WHIP in 20 2/3 innings at home in these playoffs. Los Angeles has played 15 of their last 24 games Over the Total when Scherzer is on the hill following a team victory in their last game.

FINAL TAKE: The Blue Jays have played 9 of their last 13 games this month Over the Total, including four of those five games on the road. 25* Major League Baseball Total of the Year with  Over the Total in the game between the Toronto Blue Jays (925) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (926). Best of luck for us — Frank.