Alex Smart

As the NBA season heats up into its mid-December stretch, tonight's matchup at Madison Square Garden pits the surging New York Knicks against the Miami Heat in what shapes up as a classic Eastern Conference clash. The Knicks, boasting a strong 19-8 record overall, have established themselves as one of the league's top contenders early on, particularly at home where they've dominated with efficient scoring and stout defense. Miami, sitting at 15-13, has shown flashes of their trademark grit but continues to grapple with inconsistencies, especially on the road where they've managed just a 5-8 mark through their away games so far. With the line settling around Knicks -7 (-110), this presents a prime opportunity to back the home favorites, leveraging key trends and angles that tilt heavily in New York's favor.

Digging into the rebounding battle, the Knicks hold a clear edge that could prove decisive. New York ranks fourth in the NBA with 46.3 total rebounds per game, including a robust 13.9 on the offensive glass, allowing them to control possession and generate second-chance points at a high clip. In contrast, the Heat have struggled mightily in this department, averaging just 10.5 offensive rebounds per contest, ranking them 22nd league-wide and ninth-worst overall,which limits their ability to extend possessions and capitalize on misses. This mismatch is amplified in road scenarios for Miami, where defensive vulnerabilities have surfaced in recent losses, often allowing opponents to pull away by dominating the boards and transition opportunities. The Knicks, fresh off winning the NBA In-Season Tournament, have thrived in these midseason spots, posting an offensive rating of 122.3 (third-best in the league) while slowing the pace to the second-least up-tempo over their last 10 games, which neutralizes high-octane offenses like Miami's and forces them into half-court grinds where rebounding disparities shine.

From a betting angle, the Heat's road woes extend beyond stats into outright performance trends. They've dropped eight of their 13 away contests, including tough defeats against strong Eastern foes like Boston and Orlando, where they've allowed an average of over 115 points while struggling to keep games close. New York, meanwhile, has been a reliable cover machine as home favorites, especially against teams with subpar offensive rebounding, going 12-4 against the spread in similar setups this season. Adding to the intrigue, Miami's net rating dips negatively on the road, highlighting their difficulty in matching physicality away from home, while the Knicks' defensive rating of 114.4 keeps opponents in check during these prime-time matchups. Injuries could play a role too,Miami's depth has been tested lately, potentially leaving them shorthanded against a Knicks squad that's largely healthy and firing on all cylinders.

All signs point to the Knicks pulling away for a comfortable win here, making the -7 point spread an attractive play at -110 odds.  Back New York to leverage their home-court rebounding dominance and midseason momentum for another statement victory.

As the NFL playoff race heats up in Week 16 of the 2025 season, all eyes turn to M&T Bank Stadium for a primetime showdown between the New England Patriots (8-6) and the Baltimore Ravens (9-5) on Sunday Night Football. With both teams vying for AFC positioning, Baltimore clinging to a wild-card spot and New England pushing for a division title edge, this matchup carries significant implications. Oddsmakers have installed the Ravens as slim 3 -point favorites (-120), reflecting Baltimore's home-field prowess and recent form, while the total sits at 48 points in what projects as a potentially high-scoring affair. However, diving deeper into the trends and angles reveals a compelling case for the hosts to cover the spread and assert dominance.

Baltimore's offensive surge, particularly on the ground, stands out as a key angle in this contest. Led by a fully healthy Lamar Jackson, the Ravens rank second in Rush EPA since Week 8, showcasing an explosive rushing attack that's averaged over 150 yards per game in that span. This plays perfectly into New England's defensive vulnerabilities, as the Patriots sit dead last at 30th in Rush Success Rate allowed, exacerbated by a rash of injuries to frontline defenders like linemen Will Campbell and Milton Williams, plus linebacker Robert Spillane. The Pats have struggled mightily against mobile quarterbacks and potent ground games, conceding an average of 5.2 yards per carry to opposing rushers over their last five outings. Adding to the mismatch, New England's secondary ranks a dismal 26th in pass defense DVOA, and they could be without key corners Marcus Jones and Carlton Davis due to lingering injuries, opening the door for Jackson to exploit downfield mismatches with receivers like Zay Flowers and Rashod Bateman.

On the flip side, while the Patriots have compiled an impressive 8-6 record, a closer look at their schedule uncovers some inflated success. New England has feasted on a softer slate, with many wins coming against rookie or underperforming quarterbacks, including narrow escapes against teams like the Jets and Colts. Their fortune in high-variance scenario, boasting a league-high 75% fourth-down conversion rate and opportunistic fumble recoveries, may not sustain against a battle-tested Ravens squad that's gone 6-2 at home this season.

Player-specific angles add another layer to the Ravens' edge. Derrick Henry, Baltimore's workhorse back, has a 56.7% probability of finding the end zone, per predictive analytics, given New England's porous run defense. For the Patriots, rookie QB Drake Maye's mobility could keep things competitive early, but Baltimore's pass rush,ranking top-10 in pressure rate,should force hurried decisions. Historical context also favors the Ravens, who dismantled New England 37-26 in their last meeting back in 2022, covering as road favorites in a shootout. All told, the trends point to Baltimore leveraging their ground game and defensive opportunism to cover the -3 spread comfortably.

Best Bet: Ravens -3 (-120). While the Patriots have shown grit, the angles here from rush mismatches to schedule strength,overwhelmingly favor the home team in a statement win.

As the college basketball season heats up, all eyes turn to a compelling neutral-site matchup in Portland on Sunday where the No. 7-ranked Gonzaga Bulldogs (11-1) face off against the Oregon Ducks (6-5). Gonzaga enters as heavy favorites with a spread of -11, a moneyline around -750, and a total points line hovering at 158.5 to 159, depending on the sportsbook. This game pits a high-octane offensive powerhouse against a Ducks squad that's shown flashes of potential but has struggled with consistency, particularly on the defensive end against elite competition. For bettors, the angles here lean heavily toward Gonzaga not just winning, but covering comfortably, thanks to their superior efficiency, depth, and recent form.

Gonzaga has been nothing short of dominant this season, boasting an 11-1 record straight up and a strong 9-3 mark against the spread. Their offense is firing on all cylinders, averaging 92.4 points per game (11th nationally) while shooting an impressive 52.5% from the field, ranking eighth in Division I. Recent blowouts highlight their prowess: a 10-point win over UCLA, another 10-point dismantling of Alabama, and a staggering 35-point road thrashing of Kentucky. These victories underscore the Bulldogs' depth, with a balanced rotation that keeps legs fresh and maintains pressure throughout the game. Key contributors like their efficient shooters and versatile bigs have propelled an effective field goal percentage of around 56% in recent outings, making them a nightmare for defenses that can't match their pace and precision.

On the flip side, Oregon has limped to a 6-5 start, revealing clear defensive vulnerabilities when matched against top-tier teams. The Ducks allow opponents to shoot 42.9% from the field overall, but that number balloons against stronger offenses, as seen in losses where they've been outpaced and outrebounded. Their slower tempo, averaging just 77.6 points per game could play into Gonzaga's hands, as the Bulldogs thrive in transition and exploit mismatches. While Oregon boasts solid rebounding (38.4 per game) and occasional standout performances, like Kwame Evans Jr.'s recent 21-point, seven-rebound effort, their defense has shown cracks in containing high-volume shooters and fast breaks. Against ranked or comparable foes, the Ducks have often failed to keep games close, posting a middling ATS record that reflects their inconsistency.

Diving into the betting trends, Gonzaga's 6-3-1 ATS clip this season improves to 11-1 SU in their last 12 games overall, though they've gone 3-8-1 ATS in recent matchups against Big Ten opponents like Oregon. That said, my predictive models give the Bulldogs a 60.2% chance to cover -11 spread, factoring in their offensive efficiency and Oregon's defensive lapses.

From a handicapping angle, the neutral-site factor in Portland favors Gonzaga, given their regional familiarity and rabid fan support in the Pacific Northwest. Oregon's transition defense could be exposed by the Bulldogs' depth chart, which features versatile guards and forwards like Adam Miller and Braden Huff, allowing for sustained pressure without fatigue.

In summary, this shapes up as a statement game for Gonzaga to close nonconference play on a high note. Back the Bulldogs -11 to cover, leveraging their offensive firepower against Oregon's defensive soft spots.

As the 2025 NFL season barrels toward its climax in Week 16, few matchups encapsulate the league's unpredictability quite like the Los Angeles Chargers' road trip to face the Dallas Cowboys at AT&T Stadium. With the Chargers sitting at a robust 10-4 record and riding a wave of momentum, they've clinched a playoff spot and are vying for seeding, while the Cowboys limp in at 6-7-1, clinging to a razor-thin 1% chance of postseason survival after a string of inconsistent performances. This Sunday afternoon clash, , has Dallas installed as a slim 2 -point home favorite, but the betting value screams toward the visitors in what could be a gritty, battle . Drawing from recent trends and key angles, the Chargers +2 emerges as the sharp play, potentially keeping L.A.'s perfect underdog record intact this season.

The Chargers' ascent this year has been fueled by a stingy defense that's ascended to elite status, ranking near the top in yards and points allowed per game. Justin Herbert, despite battling through injuries and posting a quarterback rating below his career norm, has orchestrated a six-win surge in the last seven outings, including a playoff-clinching upset over the Chiefs as 6-point road dogs in Week 15. This resilience shines in their against-the-spread (ATS) trends: L.A. is 4-1 ATS over their last five games overall and a flawless 3-0 as underdogs this season, covering comfortably in spots against tough foes like the Eagles and Chiefs. On the flip side, their road ATS mark dips to 1-4 in the past five away contests, but that's mitigated by Dallas' own vulnerabilities, the Cowboys have failed to capitalize on home-field advantage, going just 3-4 ATS at AT&T Stadium while allowing explosive plays through the air. With Herbert's downfield accuracy poised to exploit a Cowboys secondary that's hemorrhaged yardage in chunks, expect L.A.'s balanced attack, led by running back Omarion Hampton, to control the tempo and keep drives alive against a Dallas defense that's middling in red-zone efficiency.

Dallas, meanwhile, boasts one of the NFL's most potent offenses, with Dak Prescott near the league leaders in passing yards and touchdowns, but their season has been derailed by defensive lapses and a lack of consistency, culminating in a Week 15 home loss to Minnesota as 6-point favorites. The Cowboys' trends paint a picture of volatility: They've hit the over in nine of their last 11 games, including three straight, thanks to high-scoring shootouts, yet their ATS record sits at a pedestrian 6-8 overall. Motivation could be a critical angle here,Dallas is essentially playing out the string after a collapse that included fourth-quarter meltdowns, while the Chargers are hungry to build momentum heading into January. Expert models and sharp bettors are leaning L.A.'s way, with projections like 24-21 or 27-23 favoring the Bolts to win outright or lose by a field goal at worst. Bruce Marshall, who's cashed 45 of his last 73 NFL ATS picks, is among those backing the Chargers to cover, citing their defensive edge against Prescott's unit.

Digging deeper into the angles, this game's script favors the underdog due to contrasting team psyches and matchup specifics. The Cowboys' over reliance on the pass plays into the Chargers' strength as L.A. ranks high in pass defense, limiting big plays that have plagued Dallas' secondary all year. Injuries have hampered both sides, but Herbert's post-surgery grit and the Bolts' rest advantage (coming off a Monday game) could tilt the scales. Public betting shows 66% of early spread action on the Chargers, signaling value against a line that toggled between -1.5 and -2.5 midweek. In a league where road underdogs have covered at a 14-11 clip this season for favorites, L.A.'s hot streak and Dallas' fade make this a prime spot to fade the home team.

Ultimately, while the Cowboys' star power might keep it close early, the Chargers' defensive prowess and underdog mojo position them to cover +2, and even steal a outright victory. In a Week 16 slate loaded with playoff implications, this pick stands out as a calculated edge for bettors eyeing trends over hype.

As the 2025 NFL season nears its conclusion, the Kansas City Chiefs are navigating uncharted waters, missing the playoffs for the first time since 2014, a period that predates Patrick Mahomes' arrival by three years and marks only the second year under head coach Andy Reid. The blow is compounded by Mahomes' season-ending torn ACL, abruptly halting a remarkable run of 10 consecutive playoff appearances, including three straight Super Bowl berths. This streak ranks as the second-longest in NFL history, behind only the New England Patriots' 11-year dominance from 2009 to 2019, and it was the league's active longest, surpassing the Buffalo Bills' six seasons. Now sitting at 6-8, the Chiefs have endured their most losses since the forgettable 2-14 campaign of 2012, their last losing season. Remarkably, seven of their eight defeats this year have come by a single score, ending a streak of 16 consecutive wins in such tight games. The disparity is stark: a 112-34 record in Mahomes' starts versus 10-8 without him. Looking ahead, Reid will be 68 next season, older than any coach to hoist the Lombardi Trophy, casting some doubt on immediate rebound prospects, though Mahomes could have ample chances in the latter stages of his career.

Despite the setbacks, Week 16 presents a prime betting opportunity for the Chiefs as 2.5-point road favorites against the Tennessee Titans, where Tennessee is receiving its fewest points as an underdog all season. This matchup highlights Kansas City's underlying strengths, as they remain one of just three teams league-wide ranking in the top 10 for yardage on both offense and defense. In contrast, the Titans languish in the bottom 10 in those categories, operating in a sluggish, self-induced haze. Tennessee's dismal 2-15 ATS record following away games against NFC opponents further tilts the scales. Reid's proven acumen shines here, boasting a 26-9 ATS mark on the road with sub-.500 teams throughout his career, suggesting the Chiefs are far from a lost cause.

Enter Gardner Minshew, the Chiefs' new quarterback, whose gunslinger mentality injects fresh energy. Minshew holds a flawless 4-0 straight-up and ATS record on the road when his team enters off back-to-back losses, precisely the situation at hand. This quirky stat underscores his potential to ignite a turnaround. While the Chiefs' long-term outlook carries uncertainty, this spot demands a measured approach rather than rash dismissal. The alignment of factors,KC's balanced metrics, Tennessee's woes, Reid's historical edge, and Minshew's niche success, makes laying under a FG with Kansas City a compelling choice for a hard-fought road cover and victory.