Brandon Lee

PICK - USC Trojans -5 
RATING: 30*
ROT#: 729

The fact that USC is a 5-point road favorite coming off a 56-58 loss at Oregon State as a 9.5-point favorite says a lot. The betting public can't make sense of it and it's why they are lining up to take the Cardinal here as a home dog. This is one of those lines that just stink to the point that I got to fade the public money. 

Not only that, USC is the better team and while they slipped up against the Beavers on Tuesday they were 2-0 away from home in Pac-12 play before that loss, beating Arizona by 14 and and Arizona State by 9. 

You also have to take into consideration the current form of Stanford, which enters off back-to-back double-digit losses. First it was a 14-point setback on the road against Utah and then a 13-point loss at Colorado. That's now 4 times in their last 5 games that the Cardinal have given up 70 or more points. USC is only giving up 61.8 ppg on the road and 65.4 ppg in conference play. 

USC has also been a moneymaker on the road over the last 2 seasons, going 11-3 ATS. They are also a dominant 9-2 ATS last 11 off a loss, winning in this spot by an average of 9.1 ppg. Give me the Trojans -5! 

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50* PELICANS/JAZZ NBA *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Pelicans +6.5) 

I'll take my chances here with New Orleans as a 6.5-point road dog against the Jazz. These two teams faced off in Utah on Tuesday and the Jazz won that matchup 118-102. Not a lot the Pelicans could do in that first meeting, as Utah went off from behind the 3-point line, hitting 21 of 47 (45%) from deep. New Orleans in comparison was just 6 of 26 (23%). 

One thing I liked from that first meeting is the fact that Utah had no answer for Zion Williamson, as he went 14 of 19 for 32 points. If he'd just got a little more help from his supporting cast, that would have been a much different outcome. New Orleans should be the much more motivated team in the rematch and I not only think they cover, but I give them a great shot here of winning the game outright. Give me the Pelicans +6.5! 

40* COLO ST/UTAH ST NCAAB LATE NIGHT BAILOUT (Colorado St +8) 

I like the value here with Colorado State as a near double-digit dog in Thursday's rematch against Utah State. These two teams played on Tuesday and the Aggies rolled to a 83-64 home win. It was just a bad night shooting for the Rams, who shot just 33% from deep. Utah State on the other hand was on fire, shooting 53% from behind the 3-point line. 

Even after that game the Rams still are the much better 3-point shooting team, as they are hitting 39% as a team on the season. Colorado State is also suffered just 3 losses all season and are one of the more well coached teams in the MWC. Not only do I think the Rams shoot better in the rematch, but they are going to be the more motivated team having getting blown out in that first meeting. Give me Colorado State +8! 

40* WICHITA ST/MEMPHIS NCAAB VEGAS INSIDER (Memphis -2.5) 

I think this is the perfect price and spot to roll the dice with Memphis at home against the Shockers. The Tigers come into this game a mere 6-5, but could easily be sitting with a much better record, as all but one of their defeats have come by single digits. They also only have lost once on their home floor. 

The value with Memphis in this one stems from the fact that they come in having failed to cover each of their last 7 games. I just think you have to put that aside given the small number we are dealing with.

I also like the matchup. The Tigers are 3rd in the AAC in both offensive rebound rate and free throw rate. Two things Wichita State has struggled with. The Shockers are also built defensively to take away the 3-point shot and Memphis is a team that wants to attack you inside. Give me the Tigers -2.5!