Brandon Lee

FREE PICK - Houston Astros -165
RATING: 30*
ROT#: 966

I will take my chances with the Astros cashing in a win at home against the A's on Friday. It's really early in the 2021 season, but Houston has made quite a statement against the defending AL West champs. The Astros opened the season by sweeping a 4-game series at Oakland, outscoring the A's 35-9 in the process. It was more of the same when the two teams opened a 33-game series at Houston last night, as the Astros won that game 6-2. 

It's night and day when comparing the two offenses of these teams early on. Oakland can't get anything going, as they are averaging just 2.4 runs/game, while hitting .168 as a team thru their first 7 games. Houston on the other hand is averaging 7.5 runs/game and hitting .297 as a team in 6 games. 

Both starters for today's game faced the opposing team in that 4-game set in Oakland. Sean Manaea of the A's gave up 5 runs on 6 hits (2 HR) and 3 walks in just 4 2/3 innings of a 2-9 loss. Lance McCullers of the Astros allowed just 1 run on 2 hits in 5 innings. Oakland has lost 11 of Manaea's 15 career starts against Houston, while the Astros are 8-3 in McCullers 11 starts vs the A's. Give me the Astros -165! 

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40* (NBA) - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Over 227) 

The OVER 227 is definitely a play for me tonight in the Pelicans/76ers matchup. New Orleans has been one of the worst defensive teams all season and are really playing poorly on that side of the ball right now. Pelicans are giving up 123.6 ppg on 50% shooting over their last 5 games with all 5 opponents scoring at least 115 points. 

With the 76ers playing at close to full strength and coming in fresh off 2 days of rest, I would be shocked if they don't put up at least 120 in this game. If they do that, this should fly past the mark, as the Pelicans are averaging 116.7 ppg at home. I also don't think Philadelphia will be laying it all on the line defensively like they did in their last game at Boston. Give me the OVER 227! 

40* (MLB) - Situational RUN LINE MASSACRE (Padres -1.5, -114)

I will gladly take my chances here with the Padres on the -1.5 run line as they get ready to open up a 3-game series at Texas. San Diego should get more than offense to win here going away, as the Rangers don't figure to do much against Padres starters Joe Musgrove.

In his first start of 2021, Musgrove threw 6 shutout innings against the Dbacks with 8 Ks. Going back to last season, that's 3 straight starts where Musgrove hasn't allowed a run. He's also got a ridiculous 29 strikeouts to just 2 walks in 19 innings over these 3 starts. 

Rangers will have Kohei Arihara on the mound. He lasted just 5 innings in his first start at KC, allowing 3 runs on 6 hits with a mere 1 strikeout. Give me the Padres -1.5 (-114)! 

40* (NBA) - Smart Money VEGAS STEAMROLLER (Wolves +9) 

I really like the value here with the Timberwolves as a big 9-point dog at Boston on Friday. Minnesota has covered 4 of their last 6 and are a team on the rise right now as they just recently added back one of their best players, D'Angelo Russell to the mix. Russell scored 25 off the bench in the Twolves 116-106 win against the Kings on Monday and 17 in a mere 4-point loss at Indiana on Wednesday. 

As for Boston, I don't love this spot as they will be playing their 3rd game in 4 nights. Celtics are also just not shooting the ball great right now. They only hit 42% from the field in their last game against the Knicks. The loss of Evan Fournier is a big one. Another thing here is Boston could have a hard time not looking past this game with a huge 3-game road trip at Denver, Portland and LAL looming. Give me the Timberwolves +9.5!