10* FREE NCAAB PICK (St Louis +10.5) 

I'll take my chances here with St Louis as a double-digit dog, as I just feel there's too much value with this number to not take a shot. I think we are seeing inflation on the number because of the big news that Va Tech is going to get back point guard Justin Robinson. Also you have a St. Louis team that wouldn't have made the tournament had they not won the A-10 Tournament. 

One thing the Billikens do have is momentum, as they just knocked off 3 of the top 4 teams (Dayton, Davidson and St. Bonaventure) in the Atlantic 10 in route to that automatic bid. There's also plenty to like about this St Louis team. They not only have Power 5 athletes on their roster, this a team that is built around a gritty man-to-man defense that can really protect the rim. 

I think they have the talent to slow down the big playmakers of Virginia Tech in Nickeil Alexander-Walker and Kerry Blackshear. I also think there's a decent chance that Robinson doesn't impact the game as much as people think. The guy hasn't played since January and you have to wonder if he didn't rush back before he was fully healthy. Robinson really mixes up the roles and I just don't like big chemistry changes this late in the year, especially on this stage. Give me St Louis +10.5! 

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40* MARCH MADNESS ATS MASSACRE (Texas Tech -12.5) 

I'll take my chances here with the Red Raiders making easy work of the Norse. Texas Tech is better than people think. The surprising loss to West Virginia in the Big 12 Tournament is the only reason they aren't getting more love. 

I'm confident that was more of them just not taking that game all that seriously, as they had beat West Virginia by 31 in the most recent meeting between the two. They had also won 9 straight prior to that upset, so it's not like that was a continuation of bad play. The fact that this team stood toe-to-toe with Duke in non-conference lets me know they are for real. Give me the Red Raiders -12.5! 

50* NCAA TOURN VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Houston -12) 

I'll gladly take my chances with Houston. While I think most people are aware of what Houston had done, but I don't think the majority understand just how good this team is. The Cougars rank 19th in offensive efficiency and 15th in defensive efficiency. Georgia State in comparison ranks 102nd in offensive efficiency and 143rd in defensive efficiency. 

One thing that Georgia State does well is shoot the 3-pointer, but that's a big problem. Houston ranks 3rd in 3-point percentage D. I just think that this is going to be a blowout right from the start. Give me Houston -12! 

40* NCAAB NO DOUBT ATS BLOWOUT (Mississippi St -6) 

I'll take my chances here with the Bulldogs covering the 6-point spread against the Flames. I love No. 12 over a No. 5 upset as everyone else, but I don't think it's happening here. Mississippi State is hands down the better team and will have no problem here winning by double-digits. Liberty lost to two SEC teams in Alabama and Vanderbilt by more than this number, including a 9-point loss to a Commodores team that didn't win a single game in the SEC. Mississippi State won by 16 on the road in their only meeting against Vanderbilt. Give me Mississippi State -6! 

50* NCAA 1ST ROUND TOTAL OF THE YEAR (Under 126.5) 

I'll take my chances here with the UNDER in Friday's matchup between Virginia Tech and St. Louis. I don't think either of these two teams are going to find it easy to score, as both of these teams are built on their defense. Both rank in the Top 15 in the country in defensive efficiency. St Louis also likes to grind things out and limit the number of possessions, which is ideal for unders. It's why the UNDER has cashed in 37 of the last 54 non-conference games for the Billikens. Give me the UNDER 126.5! 

40* NCAAB UNDERDOG ATS SHOCKER (Colgate +17.5)

I'll take my chances here with the Raiders keeping this thing closer than expected against the Vols. Don't get me wrong, I'm not expecting a win here for Colgate, but I think they can keep this close. 

That's because the Raiders can effectively score the basketball and are really good from behind the 3-point line. All five of Colgate's starters can shoot the 3. The worst of the bunch is Tucker Richardson and he shoots 36%. Tennessee only had 3 guys who play significant minutes that shoot better than Richardson. The Raiders will use the long ball to keep this close and the backdoor will be wide open if it comes to that. Give me Colgate +17.5!