Frank Sawyer

At 7:10 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the San Francisco Giants (911) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (912). THE SITUATION: San Francisco (41-30) has lost two of their last three games after their 11-5 loss on the road against the Dodgers last night. Los Angeles (42-29) has won two of their last three games.  

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Giants have now scored 34 combined runs in their last five games — and they have played 46 of their last 64 games on the road Over the Total as an underdog including 13 of those 17 games this season. Additionally, they have played 29 of their last 35 games Over the Total as an underdog priced in the +125 to +175 range including 10 of those 11 games this season. They have played 10 of their last 11 road games Over the Total against teams winning 54-62% of their games. They have also played 23 of their last 31 road games Over the Total against fellow NL West opponents including all five of these games this season. Harrison gets the ball looking to build on his 1-1 record along with a 4.56 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP in eight games including four starts. His expected ERA (xERA) from Statcast, which incorporates exit velocity and hard-hit rate into the otherwise fielding independent data, sits at 4.59 which is right in line with where he was last season. The left-hander had a 4.56 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP in 24 starts last season with his xERA projecting an ERA of 4.87. He faces this Dodgers lineup that ranks ninth in MLB in weighted On-Base Average and weighted Runs Created at home against left-handed pitchers this season. Los Angeles has played 24 of their last 36 games at home Over the Total. Furthermore, they have played 20 of their last 29 home games Over the Total when priced as a money-line favorite at -150 or higher — and they have played 27 of their last 37 games Over the Total at home when priced in the -151 to -200 range including six of those eight games this season. They counter with May who has a 3-4 record along with a 4.46 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP in 12 starts. His xERA calls for some regression to an ERA of 4.58 moving forward.

FINAL TAKE: May faces a Giants team that leads MLB in weighted On-Base Average and weighted Runs Created on the road against right-handed pitchers since June 1st. 8* MLB Sunday Night ESPN O/U Special with Over the Total in the game between the San Francisco Giants (911) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (912). Best of luck for us — Frank.

FRANK’S CUTTING ROOM FLOOR FOR SUNDAY, 6/15:

My “Cutting Room Floor” plays are the situations I considered the closest to being worthy of investment but did not make the “final cut” for my official plays today for subscribers. The last play I cut for Sunday night is with the Los Angeles Dodgers with the money-line versus the San Francisco Giants listing both starting pitchers Dustin May and Kyle Harrison. Los Angeles (42-29) has won two of their last three games after their 11-5 victory against the Giants last night. The Dodgers host Sunday Night Baseball on ESPN tonight — but it will be a late afternoon game at Dodger Stadium where they have won 20 of their last 28 home games played in the afternoon. They have also won 6 of their last 8 home games against fellow NL West rivals. San Francisco (41-30) has lost 13 of their last 18 road games with the Total set in the 9-9.5 range. The Giants have also lost 11 of their last 18 road games played in the day time. Take the Los Angeles Dodgers with the money-line listing both starting pitchers. Best of luck — Frank.

Frank Sawyer’s Hollywood Sports is on a 15 of 21 (71%) NBA Game of the Year/Month playoff run after DELIVERING their 25* NBA Game of the Year on Oklahoma City on Friday! Frank is on a 7 of 8 (88%) All-Sports run with featured 25*/20*/10* plays — and now he furthers his 14 of 21 (67%) NBA playoff run with featured plays this postseason by UNLEASHING his 25* NBA Total of the Year for Monday’s Indiana-Oklahoma City O/U winner on ABC-TV at 8:35 PM ET! DO NOT MISS OUT!

At 4:10 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the money-line on the Arizona Diamondbacks (910) versus the San Diego Padres (909) listing both starting pitchers Merrill Kelly and Nick Pivetta. THE SITUATION: Arizona (37-34) has won five games in a row after their 8-7 victory at home against the Padres in the opening game of this three-game series. San Diego (38-31) has lost three games in a row.

REASONS TO TAKE THE DIAMONDBACKS: Arizona is cooking right now with nine victories in their last 12 contests. The season-ending injury to starting pitcher Corbin Burnes to Tommy John surgery seems to have woken this team up — and they are back in the race to at least vie for a wildcard spot in the playoffs. The Diamondbacks have won 7 of their last 8 games after winning their last game — and they have won 6 of their last 7 games after scoring five or more runs in their last game. They have also won 6 straight games at home — and they have won 15 of their last 21 home games in June going back to last season. Additionally, Arizona has won 8 of their 11 home games played during the day this season. Kelly gets the ball looking to build on his 6-2 record along with a 3.18 ERA and a 0.99 WHIP in 14 starts. Both his SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 3.48 and 3.31 moving forward — so he is pitching close to what his frontline numbers suggest. After a slow start to the season, he has posted a 2.13 ERA and a 0.92 WHIP in his last six starts with 46 strikeouts over those 38 innings — and he has not allowed an earned run in his last two starts across 13 innings with a 0.46 WHIP and 15 strikeouts during that span. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he enjoys a 2.59 ERA along with a 0.98 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .179 in seven starts as opposed to his 3.79 ERA along with a 0.99 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .219 in seven starts on the road. After enduring a down season last year which included being out for a few months with a shoulder injury, he has regained his form from 2022-23 while relying more on his change up and slider as out pitches as the 36-year-old’s velocity on his fastball drops off a bit. He faces a Padres lineup that ranks 25th in MLB in weighted On-Base Average and weighted Runs Created on the road against right-handed pitchers this season. They are hitting much better lately either as they rank 23rd and 24th in those categories since May 1st and 25th and 21st since the beginning of June. San Diego is moving in the wrong direction with seven losses in their last ten games. The Padres have lost 5 of their last 7 games on the road — and they have lost 14 of their last 22 road games in June going back to last season. They have lost 9 of their last 14 road games when listed in the +/- 125 price range — and they have lost 8 of their last 13 road games played in the afternoon. They counter with Pivetta who has a 6-2 record along with a 3.48 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP. His expected ERA (xERA) from Statcast, which incorporates exit velocity and hard-hit rate into the otherwise fielding independent data, sits at 3.74 — and that matches exactly what his xFIP projects for the rest of the season. The Regression Gods may already be making their presence known since he has been saddled with a 5.11 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP in his last eight starts. The right-hander has always been streaky — he posted a 6-12 record with a 4.14 ERA with Boston last season. He has been more effective at home at Petco Park where he owns a 2.40 ERA along with a 0.85 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .197 in seven starts — but in his six starts on the road, he has a 4.94 ERA along with a 1.45 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .246. In his four starts during the day this season, he has a 4.50 ERA along with a 1.20 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .240.

FINAL TAKE: Pivetta has a tough assignment pitching against this Diamondbacks team that ranks second in MLB this season in weighted On-Base Average and weighed Runs Created at home against right-handed pitchers. Arizona has been very consistent as well as they rank fourth in both those categories since May 1st and second and third since the beginning of June. With the Diamondbacks price below my -150 price threshold for featured 25*/20*/10* plays, let’s attack. 25* MLB National League West Game of the Month with the money-line on the Arizona Diamondbacks (910) versus the San Diego Padres (909) listing both starting pitchers Merrill Kelly and Nick Pivetta. Best of luck for us — Frank.