Frank Sawyer

FRANK’S CUTTING ROOM FLOOR FOR SATURDAY, 3/22:

My “Cutting Room Floor” plays are the situations I considered the closest to being worthy of investment but did not make the “final cut” for my official plays today for subscribers. The last play I cut for Saturday is with Under the Total in the game between UCLA and Tennessee. UCLA (23-10) has won three of their last four games after their 72-47 victory against Utah State in the opening round of the Big Dance on Thursday. The Bruins have played 12 of their last 18 games Under the Total against non-conference opponents. They have also played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total on a neutral court. Tennessee (28-7) has won four of their last five games after their 77-62 victory against Wofford in their Round of 64 game in the NCAA Tournament on Thursday. The Volunteers have played 10 of their last 15 games on the road Under the Total after a win by 15 or more points. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total when playing with one day or less of rest. Take the Under. Best of luck — Frank.

Frank Sawyer is on a 12 of 17 (71%) NCAA Tournament run with featured 25*/20*/10* plays after losing with St. John’s this afternoon! Frank is still on an 11 of 16 (69%) All-Sports run with featured plays! Now Frank closes out his Saturday card by furthering his 58 of 96 (60%) CBB featured plays run with the UCLA-Tennessee ATS winner on TBS-TV at 9:40 PM ET! Want ONE MORE WINNER for Saturday? BANK on Frank!

At 9:40 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Tennessee Volunteers (822) minus the points versus the UCLA Bruins (821) in the Round of 32 of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Tennessee (28-7) has won four of their last five games after their 77-62 victory as an 18.5-point favorite against Wofford in the first round of the NCAA Tournament on Thursday. UCLA (23-10) has won three of their last four games after their 72-47 victory as a 6-point favorite against Utah State in the Round of 64 of the Big Dance on Thursday. This game is being played on a neutral court at Rupp Arena in Lexington, Kentucky.

REASONS TO TAKE THE VOLUNTEERS MINUS THE POINTS: This situation did not particularly stand out at first glance (a common theme today — I do like tomorrow’s card much better, FYI) — but upon my final deep dive late this afternoon, I have concluded that this is a very bad matchup for what is otherwise a good Bruins team. In theory, UCLA is a dangerous underdog since they will slow the game down and do the things I look for in creating extra scoring possessions if their shots are not falling. The Bruins rank seventh in the nation by forcing turnovers in 22.7% of their opponent’s possessions. They also pull down 32.8% of their missed shots which ranks 91st in the nation. But the Volunteers are a tough foe who are well-versed in what head coach Mick Cronin’s team will attempt to do. Tennessee is not going to mind the slow pace at all since they love playing grinders with their big bodies and perhaps the most physical defense in the country. They protect the basketball by turning the ball over only 15.8% of the time which ranks 85th in the nation. Admittedly, the Volunteers' defensive rebounding numbers are not great with their opponents pulling down 30.0% of their missed shots — but those numbers also reflect head coach Rick Barnes’ preference to sacrifice defensive rebounding for being aggressive for getting out on the fast break when they pull down the basketball 70% of the time. For the record, Tennessee held Auburn — and a better offensive rebounding team than UCLA — to rebounding only 26.5% of their missed shots in the SEC tournament. What worries me about the Bruins even more is that their defense has lagged lately. Over the last month, their opponent’s effective field goal percentage dropped to 175th in the nation. Defense is the weakness of this UCLA team — and scoring is typically the Achilles’ heel for Barnes’ teams at Tennessee. They rank 128th on the season with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 49.9%. The problem is their defense inside the arc where they rank 187th in the nation by allowing their opponents to make 51.1% of their 2-pointers. UCLA did hold the Aggies to 30% shooting on Thursday in what was the best defensive effort in their last 27 contests — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of the 6 games this season when they held their opponent to no higher than 33% shooting. In the 22 games with Cronin as their head coach when they held their opponent to no better than 33% shooting, they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of those contests. They have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their 5 games on the road this season after a win by 15 or more points. They have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 25 games in Cronin’s tenure when they were on the road for the second time in three days. On the road, the Bruins surrender +1.5 more adjusted points per 100 possessions with the problem continuing to be their interior defense. They rank 290th in the nation on the road by allowing their opponents to make 55.0% of their shots inside the arc. But of even greater concern is UCLA’s scoring decline away from home as they are scoring -8.2 fewer adjusted points per 100 possessions on the road. While they rank 52nd when playing at home by making 57.1% of their shots inside the arc, they plummet to a ranking of 230th on the road by hitting only 48.2% of their shots inside the arc. The Bruins have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games on the road with the Total set in the 150s. This UCLA team also loses hidden points from the free throw line. They only rank 190th in the nation in getting to the free throw line. And when they are on the line, they rank 231st by making just 70.8% of their shots from the charity stripe. The Volunteers see their opponents make 73.7% of their free throws which ranks 269th — so they will be pleasantly surprised to see the Bruins miss a few more of these shots. UCLA also ranks 209th in putting their opponents on the free throw line — and Tennessee ranks 31st on the road in getting to the free throw line. In expected close games, spotting a defensive juggernaut like the Vol's shots and points on the free throw line is a recipe to not cover the point spread. This is the second-best offensive team in Barnes’ era at Tennessee as they rank 17th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. They make 54.3% of their shots inside the arc which ranks 61st in the nation. They rank 30th in the nation by pulling down 35.3% of their missed shots. And this scoring attack is trending up with the recent emergence of Jordan Gaines who has scored 15.5 Points-Per-Game in the last six contests. But the play on the other end of the court continues to be the strength of the Volunteers. They rank third in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They also rank third in opponent effective goal percentage — and they also rank third by holding their opponents to just 28.2% shooting from behind the arc. The teams who shoot better closer to the basket have a better chance against this Tennessee team — and that is simply not UCLA. The Volunteers look to reach the Sweet 16 for the third straight season and tenth time with Barnes at the helm — and they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 27 games after a straight-up win.

FINAL TAKE: The Volunteers are battled-tested having gone through the gauntlet of the SEC this season that produced a record 14 teams into the Big Dance — and they also registered high-quality non-conference victories against Louisville, Baylor, and Illinois. They are one of just five teams to beat Auburn this season. The Volunteers have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games against teams outside the SEC. 10* CBB Saturday Late Show Bailout with the Tennessee Volunteers (822) minus the points versus the UCLA Bruins (821). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 2:40 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the St. John’s Red Storm (818) minus the points versus the Arkansas Razorbacks (817) in the Round of 32 of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: St. John’s (31-4) has won 10 straight games after their 83-53 victory against Nebraska-Omaha as an 18.5-point favorite in the first round of the NCAA Tournament on Thursday. Arkansas (21-13) has won four of their last five games after their 79-72 upset victory against Kansas as a 5-point underdog in their first-round contest in the Big Dance on Thursday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Amica Mutual Pavilion in Providence, Rhode Island.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RED STORM MINUS THE POINTS: Say what you want about Rick Pitino, but the guy is a fantastic basketball coach. In his second year at St. John’s, his team has won 20 of their last 21 games — and their four losses were by a combined 14 points. The weakness of his team is shooting — but his style of play compensates for that by being one of the best squads in the country in generating shot volume. They do not waste their chances — they rank 61st in the country by turning the ball over only 15.5% of the time. They get tons of second-chance scoring opportunities by ranking ninth in the nation by pulling down 37.4% of their missed shots. And they may be the best defensive team in the country. They rank second in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they claim the top spot in the country in that metric when playing on the road where they surrender a whopping -7.7 fewer adjusted points per 100 possessions. They rank sixth in the nation by forcing turnovers in 21.6% of their opponent’s possessions — and now they face a Razorbacks team that had turned the ball over in ten straight games before playing the Jayhawks on Thursday. St. John’s has covered the point spread in 21 of their last 30 games after a straight-up win including nine of those thirteen games played on the road. The Red Storm have also covered the point spread in 14 of their last 16 games against teams winning 60-80% of their games including seven of those eight games on the road. Arkansas does make 46.5% of their shots — but St. John’s has covered the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games against teams who make 45% or more of their shots including six of those nine games on the road. They have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 19 games with the Total set in the 140s — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games against teams outside the Big East. Arkansas has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 18 games after a straight-up win including five of those eight games played on the road. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games when playing for just the second time in eight days. Head coach John Calipari’s team is nearly the polar opposite of the Johnnies since they do not rely on shot volume. They rank 244th in the nation by pulling down 27.7% of their missed shots — and they rank 135th by forcing turnovers in only 17.7% of their opponent’s possessions. If their shots are not falling, then they lack a reliable Plan B — and that is a recipe for disaster against such a good defensive team like the Red Storm. It is telling that the Razorbacks have a 6-11 record against teams in the top 40 — but a 15- 2 record against their remaining opponents. Arkansas has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games against teams with a winning percentage of 80% or higher — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games against opponents outside the SEC.

FINAL TAKE: The Red Storm have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 30 games when favored — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games on the road when favored. 10* CBB Arkansas-St. John’s CBS-TV Special with the St. John’s Red Storm (818) minus the points versus the Arkansas Razorbacks (817). Best of luck for us — Frank.