Frank Sawyer

FRANK’S CUTTING ROOM FLOOR FOR MONDAY, 4/23:

My “Cutting Room Floor” plays are the situations I considered the closest to being worthy of investment but did not make the “final cut” for my official plays today for subscribers. The last play I cut for Monday was with Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Lakers and the Denver Nuggets. Los Angeles (49-36) was on a three-game winning streak before their 114-103 loss to the Nuggets in the opening game of this series on Saturday. The Lakers have played 30 of their last 41 road games Over the Total after a loss on the road in their last game. They have also played 16 of their last 21 road games Over the Total as an underdog in the 6.5 to 12 points. Denver (58-25) remains rested after getting last week off — and they have played 12 of their last 20 games Over the Total when playing for no more than the third time in the last ten days. The Nuggets have also played 7 of their last 11 first round playoff games Over the Total. Take the Over. Best of luck — Frank.

Frank Sawyer is on a 20 of 28 (71%) All-Sports run with featured 25*/20*/10* plays after settling for a 1-3 mark on Sunday! Frank was 1-1 in the NBA yesterday to continue his 11 of 14 (79%) NBA run with featured plays — and he enjoys longer 26 of 38 (68%) and 79 of 123 (65%) NBA featured play runs! Now Frank has tonight’s Lakers-Nuggets’ ATS winner on TNT at 10:10 PM ET! WATCH and WIN — and BANK on Frank!

At 10:10 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the money-line on the Edmonton Oilers (65) versus the Los Angeles Kings (64) in Game One of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Edmonton (49-27-6) has lost four of their last five games after their 5-1 loss at Colorado on Thursday. Los Angeles (43-28-11) has won three of their last four games after a 5-4 victory against Chicago on Thursday. 

REASONS TO TAKE THE OILERS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Edmonton has only won once in their last five games despite good underlying numbers. They have outplayed their last six opponents according to the expected goals-for numbers during a stretch that includes playoff teams Vegas, Vancouver, and Colorado. The Oilers have generated a 61.3% expected goals-for mark in their last six games — and they have eclipsed a 60% expected goals-for number in five of those six games. This team is due for a visit from the Regression Gods. Edmonton has won 19 of their last 31 games after failing to score more than one goal in their last game. They have also won 4 of their last 6 games when playing with three or more days of rest. And while they have only scored three combined goals in their last two games, they have then won 5 of their last 8 games after failing to score more than two goals in two straight games. Both of those games were on the road — they return home for the first two games of this series where they have won 27 of their last 40 games with the Total set at 6 or higher. Los Angeles enjoyed a favorable schedule down the stretch with their last five opponents being teams who failed to make the playoffs — and their last four games were at home. The Kings have lost 4 of their last 5 games on the road. And goalie Cam Talbot has been saddled with a .879 save percentage in his last four starts. 

FINAL TAKE: The Oilers won three of the four regular-season contests between these two teams after a 4-1 victory at home against the Kings on March 28th. Los Angeles has lost 11 of their last 17 opportunities to avenge a loss by two or more goals. 8* NHL Monday Late Show Bailout with the money-line on the Edmonton Oilers (65) versus the Los Angeles Kings (64). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:10 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Denver Nuggets (506) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Lakers (505) in Game Two of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Denver (58-25) took the opening game of this best-of-seven series with their 114-103 victory as a 7-point favorite on Saturday. Los Angeles (49-36) had their three-game winning streak with the loss.

REASONS TO TAKE THE NUGGETS MINUS THE POINTS: The Lakers have now lost nine straight games to Denver — which raises the urgency that they need to split the first two games on the road and avoid the requirement to beat the defending champions in four of the final potential five games in this series. But it will be difficult for Los Angeles to not think they let Game One slip away after owning a 49-37 lead midway through the second quarter. The free throw disparity in that game was particularly striking in the Lakers' favor despite them being on the road. Granted, Los Angeles ranks second in the league by getting to the line 24.2 times per game — and they also rank second in free throw rate. But while the Lakers made 17 of their 19 shots from the charity stripe, the Nuggets only had six free throw attempts all game. Denver averages 15.5 made free throws per game on 19.9 attempts — so expect at least another dozen or so free throw attempts from them tonight. The Nuggets were whistled for 20 fouls on Saturday which was five more than what were called on Los Angeles. The Lakers had 29 free throw attempts in their Play-In Tournament game against New Orleans which was 14 more than what the Pelicans got. New Orleans was whistled for 23 fouls in that game almost doubled the 12 personal fouls called on Los Angeles. But the Lakers have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after getting at least 10 more shots at the charity stripe than their opponent in two straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after drawing at least ten more personal fouls than their opponent. Denver has full confidence that they can flip the switch to defeat this Lakers’ team — but they may not want to temp fate again by falling behind by 12 points. The Nuggets are a rested team who are comfortable playing in the high altitude — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games when playing for no more than the third time in the last ten days. Denver has won two games in a row as well as five of their last six contests — and they have covered the point spread in 30 of their last 46 games at home after winning three of their last four games. They ended the regular season with a 1-point win at Memphis — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their 6 games this season when following up two straight double-digit victories.

FINAL TAKE: The Lakers have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games when playing with triple revenge — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games when attempting to end a losing streak of four or more games against their opponent. 10* NBA LA Lakers-Denver TNT Special with the Denver Nuggets (506) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Lakers (505). Best of luck for us — Frank.