Frank Sawyer

At 10:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Austria (225447) and Algeria (225448) in Group J action in the 2026 World Cup. THE SITUATION: Austria (W1-D0-L1)      looks to bounce back from a 2-0 loss against Argentina on Monday. Algeria (W1-D0-L1) wants to build off their 2-1 victory against Jordan on Monday. This match is being played on a neutral pitch at GEHA Stadium in Kansas City, Missouri.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: I got it very wrong last night in expecting an intense high-activity match between Spain and Uruguay. La Roja did their tiki-taka possession thing while La Celeste played out of character by embracing defensive tactics. I have never seen manager Marcelo Bielsa abandon his high-pressing, possession-based principles before. Even when he was managing Leeds United in the English Premier League, Bielsa would stay committed to his tactics, even as a big underdog against Manchester City — and his Leeds United team even upset Pep Guardiola’s group in a big match when it was a showdown between two sides who embodied the possession and high-press style of modern football. In hindsight, perhaps I should have seen the impending divorce between Bielsa and the Uruguayan national team coming (how does Bielsa sub out his best player, Real Madrid’s Federico Valverde, in the 57th minute?!?). Why do I mention this? Because I thought the books’ over/under number at 2 was kinda fishy — but I concluded that there were still a lot of ways to get to at least two combined goals (and it was agonizingly close to reaching a second goal in the second half, due to some spectacular misses by Spain — more on that the next time Spain plays …). Well, an over/under of 1.5 for this Austria-Algeria match raises my suspicion as well — so I certainly conducted my due diligence to determine what I was missing. Here’s the deal: if both teams earn a draw, then they both advance — so there is the potential of a replay of the “Disgrace of Gijon” scenario when West Germany defeated Austria by a 1-0 score in the 1982 World Cup, where both sides essentially stopped trying to score since that result got both teams into the Knockout Stage (and, coincidentally, eliminated Algeria from the Knockout Stage). In theory, that could happen in this match — so a nil-nil result is on the table. Both managers refute that they will embrace this strategy — I will quote them in my Final Take. There is some nine-dimensional chess going on where some pundits are guessing that neither side wants to finish in second place, since that places them in the bracket where Spain is potentially awaiting them in the Round of 32. But there is a fatal flaw to this logic: Austria remain in second place in Group J with a draw — and while a one-goal loss to Algeria tonight would drop them to this coveted third place slot to dodge Spain in the Round of 32, if they then concede a second goal, then their -2 net goal differential would place them out of the Knockout Stage completely! As of this evening, Iran currently takes the eighth and final third place slot in the Knockout Stage with three points and a -1 net goal differential -- so a two-goal loss eliminates Austria. And if you want to play nine-dimensional chess that Algeria would suddenly want to surrender a goal (up 1-0) to drop back to third place, then my new expensive Artificial Intelligence calculator tells me that would be two combined goals which cashes our Over. More on this scenario in the Final Take, but my careful analysis concludes that this is nonsense. Perhaps the lower Total is a reaction to Austria only generating 0.53 expected Goals (xG) when getting blanked by Argentina — but I am not going to overreact to a team struggling to score against the reigning World Cup champions who deployed a defensive low-block formation after taking a lead in the first half. Das Boot has produced a healthy five Big Chances (shots with at least a 35% expected goal probability) in their two matches. Led by manager Ralf Rangnick, this squad employs the prototypical aggressive style of professional Red Bull squads. This means vertical dynamism with a high press, quick transitions, constantly pushing forward, and quick shot-taking. This style is consistent with the type of play most of the players on the roster conduct with their professional teams. Many of the Austrian players are employed professionally in the German top-flight Bundesliga. Several players star for either RB Leipzig or Red Bull Salzburg in the Austrian top flight. Cohesion is an advantage this team will have in this event. Unsere Burschen came into the World Cup with 1-0 victories against Tunisia and South Korea in their last two friendlies, two opponents that are competing in this event — and if they take a 1-0 lead tonight, then Algeria will have to throw caution to the wind since a loss eliminates them from the Knockout Stage. This style of play can lead to blowouts, as Ghana found out in a 5-1 loss to Das Team in a friendly back on March 27th. In their eight matches in the World Cup qualifying stage, they scored 22 goals. Even when dismissing their 10-0 stomping of San Marino, scoring an additional 12 goals in those other seven matches is impressive. Rangnick has revived this national program since taking over in January of 2022. Austria was the surprise of the 2024 Euro Championship when they took first place in their group despite it being loaded with both France and the Netherlands. This is their first appearance in the World Cup since 1998 — another reason why Rangnick is not going to risk some nine-dimensional chess and settle for a draw, since a two-goal loss would be a national humiliation on the scale of the Steve Bartman/Chicago Cubs incident — and this group is well-tested on the international stage. They scored three goals apiece against the defensive-minded Poland squad and the Netherlands in the 2024 Euro before suffering a 2-1 loss against Türkiye in the Round of 16. On the Algeria side of the equation, they played on their front foot against Jordan with 17 shots, eight of which were on target. They also had three Big Chances. One problem for the Desert Foxes is that their keeper, Luca Zidane, has been shaky in both matches. He may not be able to be trusted in a “no one scores, wink-wink” scenario. 

FINAL TAKE: If Algeria could get Austria to settle for a scoreless draw, they would take that deal — but why would Das Boot take that deal since it does not help them (other than ensure they do not lose by two goals). Is it possible we get 90 minutes of zero activity? Yes. Is it likely? I just don’t think so — especially for two teams whose goal was to just make the Knockout Stage, with a deep run a distant dream. Punting for a scoreless draw significantly damages the glory of the achievement. When Rangnick was asked yesterday if he would instruct his players to simply settle for the nil-nil draw, he replied: No, definitely not. Once we start, we will know, but it will not influence our match. ... If we have a draw tomorrow, we can go on, but we cannot go into a match and just say, 'We'll play for a draw.'" Added Austria midfielder Konrad Laimer: "We go out, we want to win the game. It doesn't matter who we face.” Laimer makes a good point because the third-place round sees Switzerland in the Round of 32, then potentially Portugal or Colombia in the Round of 16 (depending on which team takes first place in Group K). Is it really worth it to be underdogs in all those scenarios to avoid being an underdog against Spain? Come on, it was already Austria once that was tarnished with the Disgrace of Gijon! They are now going to do it again? I am so skeptical. Here’s what Algeria manager Vladimir Petkovic said about all this: "There is no 'if' or 'but' in football, we have to face our opponents always the same way, with a strong desire to perform well and a great will to win. We'll see what happens after the match, but to advance and realize our ambitions we must first earn it by trying to win the game." Of course, all these guys could be lying and saying the right thing to the media. The bottom line is that even if both teams try to lose their honor by playing for the scoreless draw, if one player even accidentally scores, then all proverbial bets are off since the other side will immediately become desperate to score. UPDATE: With Congo’s victory in the second slate of matches today, Iran now clings to the final third-place Knockout Stage spot with three points and a zero net goal differential — meaning a loss for either team here eliminates them from the tournament. It’s a pure Prisoner’s Dilemma now: both teams benefit from agreeing to the draw, but because one side could decide to increase their odds of reaching the Knockout Stage by scoring a goal (and avoid the disaster of losing the game), neither of these team can trust each other to act in their mutual interest. Like the two criminals in separate boxes at the police department, while shutting up is in their collective interest, each person will be incentivized to cut a deal to lessen the worst case scenario of the potential police charges — and the odds of someone blinking and making a deal increase since only the first person who does this will be rewarded with the lesser charges. 25* World Cup Group J Total of the Year with Over the Total in the match between Austria (225447) and Algeria (225448). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:05 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Washington Nationals (977) and the Baltimore Orioles (978). THE SITUATION: Washington (41-42) has lost four games in a row after their 3-1 loss on the road against the Orioles yesterday. Baltimore (39-44) snapped a two-game losing streak with the win. 

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Nationals have played 10 of their last 13 games Over the Total after failing to score more than three runs in their last game. They have also played 19 of their last 28 games Over the Total with the Total set in the 9-9.5 range. And in their last 43 games played at night, 30 of those contests have finished Over the Total. They give the ball to Foster Griffin, who has an 8-2 record with a 3.15 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP in 16 starts. The deeper sabermetrics indicate that he is probably overachieving — mostly because his opponent’s Batting Average for the Balls put Into Play (BABIP) against him is currently at an unsustainable .248. Both his SIERA and xFIP project he should be giving up about another half-run per game, with ERA projections of 3.65, respectively. His expected ERA (xERA) from Statcast, which incorporates exit velocity and hard-hit rate into the otherwise fielding-independent data, sits at 4.10. Now he faces an Orioles lineup that ranks fifth in MLB this month in weighted On-Base Average and weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed pitchers. Baltimore has played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total after not allowing more than three runs in their last game. The Over is also 7-3-1 in their last 11 games at home. Additionally, the Orioles have played 22 of their last 34 games Over the Total against teams with a losing record, including 10 of those 14 games played at home. They have played 31 of their last 49 games Over the Total when listed in the +/- 125 price range, including 16 of those 25 games played at home. They have also played 13 of their last 21 games Over the Total against teams from the National League. They counter with Brandon Young, who has a 6-2 record with a 3.07 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP in 12 starts. His deeper sabermetrics call for regression as well. Both his SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 4.81 and 4.72 moving forward. His xERA sits at 4.25. He’s another starting pitcher getting by a low BABIP of .265 to help generate his good numbers. While he was striking out 32.8% of the batters he faced in the minor leagues this season, that strikeout rate has dropped to 17.1% since being called up to the majors. 

FINAL TAKE: The Nationals rank 10th in MLB since May 1st in both weighted On-Base Average and weighted Runs Created on the road against right-handed pitchers — and they have played 37 of their last 54 games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. 25* MLB Interleague Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Washington Nationals (977) and the Baltimore Orioles (978). Best of luck for us — Frank.