Frank Sawyer

FRANK’S CUTTING ROOM FLOOR FOR THURSDAY, 9/21:

My “Cutting Room Floor” plays are the situations I considered the closest to being worthy of investment but did not make the “final cut” for my official plays today for subscribers. The last play I cut for Thursday is with Over the Total in the game between Georgia State and Coastal Carolina. Georgia State (3-0) has won their first three games this season after a 41-25 victory at Charlotte as a 5.5-point favorite last Saturday. The Panthers have played 10 of their last 15 games Over the Total in the first half of the season after that game finished above the 52-point total. They go back on the road where they have played 8 of their last 13 games Over the Total. Coastal Carolina (2-1) has won two games in a row after their 66-7 win against Duquesne as a 34.5-point favorite on Saturday. The Chanticleers enjoyed a +3 net turnover margin in that game — and they played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total after a game where they had a +2 or better net turnover margin. They stay at home where they have played 10 of their last 15 home games Over the Total when favored. Take the Over. Best of luck — Frank.

Frank Sawyer’s Hollywood Sports is on a 9 of 11 (82%) All-Sports run with their highest-rated 25* plays which included CA$HING their 25* NFL Monday Night Football Game of the Month with Pittsburgh’s UPSET WIN against Cleveland! Frank is on a 115 of 185 (62%) NFL run with featured 25*/20*/10* plays — and now he furthers his 7 of 10 (70%) NFL Game of the Month/Year mark with his 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Game of the Month for tonight’s NY Giants-San Francisco ATS winner on Amazon Prime at 8:15 PM ET! DO NOT MISS OUT!

Frank is on a 26 of 38 (68%) NFL TOTALS TEAR with featured 25*/20*/10* plays after losing the Cleveland-Pittsburgh Under on Monday to maintain his 60 of 91 (66%) NFL Totals featured plays mark! Frank has 23 NFL PRIME TIME SWEEPS since last fall — now he furthers his 88 of 131 (67%) NFL Prime Time mark with tonight’s NY Giants-San Francisco O/U winner! CA$H-IN Frank’s Thursday Night Discounted Deal — IT’S A STEAL!

At 7:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Georgia State Panthers (303) plus the points versus the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (304). THE SITUATION: Georgia State (3-0) has won their first three games of the season with their 41-25 victory at Charlotte as a 5.5-point favorite on Saturday. Coastal Carolina (2-1) has won two straight games after their 66-7 victory against Duquesne as a 34.5-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PANTHERS PLUS THE POINTS: The Chanticleers have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after winning two of their last three games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after scoring 37 or more points in their last game. And while that game finished Over the 56-point Total, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 home games after a game that finished Over the Total. After 30 victories in the previous three seasons, will this program experience a drop-off after Jamey Caldwell took the head coaching job at Liberty? The cupboard is not empty with 30 seniors or super sixth-year seniors returning led by quarterback Grayson McCall, the three-time Sun Belt Conference Player of the Year. But despite their 6-2 conference record, the Chanticleers got outgained by -20 Yards-Per-Game against Sun Belt opponents. North Carolina State offensive coordinator Tim Beck got tapped as their new head coach — but this team will go as far as their defense can play well. Six starters return to a unit switching to a 4-3 formation after ranking 110th in the FBS by allowing 31.8 Points-Per-Gams and 101s in the nation by giving up 418.0 Yards-Per-Game. This team won all five of their games decided by one-scoring possession — and that will be difficult to come close to replicating if the defense does not improve. While they held the Dukes to only 347 yards last week, their two FBS opponents, UCLA and Jacksonville State both generated more than 400 yards against them. Georgia State has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after a point spread victory. They enjoyed a +2 net turnover margin against the 49ers — and they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games after posting a +2 or better net turnover margin in their last contest. After three straight winning seasons, the Panthers dropped to 4-8 last year. Is this team trending in the wrong direction in the seventh season under head coach Shawn Elliott — or were they simply snake-bit by losing all five of their games decided by seven points or less by a combined 18 points? One-third of the roster has turned over either from transfers or exhausted eligibility — but senior dual-threat quarterback Darren Grainger is back after rushing for 908 non-sacking rushing yards and tossing 19 touchdown passes with only four interceptions. So far so good — but this will be the team’s biggest test so far this season. Georgia State has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games on the road after a point spread victory. They have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games on the road — and they habit covered the point spread in 12 of their last 15 road games with the Total set in the 56.5-63 point range.

FINAL TAKE: Coastal Carolina has failed to cover the pint spray in 8 of their last 9 games when favored in the 3.5-10 point range — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight home games when listed the 3.5-7 point range. 8* CFB Georgia State-Coastal Carolina ESPN Special with the Georgia State Panthers (303) plus the points versus the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (304). Best of luck for us — Frank.  

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New York Giants (301) and the San Francisco 49ers (302). THE SITUATION: New York (1-1) rebounded from their embarrassing loss to Dallas on Sunday Night Football with a 31-28 victory at Arizona as a 4.5-point favorite last Sunday. San Francisco (2-0) is unbeaten in their first two games after their 30-23 victory on the road against the Los Angeles Rams as a 7.5-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Giants will be without running back Saquon Barkley and left tackle Andrew Thomas due to injuries tonight — and that is not ideal for an offense that had not scored a single point until they exploded for 31 second-half points last week against the woeful Cardinals. New York has played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a win by six points or less. They have also played off their last 17 games on the road Under the Total after a straight-up win where they did not cover the point spread. They have also played 17 of their last 21 games Under the Total after a win on the road by three points or less. The Giants’ defense is playing well as they are only allowing 322 YPG. Remember that the first two touchdowns that Dallas scored against them in that 40-0 debacle were from a blocked field goal attempt and then an interception returned for a TD. To address their run defense that ranked 27th in the NFL by allowing 144.2 rushing Yards-Per-Game, they signed defensive tackles A’Shawn Robinson and Rakeem Nunez-Roches along with linebacker Bobby Okereke in free agency who all have good reputations as run stuffers. In that opening-week loss to the Cowboys, the Giants did hold Dallas to just 122 rushing yards on 20 carries. San Francisco has played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a win against an NFC West rival in their last game. They have also played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total in the first month of the season. The loss of right tackle Mike McGlinchey to Denver in free agency may haunt this team since ample time is an essential requirement for the Shanahan offense to purr — and quarterback Brock Purdy holds on to the ball a little longer than Jimmy Garoppolo. Wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk is questionable tonight with a shoulder injury — he was considered 50-50% to play yesterday and will be a game-time decision tonight. Even if he plays, he may not be 100% — and he is important to the offense as a legitimate deep threat who opens up the middle of the field. This will be the Niners' first home game this season — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total at home when favored in the 7.5-14 point range.

FINAL TAKE: The 49ers have played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total when playing on a Thursday night. 10* NFL Thursday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the New York Giants (301) and the San Francisco 49ers (302). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the New York Giants (301) plus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (302). THE SITUATION: New York (1-1) rebounded from their embarrassing loss to Dallas on Sunday Night Football with a 31-28 victory at Arizona as a 4.5-point favorite last Sunday. San Francisco (2-0) is unbeaten in their first two games after their 30-23 victory on the road against the Los Angeles Rams as a 7.5-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GIANTS PLUS THE POINTS: We bet numbers rather than teams — and expecting the 49ers to win by more than 10 points is probably too much to ask. New York certainly qualifies as an ugly underdog after the humiliating 40-0 loss on national television to the Cowboys — and then they continued to look terrible in the first half against the woeful Cardinals by going into the locker room trailing by a 20-0 score. But the Giants deserve credit for picking themselves off the mat by outscoring Arizona by a 31-7 score in the second half to secure the victory. Head coach Brian Daboll took over the play-calling of the offense in the second half — and that unit clearly got energized by that decision. Quarterback Daniel Jones completed 26 of 37 passes for 321 yards with two touchdown passes — and he added another 59 rushing yards with another touchdown. I think everyone understands that the Giants were incredibly fortunate to reach the Divisional Round of the NFC playoffs last year after getting outscored and outgained in yardage during the regular season. Posting an 8-4-1 record in games decided by one scoring possession got them into the playoffs — and they had an opportune first-round draw against a Minnesota team that had an even more improbable 11-0 record in games decided by one scoring possession. But last year’s good fortunes do not disqualify this team from improving the 8-9 team that the underlying analytics grading this team out as. Daboll immediately fixed Jones’ turnover problems as the fifth-year pro threw only five interceptions — and his 1.1% interception rate was the best in the NFL for regular starting QBs. Can the team can add team speed, find more playmakers on offense to stretch the field, and improve their run defense? If so, then they could certainly develop into a more deserving playoff team this season. Football Outsiders' weighted DVOA metrics ranked them as the seventh-best team in the league, for what that is worth. To address their run defense that ranked 27th in the NFL by allowing 144.2 rushing Yards-Per-Game, they signed defensive tackles A’Shawn Robinson and Rakeem Nunez-Roches along with linebacker Bobby Okereke in free agency who all have good reputations as run stuffers. In that opening-week loss to the Cowboys, the Giants did hold Dallas to just 122 rushing yards on 20 carries. A healthier wide receiver room will help with playmakers to help Jones in the passing game — and they traded for Darren Waller from Las Vegas to give him a viable number-one target. He led the team in targets last week while catching six balls for 76 yards. New York drafted Jalin Hyatt from Tennessee in the third round in the draft last spring — and Daboll got him going in the second half last week with the deep threat catching two balls for 89 yards. Going inside the numbers of that Cowboys debacle, the Giants started well by driving down the field for a field goal opportunity. But after that kick got blocked and returned for a special teams touchdown for Dallas — and then Jones threw a pick-six later in the first quarter — the momentum in that game became overwhelming for the Cowboys who could then pin their ears back and rush the passer to protect their big lead (in rainy weather). There are not many NFL teams who were not going to get blown out after such an auspicious start against this Dallas team. And New York was still hungover from that bad game traveling out west to play a bad Cardinals team. But I expect their best game of the season in a situation where no one expects them to compete. I like that they stayed out west this week to prepare for this game. The defense is playing well — they are only allowing 322 YPG. Despite getting outscored and outgained last year, only three of their regular season losses were by double-digits. They have not been given any favors regarding injuries with running back Saquon Barkley, left tackle Andrew Thomas, and linebacker Azeez Ojulari all out for this game. But backup running back Matt Breida is a veteran who is a capable backup. The Giants have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games after a win on the road by three points or less. Expect New York to get off to a better start in this one after two straight disastrous first halves — they have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 22 games after allowing 17 or more points in the first half of two straight games. The Giants averaged 8.28 Yards-Per-Play last week (even with the Barkley injury) — and they have covered the point spread in 22 of their last 31 road games after generating at least 6.5 YPP in their last game. And in their last 10 games on the road with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range, they have covered the point spread 7 times. San Francisco may be a bit overvalued coming into this third game. They easily beat a Pittsburgh team that is experiencing major issues on the offensive side of the ball. And while the Rams are playing better than expected this season, it is not a good sign for the 49ers that they were outgained by that Los Angeles team by 21 net yards. The Niners are benefitting from winning the turnover battle in their first two games with a +3 net turnover margin — and that is something Daboll will preach to his team to not play into. The 49ers may have the best roster in the NFL but the biggest question remains: how good will their play be at the quarterback position? For those of us who handicapped every Brock Purdy game when he played in college at Iowa State, we appreciate why he was Mr. Irrelevant in the NFL draft. With 48 career starts, he has tons of experience which helps his decision-making. And because he is accurate in the short and intermediate passing game, perhaps he is a great fit for the Kyle Shanahan offense. But he lacks arm strength for a dynamic vertical passing game — and he threw too many interceptions for the Cyclones when asked to be a gunslinger. In the playoffs last season, Seattle, Dallas, and then Philadelphia exposed his tendency to bail to his left when under pressure (and it contributed to his wrist injury). The loss of right tackle Mike McGlinchey to Denver in free agency may haunt this team since ample time is an essential requirement for the Shanahan offense to purr — and Purdy holds on to the ball a little longer than Jimmy Garoppolo. Wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk is questionable tonight with a shoulder injury — he was considered 50-50% to play yesterday and will be a game-time decision tonight. Even if he plays, he may not be 100% — and he is important to the offense as a legitimate deep threat who opens up the middle of the field. This will be the Niners' first home game this season — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 40 of their last 62 home games after playing their last two games on the road.

FINAL TAKE: This situation is similar to when the Giants played in Dallas on a short week on Thanksgiving as a 10-point underdog — and they covered the point spread in a 28-20 loss in that game. New York has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games played on a Thursday — and San Francisco has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games played on a Thursday. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Game of the Month with the New York Giants (301) plus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (302). Best of luck for us — Frank.