Frank Sawyer
Frank Sawyer
Frank Sawyer is on a 16 of 22 (73%) NCAA Tourney run - and he furthers his 6 of 8 (75%) NCAA Tournament Game of the Year run with his 25* CBB NCAA Tournament Elite Eight Underdog of the Year today!
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YESTERDAY'S PLAYS
| Match Up | Pick | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 76ers vs Suns | 76ers +3 -110 | Free | 105-125 | Loss | -110 | Show |
| Connecticut vs Gonzaga | UNDER 154 -110 | Premium | 82-54 | Win | 100 | Show |
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PICKS IN PROGRESS
At 2:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Creighton Bluejays (657) and the San Diego State Aztecs (658) in the Elite Eight of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Creighton (24-12) has won six of their last seven games with their 86-75 victory against Princeton as a 10-point favorite on Friday. San Diego State (30-6) has won seven games in a row after their 71-64 win against Alabama as a 6.5-point underdog on Friday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the KFC Yum! Center in Louisville, Kentucky.
REASONS TO TAKE THE UNDER THE TOTAL: San Diego State found themselves down 48-39 with just 11:30 minutes left in the second half to a Crimson Tide team that many observers considered the best team in the country. But head coach Brian Dutcher called on his team to rededicate themselves to their efforts on defense to then create scoring opportunities — and the Aztecs went on a 12-0 run to seize control of that game. They held the heavily reliant Alabama scoring attack to just 3 of 21 shooting from behind the arc and a 32.4% field goal percentage overall. In the end, they held an Alabama team that was scoring 82.3 Points-Per-Game to more than 18 points below their season average. They have played 14 of their last 17 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 7 straight Unders after a point spread victory. San Diego State usually has a strong defense — but this year’s team has taken things to another level. They have held seven straight opponents to no better than a 38.6% shooting percentage — and they have not allowed more than 64 points in those seven games. San Diego State ranks fourth in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they rank third in the nation by limiting their opponents to 28.1% shooting from behind the arc. Their defense leads the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency in their last ten games away from home. Creighton made 58.2% of their shots on Friday in their victory against Princeton — but that was the best shooting effort in their last 12 games. They have benefited from a relatively easy road to the Elite Eight against NC State, Baylor, and then the Ivy League champions. Only the Wolfpack rank in the top 100 in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they are just 82nd in the nation in that metric. This is a very steep step in competition for the Bluejays when they have the basketball. San Diego State outrebounds their opponents by +4.6 rebounds per game — and Creighton has played 15 of their last 21 games after 15 games into the season Under the Total against opponents who out-refund their opponents by +4.0 or more RPG. The Bluejays play a similar drop-coverage style on defense as the Aztecs that should have success. Creighton has the second lowest-foul rate in the nation — and they are 11th in the nation by limiting their opponents to rebounding 23.2% of their missed shots.
FINAL TAKE: San Diego State has played 5 of their last 7 games in the NCAA Tournament Under the Total. 8* CBB Creighton-San Diego State CBS-TV O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Creighton Bluejays (657) and the San Diego State Aztecs (658). Best of luck for us — Frank.
At 2:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the San Diego State Aztecs (658) plus the points versus the Creighton Bluejays (657) in the Elite Eight of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: San Diego State (30-6) has won seven games in a row after their 71-64 win against Alabama as a 6.5-point underdog on Friday. Creighton (24-12) has won six of their last seven games with their 86-75 victory against Princeton as a 10-point favorite on Friday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the KFC Yum! Center in Louisville, Kentucky.
REASONS TO TAKE THE AZTECS PLUS THE POINTS: San Diego State found themselves down 48-39 with just 11:30 minutes left in the second half to a Crimson Tide team that many observers considered the best team in the country. But head coach Brian Dutcher called on his team to rededicate themselves to their efforts on defense to then create scoring opportunities — and the Aztecs went on a 12-0 run to seize control of that game. They held the heavily reliant Alabama scoring attack to just 3 of 21 shooting from behind the arc and a 32.4% field goal percentage overall. San Diego State usually has a strong defense — but this year’s team has taken things to another level. They have held seven straight opponents to no better than a 38.6% shooting percentage — and they have not allowed more than 64 points in those seven games. The Aztecs have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 19 games after not allowing more than 65 points in their last contest — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after holding three or more opponents in a row to no better than 40% shooting. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread win. San Diego State ranks fourth in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they rank third in the nation by limiting their opponents to 28.1% shooting from behind the arc. Dutcher’s team has two significant edges in this game: depth and experience. The Aztecs have a nine-player rotation without any drop-off in talent — they rank 31st in the minute bench minutes. This reliable second unit allows the team to play so physically — and it will certainly help with just a day of rest between games. This is also a very experienced team with seven seniors and two juniors in that regular rotation. One of the power rankings systems I rely on places San Diego State as the ninth-best team in the nation — and the fifth-best team over their last ten games. Those analytics rank them the 11th-best team in the nation when playing on the road led by their defense that leads the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency in their last ten games away from home. They are 13-3-2 ATS in their last 18 games against teams with a winning record. Creighton made 58.2% of their shots on Friday in their victory against Princeton — but that was the best shooting effort in their last 12 games. I appreciate that this Bluejays team is better than their record given the midseason injury to Ryan Kalkbrenner that kept him out of three of their 12 losses this year. But Creighton has benefited from a relatively easy road to the Elite Eight against NC State, Baylor, and then the Ivy League champions. Only the Wolfpack rank in the top 100 in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they are just 82nd in the nation in that metric. This is a very steep step in competition for the Bluejays when they have the basketball. As it is, Creighton has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after winning six or seven of their last eight games. And after their 85-76 win against Baylor last weekend, they have also failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games on the road after playing two straight games where they scored 75 or more points. Depth is a problem for head coach Greg McDermott’s team as they only have a six-man rotation after the injury to Mason Miller in the NC State game last week. This is a young group with three sophomores and a freshman joining a junior and a senior in their rotation. Stylistically, I worry that the Bluejays lack a Plan B if their 3-pointers are not falling. Like Alabama, they live by the 3-point shots with 42.0% of their field goal attempts coming from behind the arc, ranking 63rd in the nation. But Creighton does not go for offensive rebounds — they pull down only 25.2% of their missed shots, ranking 283rd in the nation. They only force turnovers in 13.9% of their opponent’s possessions, ranking 359th in the nation. San Diego State is the wrong opponent to rely almost exclusively on 3-point efficiency — as the Crimson Tide found out. The power rankings referenced above rate the Bluejays as the 14th-best team in the nation — and they fall to 18th in their last ten games. And in their last ten games on the road, Creighton ranks only 22nd in the nation due to a defense that is giving up +7.7 more points per 100 possessions during that span than they are at home. I think the wrong team is favored in this one — but I am quite happy to take the points for some insurance (and I consider money-line bets with underdogs to be giving away money).
FINAL TAKE: San Diego State will have revenge on their minds after losing to Creighton in the Big Dance by a 72-69 score in overtime last March. This veteran team has been carrying that disappointment with them for over a year. The Aztecs have covered the point spread in 5 straight games on a neutral court — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games in the NCAA tournament. 25* CBB Elite Eight Underdog of the Year with the San Diego State Aztecs (658) plus the points versus the Creighton Bluejays (657). Best of luck for us — Frank.
SERVICE BIO
Frank Sawyer offers unmatched handicapping analysis over a diverse array of sports for his Hollywood Sports clients. Frank combines his over twenty years of experience as a professional sports handicapper with the drive to outwork his competition. Why invest in a sports service? Frank answers that question with a proven methodology. His model for success starts by investing a significant amount of time analyzing each team in the sports he handicaps to serve as a foundation for that season. Frank then combines his team assessments with empirical situational handicapping angles along with the latest in cutting edge analytics to identify value in the betting line. Decades of handicapping experience along with his unrelenting focus are the qualities that Frank offers his clients. Frank produces extensive reports that detail his decisions. He does this for two reasons: (1) clients deserve to see the work that goes into a conclusion and (2) Frank’s attention to detail within these reports validates to his clients that he continues to work tirelessly to unearth winning angles. With that ambition in mind, Frank has expanded his areas of interest and scrutiny to include the English Premier League, the PGA Tour, the WNBA, and UFC/Boxing in recent years to go along with the major four sports of football, basketball, baseball, and hockey along with the Canadian Football League, Horse Racing, and World Cup Soccer that he has specialized in since he began Hollywood Sports in 1997. Frank believes long-term success involves not only continuing to dig deeper into the sports that he covers but also in expanding his horizons with new events that can provide additional tools in his handicapping toolbox with the goal of rewarding his clients for their loyalty over the years.
Frank uses a rating an 8*, 10*, 20*, 25* rating system that also serves a guide for money management: 10* plays warrant a standard bet (and 8* plays warrant 80% of a standard bet); 20* plays should see a doubling of that standard bet; 25* plays are Frank’s highest-rated play with the recommendation to invest 2.5 times the standard bet. For Frank’s futures reports or for events with odds such as PGA events or horse races, Frank usually offers three recommendations in his betting report: his Best Bet for the event; his Top Overlay Bet which presents his best value play relative to the odds for the event: and his Long Shot Bet for a big underdog offer value with its potential big payout. Frank’s signature play his “A-List* release which is reserved for rare and elite betting opportunities.
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