Frank Sawyer

FRANK’S CUTTING ROOM FLOOR FOR WEDNESDAY, 12/4:

My “Cutting Room Floor” plays are the situations I considered the closest to being worthy of investment but did not make the “final cut” for my official plays today for subscribers. The last play I cut for Wednesday is with Under the Total in the game between Baylor and UConn. Baylor (5-2) has won five of their last six games after their 91-60 win against New Orleans as a 38-point favorite last Wednesday. The Bears go back on the road where they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 140s. They have also played 5 of their last 6 road games Under the Total as an underdog of up to six points or as a pick ‘em. UConn (5-3) snapped a three-game losing streak with a 99-45 victory against Maryland-Eastern Shore as a 40.5-point favorite on Saturday. The Huskies have played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 55 points in their last game. They have also played 17 of their last 25 games Under the Total against teams winning 60-80% of their games. Take the Under. Best of luck — Frank.

Frank Sawyer’s Hollywood Sports is on an 11 of 14 (79%) All-Sports run with featured 25*/20*/10* plays after DELIVERING their 25* NHL Game of the Month last night on Calgary! Frank is on an 8 of 9 (89%) CBB run to fuel his 24 of 32 (75%) CBB featured plays run — and now he has tonight’s Baylor-UConn ATS winner on FS1-TV at 6:30 PM ET! WATCH and WIN — and BANK on Frank!

At 6:30 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Connecticut Huskies (680) minus the points versus the Baylor Bears (679). THE SITUATION: UConn (5-3) snapped their three-game losing streak with a 99-45 victory against Maryland-Eastern Shore as a 40.5-point favorite last Saturday. Baylor (5-2) has won five of their last six games after their 91-60 victory against New Orleans as a 38-point favorite last Wednesday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HUSKIES MINUS THE POINTS: UConn suffered a disastrous three-game run in the Maui Invitational last week — but those losses deserve context. They lost in overtime against Memphis after some controversial officiating. The refs then played a role the next night in a one-point loss against Colorado. After those two emotional losses, they came out flat in their third game in three days against a Dayton team that ranks 32nd in the nation using Ken Pomeroy’s metrics. Unquestionably, head coach Dan Hurley has some work to do with his team’s play on the defensive end of the court after all three of those teams made at least 50% of their shots — losing Donovan Clingan, Tristan Newton, and Stephon Castle from last year’s team is a challenge. But now Hurley has had a week to get to work on fixing these issues. They held Maryland-Eastern Shore to just 30% shooting which was a season-best for them defensively. Perhaps this team is due for a visit from the Regression Gods? They do rank 27th  in the nation by keeping their opponents off the 3-point line as just 32.5% of their opponent’s shots from behind the arc — but these opponents are nailing 36.3% of these shots, ranking 298th. And while the Bears rank 38.1% of their shots from 3-point range, the Huskies have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against teams who are making at least 37% of their 3-pointers. Additionally, UConn has covered the point spread in 32 of their last 43 games after beating their previous opponent by 15 or more points. They have covered the point spread in 24 of their last 33 games after scoring 85 or more points — and they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games after not allowing 55 or more points. Back on their home court, the Huskies have covered the point spread in 24 of their last 38 games including four of their five games at home this season. This is a good matchup for UConn. Baylor struggles on the defensive of the court where they rank 74th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. The Bears’ opponents have an effective field goal percentage of 56.2%, ranking 231st. They are allowing their opponents to make 41.0% of their 3-pointers, ranking 355th. They are also letting their opponents make 52.3% of their shots inside the arc, ranking 209th — and the Huskies rank third in the nation by making 63.9% of their 2-pointers. UConn feasts on teams like this. Baylor allows their opponents to make 47.4% of their shots overall — and the Huskies have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams with an opponent’s field goal percentage of 45% or higher. Baylor has lost to their two best opponents, Gonzaga and Tennessee. Their best win was against St. John’s — and it took two overtimes. The Bears have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games away from home after a win at home by 20 or more points. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games as an underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games away from home as the dog. And while the Huskies are giving up only 63.3 Points-Per-Game, Baylor has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games on the road against teams who are not allowing more than 64 PPG. UConn should have a big edge on the glass tonight. While the Bears rank 10th in the nation by pulling down 39.5% of their missed shots, the Huskies rank 21st by holding their opponents to rebounding just 23.8% of their misses. But on the other end is where UConn should dominate. They rebound 35.9% of their missed shots — and Baylor ranks 211th by allowing their opponents to pull down 30.6% of their misses.

FINAL TAKE: The Huskies will be without Alex Karaban tonight which is not ideal — but they still have the depth edge against the Bears’ thin rotation that only goes seven or maybe eight deep. UConn has covered the point spread in 32 of their last 47 games when favored — and they have covered the point spread in 33 of their last 42 games against teams outside the Big 12. 20* CBB Baylor-UConn FS1-TV Special with the Connecticut Huskies (680) minus the points versus the Baylor Bears (679). Best of luck for us — Frank.