Jack Jones

Jack's Free Pick Wednesday: Chicago White Sox +131

The Chicago White Sox will be highly motivated to avoid the sweep after dropping the first two games of this series to the Minnesota Twins.  This is nice value we are getting on the White Sox as road underdogs to do just that.

While Erick Fedde doesn't have great numbers this season, he does love facing the Twins.  He is 2-0 with a 1.17 ERA and 0.70 WHIP in four career starts against them, allowing just 3 earned runs and 16 base runners in 23 innings with 25 K's.

Taj Bradley has solid numbers on the season, but he just returned from the IL and has allowed 5 earned runs in 9 innings in two starts since his return.  He does not enjoy facing the White Sox, either.  Bradley is 0-1 with a 11.57 ERA and 2.23 WHIP in three career starts against them, allowing 15 earned runs and 26 base runners in 11 2/3 innings with just 8 K's.  Bet the White Sox Wednesday.

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20* MLB Wednesday Early ANNIHILATOR on Marlins/Nationals OVER 8

Two dead nuts OVER teams square off in Game 3 of this series today.  The Nationals are 39-20-3 OVER in all games this season scoring 5.3 runs per game and allowing 5.4 runs per game.  The Marlins are 38-21-3 OVER in all games this season scoring 4.3 runs per game and allowing 4.6 runs per game.  This total of 8 is too short for Game 3 today.

Max Meyer has big home/road splits this season.  He has posted a 4.78 ERA and 1.33 WHIP in five road starts.  He allowed 5 earned runs in 6 innings of a 9-7 loss to the Mets in his last start.  He allowed 5 earned runs and 2 homers in 5 2/3 innings in his last start against the Nationals as well.  This Miami bullpen has a 4.85 ERA on the road this season.

The Nationals will make this a bullpen game starting with Andrew Alvarez, who has posted a 4.02 ERA allowing 7 earned runs in 15 2/3 innings in relief this season.  The Nationals have one of the worst bullpens in baseball with a 4.74 ERA on the season and a 5.30 ERA at home.

The OVER is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings with 10 or more combined runs in seven of those 10 meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* MLB Wednesday Night Line Mistake on Rangers/Cardinals OVER 8

The Rangers are 4-1 OVER in their last five games overall and really starting to rake.  They have scored 6 runs or more in four of their last five games overall.  The Cardinals really profile as an OVER team scoring 4.3 runs per game and allowing 4.5 runs per game this season.

The OVER is 6-2 in the last eight meetings between the Cardinals and Rangers with 9 or more combined runs in six of those eight meetings.  That includes a 7-4 win by the Rangers and 11 combined runs on 22 hits last night.  It should be another slug fest tonight given the profile of both starting pitchers.

MacKenzie Gore has been awful on the road this season, going 1-4 with a 5.81 ERA and 1.49 WHIP in seven starts away from home while allowing 20 earned runs in 31 innings.  Gore does not enjoy facing the Cardinals, going 1-2 with a 7.00 ERA and 1.74 WHIP in five career starts against them, allowing 21 earned runs, 6 homers and 47 base runners in 27 innings.

Andre Pallante is 4-4 with a 4.50 ERA and 1.44 WHIP in 10 starts for the Cardinals this season.  He has been at his worst at home, going 1-4 with a 5.52 ERA and 1.61 WHIP in six starts, allowing 19 earned runs, 5 homers and 50 base runners in 31 innings.  Pallante allowed 3 earned runs and 9 base runners in 5 innings in his lone career start against Texas.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* Interleague PLAY OF THE DAY on Blue Jays/Braves OVER 8

The Braves have one of the best offenses in baseball scoring 5.3 runs per game this season.  The Braves are 10-4-1 OVER in their last 15 games overall with 8 or more combined runs in 11 of those 15 games, and 9 or more in 10 of them.  This total of 8 is too short for a game involving the Braves right now.

The Blue Jays have gotten a lot healthier and are starting to rake because of it.  They have scored 5 runs or more in three of their last four, and six of their last 11 games overall.  Both offenses should have success against these two starting pitchers tonight.

Patrick Corbin has been one of the worst starters in baseball over the last handful of seasons.  He isn't magically fixed in Toronto despite having some of the best numbers of his career to this point with a 3.65 ERA and 1.36 WHIP in 10 starts.  This will be one of his toughest tests of the season.  Corbin is 5-12 with a 4.76 ERA and 1.55 WHIP in 21 career starts against the Braves, and 1-7 with a 4.90 ERA and 1.57 WHIP in 12 career road starts in Atlanta.

Grant Holmes is 3-2 with a 3.95 ERA and 1.33 WHIP in 11 starts for the Braves this season.  He has a propensity to give up the long ball allowing 25 earned runs and 11 homers in 57 innings.  The Blue Jays will do enough damage on him to aid us in cashing this OVER 8 ticket tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* MLB Wednesday Night BLOWOUT on Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 (+105)

The Padres are 1-7 in their last eight games overall while scoring an average of just 2.6 runs per game during this stretch.  It will not get any easier for them tonight facing arguably the best starter in baseball in Cristopher Sanchez.

Sanchez is 6-2 with a 1.47 ERA in 12 starts this season and 4-1 with a 0.85 ERA in eight home starts.  He carries a franchise record 44 2/3-inning scoreless streak into tonight's game and will be highly motivated to keep it rolling to try and break the MLB record.  I like his chances considering he's 4-0 with a 0.95 ERA in his last four starts against the Padres, allowing just 3 earned runs in 28 1/3 innings.

Walker Buehler is an absolute gas can.  He is 3-3 with a 4.88 ERA in 11 starts this season.  Buehler has been really poor away from Petco Park, posting a 8.04 ERA and 1.98 WHIP in four road starts while allowing 14 earned runs and 31 base runners in 15 2/3 innings.  He is 0-2 with a 4.82 ERA in five career starts against the Phillies, allowing 20 runs, 15 earned, and 6 homers in 28 innings.  Bet the Phillies on the Run Line Wednesday.

20* Knicks/Spurs Game 1 No-Brainer on New York +5

The New York Knicks are 11-0 SU & 10-1 ATS in their last 11 playoff games with 10 of those wins coming by double-digits.  That includes six consecutive road wins all by double-digits and by an average of 26.8 points per game.

It's clear the Knicks are showing what they are capable of when they stay healthy for a full postseason.  They are a more veteran team that realizes this is their opportunity to pounce.  And they really haven't benefited from injuries to their opponents as they have mostly been healthy throughout this run.

What's most impressive with the Knicks is just how efficient they have been offensively in shooting 47.7% or better in 11 consecutive games.  They are simply unstoppable on that end right now, and I think the Spurs are vulnerable defensively.  I also like the rest advantage the Knicks will have after sweeping the Cavs on May 25th.

The spot is a bad one for these young Spurs.  They just slayed Goliath, taking out the defending champion Oklahoma City Thunder in Game 7 on the road.  They celebrated like they won the championship.  I think they will be a little flat in Game 1 of the NBA Finals as a result.

The Spurs benefited from the Thunder losing two of their top four scorers to injury in that series in Jalen Williams and Ajay Mitchell.  The Thunder really struggled offensively as a result by not having those two playmakers on the court.  Nobody except Shai could get his own shot, making them very easy to defend as the series went on.  The Knicks have killers all over the court, and it will be a shock to the system for the Spurs.

The Knicks went 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS in three meetings with the Spurs during the regular season.  That includes their 124-113 win as 2.5-point favorites on a neutral in the NBA Cup Championship Game.  The Spurs needed a massive comeback in a 134-132 win as 3.5-point home favorites in the rematch two weeks later.  They got 11 3's from Champagnie in that game.  The Knicks came back and blasted the Spurs 114-89 at home as 1-point dogs.

What really stood out in those three meetings was the fact that the Spurs were fully healthy for all three, while the Knicks were without Anunoby in that 2-point road loss.  Wembenyama played in all three meetings.  No question he will be a problem as he always is, but the Knicks handled him well, and Mitchell Robinson is the ace up their sleeve that can defend him just about as well as anyone in the NBA.  The Knicks have elite wing defenders and I give them the advantage everywhere else in this series.  Bet the Knicks in Game 1 Wednesday.