Jack Jones

Jack's Free Pick Tuesday: Reds/Cubs OVER 8

The Cubs are 18-7-2 OVER in their last 27 games overall.  They have gone for 9 or more combined runs in 19 of those 27 games.  They are hitting the cover off the ball scoring 7 runs or more in 11 of their last 21 games, and they are scoring 5.4 runs per game on the season.  

The Reds are 8-2 OVER in their last 10 games overall with 9 or more combined runs in nine of those 10 games.  The total for Game 1 was 11.5 with the wind blowing out, but the total in Game 2 has been set at 8 today, which is too big of an adjustment.  There will only be light winds blowing in at Wrigley Field which shouldn't have much of an impact against hitters.

The Cubs should stay hot at the plate tonight against Andrew Abbott, who is 1-2 with a 5.97 ERA and 1.67 WHIP in seven starts this season.  He has allowed 23 earned runs, 5 homers and 58 base runners in 34 2/3 innings.  Abbott allowed 4 earned runs and 2 homers in 6 2/3 innings in his last start at Wrigley.

Jameson Taillon is 2-1 with a 4.41 ERA in six starts for the Cubs this season.  He has allowed 17 earned runs and a whopping 9 homers in 34 2/3 innings.  The OVER is 4-1 in Taillon's last five starts with 9 or more combined runs in four of them.  The OVER is 6-0 in Abbott's last six starts with 9 or more combined runs in all six.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

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20* Cavs/Pistons Game 1 No-Brainer on OVER 215.5

Both the Cleveland Cavaliers and Detroit Pistons are coming off Game 7's on Sunday.  That means they only had one day in between games to prepare for one another.  That lack of preparation will favor offense, and Game 1's historically have been the highest-scoring games in playoff series mostly for this reason.

The totals for the four regular season meetings between the Cavs and Pistons were set at 231.5, 239.5, 226.5 and 228.5.  This total has been set at 215.5, which is 11 points less than the lowest total and 24 points less than the highest total between these teams in the regular season.  That fact alone shows there's value on the OVER as this is too big of an adjustment down for the playoffs.

And this is basically the first time that both teams have been fully healthy.  Donovan Mitchell missed two of those regular season meetings.  James Harden didn't play in any of them.  Yet the Pistons and Cavs combined for at least 222 at the end of regulation in three of the four regular season meetings.

Both teams benefited from injuries to their opponents in the 1st round that also kept those games more lower scoring than they should have been.  Franz Wagner was injured for the Magic and missed the final three games of that series.  Immanuel Quickley didn't play a single game for the Raptors, and he is their offensive engine.  Brandon Ingram also missed the last couple games due to injury.  Both of these offenses are much more potent than what their opponents saw in Round 1.  Bet the OVER in Game 1 Tuesday.

15* MLB Tuesday Night Line Mistake on Twins/Nationals OVER 9

The forecast will aid us in cashing this OVER 9 ticket between the Twins and Nationals tonight.  Temps will be in the 80's with 15 MPH winds blowing out to center at game time.  There will be steady double-digit winds blowing out to center for all 9 innings.

That Nationals are a dead nuts OVER team going 21-12-2 OVER in all games this season.  They are scoring 5.1 runs per game and allowing 5.6 runs per game.  The Twins are 21-13-1 OVER in all games this season as well.  They are scoring 4.7 runs per game and allowing 4.9 runs per game.

Both starting pitchers are due some ERA regression.  Taj Bradley is 3-1 with a 2.85 ERA and 1.22 WHIP allowing 5 homers in 41 innings.  Cade Cavalli is very fortunate to have a 3.82 ERA when he has a 1.66 WHIP in seven starts this season, allowing 51 base runners in 30 2/3 innings.

These are also two of the worst offenses in baseball so both teams should add runs once these starters exit.  The Twins have a 5.31 ERA as a bullpen while the Nationals have a 4.76 ERA.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* MLB Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on A's/Phillies OVER 9

The forecast will aid us in cashing this OVER 9 ticket between the A's and Phillies tonight.  Temps will be in the 70's with 15-20 MPH winds blowing out to center in Philadelphia.

The A's are really heating up at the plate scoring 5 runs or more in five consecutive games with 11 hits or more in four of them.  They should get to Cristopher Sanchez, who is fortunate to have a 2.90 ERA with a 1.51 WHIP this season allowing 61 base runners in 40 1/3 innings.  Sanchez allowed 3 earned runs and 11 base runners in 4 2/3 innings in his last start against the A's.

The Phillies have scored at least 6 runs in six of their last 1e games and are heating up at the plate as well.  They should hang a big number on Luis Severino, who is 2-2 with a 4.46 ERA and 1.44 WHIP in seven starts this season.  Severino is 1-0 with a 4.50 ERA in his last three starts against the Phillies, allowing 9 earned runs and 5 homers in 18 innings.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on Rangers/Yankees OVER 8.5

The forecast will aid us in cashing this OVER 8.5 ticket between the Rangers and Yankees tonight.  Temps will be in the 70's with 15-20 MPH winds blowing out to left field at hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium.

It was a similar forecast in every game of their 4-game series with the Orioles at home last series.  The OVER went 4-0 with 9, 13, 14 and 13 combined runs.  It will be more of the same tonight.

Rookie Elmer Rodriquez is likely to get rocked for the Yankees as he makes just his 2nd career start.  He allowed 2 earned runs and 8 base runners in 4 innings with just 3 K's in his first start against the Rangers on April 29th.

In fact, Rodriquez was opposite Jacob DeGrom in that April 29th start.  While DeGrom was great in that game at home, it will be a different story for him on the road facing the Yankees with the win blowing out.  The advantage really goes to the hitters getting to see these two starters for the 2nd time in a week.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* MLB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Dodgers/Astros OVER 8

The Houston Astros are a dead nuts OVER team going 24-11-2 OVER in all games this season.  They are scoring 5.0 runs per game and allowing 5.8 runs per game.  They have the worst bullpen in baseball with a 6.22 ERA, and their best reliever in Bryan Abreu likely won't be available tonight after pitching each of the last two days.

The tired Astros will go with Peter Lambert, who is only in the starting rotation due to injuries.  Lambert is 9-21 with a 6.12 ERA and 1.59 WHIP in 259 innings in his career in the big leagues.  He is 0-3 with a 9.73 ERA and 2.07 WHIP in five career starts against the Dodgers, allowing 22 earned runs, 9 homers and 42 base runners in 20 1/3 innings.

The Dodgers are capable of covering this total on their own like they basically did yesterday in a 8-3 victory in Game 1.  They are scoring 5.2 runs per game and should hang a big number on the Astros to pave the way to us cashing this OVER 8 ticket.

Few teams are as familiar with Shohei Ohtani as the Astros.  Ohtani is 3-6 with a 4.02 ERA and 1.27 WHIP in 14 career starts against Houston, including 2-3 with a 4.89 ERA and 1.40 WHIP in seven career road starts against the Astros.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.