Jack Jones

Jack's Free Pick Sunday: Reds/Rockies OVER 11

There is a heat wave across the country and that includes Denver this weekend.  Temps will be in the 90's on Sunday and approaching 100 in the later innings.  It was a similar forecast yesterday when these teams combined for 13 runs and 23 hits, and it will be more of the same Sunday at hitter-friendly Coors Field.  This total of 11 is too short.

Hunter Greene is working his way back from injury for the Reds and will be on a pitch count again.  It has been an ugly comeback thus far for Greene, who is 1-1 with a 6.97 ERA and 1.45 WHIP in two starts while allowing 8 earned runs in 10 1/3 innings.  He is 1-1 with a 8.16 ERA and 1.88 WHIP in three career starts at Coors Field, allowing 13 earned runs and 6 homers in 14 1/3 innings.

Ryan Feltner has gone 3-3 with a 4.55 ERA in 13 starts for the Rockies this season.  He has allowed 32 earned runs and 11 homers in 63 1/3 innings.  Feltner allowed 8 earned runs in 4 1/3 innings of a 13-3 loss to the Reds in his lone career start against them at Coors Field.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

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20* Interleague GAME OF THE WEEK on Washington Nationals -131

The Washington Nationals come out of the All-Star Break motivated after opening 49-50 this season and 4 games back in the wild card.  They have been the best bet on the road in baseball by a wide margin going 29-19 on the highway.  The Nationals are led by one of the best offenses in the league scoring 5.5 runs per game this season.

The A's are 1-10 in their last 11 games overall to fall completely out of contention at 42-55 on the season.  Injuries offensively have been the big story as the A's have been held to 2 runs or fewer in seven of their last 10 games overall.  They just don't have the firepower to match the Nationals in this one.

The Nationals have a big advantage on the mound over the A's today and should be bigger favorites as a result.  Foster Griffin has been the clear ace of this staff, going 10-2 with a 2.77 ERA and 1.02 WHIP in 19 starts while allowing just 34 earned runs in 110 1/3 innings with 109 K's.  Griffin is 5-1 with a 2.79 ERA and 0.93 WHIP in 10 road starts as well.

Jacob Lopez is one of the worst starters in baseball for the A's.  He is 4-3 with a 6.83 ERA and 1.77 WHIP in 11 starts and three relief appearances this season, allowing 42 earned runs and 11 homers in 55 1/3 innings.  Lopez has posted a 8.31 ERA and 1.75 WHIP at home, allowing 20 earned runs and 5 homers in 21 2/3 innings.  He is backed by a terrible A's bullpen with a 5.55 ERA on the season and a 7.08 ERA at home.  Bet the Nationals Sunday.

15* MLB Sunday Afternoon Line Mistake on Twins/Cubs OVER 7.5

The Cubs and Twins went under the total in the first two games of this series with just 7 combined runs in Game 1 and an 11-run total and 8 combined runs in Game 2 with a 8.5-run total.  Now the books have adjusted this total for Game 3 down too much to 7.5 and there's clearly value with the OVER.

The Twins are a dead nuts OVER team going 58-40-1 OVER in all games this season.  They are scoring 4.8 runs per game and allowing 5.0 runs per game.  The Cubs have a potent offense scoring 5.0 runs per game.  They have scored at least 5 runs in six of their last nine games overall.

Zebby Matthews is an absolute gas can for the Twins, and the Cubs are capable of covering this total on their own against him and this awful Minnesota bullpen that has a 5.11 ERA on the season.  Matthews is 2-3 with a 6.17 ERA in six road starts this season, allowing 24 earned runs and 10 homers in 35 innings.

The Twins have a lot of power, and Shota Imanaga has had a problem with giving up the long ball this season.  Imanaga is 5-8 with a 4.25 ERA in 19 starts while allowing 22 homers.  He is 3-4 with a 4.50 ERA in 11 home starts while allowing 13 homers.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* Interleague Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Rangers/Braves OVER 9

Temps will be in the 90's again in Atlanta on Sunday with light winds blowing out.  It was a similar forecast for the first two games of this series when the Rangers and Braves combined for 16 runs in Game 1 and 13 runs in Game 2.  It should be more of the same in Game 3 Sunday.

The Rangers are a perfect 9-0 OVER in their last nine games overall with 9 or more combined runs in all nine games, and 10 or more in eight of them.  They are 15-3 OVER in their last 18 games overall with 9 or more combined runs in 15 of those 18 games.  They are scoring and allowing a ton of runs right now.  The Braves have a potent offense scoring 5.0 runs per game this season.

Nathan Eovaldi is 9-7 with a 4.04 ERA in 18 starts for the Rangers this season allowing 50 earned runs and 19 homers in 111 1/3 innings.  Grant Holmes is 5-4 with a 3.61 ERA in 18 starts for the Braves allowing 15 homers.  He is 4-3 with a 3.98 ERA and 1.42 WHIP in nine home starts.  Holmes allowed 4 earned runs in 4 innings of a 6-5 loss to the Rangers in his lone career start against them.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* MLB Sunday Afternoon BLOWOUT on Detroit Tigers -147

The Detroit Tigers are 11-3 in their last 14 games overall to get back in contention in the AL Central.  They are only 5.5 games out of first place and believe they can catch up.  The Tigers are the best team in this division in my opinion and one of the most underrated teams in baseball with a +32 run differential despite being six games below .500.

The Angels are 2-12 in their last 14 games overall to fall to 38-61 on the season with the worst record in the American League.  They will struggle to be motivated the rest of the way.

The Tigers have a big advantage on the mound today behind Casey Mize, who is 4-6 with a 2.79 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in 14 starts this season.  He has allowed just 24 earned runs, 5 homers and 18 walks in 77 1/3 innings.  Mize has never lost to the Angels, going 3-0 with a 3.26 ERA in six career starts against them, and the Tigers are 5-1 in those six starts.

Rookie Ryan Johnson has been a disaster in the big leagues for the Angels.  He is 2-5 with a 6.94 ERA and 1.65 WHIP, allowing a whopping 37 earned runs and 13 homers in 48 innings.  That includes 1-4 with a 6.75 ERA and 1.50 WHIP in 33 1/3 innings in 2026.  He is backed by a terrible Angels bullpen with a 4.54 ERA this season.  Bet the Tigers Sunday.

15* AL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Orioles/Astros OVER 8

The total for Game 1 was set at 8.5 and the total for Game 2 was set at 9.  After going under the total in both games, the Game 3 total has been set at 8 which is too big of an adjustment down.  That's especially the case after two tight games where the bullpens got heavy usage, especially in extra innings in Game 2.

The Orioles will go with Brandon Young, who has regressed big time this season after a solid start.  Young has a 3.74 ERA and 1.36 WHIP in 15 starts, including a 3.89 ERA and 1.41 WHIP in seven road starts.  He has allowed 7 earned runs and 20 base runners in 12 innings in his last two starts.  Young does not enjoy facing the Astros, allowing 17 runs, 11 earned, and 4 homers in 9 1/3 innings in his last two starts against them.  He is 1-2 with a 7.27 ERA in three career starts against Houston.

The Astros will go with Hunter Brown, who will be making just his 8th start of the season as he works his way back from injury.  Brown is 1-0 with a 3.57 ERA and 1.39 WHIP in seven starts this season.  He has allowed 9 earned runs and 3 homers in 10 innings in his last two starts.  Brown also does not enjoy facing the Orioles, going 0-2 with a 6.75 ERA in three career starts against them, allowing 13 earned runs and 5 homers in 17 1/3 innings.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* Orioles/Astros AL No-Brainer on Houston -110

I love the spot for the Houston Astros today.  They will be highly motivated to avoid the sweep after dropping the first two games of this series to the Baltimore Orioles.  They lost 3-2 in Game 1 and in extra innings in Game 2.

Houston sends Ace Hunter Brown to the mound to get the job done today.  Brown is 1-0 with a 3.57 ERA in seven starts this season and should be back to full strength now.  He went 12-9 with a 2.43 ERA in 31 starts for the Astros last season.

The Orioles will go with Brandon Young, who has regressed big time this season after a solid start.  Young has a 3.74 ERA and 1.36 WHIP in 15 starts, including a 3.89 ERA and 1.41 WHIP in seven road starts.  He has allowed 7 earned runs and 20 base runners in 12 innings in his last two starts.  Young does not enjoy facing the Astros, allowing 17 runs, 11 earned, and 4 homers in 9 1/3 innings in his last two starts against them.  He is 1-2 with a 7.27 ERA in three career starts against Houston.  Bet the Astros Sunday.

15* NL PLAY OF THE DAY on Marlins/Brewers OVER 8

The Brewers have one of the best offenses in baseball scoring 5.1 runs per game.  The Marlins have an underrated offense scoring 4.5 runs per game.  The Marlins have scored at least 6 runs in six of their last 11 games.  That includes their 8-6 loss to the Brewers yesterday that saw 14 combined runs.  It should be more of the same in Game 3 today in this matchup between two suspect starting pitchers.

Eury Perez is 2-4 with a 4.43 ERA in eight road starts this season allowing 20 earned runs and 7 homers in 40 2/3 innings.  He'll be opposed by Robert Gasser, who is 2-4 with a 5.24 ERA in nine starts this season, allowing 27 earned runs and 10 homers in 46 1/3 innings.  Gasser allowed 7 earned runs in 3 innings to the Pirates in his last start.  He allowed 4 earned runs and 10 hits in 6 innings of a 7-5 win over the Marlins in his lone career start against them.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.