Jack Jones

Jack's Free Pick Sunday: Mariners/White Sox UNDER 8

The forecast will aid us in cashing this UNDER 8 ticket between the Mariners and White Sox this afternoon.  Temps will be in the 50's with 10-15 MPH winds blowing in from left-center in Chicago.  The Mariners are hitting .229 as a team this season while the White Sox are hitting .232.

Davis Martin has been one of the best starters in baseball this season going 5-1 with a 1.64 ERA and 1.02 WHIP in seven starts with 43 K's in 44 innings and only 2 homers allowed.  Martin held the Mariners to 2 earned runs in 7 1/3 innings in his lone career home start them.

Logan Gilbert is 2-3 with a 4.30 ERA and 1.30 WHIP in eight starts this season, but 0-1 with a 2.45 ERA and 1.18 WHIP in two road starts.  Gilbert has owned the White Sox, going 2-0 with a 1.80 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in six career starts against them, allowing just 6 earned runs in 30 innings.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

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15* Yankees/Brewers MLB ANNIHILATOR on OVER 8

These are two of the best offenses in baseball.  The Brewers are scoring 5.2 runs per game while the Yankees are scoring 5.3 runs per game.  This total of 8 is too short given these two offenses up against these two starting pitchers who both have serious question marks.

Carlos Rodon will make his first start of the season for the Yankees and will be on a pitch count.  He is backed by a tired, banged up New York bullpen as well that will get a lot of work again today.

Logan Henderson will be making just his 3rd start of the season for the Brewers after opening 0-1 with a 4.50 ERA in his first two starts.  It will be just the 8th start of his career and arguably the toughest one here against this potent Yankees lineup.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* Tigers/Royals MLB Sunday Night BAILOUT on OVER 8

This total of 8 is too short for a Kansas City home game especially with weather being a non-factor.  They moved the fences in at Kauffman Stadium this season to provide a more hitter-friendly environment.  As the temps continue to rise we will see a lot of slug fests in Kansas City this summer.

The Tigers have so many injuries to their rotation that they will make this a bullpen game starting with Brenan Hanifee.  That puts extra pressure on their bullpen in the short team and they have to be getting exhausted.  The Tigers have a 4.79 ERA as a bullpen in road games this season.

Noah Cameron is 2-2 with a 5.40 ERA and 1.61 WHIP in six starts for the Royals this season.  He has allowed 19 earned runs, 5 homers and 51 base runners in 31 2/3 innings.  He is backed by a poor KC bullpen that has a 4.77 ERA this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday night.

20* Interleague TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Astros/Reds OVER 9

The Houston Astros are a dead nuts OVER team going 26-13-2 OVER in all games this season.  They are scoring 4.9 runs per game and allowing 5.6 runs per game.  They have the worst bullpen in baseball with a 6.12 ERA.

The Reds are 11-4 OVER in their last 15 games overall with 9 or more combined runs in 12 of those 15 games.  Their bullpen has posted a 4.55 ERA and 1.58 WHIP this season.  Temps will be in the 60's with light winds blowing out to center at hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati today to aid us in cashing this OVER 9 ticket.

Andrew Abbott has been an absolute gas can for the Reds this season, going 1-2 with a 5.13 ERA and 1.64 WHIP in eight starts, including 1-2 with a 6.57 ERA and 1.66 WHIP in five home starts.  Kai-Wei Teng will be the opener for the Astros today before giving way to their dreadful bullpen.  Runs should be plentiful for both teams.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on A's/Orioles OVER 10

The forecast will aid us in cashing this OVER 10 ticket between the A's and Orioles today.  Temps will be approaching 80 with 10 MPH winds blowing out to center in Baltimore this afternoon.  And we have two gas can starting pitchers going for both teams.

The A's have scored at least 5 runs in seven of their last 10 games overall.  The Orioles are 14-4-1 OVER in their last 19 games overall finishing with 9 or more combined runs in 14 of them.

Luis Severino is 2-3 with a 4.15 ERA and 1.48 WHIP in eight starts this season.  Severino has allowed a whopping 21 earned runs and 4 homers in 11 2/3 innings in his last three starts against the Orioles.  The A's have a 4.75 ERA as a bullpen this season once he departs.

The Orioles will go with opener Keegan Akin before giving gas can Chris Bassitt the bulk of the innings.  Bassitt is 2-2 with a 5.91 ERA and 1.91 WHIP in seven starts this season, allowing 21 earned runs in 32 innings.  He has allowed 12 earned runs and 4 homers in 10 innings in his last three starts against the A's.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* NL GAME OF THE WEEK on Arizona Diamondbacks -107

The Arizona Diamondbacks have big advantages on the mound and at the plate over the New York Mets today.  The Mets are 8-18 in their last 26 games overall and have been held to 4 runs or fewer in 20 of their last 24 games.  They are struggling at the plate without Lindor, Robert Jr. and Polanco which are three of their best hitters.

The Diamondbacks are scoring 4.3 runs per game compared to 3.5 runs per game for the Mets.  Eduardo Rodriquez is 3-0 with a 2.50 ERA in seven starts for the Diamondbacks this season, allowing just 11 earned runs in 39 2/3 innings.  He held the Mets to one earned run in 6 innings of a 7-1 victory on April 9th in his last start against them this season.

Huascar Brazoban will serve as an opener for New York today.  But David Peterson will get the bulk of the innings, and he has been awful this season, which is why they are trying an opener.  Peterson is 1-4 with a 6.29 ERA and 1.60 WHIP, allowing 24 earned runs in 34 1/3 innings.  He allowed 5 earned runs in 5 innings in his last start against Arizona on April 8th.  Bet the Diamondbacks Sunday.

20* Knicks/76ers Game 4 No-Brainer on Philadelphia +1.5

The Philadelphia 76ers were down 3-1 to the Boston Celtics last series and won the final three games to advance.  They won't be intimidated by being down 3-0 to the Knicks now, and I fully expect them to believe they can still make this a series.

I think the 76ers have played some of their worst basketball of the season in the first three games of this series with the Knicks.  That 7-game series took something out of them, and they just haven't played up to their potential to this point.  I think we get their best game yet in Game 4 today.

The Knicks have shot at least 50% from the field in every game thus far while the 76ers have shot 45% or less from the field in all three games.  No question the 76ers are due some shooting regression in this one.

OG Anunoby is dealing with a hamstring injury that kept him out of Game 3.  I think with a 3-0 series lead, they will sit him again.  He has been one of their best players in these playoffs scoring at least 17 points in six consecutive games, including 29 points twice.  It's a big loss for them that didn't quite come to fruition in Game 3.  It will be felt in Game 4 today if he doesn't go again.  Bet the 76ers Sunday.

20* Spurs/Timberwolves Game 4 No-Brainer on Minnesota +4.5

The Minnesota Timberwolves upset the Denver Nuggets in six games last series.  They upset the Spurs 104-102 in Game 1 as well.  But two straight very poor shooting performances has put them in a 2-1 hole and in a must-win Game 4 at home tonight.  I fully expect them to win this game outright, but we'll take the points for some insurance.

The Timberwolves shot 39.8% in Game 2 and even worse at 38.4% in Game 3.  Yet they still had a shot to beat the Spurs in the final minutes in Game 3 in a 7-point defeat.  They are due some positive shooting regression, and having both Anthony Edwards and Ayo Dosunmu back healthy makes all the difference for this team.

Edwards had 32 points in Game 3 to show he's still the superstar they need him to be.  But the role players weren't as good as Dosunmu was returning from injury and went 4-of-12 for 11 points.  He will be much better in Game 4, and everyone else will take their games up a notch as well with what's at stake.  Jaden McDaniels went 5-of-22 last game and will be much better.

The Spurs are still a very young team and this will be the toughest environment most of them have every played in on the road.  They could relax a little here knowing they have earned home-court advantage back with consecutive victories.  There will be no relax from Minnesota.  Bet the Timberwolves Sunday.