Jack Jones

Jack's Free Pick Tuesday: Oklahoma State/Arizona State OVER 161

This is a good time to 'buy low' on a OVER in a Oklahoma State game.  The Cowboys have gone under the total in five of their last six games overall.  They shot 24.6% from the field and 21.4% from 3 in a 84-47 loss to Arizona last time out.  The Wildcats shot just 14.3% from 3 in that game as well.

This 161-point total is the lowest in a game involving Oklahoma State since December 6th, thus the 'buy low' factor.  The Cowboys rank 10th in adjusted tempo, 61st in adjusted offense and 85th in adjusted defense.  They should get back into another shootout tonight given their opponent.

Arizona State also likes to play fast ranking 86th in adjusted tempo.  The Sun Devils are 69th in adjusted offense and just 112th in adjusted defense.  They have gone under the total in four straight coming in, so this is also good spot to 'buy low' in a game involving ASU.  They had gone over the total in nine of their previous 10 games.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

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15* NBA Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Los Angeles Clippers +8

The Los Angeles Clippers are coming off a 115-96 road win as similar 8.5-point dogs at Minnesota.  They got Bennedict Mathurin expected to play tonight after sitting out that game since his trade from the Pacers.  Mathurin (17.8 PPG) provides a much-needed offensive punch at the guard position to take some of the onus off Kawhi Leonard, who is playing as well as he ever has.

The Houston Rockets have been a money burner for months, going just 5-15 ATS in their last 20 games overall.  They have just one win by double-digits in their last 20 games.  Asking them to win this game by 9-plus points to beat us tonight is asking too much.  

The Clippers are 12-4 SU & 10-6 ATS in their last 12 games overall.  Bet the Clippers Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Fresno State +20.5

Fresno State wants revenge from a 72-63 home loss to Utah State as 14.5-point dogs in their first meeting this season.  What stood out from that game is that Fresno shot just 34.5% from the floor and 22.7% from 3-point range and still only lost by 9 points.  

They can only have improved shooting in the rematch, and they are catching a whopping 20.5 points on the road this time around.  They haven't been losing by this kind of margin all season.  In fact, they have just one loss by more than 19 points, and that came against one of the best teams in the country in Arkansas.

This looks like a letdown spot for Utah State coming off a pair of road wins at New Mexico and Wyoming.  They have a big game against Boise State on deck, too.  They won't be all that motivated to beat this Fresno State team again.  Asking the Aggies to win this game by 21-plus points to beat us is asking too much.  Bet Fresno State Tuesday.

20* NBA Western Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Mavs/Suns OVER 228.5

The Phoenix Suns have Devin Booker back healthy and are back to being potent offensively.  That's especially the case with Jalen Green now healthy alongside him.  Coming off one of their worst shooting performances of the season where they hit just 39.8% from the field and 23.9% from 3-point range, the Suns will bust out tonight against the lowly Dallas Mavericks.

The Mavericks have no healthy big men left.  That has forced them to go more small ball, and the result has been a lot higher-scoring games and no defense.  The Mavericks are coming off consecutive shootout losses with the Spurs.  They lost 135-123 for 258 combined points and 138-125 for 263 combined points in the rematch.

The OVER is 2-0 in the last two meetings with 241 combined points in their final meeting last season, and 237 combined points in their first meeting this season.  It should be more of the same tonight as this total of 228.5 is too low.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* ACC TOTAL OF THE WEEK on UNC/Miami OVER 156.5

North Carolina has been a dead nuts OVER team since getting G Seth Trimble (14.2 PPG) back healthy.  The Tar Heels are 8-1 OVER in their last nine games overall going for 160 or more combined points in eight of those nine games.  This total of 156.5 is very low for a game involving UNC right now.

Miami profiles as an OVER team ranking 53rd in average length of offensive possession.  The Hurricanes are 12-2 OVER in all home games this season.  We are seeing an average of 160 combined points in all Miami home games.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* Big 12 TOTAL OF THE WEEK on BYU/Baylor OVER 158

BYU is a dead nuts OVER team going 4-1 OVER in its last five games overall.  The Cougars combined for 169 points with Utah, 169 with Arizona, 172 with Kansas and 191 with Oklahoma State.  The only game that went under came against Houston, which plays elite defense and runs offense at a snail's pace.

BYU ranks 59th in adjusted tempo and 11th in adjusted offense but just 49th in adjusted defense.  The Cougars have really been exposed defensively in Big 12 play.  Now they face another elite offensive team in Baylor, which ranks 30th in adjusted offense but just 88th in adjusted defense as one of the worst defensive teams in the Big 12.

This is a good chance to 'buy low' on a OVER in a Baylor game.  The Bears are 4-0 UNDER in their last four games overall, but three of them came against slow, elite defensive teams in Cincinnati, WVU and Iowa State.  They are ready for a shootout here with BYU.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.