Jack Jones

Jack's Free Pick Friday: Royals/Twins OVER 8.5

It will be hot in Minnesota tonight and the ball should be flying out again like it was last night when the Royals and Twins combined for 5 homers and 14 runs in Game 1 of this series.  Both bullpens are taxed too with the Twins using seven different pitchers and the Royals using five.

These are two of the worst bullpens in baseball as it is with the Royals posting a 5.01 ERA and the Twins a 4.80 ERA on the season.  The Royals are heating up at the plate scoring 5.7 runs per game in their last six games.  The Twins are 40-23-1 OVER in all games this season scoring 4.6 runs per game and allowing 5.0 runs per game.

Michael Wacha is coming off one of his worst starts of the season allowing 6 earned runs and 11 base runners in 5 innings to the Rangers.  Wacha is 2-1 with a 5.73 ERA in four career road starts at Minnesota, allowing 14 earned runs and 5 homers in 22 innings.

Zebby Matthews is 7-13 with a 5.71 ERA and 1.45 WHIP in 29 career starts in the big leagues.  Matthews is also coming off his worst start of the season, allowing 7 earned runs and 2 homers in 4 1/3 innings of a 9-3 loss to the Pirates.  He allowed 2 earned runs in 4 innings in his lone career start against Kansas City.

The OVER is 8-1-1 in Twins last 10 games overall with 10 or more combined runs in seven of their last nine games.  The OVER is 5-2 in Royals last seven games overall with 9 or more combined runs in five of them.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

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15* MLB Friday Night Line Mistake on Pirates/Braves OVER 8

Two of the best offenses in the National League square off in Game 1 of this series in Hot-Lanta tonight.  It will indeed be hot with temps in the 80's at first pitch, so the ball should be flying out.  This total of 8 is too low for these two offenses up against these two starting pitchers and bullpens.

The Pirates are one of the most improved offenses in baseball scoring 5.2 runs per game this season.  They have scored a total of 49 runs in their last six games for an average of 8.2 runs per game.  The OVER is 8-1 in Pirates last nine games overall with 9 or more combined runs in eight of those nine games.  The Braves are scoring 5.2 runs per game this season as well.

Mitch Keller is 5-2 with a 4.35 ERA in 12 starts for the Pirates this season.  He is 1-2 with a 6.26 ERA in five starts at night.  Keller is 1-3 with a 7.31 ERA and 2.03 WHIP in seven career starts against the Braves, allowing 26 earned runs and 7 homers in 32 innings.  He is 0-2 with a 10.80 ERA and 2.46 WHIP in four career starts in Atlanta, allowing 20 earned runs, 5 homers and 41 base runners in 16 2/3 innings.  He is backed by a very tired Pittsburgh bullpen.

Martin Perez is one of the biggest regression candidates in baseball.  He's nowhere near as good as his numbers to this point, especially since he's a contact pitcher with just 42 K's in 51 2/3 innings.  He is 2-1 with a 3.86 ERA and 1.53 WHIP in three career home starts against the Pirates, allowing 7 earned runs, 2 homers and 25 base runners in 16 1/3 innings.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* Interleague TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Angels/Dodgers OVER 8

The Dodgers have one of the best offenses in baseball scoring 5.2 runs per game.  The Angels have been respectable offensively scoring 4.4 runs per game, but they have one of the worst staffs in baseball allowing 5.2 runs per game.

The Angels are 5-1 OVER in their last six games overall finishing with 10 or more combined runs in five of those games, and 13 or more in four of them.  This total is too short for a game involving the Angels right now.

Reid Detmers figures to get the bulk of the innings for the Angels tonight.  He is 2-5 with a 4.76 ERA in 12 starts while allowing 36 earned runs in 68 innings.  Detmers has allowed 7 earned runs and 3 homers in 9 1/3 innings in his last two starts against the Dodgers.

Roki Sasaki has been a weak link in this Los Angeles rotation.  He is 3-3 with a 4.59 ERA and 1.35 WHIP in 10 starts this season, allowing 26 earned runs and 10 homers in 51 innings.  The Angels have already seen him once this season which will be an advantage for them.

The OVER is 7-1 in the last eight meetings between the Dodgers and Angels with 10 or more combined runs in seven of those eight meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* MLB Friday Night BLOWOUT on Tampa Bay Rays -130

The Tampa Bay Rays will be highly motivated for a victory after going through their worst stretch of the season.  They have gone 2-8 in their last 10 games overall while getting just one day off during this stretch.  They now have a day off coming into this one to regroup, and I expect them to respond like one of the best teams in baseball, which is exactly what they are at 36-23 this season.

The Rays have a big advantage on the mound tonight.  Drew Rasmussen is 4-2 with a 3.36 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in 11 starts this season, including 1-1 with a 3.13 ERA and 0.92 WHIP in six road starts.  Rasmussen is 3-0 with a 2.54 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in five career starts against the Marlins, allowing just 8 earned runs in 28 1/3 innings, including one earned run in 12 innings on the road.

Opener Ryan Gusto has posted a 9.00 ERA this season.  He allowed 2 earned runs and 7 base runners in 3 2/3 innings in his only previous action against Tampa Bay.  The Marlins will make this a bullpen game.  Bet the Rays Friday.

15* MLB Friday Total DOMINATOR on Rays/Marlins OVER 7.5

The Marlins are 110-78 OVER in all home games over the last three seasons.  They are 75-45 OVER as a home underdog and 61-34 OVER when the total is 7 to 7.5 over that same time frame.  This total of 7.5 is too short tonight.

The Rays are capable of covering this total on their own against opener Ryan Gusto and this poor Miami bullpen.  The Rays are scoring 4.6 runs per game this season and are ready to break out after a recent slump, and I think they do just that tonight.

Drew Rasmussen was due some regression and it hit him hard in his last start.  He allowed 5 earned runs in 4 innings of a 14-3 loss to the Angels.  He has allowed 4 earned runs and 16 base runners in 11 1/3 innings in his last two starts against the Marlins, who have already seen him once this season which will be to their advantage.  The Rays have a poor bullpen with a 4.62 ERA this season and a 4.87 ERA on the road.

The Rays are 5-1-1 OVER in their last six games overall with 8 or more combined runs in six of those seven games.  The Marlins are 6-2-1 OVER in their last nine games overall with 9 or more combined runs in six of those.  The OVER is 3-0 in three meetings between the Marlins and Rays this season with 9 or more combined runs in all three.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* MLB Friday Late-Night BAILOUT on Nationals/DBacks OVER 9

The Washington Nationals are a dead nuts OVER team.  They are 38-22-3 OVER in all games this season scoring 5.3 runs per game and allowing 5.4 runs per game.  The Diamondbacks are scoring 4.5 runs per game and allowing 4.4 runs per game this season.

Foster Griffin is 6-2 with a 3.76 ERA in 12 starts for the Nationals this season.  But he does have a propensity to give up the long ball, allowing 13 homers in 67 innings this season.  Griffin has really struggled of late, allowing 17 earned runs and 7 homers in 20 1/3 innings in his last four starts.  And he is backed by a very bad Washington bullpen with a 4.76 ERA this season.

Merrill Kelly is 5-3 with a 5.06 ERA and 1.46 WHIP in nine starts this season.  He is 2-1 with a 6.23 ERA and 1.56 WHIP in three home starts.  He has allowed 30 earned runs and 10 homers in 53 1/3 innings this season. He allowed 6 runs, 4 earned, and 2 homers in 5 innings of a 9-7 loss to the Nationals in his last start against them.

The OVER is 7-2 in the last nine meetings between the Nationals and Diamondbacks with 9 or more combined runs in seven of those nine meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* MLB Friday UPSET SHOCKER on New York Mets +116

The Mets are getting healthier and playing some of their best baseball of the season right now.  They are 5-2 in their last seven games overall while scoring 6 runs or more in four of their last six games.  The Padres are going through their worst stretch of the season, going 1-9 in thier last 10 games overall while scoring 4 runs or fewer in all nine losses, and 2 runs or fewer in seven of their last 11 games.

I love the spot for the Mets tonight.  They have the rest advantage after having yesterday off, while the Padres just completed a 6-game road trip that ended in Philadelphia last night.  Now they have to fly back across country and try and get back up off the mat for the Mets.

I love what I've seen from Christian Scott this season.  He is 1-0 with a 2.97 ERA in seven starts with 38 K's in 30 1/3 innings and only one homer allowed.  He is backed by a very good New York bullpen with a 3.23 ERA this season.

Michael King has been solid at 4-4 with a 3.18 ERA in 12 starts this season.  But King has struggled in his last two starts, allowing 9 earned runs, 2 homers and 15 base runners in 9 2/3 innings.  And King has really struggled against the Mets, allowing 13 runs, 9 earned, and 5 homers in 8 innings in his last two starts against them.  He is 0-2 with an 8.48 ERA and 1.97 WHIP in three career starts against New York.  Bet the Mets Friday.

15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on Orioles/Blue Jays OVER 8

The Baltimore Orioles are heating up at the plate scoring 5 runs or more in nine of their last 13 games overall.  The Blue Jays are also heating up scoring 5 runs or more in four of their last six games, and 3 runs or more in all six.  This total of 8 is too short tonight.

Brandon Young is 4-8 with a 5.01 ERA and 1.47 WHIP in 20 career starts in the big leagues.  He has allowed 56 earned runs and 17 homers in 100 2/3 innings.  He is backed by a poor, banged up Baltimore bullpen with a 4.77 ERA on the season and a 5.94 ERA on the road.

Trey Yesavage is a nice young talent and could be a great starter soon.  But he has the disadvantage of having to face the Orioles for a 2nd time in a week.  He allowed 9 base runners in 5 innings of a 6-5 loss to the Orioles on May 30th.  Yesavage has now allowed 6 earned runs in 11 2/3 innings in his last two starts coming in.  

The OVER is 5-1 in the last six meetings between the Orioles and Blue Jays with 9 or more combined runs in five of those six, and 11 or more in four of them.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* NL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Reds/Cardinals OVER 9

The forecast will aid us in cashing this OVER 9 ticket between the Reds and Cardinals tonight.  Temps will be in the 80's with double-digit winds blowing out to left-center in St. Louis.  The Reds are 37-23-1 OVER in all games this season.

Brady Singer is 2-5 with a 6.18 ERA and 1.69 WHIP in 11 starts this season while allowing 16 homers in 51 innings with only 36 K's.  Singer is 0-3 with a 7.67 ERA and 1.85 WHIP in six road starts, allowing 23 earned runs and 7 homers in 27 innings.  He is backed by a poor Cincinnati bullpen with a 4.96 ERA this season.

Kyle Leahy is 5-3 with a 4.25 ERA and 1.56 WHIP in 11 starts for the Cardinals this season.  He has allowed 26 earned runs, 8 homers and 86 base runners in 55 innings with just 46 K's. Leahy allowed 5 earned runs and 2 homers in 5 innings of a 7-6 loss to the Reds in his lone start against them this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

25* NBA Playoffs TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Knicks/Spurs OVER 213.5

Both the New York Knicks and San Antonio Spurs were rusty and nervous for Game 1 of the NBA Finals.  The Knicks had 8 days off in between games, while the Spurs had 3 days off in between.  The rust and nerves showed as both teams shot much worse than their season averages.

The Knicks shot 41.5% from the field after having shot 47.7% or better in 11 consecutive games prior, and 49% or better in 10 of those.  That 47.7% performance also came largely due to rust in Game 1 against the Cavaliers in the Eastern Conference Finals after also having 8 days off prior to that series after sweeping the Hawks.

The Spurs shot just 36% from the field and 11-of-43 (25.6%) from 3-point range in Game 1.  Vassell, Fox and Castle combined to go 2-of-15 alone.  It's clear they are due some positive shooting regression in Game 2 and will be much sharper offensively.  They showed the most nerves as a young team playing in the NBA Finals for the first time.  Nerves won't be nearly as much of a factor for them tonight.

The OVER is 10-3 in Spurs last 13 playoff games.  They are playing at a fast tempo, and you could see the Knicks wanted to push it as much as possible to try and create easy looks before San Antonio's defense has a chance to get set with Wembenyama.  They will continue to push the pace in Game 2 tonight, and both teams will be much more efficient offensively.

The total for Game 1 closed at 217.5.  Circa dropped this number all the way down to 213.5 for Game 2 on the opener, which is where I grabbed it knowing there was value with the OVER.  I would play this as a 25* all the way up to the Game 1 total of 217.5, though it likely won't get that high.  It's at 216.5 as of this writing.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.