Jack Jones

Jack's Free Pick Saturday: NC State -5

I love the spot for the NC State Wolfpack today.  Their 6-game winning streak came to a screeching halt with a 118-77 road loss at Louisville on Monday.  They shot 18.2% from 3 while Louisville shot 60% from 3 in an absolute aberration.

Now the Wolfpack have had the last four days off to recover and regroup.  They will come out with their hair on fire at home here against Miami.  They were last seen at home beating Virginia Tech by 9 and Syracuse by 20 in their last two home games.

Miami is in a letdown spot off an upset home win over North Carolina on Tuesday.  It was a prime letdown spot for the Tar Heels coming off their big win over rival Duke.  The Hurricanes also benefited from UNC's best player in Caleb Wilson suffering an injury that will keep him out for the foreseeable future.

Miami had gone 1-5 ATS in its previous six games with upset home losses to FSU as 10.5-point favorites and California as 11.5-point favorites.  The Hurricanes also lost by 10 at Clemson.  This will be one of their toughest tests of the season on the road up against a highly motivated Wolfpack squad.  Bet NC State Saturday.

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15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Texas/Missouri OVER 150

Texas has been on an absolute tear offensively scoring 79 or more points in six straight games coming in.  This total of 150 is too short for a game involving the Longhorns right now.  They rank 10th in adjusted offense and 103rd in adjusted defense this season.

Missouri and its opponents have combined for at least 154 points in four of its last five games coming into this one.  The Tigers have scored 78 or more points in four of their last five games overall.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* ACC Total DOMINATOR on Miami/NC State OVER 155.5

Two dead nuts OVER teams square off today when Miami visits NC State.  The Hurricanes are 16-8 OVER in all games this season while the Wolfpack are 16-9 OVER in all games.

NC State is a perfect 7-0 OVER in its last seven games overall with 156 or more combined points in five straight games coming into this one.  The Wolfpack rank 66th in adjusted tempo, 47th in average length of offensive possession and 24th in adjusted offense.

Miami is 4-1 OVER in its last five games overall.  The Hurricanes rank 112th in adjusted tempo, 64th in average length of offensive possession and 53rd in adjusted offense.  They should get 4th-leading scorer Tru Washington (11.9 PPG) back from a 3-game absence for personal reasons after he warmed up against UNC last game before being a late scratch.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Big East GAME OF THE MONTH on Georgetown +17

The UConn Huskies are very fortunate to have a 23-2 record this season.  They have nine wins by 8 points or fewer and have gone 9-1 in such games.  They are just 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games overall and should not be laying 17 points to Georgetown today.

Georgetown has been a tough luck loser all season with seven losses by single-digits.  But the Hoyas are playing their best basketball of the season right now, going 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall with their only loss coming to Villanova by 7.

Now the Hoyas want revenge from a 64-62 home loss as 11.5-point dogs to UConn in their first meeting this season on January 17th just a month ago.  They already proved they could play with the Huskies at home, and getting 17 points in the rematch after nearly pulling off the upset in the first meeting is too much. 

The Hoyas have a big rest advantage here as they last played on Saturday getting a full week off in between games.  UConn just beat Butler by 10 as 11.5-point favorites on Wednesday, getting just two days off in between games.  Bet Georgetown Saturday.

20* Big West TOTAL OF THE MONTH on UCSB/Cal Poly OVER 159.5

Cal Poly is a dead nuts OVER team and should not have a total in the 150's tonight.  The Mustangs rank 4th in adjusted tempo, 3rd in average length of offensive possession and 264th in adjusted defense.  They are scoring 81.0 points per game and allowing 85.5 points per game this season.

UCSB is an elite offensive team ranking 72nd in adjusted offense while scoring 79.2 points per game this season.  The Guachos are terrible defensively, ranking 238th in adjusted defense.  They rank 31st in effective FG percentage offense and 301st in effective FG percentage defense.

This will be a rematch from a 107-67 win by UCSB over Cal Poly in their first meeting this season that saw 174 combined points.  UCSB probably won't shoot 51.7% from 3 again like they did in scoring 107 points, but Cal Poly is due some positive shooting regression after shooting 26.9% from 3 in that first meeting.  The end result should even out and this game should sail OVER 159.5 combined points once again.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Texas Tech/Arizona ESPN No-Brainer on Texas Tech +9.5

Arizona finally suffered its first loss of the season to Kansas.  I always like fading teams in the next game after having their unbeaten record get blemished.  There tends to be a hangover, and they just don't show up with the kind of intensity they were before trying to keep that perfect record intact.

Even if it wasn't a terrible spot for the Wildcats, they have no business being 9.5-point favorites over Texas Tech.  Asking them to win this game by double-digits to beat us is asking too much.  The Red Raiders have just one loss all season by double-digits.

Texas Tech is one of the best teams in the Big 12 at 18-6 this season.  The Red Raiders rank 16th in adjusted offense and 26th in adjusted defense with really no weaknesses.  They made easy work of Colorado 78-44 last time out and will be fresh and ready to go trying to take down the No. 1 team in the country tonight.  Bet Texas Tech Saturday.

15* Atlantic 10 Total DOMINATOR on Duquesne/St. Bonaventure OVER 152.5

Duquesne is a dead nuts OVER team ranking 52nd in adjusted tempo, 63rd in effective FG percentage offense and 202nd in effective FG percentage defense.  The Dukes are 14-8 OVER in all games this season.

St. Bonaventure ranks 95th in adjusted offense and 112th in effective FG percentage offense, but just 237th in adjusted defense and 281st in effective FG percentage defense.  The Bonnies are 15-8 OVER in all games including 9-2 OVER in home games this season.

This will be a rematch from a 87-79 win by St. Bonaventure at Duquesne on January 28th for 166 combined points.  This total has been set too low for the rematch at 152.5 today.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Atlantic 10 PLAY OF THE DAY on Richmond +7.5

Richmond is 14-11 this season and has been a hard luck loser.  The Spiders have six losses by 5 points or fewer.  But they showed what they were capable of with a 82-70 home win as 3.5-point dogs to George Mason last time out.

Now the Spiders will be out for revenge from a 77-69 road loss at VCU as 12.5-point dogs on January 27th just a few weeks ago.  They already showed they could play with the Rams on the road, and now they will take them to the wire at home.

VCU is overvalued due to its current 8-game winning streak.  But six of those eight wins came by single-digits, so they have been very fortunate.  Their lucky likely runs out today after going 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall.  Bet Richmond Saturday.

15* Big Sky PLAY OF THE DAY on Weber State/Eastern Washington OVER 156

Weber State really profiles as an OVER team.  The Wildcats rank 107th in adjusted tempo, 138th in adjusted offense and just 283rd in adjusted defense.

Eastern Washington has a very similar profile.  The Eagles rank 154th in adjusted tempo, 134th in adjusted offense and just 288th in adjusted defense.  So these are two of the worst defensive teams in the country that both play faster than average.

Weber State beat Eastern Washington 91-80 in their first meeting this season for 171 combined points.  That total was set at 158.5 and sailed OVER, and this total has been set at 156 which is way too short for the rematch.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Louisville/Baylor ESPN ANNIHILATOR on OVER 163

Getting Mikel Brown Jr. (17.3 PPG) back healthy after missing eight games has made a huge difference for Louisville's offense in recent games.  The Cardinals are 3-1 OVER in their last four games overall with 162, 168 and 195 combined points in the three OVERS.  They just hung 118 points on NC State last time out behind 45 points from Brown.

Louisville ranks 35th in adjusted tempo, 17th in average length of offensive possession and 12th in adjusted offense this season.  They will hang a big number on Baylor, which ranks 23rd in adjusted offense but just 107th in adjusted defense while also liking to play faster at 145th in adjusted tempo.

Baylor is coming off a 99-94 loss to BYU and 193 combined points.  It should be more of the same here against a Louisville team that profiles similarly to BYU.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Big 12 Total DOMINATOR on Colorado/BYU OVER 163.5

BYU is a dead nuts OVER team going 5-1 OVER in its last six games overall.  The Cougars and their opponents have combined for at least 169 points in five of those six games with the lone exception being Houston.  This total of 163.5 is short for a game involving BYU right now.

BYU ranks 49th in adjusted tempo, 25th in average length of offensive possession and 4th in adjusted offense.  Colorado also likes to play fast ranking 130th in adjusted tempo, 90th in average length of offensive possession, 55th in adjusted offense and 150th in adjusted defense.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Sun Belt TOTAL OF THE MONTH on South Alabama/Arkansas State OVER 150.5

Arkansas State likes to play real fast ranking 20th in adjusted tempo and 10th in average length of offensive possession.  The Red Wolves will control the tempo playing at home today, and this total of 150.5 is very short for a game involving them.

South Alabama has busted out for 81 points against Buffalo and 84 points against Southern Miss in its last two games coming in.  The Jaguars can keep up in a shootout, which they've already proven once this season.

In their first meeting, South Alabama beat Arkansas State 91-87 (OT) in a game that was tied 81-81 at the end of regulation for 162 combined points.  Neither team shot well as South Alabama shot 22.2% from 3 while Arkansas State shot 29.5% from 3.  Both teams are due some positive shooting regression in the rematch, and this total should sail OVER 150.5 combined points.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Big East Total DOMINATOR on Marquette/Xavier OVER 155.5

Xavier is a dead nuts OVER team going 18-6 OVER in all games this season.  The Musketeers rank 38th in adjusted tempo, 26th in average length of offensive possession, 98th in adjusted offense and 106th in adjusted defense.  They are 7-1 OVER in their last eight games overall with 152 or more combined points in seven of those eight games.

Marquette also likes to play fast ranking 87th in adjusted tempo and 15th in average length of offensive possession.  The Golden Eagles are 6-3 OVER in their last nine games overall.

This will be a rematch from a 66-65 win by Marquette over Xavier on January 7th for just 131 combined points.  But both teams shot horribly and it's unlikely to happen again.  Marquette shot 40% from the field, 22.7% from 3 and 50% from the FT line.  Xavier shot 37.3% from the field.  Both teams are due some positive shooting regression in the rematch.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Sun Belt Total DOMINATOR on UL-Monroe/Texas State OVER 149

UL-Monroe is a dead nuts OVER team going 17-7 OVER in all games this season, including 10-3 OVER in road games.  The Warhawks rank 29th in adjusted tempo and 349th in adjusted defense, so they play fast and play no defense.

Texas State is thriving on offense during its 5-game winning streak coming into this one.  The Bobcats have scored at least 72 points in all five wins.

This is a rematch from a 84-79 win by Texas State at ULM in their first meeting that saw 163 combined points.  And the Bobcats didn't shoot it that well connecting on just 28.6% from 3-point range.  They may hang 100 on ULM today.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

25* ACC TOTAL OF THE YEAR on SMU/Syracuse OVER 156

SMU has been a dead nuts OVER team all season going 15-9 OVER in all games.  The Mustangs rank 93rd in adjusted tempo, 39th in average length of offensive possession, 15th in adjusted offense and 91st in adjusted defense.  They have stayed remarkably healthy all season.

A return to health is a big reason Syracuse has been a dead nuts OVER team in recent weeks.  Indeed, the Orange are 9-2 OVER in their last 11 games overall with 154 or more combined points in nine of those 11 games.

SMU is 5-1 OVER in its last six games overall while going for 162 or more combined points in all six games.  This total of 156 is very low for a game involving SMU and Syracuse right now.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* St. John's/Providence TNT ANNIHILATOR on OVER 167

Providence is a dead nuts OVER team going 19-6 OVER in all games this season.  The Friars are 10-3 OVER in all home games.  They rank 17th in adjusted tempo, 19th in adjusted offense and 211th in adjusted defense.  They just got 2nd-leading scorer Jason Edwards (17.3 PPG) back from injury after missing seven games, too.

St. John's also likes to play fast ranking 53rd in adjusted tempo, 35th in average length of offensive possession and 30th in adjusted offense.  So these are two Top 30 offenses that both like to play fast, so there will be a ton of possessions in this game.

One of the few Providence games that went under the total came in a 77-71 upset win over St. John's on January 3rd in their first meeting this season.  But both teams shot abysmally.  St. John's shot 28.2% from the field and 22.6% from 3-point range, while Providence shot just 39.1% from the field and 33.3% from 3-point range.  Both are due positive shooting regression the rematch, especially the Red Storm.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.