Jack Jones

Jack's Free Pick Saturday: Dallas Mavericks +8.5

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series between the Houston Rockets and Dallas Mavericks.  The home team is 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Asking the Rockets to go on the road and win by 9-plus points to beat us is asking too much tonight.

The Rockets won 110-102 on November 3rd at home in the first meeting this season, failing to cover as 12.5-point favorites.  The Mavericks came back with a 122-109 upset home victory as 6.5-point dogs on December 6th in the 2nd meeting.

Dallas actually matches up well with Houston because they have the size with AD and Gafford to counter the Rockets.  The Mavericks are as healthy as they have been all season heading into this one.  They are also motivated to bounce back from four consecutive losses with three of those coming on the road.  It's time to 'buy low' on the big home dog.  Bet the Mavericks Saturday.

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No. 2 Ranked Basketball Capper All-Time! Check the long-term results and you’ll see that Jack Jones has put together a MASSIVE 4832-4199 Hoops Run since 2012 that has seen his $1,000/game players cash in a WHOPPING $278,600! He has delivered NINE Top-8 Basketball Finishes L14 Years! (#1 2012-13, #2 2020-21, #2 2013-14, #3 2011-12, #4 2017-18, #5 2015-16, #5 2023-24, #7 2021-22, #4 2024-25)

No. 1 Ranked NFL Capper All-Time! Jack has SIX Top-10 NFL Finishes (#3 2009, #4 2023, #4 2017, #5 2024, #8 2019, #10 2008) to his credit! He is riding a 641-511 NFL Run that has his $1,000/game players winning $73,440! That includes a 368-281 NFL Run since November of 2021! He delivered an 81-56 NFL Record two seasons ago and finished as the No. 4 Ranked NFL Capper in 2023-24 as a result! He followed it up with an 87-66 NFL Record last season to finish as the No. 5 Ranked NFL Capper in 2024-25 as well!

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15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Wisconsin +6.5

No conference has a bigger home-court advantage than the Big Ten.  So getting 6.5 points with Wisconsin at home tonight is a tremendous value even though on paper Purdue is clearly the better team.

But this is a night game so it will be a raucous home atmosphere in favor of the Badgers, who are 8-0 SU & 5-3 ATS at home this season.  They are outscoring opponents by 24.0 points per game at home this season.  That includes recent wins over Marquette by 20 and Northwestern by 12.

Purdue will be playing just its 3rd true road game of the season here.  The first two came at Rutgers and at Alabama, and I think this will be their toughest test yet.  They have a recent common opponent in Marquette, who the Boilermakers also beat by 20 at home.  Bet Wisconsin Saturday.

15* Big West PLAY OF THE DAY on UC-Irvine/CS-Fullerton OVER 160.5

Cal State Fullerton is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Titans rank 2nd in adjusted tempo and 3rd in average length of offensive possession.  They also rank just 247th in adjusted defense.  The Titans will control the tempo playing at home tonight.

Fullerton is 9-4 OVER in all games this season scoring 88.2 points per game and allowing 86.9 points per game, averaging 175.1 combined points per game and haven't gone to OT once this season.  Fullerton and its opponents have combined for at least 173 points in five consecutive games coming in.  This total of 160.5 is too short for a game involving the Titans.

UC-Irvine is 3-0 OVER in its last three games coming in.  The Anteaters have scored at least 81 points in three of their last five games, and I fully expect them to top 80 points tonight as they will be more than happy to run with Fullerton in this one.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on SMU ML -105

SMU is 9-0 SU at home this season with one of the best home-court advantages in the country.  The Mustangs are outscoring opponents by 22.4 points per game at home this season.

UNC will be playing just its 2nd true road game of the season.  I like fading teams who have played zero or one true road game at the time conference play starts because they aren't used to it, and it's a shock to the system dealing with a hostile road crowd like this one will be.  Bet SMU on the Money Line Saturday.

15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on UNC/SMU OVER 156.5

SMU is a dead nuts OVER team going 8-5 OVER in all games this season.  The Mustangs and their opponents have combined for at least 157 or more combined points in 12 of their 13 games this season.  This total of 156.5 is very short for a game involving the Mustangs.

UNC just got G Seth Trimble (15.6 PPG) back from injury and he has only played in five games all season.  Trimble is one of the fastest guards in the country and gets the fast break going for the Tar Heels.  They have been a slow plodding team without him, but with him their offense has flourished.

The Mustangs rank 122nd in adjusted tempo, 25th in average length of offensive possession and 27th in adjusted offense.  They will control the tempo playing at home today, and I expect both teams to reach 80 points in this one.  UNC is scoring 81.2 PPG while SMU is scoring 91.1 PPG this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* MAC TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Akron/Miami Ohio OVER 174

Akron is a dead nuts OVER team going 8-3 OVER in all games this season.  The Zips rank 30th in adjusted tempo, 19th in average length of offensive possession, 12th in adjusted offense and just 208th in adjusted defense.  They are scoring 97.1 points per game this season.

Miami Ohio is also a dead nuts OVER team going 9-2 OVER in all games this season.  The Redhawks rank 43rd in adjusted tempo, 59th in average length of offensive possession, 73rd in adjusted offense and just 174th in adjusted defense.  They are scoring 94.9 points per game this season.

This game will be played at a break-neck pace and will feature elite offense and poor defense on both ends.  The Redhawks rank 8th in effective FG percentage (60%) and 6th in 3-point shooting (41%).  The Zips rank 5th in effective FG percentage (60.8%) and 7th in 3-point percentage (40.6%).  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Miami Heat +2.5

The Miami Heat have gotten healthy and are playing their best basketball of the season as a result.  They have gone 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.  They upset the Hawks by 15 as 3-point road dogs and the Pistons by 6 as 4.5-point road dogs, while also blowing out the Nuggets by 24 as 1.5-point home dogs and the Pacers by 26 as 6.5-point home favorites.

The Minnesota Timberwolves are struggling right now going 1-3 SU in their last four games overall.  That includes a 16-point home loss to the Nets as 12-point favorites.  Their only win came against the Bulls, where both Giddey and White got hurt early in the game and the Bulls had no chance without them.  The Timberwolves are coming off a 126-102 road loss to the Hawks as 6-point favorites.

The Heat are 12-5 SU at home this season with one of the better home-court advantages in the NBA.  They have the bigs in Adebayo and Ware who can match up with the Timberwolves' trio of Gobert, Reid and Randle.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet the Heat Saturday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Hawks/Raptors OVER 232.5

The Atlanta Hawks are a dead nuts OVER team.  They have gone 16-9 OVER in their last 25 games overall finishing with 245 or more combined points in 14 of their last 24 games.  It doesn't matter if Trae Young is there or not, they still play fast, efficient offense and poor defense.

I think this total has been set lower than it should be due to the Hawks coming off a low-scoring game against the Knicks last night.  But the Knicks didn't have Towns and were lost offensively without him.  The Knicks shot 9-of-42 (21%) from 3 and 37% from the field without him.

The Raptors profile as more of an OVER team right now playing more small ball without C Jakob Poeltl.  They just got RJ Barrett back from injury, and their offense is much more efficient with him running the show.

This total has also been set too low due to the Raptors coming off a pair of unders against the Nuggets and Magic.  But the Nuggets were without four starters including Jokic, while the Magic were without two starters in Wagner and Suggs.

The Hawks and Raptors have combined for at least 241 points in five of their last seven meetings.  This total of 232.5 is too short tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Celtics/Clippers NBA TV Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles ML -120

The Los Angeles Clippers are playing their best basketball of the season right now.  They have gone 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall with all six victories coming by 13 points or more.  That includes wins over playoff contenders in the Lakers by 15, the Rockets by 20 and the Pistons by 13.

The Clippers cannot afford to take a foot off the gas after they got off to such a rough start this season.  I expect them to keep it rolling against the Celtics, who could get the LA flu after staying in Los Angeles overnight after a road win at short-handed Sacramento on Thursday.

It will also be the 5th road game in 9 days for the Celtics as they are a tired team coming into this one.  They have feasted on an easy schedule during this road trip as the first four games came against non-playoff contenders.  This is a big step up in class for them tonight.

The Clippers also want revenge from a 121-118 road loss to the Celtics on November 16th in their first meeting this season.  They didn't even have Kawhi Leonard in that game, and he's playing at an MVP level now scoring at least 28 points in all six games during this six-game winning streak. Bet the Clippers on the Money Line Saturday.

15* NBA Western Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Jazz/Warriors OVER 238.5

The Utah Jazz are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 4th in pace and dead last (30th) in defensive rating.  The Jazz and their opponents have combined for at least 241 points in nine of their last 10 games overall.  This total of 238.5 is too short for a game involving Utah right now.

The Jazz should get back Markkanen and/or George tonight after both sat out last game against the Clippers.  The Warriors should get back Steph Curry tonight after he sat out last night against the Thunder.  Curry is the key to their offense as they are an OVER team with him in the lineup.

The Warriors and Jazz combined for 251 points in their first meeting this season.  They also combined for 259 points in their final meeting last season.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Seahawks/49ers NFC West No-Brainer on OVER 47.5

The San Francisco 49ers are 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall.  This run has coincided with getting Brock Purdy back healthy, and he leads the NFL in QBR (77.6).  Purdy has this San Francisco offense humming with an average of 35.7 points per game during this six-game winning streak.  

He threw 5 TD passes in a 48-27 win at Indianapolis for 75 combined points two weeks ago.  He accounted for 5 more TD's in a 42-38 shootout win over the Bears last week and 80 combined points.  The 49ers are 6-2 OVER in their last eight games overall going for 58 or more combined points in six of those eight games.  This total of 47.5 is too short for a game involving the 49ers right now.

The 49ers have a mediocre defense without Warner and Bosa.  They have managed to patch it together, but against the elite offenses of the NFL they have given up a lot of points.  In their last three games, they gave up 24 points to a bad Tennessee offense, 27 points to Philip Rivers and a bad Indy offense, and 38 points to Caleb Williams and the Bears last week.  CB Upton Stout suffered a concussion in that game and likely won't be available this week.

What was amazing about the 49ers hanging 42 points and 496 total yards on the Bears last week was that was a Chicago defense that had been playing better and had been as healthy as they had been for basically all season.  The 49ers also did it without two of their best players on offense in TE George Kittle and LT Trent Williams.  Kittle said he'll be back for this game, and Williams is questionable.  Purdy owns the Seahawks, going 6-1 SU in his career against them.

The Seahawks will get their offense going this week.  They put up 27 points on the Panthers on the road last week, and that followed up a 38-37 shootout win over the Rams at home for 75 combined points.  No question the Seahawks have a solid defense, but they did give up 581 total yards to the Rams, who were without Devante Adams in that game.  The 49ers are nearly as explosive as the Rams.  The Seahawks also lost starting SS Coby Bryant (66 tackles, 4 INT) to injury against Carolina and he will be out for this game.

Seattle is fully healthy on offense with the exception of LT Charles Cross, but that won't be an issue against the 49ers, who have the worst pass rush in the NFL since losing Bosa.  The Seahawks get back WR Rashid Shaheed from a concussion suffered in a big game against the Rams.  He had a 31-yard run and a 58-yard punt return TD.  The Seahawks traded for him at the deadline and he is a big playmaker with speed that they need.

A big reason this total was bet down from an opener of 49.5 is because of the forecast, which is calling for rain throughout the game.  But there is supposed to be less than 1/4 of an inch of rain during the game, so I'm not concerned about it at all.  Both offenses are going to get their tonight and whoever is down late is going to keep coming with the NFC West title and No. 1 seed at stake.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Panthers/Bucs NFC South No-Brainer on Tampa Bay -3

It's easy to see there's value on the Bucs -3 in Week 18.  They were 3-point road favorites at Carolina in their first meeting just two weeks ago, and now they are only 3-point home favorites in the rematch.  It's time to 'buy low' on the Bucs this week.

They are 1-7 SU & 0-8 ATS in their last eight games overall so bettors want nothing to do with them.  That's the time you want to back a team when everyone is off of them.  The Bucs have lost four straight coin flip games all by 4 points or fewer.  They outgained three of their four opponents, so they were the better team in the stats but came up on the wrong end of the scoreboard.

What I like about the Bucs is that they are about as healthy as they have been all season right now.  Baker Mayfield gets LT Triston Wirfs back this week after he sat out last week, and this offense is fully healthy and capable of hanging a big number on Carolina.  The Bucs are also pretty healthy on defense and will activate their best pass rusher in Calijah Kancey from IR this week.  They are really only missing a couple guys in the secondary now.

I don't think this young Panthers team is ready for this moment to go on the road and dethrone the Bucs, who have owned this division and come up clutch late in the season year after year.  I think they have one more clutch game in them to keep their hopes alive for winning the NFC South.

Of course, the Falcons could beat the Saints on Sunday and ruin that, but the Bucs know they have to handle their business first on Saturday for it to even matter.  The Panthers have the luxury of knowing they can lose this game and still win the division if Atlanta beat New Orleans as a 3.5-point home favorite on Sunday.  The Bucs are in true 'must win' mode, while the Panthers are now.

The Panthers had a chance to clinch the division last week and fell flat on their faces in a 27-10 home loss to the Seahawks.  Their offense was held to 139 total yards by Seattle in a game that was every bit as big of a blowout as the final score showed even though it was close for a while.  This Carolina offense has averaged just 231.7 yards per game in its last three games and is broken.

The Panthers won't get back RG Robert Hunt this week, one of their best offensive linemen.  They also lost starting TE Ja'Tavion Sanders to the IR with an injury suffered last week.  Defensively, they will be without two starting LB's in Claudin Cherelus and Trevin Wallace, plus they have some cluster injuries in the secondary.  DE Tershawn Wharton is questionable as well.

Baker Mayfield is 5-1 SU in his career against the Panthers including 3-0 SU at home.  Bryce Young is 4-9 SU when facing an opponent the Panthers beat in their previous meeting.  Mayfield and the Bucs will be ready for the moment today while Young and the Panthers will not.  Bet the Bucs Saturday.