Jack Jones

Jack's Free Pick Wednesday: Giants/Diamondbacks OVER 8.5

The Arizona Diamondbacks really profile as an OVER team scoring 4.6 runs per game and allowing 4.7 runs per game this season.  They have gone for 10 or more combined runs in five of their last seven games overall.

After going for 14 combined runs and 24 combined hits in Game 1 of this series, we fell just short of the over 8.5 in Game 2 with 8 runs and 18 hits.  I'll hop back on the OVER here given the poor quality of both starting pitchers in this one.

Tyler Mahle is 1-5 with a 5.59 ERA and 1.56 WHIP in nine starts for the Giants this season.  He has been at his worst on the road, going 0-3 with an 8.38 ERA and 1.97 WHIP in four starts away from home while allowing 18 earned runs and 5 homers in 19 1/3 innings.

Merrill Kelly is 3-3 with a 5.91 ERA and 1.54 WHIP in six starts for the Diamondbacks this season.  He has allowed 23 earned runs and 7 homers in 35 innings.  Kelly is 1-1 with a 7.15 ERA and 1.68 WHIP in two home starts as well.

The OVER is 14-7 in the last 21 meetings between the Diamondbacks and Giants.  They have combined for at least 9 runs in nine of their last 12 meetings in Arizona.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

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15* Rangers/Rockies MLB Early ANNIHILATOR on Texas -119

The Texas Rangers have outscored the Rockies 16-7 and out hit them 26 to 10 thus far in this series.  It should be more of the same today given their big advantage on the mound and at the plate in this one.  They have scored 6 runs or more in five of their last seven games overall.

Jack Leiter has been solid with a 4.35 ERA and 1.33 WHIP in nine starts this season with 55 K's in 49 2/3 innings.  Leiter allowed one earned run in 6 innings of a 4-1 win over the Rockies in his lone career start against them.  He is backed by the best bullpen in baseball with Texas having a 2.92 ERA as a bullpen this season.

Kyle Freeland is 1-5 with a 7.22 ERA and 1.66 WHIP in seven starts this season, including 1-2 with an 8.79 ERA and 1.88 WHIP in three home starts.  Freeland has allowed a whopping 23 earned runs and 6 homers in 18 innings in his last four starts.  He has allowed 11 runs, 8 earned, in 8 innings in his last two starts against Texas.  Bet the Rangers Wednesday.

20* A's/Angels MLB Late-Night BAILOUT on A's -118

The A's should be bigger favorites over the faltering Angels tonight.  The Angels are just 6-22 in their last 28 games overall while scoring 2 runs or fewer in 18 of those 28 games.  The A's have outscored the Angels 15-8 and out hit them 22 to 12 thus far in this series.  It should be more of the same tonight.

The A's have a big advantage on the mound with Aaron Civale, who is 5-1 with a 2.70 ERA in nine starts this season, including 3-0 with a 2.08 ERA in five road starts.  Civale is 2-0 with a 2.60 ERA and 0.75 WHIP in his last three starts against the Angels, allowing 5 earned runs and 13 base runners in 17 1/3 innings.  He is 3-0 with a 1.96 ERA in three career starts in Los Angeles.

Jack Kochanowicz has been absolutely rocked in his last two starts, allowing 12 earned runs and 3 homers in 10 innings.  He is 0-1 with an 11.25 ERA and 2.63 WHIP in two career starts against the A's, allowing 10 earned runs, 3 homers and 21 base runners in 8 innings.  Bet the A's Wednesday.

15* Brewers/Cubs NL Central ANNIHILATOR on Chicago -113

The Chicago Cubs will be highly motivated for a victory tonight after losing the first two games in this series to the Milwaukee Brewers, who have overtaken them for 1st place in the NL Central.  The Cubs will be desperate to avoid the sweep and I like their chances of taking Game 3 as a short home favorite.

Edward Caberara is 3-1 with a 4.06 ERA in nine starts this season, including 2-0 with a 3.60 ERA in five home starts.  Cabrera has owned the Brewers, going 1-1 with a 1.80 ERA and 0.80 WHIP in three career starts against them, allowing just 3 earned runs and 12 base runners in 15 innings.

Kyle Harrison is clearly due some regression after opening 4-1 with a 2.09 ERA in eight starts this season, including 2-0 with a 2.51 ERA in three road starts.  He has a 4.01 ERA for his career in the big leagues.  The Cubs are hitting .270 and scoring 5.0 runs per 9 innings against left-handed pitchers this season.  Bet the Cubs Wednesday.

20* MLB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Mets/Nationals OVER 9.5

The Nationals are a dead nuts OVER team.  They have gone 31-15-3 OVER in all games this season.  They are scoring 5.5 runs per game and allowing 5.9 runs per game.  They just went for 14, 15 and 16 combined runs with the Reds in their three games series, and 16 combined runs with the Orioles in Game 2 and 10 combined runs in Game 3 last series.  

They went for 23 combined runs with the Mets in Game 1 and 15 runs in Game 2.  So they have gone for 10 or more combined runs in seven of their last eight games, and this total of 9.5 is too short for a game involving Washington right now.  Especially with it being hot again tonight in Washington DC with temps in the 80's.

The Mets are 6-1-1 OVER in their last eight games overall.  They are getting healthier and heating up at the plate scoring 6 runs or more in six of those eight games.  They are averaging 7.4 runs per game in those eight games.  Both bullpens are taxed tonight after going 12 innings in Game 1.

Zach Thornton will be making his MLB debut tonight for the Mets and I don't expect it to go well for him.  He'll be opposed by one of the worst starters in baseball in Zack Littell, who is 2-4 with a 6.10 ERA and 1.50 WHIP in six starts and three relief appearances this season.  Littell has allowed 28 earned runs and a whopping 14 homers in 41 1/3 innings.  Littell allowed 8 runs, 4 earned, and 2 homers in 3 2/3 innings in his lone start against the Mets this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* Spurs/Thunder Game 2 No-Brainer on Oklahoma City -6.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder were certainly rusty in Game 1 when they lost outright to the San Antonio Spurs.  I was on the Spurs in Game 1 for the rust factor, but now I'm on the Thunder in Game 2 as they should be much sharper in the 2nd game back from having a week off since sweeping the Lakers.

The Thunder also had to implement Jalen Williams back into the lineup which was an adjustment after he missed all but the first two games of the playoffs.  Williams had 26 points in his return in Game 1, and the Thunder are a much more potent team with him than without him.  Look for their role players to step it up more in Game 2 tonight too.

This is where the extra rest will work in OKC's favor.  These teams are coming off a double-OT Game 1.  The Thunder won't feel the effects from it after getting a week off prior.  They are also one of the deepest teams in the NBA.  The spot really favors the Thunder tonight.

The Spurs only had two games off since beating the Timberwolves in six games.  It didn't affect them for Game 1, but it will surely affect them for Game 2 considering how many minutes their starters played in Game 1.  Vasssell played 50 minutes, Cassell 49, Wembenyama 48, Harper 46 and Champaignie 44.  Keldon Johnson was their biggest contributor off the bench.  They were without De'Aaron Fox for Game 1 and he may sit Game 2 as well with an ankle injury now that they won Game 1.  Bet the Thunder in Game 2 Wednesday.