Jack Jones

Jack's Free Pick Sunday: Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 (-115)

The Brewers were crushed in a 9-2 loss to the Astros yesterday.  They get their revenge today and win Game 3 by multiple runs to take this series.  They have such a big advantage on the mound in this one that it screams blowout in their favor.

The Astros have one of the most injured lineups in baseball.  Now they must face arguably the best starter in the National League in Jacob Misiorowski.  He is 5-2 with a 1.83 ERA and 0.83 WHIP in 11 starts this season with a whopping 100 K's in 64 innings.  Misiorowski has allowed just one earned run in 31 1/3 innings with 49 K's in his last five starts for a 0.29 ERA.

Tatsuya Imai has had trouble adjusting to the majors.  He is 2-2 with a 6.17 ERA and 1.50 WHIP in six starts for the Astros this season.  Imai has allowed 16 earned runs in 23 1/3 innings, including 10 earned runs in 6 2/3 innings in two home starts.

The Brewers have the better lineup and the better bullpen as well.  They have a 3.32 ERA as a bullpen compared to a 5.26 ERA for the Astros.  Bet the Brewers on the Run Line Sunday.

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15* MLB Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Arizona Diamondbacks +135

The Arizona Diamondbacks are 10-3 in their last 13 games overall.  They have a red hot offense scoring 5 runs or more in nine of those 13 games.  But they have lost the first two games of this series to the light-hitting Mariners, and they will be highly motivated to avoid the sweep by taking Game 3 today.

Merrill Kelly has been dominant in his last four starts where the Diamondbacks have gone 4-0.  He has allowed just 7 earned runs in 29 innings in those four starts for a 2.17 ERA during this stretch.  He has posted a 1.54 ERA in his last two starts against Seattle, allowing 2 earned runs in 11 2/3 innings.

Bryce Miller consistently gets too much respect for Seattle.  Miller went 4-6 with a 5.68 ERA and 1.41 WHIP in 18 starts for the Mariners last season.  He is working his way back from injury now and making just his 3rd start of the season.  He will be on a pitch count again today.  Bet the Diamondbacks Sunday.

15* Cubs/Cardinals NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on OVER 8.5

The Cubs finally got their bats going in Pittsburgh last series.  They scored 10 runs in Game 2 and 7 runs in Game 3 off of Paul Skenes, who is one of the best starters in baseball.  They had 5 runs in Game 1 and 6 runs in Game 2 of this series with the Cardinals, so they have scored 5 runs or more in four consecutive games now.

Temps will be in the 80's tonight in St. Louis so the ball should be flying out.  The Cardinals really profile as an OVER team scoring 4.3 runs per game and allowing 4.6 runs per game.  The Cubs are similar scoring 4.8 runs per game and allowing 4.4 runs per game.  This total of 8.5 is simply too short tonight.

The Cubs are down to Jordan Wicks needing to make a start tonight due to injury.  Wicks allowed 8 earned runs in 4 1/3 innings of a 12-1 loss to the Pirates in his lone start this season.  He is 6-7 with a 5.71 ERA and 1.55 WHIP in 99 1/3 innings in his career in the big leagues.

Matthew Liberatore is 2-3 with a 4.76 ERA and 1.57 WHIP in 11 starts for the Cardinals this season.  He has allowed 30 earned runs, 10 homers and 89 base runners in 56 2/3 innings.  That includes 1-1 with a 5.16 ERA in six home starts.

The OVER is 7-4 in the last 11 meetings with 10 or more combined runs in seven of them.  The OVER is 15-7 in the last 22 meetings with 8 or more combined runs in 18 of those 22 meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* MLB Sunday Afternoon Line Mistake on Braves/Reds OVER 8.5

Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati is one of the most hitter-friendly parks in baseball.  The Reds are a dead nuts OVER team going 35-21-1 OVER in all games this season.  They are scoring 4.4 runs per game and allowing 5.0 runs per game.

The Braves have one of the best offenses in baseball.  They are scoring 5.3 runs per game this season.  They have scored 7 runs or more in three of their last five games and are capable of covering this total on their own today.

Nick Lodolo is 1-1 with a 5.57 ERA and 1.38 WHIP in four starts this season allowing 13 earned runs and 5 homers in 21 innings. That includes 0-1 with an 8.68 ERA and 1.61 WHIP in two home starts, allowing 9 earned runs and 3 homers in 9 1/3 innings.  He is backed by a poor Cincinnati bullpen with a 4.87 ERA this season.

Spencer Strider continually gets too much respect.  Strider is 3-0 with a 3.46 ERA in five starts this season.  He has allowed 6 earned runs and 5 homers in 11 1/3 innings in his last two starts.  He allowed 3 earned runs in 5 innings in his last start against Cincinnati.  The OVER is 12-4 in Strider's last 16 starts, and we've seen 9 or more combined runs in 12 of his last 17 starts.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* AL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Yankees/A's OVER 10

Sutter Health Park has been one of the most hitter-friendly parks in baseball since the A's moved there last season.  And with temps approaching 90 and almost no wind today, it will be even more favorable conditions for hitters than normal.

The Yankees have one of the best offenses in baseball scoring 5.0 runs per game.  They should crush Jacob Lopez, who is 4-2 with a 5.73 ERA and 1.75 WHIP in 11 games this season.  Lopez has allowed 31 earned runs, 11 homers and 85 base runners in 48 2/3 innings.

Will Warren is 6-1 with a 3.55 ERA in 11 starts for the Yankees this season allowing 28 runs, 23 earned, and 7 homers in 58 1/3 innings.  Warren allowed 2 earned runs and 8 base runners in 4 2/3 innings in his last start against the A's on April 8th.  The A's should get to him and this shaky New York bullpen.

The OVER is 7-0 in the last seven meetings in Oakland with 10 or more combined runs in all seven meetings.  That includes 10, 10, 12, 14 and 18 combined runs in the last five meetings at Sutter Health Park.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* NL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Padres/Nationals OVER 9

The Washington Nationals are a dead nuts OVER team.  They have gone 37-19-3 OVER in all games this season while scoring 5.4 runs per game and allowing 5.4 runs per game.  The Padres have been much more potent offensively away from pitcher-friendly Petco Park this season.  The first two games in this series saw 12 and 13 combined runs, and it should be more of the same today.

The Padres are capable of covering this total on their own against Zack Littell and this awful Washington bullpen.  Littell is 4-4 with a 5.23 ERA and 1.39 WHIP in 11 games this season, allowing 38 runs, 31 earned, and a whopping 15 homers in 53 1/3 innings.  The Nationals have a 4.60 ERA as a bullpen.

Washington should also hang a big number in Griffin Canning, who is 0-3 with a 7.54 ERA and 1.55 WHIP in five starts this season.  Canning has allowed 19 earned runs and 4 homers in 22 2/3 innings.  He allowed 4 earned runs and 2 homers in 5 1/3 innings in his last start against the Nationals.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.