Jack Jones

Jack's Free Pick Wednesday: Wizards/Pacers OVER 227.5

The Pacers play fast and play little defense with or without Tyrese Haliburton.  They rank 5th in pace this season despite only playing four of their 11 games with Haliburton in the lineup.  They still have plenty of offensive talent with Siakam, Nembhard, Toppin, Nesmith and Jackson all averaging double figures scoring.  And they are pretty much fully healthy now with the exception of Haliburton.

The Pacers are coming off a 125-122 loss to the Mavericks that saw 247 combined points.  This total of 227.5 is pretty short for a game involving the Pacers, especially when you consider tonight's opponent.  The Washington Wizards don't play much defense, either.

The Wizards are as healthy as they have been all season right now and have plenty of offensive talent.  Anthony Davis (25.7 PPG) and Trae Young (18.5 PPG, 8.7 APG) are gaining chemistry with each game.  Kyshawn George (17.9 PPG) has taken a leap this season, and No. 1 pick AJ Dybansta (16.7 PPG) is only going to continue to get better.

The Wizards went for 271 combined points with the Hawks and 233 with the Pistons in two of their last three games.  This total should be in the 230's tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

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15* USC/Cal ESPN 2 Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 161.5

USC is loaded with one of the most talented rosters in the country.  Eric Musselman finally has all the players he wants in place in Year 3.  Musselman plays a fast-paced style of basketball with his team ranking 23rd in adjusted tempo to this point, and he has the players to do it efficiently.

The Trojans beat Milwaukee 95-63 and Wichita State 93-86 to start the season.  What was most impressive about putting 93 points on Wichita State was the fact that they shot just 14.3% from 3-point range yet still scored that many.

The guard duo of Alijah Arenas (25.5 PPG) and Rodney Rice (23.5 PPG) could be the best in the country.  F Adonis Ratliff (17.5 PPG, 9.5 RPG) and brother Darius Ratliff (10.5 PPG) were the 9th and 37th ranked freshman recruits in the country, respectively.  Georgetown transfer KJ Lewis (7.5 PPG) averaged 14.9 PPG last season.

Cal brought in Wright State transfer Michael Cooper (19.7 PPG) who averaged 13.4 PPG last year.  Pitt transfer Nojus Indrusaitis (18.7 PPG) averaged 9.1 PPG last year.  Georgia transfer Jordan Ross (11.7 PPG, 7.0 APG) is leading the offense.

Cal opened with a 115-86 win over Adams State and followed it up with a 84-70 win over Radford.  They lost 86-68 to Houston last time out.  USC is going to hang at least 86 on Cal in this one too, and I expect the Bears to do their part as well to contribute to this OVER.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Boise State -16

Leon Rice enters his 17th season at Boise State coming off a 20-12 campaign last season.  The Broncos are off to an impressive 2-0 start with a 132-53 win over West Coast Baptist in their opener and a 100-81 home win over Butler as 2.5-point favorites.

The Broncos have seven players averaging double figures scoring and tremendous balance and shooting.  They are making 43.3% from 3-point range.  Neto (17.5 PPG, 6.5 APG) and Ahrens (17.0 PPG) have both made big leaps from limited playing time as freshmen to starters as sophomores.  Lithuanian F Dovydas Butka (16.0 PPG, 11.5 RPG) averaged 13.9 PPG & 8.5 RPG at Campbell last season.  NDSU transfer G Damari Wheeler-Thomas (14.5 PPG, 4.0 APG) is the lead dog that Rice covets and finished 2nd-team All-Summit League last season.  Pearson Carmichael (11. 0 PPG) is their top returning starter and a deadly shooter.

But this is as much a play against Oakland as it is a play on Boise State.  The Golden Grizzlies have been through a gauntlet to start the season and simply cannot have much left in the tank for Boise State.  They lost by 16 at Michigan, by 18 at Stanford, by 23 at UCSB and by 41 at Alabama.  They will be playing their 4th game in 6 days here along with all the travel that comes with playing five straight road games to start the season.

The Golden Grizzlies have progressively gotten worse going 0-3 ATS in their last three games with a bigger margin of loss in all three games from 18 to 23 and 41 points.  They only have two reliable scorers in Chris Fields Jr. (17.3 PPG) and Nassim Mashhour (15.5 PPG).  Nobody else has averaged more than 7.0 PPG for them, and all but three players average 5.0 PPG or fewer.  Oakland had to replace all five starters from last season who all average at least 9.9 PPG.  This is a rebuilding team that is not ready for this kind of competition this early.  Bet Boise State Wednesday.

20* CBB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Arkansas -30.5

John Calipari brought int the top recruiting class in the country this season.  After a 106-61 win over Arkansas-Pine Bluff in the opener, this young group was humbled in a 91-72 loss to Virginia on a neutral.  That's an experienced Virginia team that is one of the best in the country.  After the humbling, I fully expect the Razorbacks to roll at home tonight.

This is the perfect storm because while I'm high on Arkansas, I'm also extremely low on Robert Morris this season.  That's because the Colonials were gutted after a 22-11 season losing all five starters from that team.  They are starting over, and it's not off to a good start.

Robert Morris was blasted 86-49 by Nevada as 12.5-point road dogs in their opener.  They came back with an equally disastrous 79-56 loss at Illinois-Chicago as 10.5-point dogs.  They weren't competitive in either game, and now they take another big step up in class here on the road against a motivated Arkansas team.  They lost by 37 to Nevada and will likely lose by more than that to the Razorbacks.  Bet Arkansas Wednesday.

20* CBB Wednesday UPSET SHOCKER on North Texas ML +105

Daniyal Robinson led North Texas to a 19-14 season in his first season on the job last year.  Now Robinson has three starters back in G Stevenson (17.3 PPG, 2.0 SPG), G Franklin (6.2 PPG) and F Robinson (7.5 PPG, 4.5 RPG).  They added FAU transfer G Casmir Chavis and top freshman recruit F Aeneas Alexander.

The Mean Green have been impressive in beating Southwestern Christian 122-50 in their opener and following it up with a 77-67 upset win over a very good McNeese State team last time out.  Stevenson (22.5 PPG) is one of the best players in the country.  Newcomers Alexander (16.0 PPG, 7.0 RPG)) and Chavis (14.5 PPG) have been impressive.

Santa Clara is 3-0 with three lackluster home wins over Towson by 19, Milwaukee by 23 and Sacramento State by 6 as 19.5-point favorites.  Now the Broncos take a big step up in class here and also play their first true road game of the season.

Santa Clara lost its three best players in G Hammond (15.6 PPG), F Mahi (14.1 PPG) and C Oboye (7.9 PPG) from last season.  They don't have a single returnee who averaged double figures scoring last year and are primed to take a big step back after a 26-8 season last year.  They are overvalued due to how they did last year, but this team isn't nearly on that level.  They should not be favored on the road at North Texas tonight.  Bet North Texas on the Money Line Wednesday.

15* Thunder/Blazers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 225.5

I was on the OVER 224 between the Thunder and Blazers last night.  I barely cashed it with a 123-103 win by Portland and 226 combined points.  I'm reversing course tonight and playing the UNDER 225.5 because I don't think this total should be adjusted up in this spot.

This is one of my favorite spots to back an UNDER in the NBA.  It's when teams play each other in consecutive games either in consecutive nights or for the 2nd time in 3 days.  Familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games.  These teams know each other inside and out now and that will make it much easier to play defense now that they know what to expect.

The Thunder were already short-handed and now will be without Ajay Mitchell (16.0 PPG) tonight.  That puts them without three of their top five scorers.  I wouldn't be surprised to see the Blazers rest someone too on this 2nd of a back-to-back.  I think this game will be played at a much slower pace than it was last night because defenses have the advantage over the offenses.  And both teams are on more tired legs and not looking to run as much.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

20* MAC TOTAL OF THE WEEK on UMass/Toledo OVER 51.5

Toledo has the best offense in the MAC.  The Rockets are scoring 35.4 points per game, averaging 455.3 yards per game and 6.5 yards per play.  They also play fast ranking 28th in tempo snapping the ball every 24.5 seconds.

There's no question Toledo is going to hang a big number on this UMass defense tonight.  The Rockets are scoring 41.2 points per game at home this season.  They are also averaging 500.4 yards per game and 6.7 yards per play at home.

While this UMass defense is improved this season, it has also benefited from a pretty easy schedule of opposing offenses.  But when the Minutemen have stepped up in class, they haven't fared very well.  They did give up 38 points to EMU and 30 to Ball State, which aren't even good offenses.  Against the best offense they faced in UConn, they allowed 35 points, 438 yards and 6.7 per play.  Toledo will be the best offense UMass has faced all season.

But I believe UMass has the offense that can keep pace with Toledo in this one.  That's especially the case with QB Pop Watson III back healthy.  Watson is completing 69.3% of his passes for 1,327 yards with a 9-to-2 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 6 scores on the ground.  

The Minutemen have been so much more potent offensively when Watson has been in the lineup this season.  They have put up at least 31 points in five of the six games that Watson has started and finished.  I really only need them to get into the 20's tonight, because I expect Toledo to score 35-plus in this one.

Toledo is 6-3 OVER in all games this season with 48 or more combined points in seven of those nine games, and 57 or more in seven of them.  The forecast looks fine tonight with temps around 50, only 10 MPH winds and a small chance of rain.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Los Angeles Lakers -14

The Lakers are 10-2 SU & 9-3 ATS this season and one of the most underrated teams in the NBA.  They are fully healthy tonight with Luka Doncic (39.3 PPG, 7.9 APG, 7.8 RPG) and Austin Reaves (25.3 PPG, 4.6 APG) both ready to go.  And Walker Kessler (14.9 PPG, 10.8 RPG) has been everything they hoped for and more.

The spot really favors the Lakers.  They had yesterday off and have three more days off after this game against Milwaukee, so they should be 'all in' to get a win.  There should be no letdown knowing they have three days off after this, and it's going to take a letdown for Milwaukee to be remotely competitive.

The Bucks rank 29th in net rating this season at -14.7.  Only the Bulls have been worse.  You could see it coming as this is one of the worst rosters in the NBA after trading away Giannis.  The Bucks are just 1-10 SU & 3-8 ATS this season with eight of those 10 losses coming by double-digits, so they have been blown out on the regular.

The Bucks have really struggled when facing teams the caliber of the Lakers.  They lost by 32 to the Rockets, by 25 to the Cavs, by 20 to the Celtics and by 32 to the Knicks last night.  Now the Bucks will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and could sit more players.  They already ruled out Myles Turner, and leading scorer Tyler Herro (21.4 PPG) is questionable.  I don't think it will matter as the Lakers win this one in a rout.  Bet the Lakers Wednesday.