Jack Jones

Jack's Free Pick Saturday: Twins/Padres OVER 8

The Minnesota Twins are a dead nuts OVER team going 71-56-2 OVER in all games.  They are scoring 4.6 runs per game and allowing 5.0 runs per game.  They are as healthy as they've been all season offensively and it is showing.  They have scored at least 4 runs in four of their last five contests.

The Padres are also going through their best offensive stretch of the season to help get them back in playoff contention.  They have scored at least 3 runs in 13 of their last 16 games.  Look for both offenses to have their way with these two suspect starting pitchers tonight.

Dean Kremer is 2-4 with a 5.40 ERA in 10 starts between the Orioles and Twins this season.  He is 0-3 with a 7.20 ERA in five road starts, allowing 20 earned runs in 25 innings.  Kremer is backed by a poor Minnesota bullpen with a 4.69 ERA this season.

No question Casey Mize is having one of his best seasons at 5-7 with a 3.18 ERA in 19 starts.  But Mize does not enjoy facing the Twins dating back to his time with the Tigers.  He is 4-5 with a 5.34 ERA in 12 career starts against Minnesota.  Mize has allowed 9 earned runs in 10 2/3 innings in his last two starts against the Twins.

The OVER is 6-0-1 in the last seven meetings between the Padres and Twins.  They have gone for 8 or more combined runs in eight consecutive meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

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15* Interleague PLAY OF THE DAY on Mets/White Sox OVER 8

The forecast will aid us in cashing this OVER 8 ticket between the Mets and White Sox tonight.  Temps will be in the 70's with 10 MPH winds blowing out to center.  The White Sox have one of the best offenses in baseball scoring 4.8 runs per game.  The Mets are going through their best offensive stretch of the season, scoring 4 runs or more in 11 of their last 16 games overall.

Christian Scott is 4-3 with a 3.51 ERA and 1.29 WHIP in 18 starts for the Mets this season.  But he is starting to wear down in his first full season as a starter.  Scott has allowed 3 earned runs or more in four of his last five starts with a 5.04 ERA during this stretch.

It's surprising the White Sox traded for a washed up Luis Castillo and added him to their rotation.  Castillo is 4-9 with a 4.99 ERA and 1.36 WHIP In 20 starts and three relief appearances this season.  He has allowed at least 3 earned runs in five of his last six starts.  Castillo allowed 6 earned runs and 3 homers in 4 innings of an 11-9 loss to the Mets in his last start against them.  He has a 4.98 ERA in six career starts against New York.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on Rays/Orioles OVER 8

This total of 8 is too short between the Rays and Orioles tonight.  The Rays and Orioles have combined for at least 7 runs in nine consecutive meetings, and 8 or more runs in seven of them.

Shane McLanahan managed to go just 3 1/3 innings allowing 3 earned runs in a 7-6 win over the Orioles on August 17th in his return from injury.  He only threw 57 pitches and will be on a pitch count again.  Getting to see McLanahan for the 2nd time in less than a week will be a big advantage to Baltimore hitters.  The OVER is 8-3-1 in McLanahan's 12 career starts against the Orioles.

Brandon Young was opposite McLanahan in that 7-6 win by the Rays on August 17th less than a week ago.  He was worse, allowing 4 earned runs, 3 homers and 9 base runners in 4 innings of that 7-6 defeat.  Getting to see Young for the 2nd time in less than a week is also a big advantage to Tampa Bay hitters.  

The Rays are 8-2-1 OVER in their last 11 games overall finishing with 8 or more combined runs in nine of those 11 games, and 11 or more in eight of them.  The Orioles are 6-5-1 OVER in their last 12 games overall finishing with 8 or more combined runs in eight of them.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* NL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Cardinals/Phillies OVER 9

The Phillies have been an offensive juggernaut since trading for Luis Arraez.  The Phillies have scored 4 runs or more in 19 of their last 21 games overall, including 6 runs or more in six of their last seven.  The Cardinals have been much more potent offensively since calling up Joshau Baez.  They have scored at least 5 runs in nine of their last 14 games.

The Phillies should stay hot against rookie Quinn Matthews, who will be making just his 3rd career start tonight.  He is 0-1 with a 3.00 ERA and 1.56 WHIP while allowing 3 earned runs and 14 base runners in 9 innings.

Andrew Painter is the weakest link in Philadelphia's rotation.  He is 2-8 with a 6.43 ERA and 1.54 WHIP in 16 starts and two relief appearances this season, allowing 61 earned runs and 17 homers in 85 1/3 innings.  He just faced the Cardinals on August 10th allowing 2 earned runs in 5 1/3 innings of a 6-5 win.  Getting to see him for the 2nd time in less than two weeks is an advantage for St. Louis hitters.

Both bullpens leave a lot to be desired with Philadelphia having a 4.27 ERA and St. Louis a 4.28 ERA this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* NFLX Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Baltimore Ravens +3.5

No Analysis for preseason.

15* NFLX Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Indianapolis Colts -3.5

No Analysis for preseason.

20* NFLX TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Bears/Bengals OVER 36.5

No Analysis for preseason.

20* NFLX GAME OF THE WEEK on New Orleans Saints -1

No Analysis for preseason.