Jack Jones

Jack's Free Pick Tuesday: Braves/Pirates OVER 8

The Pittsburgh Pirates have quietly been an OVER team this season with one of the most improved offenses in baseball.  They have gone 53-36-2 OVER in all games this season scoring 5.2 runs per game and allowing 4.9 runs per game.

Paul Skenes in particular has been overvalued for the Pirates.  The OVER is 11-7 in his 18 starts this season.  Skenes has allowed 11 earned runs in 9 innings in his last two starts coming in to fall to 6-8 with a 3.90 ERA this season.  He faces a potent Atlanta lineup that is scoring 4.9 runs per game this season.

Hurston Waldrep will be making his 2nd start of the season for the Braves.  Waldrep is 6-2 with a 4.33 ERA and 1.36 WHIP in 70 2/3 innings in his career in the big leagues.  He allowed 3 earned runs in 5 1/3 innings of a 11-5 loss to the Cardinals on July 2nd in his last start.

The Braves are 4-1 OVER in their last five games overall with 8 or more combined runs in all five games, including 13 or more runs in four of them.  The Pirates are 7-3 OVER in their last 10 games overall with 8 or more combined runs in nine of those 10 games, and 10 or more in seven of them.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

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Jack Jones has SIX Top-10 MLB Finishes (#4 2024, #8 2023, #5 2019, #6 2014, #6 2010, #4 2009) to his credit! He finished as the No. 8 Ranked MLB Capper in 2023 with his $1,000/game players up $21,110 in 2023! He backed it up by finishing as the No. 4 Ranked MLB Capper in 2024 with $1,000/game players up $34,230! He has delivered a 286-236 MLB Run since last season!

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25* Interleague TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Astros/Nationals OVER 9

The Washington Nationals are a dead nuts OVER team going 54-35-3 OVER in all games this season.  They are scoring 5.4 runs per game and allowing 5.3 runs per game.  The Astros are 49-41-3 OVER in all games this season scoring 4.6 runs per game and allowing 5.0 runs per game.

The Nationals beat the Astros 12-11 last night for 23 combined runs.  It will be more of the same tonight as both offenses will have their way with these two suspect starting pitchers and bullpens tonight.  The Nationals have a 5.06 ERA as a bullpen and a 5.80 ERA at home, while the Astros have a 4.30 ERA as a bullpen and a 4.48 ERA on the road.

Andrew Alvarez is 2-1 with a 3.05 ERA and 1.36 WHIP in five starts and six relief appearances this season.  He doesn't go deep into games as he is converted reliever, putting that much more pressure on this terrible Washington bullpen. Alvarez hasn't made it out of the 5th inning in any of his starts this season.

Tasuya Imai has been one of the worst starters in baseball this season.  He is 5-4 with a 6.14 ERA and 1.47 WHIP in 12 starts while allowing 33 earned runs in 48 1/3 innings.  He allowed 5 earned runs in 1 1/3 innings to the Twins in his last start.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* NL West TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Diamondbacks/Padres OVER 8.5

Two of the worst starters in baseball square off tonight when the Diamondbacks take on the Padres in Game 2 of this series.  The Diamondbacks have scored at least 4 runs in five of their last six games overall.  The Padres have scored at least 5 runs in six of their last 13 games overall.

Zac Gallen is 3-8 with a 6.65 ERA and 1.58 WHIP in 18 starts this season, including 0-4 with a 7.54 ERA and 1.70 WHIP in nine road starts.  He has allowed at least 4 earned runs in six of his last seven starts while going 0-4 with a 8.60 ERA while allowing 36 earned runs and 10 homers in 37 2/3 innings during this stretch.

German Marquez is 3-2 with a 5.79 ERA and 1.47 WHIP in six starts and one relief appearance this season.  He is 1-2 with a 10.38 ERA and 1.92 WHIP in three home starts, allowing 15 earned runs and 7 homers in 13 innings.  Marquez has allowed a whopping 18 earned runs in 13 innings for a 12.46 ERA in his last three starts against the Diamondbacks.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* MLB Tuesday Late-Night BAILOUT on Rockies/Dodgers OVER 9.5

The Dodgers have one of the best offenses in baseball scoring 5.3 runs per game.  The Colorado Rockies are hot at the plate scoring 6 runs or more in nine of their last 12 games overall.  The Dodgers beat the Rockies 8-7 in extra last night for 15 combined runs to really tax both bullpens as both teams used five different pitchers.  It will be another slug fest in Game 2 tonight.

The Dodgers are capable of covering this total on their own against Michael Lorenzen, who is 3-9 with a 6.91 ERA and 1.80 WHIP in 19 games this season allowing 66 earned runs and 155 base runners in 86 innings.  Lorenzen allowed 3 earned runs in 5 innings of a 9-6 win over the Dodgers in his lone start against them this season.

Justin Wrobleski is one of the biggest regression candidates in baseball as we head into the All-Star Break.  His 2.80 ERA in unsustainable when he is a contact pitcher with just 64 K's in 93 1/3 innings.  The red hot Rockies will do enough damage off him to contribute to us cashing this OVER 9.5 ticket.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.