Jack Jones

Jack's Free Pick Friday: Cubs/Pirates OVER 8

Two of the best offenses in the National League square off in Game 1 of this series between the Pittsburgh Pirates and Chicago Cubs in the NL Central.  The Pirates are scoring 5.3 runs per game this season with the most improved offense in baseball.  The Cubs are scoring 5.1 runs per game this season.

The Cubs have scored at least 6 runs in four of their last five games and a total of 34 runs during this stretch.  They should stay hot against Jared Jones, who is 2-1 with a 4.05 ERA in nine starts this season, including 0-0 with a 4.74 ERA in four home starts.  Jones has not enjoyed facing the Cubs, going 1-2 with a 5.24 ERA in four career starts against them while allowing 13 earned runs and 5 homers in 22 1/3 innings.

The Pirates continue to rake scoring 5 runs or more in 16 of their last 20 games overall.  They should also get to Matthew Boyd, who has posted a 4.15 ERA in 10 starts this season.  Boyd doesn't enjoy facing the Pirates, either, going 1-3 with a 6.18 ERA and 1.58 WHIP in eight career starts against them.  He is 0-2 with a 9.73 ERA and 2.41 WHIP in five career starts in Pittsburgh, allowing 22 earned runs and 49 base runners in 20 1/3 innings.  

The OVER is 4-1 in the last five meetings this season between the Cubs and Pirates with 9 or more combined runs in four of them, and 13 or more runs three times.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

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20* AL Friday Total DOMINATOR on A's/Twins OVER 9.5

The forecast will aid us in cashing this OVER 9.5 ticket tonight.  Temps will be in the 80's with 14 MPH winds blowing out to left for the first couple hours of this game.  The A's are scoring 4.5 runs per game and allowing 5.7 runs per game this season.

The Twins are a dead nuts OVER team going 61-42-1 OVER in all games this season.  They are scoring 4.8 runs per game and allowing 5.1 runs per game.  Both teams have terrible bullpens.  The A's have a 5.62 ERA as a bullpen while the Twins have a 5.02 ERA.

Jacob Lopez is one of the worst starters in baseball.  He is 4-4 with a 6.64 ERA and 1.71 WHIP in 12 starts and three relief appearances this season.  Lopez has allowed 44 earned runs, 11 homers and 102 base runners in 59 2/3 innings.

Zebby Matthews is 4-7 with a 5.40 ERA in 12 starts for the Twins this season. He has allowed 42 earned runs and 15 homers in 70 innings.  Matthews allowed 8 earned runs in 3 innings of a 10-1 loss to the Cubs in his last start on July 19th.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* MLB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Miami Marlins -130

I love the spot for the Miami Marlins tonight.  They are riding a 9-game losing streak, but they just had Thursday off to regroup.  The Padres don't have that same luxury as they played Thursday in a 6-5 road loss to the Braves in which they blew a 3-0 lead.  They haven't had a day off since the All-Star Break.

I'll gladly fade one of the worst starters in baseball in German Marquez, who is 4-2 with a 5.24 ERA and 1.55 WHIP in nine starts for the Padres this season.  He has allowed 26 earned runs, 11 homers and 69 base runners in 44 2/3 innings.  Marquez has allowed 9 earned runs, 3 homers and 21 base runners in 10 innings in his last two starts against the Marlins.

Ryan Gusto is 0-1 with a 2.70 ERA and 0.98 WHIP at home this season for the Marlins.  he has allowed 4 earned runs without a homer and 13 base runners in 13 1/3 innings.  He allowed just 2 earned runs in 5 innings in his last start against the Padres.  Miami is 31-20 at home this season.  Bet the Marlins Friday.

15* MLB Friday Night BLOWOUT on Detroit Tigers -1.5 (-115)

The Detroit Tigers are surging right now going 14-5 in their last 19 games overall with 12 of those 14 wins coming by 2 runs or more.  They have climbed back into contention in the AL Central, and I would argue they are the best team with a +29 run differential this season despite being 5 games below .500.  

The Royals are 43-61 and just playing out the string at this point.  Injuries have taken their toll as the Royals are without their best player in Bobby Witt Jr, and they are also without both Maikel Garcia and Jac Gaglione offensively due to injury.

Ace Tarik Skubal gets the ball for the Tigers.  He is 6-5 with a 2.83 ERA and 0.93 WHIP in 14 starts this season. Skubal has owned the Royals, tossing 14 shutout innings in his last two starts against them.  He is back to full strength and back to being one of the best starters in baseball allowing 4 earned runs in 23 innings with 32 K's in his last four starts.

Beck Way will be making his first career start for the Royals tonight.  He has made 18 appearances in relief this season with a 3.22 ERA and 1.52 WHIP.  Way will be backed by a terrible Kansas City bullpen with a 5.43 ERA on the season, including a 6.29 ERA on the road.  Bet the Tigers on the Run Line Friday.

15* MLB Friday Night Line Mistake on Reds/Cardinals OVER 8

The Reds and Cardinals have combined for at least 8 runs in six consecutive meetings.  This total of 8 is too short in a game involving these two suspect starting pitchers up against these two underrated lineups.

The Reds have scored at least 3 runs in eight of their last nine games overall.  They should stay hot against Dustin May, who is 5-7 with a 4.78 ERA and 1.32 WHIP in 19 starts this season while allowing 52 earned runs in 98 innings.  May has a 9.92 ERA in his last five starts while allowing 18 earned runs in 16 1/3 innings.

The Cardinals are scoring 4.5 runs per game this season.  They should feast on Rhett Lowder, who is 3-7 with a 5.75 ERA and 1.64 WHIP in 14 starts and three relief appearances this season.  Lowder has been really bad on the road, going 2-6 with a 8.27 ERA and 2.00 WHIP in nine road starts while allowing 34 earned runs and 74 base runners in 37 innings.  He is backed by a poor Cincinnati bullpen with a 4.79 ERA this season and a 5.22 ERA on the road.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* NL Friday Total DOMINATOR on Diamondbacks/Nationals OVER 9.5

The Washington Nationals are a dead nuts OVER team.  They are 57-42-4 OVER in all games this season scoring 5.5 runs per game and allowing 5.3 runs per game.  The Nationals lead the majors in runs (567), stolen bases (113), home runs (150) and slugging percentage (.443).  They have scored 7 runs or more in three consecutive games and a total of 51 runs in their last six games for an average of 8.5 runs per game.

The Diamondbacks are hot at the plate right now which is a big reason for their 9-2 run in their last 11 games overall.  They have scored 5 runs or more in eight of their last 10 games.  They just scored 10 runs on the Cardinals on Thursday after putting up 15 runs on the A's on Wednesday.  Arizona is averaging 7.3 runs per game in its last 10 games.

The Diamondbacks will stay hot against opener Carson Palmquist and bulk reliever Zach Littell.  Palmquist is 0-1 with a 8.74 ERA this season while allowing 11 earned runs in 11 1/3 innings.  Littell is 7-7 with a 5.34 ERA this season allowing 57 earned runs and 25 homers in 96 innings.  Palmquist has a 9.00 ERA in two career starts against the Diamondbacks allowing 8 earned runs in 8 innings.  Littell allowed 8 earned runs in his last game, a 15-1 loss to the A's.

Regression has hit Eduardo Rodriquez hard.  He allowed 5 earned runs in 2 2/3 innings of a 8-7 win over the Cardinals in his last start.  Rodriquez has allowed 8 earned runs and 2 homers in 11 1/3 innings in his last two starts against the Nationals.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.