Jack Jones

Jack's Free Pick Sunday: Boston Red Sox -112

The New York Yankees are 2-6 in their last eight games overall and scoring just 2.4 runs per game during this stretch.  The injuries have caught up to them offensively, and they have been held to a total of 6 hits and 2 runs in their last two games of this series against the Red Sox.

I expect Boston to pull off the 4-game sweep tonight thanks to their big advantage on the mound.  Sonny Gray is 9-1 with a 2.95 ERA in 14 starts this season, including 4-0 with a 2.61 ERA in seven home starts.  Gray has allowed 3 earned runs or fewer in 13 of his 14 starts this season.

Carlos Rodon is 4-2 with a 3.70 ERA in eight starts this season, including 3-1 with a 4.26 ERA in five road starts.  Rodon does not enjoy facing the Red Sox, going 3-3 with a 5.17 ERA in seven starts against them since 2024.  Bet the Red Sox Sunday.

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15* Interleague PLAY OF THE DAY on Rockies/Twins OVER 9

The Minnesota Twins are a dead nuts OVER team.  They have gone 53-30-1 OVER in all games this season.  That includes 21-8-1 OVER in their last 30 games overall with 9 or more combined runs in 20 of their last 27 games, and 10 or more in 19 of those.  The Rockies and their opponents have combined for 9 runs or more in 19 of their last 26 games.

After going for 17 combined runs and 25 hits in Game 1 Friday, the Rockies and Twins combined for 13 runs and 22 hits in Game 2 Saturday.  It should be more of the same in Game 3 today with this total of 9 clearly set too low.

Ryan Feltner is 0-1 with a 6.17 ERA and 1.80 WHIP in three road starts this season.  He allowed 5 earned runs and 9 base runners in 4 innings in his lone career start against Minnesota.  Feltner is backed by a terrible Colorado bullpen with a 5.02 ERA this season.

Conor Prielipp is 2-5 with a 5.17 ERA and 1.42 WHIP in 11 starts this season for the Twins while allowing 40 runs, 32 earned, in 55 2/3 innings.  He is backed by an even worse Minnesota bullpen with a 5.51 ERA on the season and a 5.64 ERA at home.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* A's/Angels AL West ANNIHILATOR on OVER 9.5

The forecast will aid us in cashing this OVER 9.5 ticket between the A's and Angels today.  Temps will be in the 70's with 10-15 MPH winds blowing out to left-center in Los Angeles this afternoon.

The A's and their opponents have gone for 9 or more combined runs in 19 of their last 28 games overall.  They are scoring 4.7 runs per game and allowing 5.3 runs per game this season.  The Angels have scored at least 5 runs in six of their last eight games overall.  Both offenses will have their way with these starting pitchers and bullpens today.

Aaron Civale is 5-4 with a 4.88 ERA and 1.58 WHIP in 13 starts this season allowing 34 earned runs and 13 homers in 62 2/3 innings.  Civale has posted a 5.01 ERA in six career starts against the Angels, allowing 18 earned runs and 8 homers in 32 1/3 innings.  He is backed by a terrible A's bullpen with a 5.00 ERA this season.

Rookie Samuel Aldegheri has struggled in his first season, going 2-3 with a 5.47 ERA and 1.50 WHIP while allowing 15 earned runs and 4 homers in 24 2/3 innings.  He is backed by a poor Angels bullpen as well with a 4.44 ERA on the season.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* MLB Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Cubs/Brewers OVER 8

Two of the best offenses in the National League square off Sunday in Game 3 of this series.  The Brewers are scoring 5.2 runs per game while the Cubs are scoring 4.9 runs per game this season.  The OVER is 2-0 in the first two games of this series with 8 and 10 combined runs, and this is the worst starting pitching matchup yet in Game 3 tonight, so this total of 8 is too short.

Ryan Rolison will be making just his 2nd start of the season as the Cubs make this a bullpen game.  Brandon Woodruff will be making just his 2nd start back from injury after having shoulder problems.  The oft-injured starter has lost his fastball and will be on a pitch count today.  Both bullpens will get a ton of work, and both offenses will have the advantage.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* AL TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Rangers/Blue Jays OVER 8.5

The OVER is 6-0 in the last six meetings between the Rangers and BlueJays with 9 or more combined runs in all six and 11 or more combined runs in five of them.  The first three games in this series all went OVER the total, and it should be more of the same in Game 4 today given the struggles of these two starting pitchers.

Shane Bieber will be making his second start of 2026 for the Toronto Blue Jays as he returns from injury.  He struggled in the minors allowing 13 earned runs, 4 homers and 32 base runners in 17 innings for a 6.88 ERA across five minor league starts.  He was blasted for 4 earned runs, 9 hits and 3 homers in 3 2/3 innings of a 9-7 loss to the Astros in his first start this season.

Kumar Rocker is 2-6 with a 4.14 ERA and 1.37 WHIP in 13 starts and two relief appearances this season.  Rocker is 1-1 with a 4.34 ERA on the road, and 0-4 with a 5.65 ERA in eight starts against American League opponents this season.  He allowed 6 earned runs and 2 homers in 3 1/3 innings in his last start against Minnesota.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* Dodgers/Padres NL West ANNIHILATOR on OVER 8

Two right-handed starters up against two stacked lefty lineups will be in trouble today with 10 MPH winds blowing out to right field in San Diego today.  After combining for 8 runs in Game 1, the Padres and Dodgers went for 18 combined runs in Game 2 yesterday.  It should be another slug fest in Game 3 today, and this total of 8 is too short as a result.

Emmet Sheehan is 3-5 with a 5.32 ERA in 14 starts for the Dodgers this season.  He is 1-3 with a 5.58 ERA in six road starts, allowing 19 earned runs and 8 homers in 30 2/3 innings.  Sheehan allowed 6 earned runs and 2 homers in 3 1/3 innings of a 12-1 home loss to the Orioles in his last start.  He allowed 4 earned runs and 2 homers in 4 innings in his lone start against the Padres this season.

Michael King has been solid at 5-6 with a 3.33 ERA in 16 starts for the Padres this season.  But he has regressed allowing 3 earned runs or more in five of his last six starts overall.  The Dodgers can get to anyone, and they are clearly coming in feeling good after scoring 15 runs on the Padres yesterday.  They are scoring 5.3 runs per game this season as one of the top offenses in baseball.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* Phillies/Mets NL East ANNIHILATOR on OVER 8

The OVER is 5-3 in the last eight meetings between the Phillies and Mets with 8 or more combined runs in seven of those eight meetings.  This total of 8 is too short tonight given the poor quality of both starting pitchers, and the resurgence of both offenses recently.  The Phillies have scored at least 4 runs in nine of their last 12 games.  The Mets have scored at least 3 runs in nine of their last 11 games.

Injuries to this Mets' rotation will force Cionel Perez to make his first start of the season in what will clearly be a bullpen game for them.  Perez has a 4.99 ERA and 1.37 WHIP this season, including a 5.29 ERA and 1.47 WHIP at home.  He has a 9.35 ERA in eight career appearances against the Phillies out of the bullpen.

Jesus Luzardo is 6-4 with a 4.48 ERA and 1.31 WHIP in 16 starts for the Phillies this season.  He has allowed 8 earned runs in 12 innings for a 6.00 ERA in his last two starts against the Mets.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* MLB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE MONTH on Pittsburgh Pirates -130

The Pittsburgh Pirates will be highly motivated for a victory Sunday to avoid the sweep after dropping the first two games of this series to the Cincinnati Reds.  I like their chances of getting the job done today thanks to their massive advantage on the mound.

Brady Singer is 0-4 with a 6.32 ERA and 1.73 WHIP in eight road starts this season allowing 26 earned runs and 8 homers in 37 innings.  Singer is 2-5 with a 6.82 ERA and 1.79 WHIP in seven career starts against the Pirates.  He is 0-4 with a 7.41 ERA and 2.24 WHIP in four career road starts in Pittsburgh, allowing 14 earned runs and 38 base runners in 17 innings.

Mitch Keller is 1-1 with a 1.40 ERA and 0.94 WHIP in his last four home starts against the Reds.  He has allowed just 4 earned runs without a homer in 25 2/3 innings in those four home starts.  Keller has held the Reds to 4 earned runs in 18 2/3 innings in his last three starts against them since last season.  Bet the Pirates Sunday.