Jack Jones

15* NBA Sunday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Detroit Pistons -7

The spot really favors the Detroit Pistons today.  They have had the last three days off and will be rested and ready to go tonight.  They will also be looking to bounce back from a rare loss to the 76ers.  They have opened 6-2 SU & 6-2 ATS this season.

The Lakers are in a clear letdown spot after Luka Doncic scored 50 points in a 124-118 win over the Blazers in the NBA Cup on Friday.  They are a tired team playing their 8th game in 13 days.  That's why they have decided to rest Doncic for this game.  He is worth as much to the point spread as any player in the NBA.  Bet the Pistons Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Dallas Mavericks -7.5

The Dallas Mavericks have gone 4-2 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall with impressive wins over the Heat on the road, plus the Thunder and Rockets at home.  They also had a 1-point loss to the Spurs on the road, and a 12-point home win over the Jazz last time out.  They have taken on some of the best teams in the NBA and proven they can compete to this point.

The Mavericks have shown they are a potent offensive team when both Flagg and Kyrie are on the court at the same time, and that will be the case tonight.  And while Dusty May is known for offense, he has gotten the most out of Dallas defensively as well.  They rank 10th in scoring defense holding opponents to 110.9 points per game.

While the Mavs had yesterday off, the Nets will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a tough 124-121 road loss to the Atlanta Hawks on Sunday.  They blew a golden opportunity by getting outscored by 10 points in the 4th quarter against a tired Hawks team playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after beating the Wizards in the NBA Cup the night prior.

Four starters played at least 31 minutes for the Nets yesterday.  Mikel Brown Jr. will now sit out this game and Egor Demin will be out too.  That's two of their best guards.  This is one of the worst rosters in the NBA as evidenced by their 2-7 record to this point.  I don't expect them to hang with the Mavs, either.  Bet the Mavericks Sunday.

Jack's Free Pick Sunday: Arizona Cardinals +9

This adjustment from Seattle as high as -12.5 down to -9 isn't just for the Sam Darnold injury.  If it was, that would be too big of an adjustment down to Drew Lock, who isn't much of a downgrade from Darnold at all.  It's the cluster injuries for the Seahawks that makes this adjustment warranted, and it's still not enough in my opinion.

The Seahawks will be without QB Darnold, WR Shaheed, OT Cross and G Nelson on offense alone.  They lack weapons outside JSN, and Lock will be under duress behind this suspect offensive line without their two best linemen.

The injuries are nearly as concerning on defense for the Seahawks, too.  They will be without DT Leonard Williams, LB Uchenna Nwoso and DT Brandon Pili.  LB O'Toole is questionable.  This is the worst shape the Seahawks have been in the injury department all season, and they are also on a short week after losing 34-17 at home to the Bears on Monday Night Football.

The Cardinals are coming off a 33-30 (OT) comeback win at Dallas.  Gardner Minshew replaced Jacoby Brissett and the offense went off for four consecutive TD drives in the 2H to force OT.  It was impressive to see the Cardinals finish the deal after missing an XP that would have won it in regulation.

Minshew remains one of the best backup QB's in the NFL.  He has ample weapons in Wilson and McBride who combined for 15 receptions for 183 yards and 2 TD's in that win over the Cowboys.  And the Cardinals look about as healthy as they have been all season as a whole.  They get RG Isaiah Adams back this week and the offensive line is solid now for Minshew.

While Minshew and the offense grabbed the headlines last week, it was this Arizona defense that gave them a chance by shutting down the high-powered Dallas offense.  The Cardinals actually held the Cowboys to just 261 yards and 3.8 yards per play for the game.  They outgained the Cowboys by 206 yards for the game as the offense amassed 467 yards.  This Arizona defense is as healthy as it has been all season right now and it's starting to show.

I always like backing the underdog in these division games who lost the first meeting both SU and ATS.  It's the one spot where the revenge factor comes into play.  Arizona is 13-5 ATS in its last 18 games as a road underdog, including 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS this season under Mike LaFleur.  Underdogs of 7 or more points are 20-6-3 ATS in all NFL games this season.  Teams with the rest advantage are 27-10-1 ATS this season.  Bet the Cardinals Sunday.

No. 2 Ranked Overall Capper All-Time! Jack Jones has absolutely CRUSHED the books over the past 8-plus years! He is riding a 7303-6371 Run L3345 Days on all premium plays that has seen his $1,000/game players cash in $329,730! He was the No. 6 Ranked Overall Capper in 2022 as well as the No. 8 Ranked Overall Capper in 2023! He finished as the No. 2 Ranked Overall Capper in 2024 with his $1,000/game players up $192,740 since January 1st, 2022!

No. 2 Ranked NFL Capper All-Time! Jack has SIX Top-10 NFL Finishes (#3 2009, #4 2023, #4 2017, #5 2024, #8 2019, #10 2008) to his credit! He is riding a 686-553 NFL Run that has his $1,000/game players winning $72,170! That includes a 413-323 NFL Run since November of 2021! He delivered an 81-56 NFL Record three seasons ago and finished as the No. 4 Ranked NFL Capper in 2023-24 as a result! He followed it up with an 87-66 NFL Record two seasons ago to finish as the No. 5 Ranked NFL Capper in 2024-25 as well!

Jack has delivered a 726-603 Run on all premium plays since February 11th! That includes a 104-56 Run on all top plays rated 20* or higher! He went 2-1 Thursday, 6-2 Friday & 11-6 Saturday for a HOT 19-9 Run L3 Days on all premium plays! This pro football money train stays right on track with Jack's Sunday NFL 7-Play Power Pack for $69.95! Leading the charge are a pair of top play winners in his 20* NFL Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK along with his 20* Raiders/49ers Non-Conference KNOCKOUT! You'll receive 4 totals in all as he adds to his 456-343 Run on Football Totals!

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15* NFL Sunday Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Houston Texans -5

I love the spot for the Houston Texans this week.  They are coming off a bye and off a bad loss to the Giants going into the bye.  I expect them to put their best foot forward this week, especially since they come out of the bye as healthy as they have been all season.

A big reason for Houston's struggles to start the season has been health on both offense and defense.  Nico Collins and Tank Dell have both missed time, but both are full gos and CJ Stroud has been great when he has had Collins on the field.  Marvin Harrison Jr. should be comfortable in the offense now coming off the bye.  This Houston offense should be one of the best in the NFL if they remain this healthy.

The Texans have been dealing with injuries at LB and in the secondary.  But LB's Al-Shaair and To'oTo'o are back healthy now, and the key is getting back NB Jalen Pitre this week after he missed the past two games against the Jaguars and Giants, which were their two worst defensive performances of the season.  The Texans will have one of the league's top defenses the rest of the way if they stay as healthy as they are now.

The books just can't adjust enough for how poor the Chargers are.  If they were going to show something, it would have been last week out of their bye.  Instead, they lost 24-9 to the Rams at home, a Rams team that was dealing with a ton of injuries going into that game, while the Chargers had gotten healthier coming out of their bye.

The Chargers are 0-7 SU & 0-6-1 ATS this season.  They are 0-9-1 ATS in their last 10 games dating back to last season.  All seven of their losses this season have come by 7 points or more.  Justin Herbert is broken behind a suspect offensive line and suspect weapons.  He looks totally checked out.  The Chargers have been decent defensively, but they are without their most important defender in Derwin James.  They are also without CB Deane Leonard and LB Denzel Perryman.

Justin Herbert is 0-4 ATS against the AFC South the last two seasons failing to cover by 14.2 points per game.  That includes 0-2 SU & 0-2 ATS against Houston while the Chargers were held to a total of 28 points in both losses.  Teams like the Texans with the rest advantage have gone 27-10-1 ATS this season.  When those teams with the rest advantage are favored like Houston is, they are 22-1 SU & 18-4-1 ATS.  Bet the Texans Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Miami Dolphins +7

The Miami Dolphins have been feisty this season and play as hard as anyone in the NFL for Jeff Hafley.  He is getting the most out of his talent.  In their last four games the Dolphins lost by 5 at Minnesota, by 7 at home to Cincinnati, upset the Jets by 3 on the road and lost by just 5 at home to the Patriots.  That's three great teams they played down to the wire while also upsetting the Jets.

But this is more of a fade of the Lions, who are in the ultimate letdown spot today.  The Lions are coming off consecutive huge division wins over the Packers by 3 and the Vikings by 4 at home.  They have another huge game on deck against the Patriots overseas next week.  So this is a the sandwich spot, and they are ripe for the upset here.

Last week's win over the Vikings also cost them a ton of injuries.  They will be without C Mays on offense, but the defensive injuries really stand out.  The Lions will be without LB Campbell, CB Reed, S Joseph, LB Wonnum, SS Harper and FS Maddox.  They are extremely short-handed in the secondary, and this Miami offense will have its way.  

The Dolphins look vastly improved the last few weeks on offense including scoring 28 points against the Jets and 24 points against the Bengals in two of their last three games.  They had 19 points against a very good New England defense in poor weather last week.  Malik Willis is mobile which is key against this Detroit defense, whose strength is along the D-Line and they are weak everywhere else.  And this Miami defense has been respectable holding opponents to 334 yards per game this season.  Bet the Dolphins Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on New York Giants -3

Most keep saying that the Giants being 4-2-1 this season is a fluke.  But when you look at what they've done the last three weeks numbers-wise, there has been nothing fluky about it.  They put up 408 yards on the Commanders in their 27-27 tie and outgained them by 36 yards.  They put up 461 yards on the Saints in their 34-27 loss and outgained them by 142 yards.

But most impressive was their 27-21 (OT) win at Houston last time out.  They put up 420 yards and 6.8 yards per play on that vaunted Houston defense.  They held the Texans to 237 yards and 4.5 yards per play.  They outgained them by 183 yards and 2.3 yards per play.  And that's a Houston team that is one of the best in the NFL and much better than their record would indicate.

JJ McCarthy is balling out and should continue to have success against this overrated Philadelphia defense.  The Eagles have allowed at least 24 points in five of their last six games overall.  And we know how broken this Philadelphia offense is, currently down to 3rd-string QB Joe Milton.  They have scored just 17.1 points per game, averaged 265.3 yards per game and 4.6 yards per play this season.

It looked to me like the Eagles quit late in the game the last couple weeks.  They lost by 17 at home to the Cowboys, by 11 at home to the Panthers and by 17 at the Commanders the last three games.  Oddsmakers just can't adjust this team down enough, and it has been free money fading them.  They remain without their two best WR's in Smith and Wicks, and Barkley is a shell of his former self.  They traded away or lost their best offensive linemen and are debating trading more.

The spot really favors the Giants.  They are coming off their bye week and will be the fresher, healthier team in this one.  The Eagles are a tired, banged up team and just cannot wait to get to their bye week next week.  I think they are making plans for cancun a week early.  Bet the Giants Sunday.

15* Bucs/Bears NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on OVER 46.5

The Bears have been a dead nuts OVER team with Caleb Williams at QB.  The Bears are 4-1 OVER in their five games with Williams at QB with the lone exception being when they played the Vikings in the slop at home in the game Williams got hurt.

The other three games sailed OVER the total.  They beat the Panthers 59-37 for 96 combined points.  They beat the Falcons 31-23 for 54 combined points.  They beat the Patriots 30-24 for 54 combined points.  And they beat the Seahawks 34-17 for 51 combined points.  The whole playbook is open for Ben Johnson to work his magic offensively with Williams at QB.  This total of 46.5 is too short for game involving the Bears.

Chicago has averaged 38.5 points per game and 422.3 yards per game in the three games in which Williams has started and finished.  But this is a bad Chicago defense.  The Bears actually rank dead last (32nd) allowing 6.4 yards per play on defense this season.  They have some key injuries in the secondary and along the defensive line, too.

It's a good time to 'buy low' on a Tampa Bay OVER.  The Bucs are coming off a 16-0 home win over the Atlanta Falcons in which they didn't complete a single pass.  It was the worst weather conditions for any NFL game this season in the rainy slop and wind.  Their solid offensive line flexed their muscle rushing for 324 yards on the Falcons.  This came after rushing for 258 yards in a 43-13 win over the Panthers the previous week.

Baker Mayfield returned from his thumb injury against the Panthers two games ago.  He should be fully healthy now three weeks later.  The glove on his throwing hand has come off, and he is going to need to throw the ball a lot to keep up with the Bears.  I also like the fact that he gets back his best receiver in Emeka Egbuka this week after he missed the last two games.  Mayfield has his full compliment of weapons and an elite offensive line at his disposal.

No question this Tampa Bay defense has put up solid numbers this season.  But they've also benefited from some weather and getting to face some poor offenses.  Against the best offense they faced in the Bengals, they allowed 33 points.  And this Chicago offense is on par with that Cincinnati offense.  The Bears will do the heavy lifting getting 27-plus while the Bucs will get into the 20's in this game to sail OVER this 46.5-point total.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Jets/Chiefs OVER 46

The Jets have quietly been a dead nuts OVER team in recent weeks with a very healthy offense and a very beat up defense.  They have gone 3-0 OVER in their last three games overall combining for 45 points with the Patriots, 53 with the Dolphins and 71 with the Raiders.  Most concerning is their defense, which allowed 26 to the Pats, 28 to the Dolphins and 38 to the Raiders.  They are without DT Sweat, LB Wallace, DE Ossai and DE Bailey will be playing through injury.  They have 11 defenders in all either out or on IR.

But the Jets went for 33 points and 439 yards on the Raiders last week.  They went for 25 points and 377 yards on the Dolphins the week prior.  They averaged 7.4 yards per play in both of those games.  Geno Smith has a solid offensive line and ample weapons to be successful.  RB Breece Hall returns this week to pair with Allen.  Cooper Jr., Mitchell, Taylor and Sadiq are solid weapons for him.  Tough break with Garrett Wilson out with a concussion after I released this play or I'd like it even more.

The Chiefs just put up 24 points, 399 yards and 6.1 yards per play on the Broncos on the road last week against one of the best defenses in the NFL.  You can imagine what they are going to do to this banged up New York defense.  RB Kenneth Walker has been a game changer for them, as has getting Rashee Rice back from injury and getting much healthier on the O-Line.  This is as healthy as the Chiefs have been all season offensively.

But the Chiefs lack a pass rush, and that's amplified by the fact that they will be without their two best CB's in Mansoor Delane and L'Jarius Sneed this week.  They are also without DT Woods, DT Nornam-Lott and DE Pyburn.  They just allowed 28 points to Denver's broken offense last week.  And I fully expect Geno Smith and company to have a ton of success through the air against this secondary.  They will be able to keep coming and try and keep up with the Chiefs in a shootout.

The forecast looks great for said shootout with temps in the 60's, 6 MPH winds and no precipitation at Arrowhead Stadium this afternoon.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* Raiders/49ers Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on OVER 51

Klink Kubiak was in charge of the Super Bowl-winning Seattle offense last year and the improvement of Sam Darnold.  The Seahawks have no running game this season, and Darnold has looked awful.  A large part of that is losing Kubiak.  He is turning Kirk Cousins and this Las Vegas offense into one of the better units in the league, which is no small feat.  The Raiders are averaging 27.6 points per game this season.

But this is a bad, bad Las Vegas defense.  They are allowing 28.8 points per game, 382.3 yards per game and 6.3 yards per play this season.  They rank 31st in scoring defense, 30th in total defense and 31st in yards per play allowed.

The last five games were very concerning as they allowed 27 points and 381 yards to the Saints, 30 points and 399 yards to the Chiefs, 45 points and 539 yards to the Patriots who were down three of their top four receivers, 33 points to the Bills, 35 points to the Rams without Adams and 33 points and 439 yards to the Jets.

The Raiders have gone 6-0 OVER in their last six games with 62 combined points with the Saints, 57 with the Chiefs, 62 with the Patriots, 63 with the Bills, 56 with the Rams and 71 with the Jets.  This total of 51 is short for a game involving the Raiders right now, especially when you consider they rank 5th in tempo snapping the ball every 27.7 seconds.

The Raiders have no chance at slowing down the 49ers even with their injuries at receiver.  The 49ers can just run on them if they want to as the Raiders have allowed 165 or more rushing yards in four of their last five games.  And this San Francisco offense is one of the best in the NFL even playing through some of these injuries.  They score 28.1 points per game, averaging 373 yards per game and 6.5 yards per play.  They rank 5th in scoring offense and 2nd in yards per play offense.  They will have some new wrinkles for the Raiders coming out of their bye week.

I do like this San Francisco defense, but I think the Raiders can do enough against them to contribute to this total.  Their weakness is against the pass as they rank 30th allowing 66.9% completions to opposing QB's.  And the Raiders haven't been that effective running the ball.  I expect Kirk Cousins to be throwing it 40-plus times in this game to try and keep up in a shootout like he has all season.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* NFL Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Lions/Dolphins OVER 49.5

The Lions are a dead nuts OVER team this week with a very healthy offense and a very banged up defense.  They just played two straight unders against two division opponents in the Vikings and Packers that are keeping this total lower than it should be.  But they came away from that Vikings game with a ton of injuries on defense.

The Lions will be without LB Campbell, CB Reed, S Joseph and LB Wonnum.  They are extremely short-handed in the secondary, and this Miami offense will have its way.  The Dolphins look vastly improved the last few weeks on offense including scoring 28 points against the Jets and 24 points against the Bengals in two of their last three games.  They had 19 points against a very good New England defense in poor weather last week.  Malik Willis is mobile which is key against this Detroit defense, whose strength is along the D-Line and they are weak everywhere else.

The Lions will do the heavy lifting and get their points this week.  They are scoring 29.0 points per game while averaging 395.4 yards per game and 6.2 yards per play.  They face a Miami defense that is allowing 25.9 points per game and 5.8 yards per play.  The Lions are fully healthy on offense outside C Cade Mays, who they have played without and been fine this season.

The forecast looks great for a shootout in Miami this afternoon with temps in the 80's, 5 MPH winds and no precipitation.  This total should be in the 50's.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.