Jack Jones

Jack's Free Pick Tuesday: Orioles/Mariners OVER 7.5

The Baltimore Orioles are 11-4-1 OVER in their last 16 games overall while going for 9 or more combined runs in 14 of those 16 games.  They are really coming to life at the plate and living up to their potential by scoring 4 runs or more in 15 of their last 20 games overall.

The Seattle Mariners are 9-2-1 OVER in their last 12 games overall while going for 8 or more combined runs in 11 of those 12 games, and 9 or more in 10 of them.  They have scored at least 3 runs in 17 of their last 20 games overall.  They have reinforcements on the way with Cal Raleigh and JP Crawford returning tonight, plus possibly getting back Arozarena and Naylor as well.

Brandon Young is 6-8 with a 4.66 ERA and 1.40 WHIP in 22 career starts in the big leagues.  Logan Gilbert is 3-3 with a 5.60 ERA in eight home starts this season, allowing 28 earned runs and a whopping 12 homers in 45 innings.  These starters just faced these lineups last week in a series in Baltimore, so that will give the hitters the advantage getting to see them for the 2nd time in a week.

The Mariners and Orioles combined for at least 9 runs in all four meetings in Baltimore last week.  They have now combined for at least 8 runs in five consecutive meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

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15* MLB Tuesday Night BLOWOUT on Washington Nationals -125

The Washington Nationals are one of the most improved teams in baseball with a 38-35 record this season.  They are scoring 5.5 runs per game with one of the best offenses in baseball.  They take on the Royals, who are 29-44 this season with one of the worst offenses in baseball.  They are scoring just 4.0 runs per game and are the worst hitting team in the majors on the road.

Michael Wacha comes in struggling allowing 14 earned runs in 17 2/3 innings in his last three starts.  Wacha has allowed 7 earned runs in 15 2/3 innings in his last three starts against Washington.  He is backed by a poor Kansas City bullpen with a 4.80 ERA and 1.51 WHIP this season.

Foster Griffin has been the best starter for the Nationals this season.  He is 7-2 with a 3.46 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in 14 starts this season with 74 K's in 78 innings.  So the Nationals have big advantages on the mound and at the plate tonight and should be bigger favorites as a result.  Bet the Nationals Tuesday.

20* MLB Tuesday Late-Night BAILOUT on Rays/Dodgers OVER 8

The Dodgers are scoring 5.3 runs per game with one of the best offenses in baseball.  The Rays are scoring 4.5 runs per game with an improved offense this season.  The Rays are hitting .284 in their 21 games against left-handed starters this season to really crush southpaws.

Lefty Justin Wrobleski is one of the biggest regression candidates in baseball with just how much he pitches to contact.  Wrobleski has just 45 K's in 73 1/3 innings.  Regression hit him hard in his last start allowing 4 earned runs and 2 homers in 4 2/3 innings of a 8-6 win over the Pirates.

Drew Rasmussen is also a regression candidate for the Rays.  His unsustainable numbers are a big reason this total has been set as low as it is at 8 runs.  He is backed by a poor Tampa Bay bullpen with a 4.64 ERA on the season and a 4.84 ERA on the road.

The Dodgers are 7-2 OVER in their last nine games overall going for 10 or more combined runs in seven of those nine games.  These teams had 6 combined runs in the first 2 innings last night and finished with 7 for one of the worst beats for over backers all year.  We get some revenge tonight with this total set even lower from 9.5 in Game 1 down to 8 in Game 2 now.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* MLB Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Rockies/Cubs OVER 9

The forecast will aid us in cashing this OVER 9 ticket between the Cubs and Rockies at hitter-friendly Wrigley Field tonight.  There will be 15-20 MPH winds blowing out to right field to aid homers in that direction.  That's bad news for two struggling right-handed starting pitchers who will face lefty-heavy lineups in this one.

Ryan Feltner is 2-2 with a 5.20 ERA in eight starts this season, including 0-1 with a 7.71 ERA in two road starts.  Feltner just faced the Cubs on June 11th in his last start allowing 6 earned runs in 4 1/3 innings of a 9-3 loss.  The Cubs have the advantage getting to see him for the 2nd time in a week.

Edward Cabrera is 4-3 with a 4.86 ERA and 1.41 WHIP in 12 starts this season allowing 34 earned runs and 13 homers in 63 innings.  Cabrera is 2-2 with a 5.15 ERA and 1.50 WHIP in seven home starts.  He allowed 2 homers in 5 1/3 innings opposite Feltner on June 11th, so getting to see him for the 2nd time in a week will also be an advantage for Colorado hitters.

The Rockies and their opponents have combined for at least 10 runs in 13 of their last 16 games overall.  Feltner is 1-1 with a 8.39 ERA in two career starts against Chicago.  Cabrera is 1-1 with a 5.53 ERA in his last three starts against Colorado.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* MLB Tuesday Night Line Mistake on Pirates/A's OVER 10.5

The forecast will aid us in cashing this OVER 10.5 ticket between the Pirates and A's tonight.  Temps will be in the 90's at game time with 10 MPH winds blowing out to center at hitter-friendly Sutter Health Park tonight.  The ball should be flying out again for an A's home game.

The Pirates have one of the most improved offenses in baseball scoring 5.0 runs per game.  The Pirates are 15-4 OVER in their last 19 games overall going for 11 or more combined runs in 12 of those 19 games.  The A's and their opponents have combined for at least 10 runs in 12 of their last 17 games overall.  The A's have scored at least 4 runs in eight consecutive games averaging 7.9 runs per game during this stretch.

The A's have a very tired bullpen after playing six straight games in Las Vegas at another hitter-friendly park.  The Pirates have a 4.50 ERA as a bullpen this season.  The A's have a 4.78 ERA as a bullpen including a 6.39 ERA at home.

Mitch Keller is 5-4 with a 5.14 ERA in 14 starts for the Pirates this season.  Keller is 0-3 with a 7.05 ERA in three career starts against the A's, allowing 12 earned runs and 4 homers in 15 1/3 innings.  Jack Perkins is 2-3 with a 6.25 ERA this season for the A's allowing 25 earned runs in 36 innings.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* Interleague TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Royals/Nationals OVER 8.5

The Washington Nationals are a dead nuts OVER team.  They are 45-25-3 OVER in all games this season scoring 5.5 runs per game and allowing 5.2 runs per game.  The Royals are starting to rake scoring at least 4 runs in six of their last eight games overall, and 3 runs or more in 15 of their last 16 games overall.

Michael Wacha comes in struggling allowing 14 earned runs in 17 2/3 innings in his last three starts.  Wacha has allowed 7 earned runs in 15 2/3 innings in his last three starts against Washington.  He is backed by a poor Kansas City bullpen with a 4.80 ERA and 1.51 WHIP this season.

Foster Griffin is 2-1 with a 4.00 ERA and 1.33 WHIP in five home starts this season allowing a whopping 8 homers in 27 innings.  He is also backed by a bad Washington bullpen with a 4.65 ERA on the season and a 4.96 ERA at home.

The OVER is 5-0 in the last five meetings between the Royals and Nationals with 10 or more combined runs in all five.  Temps will be in the 70's with light winds blowing out to center in Washington tonight to aid us in cashing this OVER 8.5 ticket.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.