Jack Jones

Jack's Free Pick Monday: Rockies/Dodgers OVER 9.5

The Dodgers have one of the best offenses in baseball scoring 5.3 runs per game.  The Colorado Rockies are hot at the plate scoring 6 runs or more in eight of their last 11 games overall.  Both offenses should stay hot tonight against these two suspect starting pitchers.

Kyle Freeland is 2-7 with a 7.25 ERA and 1.60 WHIP in 16 games this season.  He has been even worse away from Coors Field at 0-5 with a 8.31 ERA and 1.62 WHIP in eight games, allowing 32 earned runs and 9 homers in 34 2/3 innings.  Freeland allowed 8 earned runs and 3 homers in 4 innings of a 15-6 loss to the Dodgers in his lone start against them this season.

Eric Lauer is one of the weakest links in this Los Angeles rotation.  He is 4-5 with a 4.84 ERA in 14 games this season, allowing 38 earned runs and 17 homers in 70 2/3 innings.  Lauer is 2-2 with a 5.63 ERA in six home games, allowing 20 earned runs and 9 homers in 32 innings.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

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20* Interleague TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Astros/Nationals OVER 9.5

The Washington Nationals are a dead nuts OVER team going 53-35-3 OVER in all games this season.  They are scoring 5.3 runs per game and allowing 5.2 runs per game.  The Astros are 48-41-3 OVER in all games this season scoring 4.5 runs per game and allowing 5.0 runs per game.  Both offenses will have their way with two of the worst starters in baseball tonight.

Mike Burrows is 4-8 with a 5.58 ERA and 1.51 WHIP in 17 starts this season for the Astros.  He has allowed 56 earned runs and 19 homers in 90 1/3 innings with just 72 K's.  Burrows has allowed 4 earned runs or more in six of his last nine starts.

Miles Mikolas is 2-7 with a 5.23 ERA in 18 games this season allowing 49 earned runs and 18 homers in 84 1/3 innings with just 47 K's.  He is 2-3 with a 5.82 ERA on the road this season.  He allowed 6 earned runs and 2 homers in his last start against Boston.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* MLB Monday Total DOMINATOR on Brewers/Cardinals OVER 8

The Milwaukee Brewers are scoring 5.1 runs per game this season with one of the best offenses in baseball.  The St. Louis Cardinals are scoring 4.6 runs per game with an underrated offenses as well.  Both offenses should flourish tonight with temps in the 80's in St. Louis.

The Brewers are capable of covering this total on their own against Dustin May, who has allowed a whopping 11 earned runs in 2 2/3 innings in his last two starts.  He has fallen to 5-6 with a 4.80 ERA in 16 starts this season.

Shane Drohan is more of an innings eater for the Brewers than a starter making seven starts and 10 relief appearances.  He has allowed 2 earned runs or more in four of his last six starts despite rarely making it past the 5th inning.  This total of 8 is too short tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* MLB Monday Night BLOWOUT on Atlanta Braves -125

The Atlanta Braves are 52-36 this season and trying to win the NL East.  The New York Mets are 37-53 this season with pretty much nothing to play for the rest of the way.  And they have been playing like it going 3-12 in their last 15 games overall.  The All-Star Break can't get here soon enough for them.

The Braves need to be bigger favorites today given their advantage on the mound and at the plate.  They are scoring 4.9 runs per game this season compared to 4.0 runs per game for the Mets, who have been even worse on the road at 3.7 runs per game which is the worst mark in the National League.

Reynaldo Lopez is 4-1 with a 3.31 ERA this season.  He is 3-0 with a 3.19 ERA and 1.10 WHIP at home allowing just 11 earned runs and 2 homers in 31 innings.  Lopez is 1-1 with a 2.45 ERA in four career starts against the Mets.  He has fired 9 shutout innings in his last two starts against them.

Freddy Peralta has really struggled of late with a 8.49 ERA in his last five starts while allowing 22 earned runs in 23 1/3 innings.  Peralta is 2-4 with a 6.06 ERA and 1.54 WHIP in seven road starts this season.  He is 2-1 with a 6.35 ERA and 1.94 WHIP in four career road starts at Atlanta, allowing 12 earned runs and 33 base runners in 17 innings.  Bet the Braves Monday.