Jack Jones

15* MLB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Marlins/Padres OVER 7.5

The San Diego Padres have quietly been a dead nuts OVER team here down the stretch.  They have gone 9-0-1 OVER in their last 10 games overall finishing with 9 or more combined runs in all 10 games, and 10 or more in nine of them.  They are going through their best offensive stretch of the season scoring 5 runs or more nine of those 10 games, 6 or more in eight, and 7 or more  seven times.

The Marlins have gone 14-6 OVER in their last 20 games overall finishing with 8 or more combined runs in 16 of those 20 games.  They have scored at least 4 runs in 10 of their last 12 games overall while also going through their best offensive stretch of the season.  This total of 7.5 is too short for these two hot offenses up against these two starting pitchers tonight.

Eury Perez is 2-6 with a 4.54 ERA in 14 road starts this season.  Perez has really struggled of late, allowing 19 earned runs in 16 2/3 innings in his last four starts for a 10.26 ERA during this stretch.  Perez has allowed 5 earned runs in 12 innings in two career starts against San Diego.

Casey Mize is 6-9 with a 3.69 ERA in 24 starts this season.  But Mize has really struggled of late, going 2-3 with a 5.97 ERA in his last eight starts while allowing 25 earned runs and 9 homers in 37 2/3 innings.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* NL PLAY OF THE DAY on Cubs/Reds OVER 9

The Chicago Cubs are a dead nuts OVER team.  They have gone 86-66-2 OVER in all games this season while scoring 5.3 runs per game.  The Cubs are 14-4-2 OVER in their last 20 games overall finishing with 9 or more combined runs in 15 of those 20 games, and 10 or more in 14 of them.  The Reds have gone 81-69-4 OVER in all games this season while allowing 5.1 runs per game.  Both offenses should have their way with these starting pitchers and bullpens tonight.

Matt Boyd has really struggled of late.  He has allowed 3 earned runs or more in five of his last six starts, going 0-4 with a 5.66 ERA while allowing 22 earned runs in 35 innings.  Boyd does not enjoy facing the Reds, going 2-3 with a 6.32 ERA and 1.53 WHIP in six career starts against them.  He is 1-3 with an 8.49 ERA and 1.84 WHIP in five career starts in Cincinnati, allowing 22 earned runs in 23 1/3 innings.

Nick Lodolo is 3-5 with a 5.12 ERA and 1.48 WHIP in 19 starts for the Reds this season.  He has allowed at least 3 earned runs in four of his last five starts with a 6.84 ERA while allowing 19 earned runs and 7 homers in 25 innings.  He also does not enjoy facing the Cubs, going 1-2 with a 6.39 ERA and 1.77 WHIP in six career home starts against them.  He has allowed 22 earned runs, 6 homers and 55 base runners in 31 innings in those six starts at hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park.

The OVER is 5-0 in the last five meetings with 10 or more combined runs in all five.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

Jack's Free Pick Saturday: Louisville ML -115

The Louisville Cardinals will be playing with double revenge here.  Jeff Brohm is 29-13 at Louisville, but two of those losses came to the SMU Mustangs over the last two seasons.  After falling 34-27 at home to SMU in 2024, the Cardinals were blown out 38-6 at SMU last year.  It's safe to say they have had this game circled all offseason.

Louisville's only loss by more than 7 points over the last two seasons came 38-6 to SMU last year.  But that loss comes with a big asterisk.  The Cardinals were coming off two losses to Cal and Clemson by a combined 4 points that eliminated them from ACC title contention.  They were flat as a pancake against SMU with nothing to play for.  QB Miller Moss and both stud RB's were out for that game for Louisville, too.

Now the Cardinals are loaded in 2026 and a legit ACC title contender.  Brohm crushed the transfer portal in the offseason bringing in eight transfers who were starters at other programs, giving the Cardinals 14 returning starters overall.  They have arguably the best 1-2 punch at RB in the country in Isaac Brown (884 yards, 7 TD, 8.8 YPC last year) and Keyjuan Brown (704 yards, 6 TD, 7.3 YPC).  They added QB Lincoln Kienholz who was in a battle with Julian Sayin last season for the starting QB job at Ohio State.  They also added Vandy WR transfer Tre Richardson and FSU WR transfer Lewayne McCoy to give Kienholz the weapons he needs to succeed.

Four starters and four of the top nine tacklers are back from a defense that allowed just 21.2 points per game last season.  And defense is where Brohm gets overlooked because he's an offensive guy, but he notoriously has great defenses as his teams have allowed 21.3 points per game or fewer in three of the last four seasons, and the 24.1 points per game in 2024 was the lone exception.  The Cardinals are loaded at LB this season and bring back their best defensive lineman in DE Cleve Lubin (61 tackles, 8.5 sacks last year).

Louisville opened with an impressive 41-38 loss at the buzzer to Ole Miss, which made the college football playoff semifinals last year and brought back a ton of talent from that team.  Keinholz was shaky in the first half of his first start which was understandable.  But he settled in and shined in the 2H, finishing with 307 passing yards and 2 TD along with 69 rushing yards and a score.  His dual-threat ability will give Brohm a ton of versatility with his offense moving forward.  The Cardinals had to play five days later and blasted Villanova 59-13 on September 11th.  They get an extra day to prepare for SMU now and it is a hidden advantage heading into this game.

No question Rhett Lashlee is one of the better coaches in the country with what he has been able to do at SMU.  But he has also benefited from a pretty soft schedule the last two seasons.  I like this SMU offense led by QB Kevin Jennings, but the defense leaves a lot to be desired.  The Mustangs only returned three starters on defense this season and I think will take a step back on that side of the ball.

SMU's 27-24 win at Florida State in the opener isn't that impressive.  FSU is one of the most overrated teams in the country again this season, struggling with New Mexico State at home in the opener.  I fully expect the Seminoles to get blasted by Alabama this week.  SMU came back with a 56-10 win over UC Davis and wasn't tested there either.  

The fact that Louisville has been tested against a team of Ole Miss' caliber will pay dividends late in this game.  I believe the Cardinals are the better team this season, and with home-field advantage this game shouldn't be lined below -3.  Bet Louisville on the money line Saturday.

No. 2 Ranked Overall Capper All-Time! Jack Jones has absolutely CRUSHED the books over the past 8-plus years! He is riding a 7163-6251 Run L3295 Days on all premium plays that has seen his $1,000/game players cash in $319,190! He was the No. 6 Ranked Overall Capper in 2022 as well as the No. 8 Ranked Overall Capper in 2023! He finished as the No. 2 Ranked Overall Capper in 2024 with his $1,000/game players up $182,200 since January 1st, 2022!

No. 2 Ranked College Football Capper All-Time! Jack has delivered SEVEN Top-7 CFB Finishes L14 Years (#1 2024, #2 2012, #3 2018, #3 2014, #5 2016, #6 2020, #7 2017) to really put a beating on the books on the NCAA gridiron! He is riding a 1229-1026 CFB Run long-term that has seen his $1,000/game players cash in $105,420! He finished as the No. 1 Ranked CFB Capper in 2024-25!

Jack is off to a 18-10 CFB Start this season to add to his 50-28 CFB Run since last season on the NCAA gridiron! He is also riding a HOT 31-14 Run L9 Days on all premium plays! This money train stays right on track with Jack's Saturday College Football 11-Pack for $59.95! Leading the charge are FIVE 20* Top Plays as he adds to his 673-516 Run on college football top plays rated 20* or higher!

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15* CFB Saturday Night Line Mistake on BYU/Colorado State UNDER 52.5

The forecast will aid us in cashing this UNDER 52.5 ticket between BYU and Colorado State tonight.  There is a 60% chance of rain at the start of the game which will make the field sloppy.  It will be tough sledding for both offenses, and this total of 52.5 is too high tonight as a result.

BYU is a dead nuts UNDER team with a heavy dose of rushing and an elite defense.  The Cougars went 12-2 last season led by a defense that allowed just 19.1 points per game, and a rushing attack that produced 178 rushing yards per game.  Seven starters are back on defense as this is one of the best defenses in the country.  Dual-threat QB Bear Bachmeir is back as well after rushing for 527 yards last season.

BYU ranked 123rd out of 136 teams in tempo last season snapping the ball every 28.8 seconds.  They haven't been much faster this season, snapping the ball every 27.7 seconds.  They have been impressive defensively thus far holding Utah Tech to 7 points and 184 yards and Arizona to 17 points and 327 yards.  They have 76 rush attempts compared to just 48 pass attempts through two games.

Colorado State has a dual-threat QB as well and wants to run the ball this season.  They are rushing for 225 yards per game in consecutive wins over Wyoming and Southern Utah.  Their offense will certainly face more resistance against BYU, and a Colorado State defense that is loaded with solid transfer starters should be able to hold up against this mediocre Cougars offense.  Jim Mora brought several UConn transfers with him especially on defense, so they are used to the scheme.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* BYU/Colorado State CBS No-Brainer on Colorado State +18

Jim Mora is one of the better head coaches in the country.  He took UConn to three bowls in four years after just one bowl appearance in the previous 11 seasons combined for the program.  He brought several UConn transfers with him and had his choice of what job he wanted, and he chose Colorado State for a reason.

Mora has the Rams off and running opening 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS while covering the spread by a combined 35.5 points.  They beat Wyoming 35-13 as 3-point favorites while outgaining them by 123 yards.  They beat Southern Utah 58-24 as 19.5-point favorites while outgaining them by 236 yards.

I like Oklahoma State transfer Hauss Hejny at QB.  He was one of the top recruits in the country coming out of HS.  Hejny is a dual-threat, throwing for 539 yards with a 9-to-1 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 124 yards anda. score while averaging 10.3 per carry.  The defense should be pretty good with six starts between transfers and returnees.

BYU is getting a lot of respect early in the season after making the Big 12 Championship Game last season.  The Cougars had a ton of breaks go their way in close games and I think they are overrated as a result.  They went 8-1 in Big 12 play despite only outgaining Big 12 opponents by 37 yards per game.  They were 4-0 in games decided by a TD or less.  When they really stepped up in class with their two meetings with Texas Tech, they lost by 22 and 27 points.

It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Cougars now after opening 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS this season to improved to 12-4 ATS since the start of last season.  They beat Utah Tech 63-7 before beating Arizona 28-17 at home.  Arizona's best receiver was lost for the game in the 1st quarter and their offense wasn't the same after.  Yet another break for BYU.

But now the Cougars in in a sandwich spot and playing their first true road game this season.  They are coming off the big win over Arizona, and they have a road game against TCU on deck in Big 12 play.  Teams tend to have letdowns when they step out of conference in between conference games.  And this will be a great atmosphere for a Saturday night home game in Fort Collins for the Rams.  Bet Colorado State Saturday.

20* Michigan State/Notre Dame NBC No-Brainer on Michigan State +30.5

The forecast is going to aid us in cashing this +30.5 ticket on Michigan State..  There is a 90% chance of rain throughout the entirety of the game Saturday night.  I expect a sloppy, ugly, low-scoring game as a result, which really favors the big underdog.

Notre Dame had one of the most misleading wins of Week 1.  The Fighting Irish beat Wisconsin 41-13 despite only outgaining them by 66 yards.  They benefited from being +2 in turnovers as Wisconsin gifted them two touchdowns.  And that's a Wisconsin team that isn't very good and one that was banged up coming into the game.

What stood out most from the Wisconsin game is just that lack of playmakers on offense.  The Fighting Irish managed just 350 total yards and 5.7 per play against Wisconsin.  The losses of two first-round draft picks at RB really showed as new RB Aneyas Williams isn't nearly as explosive.  He's more of a grinder who churns out the tough yards but can't break the big run like Love and Price could.

I like QB CJ Carr, but he just doesn't have much talent to work with at receiver, either.  Carr went 19-of-29 passing for 239 yards and 2 TD in the win.  Jordan Faison had 4 receptions for 81 yards and is really their only proven playmaker.  The rest of the faces are new at receiver and TE and it showed.

Notre Dame was gifted a couple more TD's against Rice in a 52-0 victory in Week 2 as 44.5-point favorites.  Rice lost four fumbles in the game, including a 24-yard fumble return TD on the first play from scrimmage.  The other three fumbles helped set up easy scores, too.

Most alarming is the fact that Notre Dame just cannot run the ball even against Wisconsin and Rice.  The Fighting Irish are averaging just 114.5 rushing yards per game and 3.6 per carry through two games.  They're going to need to run the ball in these likely sloppy conditions.  I think the fact that Notre Dame won and covered its first two games with misleading finals gives us a few extra points of value here on Michigan State.

Pat Fitzgerald was known for overachieving at Northwestern with elite defenses and ball control offenses.  He hasn't changed, and he will do the same at Michigan State to try and make them competitive.  So far so good as the Spartans are off to a 2-0 start with a 30-20 win over Toledo and a 35-7 win over Eastern Michigan.  The defense held up allowing 273 yards to Toledo and 219 to EMU.

Michigan State has been strong at the line of scrimmage which is a staple of Fitzgerald teams.  They are rushing for 204 yards per game and allowing just 89 rushing yards per game.  QB Alessio Milivojevic got his feet wet last season and has benefited from those extra reps.  He is completing 70.4% of his passes with a 3-to-0 TD/INT ratio thus far.

Fitzgerald won as a player at Notre Dame in 1995 as 28-point underdogs and as a coach in 2014 as 17-point dogs.  He is rarely this big of an underdog as a head coach.  In fact, this is the biggest spread in the 80-year history of the rivalry between MSU and ND.  It's simply too many points.  Bet Michigan State Saturday.

15* New Mexico/Oklahoma ESPN 2 ANNIHILATOR on New Mexico +22

Jason Eck is flying under the radar as one of the best coaches in the country.  New Mexico hadn't been to a bowl game since 2016 when he took over last year.  He promptly led the Lobos to a 9-4 season despite just seven returning starters.  The four losses came to Michigan by 17, SJSU by 7, Boise State by 16 and Minnesota by 3 to prove they can hang with the big boys.

Eck brought back 11 starters this season including his son in LB Jaxton Eck, who was first-team All-Mountain West last year with 129 tackles.  Five of the top seven tacklers are back on defense.  I know they lost QB Jack Layne to a season-ending injury, but backup Luke Moga is a very talented Oregon transfer and is making the most of his opportunity.

New Mexico is 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS this season.  The Lobos blasted Central Michigan 38-7 as 10.5-point favorites and Mercyhurt 70-7 as 42.5-point favorites.  The defense has been elite, holding CMU to 149 yards and 3.1 per play and Mercyhurt to 155 yards and 2.8 per play.  Moga is completing 65.4% of his passes with a 3-to-0 TD/INT ratio, and Scottre Humphrey has rushed for 174 yards and 3 TD.

Oklahoma has the same problems as last year.  The Sooners have an elite defense but a terrible offense.  Their 51-0 win over UTEP was misleading because UTEP missed three field goals, and Oklahoma scored 51 despite just 401 total yards.  The Sooners were exposed last week in a 17-10 loss at Michigan as 5.5-point favorites.

QB John Mateer is simply inaccurate.  He is completing just 56% of his passes through two games, and he hasn't been much of a dual-threat either with just 52 rushing yards on 16 carries and 3.3 per carry.  It has been alarming that Oklahoma cannot run the football with any consistency, either.  They are rushing for 135 yards per game and 4.0 per carry.  They just don't have the offense to cover these big numbers.

Oklahoma ranks 84th in tempo snapping the ball every 27.7 seconds.  What helps make New Mexico competitive the last two seasons is slowing the game down and limiting possessions.  The Lobos rank 125th in tempo this season snapping the ball every 31.7 seconds.  They will try to shorten this game as well.

This is the ultimate sandwich spot for Oklahoma.  After the big road game at Michigan last week, the Sooners now have two bigger games on deck the next two weeks against Georgia and Texas.  They will be concerned with getting players healthy going into those two brutal SEC games.  They'll be without their best WR in Trell Harris (6 receptions, 104 yards, 1 TD) and their best LB in Kip Lewis, who led the team in tackles last season.  Starting LT Michael Fasusi is out as well.  Bet New Mexico Saturday.

20* CFB DOG OF THE WEEK on Charlotte +18

Tim Albin took Ohio to three straight 10-win seasons and its first MAC title since 1968 before taking the job at Charlotte last season.  The cupboard was bare as Charlotte replaced almost everyone.  Now Albin has more of the players he wants in place in Year 2, and the 49ers should be one of the most improved teams in the country after a disastrous 1-11 campaign last season that has them undervalued this season.

Yes, Charlotte lost outright 43-41 (OT) to FCS opponent The Citadel in the opener, but that misleading result will provide us line value o the 49ers moving forward.  Charlotte outgained The Citadel 538 to 400 for the game, or by 138 total yards.  And I really liked what I saw from the new pieces on offense.

Charlotte QB Cole Gonzales went 28-of-41 passing for 322 yards and 3 TD against The Citadel.  He transferred in from Western Carolina after throwing for 6,682 yards and 52 TD the past two seasons there.  App State transfer Khamani Alexander rushed for 138 yards on 14 carries.  Another App State transfer in Jaden Barnes had 7 receptions for 93 yards, while returnee Jaylen Hampton had 8 receptions for 117 yards and 2 TD.

I took advantage of the value last week and backed Charlotte +47.5 against Ole Miss.  The Rebels didn't even score 48 points, beating Charlotte 41-9 as the cover was never in question.  Ole Miss only outgained Charlotte by 98 yards as it was much closer than the final score would suggest.  Charlotte put up 322 yards on this Ole Miss defense.

It's time to 'sell high' on Appalachian State this week.  The Mountaineers are off to a 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS start this season.  They beat Maine 55-3 as 20.5-point favorites before upsetting East Carolina 27-24 as 6.5-point road dogs.  Maine is a terrible FCS team, and ECU is a rebuilding team that lost almost everyone from last year.  And they were outgained by ECU by 21 yards.

There's not a lot to like about this rebuilding App State team, either.  The Mountaineers only brought back four starters this season and only added one previous starter in the transfer portal.  It's a bad spot for the Mountaineers too with NC State on deck, a huge game against a Power 4 opponent they could easily be looking ahead to.  Either way, I don't think they should be favored by more than two touchdowns against this improved 49ers team.  Bet Charlotte Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on UTEP +36

The forecast will aid us in cashing this UTEP +36 ticket against Michigan today.  Temps will be in the 60's with a good chance of rain throughout the game and double-digit winds as well.  These are two offenses I'm not fond of, and two underrated defenses.  I look for it to be a low-scoring, defensive battle which favors the big underdog catching points.

The Wolverines beat Western Michigan 13-12 as 27.5-point favorites in Week 1.  They got a great break with one second being put back on the clock to allow them to convert a hail mary on the final play.  They beat Oklahoma 17-10 as 5.5-point dogs last week.  And after that big effort, they have their Big 12 opener against Iowa on deck, making this the ultimate sandwich spot.  They just want to get in and get out with a win.  They won't be concerned with running the score up.

This Michigan offense looks broken behind one of the most overrated QB's in the country in Bryce Underwood, who just struggles to complete forward passes.  Michigan was held to 276 yards by Western Michigan and 263 yards by Oklahoma.  Underwood is completing just 53.8% of his passes, and he is being used a lot more in the running game now because the passing offense is broken.  I think Michigan will be even more predictable this week not wanting to get Underwood hurt thus not running him as much, which will limit the offense even more.

UTEP lost 51-0 to Oklahoma and beat Texas Southern 51-10.  What stood out was UTEP held Oklahoma to 401 total yards in a very misleading final.  They also missed three field goals in that game, so they moved the ball but couldn't capitalize.  They held Texas Southern to 211 yards.  This defense looks greatly improved this season, holding its first two opponents to 141 rushing yards per game and 3.6 per carry.  I think they can hold up against Michigan's subpar rushing attack that is averaging just 3.9 yards per carry this season.

UTEP is playing much slower this season ranking 112th out of 138 teams in tempo snapping the ball every 29.5 seconds.  Michigan is playing slow, too, ranking 110th in tempo at 29.3 seconds per offensive snap.  There will be fewer possessions in this game and fewer opportunities for the Wolverines to pull away as a result.  Look for Michigan to get a lead and salt the clock away in the 2H to keep the Miners within the number.  Bet UTEP Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on UTEP/Michigan UNDER 49.5

The forecast will aid us in cashing this UNDER 49.5 ticket between UTEP and Michigan today.  Temps will be in the 60's with a good chance of rain throughout the game and double-digit winds as well.  These are two offenses I'm not fond of, and two underrated defenses.

Michigan is 2-0 UNDER in two games and both flew under the total.  The Wolverines beat Western Michigan 13-12 for 25 combined points only after getting a great break with one second being put back on the clock to allow them to convert a hail mary on the final play.  They beat Oklahoma 17-10 for 27 combined points last week.

This Michigan defense held WMU to 221 yards and 3.3 per play.  They held Oklahoma to 289 yards and 4.7 per play.  But their own offense looks broken behind one of the most overrated QB's in the country in Bryce Underwood, who just struggles to complete forward passes.  Michigan was held to 276 yards by Western Michigan and 263 yards by Oklahoma.  Underwood is completing just 53.8% of his passes.

UTEP lost 51-0 to Oklahoma and beat Texas Southern 51-10.  What stood out was UTEP held Oklahoma to 401 total yards in a very misleading final.  They held Texas Southern to 211 yards.  This defense looks greatly improved this season, holding its first two opponents to 141 rushing yards per game and 3.6 per carry.

UTEP is playing much slower this season ranking 112th out of 138 teams in tempo snapping the ball every 29.5 seconds.  Michigan is playing slow, too, ranking 110th in tempo at 29.3 seconds per offensive snap.  Look for Michigan to get a lead and salt the clock away in the 2H to keep this thing UNDER the total.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Wyoming/Central Michigan UNDER 39

This is one of the lowest totals on the board this week but it's not low enough.  The forecast will aid us in cashing this UNDER 39 ticket between Wyoming and Central Michigan today.  Temps will be in the 50's with a 50% chance of rain throughout.  These are two of the slowest, most run-heavy offenses in college football that will also aid us in cashing this UNDER 39 ticket.

Central Michigan ranked 134th out of 136 teams in tempo last season snapping the ball every 30.8 seconds.  Central Michigan enters Year 2 under Matt Drinkall who guided Army to the Joe Moore Award as the nation's best offensive line as the O-Line coach there.  He believes in running the football with a Power Spread offense that takes advantage of a QB's running ability.  The Chippewas are the rare team that still uses a fullback, which alone screams dead nuts UNDER team.

The Chippewas were indeed an UNDER team last season scoring just 22.5 points per game on offense and allowing just 23.5 points per game on defense.  They did a great job of shortening games to stay competitive and were rewarded with a trip to a bowl game in Drinkall's first season.  It's not a fun brand to play, but it is a way to be competitive.

The offense will struggle again this season with the losses of their top three receivers and their top two RB's.  The defense should be solid again with several quality transfers brought in by Drinkall and he will have his players in place now.

Central Michigan lost 38-7 to New Mexico in the opener. The offense was held to 149 yards and 3.1 per play.  The defense played better than the score showed holding the Lobos to 364 yards.  The Chippewas went on to beat lowly Colgate 13-10 for just 23 combined points. They managed just 276 yards on offense while holding Colgate to 219 yards on defense.  The only reason they are 68th in tempo this season is because they had to speed it up playing from behind against New Mexico.

Speaking of woeful offenses, Wyoming lost 35-13 to Colorado State in the opener and was held to 273 yards.  Wyoming went on to a 21-13 win over FCS Northern Colorado, getting held to 304 yards.  Wyoming ranks 129th out of 138 teams this season in tempo snapping the ball every 33.5 seconds.

Wyoming has 68 rush attempts compared to 45 pass attempts this season.  Central Michigan has 72 rush attempts compared to 37 pass attempts.  The clock will keep moving, the defenses will hold the offenses in check, and the weather will help keep this UNDER the 39-point total today.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Afternoon BLOWOUT on Georgia -24.5

The Georgia Bulldogs are a wagon this season and a legit national title contender.  They brought back 12 starters from last season and added as much talent as anyone.  They are off to a 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS start this season taking no mercy.  They beat Tennessee State 63-3 and Western Kentucky 70-20.

Now they will take no mercy on Arkansas.  The Razorbacks are the worst team in the SEC this season.  They have a first-year head coach in Ryan Silverfield, who will now pay for making jokes about Georgia while at Memphis last season, criticizing their off-field speedings and arrest issues.

Arkansas beat North Alabama 31-14 as 40.5-point favorites in the opener, failing to cover by 23.5 points.  North Alabama went on to lose to SE Alabama 30-25.  Arkansas then lost 43-10 as 12.5-point dogs at Utah, failing to cover by 20.5 points.  The books just can't catch up to how bad this team is, and they haven't caught up this week, either.

QB KJ Jackson has been terrible completing just 55.1% of his passes with a 3-to-2 TD/INT ratio while averaging 5.9 per attempts.  He isn't much of a dual-threat either with 3.6 yards per carry.  Top RB's Russell (2.8 YPC) and Smith (2.2 YPC) can't get anything going on the ground to help him out.  And keep in mind these numbers include a game against North Alabama.  Bet Georgia Saturday.

20* CFB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Michigan State/Notre Dame UNDER 52.5

The forecast is going to aid us in cashing this UNDER 52.5 ticket between Michigan State and Notre Dame.  There is a 90% chance of rain throughout the entirety of the game Saturday night.  I expect a sloppy, ugly, low-scoring game as a result.

Notre Dame had one of the most misleading wins of Week 1.  The Fighting Irish beat Wisconsin 41-13 despite only outgaining them by 66 yards.  They benefited from being +2 in turnovers as Wisconsin gifted them two touchdowns.  And that's a Wisconsin team that isn't very good and one that was banged up coming into the game.

What stood out most from the Wisconsin game is just that lack of playmakers on offense.  The Fighting Irish managed just 350 total yards and 5.7 per play against Wisconsin.  The losses of two first-round draft picks at RB really showed as new RB Aneyas Williams isn't nearly as explosive.  He's more of a grinder who churns out the tough yards but can't break the big run like Love and Price could.

I like QB CJ Carr, but he just doesn't have much talent to work with at receiver, either.  Carr went 19-of-29 passing for 239 yards and 2 TD in the win.  Jordan Faison had 4 receptions for 81 yards and is really their only proven playmaker.  The rest of the faces are new at receiver and TE and it showed.

Notre Dame was gifted a couple more TD's against Rice in a 52-0 victory in Week 2.  Rice lost four fumbles in the game, including a 24-yard fumble return TD on the first play from scrimmage.  The other three fumbles helped set up easy scores, too.  But Notre Dame held Rice to 128 total yards and 2.8 per play.

Without question, Notre Dame has one of the best defenses in the country.  The Fighting Irish returned nine starters on defense this season which is unheard of for a program of their caliber.  They allowed 17.6 points per game last season and will be even better this season.  They allowed 15 points per game the two previous seasons under Marcus Freeman.

Pat Fitzgerald was known for overachieving at Northwestern with elite defenses and ball control offenses.  He hasn't changed, and he will do the same at Michigan State to try and make them competitive.  So far so good as the Spartans are off to a 2-0 start with a 30-20 win over Toledo and a 35-7 win over Eastern Michigan.  The defense held up allowing 273 yards to Toledo and 219 to EMU.

Notre Dame ranks 116th out of 138 teams in tempo snapping the ball every 30.2 seconds.  Michigan State ranks 95th snapping the ball every 28.2 seconds.  This will be a defensive battle that stays UNDER this inflated 52.5-point total.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* CFB Saturday Early ANNIHILATOR on Bowling Green/Iowa State UNDER 44.5

The Cyclones hired Jimmy Rogers from Washington State.  The Cougars ranked 125th in tempo last season as Rogers played slow to try and give his team the best chance to win knowing he was under-manned.  The result was a 9-3 UNDER record in the regular season and 49 or fewer combined points in 10 of those 12 games.

Rogers will have to do the same thing at Iowa State to try and make the Cyclones competitive.  His Washington State team had an elite defense allowing 20.2 points per game.  He brought his defensive coordinator with him that served under him at Washington State and also South Dakota State prior in Jesse Bobbit.  He also added offensive coordinator Tyler Roehl, who ran a run-heavy scheme at North Dakota State.

The Cyclones lose all 22 starters from last season as everyone transferred with Matt Campbell to Penn State.  I like some of the talent Rogers brought in defensively and he will have a good defense this season and everywhere he goes.  But the offense is a problem outside QB Jaylen Raynor, the dual-threat Arkansas State transfer.  But it's not like the Cyclones are going to crush it offensively at all this season.

Iowa State played to my expectations in Week 1 in a 38-10 win over SE Missouri State.  The offense managed just 303 total yards including 108 rushing on 3.5 per carry against a FCS opponent.  The defense held them to 209 total yards, including 67 rushing and 1.5 per carry.  That game finished UNDER the 52.5-point total and shouldn't have even been that close given the stats.

Iowa State came back last week with a 16-13 loss at Iowa and just 29 combined points with a 42.5-point total for yet another UNDER.  The Cyclones were held to 255 total yards, but they showed their defensive chops by holding the Hawkeyes to 284 total yards and 4.8 per play.

Now Iowa State plays a Bowling Green team with one of the worst offenses in the country.  The Falcons lost 20-13 to FCS Tarleton State in the opener.  They lost 56-7 to Nebraska last week and were held to 169 yards and 3.5 per play.  That's an elite Nebraska offense that has lit up its first two opponents.  Bowling Green won't have to face anything like that this week.

Both teams play at a snail's pace which will aid us here.  Iowa State ranks 133rd out of 138 teams in seconds per play (34.3), while Bowling Green ranks 131st at 34 seconds per play.  The forecast could also come into play with a good chance of rain throughout the game and 10 MPH winds.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.