Jack Jones

Jack's Free Pick Friday: Yankees/Brewers OVER 7

The books are giving both Max Fried and Jacob Misiorowski too much respect here setting this total at 7.  These are two of the best lineups in baseball, and I expect them to do enough damage off these two aces and bullpens to cash this OVER 7 ticket.

The Yankees are scoring 5.5 runs per game this season. They have scored at least 7 runs in six of their last seven games overall while averaging 8.0 runs per game during this stretch.  They should get to Misiorowski, where the OVER is 5-2 in his seven starts this season with 7 or more combined runs in six of those seven starts, and 8 or more in five of them.

The Brewers are scoring 5.2 runs per game this season and just recently got one of their best hitters in Jackson Chourio to make his season debut.  He has opened with 6 hits in 9 at-bats including three doubles.  They are averaging 6.4 runs per game in their last eight games.

The OVER is 4-2 in Fried's last six starts with 9 or more combined runs in four of those six games.  Fried has allowed 9 runs, 5 earned, and 18 base runners in 10 2/3 innings in his last two starts against the Brewers.  The OVER is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings between the Yankees and Brewers with 10 or more combined runs in eight of those contests.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

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15* NBA Friday Night Line Mistake on Minnesota Timberwolves +5

This line is an overreaction from the Spurs winning 133-95 in Game 2.  The Spurs were in must-win mode after getting upset by the Timberwolves at home in Game 1.  Minnesota simply did not show up as I predicted, content with a 1-1 split.  The Spurs were 'all in' and it showed.

Now it's the Timberwolves' turn to respond here in Game 3 at home.  They have been awesome at home in these playoffs going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS last series against the Nuggets with the three wins all coming in blowout fashion by 17, 16 and 12 points.  They have one of the best home-court advantages in the playoffs.

The Spurs are a young team that will face their most hostile atmosphere ever in the playoffs.  I don't expect them to respond very well to it in Game 3.  The Timberwolves have Anthony Edwards back healthy, and there's a good chance they'll get Ayo Dosunmu tonight as well, but they have proven they can win without him.

The Spurs went with their small ball lineup in the 4th quarter of Game 1 that absolutely changed the game.  It's one of the most deadly lineups in the NBA.  They didn't use that card in Game 2 because the game got out of hand.  Chris Finch will pull that card for Game 3 tonight, and it will be effective again.  Bet the Timberwolves Friday.

20* AL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on A's/Orioles OVER 9

We have two hot lineups and two terrible pitching staffs that should lead to a plethora of runs in Game 1 of this series between the A's and Orioles.  The A's have scored at least 5 runs in six of their last eight games overall.

The Orioles are 14-2-1 OVER in their last 17 games overall finishing with 9 or more combined runs in 14 of them.  The OVER is 5-1 in A's last six games overall and they have finished with 9 or more combined runs in six of their last seven games.

Jacob Lopez is 2-2 with a 6.60 ERA and 1.87 WHIP in six starts this season, allowing 22 earned runs, 6 homers and 56 base runners in 30 innings.  He is backed by a poor A's bullpen with a 4.82 ERA this season.

Kyle Bradish is 1-4 with a 5.56 ERA and 1.85 WHIP in seven starts this season, allowing 21 earned runs, 5 homers and 63 base runners in 34 innings.  He is backed by an awful Baltimore bullpen with a 4.70 ERA this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* MLB Friday Total DOMINATOR on Cubs/Rangers OVER 8.5

The Chicago Cubs are 20-8-2 OVER in their last 30 games overall.  They have gone for 9 or more combined runs in 21 of those 30 games.  They are hitting the cover off the ball scoring 7 runs or more in 13 of their last 24 games, and they are scoring 5.5 runs per game on the season.

The Cubs should hang a big number on Kumar Rocker, who is 1-3 with a 4.71 ERA and 1.43 WHIP in six starts this season.  He has allowed 15 earned runs and 41 base runners in 28 2/3 innings.  He allowed 5 earned runs in 2 innings to the Rangers in his last start.

Injuries to their rotation will have Chicago making this a bullpen game.  Ben Brown will make his first start of the season for the Cubs tonight.  He struggled in his lone previous appearance against Texas, allowing 6 runs in 1 2/3 innings.  

The OVER is 7-1 in the last eight meetings between the Cubs and Rangers.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* Interleague PLAY OF THE DAY on Astros/Reds OVER 9

The Houston Astros are a dead nuts OVER team going 25-12-2 OVER in all games this season.  They are scoring 4.9 runs per game and allowing 5.8 runs per game.  They have the worst bullpen in baseball with a 6.29 ERA.

The Reds are 10-3 OVER in their last 13 games overall with 9 or more combined runs in 11 of those 13 games.  Their bullpen has posted a 4.39 ERA and 1.59 WHIP this season.

The Reds should crush Michael Burrows, who is 1-4 with a 5.97 ERA and 1.65 WHIP in seven starts this season.  He has allowed 25 earned runs, 8 homers and 62 base runners in 37 2/3 innings.

Nick Lodolo is making his first start of the season for the Reds as he comes back earlier than expected from injury due to other injuries in this Cincinnati rotation.  I don't expect it to go well for him.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

25* NBA 2nd Round GAME OF THE YEAR on Philadelphia 76ers ML +110

I love the spot for the Philadelphia 76ers tonight.  They are desperate for a win down 2-0 to the Knicks and playing their first home game in Game 3.  It will be an 'all in' effort for the 76ers, and the Knicks will relax having a 2-0 lead in this series.

Joel Embiid sat out Game 2 and the 76ers nearly upset the Knicks without him.  They have played well in the playoffs without him going 4-2 ATS in the six games they have played without Embiid.  So even though I expect him to return tonight after resting in Game 2, I expect the 76ers to win this game either way.

The Knicks had some injuries of their own suffered in Game 2.  OG Anunoby suffered a hamstring injury that could keep him out for this game if the Knicks decide to play it cautiously with that 2-0 lead.  Anunoby has been a monster for the Knicks in the playoffs scoring at least 17 points in six consecutive games, so it would be a huge loss.  Josh Hart also has an injured thumb that he's going to play through as well.

The 76ers are 10-1 ATS off a loss by 6 points or less this season.  Bet the 76ers on the Money Line Friday.