Jack Jones

Jack's Free Pick Saturday: Pittsburgh Pirates -147

After losing Game 1 by a final of 6-2 to the Blue Jays despite giving up just 5 hits, the Pittsburgh Pirates will bounce back in Game 2 today thanks to their big advantages on the mound and at the plate.  They are also very unlikely to commit 3 errors again considering they committed a total of 4 errors in their previous 17 games combined.

Paul Skenes remains arguably the best starter in baseball.  He is 6-3 with a 2.78 ERA and 0.73 WHIP in 10 starts this season, including 3-1 with a 2.61 ERA and 0.68 WHIP in four road starts.  Skenes allowed 2 earned runs in 6 innings with 8 K's in a 5-2 win over the Blue Jays in his lone career start against them.

No doubt Patrick Corbin has been better the past two seasons since getting out of Washington where he posted a 5.20 ERA or worse in four consecutive seasons while finishing with 31 starts or more in all four.  He posted a 4.40 ERA last season in Texas, and he has a 4.23 ERA thus far in eight starts for the Blue Jays.

But make no mistake about it, Corbin remains one of the worst starters in baseball.  He has posted a 6.23 ERA and 1.92 WHIP in three home starts this season, allowing 9 earned runs and 25 base runners in 13 innings.  Corbin allowed 7 earned runs and 3 homers in 6 innings of a 7-3 loss to the Pirates in his last start against them.  

The Blue Jays have a poor, banged up lineup right now.  They have 9 or fewer hits in 12 consecutive games and 6 or fewer hits in seven of those.  They are scoring just 4.1 runs per game this season.  The Pirates have one of the most improved offenses in baseball scoring 4.9 runs per game.  They have 10 or more hits in five of their last eight games overall.  Bet the Pirates Saturday.

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20* MLB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Nationals/Braves OVER 8.5

The Nationals are a dead nuts OVER team.  They have gone 33-16-3 OVER in all games this season.  They are scoring 5.5 runs per game and allowing 5.8 runs per game.  They have gone for 9 or more combined runs in nine of their last 11 games overall, including 15 runs or more in six of them.  This total of 8.5 is too short for a game involving the Nationals right now.

The Braves have arguably the most potent offense in baseball scoring 5.4 runs per game this season.  And they have been without their best hitter in Ronald Acuna Jr. for a couple weeks, but he made his return from injury last series.  Atlanta is 6-0 OVER in its last six games overall with 9 or more combined runs in all six.

The Braves are capable of covering this total on their own against Jake Irvin and this awful Washington bullpen that has a 4.90 ERA this season.  Irvin is 1-4 with a 5.59 ERA and 1.46 WHIP in 10 starts this season, allowing 29 earned runs in 46 2/3 innings.  Irvin has allowed 8 earned runs and 3 homers in 11 innings in this last two starts against Atlanta.

Grant Holmes is 3-1 with a 3.80 ERA and 1.27 WHIP in nine starts this season.  Holmes has allowed 15 earned runs and 5 homers in 29 2/3 innings in his last six starts coming in.  Both bullpens are taxed after going 11 innings last night.

The OVER is 4-0-1 in five meetings between the Braves and Nationals this season with 9 or more combined runs in all five, and 13 or more in three of them.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Knicks/Cavs Game 3 Total DOMINATOR on OVER 214

Cleveland has played at a much faster tempo and has been much more efficient offensively at home in these playoffs.  The OVER is 5-2 in all Cleveland home playoff games with 215 or more combined points in six of those seven games.  This total of 214 is too short tonight.

The Cavs are due some positive shooting regression after shooting 40% from the field in Game 1 and 38.8% from the field in Game 2, including 25.7% from 3.  Strus, Merrill and Tyson went a combined 1-for-14 from 3 in Game 2.  Cleveland's role players will shoot it much better at home as they have all playoffs.

The Knicks have been an offensive juggernaut in these playoffs during their 9-game winning streak.  They have shot 50% or better from the field in eight of those nine games.  They will continue to have offensive success tonight against the Cavs to do their part to aid us in cashing this OVER 214 ticket.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Knicks/Cavs Game 3 No-Brainer on Cleveland ML -130

The Cavs were down 2-0 to the Detroit Pistons last series and came back to win in Game 7.  They have that memory to give them some belief they can still make this a series with the Knicks, starting with a Game 3 win at home today.

Home teams have dominated in the playoffs in all Cleveland games.  In fact, they are 13-3 SU in all games involving Cleveland.  I think we see the best effort of the playoffs yet from the Cavs at home in Game 3.  We see this every year in the playoffs teams down 2-0 in a series playing their first home game usually dominate.

There's reason to believe the Cavs are going to be much better at home here.  They shot 40% from the field in Game 1's OT loss to the Knicks, and they shot even worse in Game 2 at 38.8% from the field and 25.7% from 3.

Role players tend to shoot better at home, and that will be the case for the Cavs here.  Strus, Merrill and Tyson went a combined 1-for-14 from 3 in Game 2.  These are three shooters they are relying on to spread the Knicks out, and they will be much better at home.  Bet the Cavs on the Money Line in Game 3 Saturday.