Jack Jones

Jack's Free Pick Wednesday: Nationals/Phillies OVER 7.5

The Phillies are scoring 4.5 runs per game and allowing 4.5 runs per game this season.  They are capable of more offensively with all their talent.  The Nationals are scoring 4.3 runs per game but rank 26th in baseball allowing 5.2 runs per game with a dreadful staff.

The OVER is 7-1 in the last eight meetings between the Nationals and Phillies with 9 or more combined runs in seven of those eight meetings.  That includes the wild 7-6 win by the Phillies last night where both teams had to use their closers, and both closers blew saves in the 9th.  These are the two worst bullpens in baseball to this point with the Nationals having a 7.47 ERA and the Phillies a 5.25 ERA.

The Phillies are capable of covering this total on their own tonight.  Jake Irvin is 0-3 with a 5.57 ERA and 1.39 WHIP in six career starts against the Phillies.  He has allowed 12 earned runs, 4 homers and 26 base runners in 15 1/3 innings in his last three starts against Philadelphia.

Cristopher Sanchez has allowed 9 earned runs, 3 homers and 28 base runners in 21 innings in his last four starts for the Phillies coming in.  The Nationals will do enough against him and this Philadelphia bullpen to cash this OVER 7.5 ticket tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

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15* NL Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Cubs/Pirates OVER 8.5

The Cubs rank 1st in baseball scoring 6.0 runs per game this season.  The OVER is 17-4-1 in the last 22 meetings with 8 or more combined runs in 18 of those 22 meetings, and 9 or more combined runs in 17 of those.

The Cubs covered the total on their own in Game 1 scoring 9 runs yesterday.  They are capable of doing it again facing Carmen Mlodzinki, who is 1-3 with a 6.95 ERA and 1.82 WHIP in five starts this season allowing 17 earned runs and 40 base runners in 22 innings.

Regression has hit Matthew Boyd in his last three starts, allowing 11 runs, 8 earned, 3 homers and 26 base runners in 17 1/3 innings.  Boyd has allowed 8 earned runs and 2 homers in 10 2/3 innings in his last two starts against the Pirates.  Pittsburgh will do enough off of him to aid us in cashing this OVER 8.5 ticket.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* DBacks/Mets NL ANNIHILATOR on OVER 8

Two of the best offenses in baseball square off in this series.  The Diamondbacks rank 3rd in the majors scoring 5.3 runs per game.  The Mets rank 9th scoring 4.8 runs per game.  The OVER is 6-0 in DBacks last six games overall with 10 or more combined runs in all six games.  The Mets are scorching hot scoring 34 runs in their last three games and have scored at least 4 runs in 10 of their last 12 games overall.

Corbin Burnes hasn't been great in his first season with the Diamondbacks, going 0-1 with a 4.05 ERA and 1.35 WHIP in five starts.  Burnes hates facing the Mets, allowing 11 earned runs and 3 homers in 10 innings in his last two starts against them.

Huascar Brazoban is nothing more than an opener for the Mets and they will be making this a bullpen game.  Arizona should hang a big number today.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* Cardinals/Reds NL Central Early ANNIHILATOR on OVER 9 (Game 1)

These are two underrated offenses with suspect pitching staffs.  The Reds rank 4th in baseball scoring 5.3 runs per game.  The Cardinals rank 12th scoring 4.5 runs per game.  The Reds are scoring 7.3 runs per game in their last 11 games.  They have scored at least 5 runs in 12 of their last 17 games.

The Reds will stay hot against Miles Mikolas, who is 0-2 with a 5.70 ERA and 1.52 WHIP in five starts this season while allowing 15 earned runs in 23 2/3 innings.  Mikolas does not enjoy facing the Reds, allowing 17 earned runs and 4 homers in 16 2/3 innings in his last three starts against them.  He is 2-4 with a 5.91 ERA in eight career starts in Cincinnati.

Brady Singer has allowed 11 earned runs, 3 homers and 28 base runners in 20 1/3 innings in his last four starts.  Singer allowed 3 earned runs and 8 base runners in 3 innings in his lone career start against the Cardinals.  Bet the OVER in Game 1 of this double-header Wednesday.

20* Yankees/Orioles AL East No-Brainer on OVER 9.5

The Yankees rank 2nd in MLB scoring 5.8 runs per game this season.  The Orioles are scoring 4.0 runs per game and capable of much more.  But the Orioles rank 28th in baseball allowing 5.7 runs per game with a dreadful staff.

Two of the worst starters on their respective staffs go tonight in what should be another slug fest after the Yankees won 15-3 yesterday, and there have now been 11 or more combined runs in four of their last six meetings.  Temps will be in the 70's with almost no wind so the ball should be flying out again.

38-year-old Carlos Carrasco went 3-8 with a 6.80 ERA in 20 starts in 2023, 3-10 with a 5.64 ERA in 21 starts in 2024 and 2-1 with a 5.23 ERA in five starts in 2025.  It's unthinkable the Yankees have him as part of their rotation, but injuries have forced their hand.

Cade Povich is 4-11 with a 5.16 ERA and 1.50 WHIP in 21 career starts for the Orioles, including 1-2 with a 5.04 ERA and 1.72 WHIP in five starts in 2025.  Povich allowed 3 earned runs and 10 base runners in 5 1/3 innings in his last start against the Yankees.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* MLB Wednesday Afternoon Total DOMINATOR on Marlins/Dodgers OVER 9.5

The forecast will aid us in cashing this OVER 8.5 ticket between the Marlins and Dodgers this afternoon.  Temps will be in the 70's with light winds blowing out to center in Los Angeles.

The Dodgers are heating up at the plate scoring 5.2 runs per game on the season and 6 runs or more in six of their last seven games coming in with the OVER going 6-1 in those seven games with 11 or more combined runs in six of them.  The only game that went under was a pitcher's duel between aces in Skenes and Yamamoto.

The Miami Marlins have quietly been a dead nuts OVER team this season.  They are 20-9 OVER in all games scoring 4.4 runs per game but ranking dead last (30th) in baseball allowing 6.0 runs per game.  The OVER is 14-3 in Marlins last 17 games overall with 9 or more combined runs in 14 of those 17 games.

The OVER is 10-1 in the last 11 meetings with 9 or more combined runs in 10 of those 11 meetings.  The Dodgers are capable of covering this total on their own like they did last night in a 15-2 victory overt he Marlins.

Cal Quantrill is 2-2 with a 7.83 ERA and 1.78 WHIP in five starts this season allowing 20 earned runs in 23 innings with only 13 K's.  Quantrill allowed 12 earned runs and 29 base runners in 13 innings in his three starts against the Dodgers last season.

Tony Gonsolin will be making his first start since 2023 for the Dodgers.  He will clearly be on a pitch count.  The Dodgers have a gassed bullpen due to all their starting pitcher injuries to this point.  Gonsolin allowed 10 earned runs and 5 homers in 3 1/3 innings in his last start against the Marlins.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

25* NBA Playoffs 1st Round TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Timberwolves/Lakers OVER 209

Both the Lakers and Timberwolves have gone more small ball the last two games.  The Lakers are hardly playing Jaxson Hayes as he has played fewer than 10 minutes in all four games.  The Timberwolves are going with Naz Reid over Rudy Gobert more often than the regular season to match up better with the Lakers.

The result has been two games flying OVER the total in their last two with 220 combined points in Game 3 and 229 combined points in Game 4.  Oddsmakers have failed to adjust up for it enough in Game 5 with this total at 209 after closing at 209 in Game 4 as well.

Keep in mind Luka Doncic was sick for Game 3 and Game 4 and now he's back to full strength.  The Lakers are a tough team to tame offensively with Doncic, James and Reaves, and the Timberwolves have more offensive punch when Reid is in the lineup over Gobert.  Bet the OVER in Game 5 Wednesday.

20* Timberwolves/Lakers TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -5.5

Note: I like a Lakers/Clippers Money Line Parlay for Wednesday and Thursday at roughly even money.

The Los Angeles Lakers have let the Minnesota Timberwolves off the hook in this series.  This should be a 2-2 series but they are down 3-1, and thus have their backs against the wall in a must-win situation in Game 5.  The Timberwolves will relax a little knowing they only have to win one of their next three games to close out the Lakers, and the first close out game is always the hardest.

The Lakers played all five starters all 30 minutes in the 2H in Game 4 and they wore down late, blowing the lead and letting the Timberwolves steal a 116-113 victory.  Anthony Edwards talked about how the Lakers ran out of gas and were tired after the game, and that is going to really motivate the Lakers to come back and prove him wrong.  

The Lakers have now had the last two days off and will be fresh, pissed off and out for revenge in Game 5.  I expect them to roll.  Keep in mind Luka Doncic was battling illness in the two games in Minnesota and nearly didn't play in Game 3.  He is back to full strength now, and the Lakers are tough to tame with Doncic, James and Reaves leading the way.  Bet the Lakers Wednesday.