Jack Jones

15* Oklahoma/Georgia SEC ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 44.5

Two of the best defenses in the country square off today in this SEC opener between Oklahoma and Georgia.  I expect it to be the ultimate grinder with both defenses ahead of both offenses, and that's especially the case for Oklahoma.

Oklahoma made the college football playoff last season in spite of a terrible offense with QB John Mateer.  The Sooners allowed just 15.5 points per game last season despite the brutal schedule.  With seven starters back on D this season, they are elite again allowing just 7.7 points per game, 215.3 yards per game and 3.8 per play through the first three weeks.  Last year's leading tackler Kip Lewis (76 tackles, 4 sacks) is expected to return from injury this week to give the defense a boost.

I didn't think it was possible, but this Oklahoma offense looks even more broken this season.  They lost 17-10 at Michigan for just 27 combined points.  They only beat New Mexico 14-6 at home last week for just 20 combined points.  They are without two of their most important pieces on offense in LT Michael Fasusi and WR Trell Harris.

Georgia also has some questions on offense with leading rusher Nate Frazier and arguably their most talented receiver in Isiah Canion both questionable.  I think Gunner Stockton is a better runner than thrower, and he will finally be tested after one of the easiest schedules in the country thus far against FCS Tennessee State, Western Kentucky and the worst team in the SEC in Arkansas.  Georgia has been padding its offensive stats against some awful defenses.

Georgia has an elite defense that will step its game up this week.  The Bulldogs are allowing 13.3 points per game, 211.3 yards per game and 3.3 yards per play.  This despite them pulling starters in the 2H of most of these games thus far with them already in hand, allowing opponents to put up some points and yards late with the game in hand.  No starters will be coming out for this Georgia D today, and they will shut down Oklahoma to aid us in cashing this UNDER 44.5 ticket.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* Iowa/Michigan Big Ten ANNIHILATOR on Iowa +5.5

The Iowa Hawkeyes are a sleeper to win the Big Ten this season.  They finally have a legit offense which was evidenced by putting up 507 yards on Northern Illinois in a 40-0 victory.  They led 33-0 by halftime before calling off the dogs and still put up 507 yards.

They also beat Northern Iowa 55-0 behind 640 total yards.  I know it's an FCS team, but Iowa's offense is improved and wouldn't have put up that many points and yards on NIU and Northern Iowa in the past.  I think their 16-13 win over Iowa State has them undervalued.  That rivalry game is always close, and Iowa State is better than most anticipated.

Michigan's results have been much more concerning.  They should have lost to Western Michigan, winning 13-12 as 27.5-point favorites only after the refs somehow put one second back on the clock so they got a 2nd attempt at a hail mary, which they converted.

The Wolverines then went on to beat Oklahoma 17-10.  That's an Oklahoma team that nearly lost at home to New Mexico last week in a 14-6 win.  And Michigan was outgained by 26 yards by Oklahoma.  Then last week Michigan beat UTEP 52-17.  But that was a much closer game than the final score.  Michigan only led 17-14 at halftime and had to utilize a lot of energy in the 2H to pull away.  That's a UTEP team that also lost 51-0 to Oklahoma.

Bryce Underwood is one of the most overrated QB's in the country.  He is inaccurate as a passer and more known for what he can to with his legs.  But Iowa will be prepared for it behind one of the best defenses in the country and legendary coordinator Phil Parker.  The Hawkeyes are allowing 4.3 points per game, 176.7 yards per game and 3.2 per carry.

I actually think Iowa is better on both sides of the football.  They get some key players back on offense in RB Moulton and TE Vonnahme this week from injury.  They finally have a legit NFL-caliber receiver in Tony Diaz, who has 17 receptions for 201 yards this season.  They will test Michigan physically, and I anticipate Iowa to win the battle at the line is scrimmage on both sides of the football.  I also expect them to win this game outright in a game that could easily be decided by a FG either way.  Bet Iowa Saturday.

20* CFB Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Houston/Georgia Southern UNDER 57

Clay Helton is known as an offensive coach and that reputation has these Georgia Southern totals inflated dating back to last season.  Georgia Southern is now 7-2 UNDER in its last nine games overall finishing with 55 or fewer combined points in five of its last six.

Georgia Southern returned 6 starters on defense but zero starters on offense this season.  This will be Helton's best defense yet with seven of the top 13 tacklers back.  But this could be his worst offense.  Max Johnson never made it as a college QB and now he has found his way to Georgia Southern.  They have to replace a 1,000-yard rusher and a 1,000-yard receiver, plus QB JC French who transferred to Cincinnati, and all five offensive linemen.

Georgia Southern opened with a 31-0 shutout win over Charleston Southern.  The Eagles followed it up with an impressive 22-7 loss to Clemson, holding the Tigers to just 347 total yards.  And last week they held a high-powered Jacksonville State offense to just 302 total yards.  This defense is legit.

But Max Johnson and this Georgia Southern offense have been underwhelming.  Johnson is completing 65.5% of his passes with a 2-to-1 TD/INT ratio and averaging 6.0 yards per pass attempt.  He isn't going to make the big mistake, and his conservative nature plays right into our hands here being the perfect UNDER QB.

Willie Fritz has this Houston defense playing great football since joining the Big 12. The Cougars allowed 22.9 points per game in his first season in 2024 and 22.8 points per game last season.  Despite playing two great offenses already in Texas Tech and Oregon State, the Cougars are only allowing 18.0 points per game ad 316 yards per game.

Houston features a run-heavy offense and isn't in a hurry.  The Cougars are averaging 41 rush attempts per game compared to just 29 pass attempts.  They have been in dog fights with Texas Tech and Oregon State, too.  If they get a lead they will just try to run out the clock in the 2H which will aid us in cashing this UNDER 57 ticket.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Afternoon Line Mistake on Georgia Southern +18

Georgia Southern opened with a 31-0 shutout win over Charleston Southern.  The Eagles followed it up with an impressive 22-7 loss at Clemson as 19.5-point dogs, holding the Tigers to just 347 total yards.  And last week they held a high-powered Jacksonville State offense to just 302 total yards.  This defense is legit.

Off a misleading 31-27 loss to Jacksonville State in which they outgained the Gamecocks by 67 yards, the Eagles are flying under the radar.  They already showed they could play with Clemson, and I fully expect them to give Houston a run for its money at home today.  This will be one of the best atmospheres every in Statesboro with a Power 4 opponent coming to play on their field.

I think this is a flat spot for Houston.  The Cougars just lost 28-26 to Big 12 favorite Texas Tech on the road last week.  It was a big effort, but the Cougars missed a 2-point conversion to send it into OT.  It's the type of loss that can beat a team twice.  I don't think they will be able to get back up off the mat this week, especially in this massive sandwich spot with another Big 12 game against UCF on deck next week.  They would be more than happy just getting in and getting out with a win rather than running the score up.

I expect this to be a defensive grinder between two top-notch defenses and two underwhelming offenses.  It's also worth noting Houston head coach Willie Fritz is a former head coach at Georgia Southern.  He loves the program, and he won't want to run it up on them.  I think Fritz will be in for more of a fight than he bargained for today.  Bet Georgia Southern Saturday.

15* Utah/Iowa State Big 12 ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 48

The forecast will aid us in cashing this UNDER 48 ticket between Utah and Iowa State this afternoon.  It will be a sloppy field due to rain, and there will be sustained 15 MPH winds throughout that will affect the passing and kicking games for both teams.

The Cyclones hired Jimmy Rogers from Washington State.  The Cougars ranked 125th in tempo last season as Rogers played slow to try and give his team the best chance to win knowing he was under-manned.  The result was a 9-3 UNDER record in the regular season and 49 or fewer combined points in 10 of those 12 games.

Rogers will have to do the same thing at Iowa State to try and make the Cyclones competitive.  His Washington State team had an elite defense allowing 20.2 points per game.  He brought his defensive coordinator with him that served under him at Washington State and also South Dakota State prior in Jesse Bobbit.  He also added offensive coordinator Tyler Roehl, who ran a run-heavy scheme at North Dakota State.

The Cyclones lose all 22 starters from last season as everyone transferred with Matt Campbell to Penn State.  I like some of the talent Rogers brought in defensively and he will have a good defense this season and everywhere he goes.  But the offense is a problem outside QB Jaylen Raynor, the dual-threat Arkansas State transfer.  But it's not like the Cyclones are going to crush it offensively at all this season.

Iowa State played to my expectations in Week 1 in a 38-10 win over SE Missouri State.  The offense managed just 303 total yards including 108 rushing on 3.5 per carry against a FCS opponent.  The defense held them to 209 total yards, including 67 rushing and 1.5 per carry.  That game finished UNDER the 52.5-point total and shouldn't have even been that close given the stats.

Iowa State came back in Week 2 with a 16-13 loss at Iowa and just 29 combined points with a 42.5-point total for yet another UNDER.  The Cyclones were held to 255 total yards, but they showed their defensive chops by holding the Hawkeyes to 284 total yards and 4.8 per play.

I think last week's 55-7 win over Bowling Green has this total inflated.  Bowling Green may be the worst defense in the country after giving up 56 points to Nebraska the week prior.  Even this poor Iowa State offense had its way, while also being aided by a 100-yard kickoff return TD, a 66-yard punt return TD and several other plays that set up Iowa State with easy scoring opportunities.  That will not happen against Utah.

The Utes lost all five starting offensive linemen and several playmakers from last year's team.  But they have an elite defense as they always do, allowing just 8.0 points per game, 239.3 yards per game and 3.8 yards per play this season.  Their offensive numbers are inflated due to an easy strength of schedule with games against Idaho, Arkansas and Utah State.  Iowa State will offer much more resistance defensively than those three teams did.

Rogers has Iowa State playing slow just like he did at Washington State.  The Cyclones rank 134th out of 138 teams in tempo, snapping the ball every 32.1 seconds.  Utah is in no hurry either, ranking 82nd at 27.5 seconds between snaps.  Both offenses are run-heavy with questionable QB play in the passing game and lack of talent at receiver.  This will be the ultimate grinder and easily stay UNDER this 48-point total, especially with the forecast.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Sam Houston +34.5

The Texas Tech Red Raiders are one of the most overrated teams in the country after winning the down Big 12 last season.  They lost six NFL draft picks on defense and won't be nearly as good on that side of the ball.  They lost QB Behren Morton, their top two receivers and two starters along the O-Line.

Texas Tech brought in Cincinnati transfer Brendan Sorsby to replace Morton at QB, but he got in gambling trouble and is out.  That leaves Will Hammond, who while still decent is a big downgrade at QB.  That was evident in a lackluster 33-10 win over Abilene Christian as 45.5-point favorites in the opener, failing to cover by 22.5 points.

Keep in mind Abilene Christian lost to FCS bottom feeder Lamar 21-14 prior to the Texas Tech game, and then lost 26-7 to Stephen F. Austin the game after Texas Tech.  So that really puts into perspective how poor a 33-10 win over Abilene Christian really was.

More concerning was a 35-24 win at Oregon State two weeks ago as 25.5-point favorites.  The Red Raiders were life and death with the Beavers and needed to score the final 14 points to escape with victory.  Oregon State actually outgained Texas Tech 472 to 352 for the game, or by 120 total yards.  The Red Raiders were extremely fortunate to escape with the win.

Speaking of fortunate, they escaped with another 28-26 win as 7.5-point favorites over Houston in their Big 12 opener last week.  They allowed 458 yards to Houston and were outgained by 33 yards.  Now this is a sandwich spot for the Red Raiders, who have another Big 12 game on deck next week.  They won't be preparing at all for Sam Houston State and just want to get out of here with a win.  They aren't concerned with getting margin, and I don't expect them to win by 5 TD's or more as a result.

Sam Houston State looks like one of the most improved teams in college football.  The Bearkats are 1-2 SU but 3-0 ATS covering the spread by a combined 58 points in the three games.  They lost by 3 at Troy as 16.5-point dogs, by 6 to Tulsa as 12.5-point dogs and beat Nicholls State by 59 as 21-point favorites.  Those narrow losses to Troy and Tulsa look much better now when you consider Troy nearly upset Missouri on the road lost week, and Tulsa upset Oklahoma State which upset Oregon.  The Bearkats outgained both Troy and Tulsa, too.

Sam Houston QB Landyn Locke has impressive numbers, throwing for 973 yards with a 9-to-1 TD/INT ratio while averaging 9.0 per attempt.  But the improvement on defense is most noticeable.  The Bearkats are holding opponents to 15.7 points per game, 290.7 yards per game and 4.4 yards per play this season.  Locke will make enough plays to keep the Bearkats competitive, and the defense will hold this Texas Tech offense in check enough to stay within this inflated number in this clear flat spot for the Red Raiders.  Bet Sam Houston State Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Hawaii -2.5

I love the spot for Hawaii today.  The Rainbow Warriors are coming off a bye week to get healthy and put two weeks of focus into beating Wyoming.  After losses to Stanford and UNLV to open the season, they came back with a sense of urgency in a 29-19 win over New Mexico State as 7-point favorites.  That's a NMSU team that gave Florida State all they could handle on the road.  That urgency will be big this week as they step back into Mountain West play.

Wyoming is one of the worst teams in the country.  The Cowboys are 1-2 SU & 0-3 ATS this season.  They lost 35-13 at Colorado State in their opener, a rebuilding Rams team with a first-year head coach.  They struggle with FCS Northern Colorado in a 21-13 win as 23.5-point home favorites in Week 2.  That's a Northern Colorado team that was coming off consecutive losses to Weber State and South Dakota to open the season, and followed up the Wyoming loss with a OT win over lowly Northeastern State.

Last week, Wyoming lost 24-10 at Central Michigan in a physical game.  Central Michigan rushed 59 times for 339 yards on Wyoming.  That's a CMU team that barely beat Colgate 13-10 the previous week as 18.5-point favorites.  They also lost 38-7 to New Mexico in Week 1.  

The Cowboys are now beat up and tired defensively.  They won't have much left in the tank for Hawaii today, and they just aren't good enough to do anything about it.  Bet Hawaii Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Early ANNIHILATOR on Baylor -9.5

Baylor lost in OT after a hail mary on the final play of regulation by Shedeur Sanders and Colorado on the road in 2024.  Dave Aranda and his remaining players have not forgotten, and they want revenge at home this time around.  I fully expect them to win by double-digits to cover this 9.5-point spread.

Baylor has opened 2-1 SU & 2-1 ATS this season despite not having starting QB DJ Lagway, a Florida transfer, for the past two games.  They only lost 17-16 to Auburn as 6.5-point dogs on a neutral in the opener.  They outgained Auburn by 47 yards to show what they are capable of.  They came back with a 44-3 win over Prairie View A&M as 37.5-point favorites and a 36-19 win over LA Tech as 19.5-point home favorites.

The Bears will get a boost this week with the return of several key players, including QB Lagway.  WR Jadon Porter, S Devin Turner and LOT Logan Moore are also supposed to return from injuries this week.  The Bears are as close to full strength as they can be going into this game.

Colorado is a mess.  The 14-13 win at Georgia Tech in the opener doesn't look as good now after Georgia Tech went on to lose 45-24 at home to Tennessee.  After winning but failing to cover at home against Weber State, Colorado just got blasted 41-7 by Northwestern last week.  There is a ton of turmoil in that Colorado locker room right now.  

Deion Sanders has kicked off multiple players for conduct detrimental to the team.  This team just isn't that good as it is, and Sanders may be losing the locker room.  The Bears don't care and will look to kick them while they are down.  Bet Baylor Saturday.

20* SEC GAME OF THE MONTH on Florida -3

The No. 21 Florida Gators are favored over the No. 4 Ole Miss Rebels today for good reason.  The Gators are a legit SEC title contender this season that everyone is sleeping on.  The Rebels are overvalued after making college football playoff semifinals last season and beating LSU last week.

And that's the key here.  This is a massive letdown spot for Ole Miss off one of the biggest wins in program history over former head coach Lane Kiffin and the Tigers.  After such an emotional 32-24 win, the Rebels will be flat as a pancake this week.  They can afford a loss now after important, narrow wins over Louisville and LSU to start the season.

Florida is 3-0 SU & 2-1 ATS this season with a 66-21 win over FAU as 25.5-point favorites, a 52-3 win over Campbell as 50.5-point favorites and an impressive 44-39 win at Auburn as 2.5-point favorites.  Keep in mind Florida had a 475-220 edge in total yards over Auburn last week midway through the 4th quarter before Auburn padded its stats in garbage time with two late TD's in the final 6 minutes.  Florida really dominated that game.

Florida offensive coordinator Buster Faulkner is one of the best in the country and he is proving it.  Coming over from Georgia Tech and bringing QB Aaron Philo with him, Faulkner has the Gators scoring 54.0 points per game, averaging 544.3 yards per game and 8.0 yards per play.  The playmakers are elite for Philo at receiver, and they may have the best RB in the country in Jaden Baugh, who has rushed for 458 yards and 8 TD thus far.

No question Trinidad Chambliss and this Ole Miss offense are great as well.  But this offense took a hit with an injury to one of the best RB's in the country in Kewan Lacy against LSU.  Lacy is not expected to play today.  This Ole Miss defense is clearly vulnerable too after allowing 38 points and 469 yards to Louisville in the opener.  They only outgained Charlotte by 98 yards, and Charlotte is one of the worst teams in the country.

Florida head coach Jon Sumrall is 15-4-1 ATS in his last 20 games as a single-digit favorite.  Sumrall comes over from Tulane after taking the Green Wave to the college football playoff last year.  Tulane played Ole Miss twice last season, once in the regular season and once in the playoffs, losing both.  You can bet Sumrall wants his revenge here with elite players in the SEC that can get the job done for him.  This will be the 3rd time he has prepped for Ole Miss in the last year, so Sumrall and the Gators will have the preparation advantage.

Gainesville is back.  It's going to be a hostile atmosphere for this Top 25 matchup, and home-field advantage is worth a lot more than is being factored into this line for the Gators.  This will be the first true road game for Ole Miss and I don't expect it to go well for them.  They will be flat as a pancake today off the LSU win.  Bet Florida Saturday.