Jack Jones

Jack's Free Pick Tuesday: Philadelphia Phillies -101

The Philadelphia Phillies are one of the hottest teams in baseball.  They have gone 27-11 in their last 38 games overall.  Getting ace Zack Wheeler as an underdog to the Toronto Blue Jays tonight is tremendous value.

Wheeler looks all the way back from injury.  He is 5-1 with a 2.31 ERA and 0.83 WHIP in eight starts this season, allowing just 13 earned runs in 50 1/3 innings.  He has owned the Blue Jays, allowing just 3 earned runs in 20 innings in his last three starts against them for a 1.35 ERA.

Dylan Cease will be making his first start back from injury tonight and will likely be on a pitch count.  He allowed 7 earned runs and 4 homers in 9 2/3 innings in his last two starts.  Cease is 0-2 with a 6.75 ERA in two career starts against Philadelphia, allowing 9 earned runs and 3 homers in 12 innings.  Bet the Phillies Tuesday.

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15* Brewers/A's MLB Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 13

The A's are playing this series at Las Vegas Ballpark which is the hitter-friendly home of the A's Triple-A affiliate Aviators.  In game 1, the Brewers won 15-14 in 12 innings in a game that featured 11 home runs and 34 hits combined.  It was tied 10-10 going into extras which would have sailed over this 13-run total.

There were 12 combined runs after 3 innings after the A's knocked out Kyle Harrison, who was having a tremendous season before having to pitch in this ball park.  These stadium sits at nearly 3,000 feet of elevation, and it's hot with the wind almost always blowing out.  That will be the case again tonight with temps in the 90's and 10-15 MPH winds blowing out to center.

Robert Gasser will be the next victim for the Brewers.  He is 0-2 with a 4.73 ERA and 1.43 WHIP in three starts this season, allowing 7 earned runs and 19 base runners in 13 2/3 innings.  The Brewers used 6 bullpen arms last night so they are taxed and depleted.

This is where J.T. Ginn's impressive season comes to an end tonight, too.  He is 3-3 with a 2.74 ERA in 14 starts this season and 2-1 with a 3.96 ERA and 1.56 WHIP in six home starts at hitter-friendly Sutter Health Park, which is actually much less hitter-friendly than Las Vegas Ballpark.  The A's also used 6 different relievers last night so they are taxed and depleted as well.

The Brewers are 8-3 OVER in their last 11 games overall.  They are raking right now scoring 7 runs or more in seven of their last eight games overall while averaging 9.5 runs per game during this stretch.  The A's are 8-3 OVER in their last 11 games overall finishing with 13 or more combined runs in four of their last eight contests.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* AL GAME OF THE WEEK on Texas Rangers -120

The Rangers have two of their best hitters back healthy in Corey Seager and Wyatt Langford.  They have scored at least 6 runs in five of their last nine games overall. This offensive surge has led to a 7-2 run in their last nine games for their best stretch of the season.

Nathan Eovaldi has really improved after a slow start to the season.  He has allowed 2 earned runs or fewer in six of his last 10 starts.  He has a 4.10 ERA in 12 starts this season and a 3.88 ERA in eight road starts.  Eovaldi has allowed just 4 earned runs in 12 innings in winning each of his last two starts against Kansas City.

Stephen Kolek is one of the biggest regression candidates in baseball.  The soft tosser has just 27 K's in 38 innings this season.  He has not enjoyed facing the Rangers, allowing 12 runs, 10 earned, and 3 homers in 10 1/3 innings in his last two starts against them for a 8.71 ERA.

The Royals are dealing with some key injuries to Bobby Witt, Salvador Perez and Jac Gaglione.  All three missed time in the series against Minnesota over the weekend.  The Rangers also have a big advantage with their bullpen which has posted a 3.16 ERA this season compared to a 5.00 ERA for the Royals.  Bet the Rangers Tuesday.

20* AL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Rangers/Royals OVER 9

The forecast will aid us in cashing this OVER 9 ticket between the Rangers and Royals tonight.  Temps will be in the 80's with 13-15 MPH winds blowing out to left-center in Kansas City.  They moved the outfield walls in to make Kauffman Stadium more hitter-friendly this season as well.

The Rangers have two of their best hitters back healthy in Corey Seager and Wyatt Langford.  They have scored at least 6 runs in five of their last nine games overall while going 5-3-1 OVER during this stretch.  The Royals have scored at least 5 runs in four of their last seven games, and 3 runs or more in nine consecutive games.

Nathan Eovaldi is 5-6 with a 4.10 ERA in 12 starts this season allowing 14 homers in 74 2/3 innings as giving up the long ball has been an issue for him.  He has allowed 9 earned runs and 3 homers in 13 innings in his last two starts.  He has also allowed 10 earned runs in 17 innings in his last three starts against the Royals.

Stephen Kolek is one of the biggest regression candidates in baseball.  The soft tosser has just 27 K's in 38 innings this season.  He has not enjoyed facing the Rangers, allowing 12 runs, 10 earned, and 3 homers in 10 1/3 innings in his last two starts against them for a 8.71 ERA.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* MLB Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Mariners/Orioles OVER 8.5

The forecast will aid us in cashing this OVER 8.5 ticket between the Mariners and Orioles tonight.  Temps will be approaching 80 with 10-15 MPH winds blowing out to left field in Baltimore.  These teams combined for 9 runs in Game 1 yesterday, and it should result in 9 or more combined runs again in Game 2 tonight.

The Orioles are 7-3 OVER in their last 10 games overall finishing with 9 or more combined runs in 9 of those 10 games.  They have scored 4 runs or more in eight of those 10 games as their offense has really picked up.  The Mariners are 5-3 OVER in their last eight road games finishing with 9 or more combined runs in six of those eight games.  They have scored 4 runs or more in seven of those eight games.

Logan Gilbert is a fly ball pitcher for the Mariners allowing 13 homers in 13 starts this season.  That's bad news for him here given the forecast and all the power hitters the Orioles have.  Gilbert has allowed 6 earned runs and 2 homers in 11 2/3 innings in his last two starts against Baltimore.

Trevor Rogers has been a dumpster fire all season.  He is 3-6 with a 6.29 ERA and 1.51 WHIP in 11 starts this season, allowing 38 earned runs in 54 1/3 innings.  He is backed by a bad Baltimore bullpen with a 4.70 ERA this season.  It's a big reason the Orioles are allowing 5.2 runs per game this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* NL PLAY OF THE DAY on Cardinals/Mets OVER 7.5

The forecast will aid us in cashing this OVER 7.5 ticket between the Cardinals and Mets tonight.  Temps will be in the 70's with 13-16 MPH winds blowing out to left-center at Citi Field.

The Cardinals are 3-1-1 OVER in their last five games overall finishing with 8 or more combined runs in all five games.  The Mets are 13-8-2 OVER in their last 23 games overall finishing with 8 or more combined runs in 14 of those 23 games.

Dustin May is 3-6 with a 4.59 ERA in 12 starts this season allowing 34 earned runs in 66 2/3 innings.  May has posted a 5.40 ERA in two career starts against the Mets, allowing 7 earned runs in 11 2/3 innings.

Freddy Peralta is 4-4 with a 3.38 ERA and 1.31 WHIP in 13 starts this season for the Mets, including 2-2 with a 3.77 ERA and 1.40 WHIP in eight home starts.  He is 3-6 with a 4.54 ERA in 17 career starts against the Cardinals, including 3-3 with a 5.29 ERA in 10 home starts.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.