Jack Jones

Jack's Free Pick Wednesday: Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (-125)

The Dodgers still have a lot to play for here down the stretch despite already basically locking up the NL West.  They are 1.5 games behind the Brewers for the #1 seed and 3 games ahead of the Braves for the #2 seed.  At the very least, they want to finish Top 2 to get that bye.

The Dodgers have clearly been playing with some urgency during their current 6-game winning streak.  They look to sweep the Reds, who are 69-76 on the season are completely out of contention.  But the biggest reason I'm on the Dodgers today is their massive advantage on the mound tonight.

Yoshinobu Yamamoto has been one of the most reliable starters in baseball.  He is 12-8 with a 2.67 ERA and 0.90 WHIP in 25 starts this season with 19 of those being quality starts.  Yamamoto has owned the Reds, allowing one earned run in 13 2/3 innings with 18 K's in his last two starts against them for a 0.66 ERA.

Rhett Lowder is one of the worst starters in baseball.  He is 6-9 with a 5.43 ERA and 1.49 WHIP in 22 starts and three relief appearances this season.  Lowder has been very poor on the road, going 4-7 with a 6.79 ERA and 1.68 WHIP in 13 starts away from home while allowing 44 earned runs in 58 1/3 innings.

The Dodgers are 9-1 in their last 10 meetings with the Reds with seven wins by 2 runs or more.  Bet the Dodgers on the Run Line Wednesday.

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Jack Jones has SIX Top-10 MLB Finishes (#4 2024, #8 2023, #5 2019, #6 2014, #6 2010, #4 2009) to his credit! He finished as the No. 8 Ranked MLB Capper in 2023 with his $1,000/game players up $21,110 in 2023! He backed it up by finishing as the No. 4 Ranked MLB Capper in 2024 with $1,000/game players up $34,230!

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15* DBacks/Royals Interleague ANNIHILATOR on OVER 8.5

The Royals have really been raking since getting much healthier.  They have scored at least 3 runs in 19 of their last 22 games overall.  The Diamondbacks have a healthy, potent lineup right now.  After two extra innings games to open this series, both bullpens are taxed, and that will play a big factor tonight.

Zac Gallen will be making his first start since July 7th as he returns from injury and will be on a pitch count.  Gallen has been a disaster this season, going 3-9 with a 6.61 ERA and 1.57 WHIP in 19 starts, including 0-5 with a 7.36 ERA and 1.68 WHIP in 10 road starts.

Daniel Lynch will serve as an opener for the Royals.  He is 4-5 with a 3.51 ERA in six starts and 46 relief appearances this season.  Lynch allowed 5 earned runs in 5 innings to of a 9-2 loss to the Blue Jays in his last start.  The OVER is 3-0 in Lynch's last three starts with 11, 11 and 18 combined runs.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* Interleague TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Rockies/Yankees OVER 9

The forecast will aid us in cashing this OVER 9 ticket between the Rockies and Yankees tonight.  Temps will be in the 80's with 10-15 MPH winds blowing out to left at hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium.  With Aaron Judge back for the Yankees now, they get back to having one of the most potent lineups in baseball.

The Yankees should crush Tomoyuki Sugano, who is 12-8 with a 5.33 ERA in 25 starts this season.  Sugano has actually been worse away from Coors Field, going 5-3 with a 5.74 ERA and 1.40 WHIP in 12 road starts, allowing 40 earned runs and 16 homers in 62 2/3 innings.  Sugano is 1-2 with a 6.19 ERA and 1.75 WHIP in four career starts against the Yankees, allowing 11 earned runs and 6 homers in 16 innings.

I also expect this healthy, underrated Colorado lineup to have success against the Yankees.  Will Warren will be making his first start since August 30th and will be on a pitch count returning from injury.  Warren is 0-1 with a 9.00 ERA and 1.71 WHIP in two career starts against the Rockies, allowing 7 earned runs in 7 innings.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* MLB Wednesday Early ANNIHILATOR on Blue Jays/A's OVER 9.5

Sutter Health Park is one of the most hitter-friendly parks in baseball.  The A's have gone 41-27-3 OVER in all home games this season.  Most of their totals are set at 10 or higher at home, and this total of 9.5 is too short, especially with temps in the 90's at game time and approaching 100 degrees throughout.

The A's have gone 8-2 OVER in their last 10 games overall.  The A's have scored at least 5 runs in six of their last eight games overall despite playing six of those games on the road.  The Blue Jays have come to life at the plate here down the stretch scoring at least 4 runs in nine of their last 11 games.

Both teams will be making this a bullpen game.  The Blue Jays will open with Braydon Fisher, who rarely goes more than one inning when he has been used as an opener.  The A's go with Brady Basso, who rarely goes more than 2 innings when used as an opener.  Basso has a 5.60 ERA at home this season allowing 11 earned runs in 17 2/3 innings.  The A's have a terrible bullpen as a whole with a 5.41 ERA on the season and a 6.67 ERA at home.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* MLB Wednesday Night Line Mistake on Angels/Red Sox OVER 9

The forecast will aid us in cashing this OVER 9 ticket between the Angels and Red Sox tonight.  Temps will be in the 70's with 10-15 MPH winds blowing out to left-center at hitter-friendly Fenway Park.  Expect a ton of balls off and over the green monster in this one.

The Red Sox are capable of covering this total on their own against Ryan Johnson, who is 3-8 with a 5.17 ERA in 15 starts and three relief appearances this season.  Johnson is 1-5 with a 5.72 ERA in eight road starts, allowing 25 earned runs and 7 homers in 39 1/3 innings.  Johnson allowed 5 runs and 2 homers in 4 innings of a 7-5 loss to the Red Sox on July 5th in his lone career start against them.

Jake Bennett is fortunate to have a 3.34 ERA in 17 starts for the Red Sox this season.  He has just 81 K's in 99 2/3 innings and is more of a contact pitcher.  He does have a 3.52 ERA in his eight home starts.  Bennett has allowed at least 3 earned runs in seven of his last eight starts as regression after a great start has hit him hard.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* MLB Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Guardians/Orioles OVER 8.5

The forecast will aid us in cashing this OVER 8.5 ticket between the Guardians and Orioles tonight.  Temps will be in the 80's with 10-15 MPH winds blowing out to left.  The ball should be flying out tonight.

The OVER is 4-1 in the last five meetings between the Guardians and Orioles this season with 10 or more combined runs in four of the five.  That includes 10 and 14 runs in the first two games of this series.  It will be more of the same tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on Rangers/Mariners OVER 7.5

The Mariners are going through their best offensive stretch of the season.  They are 7-1 OVER in their last eight games overall with 8 or more combined runs in seven of those eight games, and 11 or more in six of them.  They have scored 4 runs or more in six of their last eight games.

The Rangers have really been raking since the All-Star Break.  Texas is 11-2-2 OVER in its last 15 games overall finishing with 8 or more combined runs in 13 of those 15 games.  They have scored 6 runs or more in seven of their last nine games overall.  This total of 7.5 is too short for a game involving the Rangers and Mariners right now.

Cody Bradford is 0-4 with a 4.45 ERA and 1.58 WHIP in six starts for the Rangers this season with just 16 K's in 30 1/3 innings.  Kade Anderson is 0-1 with a 5.40 ERA and 1.47 WHIP in three starts for the Mariners this season with just 11 K's in 15 innings.  Both starters and bullpens will be overwhelmed again tonight.

The OVER is 5-0 in the last five meetings between the Rangers and Mariners with 8 or more combined runs in all five.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* Patriots/Seahawks NFL Season Opener on UNDER 44.5

Familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games.  This will be a Super Bowl rematch.  The Patriots and Seahawks had two weeks to prepare for each other leading into the Super Bowl.  Now they have had an entire offseason to prepare for each other leading into the season opener.  They know each other inside and out, and that will clearly favor defense over offense.

Not to mention both teams will be rusty offensively in Week 1.  That tends to be the case across the league.  In fact, UNDERS have gone 42-22 in Week 1 over the last four seasons.  This makes sense with the preseason being shorter now, which has the defenses ahead of the offenses.  Few starters even play in the preseason, and when they do it isn't for much time.

The Seahawks beat the Patriots 29-13 in the Super Bowl.  But that was a very misleading final in terms of points scored.  It was 12-0 Seahawks going into the 4th quarter before these teams exploded for 30 points in the final period.  The Seahawks scored on a pick 6, and the Patriots tacked on two touchdowns in garbage time after trailing 19-0.  Yet it still finished with just 42 combined points.

The Patriots have an elite defense that they rode to the Super Bowl.  They allowed just 17.9 points per game and 284.9 yards per game last season.  Drake Maye wasn't very impressive in the playoffs and was exposed.  He does have AJ Brown now, but they lose Stefon Diggs who was big for them last season.  And I don't expect Maye to have great chemistry with Brown in Week 1.  They will be without their most explosive RB in TreVeyon Henderson for this one.

The Seahawks also rode their defense to the Super Bowl.  They allowed just 16.9 points per game and 295.1 yards per game last season.  They did lose some players in the secondary, but the front seven is loaded.  I don't think Maye and this offense are ones to be able to expose their secondary.

No question Sam Darnold had a tremendous season and is also a key reason the Seahawks won the Super Bowl.  But Darnold won't have offensive coordinator Klink Kubiak, who left to become the head coach of the Raiders.  There will be some growing pains with new coordinator Brian Fleury.  They also lost their MVP of the playoffs in RB Kenneth Walker, who got a new fat contract with the Chiefs.  

That leaves rookie Jadarian Price as their lead back with Zach Charbonnet out with an injury.  And this Seattle offense is limited with not much talent at receiver outside of Jaxon Smith-Njigba.  You can bet the Patriots are going to game plan to stop him, and they have one of the best corners in the league in Christian Gonzalez to do just that.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.