Jack Jones

Jack's Free Pick Wednesday: Los Angeles Clippers +9.5

The Los Angeles Clippers lost 102-95 at Houston last night.  The Clippers shot just 40.9% from the field and 26.7% from 3-point range while the Rockets shot 45.6% from the field and 50% from 3-point range in that game.  Yet the Clippers still only lost by 7.

I have to think the Clippers are due some positive shooting regression in the rematch that will allow them to stay within this 9.5-point spread again.  I also like the fact that the Clippers pulled their starters in the 4th quarter to save them for tonight.  Nobody played more than 31 minutes for Los Angeles last night.

The Rockets went 'all in' last night playing Durant, Smith Jr. and Thompson all at least 37 minutes and Sengun 34 minutes.  They went with an 8-man rotation, and that short rotation makes it more difficult for them to handle these back-to-back situations.

The Clippers are 12-5 SU & 11-6 ATS in their last 17 games overall and battling back to get into playoff contention.  The Rockets are 12-9 SU but just 5-16 ATS in their last 21 games overall as they have consistently been overvalued.  They have just one win by double-digits in their last 21 games.  Asking them to win this rematch by 10-plus points to beat us is asking too much.  Bet the Clippers Wednesday.

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15* AAC PLAY OF THE DAY on USF/Wichita State UNDER 160

This is a rematch from January 18th when Wichita State won 86-85 (OT) at South Florida.  That game was tied 77-77 at the end of regulation for just 154 combined points.  And both teams shot the lights out with Wichita State going 12-of-23 (52.2%) from 3-point range while USF shot 12-of-28 (42.9%) from 3.  No chance both teams shoot that well again in the rematch.

Wichita State will control the tempo playing at home tonight.  The Shockers rank 254rd in adjusted tempo, 109th in adjusted offense and 81st in adjusted defense.  They hang their hats on defense much more than offense.  Both teams are poor shooting teams as well.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on New Orleans Pelicans PK

The New Orleans Pelicans are the healthiest they have been all season right now and it's the reason they are playing their best basketball of the season.  They have gone 5-4 SU & 7-2 ATS in their last nine games overall.  They crushed the Kings by 26 after upsetting the Timberwolves as 8.5-point road underdogs in their last two games coming in.

The Miami Heat are far from healthy.  They will be without their top two scorers in Norman Powell (23.0 PPG) and Tyler Herro ( 21.9 PPG) tonight.  Andrew Wiggins (15.9 PPG) is questionable, while Pelle Larsson (10.2 PPG) is out.  The Pelicans are the better team in their current state tonight.  The Heat will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days, while New Orleans will be playing just its 2nd game in 5 days.  Bet the Pelicans Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday UPSET SHOCKER on Toronto Raptors ML +107

Both Jalen Duren (17.7 PPG, 10.4 RPG) and Isaiah Steward (10.0 PPG, 5.1 RPG, 1.7 BPG) have been suspended for their roles in the brawl with the Charlotte Hornets.  That's going to leave the Pistons extremely short-handed inside.  The Raptors are a lengthy team that can take advantage of it and get buckets at the rim at will.

The Raptors are 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall beating Chicago by 16, Indiana by 18, Utah by 7 and losing by just 2 to the Timberwolves.  They have had the last two days off, and they have the All-Star Break on deck.  They will be fresh and 'all in' to get a win tonight over the Pistons.

Detroit is in a letdown spot off that emotional win over the Hornets that ended in a brawl.  The Pistons have locked up the best record in the East by 5.5 games no matter the result tonight.  They could be looking ahead to the break.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet the Raptors on the Money Line Wednesday.

20* NBA Wednesday Late-Night BAILOUT on Grizzlies/Nuggets OVER 238

The Denver Nuggets have been a dead nuts OVER team all season going 34-20 OVER in all games.  They are especially an OVER team since getting Nikola Jokic back healthy.  They also have Christian Braun and Cam Johnson back healthy as well.

The Nuggets are 7-1 OVER in their last eight games overall.  The only game that went under was against the Cavaliers last time out where both teams shot poorly yet still combined for 234 points.  They went for 245 points with the Pistons, 261 with the Knicks and 256 with the Bulls in their three previous games.

The Grizzlies are 6-0 OVER in their last six games overall.  They play fast with or without Ja Morant, and they've actually been a better OVER team without him.  They traded away their best defender in Jaren Jackson Jr. as well.  They have gone for 245 or more combined points in four of their last six games.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* Knicks/76ers ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Philadelphia -2

The spot really favors the Philadelphia 76ers tonight.  They had yesterday off and are the healthier team tonight.  The Knicks will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back off an OT loss to the Indiana Pacers last night.

The Knicks will also be playing their 5th game in 7 days tonight.  They will be playing their 10th game in 15 days as well.  Brunson played 42 minutes, Bridges 42, Hart 41 and Towns 32 last night.  They will be without OG Anunoby, and I wouldn't be surprised if any of those guys that played last night sit tonight as well.  Bet the 76ers Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Phoenix Suns +8

This line has been adjusted too much for the Suns playing the 2nd of a back-to-back.  They jumped out to a 30-point lead on the Mavericks yesterday and coasted to the finish line.  They also had two days off prior to that game, so there's a good chance they'll still be pretty fresh and have everyone available that played last night.

The Thunder cannot be 8-point road favorites over the Suns without two of their top four scorers in MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (31.8 PPG) and Ajay Mitchell (14.1 PPG).  They are good enough to win this game without them, but to ask them to go on the road and beat the pesky Suns by 9-plus points to beat us is asking too much.  Bet the Suns Wednesday.

15* AAC Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on UAB/Tulsa OVER 161

Tulsa is a dead nuts OVER team going 15-7 OVER in all games this season including 7-2 OVER in home games.  The Golden Hurricane rank 24th in adjusted offense but just 166th in adjusted defense this season.  They are scoring 86.9 points per game overall and 93.9 points per game at home and still haven't played a OT game yet.

UAB will gladly run and gun with Tulsa tonight.  The Blazers rank 72nd in adjusted tempo and 137th in adjusted defense.  They lost 99-77 at home to Tulsa in their first meeting this season for 176 combined points.  We have a lot of room to spare here in the rematch with this total set at 161.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* Big East TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Providence/Seton Hall OVER 149.5

Providence is a dead nuts OVER team going 18-6 OVER in all games this season including 6-1 OVER in road games.  Only three times all season have Providence and its opponents combined for less than 150 points, so this total of 149.5 is very short for a game involving the Fryers.

That's especially the case now that leading scorer Jason Edwards (17.6 PPG) is back healthy for the Fryers.  He had 25 points on only 13 shot attempts in a 90-72 win over DePaul last time out.

Seton Hall has played a run of slow, defensive-minded teams and that's the reason the Pirates are 6-1 under in their last seven games overall.  They went OVER the total in their lone game against an up-tempo team in Xavier with a 86-68 win for 154 combined points.  They will be able to let their hair down against Providence here.  

The Fryers rank 17th in adjusted tempo, 20th in adjusted offense and just 198th in adjusted defense.  They force their opponents into shootouts home or away.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Blazers/Timberwolves OVER 234

The Minnesota Timberwolves are playing a lot faster now and are a dead nuts OVER team as a result.  They have gone 5-2 OVER in their last seven games overall with 234 or more combined points in six of those seven games.  This total of 234 is pretty short for a game involving the Timberwolves right now.

The Blazers have gotten healthy with Avidja, Holiday, Grant and Henderson all back and playing now.  They are a dead nuts OVER team in their current state going 5-0 OVER in their last five games overall.  They have gone for 237 or more combined points in all five games, so this total of 234 is pretty short for a game involving Portland right now as well.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.