Jack Jones

Jack's Free Pick Saturday: Chicago Cubs -127

The Chicago Cubs are raking right now scoring 5 runs or more in six of their last eight games overall.  That includes a combined 24 runs in their last two games after a 16-2 win over the Blue Jays in Game 1 of this series Friday.

The Cubs should stay hot at the plate against one of the worst starters in baseball in Patrick Corbin.  He is 2-3 with a 4.57 ERA and 1.48 WHIP in 13 starts for the Blue Jays this season, which are actually better numbers than he has posted in five of his previous six seasons in the big leagues.  Corbin has a 6.05 ERA in eight career starts at Wrigley Field allowing 28 earned runs and 8 homers in 41 2/3 innings.

Colin Rea has been at his best at home this season going 2-1 with a 3.03 ERA in six starts while allowing 11 earned runs in 32 2/3 innings.  He is 1-1 with a 2.77 ERA and 0.92 WHIP in two career starts against the Blue Jays, allowing just 4 earned runs in 13 innings.

Vlad Guerrero Jr. left yesterday's game with a back injury and his status is in question for Game 2 as a result.  This Toronto lineup just doesn't strike fear into anyone this season.  They have scored 4 runs or fewer in eight of their last 10 games and are averaging just 4.1 runs per game this season.  Bet the Cubs Saturday.

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20* MLB Saturday Late-Night BAILOUT on Twins/Diamondbacks OVER 9

The Minnesota Twins are a dead nuts OVER team.  They have gone 49-27-1 OVER in all games this season scoring 4.8 runs per game and allowing 5.1 runs per game.  They have gone 17-5-1 OVER in their last 23 games overall finishing with 9 or more combined runs in 16 of their last 20 games, and 10 or more in 15 of them.

The Arizona Diamondbacks are getting their bats going again scoring a total of 17 runs on 24 hits in their last two games coming in.  That includes their 9-5 win over the Twins in Game 1 of this series as they went for 13 hits.  It should be another slug fest tonight given the poor quality of these two starting pitchers.

Taj Bradley is 5-3 with a 4.14 ERA in 13 starts this season, including 4-2 with a 4.39 ERA and 1.44 WHIP in eight road starts.  Bradley comes in really struggling allowing a whopping 17 earned runs and 6 homers in 19 2/3 innings in his last four starts.  He has allowed 10 earned runs and 5 homers in 10 innings in his last two starts against Arizona as well.  Bradley is backed by a terrible Minnesota bullpen with a 5.18 ERA this season.

Zac Gallen is 3-5 with a 5.71 ERA and 1.55 WHIP in 15 starts for the Diamondbacks this season.  He comes in struggling as well allowing 16 earned runs and 6 homers in 21 1/3 innings in his last four starts.  

The OVER is 6-1 in the last seven meetings between Arizona and Minnesota with 9 or more combined runs in six of those seven, and 10 or more in five of them.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* MLB Saturday Night Line Mistake on Orioles/Dodgers OVER 8

The forecast will aid us in cashing this OVER 8 ticket between the Orioles and Dodgers tonight.  Temps will be approaching 70 with double-digit winds blowing out to center.  It was a similar forecast last night when these teams combined fro 11 runs and 19 hits, and it will be more of the same tonight.

The Dodgers have one of the best offenses in baseball scoring 5.3 runs per game this season.  They have scored at least 4 runs in 10 of their last 12 games overall while going 9-3 OVER in those 12 games with 8 or more combined runs in 10 of them, and 9 or more combined runs in nine of them.  This total of 8 is too short for a game involving the Dodgers right now.

The Orioles are a dead nuts OVER team going 45-29-3 OVER in all games this season while scoring 4.6 runs per game and allowing 5.1 runs per game.  They have gone 13-6-1 OVER in their last 20 games overall finishing with 8 or more combined runs in 16 of those 20 games, and 9 or more in 15 of them.  This total of 8 is too short for a game involving the Orioles as well.

The Dodgers are capable of covering this total on their own against Trevor Rogers and this awful Baltimore bullpen.  Rogers is 3-7 with a 5.86 ERA in 13 starts this season allowing 43 earned runs in 66 innings with just 48 K's.  He is 1-2 with a 6.64 ERA in four road starts.  He is backed by a Baltimore bullpen with a 4.60 ERA on the season and a 5.55 ERA on the road.

No question Yoshinobu Yamamoto is one of the best starters in baseball, which is why this total has been set so short at 8 runs.  But he may be fatigued and in for a letdown after losing his no-hitter against the White Sox in the 9th inning last time out and throwing 109 pitches.  I think the Orioles have the lineup that can get to him today.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on Angels/A's OVER 9.5

The forecast will aid us in cashing this OVER 9.5 ticket between the Angels and A's tonight.  Temps will be in the 80's at game time with double-digit winds blowing out to center at hitter-friendly Sutter Health Park tonight.  The ball should be flying out for another A's home game.

The A's and their opponents have combined for at least 10 runs in 15 of their last 21 games overall.  The A's have scored at least 4 runs in 12 consecutive games averaging 7.4 runs per game during this stretch.  The A's have a very tired bullpen after playing in so many high-scoring games of late and playing 18 of the last 19 days.  The A's have a 4.91 ERA as a bullpen including a 6.35 ERA at home.

Both teams have tired bullpens after the A's came back to win 12-11 in extra innings last night.  The Angels will be playing for a 9th consecutive day as well.  Their bullpen hasn't been much better with a 4.74 ERA on the season and a 4.86 ERA on the road.  So both teams should continue piling on the runs in the later innings.

That's why I'm not concerned about these two starting pitchers having decent numbers.  Walbert Urena is a major regression candidate and hasn't been very good on the road.  He is 0-4 with a 3.86 ERA and 1.71 WHIP on the road this season allowing 17 runs, 10 earned, and 40 base runners in 23 1/3 innings.  JT Ginn is 4-1 with a 3.93 ERA and 1.58 WHIP at home, allowing 16 earned runs and 58 base runners in 36 2/3 innings.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* MLB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Nationals/Rays OVER 8

The Washington Nationals are a dead nuts OVER team.  They are 46-27-3 OVER in all games this season scoring 5.4 runs per game and allowing 5.2 runs per game.  The OVER is 7-2 in their last nine games overall with 8 or more combined runs in eight games, and 9 or more in seven of them.  This total of 8 is too short for a game involving the Nationals.

The Tampa Bay Rays are scoring 4.4 runs per game and allowing 4.3 runs per game this season.  Both teams have terrible bullpens.  The Nationals have a 4.73 ERA this season while the Rays have a 4.58 ERA.  The Rays will make this a bullpen game starting with Ian Seymour, who has a 4.93 ERA this season.

Cade Cavalli is 4-4 with a 3.98 ERA and 1.39 WHIP in 15 starts for the Nationals this season.  He has been at his worst on the road, going 2-2 with a 4.28 ERA and 1.46 WHIP in seven starts away from home.  Both teams will get their bat going in Game 2 today.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.