Jack Jones

Jack's Free Pick Tuesday: Royals/Blue Jays OVER 8.5

The Kansas City Royals are going through their best offensive stretch of the season during their current 8-game winning streak.  They have scored at least 3 runs in all eight wins while averaging 6.7 runs per game in their last seven.

The Blue Jays have gone 5-2 OVER in their last seven games overall and have scored at least 3 runs in eight of their last nine games.  Both surging offenses should have their way with two of the worst starters in the American League tonight.

Seth Lugo is 5-7 with a 4.71 ERA in 26 starts this season.  He is 1-3 with a 5.63 ERA in 12 road starts, allowing 40 earned runs in 64 innings. Lugo has allowed 18 earned runs in 21 2/3 innings in his last four starts overall for a 7.48 ERA during this stretch.

Max Scherzer is clearly washed, going 1-6 with a 7.40 ERA and 1.51 WHIP in 11 starts this season.  He is 1-5 with an 8.33 ERA and 1.56 WHIP in seven home starts, allowing 25 earned runs and 9 homers in 27 innings.  Scherzer just allowed 7 earned runs in 4 innings to the Rays in his last start.  He also allowed 7 earned runs in 2/3 of an inning in a 20-1 loss to the Royals in his last start against them.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

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15* MLB Tuesday Late-Night BAILOUT on Phillies/Mariners OVER 7.5

The Phillies have been an offensive juggernaut since trading for Luis Arraez.  The Phillies have scored 4 runs or more in 21 of their last 24 games overall, including 6 runs or more in eight of their last 10.  The OVER is 8-1 in their last nine games overall with 10 or more combined runs in eight of those nine.  The Phillies and their opponents have gone for 8 or more combined runs in 16 of their last 18 games overall, so this total of 7.5 is too short for a game involving Philadelphia right now.

The Seattle Mariners are a perfect 7-0 OVER in their last seven games overall finishing with 9 or more combined runs in all seven.  They have gone for 11 or more combined runs in nine of their last 12 games overall, so this total of 7.5 is too short for a game involving the Mariners right now as well.

Aaron Nola is one of the most overrated starters in baseball.  He is 5-9 with a 5.12 ERA and 1.42 WHIP in 26 starts this season, allowing 78 earned runs and 31 homers in 137 innings.  Nola allowed 5 runs, 4 earned, and 10 base runners in 5 1/3 innings in his last start against the Mariners.

George Kirby is also having one of his worst seasons thus far, going 8-10 with a 4.18 ERA and 1.35 WHIP in 24 starts for the Mariners.  Kirby has posted a 7.12 ERA in his last five starts while allowing 19 earned runs and 6 homers in 24 innings.

The OVER is 6-1 in the last seven meetings between the Phillies and Mariners with 10 or more combined runs in six of those seven.  They have gone for at least 8 combined runs in eight of their last 10 meetings overall.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* Interleague TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Orioles/Cardinals OVER 8

The Cardinals have been much more potent offensively since calling up Joshua Baez.  They have scored at least 4 runs in 11 of their last 16 games.  The OVER is 11-4-1 in those 16 games with 9 or more combined runs in 11 of them.  The Orioles have scored at least 5 runs in eight of their last 14 games.  Both surging offenses should have their way with these two suspect starting pitchers tonight.

Chris Bassitt is 4-4 with a 5.08 ERA and 1.62 WHIP in 12 starts and two relief appearances this season.  Bassitt has been atrocious on the road, going 1-3 with a 7.28 ERA and 1.96 WHIP in seven road starts whlie allowing 24 earned runs and 58 base runners in 29 2/3 innings.  Bassitt has allowed a whopping 17 earned runs and 7 homers in 16 2/3 innings in his last three starts against the Cardinals for a 9.18 ERA.

Matthew Liberatore is 5-11 with a 5.04 ERA and 1.44 WHIP in 25 starts for the Cardinals this season.  He has been at his worst at home, going 3-4 with a 5.16 ERA and 1.58 WHIP in 12 home starts.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* AL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Twins/A's OVER 10

Sutter Health Park in Sacramento rivals Coors Field as the most hitter-friendly parks in baseball.  That has played out this season with the A's going 38-23-3 OVER in all home games.  They have gone 8-2 OVER in their last 10 home games with 11 or more combined runs in eight of them.

The Minnesota Twins are a dead nuts OVER team going 74-56-2 OVER in all games this season.  They are scoring 4.6 runs per game and allowing 5.0 runs per game.  Temps will be in the 90's at game time with light winds blowing out to aid us in cashing this OVER 10 ticket.

Taj Bradley is 9-5 with a 3.90 ERA in 25 starts this season, including 6-3 with a 4.26 ERA and 1.41 WHIP in 14 road starts.  He is backed by a terrible Minnesota bullpen with a 4.88 ERA and 1.52 WHIP this season.

Gage Jump is 2-5 with a 6.02 ERA and 1.66 WHIP in nine home starts this season, allowing 29 earned runs in 43 1/3 innings.  Jump is backed by an even worse A's bullpen with a 5.72 ERA on the season, and a 7.14 ERA at home.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* MLB Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Rangers/White Sox OVER 7

The Rangers and White Sox combined for 13 runs in Game 1 yesterday.  This total for Game 2 has been set way too short at 7 runs.  Both starters are getting too much respect, and both lineups should have their way again.

Jacob DeGrom has been atrocious on the road this season, going 3-6 with a 5.01 ERA and 1.37 WHIP in 12 road starts while allowing 33 earned runs and 11 homers in 59 1/3 innings.  DeGrom allowed 5 earned runs in 4 2/3 innings of a 10-3 loss to the White Sox in his lone start against them on July 20th earlier this season.

Anthony Kay is 9-6 with a 4.03 ERA and 1.33 WHIP in 24 starts and two relief appearances for the White Sox this season.  Kay allowed 2 earned runs and 7 base runners in 5 innings against the Rangers on July 22nd.  

The OVER is 6-3 in the last nine meetings between the White Sox and Rangers with 9 or more combined runs in six of those nine meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* NL PLAY OF THE DAY on Cubs/Diamondbacks OVER 8

The Chicago Cubs are 10-5-1 OVER in their last 16 games overall finishing with 9 or more combined runs in 11 of those 16 games, including 10 or more combined runs nine times.  They have one of the best offenses in baseball scoring 5.2 runs per game.  The Arizona Diamondbacks are 5-2 OVER in their last seven games overall finishing with 9 or more combined runs in five of those seven, and 12 or more four times.

Clay Holmes is working his way back from injury for the Cubs and will be on a pitch count again.  Holmes did face the Diamondbacks back in May and allowed 2 earned runs and 7 base runners in 5 2/3 innings.

Brandon Pffadt is also getting too much respect from the books with this 8-run total.  He is 7-1 with a 3.57 ERA in 13 starts and 10 relief appearances this season.  Pfaadt allowed 5 earned runs and 3 homers in 5 2/3 innings to the Red Sox in his last start.  He also allowed 3 earned runs and one homer in 6 innings in his last start against the Cubs.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.