Jack Jones

Jack's Free Pick Tuesday: New York Yankees -1.5 (-120)

The New York Yankees have a big advantage on the mound tonight over the Kansas City Royals that should have them winning this game by multiple runs.  They also have the obvious advantage at the plate scoring 4.8 runs per game compared to 3.9 runs per game for the light-hitting Royals, who have gone just 3-11 in their last 14 games overall.

Cam Schlittler is 6-2 with a 1.50 ERA and 0.86 WHIP in 11 starts this season, including 5-1 with a 1.04 ERA and 0.62 WHIP in seven road starts.  One of those starts came against Kansas City on April 17th when he fired 6 innings without allowing an earned run in a 4-2 victory.

Bailey Falter is 0-1 with a 9.82 ERA and 2.86 WHIP in four games this season.  He has allowed 8 earned runs and 21 base runners in 7 1/3 innings.  Falter is 0-1 with a 14.14 ERA in two career starts against the Yankees, getting blasted for 11 earned runs and 3 homers in 7 innings.  Bet the Yankees on the Run Line Tuesday.

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15* MLB Tuesday Late-Night BAILOUT on Mariners/A's OVER 9.5

The forecast will aid us in cashing this OVER 9.5 ticket between the Mariners and A's tonight.  There will be light winds blowing out to center at Sutter Health Park, which has proven to be one of the most hitter-friendly parks in baseball since the A's moved their for the past two seasons.  These teams combined for 11 runs in Game 1 yesterday and it should be another slug fest tonight.

Emerson Hancock is 1-1 with a 3.65 ERA in four road starts this season allowing 5 homers in 24 2/3 innings.  Hancock is 0-0 with a 4.41 ERA in three career starts against the A's allowing 5 homers in 16 1/3 innings.

Luis Severino went 2-9 with a 6.01 ERA in 15 starts at Sutter Health Park last season.  He is 1-2 with a 5.55 ERA in four home starts this season, allowing 15 earned runs and 6 homers in 24 1/3 innings.  Severino is 2-1 with a 4.83 ERA and 1.52 WHIP in four career home starts against the Mariners, allowing 12 earned runs in 22 1/3 innings.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* MLB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Minnesota Twins -111

The Minnesota Twins have a big advantage on the mound over the Chicago White Sox tonight and should be bigger favorites as a result.  I fully expect them to bounce back from their 3-1 loss to the White Sox in Game 1 of this series Monday.

Joe Ryan is 3-3 with a 3.02 ERA and 0.97 WHIP in 11 starts this season.  He has allowed just 19 earned runs and 3 homers in 56 2/3 innings with 61 K's.  He has allowed 2 earned runs or fewer in eight of his last nine starts.  Ryan is 3-0 with a 3.41 ERA and 1.05 WHIP in six career starts against the White Sox.

Sean Burke is 2-3 with a 4.08 ERA in 10 games for the White Sox this season.  He is 0-2 with a 4.73 ERA in six home games, allowing 17 earned runs and 4 homers in 32 1/3 innings with just 25 K's.  Burke allowed 6 earned runs and 2 homers in 4 1/3 innings of a 6-1 loss to the Twins in his lone career start against them.  The White Sox have a 4.75 ERA as a bullpen this season as well.  Bet the Twins Tuesday.

15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on Detroit Tigers -127

It's time to 'buy low' on the Detroit Tigers.  They are riding a 7-game losing streak and will be highly motivated for a victory today.  They have had some rest thanks to a couple rain outs in Baltimore and will be playing just their 2nd game in 4 days.  

This has given them time to regroup, and now they have a chance to get back on track against one of the worst teams in baseball in the Los Angels Angels.  The Angels have been even worse than the Tigers going just 9-24 in their last 33 games overall while scoring 3 runs or fewer in 22 of those 33 games.

Keider Montero has been solid for the Tigers this season at 2-3 with a 3.83 ERA and 1.01 WHIP In nine starts, including 2-2 with a 3.48 ERA and 0.98 WHIP in six home starts.  He is backed by a solid Detroit bullpen with a 3.98 ERA on the season and a 2.89 ERA at home.

I'll gladly fade one of the worst starters in baseball in Jack Kochanowicz, who is 2-3 with a 4.55 ERA and 1.34 WHIP in 10 starts this season, including 1-1 with a 5.53 ERA and 1.45 WHIP in five road starts.  Kochanowicz has allowed 15 earned runs in 16 innings in his last three starts coming in.  He also hates facing the Tigers, allowing 11 earned runs in 8 innings in his last two starts against them.  He is backed by one of the worst bullpens in the baseball with the Angels having a 5.36 ERA overall and a 5.89 ERA on the road.  Bet the Tigers Tuesday.

15* MLB Tuesday Night BLOWOUT on Cincinnati Reds -123

The Mets are one of the most overrated teams in baseball at 22-32 this season.  They are dealing with so many injuries to their lineup that they just can't be very productive right now.  They are without Lindor, Polanco, Robert and Alvarez and Juan Soto is dealing with an illness.  They have scored a total of 4 runs in their last four games.

The Reds have a massive advantage on the mound tonight and should be bigger favorites as a result.  Chase Burns is 6-1 with a 1.83 ERA and 0.95 WHIP In 10 starts this season, including 2-0 with a 1.46 ERA and 0.77 WHIP in four road starts.  He has allowed a total of 2 earned runs in 25 innings in his last four starts coming in.

David Peterson is one of the worst starters in baseball.  He is 3-4 with a 5.03 ERA and 1.55 WHIP in 11 games this season, including 1-2 with a 6.33 ERA and 1.78 WHIP in five home sgames while allowing 15 earned runs in 21 1/3 innings.  Peterson allowed 4 earned runs in 5 1/3 innings in his last start against the Reds, falling to 1-1 with a 4.88 ERA and 1.63 WHIP in five career starts against them.  

Cincinnati is 4-0 in its last four games overall scoring a total of 27 runs in those four wins.  The Reds have scored at least 4 runs in 11 of their last 12 games overall with one of the best offenses in baseball.  Bet the Reds Tuesday.

20* Spurs/Thunder Game 5 No-Brainer on San Antonio +4.5

The Spurs made a great adjustment in Game 4 that I think will pay dividends the rest of this series.  They decided to stop double-teaming Shai and giving up wide open 3-pointers which led to an NBA playoff record 76 bench points from the Thunder in Game 3.

The Spurs only lost the bench scoring 34-30 in Game 4, and most of those points for the Thunder came in the 4th quarter when they were sitting starters with the game already decided in a 103-82 victory by the Spurs.  They are willing to give up 30 points to Shai and not allow open 3-pointers.  I think that's the perfect strategy as Shai is going to still have to make tough shots to beat them.

While the Spurs are fully healthy, the Thunder are going to be without Ajay Mitchell again tonight, and Jalen Williams is questionable after missing the past two games with a hamstring injury.  Mitchell was WIlliams' replacement in the starting lineup and had been a huge part of them not missing Williams so much.  But without both now the Spurs are in real trouble.

Chet Holmgren is one of the most overrated players in the NBA and he just folds against Victor Wembenyama.  He has been borderline unplayable.  Isaiah Hartenstein tries hard, but he's no match for Wembenyama either.  And that is the biggest mismatch in this series and will continue to be heavily in San Antonio's favor as the series goes on.

The fact of the matter is the Spurs have had the Thunder's number this season and I expect it to continue in Game 5.  The Spurs are 6-3 SU & 5-3-1 ATS in their nine meetings with the Thunder this season.  And the adjustment to stop giving the Thunder wide open 3-pointers is the exact move they had to make.  Bet the Spurs in Game 5 Tuesday.

20* NL West TOTAL OF THE MONTH on DBacks/Giants OVER 8

The forecast will aid us in cashing this OVER 8 ticket between the Diamondbacks and Giants tonight.  There will be 20-25 MPH winds blowing out to center in San Francisco tonight.

The Diamondbacks and their opponents have gone for 8 or more combined runs in 10 of their last 12 games overall.  They are scoring 4.6 runs per game and allowing 4.4 runs per game this season.

The Giants are 8-1 OVER in their last nine games overall with 8 or more combined runs in all nine games, and 9 or more in seven of them.  They just went for exactly 13 combined runs with the White Sox in all three games last series at home.  They are allowing 4.6 runs per game this season.

Eduardo Rodriquez is 1-1 with a 3.46 ERA and 1.58 WHIP in five road starts this season.  Rodriquez is 1-1 with a 6.30 ERA and 1.55 WHP in his last four starts against the Giants, allowing 14 earned runs and 4 homers in 20 innings.

Arizona is capable of covering this total on its own against Tyler Mahle, who is 1-6 with a 6.10 ERA and 1.57 WHIP in 10 starts this season.  Mahle has allowed 35 earned runs and 10 homers in 51 2/3 innings.  One of those starts came against Arizona in his last start on May 20th where he allowed 6 earned runs in 5 innings.  He will get rocked again less than a week later.

The Diamondbacks and Giants have combined for 8 or more runs in 17 of their last 20 meetings overall.  This total of 8 is too short tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* Interleague TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Nationals/Guardians OVER 7.5

The Nationals are a dead nuts OVER team.  They have gone 34-18-3 OVER in all games this season.  They are scoring 5.4 runs per game and allowing 5.5 runs per game.  They have gone for 9 or more combined runs in 10 of their last 14 games overall, including 15 runs or more in six of them.  This total of 7.5 is too short for a game involving the Nationals right now.

Cade Cavalli is 2-3 with a 3.86 ERA and 1.44 WHIP in 11 starts this season, including 1-1 with a 4.37 ERA and 1.50 WHIP in five road starts.  He is backed by one of the worst bullpens in baseball with the Nationals having a 4.71 ERA this season.

Joe Cantillo is 4-1 with a 3.21 ERA and 1.32 WHIP in 11 starts this season.  Walks have been an issue for him with 27 in 56 innings.  He has largely gotten away with it this season, but the Nationals will punish him after putting up 10 runs and 6 homers on the Guardians yesterday.

The OVER is 8-2 in the last nine meetings between the Nationals and Guardians with 10 or more combined runs in seven of those.  The OVER is 6-2 in Cleveland's last eight home games with 9 or more combined runs in six of those.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.