Jack Jones

Jack's Free Pick Wednesday: Blue Jays/Red Sox OVER 9.5

Temps will be in the 70's with light winds blowing out to left at Fenway Park tonight.  That will aid us in cashing this OVER 9.5 ticket as both offenses should have their way with these two overmatched starting pitchers.

Max Scherzer is 1-4 with a 10.23 ERA and 1.73 WHIP in six starts for the Blue Jays this season.  He has allowed 25 earned runs and 9 homers in 22 innings.  Scherzer has allowed 9 earned runs and 5 homers in 11 innings in his last two starts against Boston as well.

Rookie Jake Bennett will make his 4th career start for the Red Sox.  He is 1-2 with a 5.28 ERA and 1.50 WHIP in three starts this season, allowing 9 earned runs and 23 base runners in 15 1/3 innings with just 8 K's.

The Blue Jays are 11-4-1 OVER in their last 16 games overall going for 10 or more combined runs in 10 of those 16 games.  The Red Sox are 4-1 OVER in their last five games overall with 9 or more combined runs in four of those five, including 10 or more three times.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

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15* MLB Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Rays/Dodgers OVER 7

The forecast will aid us in cashing this OVER 7 ticket between the Rays and Dodgers tonight.  Temps will be in the 70's with 10 MPH winds blowing out to center.  The Dodgers are scoring 5.3 runs per game with one of the best offenses in baseball, and they are capable of covering this total on their own.

Shane McClanahan has allowed at least 4 earned runs in three of his last five starts.  That includes 8 earned runs and 19 base runners in 9 innings in his last two starts.  I expect him to get rocked again tonight.

Shohei Ohtani has elite numbers this season but he cannot keep this pace up.  He regressed in his last start allowing 4 runs in a 9-8 loss to the Pirates that saw 17 combined runs.  

The Dodgers are 7-3 OVER in their last 10 games overall going for 10 or more combined runs in seven of those 10 games.  The total was 9.5 in Game 1 and 8.5 in Game 2.  Now the books have lowered this total down to 7 for Game 3, which is too big of an adjustment.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* MLB Wednesday Afternoon Line Mistake on Padres/Cardinals OVER 10

The forecast in St. Louis today is one of the most hitter-friendly forecasts I've seen all season.  Temps will be in the 90's with 20-25 MPH sustained winds blowing out to left-center.  It's safe to say runs will be plentiful, especially with the gas cans that are expected to pitch today.

The Padres will go with an opener before giving the bulk of the innings to Griffin Canning.  He has been a dumpster fire this season, going 0-5 with a 7.17 ERA and 1.57 WHIP in eight starts this season while allowing 30 earned runs and 8 homers in 37 2/3 innings.

Kyle Leahy is 5-3 with a 4.64 ERA and 1.59 WHIP in 13 starts for the Cardinals this season.  He has allowed 33 earned runs and 102 base runners in 64 innings.

The Padres are 6-3 OVER in their last nine games overall.  The Cardinals are 6-5-2 OVER in their last 13 games with 11 or more combined runs in six of those.  They are raking right now scoring 4 runs or more in 11 of those 13 games.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* NL PLAY OF THE DAY on Marlins/Phillies OVER 9

The forecast will aid us in cashing this OVER 9 ticket between the Marlins and Phillies this afternoon.  Temps will be in the 80's with 10 MPH winds blowing out to center in Philadelphia.  That is favorable for both offenses up against these two suspect starting pitchers.

Sandy Alcantara is one of the most overrated starters in baseball.  He went 11-12 with a 5.36 ERA in 31 starts last season.  He is 6-4 with a 4.35 ERA in 15 starts this season.  Alcantara has really struggled away from Miami going 3-2 with a 5.24 ERA in seven road starts while allowing 26 earned runs and 9 homers in 44 2/3 innings.  Alcantara is 0-3 with a 8.31 ERA in his last three starts against Philadelphia, allowing 12 earned runs and 4 homers in 13 innings.

Andrew Painter is by far the weakest link in this Philadelphia rotation.  He is 1-7 with a 6.43 ERA and 1.57 WHIP in 11 starts and two relief appearances this season.  He has allowed 45 earned runs and 12 homers in 63 innings.  Painter allowed 3 earned runs and 10 base runners in 5 innings in his lone start against Miami this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* MLB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Pirates/A's OVER 10

The forecast will aid us in cashing this OVER 10 ticket between the Pirates and A's tonight.  Temps will be in the 80's at game time with double-digit winds blowing out to center at hitter-friendly Sutter Health Park tonight.  The ball should be flying out again for an A's home game.

The Pirates have one of the most improved offenses in baseball scoring 5.0 runs per game.  The Pirates are 16-4 OVER in their last 20 games overall going for 11 or more combined runs in 13 of those 20 games.  The A's and their opponents have combined for at least 10 runs in 13 of their last 18 games overall.  The A's have scored at least 4 runs in nine consecutive games averaging 7.6 runs per game during this stretch.

The A's have a very tired bullpen after playing six straight games in Las Vegas at another hitter-friendly park.  The Pirates have a 4.44 ERA as a bullpen this season.  The A's have a 4.81 ERA as a bullpen including a 6.30 ERA at home.

Regression has hit Braxton Ashcraft hard in his last two starts allowing 8 earned runs in 10 innings.  Aaron Civale has been a dumpster fired all season going 5-2 with a 4.20 ERA and 1.48 WHIP in 11 starts allowing 12 homers.  He is 2-2 with a 5.47 ERA and 1.78 WHIP in five home starts, allowing 15 earned runs and 6 homers in 24 2/3 innings.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* MLB Wednesday Early ANNIHILATOR on Royals/Nationals OVER 9.5

The Washington Nationals are a dead nuts OVER team.  They are 46-25-3 OVER in all games this season scoring 5.5 runs per game and allowing 5.2 runs per game.  The Royals are starting to rake scoring at least 4 runs in seven of their last nine games overall, and 3 runs or more in 16 of their last 17 games overall.

Luinder Avila is 1-3 with a 6.19 ERA and 1.81 WHIP for the Royals this season allowing 22 earned runs and 58 base runners in 32 innings.  Avila has made four starts allowing 15 earned runs and 4 homers in 13 2/3 innings.  He is backed by a poor Kansas City bullpen with a 4.87 ERA and 1.52 WHIP this season.

Zack Littell is 6-5 with a 5.32 ERA in 14 games this season and 4-3 with a 6.19 ERA in eight home games.  He has allowed 16 homers on the season, including 25 earned runs and 8 homers in 36 1/3 innings at home.  He is also backed by a bad Washington bullpen with a 4.68 ERA on the season and a 5.02 ERA at home.

The OVER is 6-0 in the last six meetings between the Royals and Nationals with 10 or more combined runs in all six.  Temps will be in the 80's with light winds blowing out to center in Washington today to aid us in cashing this OVER 9.5 ticket.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.