Jack Jones

Jack's Free Pick Monday: Tampa Bay Rays +153

The Tampa Bay Rays get to stay in Los Angeles to take on the Dodgers after a 3-game series with the Angels over the weekend.  The Dodgers return home from a 6-game road trip that concluded with losing two out of three to the White Sox.  This is a much worse spot for the Dodgers.

I give the Rays a big advantage on the mound tonight behind Nick Martinez, who is 6-2 with a 2.43 ERA in 13 starts this season, including 2-1 with a 1.75 ERA in six road starts.  The Rays also crush left-handed pitching hitting .286 in their 20 games against left-handed starters this season.

Lefty Eric Lauer has been a dumpster fire this season.  He is 2-5 with a 5.47 ERA in nine starts and two relief appearances, allowing a whopping 15 homers in 52 2/3 innings.  Lauer has never beaten the Rays, going 0-3 with a 7.72 ERA and 1.81 WHIP in five career starts against them while allowing 18 earned runs, 7 homers and 38 base runners in 21 innings.  Bet the Rays Monday.

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20* MLB Monday Late-Night BAILOUT on Rays/Dodgers OVER 9

The Dodgers are scoring 5.4 runs per game with one of the best offenses in baseball.  The Rays are scoring 4.5 runs per game with an improved offense this season.  The Rays are hitting .286 in their 20 games against left-handed starters this season to really crush southpaws.

Lefty Eric Lauer has been a dumpster fire this season.  He is 2-5 with a 5.47 ERA in nine starts and two relief appearances, allowing a whopping 15 homers in 52 2/3 innings.  Lauer has never beaten the Rays, going 0-3 with a 7.72 ERA and 1.81 WHIP in five career starts against them while allowing 18 earned runs, 7 homers and 38 base runners in 21 innings.

Nick Martinez is one of the biggest regression candidates in baseball.  He has an expected ERA of nearly 2 runs higher than his actual ERA.  He is a contact pitcher with just 44 K's in 77 2/3 innings.  Regression has hit in his last two starts allowing 9 earned runs and 2 homers in 11 innings, and it will continue tonight against the powerful Dodgers.

The Dodgers are 7-1 OVER in their last eight games overall going for 10 or more combined runs in seven of those eight games.  Martinez allowed 4 earned runs and 9 base runners in 5 1/3 innings in his last road start against the Dodgers.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* Pirates/A's Interleague ANNIHILATOR on OVER 10.5

The forecast will aid us in cashing this OVER 10.5 ticket between the Pirates and A's tonight.  Temps will be in the 90's at game time with 11 MPH winds blowing out to center at hitter-friendly Sutter Health Park tonight.  The ball should be flying out again for an A's home game.

The Pirates have one of the most improved offenses in baseball scoring 5.0 runs per game.  The Pirates are 14-4 OVER in their last 18 games overall going for 11 or more combined runs in 11 of those 18 games.

The A's and their opponents have combined for at least 10 runs in 11 of their last 16 games overall.  They have a very tired bullpen after playing six straight games in Las Vegas at another hitter-friendly park.

JT Ginn is 3-1 with a 4.70 ERA and 1.63 WHIP in seven home games this season.  Jared Jones is 1-0 with a 4.73 ERA in three starts this season as he works his way back from injury on a pitch count.  The Pirates have a 4.53 ERA as a bullpen this season.  The A's have a 4.80 ERA as a bullpen including a 6.35 ERA at home.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* MLB Monday Night BLOWOUT on Washington Nationals -123

The Washington Nationals are one of the most improved teams in baseball with a 37-35 record this season.  They are scoring 5.4 runs per game with one of the best offenses in baseball.  They take on the Royals, who are 29-43 this season with one of the worst offenses in baseball.  They are scoring just 4.0 runs per game and are the worst hitting team in the majors on the road.

Andrew Alvarez is 1-0 with a 3.70 ERA this season while allowing 10 earned runs and 2 homers in 24 1/3 innings with 26 K's.  He will get the bulk of the innings before giving way to a rested Washington bullpen after Mile Mikolas ate up 7 innings for them yesterday.

Mitch Spence is 11-16 with a 4.91 ERA and 1.42 WHIP with just 195 K's in 240 innings in his career in the big leagues.  He allowed 6 earned runs in 4 innings in his lone start this season.  He is backed by a poor Kansas City bullpen with a 4.85 ERA this season.  Washington has the advantage on the mound and at the plate tonight and should be a bigger favorite as a result.  Bet the Nationals Monday.

15* MLB Monday Total DOMINATOR on Royals/Nationals OVER 9

The Washington Nationals are a dead nuts OVER team.  They are 43-25-3 OVER in all games this season scoring 5.4 runs per game and allowing 5.3 runs per game.  The Royals are starting to rake scoring at least 4 runs in six of their last seven games overall, and 3 runs or more in 14 of their last 15 games overall.

Mitch Spence is 11-16 with a 4.91 ERA and 1.42 WHIP with just 195 K's in 240 innings in his career in the big leagues.  He allowed 6 earned runs in 4 innings in his lone start this season.  He is backed by a poor Kansas City bullpen with a 4.85 ERA this season.

Andrew Alvarez will get the start and will likely only go 3-5 innings for the Nationals.  That will expose their bad bullpen, which has posted a 4.66 ERA on the season and a 4.99 ERA at home.

The OVER is 4-0 in the last four meetings between the Royals and Nationals with 11 or more combined runs in all four.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* NL TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Rockies/Cubs OVER 9

The forecast will aid us in cashing this OVER 9 ticket between the Cubs and Rockies at hitter-friendly Wrigley Field tonight.  Temps will be in the 70's with 10 MPH winds blowing out to center.  That's bad news for two starting pitchers who are struggling mightily coming into this one.

Michael Lorenzen is 2-8 with a 7.54 ERA and 1.89 WHIP in 14 starts this season while allowing 55 earned runs in 65 2/3 innings.  Lorenzen is 0-1 with a 7.11 ERA in four career starts against the Cubs, allowing 15 earned runs in 19 innings.

Shota Imanaga has posted a 8.78 ERA in his last five starts.  He has allowed a whopping 26 earned runs and 12 homers in 26 2/3 innings in those five starts.  These starters just squared off against each other last week in Colorado, and that will give the offenses the advantage getting to see them again for the 2nd time in a week.

The Rockies have a depleted bullpen after playing in so many high-scoring games of late.  They have a 5.21 ERA on the season.  The Rockies and their opponents have combined for at least 10 runs in 13 of their last 15 games overall.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.