Jack Jones

Jack's Free Pick Tuesday: Philadelphia Phillies -138

Ace Zack Wheeler is back healthy and proving that he is still the same dominant starter he has always been.  Wheeler is 1-0 with a 3.12 ERA and 0.98 WHIP in three starts this season, allowing 6 earned runs and 17 base runners in 17 1/3 innings with 18 K's.  He has thrown over 90 pitches in each of his last two starts and should be at full strength for his 4th start of the season tonight.

The Phillies are one of the healthiest teams in baseball right now and showing what they are capable of when that's the case.  They have gone 10-3 in their last 13 games overall while scoring at least 6 runs in nine of those 13 games.  Wheeler has allowed just 3 earned runs and 11 base runners in 13 innings with 14 K's in his last two starts against Boston.

The Red Sox are dealing with some key injuries this season and have opened 17-23.  They have scored 4 runs or fewer in nine of their last 11 games, and 3 runs or fewer seven of them.  They won't have much success tonight against Wheeler and this Philadelphia bullpen, either.

Boston has decided to go with an opener to try and help out Bryan Bello, who will pitch the bulk of the innings tonight.  Bello is 2-4 with a 7.44 ERA and 1.93 WHIP this season, allowing 27 earned runs, 8 homers and 63 base runners in 32 2/3 innings.  Bet the Phillies Tuesday.

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15* MLB Tuesday Night Line Mistake on Nationals/Reds OVER 10

Two of the worst starters in baseball square off tonight in one of the most hitter-friendly parks in baseball at Great American Ball Park.  The result should be one of the highest-scoring games of the night.

Miles Mikolas is 1-3 with a 7.44 ERA and 1.53 WHIP in eight games this season allowing 27 earned runs and 9 homers in 32 2/3 innings.  Brady Singer is 2-2 with a 5.63 ERA and 1.64 WHIP in eight starts this season, allowing 24 earned runs and 8 homers in 38 1/3 innings.

Mikolas is 6-9 with a 5.39 ERA in 21 career starts against the Reds, including 1-2 with a 6.75 ERA in his last three starts against them.  Singer is 0-1 with an 11.05 ERA in two career starts against the Nationals, allowing 9 earned runs in 7 1/3 innings.

These are also two poor bullpens with the Nationals posting a 4.94 ERA this season and the Reds a 4.46 ERA.  The Nationals are 25-14-2 OVER in all games this season, scoring 5.3 runs per game and allowing 5.6 runs per game.  The Reds are 24-16-1 OVER in all games this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* Interleague Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Marlins/Twins OVER 9

The forecast will aid us in cashing this OVER 9 ticket between the Twins and Marlins tonight.  There will be 20 MPH winds blowing out to right field.  These are two right-handed starters, and both lineups will counter with as many lefties as possible to take advantage of the wind blowing out to right.

Eury Perez is 2-4 with a 5.01 ERA and 1.43 WHIP in eight starts this season.  That includes 0-2 with a 7.43 ERA and 1.95 WHIP in three road starts, allowing 11 earned runs, 3 homers and 26 base runners in 13 1/3 innings.

Bailey Ober is 3-2 with a 4.19 ERA in eight starts this season allowing 20 earned runs and 5 homers in 43 innings.  Ober allowed 4 earned runs and 10 base runners in 5 innings in his last start against the Marlins.  He also allowed 5 earned runs in 5 innings in his last start, which came against the Nationals.

The Twins are 26-14-1 OVER in all games this season scoring 4.7 runs per game and allowing 5.0 runs per game.  The Marlins are 23-16-2 OVER in all games this season.  The Twins have a terrible bullpen with a 5.54 ERA, while the Marlins have big home/road splits as a bullpen with a 5.26 ERA on the road.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* Interleague TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Cardinals/A's OVER 9.5

Sutter Health Park in Sacramento is one of the most hitter-friendly parks in the majors.  The forecast will aid us in cashing this OVER 9.5 ticket between the Cardinals and A's tonight.  Temps will be in the 80's with 10 MPH winds blowing out to left-center at Sutter Health Park.

Andre Pallante is 3-3 with a 4.34 ERA and 1.37 WHIP in seven starts this season.  He has allowed 18 earned runs and 5 homers in 37 1/3 innings.  He has allowed at least one homer in five consecutive starts with a 5.27 ERA during this stretch.

Jeffrey Springs is 3-2 with a 3.89 ERA in eight starts this season.  But Springs is 2-1 with a 4.87 ERA in four home starts, allowing 11 earned runs and 5 homers in 20 1/3 innings.  Springs has allowed 6 earned runs and 2 homers in 11 innings in his last two starts against the Cardinals.  

These are two of the worst bullpens in baseball as well.  The Cardinals have a 4.65 ERA while the A's have a 4.67 ERA as a whole.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* AL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Royals/White Sox OVER 9

The forecast will aid us in cashing this OVER 9 ticket between the Royals and White Sox tonight.  Temps will be in the 70's with 20 MPH winds blowing out to left field.  Runs and home runs should be plentiful tonight with this forecast.

Stephen Kolek will be making just his 2nd start of the season for the Royals.  Kolek is 9-7 with a 4.03 ERA in 165 1/3 innings with just 119 K's in his career in the big leagues.  He is a contact pitcher, and he will get crushed by this power-hitting White Sox lineup tonight.

Erick Fedde is 0-4 with a 3.79 ERA in five starts and two relief appearances for the White Sox this season.  He has allowed 8 homers in 38 innings.  Fedde has allowed 5 earned runs and 2 homers in 9 2/3 innings in his last two starts against Kansas City.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* NL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Cubs/Braves OVER 8.5

Two of the best lineups in baseball square off in this series between the Cubs and Braves.  The Braves are scoring 5.6 runs per game while the Cubs are scoring 5.2 runs per game this season.  I think both starting pitchers will be in over their heads in Game 1 of this series tonight.

Colin Rea is 4-1 with a 4.03 ERA and 1.37 WHIP in five starts and three relief appearances for the Cubs this season.  He has posted a 5.60 ERA on the road, allowing 11 earned runs in 17 2/3 innings away from home.  Rea allowed 3 earned runs and 8 base runners in 4 innings in his last start against Atlanta.

Grant Holmes is 2-1 with a 4.34 ERA and 1.31 WHIP in seven starts for the Braves this season.  He is 1-1 with a 5.40 ERA and 1.47 WHIP in three home starts, allowing 9 earned runs and 3 homers in 15 innings.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* AL Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Yankees/Orioles OVER 8.5

The Baltimore Orioles are 14-6-1 OVER in their last 21 games overall finishing with 9 or more combined runs in 14 of them.  They are allowing 5.3 runs per game this season with one of the worst staffs in baseball.

The Yankees have one of the best lineups in baseball scoring 5.2 runs per game this season.  They should crush Trevor Rogers, who is 2-3 with a 4.75 ERA and 1.45 WHIP in six starts this season, allowing 16 earned runs in 30 1/3 innings.  Rogers allowed 6 earned runs and 3 homers in 3 innings of an 8-4 loss to the Yankees in his last start against them.

Will Warren is coming off his worst start of the season.  He allowed 6 earned runs, 2 homers and 10 base runners in 4 innings tot he Rangers.  Warren is 0-2 with a 5.20 ERA in two career road starts at Baltimore, allowing 5 earned runs, 2 homers and 14 base runners in 8 2/3 innings.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* Timberwolves/Spurs Game 5 ANNIHILATOR on San Antonio -9

The San Antonio Spurs are a perfect 10-0 SU & 10-0 ATS in their last 10 games following a loss this season.  They have been a very resilient team, and we saw that resiliency on display in Game 2 after an upset loss in Game 1.  They came back to crush the Timberwolves by 38 points at home in Game 2 and led by as many as 48 points.

Consider the Spurs were 11.5-point favorites in Game 1 and 10.5-point favorites in Game 2 at home.  They were 5.5-point favorites in Game 3 and 4 on the road.  Now they are only 9-point favorites for Game 5, which is too big of an adjustment toward Minnesota.

The Spurs probably were on their way to winning Game 4 before Victor Wembenyama was ejected after throwing an elbow to Naz Reid with 8:39 remaining in the 2nd quarter.  The Spurs didn't have their best player for nearly three quarters of that game.  With him back and the Spurs fully healthy, I expect them to a respond in a big way tonight.

In the two games the Spurs have lost in this series, they shot just 27.8% from 3 in Game 1 and 23.1% from 3 in Game 4.  They are due some positive shooting regression tonight as well.  They had a chance to win both of those games even though they shot so poorly from 3, which shows just how good of a team they are.  Wembenyama will be fresh tonight, and he'll make a statement here as his teammates follow suit.  Bet the Spurs Tuesday.