Jack Jones

Jack's Free Pick Saturday: Angels/Rays OVER 7

The Tampa Bay Rays have one of the best offenses in baseball.  They are scoring 4.7 runs per game this season.  The Los Angeles Angels are heating up at the plate scoring 5 runs or more in seven of their last 10 games overall.  These teams combined for 13 runs in Game 1, and it should be more of the same today.

The Rays are capable of covering this total on their own again like they did yesterday in scoring 8 runs.  Reid Detmers is 1-5 with a 4.71 ERA in 11 starts for the Angels this season, allowing 33 earned runs in 63 innings.  He is backed by one of the worst bullpens in baseball with the Angels having a 5.26 ERA.

No question Drew Rasmussen is having a solid season for the Rays at 4-1 with a 2.78 ERA in 10 starts.  But he is due some regression and won't finish the season with this good of numbers.  The Rays have a 4.43 ERA as a bullpen this season ranking in the bottom half of baseball.  

The OVER is 7-3-1 in the last 11 meetings between the Angels and Rays with 7 or more combined runs in nine of those 11 meetings, and 9 or more runs in eight of them.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

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20* MLB Saturday Late-Night BAILOUT on Diamondbacks/Mariners OVER 7

Both the Arizona Diamondbacks and Seattle Mariners are red hot at the plate right now and this total of 7 is too short as a result.  The Diamondbacks have scored 5 runs or more in nine of their last 12 games overall.  The Mariners have scored at total of 35 runs in their last five games for an average of 7.0 runs per game.  These teams combined for 13 runs and 26 hits in Game 1 yesterday, and it should be more of the same in Game 2 today.

Ryne Nelson is 2-3 with a 4.65 ERA in 11 starts for the Diamondbacks this season.  He has allowed 37 runs, 31 earned, and 11 homers in 60 innings.  He is backed by a poor Arizona bullpen with a 4.21 ERA this season.

Bryan Woo is 4-3 with a 3.82 ERA in 11 starts this season while allowing 27 earned runs in 63 2/3 innings.  Wood does not enjoy facing the Diamondbacks, going 0-1 with a 6.55 ERA in two career starts against them while allowing 8 earned runs and 2 homers in 11 innings.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on Yankees/A's OVER 9.5

Sutter Health Park has been one of the most hitter-friendly parks in baseball since the A's moved there last season.  And with temps approaching 80 and light winds blowing out to center tonight, it will be even more favorable conditions for hitters than normal.

The Yankees have one of the best offenses in baseball scoring 5.1 runs per game.  They should crush JT Ginn, who has really struggled at Sutter Health Park.  Ginn went 1-5 with a 6.85 ERA and 1.63 WHIP at home last season, allowing 36 earned runs and 12 homers in 47 1/3 innings.  He is 1-1 with a 5.21 ERA in five home starts this season.

Ryan Weathers is 2-2 with a 3.14 ERA in 10 starts this season while allowing 8 homers in 57 1/3 innings.  The A's can get to him tonight and this shaky New York bullpen.

The OVER is 6-0 in the last six meetings in Oakland with 10 or more combined runs in all six meetings.  That includes 10, 12, 14 and 18 combined runs in the four meetings at Sutter Health Park.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* MLB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Cubs/Cardinals OVER 8

The Cubs finally got their bats going in Pittsburgh last series.  They scored 10 runs in Game 2 and 7 runs in Game 3 off of Paul Skenes, who is one of the best starters in baseball.  They had 5 runs in a 6-5 loss to the Cardinals in Game 1 of this series as these teams combined for 20 hits.  It should be another slug fest tonight.

It's going to be 80 degrees with very light winds in St. Louis tonight so the ball should be flying out.  The Cardinals really profile as an OVER team scoring 4.4 runs per game and allowing 4.6 runs per game.  The Cubs are similar scoring 4.8 runs per game and allowing 4.5 runs per game.  This total of 8 is simply too short tonight.

Ben Brown won't go very deep into this game which will expose this Chicago bullpen.  Brown allowed a whopping 8 earned runs and 4 homers in 5 innings in his lone career start against the Cardinals, which also came in St. Louis.

Kyle Leahy is 5-3 with a 4.44 ERA and 1.58 WHIP in 10 starts for the Cardinals this season.  He has allowed 25 earned runs, 8 homers and 80 base runners in 50 2/3 innings.  St. Louis has a poor bullpen with a 4.33 ERA this season.  

The OVER is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings with 10 or more combined runs in seven of them.  The OVER is 15-6 in the last 21 meetings with 8 or more combined runs in 17 of those 21 meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* MLB Saturday Afternoon Line Mistake on Padres/Nationals OVER 7.5

The Washington Nationals are a dead nuts OVER team.  They have gone 36-19-3 OVER in all games this season while scoring 5.4 runs per game and allowing 5.5 runs per game.  This total of 7.5 is too short for a game involving the Nationals and it's adjusted down too much for the wind blowing in today.

The Padres have been much more potent offensively away from pitcher-friendly Petco Park this season.  They are capable of covering this total on their own against Foster Griffin and this awful Washington bullpen.  

Griffin is 6-2 with a 3.63 ERA in 11 starts this season while allowing 10 homers in 62 innings.  He has allowed a whopping 14 earned runs and 4 homers in 15 1/3 innings in his last three starts coming in.  The Nationals have a 4.63 ERA as a bullpen.

Michael King is 4-3 with a 2.76 ERA and 1.15 WHIP in 11 starts for the Padres this season.  The Padres used all their top bullpen arms yesterday to close out a 7-5 win over the Nationals and 12 combined runs.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* MLB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Braves/Reds OVER 9.5

The Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati is one of the most hitter-friendly parks in baseball.  The Reds are a dead nuts OVER team going 35-20-1 OVER in all games this season.  They are scoring 4.4 runs per game and allowing 5.0 runs per game.

The Braves have one of the best offenses in baseball.  They are scoring 5.3 runs per game this season.  They have scored 7 runs or more in three of their last four games, including yesterday in a 8-3 victory over the Reds and 11 combined runs.  It should be another slug fest today given the poor quality of these two starting pitchers.

Martin Perez is 1-1 with a 4.38 ERA in five road starts this season, allowing 12 earned runs and 4 homers in 24 2/3 innings.  I fully expect the Reds to crush this soft tosser.

But the Braves are capable of covering this total on their own against Brady Singer and this Cincinnati bullpen. Singer is 2-4 with a 6.26 ERA and 1.70 WHIP in 10 starts this season, allowing 32 earned runs, 14 homers and 78 base runners in 46 innings.  He is backed by one of the worst bullpens in baseball with a 4.88 ERA and 1.51 WHIP this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Spurs/Thunder Game 7 No-Brainer on UNDER 213.5

NBA Game 7's after Round 1 have gone 26-12 UNDER over the last two decades.  In the conference finals or NBA finals, the UNDER is 12-1 over this same stretch.  In matchups between Top 3 seeds, the UNDER is 17-2 in the last 19 Game 7's with one of those two overs only going over because of OT.

Familiarity favors defense and lower scoring games.  The longer a series goes on, the harder points are to come by.  The Spurs and Thunder know each other inside and out as this will be their 12th and final meeting of the season.  This favors defense over offense almost every time.

The Thunder being without two of their top four scorers in Jalen Williams and Ajay Mitchell have made them have to be more defensive-minded in these playoffs.  They are playing guys a lot more minutes that are more known for defense than offense in Dort, Caruso and Wallace.  They know they are good enough to win a defensive battle, too.

The pace in this series has consistently gotten slower and slower with fewer fast break opportunities.  The Spurs are playing much slower after having 23 turnovers in Game 1 and 21 in Game 2. They have just 15 turnovers or less in each of the last four games, making taking care of the ball more of a priority instead of getting out and running.  

These teams went for just 185 combined points in Game 4 and 209 in Game 6, so this total of 213.5 is still too high for Game 7 despite an adjustment down.  With a trip to the NBA Finals on the line tonight, both teams will play tight and that will favor defense over offense.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.