Jack Jones

20* Raptors/Lakers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 225.5

The Lakers are a dead nuts OVER team with an elite offense and terrible defense.  Their offense is going to be elite as long as Doncic (36.2 PPG) and Reaves (23.8 PPG) are both healthy.  They are scoring 118.5 points per game on 50.7% shooting including 37.3% from 3 this season.

But their defense is an issue giving up 117 points to the Clippers, 123 to the Jazz and 136 to the Blazers thus far.  Their offense put up 127 on the Warriors, 125 on the Clippers, 132 on the Jazz and 129 on the Blazers in four games where both Doncic and Reaves were available.

The Lakers are coming off two straight unders which are keeping this total lower than it should be.  They played the Clippers without Doncic and Reaves, and they shot terribly against the Warriors last time out.  I look for them to get their offense going again in this game and to hang a big number on the Raptors.

The Raptors rank 10th in pace this season and play even faster without Kawhi Leonard because they share the ball better.  They have gone OVER the total in each of their last two games without Leonard beating the Magic 129-99 for 228 combined points, and then losing the rematch to the Magic 121-114 for 235 combined points.  That's a Magic team without two of their best scorers in Banchero and Suggs, too.

With RJ Barrett and Immanuel Quickley running the show on offense, the Raptors are going to play fast and they will still be a very efficient offensive team.  They do lose some defense without Kawhi, and they don't have a lot of defensive talent outside of Scottie Barnes.  

The OVER is 7-2 in the last nine meetings between the Lakers and Raptors with 226 or more combined points in eight of those nine meetings, and 234 or more in seven of them.  This total of 225.5 is too short tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

Jack's Free Pick Sunday: Cincinnati Bengals -12.5

The Cincinnati Bengals have played a brutal schedule and have gotten through it at 5-2.  They are coming off a 35-13 road win over the Baltimore Ravens off their bye week.  They came out of their bye as healthy as they have been all season and showed what they were capable of in the 2H.  They didn't have any key injuries in that game, and they are one of the healthiest teams in the NFL.

We knew what this Cincinnati offense was capable of, and they showed it with 35 points in the 2H against the Ravens alone.  But the exciting part about the Bengals is just how improved they are defensively.  They are particularly strong along the front seven.  They are allowing just 20.3 points per game this season.

The Tennessee Titans showed they were going to be sellers at the deadline by trading away one of the best defensive lineman in the NFL in Jeffrey Simmons to the Chicago Bears.  And things have gone from bad to worse as they are without their best playmaker on offense in WR Carnell Tate this week.  Tyjae Spears is out and Calvin Ridley is questionable.

After getting blown out 26-3 by the Texans while being held to 187 yards of offense three weeks ago, the Titans have come back with two very concerning efforts that were also both misleading in their favor.  They beat the Colts 26-20 despite being held to 186 total yards and getting outgained by 213 yards two weeks ago.  They only lost 27-24 to the Browns despite giving up 491 yards and getting outgained by 169 yards and 2.3 yards per play last week.

To give up 491 yards to one of the worst offenses in the NFL in the Browns last week tells you everything you need to know about how poor this defense is.  The offense has struggled all season ranking 31st in scoring at 15.4 points per game, 32nd in total offense at 248.6 yards per game and 31st at 4.7 yards per play.  Tate was the lone bright spot on this offense with 34 receptions for 413 yards, which is more than double the yardage of the next-best receiver.  Cam Ward will be even more lost without him this week.

The Bengals are going to score at will in this game.  They can pretty much name their number against this struggling Tennessee defense that simply doesn't have much talent.  I don't see Ward being able to put up enough points against this improved Cincinnati defense to stay within two touchdowns in this one.  Bet the Bengals Sunday.

No. 2 Ranked Overall Capper All-Time! Jack Jones has absolutely CRUSHED the books over the past 8-plus years! He is riding a 7274-6351 Run L3338 Days on all premium plays that has seen his $1,000/game players cash in $322,650! He was the No. 6 Ranked Overall Capper in 2022 as well as the No. 8 Ranked Overall Capper in 2023! He finished as the No. 2 Ranked Overall Capper in 2024 with his $1,000/game players up $185,660 since January 1st, 2022!

No. 2 Ranked NFL Capper All-Time! Jack has SIX Top-10 NFL Finishes (#3 2009, #4 2023, #4 2017, #5 2024, #8 2019, #10 2008) to his credit! He is riding a 683-549 NFL Run that has his $1,000/game players winning $73,520! That includes a 410-319 NFL Run since November of 2021! He delivered an 81-56 NFL Record three seasons ago and finished as the No. 4 Ranked NFL Capper in 2023-24 as a result! He followed it up with an 87-66 NFL Record two seasons ago to finish as the No. 5 Ranked NFL Capper in 2024-25 as well!

Jack has delivered a 697-583 Run on all premium plays since February 11th! That includes a 90-48 Run on all top plays rated 20* or higher! He has cashed in a 449-336 Run on Football Totals as well! This pro football money train gets right back on track with Jack's Sunday NFL 5-Play Power Pack for $59.95! Leading the charge are a pair of top play winners in his 20* NFL BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK along with his 20* AFC TOTAL OF THE WEEK! You'll also receive three 15* plays on the pro gridiron upon purchase today folks!

It would cost you roughly $185 to buy all five plays separately, so YOU SAVE $125 with this 5-Pack! Sign up and bet with confidence knowing you are GUARANTEED PROFITS or Monday NFL is ON JACK!

15* Chargers/Rams Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on OVER 45.5

The Rams have one of the best offenses in the NFL even without Davante Adams.  They put up 35 points on the Raiders last week without him.  The Rams rank 1st in total offense at 399.1 yards per game this season.  They are going to be potent again this week against the Los Angeles Chargers, who are dealing with a ton of key injuries on defense.

But the biggest reason I'm on this OVER is that I am expecting a big improvement from the Chargers on offense coming out of their bye week.  They will unload the kitchen sink on the Rams, and offensive coordinator Mike McDaniels will play all of his best cards especially with him being on the hot seat after this 0-6 start.

The Chargers are going to be much healthier on offense coming out of the bye than they have been most of the season.  They get LT Joe Alt, WR McConkey and WR Harris back from injuries.  QB Justin Herbert will be in his best position to be successful this season with the return to health of several players.

Herbert should shine against what is a banged up Los Angeles Rams defense.  The Rams will be without LB Garrett, DE Turner and NT Ford, plus their best CB in McDuffie is questionable.  The Rams have been tagged for 37 points and 436 yards by the Bills, 338 yards by the Cardinals and 350 yards by the Cardinals in their last three games when these injuries have flared up.  This isn't a very good Rams defense in their current state.

The Chargers have decent defensive numbers this season, but they are banged up too, and they have struggled against some of the better offenses they have faced.  They have really benefited from an easy schedule of opposing offenses.  But the Chiefs lit them up for 422 yards and 7.4 yards per play in their last game.  The Seahawks scored 30 points on them.  The Chargers are without their most important defensive player in SS Derwin James, who was just placed on IR.  They are without CB Deane Leonard, and CB Donte Jackson is questionable.

Stafford will have his way through the air on the Chargers with their injuries in the secondary.  But the Rams have a two-headed monster at RB in Williams and Corum who should have a ton of success in this game as well.  The Chargers have allowed an average of 142.5 rushing yards per game and 4.7 yards per carry in their last four games.  The Rams will turn their red zone opportunities into points, and I think the Chargers will as well.

Both offenses like to play with tempo so there should be more possessions in this game and more opportunities for points in perfect scoring conditions in the dome.  The Rams rank 8th in tempo snapping the ball every 27.9 seconds, while the Chargers rank 11th snapping it every 28.7 seconds.  The Rams are 4-1 OVER in their last five games overall with 56 or more combined points in three of those.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* Vikings/Lions NFC North ANNIHILATOR on OVER 45.5

The Detroit Lions are a dead nuts OVER team.  They are 5-1 OVER in all games this season going for 61 combined points with the Saints, 72 with the Bills, 55 with the Jets, 58 with the Panthers and 66 with the Cardinals, topping this 45.5-point total every week but last week.

But that was a misleading 20-17 win over the Packers where both offenses left a lot of points on the board.  The Lions had 415 yards and 6.4 per play against what has proven to be a very good Green Bay defense this season.  They kneeled at the goal line at the end and kicked the game-winning FG.  The Packers had 324 yards and 5.1 per play and had problems in the kicking game again.  That misleading final is keeping this total against the Vikings lower than it should be this week.

The Lions are fully healthy on offense and thriving.  They are 2nd in scoring offense at 30.78 points per game, 2nd in total offense at 397.3 yards per game and 6th at 6.2 yards per play.  And we are getting Jared Goff indoors here which is where he really shines.

But the Lions have one of the worst defenses in the NFL again this season.  They rank 26th in scoring defense at 27.5 points per game, 32nd in total defense at 391.0 yards per game and 23rd at 5.8 yards per play.  They are without several key players in the secondary, and teams have been able to pass all over them.

The Vikings have been an UNDER team this season which is also keeping this total lower than it should be.  No question they have one of the best defenses in the NFL, but they have also benefited from an easy schedule of opposing offenses in the Packers in Week 1, the Bears in the slop in the game Caleb Williams got hurt, the Bucs in bad conditions, the Dolphins, the Saints and the Colts.

Jordan Love lit up this Minnesota defense for 387 passing yards and 2 touchdowns.  He is far and away the best QB the Vikings have faced this season.  Like Love, Jared Goff excels against the Blitz and has throughout his career.  The Vikings lead the league in blitz rate, and Goff ranks Top 5 in the NFL in six categories in EPA, Success Rate, completion percentage, passing TD's, completions and passing yards against the blitz this season.  He has an 8-to-0 TD/INT ratio against the blitz this season.  And over the last three seasons, he has a 21-to-3 TD/INT ratio against the blitz with more passing yards than any other QB and the highest passer rating in the league.

I also expect the Lions to use some tempo to not allow Brian Flores to sub in his blitz packages for a large part of this game, which will help Detroit's offense, but also lead to more possessions for both teams.  I would be stunned if the Lions don't use tempo, and that's a big part of this handicap.  The Lions rank 5th in tempo this season snapping the ball every 27.3 seconds.  It's a big part of their offensive arsenal that makes them so good.

This Minnesota offense has been a problem this season with just 10 TD's on the season.  But they haven't been healthy for much of the season, and Kyler Murray only recently returned from injury.  Carson Wentz was not the answer.  Murray should be much more comfortable this week going up against the worst defense he has faced this season in the Lions.  The Vikings are also fully healthy on offense for basically the first time this season.  With RB's Jones and Mason, WR's Jefferson, Addison and Jennings and TE Hockenson providing one of the best groups of weapons in the NFL, it's only a matter of time before it all comes together for Murray and this offense, and I think this is the week.

The OVER is 7-2 in the last nine meetings between the Lions and Vikings with 50 or more combined points in seven of those nine meetings.  This total of 45.5 is very short for a game in this series.  The Vikings have had the luxury of playing from ahead all season which is another reason they have been so conservative on offense.  They won't have that luxury this week, and I expect them to open it up to try and keep up with the Lions, who are going to get their points.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* Ravens/Bills AFC ANNIHILATOR on OVER 54

New head coach Joe Brady and the Bills have made the switch from being a defensive-minded, conservative team under Sean McDermott to a more offense-centric team this season.  Josh Allen is having a MVP-caliber season, leading the Bills to 32.8 points per game, 387.7 yards per game and 6.7 yards per play this season.  The Bills are 5-1 OVER in all games this season with 55 or more combined points in five of their six games, so this total of 54 isn't all that big for a game involving Buffalo.

The drop off defensively has been noticeable without McDermott, plus the fact that this is one of the least-talented defenses in the NFL.  The Bills are allowing 28.5 points per game, 386.8 yards per game and 5.8 yards per play.  The Bills rank 30th in scoring defense and 31st in total defense.  Buffalo ranks 1st in scoring offense, 4th in total offense and 1st in yards per play on offense.  They are the definition of an OVER team.

I expected Jesse Minter to improve this Baltimore defense but that hasn't been the case.  It was alarming watching the Ravens give up 35 points to the Bengals in the 2H alone last week.  And now they are a tired defense after being on the field for the majority of that 2H.  It's an aging defense with several guys past their prime including CB Humphrey and DE Campbell.  LB Trey Hendrickson has not made the difference the Ravens were hoping as they still lack a pass rush this season.

Lamar Jackson is finally back this week to revive this Baltimore offense.  They are very healthy on offense with the only starter they are missing being RG Ioane, but they have plenty of depth behind him.  Jackson has his full compliment of weapons in Flowers, Lane, Bateman and Henry and should throw it all over the yard on this soft Buffalo defense.  The Bills are particularly poor in the secondary, and I expect a pass-happy game plan with Jackson not looking to run as much coming off the ankle injury.  That will mean more clock stoppages and more points.

What has been so impressive about Buffalo's offense being explosive this season is the fact that DJ Moore has been out for most of the season.  But Moore returns this week off the bye, and Dalton Kincaid is good to go too.  Josh Allen will have his full compliment of weapons now, and the Bills should hang a big number on this overrated Baltimore defense.

The forecast looks great for a shootout with temps in the 60's, no wind and no rain in Buffalo this afternoon.  The Bills and Ravens played in a 41-40 shootout last season that saw 81 combined points.  I think we see something similar in the rematch.  The Ravens are 13-2 OVER in their last 15 games following a road loss.  Baltimore is 5-0 OVER in its last five games as a road underdog.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* AFC TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Raiders/Jets OVER 45

Klink Kubiak was in charge of the Super Bowl-winning Seattle offense last year and the improvement of Sam Darnold.  The Seahawks have no running game this season, and Darnold has looked awful.  A large part of that is losing Kubiak.  He is turning Kirk Cousins and this Las Vegas offense into one of the better units in the league, which is no small feat.  The Raiders are averaging 26.1 points per game this season.

But this is a bad, bad Las Vegas defense.  They are allowing 28.1 points per game, 374.1 yards per game and 6.2 yards per play this season.  They rank 29th in scoring defense, 30th in total defense and 30th in yards per play allowed.

The last five games were very concerning as they allowed 27 points and 381 yards to the Saints, 30 points and 399 yards to the Chiefs, 45 points and 539 yards to the Patriots who were down three of their top four receivers, 33 points to the Bills and 35 points to the Rams without Adams.

The Raiders have gone 5-0 OVER in their last five games with 62 combined points with the Saints, 57 with the Chiefs, 62 with the Patriots, 63 with the Bills and 56 with the Rams.  This total of 45 is very short for a game involving the Raiders right now, especially when you consider they rank 6th in tempo snapping the ball every 27.4 seconds.

The Jets are an OVER team in their current form.  They are 2-0 OVER in their last two games going for 45 combined points with the Patriots in tough conditions and 53 combined points with the Dolphins in tough conditions.  They put up 324 yards and 5.7 per play against the Patriots while allowing 383 yards and 5.6 per play.  They put up 377 yards and 7.4 per play against the Dolphins but allowed 28 points, 360 yards and 5.8 per play to a Miami offense that is one of the worst in the NFL.

The reason the Jets are such an OVER team currently is because they are as healthy as they have been all season offensively, but as banged up as they have been all season defensively.  The Jets will be without three of their best defensive linemen in DE David Bailey, DT T'Vondre Sweat and DE Joseph Ossai this week.  They are very thin at the position, and the Raiders should get whatever they want offensively.

QB Geno Smith would love to get some revenge and hang a big number on his former team in the Raiders.  He has been without WR Mitchell, WR Cooper Jr., TE Taylor and TE Sadiq at times this season.  But all four guys are healthy now, and this is actually one of the best group of weapons in the NFL when you add in WR Wilson.  The Raiders have allowed at least 27 points in five consecutive games coming into this one, and I think we make that six in a row against the Jets.  This feels like a 27-24 type of game.  

The forecast looks great for a shootout with temps in the 60's, no wind and no rain in New York which is rare for this time of year in November.  Both offenses will have their way with these two suspect defenses today.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* NFL BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Jacksonville Jaguars -8

I locked in the Jaguars -8 as soon as the Colts traded their best offensive lineman in Quentin Nelson.  They have since traded their DeForrest Buckner, and they are looking to trade both Jonathan Taylor and Josh Downs.  They have signaled they are throwing in the towel for this season, and I expect that to play out on the field this week.

The spot really favors the Jaguars.  They are coming off a bye and are one of the healthiest teams in the NFL.  They lost to the Texans in London going into their bye, so they should come out motivated.  Teams with the rest advantage are 23-8 SU & 22-8-1 ATS this season.  The Jags own the Colts, going 18-3-1 ATS in their last 22 meetings.  They have gone 10-0 SU & 9-1 ATS in their last 10 home meetings with Indianapolis.

The Jaguars have one of the best offenses in the NFL scoring 25.7 points per game this season.  They are 9-2 SU & 9-2 ATS at home under Coen and Lawrence and scoring 30.1 points per game in those 11 games.  They have an underrated defense that allows 17.3 points per game.  They are great against the run allowing 72.2 rushing yards per game and 3.2 per carry.  That makes this a great matchup for them this week trying to stop Jonathan Taylor, and who knows how much he actually plays since he's on the trade block.

The Colts have some of the worst numbers in the NFL this season.  They average just 4.7 yards per play on offense and allow 6.0 yards per play on defense.  They are getting outgained by 1.3 yards per play.  Daniel Jones is broken and a shell of his former self now that he doesn't run anymore.  HIs dual-threat ability prior to this season was his best weapon.  Jones has only rushed for 68 yards all season.  He's not a pocket passer, and he will get lit up by the Jaguars.

The Colts have cluster injuries in the secondary that the Jaguars can exploit.  They will be without two starting CB's in Cam Taylor-Britt and Justin Walley.  Sauce Gardner is back, but he has been one of the worst CB's in the NFL when he has been on the field.  The Gardner trade has proven to be one of the biggest busts in NFL history with what the Jets received in return for him.

The Colts have lost three straight coming in to the Steelers, Titans and Vikings and their season is already over.  Management has shown they don't care about winning games, and I don't see these players caring about winning this game in particular this week given all that has gone on around them.  The Jaguars tend to handle their business at home with blowout wins over the Patriots by 29 and the Browns by 24 in their two home games this season.  This will be another blowout in their favor.  Bet the Jaguars Sunday.