Jack Jones

Jack's Free Pick Sunday: Pelicans/Rockets OVER 230

The Houston Rockets should be able to let their hair down today and hang a big number on the New Orleans Pelicans to break out of their recent offensive funk that has mostly come against very good defensive teams.  The Pelicans are not that.

New Orleans ranks 9th in pace and 28th in defensive rating to profile as an OVER team.  They have gone 3-1 OVER in their last four games overall.  They have finished with 229 or more combined points in five consecutive games, including 235 or more in four of them.  This is a low total for a game involving the Pelicans.

The first and only meeting between the Pelicans and Rockets this season was a shootout.  The Pelicans won 133-128 (OT), but it was tied 119-119 at the end of regulation for 238 combined points, which would easily top this 230-point total in the rematch.  The OVER is 5-1 in the last six meetings with 232 or more combined points in five of those six.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

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15* AAC PLAY OF THE DAY on Tulsa/UAB OVER 156.5

Tulsa is a dead nuts OVER team going 11-4 OVER in all games this season and not once going to OT.  The Golden Hurricane rank 44th in adjusted offense and 173rd in adjusted defense.  They are 8-1 OVER in their last nine games overall and have gone for at least 160 combined points in seven of their last 10 games.  This total of 156.5 is very low for a game involving Tulsa right now.

UAB ranks 90th in adjusted tempo and 116th in adjusted offense.  The Blazers have gone for at least 171 combined points in four of their last seven games overall.  They are scoring 83.4 points per game this season with Tulsa scoring 87.6 points per game.  I expect both teams to get into the 80's today.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* CBB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on IPFW -4

I love the spot for IPFW today.  The Mastadons will be out for revenge from a 77-55 road loss at Milwaukee on December 29th.  That was a rare poor performance by them as they shot 36.2% from the field and 21.9% from 3-point range.  They have still gone 7-2 SU in their last nine games overall, and I expect them to have their revenge in the rematch here.

They have the rest advantage after having the last week off.  Milwaukee just lost 73-60 at home to Oakland on Thursday and has just two days to get ready.  The Panthers have been terrible since that win over IPFW, going 1-5 SU & 2-4 ATS in their last six games overall.  They are also without their best player in Seth Hubbard (16.6 PPG) due to injury.  Bet IPFW Sunday.

15* CBB Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Oakland/Green Bay OVER 155

Oakland is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Golden Grizzlies rank 25th in adjusted tempo, 69th in adjusted offense and 263rd in adjusted defense.  They are 13-5 OVER in all games this season while scoring 83.5 points per game and allowing 82.3 points per game and have not played an OT game all season.  This total of 155 is very low for a game involving Oakland.

Green Bay is playing its best offense of the season scoring 72 or more points in six straight.  They are coming off 88 points against Cleveland State and 80 against Northern Kentucky.  The Phoenix rank 135th in adjusted offense but just 309th in adjusted defense.  This total of 155 is very low for a game involving two teams that rank this poorly on defense.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Sacramento Kings -2.5

The Sacramento Kings are playing their best basketball of the season.  They are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall covering the spread by a combined 76 points.  They won all four games by double-digits.  They beat the Rockets by 13 as 14.5-point dogs, the Lakers by 12 as 9.5-point dogs, the Knicks by 11 as 10.5-point dogs and the Wizards by 13 as 7.5-point favorites.

This run has coincided with the Kings getting as healthy as they have been all season.  They now have their two best players back and healthy in LaVine and Sabonis.  They only player they are missing right now is Keegan Murray.  I fully expect them to continue playing well tonight to try and keep this winning streak going.

This is a terrible spot for the Portland Trail Blazers.  They are coming off a 132-116 home win over the Lakers last night, a Lakers team that was missing 3 starters in Reaves, Doncic and Ayton.  They will now be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 13th game in 22 days.  They are one of the most tired teams in the NBA right now.  They are also extremely banged up with Avdija, Grant and Holiday all candidates to sit out tonight.  Bet the Kings Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Hornets/Nuggets OVER 227.5

With the quartet of Ball (20.2 PPG, 7.6 APG), Bridges (19.4 PPG), Miller (19.7 PPG) and Knueppel (19.2 PPG) all healthy right now, the Charlotte Hornets are a dead nuts OVER team.  They are 4-0 OVER in their last four games overall combining for 245 points with the Jazz, 226 with the Clippers, 252 with the Lakers and 252 with the Warriors.

The Nuggets have been a dead nuts OVER team all season going 27-15 OVER in all games.  They rank 1st in offensive rating and 22nd in defensive rating.  They have continued being an OVER team even without Nikola Jokic.  They are 3-0 OVER in their last three games overall going for 238 combined points with the Pelicans, 227 with the Mavs and 236 with the Wizards.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

25* NFL Playoffs TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Rams/Bears OVER 50.5

Note: I grabbed OVER 50.5 as soon as it dropped below 51 at most places.  51 is such a key number for NFL totals that I pulled the trigger.  Of course, I wish I would have waited as this total is 48.5 as of this writing.  But there's pretty much no difference between 48.5 and 50.5 as 49 and 50 are really dead numbers unless there's missed XP's.  I love it even more at 48.5.  The tick down on this total has also brought the Rams' team total down to 26.5, and I recommend a bet on the OVER 26.5 as well as I'm very confident the Rams will do their part to get 27-plus points. They have scored at least 28 points in 10 of their last 12 games. BONUS BET: Rams OVER 26.5 Team Total

This total ticking down is solely due to the weather.  It's going to be 20 degrees in Chicago with 15-20 MPH winds.  There's been a lot said about Matthew Stafford in cold weather, but he has actually been great in bad weather recently.  It was windy and rainy in Carolina and he threw for 304 yards and 3 TD while leading the Rams to 34 points.  It was windy and rainy in Seattle and he led the Rams to 37 points and 581 total yards against arguably the league's best defense.  Last year in Philadelphia in the divisional round, it was freezing temps with snow and Stafford threw for 324 yards and 2 TD while leading the Rams to 402 total yards against that Super Bowl Eagles defense.  All this talk about the weather is overblown.  If it was perfect weather, this total should be in the upper-50's.

The Rams are a perfect 7-0 OVER in their last seven games overall finishing with 51 or more combined points in all seven games.  The Rams and their opponents have combined to average a whopping 63.4 points per game in those seven games.  This includes two games against Arizona and two games against Carolina, two of the worst offenses in the NFL.

The Rams are hitting on all cylinders offensively scoring 34 or more points in nine of their last 12 games.  They have the best offense in the NFL ranking 1st in scoring at 30.7 points per game, 1st in total offense at 395.6 yards per game and 2nd at 6.3 yards per play.  They are fully healthy on offense and even get back RG Kevin Dotson this week, who is one of the best guards in the game.  He's a big reason the Rams rank 1st in success rate running the football.  And their ability to run the ball opens up everything for Stafford.

The Bears will offer little resistance defensively.  They rank 29th in total defense at 365.1 yards per game and 29th at 6.2 yards per play.  They are 27th against the run allowing 132.6 rushing yards per game and 29th at 5.0 yards per carry.  The Bears lost LB T.J. Edwards (67 tackles) to a season-ending injury against the Packers last week in their wild 31-27 comeback win that saw 58 combined points.  The Packers did whatever they wanted to offensively and finished with 421 total yards.  It was cold and windy in that game, too.

The Bears just played in a classic shootout with the 49ers in Week 17 in a 42-38 loss for 80 combined points.  They are really a dead nuts OVER team in their current state.  Their offense is fully healthy with Caleb Williams having his full compliment of weapons in WR's Odunze, Moore and Burden, TE's Loveland and Kmet and the 2-headed monster at RB in Swift and Monangai.  They also have one of the best offensive lines in the NFL with PFF ranking them 3rd.  They surrendered a league-low 13 sacks this season, and they paved the way for the 3rd-best rushing attack in the NFL at 141.6 rushing yards per game.

The Bears will stay hot on offense against a Rams defense that has cratered here down the stretch.  The Rams are allowing 28.3 points per game in their last seven games.  Again, that includes four games against two of the worst offenses in the NFL in the Cardinals (twice) and Panthers (twice).  Teams are getting whatever they want against this Rams secondary, which is now down another starter with CB Akhello Witherspoon being placed on IR after suffering another injury against Carolina.  Bryce Young led the Panthers to 31 points and 264 passing yards against them last week.

The weather is also negated by the fact that both teams are going to be able to run the football with a ton of success.  I've already stated why the Rams will be successful on the ground, but the Bears' 3rd-ranked rushing attack will be, too.  The Rams are allowing 4.7 yards per carry in their last seven games.  The Falcons rushed for 219 yards on 33 carries and the Seahawks 171 yards on 25 carries recently.  Whatever team is down is going to be able to make a comeback in what should be a back and forth game that features plenty of offensive fireworks.  The only thing I'm certain of is neither of these defenses are going to be able to get many stops.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.