Jack Jones

15* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on New York Knicks -4.5

The Knicks are over their championship hangover and have gone 4-1 SU in their last five games heading into this one with their lone loss coming on the road by 5 to the Philadelphia 76ers.  They just beat the Nets by 13 and the Bulls by 30 in their last two games.

The Knicks will be rested and ready to go tonight after having the last two days off.  They will be playing just their 3rd game in 8 days with those two blowout wins as well allowing starters to rest late.  They have two more days off after this game, so they will be 'all in' to get a win tonight.

While it's a great spot for the Knicks, it's a terrible spot for the Cleveland Cavaliers.  They are coming off a 119-95 home win over the Philadelphia 76ers in the NBA Cup last night.  That was a win they desperately wanted after falling twice to the Oklahoma City Thunder in their two games prior.

Don't be surprised to see the Cavs rest starters on this 2nd of a back-to-back tonight.  They will also be playing their 7th game in 11 days, which is about as tough as this rest situation can be.  They are dealing with injuries to C Allen and some role players off the bench.  Merrill got hurt last night and is likely out, and both Tyson and Watson have missed time with injuries and could rest as well.  Either way, I like the road team to get the win and cover tonight.  Bet the Knicks Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on VMI/UTSA OVER 163.5

VMI is a run and gun team.  The Keydets beat Virginia Lynchburg 115-83 in the opener for 198 combined points.  They came back with a 95-70 loss at SMU and 165 combined points.  They shot just 28.6% from the field against SMU or it would hav been more.

UTSA is also coming off a 95-74 shootout loss at San Jose State that saw 169 combined points.  They didn't shoot it that great either connecting on just 42.9% from the field.  Both teams will shoot it better today in what should be an absolute track meet.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Memphis +2

After years of high expectations under Penny Hardaway due to tremendous recruiting classes, the Memphis Tigers are finally flying under the radar this season.  That's evidenced by the fact that they are home underdogs to VCU today.  We'll take advantage of the value while it's available.

Memphis showed what it was capable of with a 80-76 upset win over Iowa State as 15.5-point underdogs in the opener.  That's a Iowa State team that most expect to compete for a Big 12 title and to make a deep run in the tournament.  It was no fluke, either.

Jayden Reid had 26 points, Luke Almodovar had 18 points and Rihards Vavers had 15 points to lead the way for the Tigers.  They have tremendous athleticism down low, and they looks to have improved shooters on the outside too, especially Almodovar and Vavers.

VCU was unimpressive in a 82-72 home win over Arkansas-Little Rock as 18.5-point favorites in its opener.  The Rams stunk offensively shooting just 38.5% from the field, but they benefited from 38 fouls committed by Little Rock which led to that led to a ridiculous 48 FT attempts.  They won't be that fortunate against a better Memphis team in their first true road game today.  Bet Memphis Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Brooklyn Nets +7.5

The spot really favors the Brooklyn Nets tonight.  They have had the last two days off and have quietly gone 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall leading into this game with the Atlanta Hawks.

This is a terrible spot for the Hawks.  They just beat the Wizards 139-132 last night in the NBA Cup in an absolute shootout.  They will now be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 10th game in 16 days, which is about as tough as a spot can get.

The Hawks won't care about this game at all after winning their NBA Cup game.  Don't be surprised to see them rest several of their best players to try and recover to face the Lakers on Monday, a game they will be looking forward to in this clear sandwich spot.  Bet the Nets Saturday.

25* Big Ten GAME OF THE YEAR on Iowa ML -125

I released Iowa ML -125 as a 25* play as soon as I got the news that Northwestern QB Aidan Chiles was out.  I don't think his loss is being factored into this line enough as Chiles was one of the most improved QB's in the country.

Chiles is the reason Northwestern has one of the most improved offenses in the country running the offense designed for him by Chip Kelly.  He has completed 68.8% of his passes for 1,898 yards with a 13-to-1 TD/INT ratio while averaging 9.4 per attempt.  But his ability as a dual-threat is big too as he has 10 rushing touchdowns already this season.  Chiles is irreplaceable, and backup Nicco Marchiol has only attempted one pass all season.

The 34-26 loss to Oregon last week is the type of loss that can beat a team twice.  I think Northwestern had its playoff hopes crushed with that defeat, and they know it, too.  They actually led 20-6 and were in firm control before falling apart in the 2H.  They allowed Dylan Raiola to throw all over them for 336 passing yards and 7.5 yards per play.  Their defense was exposed.

Northwestern was living on borrowed time, anyway.  They have benefited from an extremely soft schedule of Ball State, Michigan State, Rutgers and Oregon in their last four games.  They got to play Rutgers without their QB and star WR, and they only beat a bad, banged up Michigan State team by 3.  The win over Penn State was a good one, but it also came without Penn State's best WR in Howard, the start of a 4-game skid for the Nittany Lions.  They did play Indiana close, but everyone is playing Indiana close.  None of their performances have aged very well.

Iowa has legit playoff aspirations with a soft schedule the rest of the way if they handle their business this week.  They have Northwestern, Purdue, Illinois and Nebraska remaining and there's a great chance for them to get to 10-2 and in the 12-team playoff.  Off their misleading 3-point loss to Minnesota where they turned it over 4 times to give the game away, Iowa came back with a resounding 30-0 win over Wisconsin last week.

QB Hank Brown was named the starter and came through with one of the best games of his career against an elite Wisconsin defense.  Brown went 20-of-24 for 222 yards and 2 TD in the win, with almost all of that done in the 1H where he had 190 passing yards at intermission.  The Hawkeyes were able to sit on it in the 2H with the game firmly in hand and a 20-0 lead at halftime with a 30-0 lead by the end of the 3Q.

Despite playing the tougher schedule, Iowa has the better numbers and is the better team.  Iowa averages 383.6 yards per game and 6.1 yards per play on offense, while allowing 275.5 yards per game and 4.4 yards per play on defense.  The Hawkeyes are outgaining opponents by 108 yards per game and 1.7 yards per play.  Northwestern is only outgaining opponents by 62 yards per game and 1.2 yards per play.  And you have to factor in all of those numbers came with Chiles at QB, and they won't have him now.

Iowa owns Northwestern going 4-0 SU in the last four meetings.  They beat Northwestern 40-14 in their most recent meeting.  Kirk Ferentz has been dominant as a road favorite going 22-9 ATS in his last 31 games in this role.  The Hawkeyes will handle their business in this one.  Bet Iowa on the Money Line Saturday.

15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on South Carolina -6.5

South Carolina is 5-3 but probably deserved better in two of the losses.  They lost by 7 to Mississippi State despite outgaining them by 38 yards.  They lost 35-34 (OT) to Kentucky despite outgaining them by 64 yards.  It was impressive to see them play up to their potential and bounce back with a 38-19 road win at Florida off the Kentucky loss.  It saved their season.

The Gamecocks returned from their bye two weeks ago and kept the momentum with a 27-24 home win over Tennessee.  There was nothing fluky about the win either as the Gamecocks outgained the Vols 5.5 to 4.4 yards per play.  They came back with their best performance of the season last week with a 42-25 road win at Oklahoma as 3.5-point dogs.  They racked up 521 total yards and 7.3 yards per play against Oklahoma's defense, which is far and away the worst performance of a Sooners' defense in the Will Venables era.  

The Gamecocks are very close to being 7-1 this season and have the numbers of a team that easily could be.  South Carolina has elite numbers averaging 36.9 points per game, 464.1 yards per game and 6.5 per play on offense, while allowing 340.5 yards per game and 5.2 per play on defense.  They are outgaining opponents by 123 yards per game and 1.3 yards per play.

QB La'Norris Sellers is balling out and on a mission.  The Gamecocks have also gotten healthier on defense and are living up to their potential on that side of the ball.  Sellers went 19-of-24 for 301 yards and 3 TD against Oklahoma's defense last week.  He also rushed for 96 yards and two scores.  He is showing why he is going to be a top draft pick.

Texas A&M is 4-4 and in the midst of a lost season after making the 12-team playoff last year.  I know the Aggies are off a bye, but how excited can they be to finish the season knowing their dreams have been crushed?  This Texas A&M offense has held them back big time, and Marcel Reed has been the culprit.  He is completing just 56.8% of his passes with a 8-to-8 TD/INT ratio, and he isn't even a dual-threat this season with just 198 rushing yards and 2.8 per carry.  He has been terrible.

The Aggies haven't even been competitive in SEC play against the better teams that are on South Carolina's level.  They lost by 10 at home to Kentucky, by 29 at LSU, by 21 at Missouri and by 11 at Alabama.  That was a banged up Alabama team missing key players, too.  They are 0-3 SU in SEC road games while getting outscored by 20.3 points per game with an offense that has averaged just 10.7 points per game.  

The Aggies don't have the firepower to keep up with Sellers and this South Carolina offense this week.  The Gamecocks also have an outside chance of making the 12-team playoff with a big finish because they currently sit 21st in the playoff rankings.  Win out and I would be surprised if they don't make it into the Top 12 and they know it.  They have a home date with Georgia in two weeks that would catapult them in.  The Gamecocks are focused on handling their business and their will be no letdown this week.  Bet South Carolina Saturday.

15* MWC PLAY OF THE DAY on Wyoming +6

The spot really favors the Wyoming Cowboys.  They are coming off a bye week with two full weeks to prepare for UNLV.  They are still very much alive in the Mountain West title race after going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS n their last three games overall leading into the bye.  They are quietly playing as well as anyone in the conference right now, and I expect a big effort from them at UNLV coming out of their bye.

UNLV returned from its bye and earned a lackluster 31-24 win over Northern Illinois as 21.5-point favorites.  They actually allowed 493 yards to a very bad Northern Illinois offense.  That's a Northern Illinois team that is 0-8 this season with several blowout losses.

UNLV is 5-3 this season but doesn't have many impressive wins.  The five wins have come against Hawaii, Akron, Cal, NDSU and Northern Illinois.  They were outgained by 45 yards by NDSU and outgained by 119 yards by Cal.  When they have stepped up in class, they have lost.  They lost 27-21 to Memphis at home, 44-6 to North Texas on the road and 41-31 to Air Force on the road.

Both Wyoming and UNLV are 5-3 this season.  A quick look at the numbers and it's easy to see Wyoming is the better team.  The Cowboys are averaging 5.7 yards per play on offense and allowing 5.4 yards per play on defense.  They are outgaining opponents by 0.3 yards per play.  UNLV averages 5.8 yards per play on offense and allows 5.8 yards per play on defense, breaking dead even in YPP margin.  With Wyoming off a bye and UNLV not, this spread should be much closer to PK.  Bet Wyoming Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Air Force/Army UNDER 45.5

Death, Taxes and Service Academy UNDERS.  The UNDER is 45-11-2 the last 20 yards in Service Academy games.  They play slow, know each other inside and out, and get to practice against this offense every day in practice for the entire year.  That familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games.

Army ranks dead last in the country in tempo at 138th snapping the ball every 32.1 seconds.  Air Force ranks 134th snapping the ball every 30 seconds.  Air Force is down to a 3rd-string QB too to really hamper its offense.

We already saw one come through earlier this season with Air Force beating Navy 14-9 for just 23 combined points.  And these Army/Air Force games in particular have been extremely low-scoring.  They have combined for 37 or fewer points in nine consecutive meetings.  Enough said.  This total of 45.5 is way too high.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on West Virginia +17

The spot really favors the West Virginia Mountaineers this week.  They desperately needed a bye week and got one last week.  They play at the 3rd-fastest tempo in the country which is taxing on both sides of the ball, but especially their defense.  Now they have had two full weeks to rest and prepare for Texas Tech, and the Mountaineers should put their best foot forward trying to pull off the upset.

Texas Tech will be playing for a 4th consecutive week.  After losing 37-24 at Cincinnati two weeks ago, the Red Raiders came back with a very important 34-26 home win over Arizona last week that kept their Big 12 title hopes alive.  They have another massive game on deck next week against Oklahoma State, making this a sandwich spot for them.

Texas Tech has been overvalued for much of the season with some very fortunate covers along the way against Sam Houston State and Colorado.  They needed two defensive touchdowns to cover by a 0.5 point against Sam Houston, and they were actually outgained by 60 yards by Colorado.  They were outgained by 27 yards by Cincinnati, and they only outgained Arizona by 43 yards.

Texas Tech isn't nearly as dominant as it was last season but it continues to be priced like the team it was a year ago.  The Red Raiders have seen a big drop off defensively, and their QB play has been poor all season which is why they have switched to Thomas Castellanos.  While Castellanos is a good runner, he's a much worse passer than Will Hammond.  Castellanos has only completed 48.3% of his passes this season and 6.5 yards per attempt.

I think getting two weeks to prepare for Castellanos to be the QB will benefit West Virginia greatly.  There's a reason he hasn't made it as a QB at his previous stops at Boston College and Florida State.  You don't want a QB that is a better runner than a passer.  It's easy to game plan for as time goes on.  And West Virginia is used to playing against this read-option offense since that's what they run.

This has been a potent WVU offense that is producing 35.9 points pre game, 468.1 yards per game and 6.3 yards per play.  Their up-tempo style will test this tired Texas Tech defense.  And Texas Tech hasn't faced many good rushing offenses like WVU.  The one that is WVU-light is Cincinnati, which rushed for 255 yards and 6.4 per carry on this Texas Tech defense.  The Mountaineers will have even more success on the ground.  Bet West Virginia Saturday.

15* MWC Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Northern Illinois/San Jose State OVER 51.5

Northern Illinois is a tired, beat up defense that is one of the worst in the country.  The Huskies rank 136th in scoring defense allowing 37.6 points per game, 129th in total defense allowing 433.8 yards per game and 128th allowing 6.6 yards per play.  

Two of the last three weeks were very concerning when they allowed 41 points and 510 yards to Wyoming and 56 points and 504 yards to Hawaii.  Wyoming and Hawaii were previously two of the worst offenses in the country.  They also allowed 31 points and 473 yards to UNLV last week.

But I think Northern Illinois will also have some success offensively.  The Huskies have played a tough schedule of opposing defenses and have 300-plus yards in five of their last seven games, including 493 yards on UNLV last week.  I actually like QB Taron Dickens, who is completing 63.6% of his passes for 1,617 yards with a 8-to-6 TD/INT ratio.  They rushed for 240 yards on UNLV last week.

San Jose State has played a brutal schedule of opposing defenses here of late which is why its offensive numbers have been suppressed.  They scored 26 points on USC, 27 on Eastern Michigan and 30 on Cal Poly to start the season.  But they have since faced Fresno State, Hawaii, Wyoming, UTEP, Nevada and New Mexico.  Those are also some very poor offensive teams, which is a big reason why SJSU has gone UNDER the total in eight consecutive games.  Those eight consecutive unders have provided us some line value to pull the trigger on the OVER this week.

San Jose State has a poor defense, too.  The Spartans allow 376.8 yards per game this season, allowing 28 yards per game more than their opponents typically average.  That's real poor when you consider just how easy their schedule of opposing offenses has been.  Northern Illinois will actually be one of the better offenses they have faced this season.

But what really stands out is the tempo in this game and the fact that there will be a ton of possessions.  San Jose State actually ranks 11th in tempo this season snapping the ball every 23.5 seconds.  Northern Illinois ranks 52nd, snapping the ball every 25.9 seconds.  The forecast also looks great for a shootout with temps in the 70's, no wind and no rain.  This will be a care-free shootout between two teams with not a lot to play for.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Houston -10.5

The spot really favors the Houston Cougars this week.  They are coming off their bye week sitting at 6-2 with narrow losses to both Utah and Texas Tech and both came on the road.  They are still alive for the Big 12 and perhaps the 12-team playoff, and they will come out of their bye champing at the bit to make a statement against Cincinnati.

This is a terrible spot for Cincinnati.  The Bearcats will be playing for a 4th consecutive week after three straight grueling games.  They lost 45-42 at West Virginia, came back and upset Texas Tech at home, and then got blasted 49-25 by Utah.  They are a tired team and will have a hard time getting back up off the mat after that home loss to the Utes last week.

Houston is going to score at will on this tired, poor Cincinnati defense.  It's a Cincinnati defense that allowed 522 yards to Arizona, 598 to WVU and 534 to Utah in three of its last four games.  Houston boasts one of the most underrated offenses in the country.  The Cougars average 36.0 points per game, 470.5 yards per game and 6.7 yards per play on offense this season.

Houston is also fully healthy as a team coming out of the bye with not a single player listed on the injury report that isn't probable.  Cincinnati has been atrocious on the road this season, going 0-2 SU & 0-2 ATS with that 3-point loss at West Virginia plus a 27-point loss at Arizona.  This will be their toughest road test of the season.

Houston is 4-0 SU at home this season outscoring opponents by 24.2 points per game.  And they have played a pretty difficult home schedule of Oregon State, Southern, UCF and Oklahoma State.  I expect the Cougars to blast the Bearcats given the rest advantage and what they have left to play for.  Bet Houston Saturday.

15* Big 12 Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Oklahoma State/Kansas State OVER 62

The Oklahoma State Cowboys are a dead nuts OVER team with a thriving offense.  In their last seven games they put up 39 points and 554 yards on Oregon, 59 points and 662 yards on Murray State, 41 points and 609 yards on West Virginia, 42 points and 414 yards on UCF, 32 points and 499 yards on Houston, 57 points and 598 yards on Colorado and 49 points and 533 yards on Iowa State.  They have gone 6-1 OVER in those seven games with 59 or more combined points in all seven, and 65 or more in six of them.  This total of 62 is too short for a game involving Oklahoma State.

Eric Morris brought his up-tempo offense from North Texas with him and the Cowboys rank 13th in tempo this season, snapping the ball every 23.7 seconds.  They combined for 70 points with Oregon, 65 with WVU, 70 with UCF, 67 with Houston, 81 with Colorado and 100 with Iowa State last week.  Their defense is a problem and will continue to get exposed as the season progresses having to be on the field so long because their offense scores so fast.  They are tired after giving up 51 points and 581 yards to the Cyclones last week, and they'll be playing for a 5th consecutive week to boot.

I liked what I saw from Kansas State QB Blake Barnett last week in a 27-24 loss to Colorado.  Barnett went 18-of-28 for 224 yards and 3 TD while also rushing for 40 yards.  Kansas State head coach Colin Klein is a former QB for the program and is an offensive-minded guy.  He won't mind getting into a shootout with Oklahoma State this week.

The switch to an offensive-minded head coach in Klein from the defensive-minded Kleiman last year has shown on that side of the football, too.  The Wildcats are allowing 29.0 points per game, 399 yards per game and 6.3 yards per play in Big 12 play.  And they haven't faced many offenses nearly as potent as Oklahoma State this season.  They did allow 35 points and 475 yards to Houston, the only somewhat similar comp.  I expect Oklahoma State to get 35-plus in this one as well, and for K-State to be forced to get into a shootout and put up one of its highest point totals of the season.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Sun Belt TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Old Dominion/Coastal Carolina OVER 43.5

This is a very low total for an Old Dominion team that ranks 7th in tempo this season snapping the ball every 22.8 seconds.  They showed some life last week in a 36-23 loss to Marshall and 59 combined points.  The switch to QB Jaxon Potter made a big difference.  He threw for 329 yards against Marshall.

Coastal Carolina also ranks in the top half of the country in tempo at 60th snapping the ball every 26.2 seconds.  And this is a much better offense than they get credit for largely due to QB Deuce Bailey, who has thrown for 1,935 yards with a 19-to-6 TD/INT ratio while also rushing for 232 yards.  The Chanticleers have put up 31 and 32 points the last two weeks against Georgia State and App State, respectively.

These defenses leave a lot to be desired.  Old Dominion is allowing 27.8 points per game this season.  Coastal Carolina is allowing 25.1 points per game, 412 yards per game and 6.1 yards per play.  The forecast looks great for a shootout with temps in the 60's, less than 10 MPH winds and no precipitation.

These Coastal Carolina games have almost all gone over this 43.5-point total.  In fact, Coastal Carolina and its opponents have combined for at least 48 points in seven of its eight games this season.  This total of 43.5 is simply too short today.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* BYU/Utah ABC No-Brainer on UNDER 49

BYU and Utah absolutely hate each other in a rivalry that is known as the Holy War.  That hatred tends to favor defense and low-scoring games as both defenses lay it all on the line.  That has played out in recent seasons with BYU and Utah combining for 45 points or fewer in four consecutive meetings, and six of the last seven meetings overall.  This total of 49 is too high.

BYU is never in a hurry ranking 124th in tempo snapping the ball every 29 seconds.  Utah isn't in a hurry, either, ranking 104th in tempo while snapping the ball every 28.1 seconds.  Possessions will be limited in this game, which means fewer opportunities for points.

Both teams feature run-heavy offenses that keep the clock moving.  BYU averages 35 rush attempts per game compared to 27 pass attempts.  Utah averages 40 rush attempts compared to 31 pass attempts.  Both teams have elite defenses that are particularly good at stopping the run, too.

Utah allows 15.9 points per game, 101.4 rushing yards per game and 3.6 per carry.  BYU allows 18.8 points per game, 100 rushing yards per game and 3.3 per carry.  These offenses haven't seen many defenses nearly as good as the ones they will be across from Saturday.

This is also a 10:00 AM local kick time so both teams could be sleep walking to start the game, which favors defense.  These players aren't used to playing this early.  It's a shame it's not a primetime game.  But we'll take advantage and back the UNDER.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* Big 12 TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Iowa State/Baylor OVER 50.5

I like the fact that Baylor fired Dave Aranda for this OVER bet.  He made his chops as a defensive coordinator and is the reason the Bears are as good defensively as they are this season.  I feel like the offense has been feeling the pressure of not trying to lose the game thus far instead of going out there and winning it on a weekly basis.

Interim head coach Joe Klanderman is taking the right approach and I think it will free up the offense to go out there and make plays and live up to their talent level.  Klanderman spent time with QB DJ Lagway on Sunday night and reinforced the message he gave the team earlier in the day.

"I want to take the pressure off of you," the new head coach said of what he told the players. "I want to let you guys play free and let you play relaxed.  I want you to play with intensity and passion.  I want that to be the staple of Baylor football.  That's not a Baylor defense thing, that's not a Baylor offense thing.  That's Baylor.  That's how we play. When you play Baylor, that's what you're going to get."

I think the offense was playing tight under Aranda.  Most don't realize it but Baylor actually ranks 2nd in tempo in the country, snapping the ball every 21.7 seconds.  That won't change, but I just think with the extra tempo Lagway and company will be allowed to take more chances and make plays.  

That was my analysis leading into their game against UCF last week, and boy did they deliver offensively.  Baylor put forth its best offensive performance of the season in a 41-9 win over UCF.  Lagway threw for 319 yards and 4 TD in the win.  That was against a good UCF defense, too.  Baylor's defense did benefit from UCF in a letdown spot off the BYU win, and the fact that starting QB Keyonte Jenkins got hurt in that game and the Knights had to go to their backup QB.

Iowa State has proven it can keep up in shootouts.  The Cyclones beat Oklahoma State 51-49 for 100 combined points and West Virginia 45-42 for 87 combined points.  And Baylor (2nd) actually plays at a faster tempo than both Oklahoma State (13th) and WVU (3rd).  So there will be a ton of possessions in this game, and the Cyclones have one of the more underrated offenses in the Big 12 that can keep up with Baylor in a shootout.  

The OVER is 5-0 in the last five meetings with 55 or more combined points in four of those five meetings.  The forecast looks great for a shootout too with temps in the 60's, light winds and no precipitation.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* CFB Saturday Late-Night BAILOUT on Texas State/Oregon State OVER 71.5

Two dead nuts OVER teams square off tonight when Texas State visits Oregon State in what should be an absolute shootout.  These teams have combined to go 13-3 OVER in all games this season.  Both teams play with pace with Texas State ranking 9th in tempo snapping the ball every 23.5 seconds, while Oregon State ranks 34th snapping the ball every 25 seconds.  There will be a ton of possessions in this game and more opportunities for points as a result.

Texas State averages 38.1 points per game, 506.6 yards per game and 6.8 yards per play on offense.  But the Bobcats have been terrible defensively when stepping up in class.  They just allowed 46 points to Boise State last week, and they also allowed 59 points to a Texas offense that has proven to be terrible this season.  They also allowed 35 points and 565 yards to North Texas.

Oregon State has the best offense that Texas State has seen this season.  The Beavers average 40.1 points per game, 517.6 yards per game and 7.0 yards per play.  QB Braden Atkinson is legit, completing 66.9% of his passes for 2,979 yards with a 25-to-2 TD/INT ratio.  He has the leading receiver in the country in Jesse Legree, who has 53 receptions for 1,110 yard and 14 TD.

Oregon State has a poor defense that has allowed 30-plus points four times this season.  The last two were concerning giving up 30 points and 459 yards to a bad Washington State offense, and following it up by allowing 38 points to another poor Fresno State offense last week.  You can imagine what this high-octane Texas State offense is going to do to them after putting up 45 points on Boise State last week.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Miami/Notre Dame NBC No-Brainer on OVER 57.5

Note: I locked in this play early in the week before the unfortunate news that Miami star WR Malachi Toney (73 receptions, 1,027 yards, 13 TD) suffered an ankle injury in practice on Wednesday that will keep him out until at least the 12-team playoffs.  That's a big blow to the OVER, and at the current number of 54.5 I would downgrade it to a 15* play.

Notre Dame is going to hang a big number on this Miami defense regardless.  The Hurricanes have taken a massive step back defensively this season losing a ton of talent to the NFL, but also losing a ton of talent to injury, especially in the secondary.  In recent weeks Florida State put up 35 points and 443 yards on them, Pitt put up 23 points and 403 yards with a backup QB, and UNC put up 35 points and 407 yards last week.  Notre Dame is scoring 40.4 points per game this season.

Miami does have the best offense in the country scoring 47.6 points per game, averaging 534.9 yards per game and 7.7 yards per play this season.  While I think the Hurricanes can still be potent without Toney, they will be much easier to defend.  Darian Mensah should be the Heisman Trophy winner if the season were to end today.  He is completing 80.7% of his passes for 2,425 yards with a ridiculous 25-to-1 TD/INT ratio while also averaging 10.4 yards per attempt.  The Hurricanes are loaded with playmaking talent, and he'll still thrive against this Notre Dame defense.

A big reason I was on the OVER was the injuries to Notre Dame's defense they suffered last week in the win over Navy.  The big loss is LB Drayk Bowen (45 tackles), the team's leading tackler.  They are also without S Brauntae Johnson, CB DJ McKinney and a couple depth pieces on the DL.  That makes DL Francis Brewu and DL Jason Onye being questionable that much more impactful.

Notre Dame hasn't faced many good offenses.  But BYU put up 28 points on them and Bear Bachmeier threw all over them.  They certainly haven't faced a passing offense nearly as potent as the one they will be up against Saturday night.  This still feels like a back and forth shootout with both offenses having the advantages over both defenses.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.