Jack Jones

15* MLB Saturday Late-Night BAILOUT on Orioles/A's OVER 9.5

Sutter Health Park in Sacramento rivals Coors Field as the most hitter-friendly park in baseball.  The A's are 39-25-3 OVER in all home games this season.  After a rare low-scoring Game 1 last night in a 4-3 victory by the Orioles, I expect runs to be plentiful in Game 2 tonight with this total adjusted down too much.

The Orioles are hot at the plate scoring at least 5 runs in 11 of their last 18 games overall.  They have scored a total of 30 runs in their last four games for an average of 7.5 runs per game.  The A's have scored at least 4 runs in five of their last six games overall.

Baltimore will stay hot against Jack Perkins, who is 3-9 with a 6.68 ERA and 1.48 WHIP in 11 starts and 20 relief appearances this season.  Perkins is 1-5 with a 7.56 ERA and 1.60 WHIP at home, allowing 42 earned runs and 11 homers in 50 innings.  He has allowed 17 earned runs and 5 homers in 13 1/3 innings in his last three starts overall.

Shane Baz is 4-14 with a 4.04 ERA in 26 starts this season, including 1-8 with a 4.25 ERA in 13 road starts.  Baz allowed 5 earned runs in 4 1/3 innings to the A's in his lone start against them this season.  He has allowed 10 runs in 11 2/3 innings in his last two starts against them.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on White Sox/Twins OVER 9

The Minnesota Twins are 76-57-2 OVER in all games this season.  They are scoring 4.6 runs per game and allowing 5.0 runs per game.  The Chicago White Sox are 77-57 OVER in all games this season.  They are scoring 4.8 runs per game and allowing 4.5 runs per game.  This total of 9 is too short tonight with these two potent offenses up against these two suspect starting pitchers.

Erick Fedde is 6-8 with a 4.18 ERA and 1.39 WHIP in 12 starts and 16 relief appearances while allowing 22 homers in 118 1/3 innings.  Fedde is 4-6 with a 4.98 ERA and 1.39 WHIP on the road this season as well.  The White Sox used many of their best relievers last night and won't have them available tonight.

Bailey Ober is 7-4 with a 4.49 ERA and 1.26 WHIP in 20 starts for the Twins this season.  Ober allowed 4 earned runs and 2 homers in 5 innings of a 6-5 loss to the White Sox in his last start against them.  He is backed by an awful Minnesota bullpen with a 4.89 ERA this season.

The OVER is 6-1 in the last seven meetings between the White Sox and Twins.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* NL Central TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Reds/Cubs OVER 9

The forecast will aid us in cashing this OVER 9 ticket between the Cubs and Reds today.  Temps will be in the 80's with 10-15 MPH winds blowing out to left-center.  These teams combined for 18 runs yesterday, and it should be another slug fest today.

The Cubs have one of the best offenses in baseball scoring 5.2 runs per game.  The Cincinnati Reds have one of the worst staffs in baseball allowing 4.9 runs per game.  Both offenses should have their way with these two suspect starting pitchers this afternoon, and this total of 9 is too short as a result.

Andrew Abbott is 6-9 with a 4.09 ERA and 1.40 WHIP in 27 starts for the Reds this season.  He has a 5.40 ERA in his last five starts.  He allowed 4 earned runs in 4 innings of an 8-4 loss to the Cubs in his last start against them on July 12th.  The Cubs also crush left-handed pitching this season.

Kevin Gausman is having one of the worst seasons of his career.  He is 7-11 with a 4.43 ERA in 27 starts this season.  Gausman has never fared well against the Reds, going 1-4 with a 7.89 ERA and 1.58 WHIP in six career starts against them while allowing 26 earned runs and 7 homers in 29 2/3 innings.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

Jack's Free Pick Saturday: Hawaii/Stanford UNDER 48.5

There's a lot to like about this UNDER tonight between Stanford and Hawaii.  Not the least of which is this being a rematch from last year's 23-20 win by Hawaii in Week 0, so both teams are familiar with one another.  Familiarity favors low-scoring games.

Hawaii went 9-4 last season and were led by a defense that only allowed 24.1 points per game.  While the offense had some nice pieces at QB and WR, the Rainbow Warriors scored just 29.0 points per game last season.  They have QB Micah Alejado back for his sophomore season, but he won't have nearly as much talent around him in Week 0 as he did last season.

Alejado won't have his top four receivers from last year, his leading rusher, and three starting offensive lineman.  The loss of WR Jackson Harris (963 yards, 12 TD) wouldn't have been as big if Pofele Ashlock (827 yards, 8 TD) was healthy to start the season.  But he's not and will be sitting out Week 0.  I expect their offense to take a bigger step back this season than their defense will.

Stanford went 4-8 last season with one of the worst offenses in the country.  The Cardinal managed just 18.8 points per game last season, and it has not topped 22.8 points per game in any of the past five seasons.  They hired former Stanford QB Tavita Pritchard to try and resurrect the program.

Pritchard is putting his hopes in Michigan transfer Davis Warren at QB.  He was a disaster for the Wolverines, and the Cardinal have one of the worst QB situations in the country.  They will rely on ground and pound with RB Micah Ford and a strong offensive line.  Each of the top three receivers departed from last season, so there will be some serious growing pains early in the passing game.

Stanford does have a respectable defense that allowed 29.2 points per game and brings back seven starters from that unit.  The Cardinal should be strong at all three levels and rely on defense and their running game to try and be competitive this season.  This game screams UNDER with all the questions on offense for both teams.  It should be similar to the 23-20 meeting last year that saw 43 combined points.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

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Jack Jones has SIX Top-10 MLB Finishes (#4 2024, #8 2023, #5 2019, #6 2014, #6 2010, #4 2009) to his credit! He finished as the No. 8 Ranked MLB Capper in 2023 with his $1,000/game players up $21,110 in 2023! He backed it up by finishing as the No. 4 Ranked MLB Capper in 2024 with $1,000/game players up $34,230!

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20* Memphis/UNLV FOX Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 56

Dan Mullen is an offensive-minded coach and that was certainly on display in his first season at UNLV last year.  The Rebels went 10-4 led by an offense that averaged 34.1 points per game and 446 yards per game.  They had a poor defense that allowed 28.0 points per game and 419 yards per game.

While the offense loses some pieces, I think it will be just as explosive thanks to the addition of Auburn transfer Jackson Arnold.  He was the 5th-ranked QB recruit in the country coming out of High School.  The competition was stiff in the SEC as he made 8 starts for the Tigers last season.  It will feel like a cake walk for Arnold with the competition he will face at UNLV in the Mountain West, starting with Memphis in this non-conference game.

This UNLV defense will be terrible again.  The Rebels lose seven of their top eight tacklers and return just three starts on defense.  They will be relying on an offense with an explosive running game with the dual-threat Arnold plus the return of RB Ja'Den Thomas (985 yards, 12 TD, 7.2/carry last season).  The offensive line will be a strength with the return of LT Will Thomas, C Austin Boyd, and bringing in talented Pitt and Baylor transfers.

Memphis always has a high-octane offense and that won't change with new head coach Charlie Huff.  The Tigers have scored at least 32.5 points per game in four consecutive seasons.  Huff brings in some talented transfers including QB Marcus Stokes, the Gulf South Conference Offensive Player of the Year at West Florida last season where he threw for 3,297 yards and 30 TD while also rushing for 367 yards and 10 scores.  Huff added a ton of talent at receiver with UNC, NC State and Mississippi State transfers.  They add in 6 full-time starters along the offensive line and 90 career starts between them.

Memphis was also solid defensively the last couple seasons but will take a step back this season.  That's because they lose all 11 starters on defense and each of their top 15 tacklers!  No question Huff has added some solid transfers on D including 4 with him from Southern Miss, but I think there will be some serious growing pains on this side of the ball early in the season.

UNLV plays on a fast track in the dome at Allegiant Stadium.  UNLV's six home games last season averaged a combined 66.5 points per game.  This total of 56 is too short tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Bears/Titans NFLX ANNIHILATOR on OVER 36.5

No analysis for preseason.