Jack Jones

Jack's Free Pick Tuesday: Houston Astros +113

Peter Lamber has been solid this season for the Houston Astros.  He is 6-4 with a 3.23 ERA and 1.11 WHIP in 11 starts while allowing 23 earned runs and 6 homers in 64 innings with 58 K's.  He has been at his best on the road with a 2.91 ERA in four starts away from home.

Shane Bieber will be making his first start of 2026 for the Toronto Blue Jays as he returns from injury.  He has struggled in the minors allowing 13 earned runs, 4 homers and 32 base runners in 17 innings for a 6.88 ERA across five minor league starts.

This line just seems out of whack with Bieber and the Blue Jays favored in his first start of the season with how much he has struggled in the minors.  Lambert is a proven commodity at this point, and he is backed by the better offense in this matchup as well.  Bet the Astros Tuesday.

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15* MLB Tuesday Night Line Mistake on Mariners/Pirates OVER 8.5

The forecast will aid us in cashing this OVER 8.5 ticket between the Mariners and Pirates tonight.  Temps will be in the 70's with 10-15 MPH winds blowing out to right field.  The Pirates have one of the most improved offenses in baseball this season scoring 5.01 runs per game and allowing 4.8 runs per game, going 45-31-2 OVER in all games.

The Mariners have been a much more potent offense on the road this season.  Indeed, the Mariners are 10-3-1 OVER in their last 14 road games while going for 9 or more combined runs in 12 of those 14 games.  They have scored at least 3 runs in 12 of those 14 road games as well.  This total of 8.5 is too short tonight.

George Kirby comes in struggling with a 6.27 ERA in his last six starts while allowing 23 earned runs and 5 homers in 33 innings.  He is 2-1 with a 4.76 ERA in three career starts against Pittsburgh while allowing 9 earned runs and 5 homers in 17 innings.

Mitch Keller also comes in struggling allowing 19 earned runs in 18 innings in his last four starts for a 9.50 ERA.  He is 1-1 with a 6.55 ERA in two career starts against the Mariners, allowing 8 earned runs and 2 homers in 11 innings.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* Interleague PLAY OF THE DAY on Dodgers/Twins OVER 8.5

The Minnesota Twins are a dead nuts OVER team.  They have gone 50-29-1 OVER in all games this season scoring 4.9 runs per game and allowing 5.1 runs per game.  They have gone 18-7-1 OVER in their last 26 games overall finishing with 9 or more combined runs in 17 of their last 23 games, and 10 or more in 16 of them.

The Los Angeles Dodgers have one of the best offenses in baseball scoring 5.2 runs per game this season.  They have been much more potent offensively on the road this season, too.  And their games have been higher scoring on the road on average than at home.

Justin Wrobleski is fortunate to have a 2.72 ERA this season when you consider he is a soft tosser with just 50 K's in 79 1/3 innings.  The red hot Twins should get to him today and force that regression that Wrobleski is undoubtably due for.

Kendry Rojas will be making just his 2nd start of the season for the Twins and won't last long as he has mostly been used in long relief.  Rojas was forced into action due to Joe Ryan being scratched with an illness.  He is backed by a terrible Minnesota bullpen with a 5.17 ERA this season.  This total of 8.5 is too short tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* Brewers/Reds NL Central ANNIHILATOR on OVER 9.5

The forecast will aid us in cashing this OVER 9.5 ticket between the Brewers and Reds tonight.  Temps will be in the 70's with light winds blowing out to center at hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati.

The Brewers have one of the best offenses in baseball scoring 5.3 runs per game this season.  They get to face one of the worst starters in baseball in Nick Lodolo, who is 2-2 with a 6.12 ERA and 1.57 WHIP in eight starts this season while allowing 29 earned runs and 8 homers in 42 2/3 innings.  The Reds have a 4.79 ERA as a bullpen as well.

Cincinnati has proven to have a deep, potent lineup as well.  The Reds have a great chance to get to Brandon Sproat, who is the weakest link in Milwaukee's rotation.  Sproat is 1-4 with a 5.94 ERA and 1.46 WHIP in 12 starts and two relief appearances this season.  He has allowed 42 earned runs and 13 homers in 63 2/3 innings.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* NL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Cubs/Mets OVER 8

I trust both of these offenses to get to these two struggling starting pitchers tonight.  Kodai Senga is 0-5 with a 9.00 ERA and 1.88 WHIP in six starts for the mets this season allowing 24 earned runs, 7 homers and 45 base runners in 24 innings.  He will be on a pitch count again tonight after making his 2nd start back from injury.  He allowed 4 earned runs and 2 homers in 4 innings to the Reds in his last start.  He allowed 6 earned runs and 2 homers in 3 1/3 innings of a 12-4 loss to the Cubs in his last start against them.

Edward Cabrera is 4-4 with a 5.21 ERA and 1.40 WHIP in 13 starts for the Cubs this season allowing 39 earned runs and 14 homers in 67 1/3 innings.  Cabrera is 3-2 with a 5.01 ERA and 1.69 WHIP in 11 career starts against the Mets.  That includes 0-2 with a 7.90 ERA and 1.98 WHIP in four career starts at Citi Field, allowing 12 earned runs and 5 homers in 13 2/3 innings.

The Cubs are heating up at the plate scoring 5 runs or more in seven of their last nine games overall.  They have scored a total of 30 runs in their last three games.  The Mets are 6-2-3 OVER in their last 11 games overall finishing with 9 or more combined runs in eight of those 11 games.  The OVER is 6-2-1 in the last nine meetings with 9 or more combined runs in six of them.  This total of 8 is too short tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* MLB Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Phillies/Nationals OVER 8.5

The Washington Nationals are a dead nuts OVER team.  They are 46-30-3 OVER in all games this season scoring 5.3 runs per game and allowing 5.1 runs per game.  The Phillies are hot at the plate scoring 4 runs or more in six of their last seven games overall and have gone for 10 or more combined runs in four of their last six.

Jesus Luzardo is one of the most overrated starters in baseball.  He is 6-4 with a 4.31 ERA and 1.31 WHIP in 15 starts for the Phillies this season.  Luzardo does not enjoy facing the Nationals, going 2-4 with a 4.98 ERA and 1.49 WHIP in nine career starts against them.

Zack Littell will get the bulk of the innings for the Nationals tonight.  He has been one of the worst starters in baseball, going 6-6 with a 5.45 ERA in 15 games while allowing 50 earned runs and 20 homers in 71 innings.  He is 1-1 with a 5.40 ERA while allowing 7 earned runs and 2 homers in 11 2/3 innings in his career against Philadelphia.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.