Jack Jones

Jack's Free Pick Saturday: Chicago Cubs +123

The Chicago Cubs are really raking at the plate right now during their 11-1 run in their last 12 games.  They have scored 6 runs or more in nine of those 12 games, including 7 runs or more eight times.  I'll ride the red hot Cubs as underdogs here as they go for their 11th consecutive victory.

The Cubs have the clear advantage on the mound.  Colin Rea is 3-0 with a 3.00 ERA and 1.04 WHIP this season allowing just 8 earned runs in 24 innings.  He is backed by a Chicago bullpen that ranks 9th with a 3.46 ERA.

Roki Sasaki is 0-2 with a 6.11 ERA and 1.87 WHIP in four starts for the Dodgers this season.  He has allowed 12 earned runs, 4 homers and 33 base runners in 17 2/3 innings.  He is backed by a Dodgers bullpen that has posted a 4.27 ERA this season.  Bet the Cubs Saturday.

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15* MLB Saturday Night Line Mistake on Tigers/Reds OVER 9

These are two red hot lineups that should feast at hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati again today.  The Reds beat the Tigers 9-8 in Game 1 yesterday for 17 combined runs, and it should be another slug fest today.

The Tigers are 5-1 OVER in their last six games overall with 9 or more combined runs in four of their last five.  They have scored at least 4 runs in seven consecutive games coming into this one.

The Reds are 4-2 OVER in their last six games overall.  They have scored 5 runs or more in five of their last six games.

Jack Flaherty is washed up and fortunate to have a 3.47 ERA with a 1.59 WHIP this season.  Flaherty has allowed a whopping 11 earned runs and 3 homers in 9 2/3 innings in his last two starts against the Reds.

Brady Singer is 1-1 with a 5.32 ERA and 1.65 WHIP in five starts for the Reds this season, allowing 14 earned runs and 39 base runners in 23 2/3 innings.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* AL Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Yankees/Astros OVER 9

The Houston Astros are a dead nuts OVER team going 19-8 OVER in all games this season.  They are scoring 5.2 runs per game and allowing 60 runs per game.  The Astros are 6-1 OVER in their last seven games overall with 11 or more combined runs in six of those seven games against the light-hitting Cardinals and Guardians.

Now they must face the offensive juggernaut in the New York Yankees who are scoring 5.2 runs per game this season.  And the Yankees are clearly capable of coming close to covering this total on their own just as they did yesterday in a 12-4 victory over the Astros and 16 combined runs.

Michael Burrows is 1-3 with a 6.75 ERA and 1.69 WHIP in five starts for the Astros this season.  He has allowed 20 earned runs and 5 homers in 26 2/3 innings.  He is backed by one of the worst bullpen in baseball with a 5.94 ERA on the season.

Ryan Weathers is 1-2 with a 3.18 ERA in five starts for the Yankees allowing 10 earned runs and 4 homers in 28 1/3 innings.  The OVER is 5-1-1 in the last seven meetings with 8 or more combined runs in all seven meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* MLB Saturday Afternoon Line Mistake on Twins/Rays OVER 8

Two dead nuts OVER teams square off today and this total of 8 is too short.  The Rays are 17-8 OVER in all games this season, while the Twins are 16-10 OVER in all games.  The Rays are scoring 4.9 runs per game and allowing 5.2 runs per game, while the Twins are scoring 5.0 runs per game and allowing 4.7 runs per game.

Shane McClanahan is 1-2 with a 5.00 ERA in four starts this season allowing 10 earned runs in 18 innings as he works his way back from injury.  He is backed by a terrible Tampa Bay bullpen that has posted a 5.56 ERA this season.

Bailey Ober is 2-0 with a 4.15 ERA in five starts for the Twins this season.  He is backed by a Minnesota bullpen that has posted a poor 4.75 ERA.  Ober is 0-1 with a 5.79 ERA in two career starts against the Rays.  McClanahan is 1-1 with a 4.36 ERA in two career starts against the Twins. 

The OVER is 5-1 in the last six meetings between the Twins and Rays with 8 or more combined runs in five of those six meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* MLB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Nationals/White Sox OVER 8

The Washington Nationals are a dead nuts OVER team going 18-8-1 OVER in all games this season with 9 or more combined runs in 22 of those 27 games.  This total of 9 is actually too short for a game involving the Nationals right now.

The Nationals have one of the best lineups in baseball hitting .249 and scoring 5.5 runs per game.  But they have one of the worst staffs and bullpens in baseball.  Their bullpen has a 5.56 ERA this season.  It's a big reason Washington is allowing 6.2 runs per game.

The White Sox are a dead nuts OVER team going 8-3 OVER in their last 11 games overall with 11 or more combined runs in eight of those 11 games.  That includes 16 and 18 combined runs with the Diamondbacks in two of their last three games.  This total of 8 is too short for a game involving the White Sox right now.

Jake Irvin is 1-3 with a 6.00 ERA in five starts this season and one of the worst starters in baseball.  Rookie Noah Shultz is 1-1 with a 3.86 ERA in two starts for the White Sox.  He is backed by a terrible Chicago bullpen that has posted a 5.40 ERA this season.

The forecast will aid us in cashing this OVER 8 ticket with 20 MPH winds blowing out to right-center that will certainly increase HR chances in that direction.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Knicks/Hawks NBC No-Brainer on New York -2

The New York Knicks are very close to being up 3-0 in this series.  Instead, they have lost two straight 1-point games to the Hawks and trail 2-1.  Now they will be playing with desperation in Game 4, and I trust this veteran team to show up in a big way and get the win and cover today.

Playoff road teams off a 1-point loss have gone 17-6 ATS since 2011, including 7-2 ATS when favored.  I think it's promising that the Knicks shot 28.6% from 3 in Game 3 while the Hawks shot 39.4% yet the Knicks only lost by 1.  They are due some positive shooting regression in Game 4 today.  Bet the Knicks Saturday.

20* Pistons/Magic Game 3 Early ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 214.5

Both the Pistons and Magic are big, physical defensive-minded teams.  Both lack the shooting needed to make a deep postseason run.  That makes this a great matchup for UNDERS.

The Magic are 6-0 UNDER in their last six games overall and have been in playoff mode in all six games.  They went for 206 combined points with the 76ers in the play-in and 211 combined points with the Hornets in the play-in before going for 213 combined points with the Pistons in Game 1 of this series.

Game 2 saw the Pistons bounce back with a 98-83 win and 181 combined points in a dominant defensive effort.  The books have been way off with the totals in this series, and they are off again here setting Game 3 at 214.5.  These teams will struggle to get to 200 combined points today.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* Thunder/Suns NBC No-Brainer on Phoenix +9.5

The Phoenix Suns showed they could hang in Game 2 with a 120-107 loss as 16.5-point road dogs.  They really made some headway once Jalen Williams (17.3 PPG, 5.5 APG) exited with an injury that will now keep him out for multiple weeks.  Their best shooter in Isaiah Joe (11.0 PPG, 42% 3-pointers) is also doubtful today.

The Thunder are a deep team and dealt with injuries all season, but these two injuries are not being factored into this line enough.  Neither is the desperation the Suns will be playing with today trying to get back in this series.  This is the best spot to back the Suns in this series.

The Thunder were terrible on the road in the playoffs last season and that will continue today.  Home teams in the playoffs off a loss have been a great bet this year, too.  The spot really favors the Suns today.  Bet the Suns Saturday.