Jack Jones

Jack's Free Pick Saturday: Dodgers/Yankees OVER 9

Rust was a factor offensively coming out of the All-Star Break for both teams in Game 1 of this series.  I fully expect the bats to get going in Game 2 tonight given the forecast, which is calling for double-digit wins blowing out to left at Yankee Stadium.

Emmet Sheehan has been a weak link in this Los Angeles rotation.  He is 4-6 with a 4.81 ERA in 17 starts, including 2-3 with a 5.05 ERA in seven road starts where he has allowed 20 earned runs and 9 homers in 35 2/3 innings away from home.

Ryan Weathers is 3-7 with a 4.15 ERA in 18 starts this season while allowing 45 earned runs and 16 homers in 97 2/3 innings.  He does not enjoy facing the Dodgers, going 0-3 with a 5.40 ERA in six career starts against them.  Weathers has allowed 12 earned runs and 5 homers in 16 innings in his last three starts against Los Angeles.  

The Dodgers are scoring 5.2 runs per game this season with one of the best offenses in baseball.  The Yankees are scoring 4.8 runs per game this season.  They have managed to get the bats going even without Aaron Judge of late, scoring 4 runs or more in eight of their last 11 games.  The OVER is 5-1 in the last six meetings between the Yankees and Dodgers with 10 or more combined runs in five of them.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

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15* MLB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Chicago White Sox +102

The White Sox are scoring 4.9 runs per game despite playing much of the first half of the season without their best hitter.  But Munetaka Murakami (20 HR) returned right before the All-Star Break, and the White Sox have had one of the most potent offenses in baseball since his return.  They have scored a combined 36 runs in their last four games for an average of 9.0 runs per game.

This Toronto offense has been disappointing all season scoring just 4.1 runs per game.  It won't get much easier today against Davis Martin, who is 9-4 with a 3.41 ERA in 18 starts for the White Sox this season.  Martin fired 6 shutout innings in a 3-0 victory over the Blue Jays earlier this season in his only career start against them.

Shane Bieber is washed and he is one of the worst starters in baseball this season.  Bieber is 0-1 with a 7.64 ERA and 2.04 WHIP in four starts, allowing 15 earned runs, 7 homers and 36 base runners in 17 2/3 innings.  He allowed 6 runs, 5 earned, and 12 hits in 4 2/3 innings of a 8-3 loss to the White Sox in his last start against them.

The White Sox are now 5-0 in their last five meetings with the Blue Jays including a 12-4 victory in Game 1 of this series.  It will be more of the same today, and the wrong team is favored here.  Bet the White Sox Saturday.

15* MLB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on White Sox/Blue Jays OVER 8.5

The White Sox are scoring 4.9 runs per game despite playing much of the first half of the season without their best hitter.  But Munetaka Murakami (20 HR) returned right before the All-Star Break, and the White Sox have had one of the most potent offenses in baseball since his return.  They have scored a combined 36 runs in their last four games for an average of 9.0 runs per game.

The Blue Jays went into the All-Star Break swinging the bats very well scoring 4 runs or more in five consecutive games.  They made its six in a row in their 12-4 loss to the White Sox in Game 1 of this series.  They are 6-1 OVER in their last seven games overall with 9 or more combined runs in six of them.  This total of 8.5 is too short again today after combining for 16 runs in Game 1.

Davis Martin has been at his worst on the road this season.  He is 4-3 with a 4.72 ERA and 1.48 WHIP in 10 road starts.  But he has been much better than Shane Bieber, who is one of the worst starters in baseball this season.  Bieber is 0-1 with a 7.64 ERA and 2.04 WHIP in four starts, allowing 15 earned runs, 7 homers and 36 base runners in 17 2/3 innings.  He allowed 6 runs, 5 earned, and 12 hits in 4 2/3 innings of a 8-3 loss to the White Sox in his last start against them.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* MLB Saturday Late-Night BAILOUT on Washington Nationals +111

The Washington Nationals come out of the All-Star Break motivated after opening 49-49 this season and 3 games back in the wild card.  They have been the best bet on the road in baseball by a wide margin going 29-18 on the highway.  

The Nationals are led by one of the best offenses in the league scoring 5.5 runs per game this season.  That offense exploded in Game 1 with a 23-4 victory over the A's.  I expect more of the same in Game 2, and the wrong team is favored here.

The A's are in the midst of a 10-game losing streak to fall completely out of contention at 41-55 on the season.  Injuries offensively have been the big story as the A's have been held to 2 runs or fewer in seven of their last nine games overall.  They just don't have the firepower to match the Nationals in this one.

Zack Littell has inflated numbers due to a poor start to the season.  But Littell has been much better since, allowing 2 earned runs or fewer in nine of his last 11 appearances.  He fired 7 innings without allowing an earned run in his lone career start against the A's.

Like most of these A's starters, J.T. Ginn has been at his worst at home.  He has posted a 3.94 ERA and 1.58 WHIP at home this season, allowing 21 earned runs and 76 base runners in 48 innings.  He is backed by one of the worst bullpens in baseball with the A's having a 5.55 ERA on the season and a 7.08 ERA at home.  Bet the Nationals Saturday.

20* MLB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Detroit Tigers -1.5 (-114)

The Detroit Tigers are 10-3 in their last 13 games overall to get back in contention in the AL Central.  They are only 6.5 games behind the White Sox, and they believe they can catch them.  The Tigers are the best team in this division in my opinion and one of the most underrated teams in baseball with a +25 run differential despite being seven games below .500.

The Angels are 2-11 in their last 13 games overall to fall to 38-60 on the season with the worst record in the American League.  They will struggle to be motivated the rest of the way.  That's especially the case now after blowing a 1-0 lead in the 9th inning to lose 2-1 to the Tigers in Game 1 of this series yesterday.

The Tigers have a big advantage on the mound tonight behind ace Tarik Skubal, who now looks back to full strength after an injury-plagued 2026 campaign thus far.  He has still managed to go 5-5 with a 3.09 ERA and 0.95 WHIP in 13 starts this season, including 3-3 with a 2.40 ERA and 0.90 WHIP in seven road starts.  Skubal is 1-0 with a 1.38 ERA and 0.54 WHIP in two career road starts at Los Angeles, alowing 2 earned runs in 13 innings with 17 K's in a pair of blowout victories for the Tigers by 9 and 8 runs.

Grayson Rodriquez has been one of the worst starters in baseball this season going 3-2 with a 7.84 ERA and 1.77 WHIP in seven starts.  Rodriquez has been particularly poor at home, going 1-2 with a 10.02 ERA and 2.13 WHIP in five home starts while allowing 23 earned runs in 20 2/3 innings.  Bet the Tigers on the Run Line Saturday.

20* MLB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Rays/Red Sox OVER 9.5

The forecast will aid us in cashing this OVER 9.5 ticket between the Rays and Red Sox today.  Temps will be in the 70's with 20 MPH winds blowing out to left-center throughout the entirety of the game.  The ball should be flying out at Fenway Park today.

The Rays have a potent offense scoring 4.5 runs per game this season despite playing at a pitcher-friendly park.  The Red Sox are red hot at the plate during their current 11-game winning streak.  They have scored at least 5 runs in eight of their 11 wins.  They have scored 4 runs or more in 18 of their last 22 games.  

Both bullpens are taxed today after a double-header yesterday.  That puts a lot of pressure on two starters who aren't known for going deep into games.  Ian Seymour has been used as an opener and in relief this season.  He is 6-2 with a 4.59 ERA overall and 3-0 with a 5.87 ERA on the road, allowing 15 earned runs in 23 innings away from home.

Patrick Sandoval will be making just his 2nd start of the season and just his 2nd start over the last two seasons after sitting out all of 2025.  No question he's going to be on a pitch count.  Sandoval is 0-2 with a 4.61 ERA and 1.61 WHIP in three career home starts against Tampa Bay.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.