Jack Jones

15* MLB Wednesday Early ANNIHILATOR on Yankees/Orioles OVER 8.5

The forecast will aid us in cashing this OVER 8.5 ticket between the Yankees and Orioles this afternoon.  Temps will be in the 70's with 15-20 MPH winds blowing out to left-center in Baltimore.  Runs should be plentiful as a result.

Max Fried has come back down to reality of late allowing 8 earned runs and 18 base runners in 11 1/3 innings in his last two starts.  One of those starts came against the Orioles on May 3rd when he allowed 3 earned runs and 9 base runners in 5 1/3 innings.  The Orioles will have the advantage getting to see him again only 10 days later.

Kyle Bradish is 1-5 with a 5.27 ERA and 1.68 WHIP in eight starts for the Orioles this season.  He has allowed 24 earned runs and 69 base runners in 41 innings.  Bradish just allowed 5 earned runs and 2 homers in 4 innings of a 9-4 loss to the Yankees on May 2nd less than two weeks ago. Getting to see him again in such a short time is an advantage to New York hitters, too.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

Jack's Free Pick Wednesday: Mariners/Astros OVER 9

The Houston Astros really profile as an OVER team this season.  They have gone 27-15-1 OVER in all games while scoring 4.6 runs per game and allowing 5.7 runs per game.  They have the worst bullpen in baseball with a 6.02 ERA this season.

The Mariners scored 10 runs on Houston yesterday and should stay hot today.  Lance McCullers has been one of the worst starters in baseball this season.  He is 2-3 with a 7.41 ERA in seven starts, allowing 28 earned runs in 34 innings.  McCullers has allowed 10 earned runs in 7 innings in his last two starts against Seattle.

Bryce Miller will be making his first start of the season for the Mariners and will be on a pitch count.  Miller went 5-6 with a 5.25 ERA in 21 starts last season, allowing 61 earned runs and 18 homers in 104 2/3 innings.  The Astros should get their bats going tonight as well.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

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20* Cavs/Pistons Game 5 No-Brainer on Detroit -3.5

Home teams are a perfect 11-0 SU & 10-1 ATS in all Cleveland home games in these playoffs.  The Cavs have been a terrible road team for months.  They have covered the spread just 3 times on the road since the All-Star Break, and those came against the tanking Grizzlies, Mavs & Pelicans.

The Cavs went 30-of-34 from the FT line while the Pistons went 9-of-12 from the FT line in Game 4 which was the difference.  After a favorable whistle for the Cavs in Cleveland, I expect the Pistons to get the benefit of the whistle in Detroit tonight.  They will be able to get away with playing with their usual physicality at home.

The Pistons won each of the first two games at home in this series by double-digits.  They were identical 3.5-point favorites in both of those games.  Oddsmakers continue to fail to adjust for just how much home-court advantage means in these Cleveland games.  Bet the Pistons Wednesday.

20* MLB Wednesday Night Line Mistake on Tigers/Mets OVER 8

The forecast will aid us in cashing this OVER 8 ticket between the Tigers and Mets tonight.  There will be 15-20 MPH winds blowing out to left at Citi Field.  It was a similar forecast when these teams combined for 12 runs last night.

Framber Valdez is 2-2 with a 4.57 ERA and 1.39 WHIP in eight starts for the Tigers this season.  He returns from suspension after allowing 10 runs, 7 earned, and 3 homers in 3 innings of a 10-3 loss to the Red Sox in his last start.

Christian Scott is 0-0 with a 3.27 ERA and 1.18 WHIP in three starts this season.  But he has pitched just 11 innings in those three starts and will not go deep in this game, which will expose this New York bullpen.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* MLB Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Phillies/Red Sox OVER 9

The forecast will aid us in cashing this OVER 9 ticket between the Phillies and Red Sox tonight.  Temps will be in the 60's with 15 MPH winds blowing out to left field.  Both offenses will get their bats going tonight after a low-scoring Game 1.

The Phillies have scored at least 6 runs in 11 of their last 18 games overall.  They should stay hot against Sonny Gray, who is 3-1 with a 3.54 ERA in six starts this season.  Gray hates facing the Phillies, allowing 11 earned runs and 3 homers in 8 2/3 innings in his last two starts against them.

Andrew Painter is the weakest link in this Philadelphia rotation.  He is 1-4 with a 6.89 ERA and 1.71 WHIP in seven appearances this season, including six starts.  He has allowed 25 earned runs, 6 homers and 56 base runners in 32 2/3 innings.  He just allowed 8 earned runs and 3 homers to the A's in his last start.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

25* NL Pre All-Star Break TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Nationals/Reds OVER 9

The forecast will aid us in cashing this OVER 9 ticket between the Nationals and Reds tonight.  Temps will be in the 60's with 15 MPH winds blowing out to center at hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park.  These teams combined for 14 runs, 6 homers and 23 hits yesterday and it should be more of the same today.

The Nationals are a dead nuts OVER team going 26-14-2 OVER in all games this season.  They are scoring 5.4 runs per game and allowing 5.6 runs per game this season.  The Reds are 25-16-1 OVER in all games this season as well.  Both teams have terrible bullpens with the Nationals having a 4.89 ERA and the Reds a 4.70 ERA.

Jake Irvin is 1-4 with a 5.22 ERA and 1.36 WHIP in eight starts this season.  Irvin has allowed 23 earned runs in 39 2/3 innings.  Irvin allowed 5 earned runs in 3 2/3 innings of a 10-8 win over the Reds in his last start against them.  He is 0-1 with a 5.54 ERA in five career starts against Cincinnati.

Nick Lodolo is 0-1 with a 6.75 ERA in one start this season as he works his way back from injury.  He allowed 4 earned runs and 2 homers in 5 1/3 innings to the Astros.  He allowed 6 earned runs and 12 base runners in 5 1/3 innings in a 11-6 loss in his lone home start against the Nationals last season.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* MLB Wednesday Late-Night BAILOUT on Cardinals/A's OVER 9.5

Sutter Health Park in Sacramento is one of the most hitter-friendly parks in the majors.  The forecast will aid us in cashing this OVER 9.5 ticket between the Cardinals and A's tonight.  Temps will be in the 80's with light winds blowing out to center at Sutter Health Park.  It was a similar forecast last night when these teams combined for 10 runs.

Matthew Liberatore is 2-1 with a 4.07 ERA and 1.43 WHIP in eight starts this season.  He has allowed 19 earned runs, 8 homers and 60 base runners in 42 innings.  He has allowed 5 earned runs and 18 base runners in 9 2/3 innings in two career starts against the A's.  He's backed by a terrible St. Louis bullpen with a 4.59 ERA this season.

JT Ginn has huge home/road splits as do many A's pitchers.  Ginn is 0-1 with a 7.62 ERA and 1.69 WHIP at home this season, allowing 11 earned runs and 22 base runners in 13 innings.  He is backed by an even worse A's bullpen with a 4.67 ERA this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.