Jack Jones

15* NBA Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Warriors/Suns UNDER 222.5

The Golden State Warriors really profile as an UNDER team.  They were already without Butler and Porzingis, and now they will be without Curry and Podziemski tonight on the 2nd of a back-to-back. And their other three starters in Lendeborg, Santos and Green are all good defenders with offensive deficiencies.  Payton II and Horford coming off the bunch fit similar profiles.

The Warriors faced one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA in the opener in the Lakers and managed just 105 points in a 127-105 defeat.  The Lakers shot 56.8% from the field and still only scored 127 on them, largely due to the slower pace.  The Warriors no longer can play with such pace, especially with a short-handed lineup due to injuries.

The Warriors went ice cold late in the game last night and allowed the Grizzlies to come back and beat them, 111-108. That game finished with just 219 combined points against a Grizzlies team that likes to push the tempo.

The Warriors are going to have to rely on defense to try and be competitive with the Suns, another team that isn't in a hurry and features several good defenders, including Dillon Brooks. The Suns lost 124-83 to the Blazers in their opener in a game that saw just 207 combined points. I expect them to be better offensively in this game, but it will turn into a defensive battle. Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* Rays/Brewers Game 2 ANNIHILATOR on Tampa Bay +107

This feels like a must-win game for the Tampa Bay Rays if they want to make this a series. And there's no starter they'd rather have out there than Drew Rasmussen, arguably the single-most underrated starter in baseball.

Rasmussen is 18-5 with a 2.52 ERA and 0.89 WHIP in 33 starts this season, including 8-2 with a 2.39 ERA and 0.80 WHIP in road games. He has delivered in the postseason, too, going 2-0 with a 1.29 ERA and 0.76 ERA in three playoff starts while allowing just 3 earned runs in 21 innings.

No question Logan Henderson has been solid for the Brewers as well. But he has allowed 6 runs in 9 innings in two postseason starts and hasn't gone deep in either start. He will be pulled early in this one, which will put a lot of pressure on a Milwaukee bullpen that will be taxed after Game 1.

The Brewers used Uribe for 1 1/3 innings, Ashby for 1 2/3 innings and Megill for one inning. But it was very stressful for Megill with traffic on the bases and 20 pitches. He was fortunate to get out unscathed. I like the fact that the Rays now have already seen their best three relievers. And the Rays didn't used their best reliever in Baker last night so he will be fresh and ready to close this game out. Bet the Rays Saturday.

Jack's Free Pick Saturday: Illinois +10

I love the spot for the Illinois Fighting Illini this week. They are coming off their bye week and have had two full weeks to prepare for Oregon. The Ducks have been one of the most overrated teams in the country this season, and they should not be laying double-digits on the road here.

Oregon is 4-2 SU but 2-4 ATS this season. The Ducks got by Boise State by 7 at home as 24.5-point favorites to open the season. That lackluster effort carried over to Week 2 when they were upset by 8 at Oklahoma State as 23.5-point favorites while getting outgained by 273 yards in the process. The win at USC was good, but the last two weeks were concerning. They lost outright as double-digit home favorites to UCLA, and needed to come back from 14-6 down in the 4th quarter to beat Nebraska by 3 as 6.5-point home favorites.

Now the Ducks hit the road after two wars with UCLA and Nebraska that were decided in the final seconds. Their offense is broken without QB Dante Moore, who is out again this week. They are also missing a couple key receivers. Teams have been able to stack the box to stop the run, and the Ducks haven't shown any ability to run the ball with effectiveness outside the 84-0 win over Portland State which has skewed their numbers. Even with those numbers included, the Ducks are averaging just 137.0 rushing yards per game and 4.0 per carry.

Illinois QB Katin Houser suffered a season-ending injury in the win over Michigan State last time out.  Freshman backup Michael Clayton II came in and balled out in his place, throwing a pair of TD passes to lead the Fighting Illini to a 38-37 win over the Spartans.  The Fighting Illini have used the bye week to get Clayton II fully acclimated to the system and to be ready to start.  The bye week came at the perfect time.  I have confidence he'll be ready as he was highly touted coming out of HS and showed already the moment wasn't too big for him.

This Oregon defense is overrated, too.  They allowed 27 points to Boise State, 39 points and 554 yards to Oklahoma State, and 27 points and 446 yards to USC.  Illinois has a very good, balanced offense that is averaging 31.8 points per game and 6.5 yards per play this season.  They average 5.1 yards per carry on the ground and 7.9 yards per attempt through the air.  They even put up 462 yards and 6.5 yards per play against Ohio State to show what they are capable of.

The Fighting Illini parted ways with their defensive coordinator a few weeks ago, and the bye week will also have given them time to tighten up their schemes. They have been good against the run, allowing 126.8 rushing yards per game and 3.8 per carry this season. Their weakness is the secondary, but they will benefit from getting to face Oregon's backup QB, too. This is a game the Fighting Illini can win outright. Bet Illinois Saturday.

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15* CFB Saturday Late-Night BAILOUT on NDSU/New Mexico UNDER 41.5

Two dead nuts UNDER teams square off Saturday night in a crucial game that will likely determine which of these two teams has a chance to win the Mountain West. We have two slow-paced, run-heavy offensive teams up against two of the best defenses in the country that are both great at stopping the run.

Not to mention, the forecast will aid us in cashing this UNDER 41.5 ticket, just above the key number of 41 which could easily come into play. Temps will be in the 50's with a 55% chance of rain throughout and double-digit winds in New Mexico Saturday night.

NDSU averages 41 rush attempts per game compared to 24 pass attempts. The Bison only average 4.3 yards per carry and they rank 125th out of 138 teams in tempo, snapping the ball every 29.5 seconds.

New Mexico plays even slower, ranking 135th in tempo snapping the ball every 31 seconds. The Lobos are even more run-heavy averaging 45 rushing attempts per game compared to 19 pass attempts. They rush for 4.7 yards per carry.

North Dakota State allows just 11.3 points per game, 246 yards per game and 4.5 yards per carry. The Bison are elite against the run, allowing 112.1 rushing yards per game and 3.3 yards per carry.

New Mexico has been even better, allowing 10.5 points per game, 261.8 yards per game and 4.5 yards per play. The Lobos allow just 92 rushing yards per game and 3.0 yards per carry.

North Dakota State is 5-2 UNDER in all games this season finishing with 41 or fewer combined points in five of those seven games. This total of 41.5 is actually pretty high for a game involving the Bison given those results. If not for a blocked FG returned for a TD against Nevada last week, it would be six of seven games at 41 or fewer.

New Mexico is 3-3 UNDER in all games this season. But several of their games have been higher scoring than the numbers showed they should be. This game will play out similarly to their 14-6 loss to Oklahoma, a similar dead nuts under team to NDSU. Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* Pac-12 TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Boise State/Washington State OVER 51.5

The Boise State Broncos are a dead nuts OVER team with an elite offense and suspect defense. The Broncos have gone 5-1 OVER in all games this season while finishing with 55 or more combined points in five of their six games. This total of 51.5 is too short for a game involving the Broncos.

They have played a brutal schedule of opposing defenses but have managed to put up 35.0 points per game, 450.5 yards per game and 6.4 yards per play. They have played a mediocre schedule of opposing defenses and are allowing 6.8 yards per play this season, which ranks 133rd out of 138 teams in the country.

Washington State has faced a brutal schedule of opposing defenses including Washington, K-State, Arizona and Fresno State. The early offensive struggles are a thing of the past since head coach Kenny Moore took over play-calling duties, plus a change at the QB position.

Moore made the switch to freshman QB Owen Eshelman last time out and got what he was looking for. He went 32-of-49 passing for 289 yards and 2 TD, while also rushing for a whopping 136 yards and a score on 15 carries in a 48-30 loss to Oregon State last week. He accounted for 425 of their 459 yards in that game, and his dual-threat ability is precisely what they needed.

Washington State broke in 11 new starters on defense this season as their entire roster left for Iowa State. The Cougars have been subpar defensively to say the least, including giving up 48 points and 555 yards to Oregon State last week. You can imagine what Boise State's elite offense is going to do to them this week.

The forecast looks great for a shootout with temps in the 50's no wind and no rain in Pullman. Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Night Line Mistake on Vanderbilt/Kentucky OVER 51.5

Kentucky has been a dead nuts OVER team with former Oregon offensive coordinator Will Stein as their head coach. We've seen just how much Oregon's offense has dropped off this season without him, and just how much Kentucky's offense has improved with him to show his value.

The Wildcats are 5-2 OVER in all games this season finishing with 52 or more combined points in six of their seven games. This total of 51.5 is too short for a game involving the Wildcats given those numbers.

That's especially the case when you look at their opponent in Vanderbilt, which has also gone 5-2 OVER in all games this season while finishing with 52 or more combined points in five of those seven games. This total of 51.5 is also short for a game involving the Commodores given those numbers.

The Wildcats have a great QB in Kenny Minchey who is completing 68.4% of his passes for 1,552 yards with a 13-to-1 TD/INT ratio. Vanderbilt has one of the top QB recruits in the country in freshman Jared Curtis, who is completing 62.7% of his passes for 1,242 yards and 6 TD, while also rushing for 144 yards and two scores. Curtis is back healthy now.

Both defenses leave a lot to be desired. Vanderbilt is allowing 29.7 points per game while Kentucky is allowing 25.9 points per game. Both offenses should have their way in this game, especially with a forecast perfect for a shootout. Temps will be in the 60's with no wind and no rain in Lexington Saturday night. Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Oregon/Illinois OVER 50.5

This total has been adjusted down too much due to injuries at QB for both teams.  But I expect both backup QB's to have plenty of success in this game to get this to the key number of 51 or higher.  And the forecast looks great for a shootout with temps in the 70's, no wind and no rain.

Oregon has one of the best backup QB situations in the country.  Dylan Raiola showed what he can do against a mediocre defense in USC.  He went 19-of-25 for 289 yards and 2 TD against the Trojans.  Raiola had a nightmare game the next week against UCLA, which remains unbeaten with one of the best defenses in the country.  He got benched for the Nebraska game, but came in late and led the game-winning drive.  I have to think he gets the nod this week, and there's an outside chance starting QB Moore comes back, which is an added bonus.

After two straight low-scoring games against two of the top defenses in the Big Ten in UCLA and Nebraska, Oregon's offense should fly high this week against one of the worst defenses in the conference in Illinois.  The Fighting Illini are allowing 27.8 points per game, 375.2 yards per game and 5.8 yards per play on the season.  They recently allowed 37 points to Michigan State, 31 to Duke and 42 to Ohio State.

Katin Houser suffered a season-ending injury in the win over Michigan State.  Freshman backup Michael Clayton II came in and balled out in his place, throwing a pair of TD passes to lead the Fighting Illini to a 38-37 win over Michigan State.  The Fighting Illini have had a bye week since to get Clayton II fully acclimated to the system and to be ready to start.  The bye week came at the perfect time.  I have confidence he'll be ready as he was highly touted coming out of HS and showed already the moment wasn't too big for him.

This Oregon defense is overrated, too.  They allowed 27 points to Boise State, 39 points and 554 yards to Oklahoma State, and 27 points and 446 yards to USC.  Illinois has a very good, balanced offense that is averaging 31.8 points per game and 6.5 yards per play this season.  They average 5.1 yards per carry on the ground and 7.9 yards per attempt through the air.  They even put up 462 yards and 6.5 yards per play against Ohio State to show what they are capable of.

Oregon ranks 13th in tempo snapping the ball every 23.8 seconds.  That hasn't changed at all even with Raiola in there.  They're going to play fast, and there's going to be a lot of possessions in this game as a result.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* LSU/Auburn SEC ANNIHILATOR on Auburn +7.5

Many are looking at this as a letdown spot for Auburn off the big win over No. 1 Georgia on the road last week.  That's fair, but with a first-year coach in Alex Golesh I don't see it happening.  I look at it as more of a confidence builder after a couple close losses earlier this season.  And a chance to stack another big win against LSU to boost their playoff resume.

Jordan Hare is one of the biggest home-field advantages in the country when Auburn is good.  Fans are excited about this team off the win over Georgia and it will be a raucous atmosphere with Lane Kiffin and LSU coming to town Saturday.  The fans love Golesh as he is one of the best head coaches in the country that not too many know about.  He coaches a fun, up-tempo system that is finding its stride now.

Auburn has a very good defense that can keep them in most games.  The Tigers allow 21.8 points per game, 371 yards per game and 5.1 yards per play this season.  They played Tennessee tough on the road actually outgaining the Vols in their 24-14 road loss.  They had a bye after that defeat and came back and beat Georgia.  They worked on a lot of things on their bye and it clearly paid off with the upset of Georgia.  They should still be very fresh this week.

LSU is getting too much respect for a 31-0 win over Mississippi State last week.  The Bulldogs were without their two best offensive players in star QB Taylor and RB Bothwell.  It wasn't a fair fight.  And it was a misleading final as LSU only outgained Mississippi State by 88 yards.  The Bulldogs just couldn't punch it in when they got in LSU territory five times.

Injuries are becoming a problem for LSU.  They were already without LB Whit Weeks and TE Trey-Dez Green.  And leading WR Jackson Harris (27 receptions, 456 yards, 5 TD) left with an ankle injury after scoring two touchdowns against Mississippi State last week.  He may play this week, but he won't be 100% if he does. Defensively, LSU is likely to be without its best player in DE Princewill Umanmielen (27 tackles, 8 sacks), who suffered a concussion against Mississippi State last week.  That loss is not being factored into this line enough.

It's also alarming how poor LSU has played when away from Death Valley.  Indeed, LSU lost its only two road games at Ole Miss 32-24 and at Kentucky 35-34 (OT).  They were held to 330 yards by Ole Miss and outgained by 96 yards.  They were outgained by 0.1 yards per play by Kentucky, and the Wildcats missed two FG's late.  There was nothing fluky about either loss.  They just aren't as good on the road.  And I still have my questions about Sam Leavitt as a passer as he has padded his stats against some bad defenses.

This is a tired LSU team playing for an 8th consecutive week.  Auburn having the bye two weeks ago is a big rest advantage.  Getting Auburn at +7.5 in a game that will likely be decided by one score either way is a nice value.  Bet Auburn Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Hawaii/Northern Illinois OVER 47.5

Two teams with poor offensive numbers this season square off Saturday in what I expect to be a shootout due to both offenses taking a big step down in class.  Hawaii has played a brutal schedule of opposing defenses, especially of late with its last four games coming against Wyoming, SJSU, ASU and New Mexico.  And they have played some very windy home games that have deflated their numbers.

Northern Illinois has faced Iowa, Arizona, Air Force and Wyoming this season.  But this NIU offense has managed 300 or more yards in four of its last five games and has shown the potential to move the football against much better defenses than Hawaii.  They had 341 yards and 17 points on Arizona, 432 yards on Georgia State and 392 yards on Wyoming.  They are also playing with pace this season ranking 40th in tempo snapping the ball every 25.3 seconds.

Hawaii plays even faster, ranking 26th in tempo snapping the ball every 24.6 seconds.  So there will be a ton of possessions in this game.  The weather looks great for a shootout with temps in the 60's, single-digit winds and no precipitation.  This is the spot where both offenses bust out and score some points.  This will be a relaxed, care-free game between two of the worst teams in the country with a combined 12-1 record.  Defensive intensity will not be high.

Northern Illinois has an atrocious defense.  The Huskies allow 35.7 points per game and 6.4 yards per play this season.  The most alarming performance was in their last game when they allowed 41 points, 510 yards and 8.5 yards per play to Wyoming, which has one of the worst offenses in the country.  Hawaii star QB Micah Alejado is licking his chops at the opportunity to go up against this defense.

Hawaii allows 25.0 points per game, 387.6 yards per game and 6.2 yards per play this season.  The Warriors allowed 37 points and 483 yards to a mediocre Stanford offense.  And they have played four home games that have all been affected by wind to help hold their opponents in check.  Yet they are still allowing 6.2 yards per play this season, which ranks 113th in the country.  NIU's 6.4 yards per play allowed ranks 125th.  Both offenses will get what they want in this one.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Afternoon Line Mistake on UCF +6.5

BYU is in the ultimate letdown spot this week.  The Cougars are coming off their biggest home win in program history beating Notre Dame 28-24 last week.  They are 'fat and happy' now, and this is where teams have their letdown and don't show up on the road the following week against a lesser opponent.

That lesser opponent this week is UCF.  And the Knights are coming off a bye so they have had two full weeks to prepare for BYU.  I think they profile similarly to TCU with an average offense and an underrated defense.  And BYU was life and death with TCU on the road.  With two weeks to prepare for the Cougars, the Knights will put their best foot forward this week.

It's a good time to 'buy low' on UCF off two tough road losses to two of the best teams in the Big 12 in Houston and Oklahoma State.  They were only outgained by 61 yards by Houston, and actually outgained the Cougars by 0.5 yards per play to really go toe-to-toe with them in a misleading 27-17 loss.  They also suffered a misleading 42-28 loss at Oklahoma State where they were only outgained by 39 yards.  To hang with both of those opponents on the road is no small feat.

UCF beat TCU 21-13 at home, again a tam that profile similar to BYU.  They only lost by 5 to Pitt as 7-point road dogs in a defensive battle.  It's clear UCF has one of the best defenses in the Big 12, and that fact gives them a chance to be competitive here.  UCF is allowing just 21.7 points per game, 355.2 yards per game and 5.1 yards per play this season.  They are holding opponents to 11.3 points per game, 83 yards per game and 1.2 yards per play below their season averages.  They have played a brutal schedule of opposing offenses.

I really don't think backup QB Keyone Jenkins is much of a downgrade if one at all to starter Alonza Barnett, who has been ruled out for this game.  Jenkins is completing 70.3% of his passes for 806 yards with a 8-to-3 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 3 scores.  Those are elite numbers, and they have come against their three Big 12 opponents in Houston, TCU and Oklahoma State.  The former FIU starter is good enough to take down BYU with some help from this underrated Knights defense.  Bet UCF Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Early ANNIHILATOR on WVU/TCU OVER 56.5

West Virginia is a dead nuts OVER team under Rich Rodriquez this season.  His teams always play fast, and that is no exception this season as the Mountaineers rank 3rd in tempo this season snapping the ball every 21.7 seconds.  They have a very good offense but one of the worst defenses in the country.  The Mountaineers are a perfect 7-0 OVER in all games this season finishing with 65 or more combined points in five straight coming in.  This total of 56.5 is too low for a game involving West Virginia.

The Mountaineers are scoring 37.6 points per game, averaging 497.1 yards per game and 6.4 yards per play this season.  But their defense has been atrocious, allowing 34.0 points per game, 483.9 yards per game and 7.2 yards per play.  It has been particularly poor the last four weeks allowing 41 points and 609 yards to Oklahoma State, 45 points and 577 yards to Iowa State, 52 points and 482 yards to Arizona and 42 points and 622 yards to Cincinnati.

You can tell this is a tired WVU defense playing for an 8th consecutive week while having to be on the field the majority of the time.  Injuries are starting to take their toll, too, and even this poor TCU offense is in line for one of its best games of the season.  I also think TCU's offensive numbers are down this season due to a brutal schedule of opposing defenses, including UCF, BYU and Baylor in its last three games, as well as UNC in the opener.

We've seen what TCU's offense is capable of scoring 63 points on Grambling State and 31 on Arkansas State.  I think TCU easily gets into the 30's in this game.  And it's not like their numbers are bad despite the tough schedule as they average 392.3 yards per game and 5.9 per play on offense, which is 32 yards per game and 0.5 per play better than their opponents allow on average.

And just like TCU's offensive numbers are deflated due to a tough schedule of opposing defenses, the TCU defensive numbers are also better than they should be because they have faced one of the weakest schedules of opposing offenses in the country.  They also played UNC and BYU in sloppy, windy weather.  That won't be the case the the forecast looking perfect for a shootout with temps in the 70's, no precipitation and single-digit winds.  This WVU offense will be far and away the best unit TCU has faced this season.  The Mountaineers will get their points like they always do with Rich Rod, but they'll give up a ton as well.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Big 12 TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Colorado/Oklahoma State OVER 55.5

The Oklahoma State Cowboys are a dead nuts OVER team with a thriving offense.  In their last four games they put up 39 points and 554 yards on Oregon, 59 points and 662 yards on Murray State, 41 points and 609 yards on West Virginia, 42 points and 414 yards on UCF and 32 points and 499 yards on Houston.  They have gone 4-1 OVER in those five games with 59 or more combined points in all five.  This total of 55.5 is too short for a game involving the Cowboys.

Eric Morris brought his up-tempo offense from North Texas with him and the Cowboys rank 22nd in tempo this season, snapping the ball every 24.4 seconds.  They combined for 70 points with Oregon, 65 with WVU, 70 with UCF and 67 with Houston.  They are going to be in a shootout with Colorado this week as well.  Their defense is a problem allowing 35 points and 505 yards to Houston and 24 points and 467 yards to WVU.

Colorado ranks 9th in tempo this season snapping the ball every 23.7 seconds.  So there will be a ton of possessions in this game with these teams both ranking in the Top 25 in tempo.  And Colorado is going to have to play fast to try and keep up with Oklahoma State, which will get its points and will not take its foot off the gas.

I think Colorado has a much better offense than the numbers show due to facing one of the toughest schedules of opposing defenses in the country.  Their last four games have come against Utah, Texas Tech, Baylor and Northwestern.  This is actually a pretty big step down in class for the Buffaloes, who still have solid offensive numbers despite the tough schedule averaging 394.2 yards per game and 5.5 per play against that brutal slate.

Colorado made the right move to QB Isaac Wilson, who has been much more effective than Julian Lewis despite the schedule.  Wilson threw for 290 yards on Texas Tech and 256 yards on Utah in his last two starts.  He is also much more of a dual-threat than Lewis, who had -45 rushing yards and took too many sacks.  Wilson's elusiveness has produced 72 rushing yards on 29 carries in limited action.  He will have his best game of the season against this soft Oklahoma State defense.

The forecast looks great for a shootout Saturday night with temps in the 70's, no precipitation and single-digit winds in Stillwater.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Pitt +20.5

I love the spot for the Pitt Panthers this week.  After beating Virginia Tech on National TV to get to 5-0, Pat Narduzzi stated they should be ranked now.  The Panthers were quickly humbled with consecutive upset losses by 4 to UNC at home and by 6 to Boston College on the road.  Now we get a hungry, motivated Panthers team this week in the big underdog role which is where Narduzzi thrives.

Miami is 'fat and happy' after a 6-0 start that has them sitting as the No. 1 ranked team in the country.  They are also coming off a 43-35 (2 OT) win over rival Florida State that will have taken a lot out of them both physically and mentally.  I expect them to be flat as a pancake in this game against Pitt, and a flat effort won't allow them to win this game by 3 TD or more.  They also lost several key players to injury on D in that win over the Seminoles.

The forecast is also going to keep this game closer than it normally would.  It's going to be nasty in Florida on Saturday with consistent rain and steady 20 MPH winds.  That is going to work in Pitt's favor because they are elite at stopping the run.  The Panthers allow just 58.4 rushing yards per game and 2.0 per carry, ranking 1st in the entire country in both categories.  They are going to be able to neutralize Miami's rushing attack, and Miami is going to want to run as much as possible in these conditions.  Bet Pitt Saturday.

20* SEC GAME OF THE WEEK on South Carolina ML -122

This is one of my favorite spots of the season.  South Carolina is off a bye and is much better than its 3-3 record would indicate.  Tennessee is off its biggest win over the season last week against Alabama and isn't as good as its 6-1 record would indicate.  The Vols have benefited from getting to play five of their first seven games at home.

Tennessee's two road games this season came against two of the worst teams in their respective conferences.  They won 45-24 at Georgia Tech and 24-17 at Arkansas.  The Yellow Jackets are one of the worst teams in the ACC, while the Razorbacks are probably the worst team in the SEC.  This trip to Columbia to face the Gamecocks will be far and away their toughest test of the season.  

The Vols are 'fat and happy' off the Alabama win, which they benefited from key injuries to several Crimson Tide players including leading WR Williams.  They were seen smoking cigars in the locker room after celebrating like they won the National Championship.  This is the week they get humbled.

South Carolina is 3-3 but probably deserved better in two of the losses.  They lost by 7 to Mississippi State despite outgaining them by 38 yards.  They lost 35-34 (OT) to Kentucky despite outgaining them by 64 yards.  It was impressive to see them play up to their potential and bounce back with a 38-19 road win at Florida off the Kentucky loss, and now they are coming off a bye and have had two full weeks to get healthy and prepare to beat Tennessee.  I expect a big effort from them Saturday.

South Carolina has elite numbers averaging 474.7 yards per game and 6.5 per play on offense, while allowing 340.8 yards per game and 5.4 per play on defense.  They are outgaining opponents by 134 yards per game and 1.1 yards per play.  Their numbers are similar to Tennessee, which is outgaining opponents by 125 yards per game and 1.2 yards per play.  So if there were no other factors involved this game should be around a PK on a neutral.  But the schedule spot with the Gamecocks at home off a bye and the Vols in a letdown spot off the Bama win, South Carolina needs to be at least a 3-point favorite if not higher.  Bet South Carolina on the Money Line Saturday.