Jack Jones

Jack's Free Pick Monday: NC State -11.5

The NC State Wolfpack made one of the best hires of the offseason in bring in Will Wade.  He has won everywhere he has gone at Chattanooga, VCU and LSU before posting 50 wins the past two seasons at McNeese State.  He is off and running at NC State, too.

The Wolfpack are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS this season covering the spread by a combined 37.5 points and averaging 106.0 points per game in those three games.  Texas Tech transfer Darrion Williams (21.7 PPG, 6.0 RPG, 4.7 APG) was the most sought-after player in the country in the transfer portal. Paul McNeil (20.3 PPG) is the lone holdover who played significant minutes last season and is fitting in right away.

Quadir Copeland (15.3 PPG, 4.7 APG) and Alyn Breed followed Wade from McNeese State.  Tre Holloman (9.7 PPG) was the starting PG at Michigan State last year.  Matthew Able (10.3 PPG) is the prized freshman recruit for Wade this season.  FSU transfer Jerry Deng (9.0 PPG) is a marksman from long range.

VCU lost head coach Ryan Odom to Virginia.  Former Bryant head coach Phil Martelli Jr. has a big rebuilding job ahead after all five starters who all averaged at least 9.7 points per game are gone.  He brought in some nice size, but it's evident the shooting is a problem, and I don't think the Rams will be able to keep up with the Wolfpack tonight.

The Rams shot just 41.7% and committed 19 turnovers in a loss to Utah State two games ago and shot 44.9% while committing another 17 turnovers in a lackluster 78-61 win as 21.5-point favorites against St. Peter's last time out.  This is a big step up in class and their first true road game, and I don't expect it to go very well for the Rams tonight.  Bet NC State Monday.

No. 1 Ranked Overall Capper All-Time! Jack Jones has absolutely CRUSHED the books over the past 7-plus years! He is riding a 6272-5466 Run L2989 Days on all premium plays that has seen his $1,000/game players cash in $297,610! He was the No. 6 Ranked Overall Capper in 2022 as well as the No. 8 Ranked Overall Capper in 2023! He finished as the No. 2 Ranked Overall Capper in 2024 with his $1,000/game players up $152,730 since January 1st, 2022!

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No. 2 Ranked NFL Capper All-Time! Jack has SIX Top-10 NFL Finishes (#3 2009, #4 2023, #4 2017, #5 2024, #8 2019, #10 2008) to his credit! He is riding a 606-484 NFL Run that has his $1,000/game players winning $68,080! That includes a 333-254 NFL Run since November of 2021! He delivered an 81-56 NFL Record two seasons ago and finished as the No. 4 Ranked NFL Capper in 2023-24 as a result! He followed it up with an 87-66 NFL Record last season to finish as the No. 5 Ranked NFL Capper in 2024-25 as well!

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15* NBA Monday Total DOMINATOR on Knicks/Heat OVER 244

The Heat are lapping the field in the NBA playing at a much faster pace than anyone while ranking 1st in pace this season.  Oddsmakers just can't set their totals high enough as they are 9-4 OVER in their 13 games this season.  They have failed to set it high enough tonight, too.

The Knicks are also a dead nuts OVER team going 9-3 OVER in their 12 games this season.  They are without Brunson and Anunoby, but being without Anunoby hurts much more defensively than it does on offense.  It means more playing time for Jordan Clarkson, who is a terrible defender but instant offense.

These teams just played on Friday with the Knicks winning 140-132 for 272 combined points.  Shamet had 36 points while Clarkson had 24 and Hart had a triple-double for the Knicks, showing that they have a deep bench.  They are worse off defensively with those guys getting more minutes, though.

The Knicks attempted 53 3-pointers while the Heat shot 44 in that first meeting, and it will be another game played either at the rim or behind the 3-point line.  I see another shootout that easily eclipses this 244-point total.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* CBB Monday Total DOMINATOR on St. Joe's/Penn OVER 161.5

Former Penn alum Fran McCaffery returned to his alma mater after a disappointing run with the Iowa Hawkeyes.  That's a Iowa Hawkeyes team that was a dead nuts OVER team in his time there as they were all offense and no defense while playing at a fast pace.  It will be the same for him at Penn.

The Quakers returned the league's top scorer in Ethan Roberts (16.8 PPG LY).  He is thriving under McCaffery thus far averaging 20.7 PPG.  So is Michael Zanoni (18.0 PPG), who is one of nine returning players for the Quakers.  Former five-star Duke commit TJ Power (10.3 PPG) also likes his new home.

Penn ranks 35th in adjusted tempo and 345th in adjusted defense this season already.  The Quakers opened with a 119-72 win over Rowan U for 191 combined points.  They came back with a 84-78 loss at American for 162 combined points.  And last time out they lost at Providence 106-81 for 187 combined points.  This total of 161.5 is too low for a game involving Penn.

St. Joe's has gone 2-1 OVER thus far despite playing a few good defensive-minded teams in Drexel and VA Tech.  The Hawks have four players scoring in double figures, and after a poor shooting start to the season should put forth their best offensive outing since putting up 85 points on Lafayette in the opener.  They just allowed 94 points to VA Tech.  They rank 131st in adjusted tempo so don't mind playing fast, either.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Hornets/Raptors OVER 239.5

The Hornets are a dead nuts OVER team as long as La'Melo Ball (22.3 PPG, 9.9 APG) is healthy and in the lineup.  He recently returned from an ankle injury in a 147-134 loss to the Bucks.  He sat out the next night against the Thunder, but he's back tonight against the Raptors.

The Hornets play much faster with Ball running the show, and the Raptors like to run as well ranking 12th in pace.  The Raptors went for 240 combined points with the short-handed Pacers and 239 with the short-handed avs in their last two games.  They went for 250 with the 76ers four games back.  They are fully healthy right now and thriving offensively scoring 119 or more points in four consecutive games.

The last time Ball faced the Raptors last season these teams went for 271 combined points in a 138-133 victory for Charlotte.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Miami Heat -1.5

I love the spot for the Miami Heat tonight.  They get a shot at quick revenge after losing 140-132 in New York to the Knicks on Friday.  They will get that revenge tonight, especially with the Knicks playing without both Jalen Brunson (28.0 PPG, 6.5 APG) and OG Anunoby (15.8 PPG).

The Heat have been a resilient team and haven't lost three straight all season.  They won't be losing three in a row for the first time tonight, either.  The Heat are 5-1 SU at home this season with their only loss coming the next night after beating the Cavaliers, suffering a letdown spot in the rematch.  

The Knicks are 0-3 SU on the road this season.  They lost by 8 to the Heat, by 10 to the Bucks and by 10 to the Bulls.  This will be their first road game since October 31st as they have benefitted from a very home-heavy schedule this season.  Bet the Heat Monday.

20* Cowboys/Raiders ESPN No-Brainer on Dallas -3

I love the spot for the Dallas Cowboys this week.  They are off their bye week and had extra time to deal with the death of Marshawn Kneeland.  Now they will be playing inspired football for their teammate, and their defense will look nothing like it has up to this point in the season, which has been one of the worst units in football.

The Cowboys could have as many as five key contributors available that they haven't had this season.  They traded for Quinnen Williams and he and Kenny Clark will form one of the best run-stuffing duos in the NFL moving forward.  They get back pass-rusher DeMarvion Overshown from IR, and he is the player the Cowboys believed in enough to trade away Micah Parsons.  They get CB Shavon Revel to make his season debut.  S Malik Hooker should be back from IR and felow S Donovan Wilson will be back as well.  This is going to be one of the most improved defenses in the NFL moving forward.

The Cowboys have an elite offense and are fully healthy on offense to boot.  They rank 4th in scoring offense at 29.2 points per game and 4th in total offense at 378.4 yards per game.  Their offensive line is fully healthy, and they have their full compliment of weapons for Dak Prescott.  This will remain one of the best offenses in the NFL moving forward.

The Raiders are an absolute dumpster fire.  They are 2-7 on the season and traded away their best receiver in Jakobi Myers, who is already making big plays for the Jaguars.  Their offense is embarrassing, ranking 31st in scoring offense at 15.4 points per game and 30th in total offense at 272.7 yards per game.  Basically stop Brock Bowers and Ahton Jeanty and you stop the Raiders, which will be Dallas' focus.  QB Geno Smith was noticeably hobbled in the 2H against the Broncos last week and may not be 100%.  He will be playing behind one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL especially now that they are down two starters in LT Kolton Miller and RG Jackson Powers-Johnson.

The Raiders just don't have the firepower to keep up with the Cowboys, and I think the defense is a little overrated due to a pretty easy schedule of opposing offenses.  When they have faced some of the better offenses in the NFL they have allowed 41 points to the Commanders, 40 to the Colts, 31 to the Chiefs and 30 to the Jaguars.  I expect the Cowboys to get to 30 tonight, and it will be more than enough to cover this 3-point spread.  Bet the Cowboys Monday.