Jack Jones

Jack's Free Pick Sunday: Brewers/Twins UNDER 8

The forecast will aid us in cashing this UNDER 8 ticket between the Brewers and Twins today.  Temps will be in the 60's with 15-20 MPH winds blowing in from center at Target Field in Minnesota.

These teams combined for 5 runs in Game 1 and 3 runs in Game 2, and it should be another pitcher's duel in Game 3 given the forecast.  The Brewers are 9-3-1 UNDER in their last 13 games overall with 8 or fewer combined runs in 11 of those 13 games.

Robert Gasser gets the start for the Brewers today.  He has gone 2-2 with a 2.67 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in seven career starts in the big leagues.  He is backed by the 7th-best bullpen in baseball with a 3.34 ERA this season.

Bailey Ober is 4-2 with a 3.46 ERA and 1.02 WHIP in nine starts for the Twins this season.  He has been dominant at home, going 4-0 with a 2.43 ERA and 0.95 WHIP in six starts at Target Field.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

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15* MLB Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Royals/Cardinals OVER 9

The forecast will aid us in cashing this OVER 9 ticket between the Royals and Cardinals today.  It's going to be hot and humid with temps will be in the 90's with 15-20 MPH winds blowing out to left-center in St. Louis this afternoon.

The Cardinals are scoring 4.6 runs per game and allowing 4.5 runs per game this season.  The Royals are allowing 4.6 runs per game.  But the Royals are heating up at the plate scoring at least 5 runs in five of their last 11 games overall, and 4 or more seven times.  They are 5-1 OVER in their last six games overall with 9 or more combined runs four times.

Stephen Kolek will be making just his 3rd start of the season for the Royals.  He is 1-0 with a 6.75 ERA in two starts, allowing 8 earned runs and 3 homers in 10 2/3 innings.  He is backed by a poor Kansas City bullpen with a 4.50 ERA this season.

Andre Pallante is 4-3 with a 4.46 ERA and 1.37 WHIP in eight starts for the Cardinals this season.  He has been at his worst at home, going 1-3 with a 5.91 ERA and 1.55 WHIP in four starts while allowing 14 earned runs, 3 homers and 33 base runners in 21 1/3 innings.  Pallante allwed 7 earned runs and 2 homers in 4 1/3 innings of a 10-7 loss to the Royals in his last start against them.  This St. Louis bullpen is also bad with a 4.53 ERA this season.

The OVER is 9-3 in the last 12 meetings between the Royals and Cardinals with 10 or more combined runs in eight of those 12 meetings, and 9 or more in nine of them.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* Yankees/Mets MLB No-Brainer on OVER 8.5

The forecast will aid us in cashing this OVER 8.5 ticket between the New York Yankees and New York Mets today.  It's going to be hot and humid at Citi Field with temps in the 80's and 10-15 MPH winds blowing out to center.  The OVER is 5-1 in the last six meetings with 9 or more combined runs in five of those six.

The Yankees are scoring 5.0 runs per game this season as one of the best offenses in baseball.  The Mets have gotten healthier recently and are starting to hit again as a result.  They have scored a total of 30 runs in their last five games, averaging 6.0 runs per game.

Elmer Rodriquez-Cruz will be making just his 3rd start of the season today.  He is 0-1 with a 5.19 ERA and 2.08 WHIP in two starts, allowing 5 earned runs and 18 base runners in 8 2/3 innings.

Freddy Peralta is 3-3 with a 3.10 ERA and 1.22 WHIP in nine starts this season, including 2-2 with a 3.51 ERA and 1.32 WHIP in six home starts.  Peralta allowed 2 homers in 5 innings in his lone start against the Yankees last season.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* MLB Sunday Afternoon Line Mistake on Reds/Guardians OVER 8.5

The forecast will aid us in cashing this OVER 8.5 ticket between the Reds and Guardians today.  Temps will be approaching 80 with lights winds blowing out to center in Cleveland.  The Reds beat the Guardians 7-6 for 13 combined runs in Game 1, while Cleveland came back for a 7-4 win in Game 2 and 11 combined runs.  It was a similar forecast for both games and it should be another slug fest in Game 3 today.

The Reds are 5-0 OVER in their last five games overall going for 11 or more combined runs in all five games.  They have scored a total of 37 runs in those five games and are red hot at the plate right now.  The Guardians have scored at least 4 runs in five of their last six games, and 6 runs or more in five of their last nine games.

The Guardians should crush Brady Singer, who is 2-3 with a 5.79 ERA and 1.67 WHIP in nine starts this season.  Singer has allowed 27 earned runs, 11 homers and 70 base runners in 42 innings.  He is backed by a poor Cincinnati bullpen with a 4.89 ERA this season.

Gavin Williams has had a propensity to give up the long ball this season.  He has allowed 23 earned runs and 8 homers in 55 1/3 innings with a 3.74 ERA.  Williams has allowed 5 earned runs or more in three of his last four starts as he's really scuffling coming in.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* MLB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Orioles/Nationals OVER 10

The forecast will aid us in cashing this OVER 10 ticket between the Orioles and Nationals today.  It's going to be very hot and humid with temps in the 80's and the ball should be flying out again today as a result.

The Washington Nationals are a dead nuts OVER team.  They have gone 29-15-2 OVER in all games this season.  They are scoring 5.5 runs per game and allowing 5.7 runs per game.  They just went for 14, 15 and 16 combined runs with the Reds in their three games last series, and 16 combined runs with the Orioles in Game 2 yesterday.

The Baltimore Orioles are 15-9-1 OVER in their last 25 games overall.  They have gone for 9 or more combined runs in 15 of those 25 games.  They are allowing 5.4 runs per game this season with a terrible rotation and bullpen.  The Orioles have a 4.51 ERA as a bullpen while the Nationals have a 4.83 ERA.

Brandon Young is 4-8 with a 5.59 ERA and 1.49 WHIP in 17 career starts in the big leagues for the Orioles.  The Nationals will go with opener Richard Lovelady before giving way to one of the worst starters in baseball in Miles Mikolas.  He is 1-3 with a 7.00 ERA and 1.53 WHIP in six starts and three relief appearances following openers this season.  Runs will be plentiful today with these two gas cans on the mound.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

25* NBA 2nd Round TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Cavs/Pistons UNDER 206.5

Winner-take-all Game 7's in the NBA Playoffs tend to be much lower-scoring.  That's especially the case in the 2nd round of the playoffs or later.  And this Game 7 between the Pistons and Cavs will be no different tonight.

Detroit is a defensive-minded team so it's no surprised that Detroit home games would be 5-2 UNDER if not for OT in these playoffs.  That includes 3-0 UNDER in this series if not for the one OT in Game 5 that was sitting at 206 combined points at the end of regulation.

The Pistons shot 52.4% from the field and 44.4% from 3-point range in Game 6 and it still stayed UNDER the total in Cleveland.  They clearly aren't going to shoot that well again.  Defensively, they have figured out the Cavs and have held them to 45% or worse shooting from the field in five of six games in this series.

Officials tend to swallow the whistle even more in Game 7's and let the players decide the game on the court.  That will lead to less FT attempts for both teams tonight.  This game will be played at a snail's pace, and defensive intensity will be maxed out with what's at stake.  I don't expect either team to top 100 points tonight.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.