Jack Jones

Jack's Free Pick Wednesday: Reds/Brewers OVER 8.5

The Milwaukee Brewers have a potent offense this season scoring 5.2 runs per game.  The Reds are healthier now and have scored 3 runs or more in five of their last six while averaging 4.8 runs per game during this span.

Andrew Abbott is 2-2 with a 5.23 ERA and 1.45 WHIP in four career starts at Milwaukee allowing 12 earned runs, 4 homers and 30 base runners in 20 2/3 innings.  He is backed by a poor Cincinnati bullpen with a 4.92 ERA on the season, including a 5.18 ERA on the road.

Shane Drohan is 3-2 with a 3.12 ERA and 1.23 WHIP in six starts and 10 relief appearances for the Brewers this season.  Drohan allowed 8 base runners in 4 1/3 innings of a 6-5 win over the Reds in his lone start against them on June 24th.  Cincinnati hitters will have the advantage getting to see him less than a week later.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

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15* MLB Wednesday Night Line Mistake on Rays/Royals OVER 10

The forecast will aid us in cashing in this OVER 10 ticket between the Rays and Royals at hitter-friendly Kauffman Stadium tonight.  Temps will be in the 90's with 15 MPH winds blowing out to left-center at game time.  It was a similar forecast yesterday when these teams combined for 14 runs in Game 1.  The OVER is 3-1 in the last four meetings with 14 or more combined runs in three of them.

Both offenses will get to see these two starters for the 2nd time in a week.  That will be a big advantage for the offenses knowing what they can expect, especially after having so much success against them last week.

Shane McClanahan allowed 6 runs, 2 earned, and 3 homers in 6 innings of a 12-5 loss to the Royals on June 23rd.  Seth Lugo was even worse, allowing 7 earned runs and 3 homers in 5 innings of a 13-2 loss to the Rays on June 25th.  Both starters will get rocked again today given the forecast.  The Rays have a 4.85 ERA as a bullpen on the road while the Royals have a 5.43 ERA as a bullpen this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

25* MLB Pre-All Star Break TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Dodgers/A's OVER 9

The forecast will aid us in cashing this OVER 9 ticket between the Dodgers and A's tonight at hitter-friendly Sutter Health Park.  Temps will be in the 80's with 10 MPH winds blowing out to center.  It was a similar forecast the past two days when these teams combined for 13 runs in Game 1 and 12 runs in Game 2.  It will be more of the same in Game 3 tonight.

The Dodgers have decided to skip Shohei Ohtani's start and push him back to Friday.  With that news I'd play this total up to 10.  But I got in early at 9, and this is a tremendous number knowing the Dodgers are going to make this a bullpen game starting with Charlie Barnes, who has a 5.40 ERA and 1.80 WHIP this season.

Like all of these A's starters, J.T. Ginn has struggled much more at Sutter Health Park at home than he has on the road.  Ginn has posted a 4.29 ERA and 1.62 WHIP in nine home games this season allowing 20 earned runs and 68 base runners in 42 innings with just 29 K's.

This is a dead nuts OVER head-to-head series.  Indeed, the OVER is 10-1 in the last 11 meetings between the Dodgers and A's with 10 or more combined runs in 10 of those 11 meetings.  This total of 9 is too short tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* MLB Wednesday Early ANNIHILATOR on Nationals/Red Sox OVER 9.5

The forecast will aid us in cashing this OVER 9.5 ticket between the Nationals and Red Sox this afternoon.  Temps will be in the 90's with 10 MPH winds blowing out to center at Fenway Park.

The Nationals are a dead nuts OVER team going 50-34-3 OVER in all games this season.  They are scoring 5.3 runs per game and allowing 5.2 runs per game this season.  The Red Sox are heating up at the plate scoring 4 runs or more in seven of their last eight games, including 5 runs or more in six of them.

Andrew Alvarez has solid numbers this season, but he hasn't pitched 5 innings in any start this year.  That is going to put a ton of pressure on this bad Washington bullpen, which is one of the worst in baseball with a 4.97 ERA this season.

Payton Tolle is 4-5 with a 3.03 ERA in 12 starts this season.  He is backed by a tired Boston bullpen that has closed out a ton of close games recently and will be playing for a 16th consecutive day.  That bullpen gave up 7 runs to the Nationals yesterday alone.  

The OVER is 4-1 in the last five meetings between the Red Sox and Nationals with 9 or more combined runs in all five, and 10 or more in three of them.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* AL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Twins/Astros OVER 8

The Minnesota Twins are a dead nuts OVER team.  They have gone 55-31-1 OVER in all games this season.  That includes 23-9-1 OVER in their last 33 games overall with 9 or more combined runs in 22 of their last 30 games, and 10 or more in 20 of those.  They Twins are scoring 4.8 runs per game and allowing 5.2 runs per game this season.

The Astros have a potent offense when they are as healthy as they are right now.  They are scoring 4.5 runs per game and allowing 5.0 runs per game.  They have gone 46-39-3 OVER in all games this season.

Taj Bradley is 6-3 with a 3.98 ERA in 15 starts this season, including 5-2 with a 4.30 ERA and 1.39 WHIP in nine road starts.  Bradley is 2-3 with a 5.61 ERA in five career starts against Houston, allowing 16 earned runs and 6 homers in 25 2/3 innings.  He is backed by a terrible Minnesota bullpen with a 5.50 ERA this season.

Tatsuya Imai is 5-3 with a 5.36 ERA and 1.32 WHIP in 11 starts this season, including 2-2 with a 6.46 ERA and 1.44 WHIP in five home starts.  Imai allowed 3 earned runs and 2 homers in 4 2/3 innings of a 6-3 loss to the Twins in his lone career start against them on May 18th.  He is backed by a mediocre Houston bullpen with a 4.43 ERA this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.