Jack Jones

Jack's Free Pick Saturday: Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 (-145)

Instead of laying the -265 on the Milwaukee Brewers I'll gladly take the discount on the Run Line at -145.  Runs are expected in this game with 10-15 MPH winds blowing out to center at Coors Field and temps in the 80's tonight.  The total has been set at 10.5, so when runs are expected the Run Line on the road team has a lot more value.

That's especially the case when we get to back arguably the most dominant starter in baseball in Jacob Misiorowski.  He is 6-2 with a 1.65 ERA and 0.79 WHIP in 12 starts this season allowing just 13 earned runs and 4 homers in 71 innings with a whopping 108 K's.  Misiorowski is 3-2 with a 1.26 ERA and 0.77 WHIP in five road starts.

The Rockies will make this a bullpen game likely with Valente Bellozo (7.59 ERA) and Tanner Gordon (6.37 ERA) getting the bulk of the innings.  But honestly, it does not matter who starts for the Rockies, I like the Brewers either way.  The Rockies have a 4.92 ERA as a bullpen and a 5.56 ERA at home.  The Brewers have a 3.33 ERA as a bullpen.

Milwaukee is 5-2 in its last seven meetings with Colorado will all five wins coming by 2 runs or more.  Bet the Brewers on the Run Line Saturday.

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15* Interleague PLAY OF THE DAY on White Sox/Phillies OVER 9.5

The forecast will aid us in cashing this OVER 9.5 ticket between the White Sox and Phillies today.  Temps will be in the 90's with 10-15 MPH winds blowing out to center.  It was a similar forecast yesterday when these teams combined for 14 runs in Game 1 of this series.  The OVER is now 4-1-1 in the last six meetings.

Sean Burke is 2-3 with a 3.72 ERA in 12 games including 10 starts for the White Sox this season.  He is backed by a poor Chicago bullpen with a 5.19 ERA on the road this season.

Andrew Painter is the weakest link in Philadelphia's rotation.  He is 1-6 with a 5.74 ERA and 1.52 WHIP in 11 starts this season, allowing 34 earned runs and 81 base runners in 53 1/3 innings.

The White Sox are 16-5-1 OVER in their last 22 games overall going for 10 or more combined runs in 12 of those 22 games.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Red Sox/Yankees AL East ANNIHILATOR on OVER 8

The forecast will aid us in cashing this OVER 8 ticket between the Red Sox and Yankees at hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium.  Temps will be in the 80's with 10-15 MPH winds blowing out to center in New York tonight.

Ranger Suarez comes in struggling allowing 9 earned runs and 19 base runners in 10 innings in his last two starts.  He allowed 4 earned runs in 4 2/3 innings in his lone start against the Yankees this season.

Will Warren does not enjoy facing the Red Sox, either.  He is 1-2 with a 9.42 ERA and 1.95 WHIP in three career starts against them, allowing 15 earned runs and 28 base runners in 14 1/3 innings.

The Red Sox are 6-3-2 OVER in their last 11 games overall finishing with 8 or more combined runs in nine of those 11 games.  The Yankees are 5-1-1 OVER in their last seven games overall finishing with 8 or more combined runs in six of them.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* MLB Saturday Afternoon Line Mistake on Orioles/Blue Jays OVER 8

The Baltimore Orioles are heating up at the plate scoring 5 runs or more in 10 of their last 14 games overall.  The Blue Jays are also heating up scoring 5 runs or more in four of their last seven games, and 3 runs or more in all seven.  This total of 8 is too short today.

Kyle Bradish is 3-6 with a 3.72 ERA and 1.44 WHIP in 12 starts this season, including 1-3 with a 5.32 ERA and 2.03 ERA in five road starts.  He is backed by a terrible Baltimore bullpen with a 4.72 ERA on the season and a 5.79 ERA on the road.

The Blue Jays will make this a bullpen game and their bullpen is already taxed.  They will go with some combination of Spencer Miles and Braydon Fisher.  They allowed 13 runs to the Orioles yesterday and Toronto has now allowed 5 runs or more in five of their last seven games.

The OVER is 6-1 in the last six meetings between the Orioles and Blue Jays with 9 or more combined runs in six of those seven, and 11 or more in five of them.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Mariners/Tigers AL Early ANNIHILATOR on OVER 8.5

The forecast will aid us in cashing this OVER 8.5 ticket between the Mariners and Tigers today.  Temps will be in the 70's with 15 MPH winds blowing out to left-center in Detroit.  It was a similar forecast yesterday when these teams combined for 10 runs.

Both the Mariners and Tigers are heating up at the plate.  That's especially the case for Detroit, which has scored 7 runs or more in four straight.  The Tigers are 3-0-1 OVER in their last four games overall.  The Mariners are 3-0 OVER in their last three games overall.

Bryce Miller will make just his 4th start of the season for the Mariners.  He allowed 2 earned runs in 4 1/3 innings of a 9-3 loss to the Tigers in his last start against them.  Keider Montero is 2-3 with a 3.69 ERA in 11 starts this season and 2-2 with a 3.89 ERA in seven home starts.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on Royals/Twins OVER 8

It will be hot in Minnesota today and the ball should be flying out again like it was in Game 1 when the Royals and Twins combined for 5 homers and 14 runs in Game 1 of this series.  Both bullpens are taxed too with the Twins using seven different pitchers and the Royals using five in Game 1, plus a lot more bullpen action in Game 2.

These are two of the worst bullpens in baseball as it is with the Royals posting a 5.01 ERA and the Twins a 4.80 ERA on the season.  The Royals are heating up at the plate scoring 5.3 runs per game in their last seven games.  The Twins are 40-24-1 OVER in all games this season scoring 4.6 runs per game and allowing 5.0 runs per game.

Luinder Avila is 1-2 with a 4.44 ERA and 1.71 WHIP this season allowing 13 earned runs and 45 base runners in 26 1/3 innings.  He has allowed 6 earned runs, 2 homers and 17 base runners in 8 innings in his two starts this season.

Joe Ryan has struggled of late allowing 4 earned runs and 2 homers in 6 innings of a 9-6 win over the White Sox in his last start.  Ryan has really not figured out the Royals, allowing 10 earned runs in 6 innings in his last two starts against them.  HIs last three starts against Kansas City all saw 13 or more combined runs and sailed OVER the total.

The OVER is 8-2-1 in Twins last 11 games overall with 10 or more combined runs in seven of their last 10 games.  The OVER is 5-3 in Royals last eight games overall with 9 or more combined runs in five of them.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* NL Central TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Reds/Cardinals OVER 9.5

The forecast will aid us in cashing this OVER 9.5 ticket between the Reds and Cardinals today.  Temps will be in the 80's with light winds blowing out to left-center in St. Louis.  The Reds are 38-23-1 OVER in all games this season.  These teams combined for 13 runs yesterday with a similar forecast, and it will be more of the same today.

Nick Lodolo is 2-1 with a 5.20 ERA and 1.37 WHIP in five starts for the Reds this season allowing 16 earned runs and 7 homers in 27 2/3 innings.  Lodolo has allowed 6 earned runs and 2 homers in 7 1/3 innings in his last two starts against St. Louis.  The Reds have one of the worst bullpens in baseball with a 5.11 ERA.

Matthew Liberatore is 3-3 with a 4.35 ERA and 1.50 WHIP in 12 starts this season allowing 30 earned runs, 10 homers and 93 base runners in 62 innings.  Liberatore is 0-1 with a 4.50 ERA in three career starts against the Reds, allowing 7 earned runs and 4 homers in 14 innings.  

Both the Reds and Cardinals crush left-handed pitching hitting much better against southpaws than right-handers this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* MLB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Nationals/Diamondbacks OVER 9

The Washington Nationals are a dead nuts OVER team.  They are 39-22-3 OVER in all games this season scoring 5.4 runs per game and allowing 5.3 runs per game.  The Diamondbacks are scoring 4.4 runs per game and allowing 4.5 runs per game this season.

Zack Littell is 5-4 with a 5.01 ERA in 12 games this season allowing 40 runs, 33 earned, and 15 homers in 59 1/3 innings.  Littell has allowed 6 earned runs and 3 homers in 9 innings in his last two starts against Arizona.  Washington has one of the worst bullpens in baseball with a 4.76 ERA this season.

Eduardo Rodriquez is due some regression.  He allowed 4 earned runs in 5 innings in his last start against the Nationals.  The Nationals beat the Diamondbacks 14-1 yesterday to really tax their bullpen, which was already taxed after a 4-game series with the Dodgers.

The OVER is 8-2 in the last nine meetings between the Nationals and Diamondbacks with 9 or more combined runs in eight of those 10 meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.