Jack Jones

Jack's Free Pick Saturday: Mets/Angels UNDER 8

The Mets have one of the worst offenses in baseball in their current state.  They are scoring just 3.4 runs per game this season, and injuries are a big reason for it.  They are without three key hitters in Lindor, Robert Jr. and Polanco.  They have scored 4 runs or fewer in 15 of their last 17 games.

The Angels have scored 3 runs or fewer in three straight and nine of their last 12 games overall.  It won't get any easier for them today against one of the best young starters in baseball.  Nolan McLean is 1-2 with a 2.55 ERA and 0.85 WHIP in six starts this season, allowing just 10 earned runs, 2 homers and 30 base runners in 35 1/3 innings with a whopping 45 K's.

Lefty Reid Detmers has held his own for the Angels this season.  He has gone 1-2 with a 4.28 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in six starts, allowing 16 earned runs, 3 homers and 37 base runners in 33 2/3 innings with 36 K's.  The Mets are hitting .182 against left-handed starters this season.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

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15* 76ers/Celtics Game 7 ANNIHILATOR on Philadelphia +8.5

The books are failing to adjust for the fact that the Philadelphia 76ers have Joel Embiid back healthy and playing at an MVP level.  He made his playoff debut in a Game 4 loss, and since then the 76ers have thrived with a 113-97 win as 10.5-point road dogs in Game 5 and a 106-93 home win as 5.5-point dogs in Game 6.

Embiid finished with 26 points, 10 rebounds and 6 assists in Game 4, 33 points, 4 rebounds and 8 assists in Game 5 and 19 points, 10 rebounds and 8 assists in Game 6.  He opens everything up for them, and the Celtics don't have an answer for him as they have tried everything.  Their bigs are limited offensively when they are on the court, and when they go small ball they get crushed inside.  

I don't think they'll magically come up with an answer in Game 7, and this one should go down to the wire so getting 8.5 points is tremendous value.  Jayson Tatum is banged up even though he is expected to give it a go tonight, too.  Bet the 76ers Saturday.

15* Blue Jays/Twins AL Early ANNIHILATOR on OVER 7.5

The forecast will aid us in cashing this OVER 7.5 ticket between the Blue Jays and Twins this afternoon.  Temps will be in the 60's with 10 MPH winds blowing out to straightaway center.  

It was a similar forecast yesterday when the Blue Jays beat the Twins 7-3 for 10 combined runs and 21 combined hits.  The OVER is now 10-0 in the last 10 meetings between the Blue Jays and Twins with 8 or more combined runs in all 10 meetings, and 9 or more in nine of them.

Dylan Cease is due some regression and this total has been set too low due to his numbers thus far.  Cease is 4-5 with a 4.69 ERA in 13 career starts against the Twins.  The Blue Jays have a 4.05 ERA as a bullpen while the Twins have a 5.03 ERA.

Rookie Connor Prielipp is 1-0 with a 4.00 ERA in two starts for the Twins this season.  Those two starts came against the Mariners and Mets.  This is a big step up in class for him today against a Blue Jays lineup that will get to him.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* DBacks/Cubs NL Early ANNIHILATOR on OVER 7

The Cubs are scoring 5.5 runs per game this season.  They are 18-5-1 OVER in their last 24 games overall with 7 or more combined runs in 19 of those 24 games, and 8 or more in 17 of them.  The Cubs have scored at least 6 runs in 12 of their last 18 games overall.  This total of 7 is too short for a game involving the Cubs right now.

The Diamondbacks are 14-6-2 OVER in their last 22 games overall with 7 or more combined runs in 21 of those 22 games.  They are scoring 4.7 runs per game and allowing 5.5 runs per game this season.  This total of 7 is too short for a game involving the Diamondbacks as well.

Ryne Nelson has been rocked for 14 earned runs in 5 1/3 innings in his last two starts, so the Cubs are capable of covering this total on their own.  Shota Imanaga is coming off his worst start of the season, allowing 4 earned runs and 9 base runners in 5 1/3 innings to the Dodgers.  

The Cubs and Diamondbacks have combined for at least 7 runs in seven of their last eight meetings, and 8 runs or more in six of them.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Dodgers/Cardinals NL No-Brainer on OVER 8.5

The Cardinals are really a dead nuts OVER team this season.  They are scoring 5.1 runs per game and allowing 5.0 runs per game with a terrible bullpen that has a 5.01 ERA this season.  The Cardinals are 4-0 OVER in their last four games going for 9, 15, 9 and 18 combined runs with the Pirates and Dodgers.

The Dodgers have one of the best lineups in baseball and are scoring 5.3 runs per game this season.  They have actually been a lot better at scoring runs on the road.  This total of 8.5 is too low for these two starting pitchers, lineups and bullpens.

Roki Sasaki has been a major disappointment for the Dodgers this season.  He is 1-2 with a 6.35 ERA and 1.81 WHIP in five starts, allowing 16 earned runs, 7 homers and 41 base runners in 22 2/3 innings.

Michael McGreevy is due some regression for the Cardinals with how much he pitches to contact with just 21 K's in 33 1/3 innings with 5 homers allowed.  McGreevy allowed 4 earned runs in 6 innings in his lone career start against the Dodgers.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* NL Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Reds/Pirates OVER 8

The forecast will aid us in cashing this OVER 8 ticket between the Reds and Pirates today.  There will be 10 MPH winds blowing out to right-center.  It was a similar forecast the last four days when the Pirates went 4-0 OVER in their last four home games going for 18, 9 and 15 combined runs with the Cardinals, and 10 combined runs with the Reds in Game 1 yesterday.

The Pirates have one of the more underrated lineups in baseball scoring 4.9 runs per game this season.  The Reds are heating up at the plate going 10-2 OVER in their last 12 games overall while scoring at least 5 runs in eight of those 12 games, including 6 runs or more seven times.  They have gone for 9 or more combined runs in 10 of their last 12 games.

Rhett Lowder is a contact pitcher who is due some regression after posting a 3.18 ERA and 1.18 WHIP to this point.  Carmen Mlodzinski is 1-2 with a 4.13 ERA and 1.45 WHIP in five starts and one relief appearance this season.  Mlodzinksi allowed 4 earned runs in 4 1/3 innings in his lone career start against Cincinnati.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.