Jack’s Free Pick Thursday: Florida International +5 

The Florida International Golden Panthers are one of my favorite teams in college basketball.  They returned almost everyone from last year’s 20-win team and are off to a 13-6 start this season.  They play at the 12th-fastest pace in the country and apply constant pressure defensively. 

I have the Golden Panthers power rated as the better team here, so getting 5 points is a nice value.  They’re up against an Old Dominion team that is just 7-12 on the season.  And while the Monarchs have played the tougher schedule, they should not be favored this heavily tonight. 

It’s really hard to find many good wins on Old Dominion’s schedule.  Their seven victories have come against St. Joe’s, Loyola-MD, Northeastern, MD-East Shore, Middle Tennessee, UAB and Charlotte.  Five of those seven wins came by 10 points or fewer, too. 

FIU is 7-0 ATS in its last seven road games off two consecutive home wins by 10 points or more.  The Golden Panthers are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 when playing against a bad team that wins 20% to 40% of their games.  The Monarchs are 4-11-1 ATS in their last 16 games as a favorite.  Bet Florida International Thursday.

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20* UCLA/Oregon State FS1 Late-Night BAILOUT on Oregon State -7.5 

The Oregon State Beavers will be highly motivated for a win Thursday night.  They are coming off back-to-back road losses to Washington and Washington State. 

Now the Beavers return home where they are 8-1 SU & 7-2 ATS this season, outscoring opponents by 14.0 points per game.  They crushed Arizona 82-65 in their last home games and have one of the better home-court advantages in the Pac-12. 

UCLA is a dumpster fire right now.  It is 2-6 SU & 2-6 ATS in its last eight games overall with its only wins coming against Cal and Washington.  Five of those six losses came by 8 points or more, so the Bruins have been blown out on the regular. 

Oregon State is 8-1 ATS off two straight games where they had 5 or fewer steals over the last two seasons.  The Beavers are 12-2-1 ATS in their last 15 meetings with the Bruins.  UCLA is 16-35 ATS in its last 51 road games.  The Bruins are 11-27 ATS in their last 38 games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Beavers are 15-3 ATS in their last 18 games following an ATS loss.  The Beavers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games off a SU loss.  Roll with Oregon State Thursday. 

15* Michigan State/Indiana FS1 ANNIHILATOR on Indiana +4 

Home-court advantage has been huge in the Big Ten this season.  That has especially been the case for the Indiana Hoosiers, who are 11-1 at home and winning by 15.9 points per game this season.  They have impressive wins over Florida State by 16 and Ohio State by 12 at home this year. 

Michigan State has clearly been vulnerable on the road.  The Spartans are 2-1 SU but 0-3 ATS in true road games this season.  They only won by 3 at Seton Hall as 5.5-point favorites.  They only won by 5 at Northwestern as 12-point favorites.  And they were blasted by 29 at Purdue as similar 4.5-point favorites. 

Indiana upset Michigan State in both meetings last season.  They won 79-75 as 14-point road dogs and 63-62 as 6-point home dogs.  And the Hoosiers are night and day better than they were a year ago as this is easily the best team that Archie Miller has had in his tenure.  The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings. 

Indiana is 7-0 ATS in home games vs. good rebounding teams that average 4-plus more boards than their opponents after 15-plus games over the last three seasons.  Michigan State is 0-6 ATS in all neutral/road games when playing against a team with a winning record this season.  The Spartans are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games as a road favorite.  The Hoosiers are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games as home underdogs.  Take Indiana Thursday. 

15* CBB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Washington PK 

Washington (12-7) and Utah (10-7) have similar records this season, but there is a big difference between these teams.  I have the Huskies power-rated 10 points better than Utah on a neutral, so I’ll gladly back them as a pick ‘em here tonight. 

Washington has been one of the most unlucky teams in the country this season in close games.  They rank 348th out of 353 teams in the ‘luck’ factor because of these close losses.  Six of Washington’s seven losses have come by 7 points or fewer, including four by 4 points or less. 

Utah also has seven losses this season, but five of those seven have come by 16 points or more and by an average of 19 points per game.  That includes a 22-point loss to Coastal Carolina, a 39-point loss to Colorado, a 28-point loss to San Diego State, a 19-point loss to Arizona State and a 16-point loss to Arizona. 

Utah is 0-6 ATS in home games off two or more consecutive overs over the last two seasons.  The Utes are 4-14-3 ATS in their last 21 games as a home underdog.  Utah is 0-5 ATS in its last five games as a dog.  The Utes are 6-15 ATS in their last 21 games vs. a good team that wins 60% to 80% of their games.  Bet Washington Thursday. 

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Cleveland Cavaliers -2 

This is a very favorable spot for the Cleveland Cavaliers tonight.  They come in on two days’ rest, so they will be fresh and ready to go tonight.  They should be able to handle the Washington Wizards at home. 

The Wizards are coming off an overtime loss at Miami last night.  Washington will now be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and its 3rd game in 4 days.  The Wizards will not have much left in the tank after that overtime defeat. 

Washington is 1-10 ATS in road games after allowing 130 points or more over the last two seasons.  The Wizards are 16-34-1 ATS in their last 51 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  The Cavaliers are 22-8-1 ATS in their last 31 games vs. a team with a winning percentage of less than 40%.  Take the Cavaliers Thursday. 

20* Mavs/Blazers TNT No-Brainer on Portland +4.5 

I like the spot for the Portland Trail Blazers tonight.  They want revenge from a 112-120 road loss to Dallas just six days ago on January 17th.  Now they get their chance at revenge at home this time around. 

The Blazers come in on two days’ rest, so they will be fresh and ready to go.  Both Hassan Whiteside and Trevor Ariza will be available for them tonight, and CJ McCollum could return from an ankle injury as he has been upgraded to questionable. 

The Mavericks lost a key piece in Dwight Powell in their last game against the Clippers.  It’s a season-ending Achilles injury.  Powell is one of the most underrated players in the NBA and does a lot for this team that goes unnoticed.  He’s great in the pick-and-roll and shoots 63.8% from the field. 

Plays on underdogs (Portland) - a cold team failing to cover 12 or more of their last 15 against an opponent that covered three of their last four are 72-27 (72.7%) ATS since 1996.  Bet the Blazers Thursday.