Jack Jones

Jack's Free Pick Friday: Charlotte Hornets +9

The Charlotte Hornets continue to play well despite battling through some injuries.  They have gone 6-3 SU & 7-2 ATS in their last nine games overall.  Now they are rested and ready to go playing just their 2nd game in 5 days and relishing the opportunity to face the Milwaukee Bucks tonight.

While the Hornets will be fresh, the Bucks will be running on fumes.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days after a loss in Dallas last night.  All five starters played more than 29 minutes against the Mavericks.  It was their sixth straight road game out West, and now they head back home for this contest with the Hornets.

I always like fading teams in that first game back home after a long road trip.  And it's worth noting that Giannis Antetokounmpo sat out the past two games with a knee injury and is questionable to return tonight.  They shouldn't even be 9-point favorites if he plays given the tough spot, and it would be an added bonus if he doesn't.

The Hornets are 3-0 ATS in their last three meetings with the Bucks, including an 126-114 outright upset as 9.5-point dogs in their lone meeting this season.  Charlotte is also 8-2-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings.  Milwaukee is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games following a loss.  Bet the Hornets Friday.

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15* MLB Friday Total DOMINATOR on Yankees/Rays OVER 8.5

Any Yankees total that is 9 or less I'm going to be looking for a reason to bet the OVER.  They have one of the best lineups in baseball, and after a slow offensive start this season, they have scored 17 runs in their last three games and should be a much better OVER bet moving forward after opening 5-1 to the UNDER through their first six games.

Both of these starters are getting too much respect from oddsmakers with this total.  Corey Kluber is washed up and allowed 8 base runners in 4 innings in his opening start against the Blue Jays.  Rich Hill is 'over the hill' and doesn't even throw 90 MPH these days.  He gave up 4 runs and 7 base runners in 4 innings to the Marlins in his first start for the Rays this season.

The OVER is 8-2 in Yankees last 10 road games.  The OVER is 32-15-4 in Yankees last 51 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.  The OVER is 5-0 in Rays last five games overall.  Take the OVER in this game Friday.

20* NL East GAME OF THE WEEK on Atlanta Braves -124

The Atlanta Braves were swept in their three-game series with the Philadelphia Phillies to open the season.  It's safe to say the Braves will be highly motivated for revenge in Game 1 of this series with the Phillies in Atlanta tonight.

Charlie Morton has been one of the best starters in baseball over the past few seasons.  He will be motivated to beat Zack Wheeler after getting out-dueled by him in their first meeting this season on Opening Day.

Atlanta is a perfect 10-0 in its last 10 home games when playing against a team with a winning record.  Philadelphia is 21-52 in its last 73 games as road underdogs.  The Phillies are 5-12 in their last 17 meetings in Atlanta.  Bet the Braves Friday.

15* NBA Friday Late-Night BAILOUT on Houston Rockets +13.5

The Los Angeles Clippers are coming off a massive win over the Phoenix Suns last night in a battle to win the Pacific Division.  This is the perfect letdown spot for them, and I'll gladly fade them in this spot laying 13.5 points to the Houston Rockets.

The Clippers will now be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days.  Kawhi Leonard played 37 minutes last night and Paul George 34 minutes.  Don't be surprised to see one or both of them rest tonight.  Either way, they won't be nearly as motivated against the Rockets as they were against the Suns last night, and they definitely won't be as fresh.

The Rockets have been much more competitive since getting their best player in Christian Wood back healthy.  They are 2-0 ATS in their last two games, taking the Suns to the wire in a 130-133 loss as 14-point dogs and actually upsetting the Mavericks 102-93 as 10-point dogs.  They had yesterday off and will be fresh for this game.

The Rockets are 4-1 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The Clippers are 1-4 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a losing record.  Houston is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings and 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings in Los Angeles.

Plays against favorites of 10 or more points (LA Clippers) - after a home game where both teams scored 100 or more points, playing the 2nd of a back-to-back are 36-13 (73.5%) ATS since 1996.  Roll with the Rockets Friday.

20* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on San Antonio Spurs +7.5

It's time to 'buy low' on the San Antonio Spurs.  They have gone 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall coming in.  But they were a tired team with a lot of games recently.  They had yesterday off and I love the spot for the Spurs.

San Antonio will be out for revenge from a 96-106 road loss at Denver on Wednesday.  This is a double-header so they will be playing in Denver again tonight.  I expect them to be the more motivated team for revenge.

It's time to 'sell high' on the Nuggets after going 7-0 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.  After already beating the Spurs by double-digits just two days ago, they won't bring the kind of intensity it's going to take to beat the Spurs by 8-plus points tonight.

San Antonio is 22-5 ATS in its last 27 games when revenging a road loss by 10 points or more.  The Spurs are 64-34 ATS in their last 88 games when revenging a loss.  San Antonio is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 games as a road underdog.  Take the Spurs Friday.

20* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on New York Knicks +2

The New York Knicks will be highly motivated for a victory tonight after losing five of their last six games coming in.  Those losses came to the Heat, Mavericks, Nets, Celtics and Timberwolves with three of them coming by 2 points or less.  So they have played a tough schedule during this run and they have been competitive.

While it's time to 'buy low' on the Knicks, it's definitely time to 'sell high' on the Grizzlies.  They have gone 5-1 SU & 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall.  But they have played a pretty weak schedule during this stretch with their only impressive win coming on the road at Miami.

This will be the 4th road game in 6 days for the Grizzlies.  While the Knicks are as healthy as they have been all season, the Grizzlies will be without Clarke, Winslow and Melton.  Ja Morant is battling through a back injury as well, though he is expected to play tonight.

The Knicks are 10-1 ATS at home with a line of +3 to -3 this season.  New York is 11-3 ATS in its last 14 games following a SU loss.  The Knicks are 18-8-1 ATS in their last 27 games overall.  Bet the Knicks Friday.