Jack Jones

Jack's Free Pick Tuesday: Mavericks/Warriors OVER 211.5

The books have set this total between the Dallas Mavericks and Golden State Warriors too low tonight.  They are basing it too much off of recent low-scoring games by both the Mavericks and Warriors, providing us with some value to pull the trigger on the OVER.

The Mavericks have gone under the total in eight straight games coming in.  The Warriors have gone under in two straight and three of their last four.  It's just hard to see the Warriors slumping for much longer offensively with all of their talent.  They haven't had a total set of less than 211 points since December 18th.

Head-to-head history indicates this total is too low as well.  The OVER is 10-3 in the last 13 meetings.  The Mavericks and Warriors have combined for at least 217 points in 12 of their last 13 meetings.  I think they easily get to 212-plus tonight to cash this OVER ticket.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

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15* MVC PLAY OF THE DAY on Indiana State +6

The Missouri State Bears are in a massive letdown spot tonight.  They are coming off a 79-69 upset win at Loyola-Chicago as 8-point underdogs to hand the Ramblers their first conference loss of the season.  They are their biggest competition to win the Missouri Valley.

Indiana State is no pushover.  It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Sycamores, who have lost four straight coming in all by 8 points or less.  Three of those came to three of the top teams in the conference in Northern Iowa, Loyola-Chicago and Southern Illinois.  They will be competitive with the Bears tonight as well.

The underdog is 20-5-1 ATS in the last 26 meetings.  The Sycamores are 6-2 SU & 3-1-1 ATS at home this season.  Take Indiana State Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Hornets/Raptors OVER 222.5

This total has been set too low tonight due to recent low-scoring games by both the Toronto Raptors and Charlotte Hornets.  The under is 7-1 in Raptors last eight games overall.  The under is also 7-1 in Hornets last eight games overall.

Charlotte has been a great OVER team all season until recently and so have the Raptors.  Now the oddsmakers have been forced to set this total lower than it should be, and we will take advantage here and back the OVER in a game between two teams with great offenses and suspect defenses.

The Hornets rank 2nd in the NBA in pace, 6th in offensive efficiency and 24th in defensive efficiency, which is why they are such a great OVER team.  The Raptors rank just 17th in defensive efficiency and have been a much more efficient offensive team since they have gotten healthy.

The OVER is 10-3-1 in the last 14 meetings.  The OVER is 5-1 in the last six meetings in Toronto.  The OVER is 11-1 in Hornets last 12 games following a loss by more than 10 points.  The OVER is 7-1 in Raptors last eight games as home favorites.  The OVER is 8-2 in Raptors last 10 home games.  Roll with the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Sacramento Kings +9

It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Boston Celtics coming off their 116-87 road win over the Washington Wizards thanks to a 50-point game from Jayson Tatum.  Now they come back as 9-point home favorites against the Sacramento Kings tonight.

The Kings are playing to well to be catching 9 points, and asking the Celtics to beat them by double-digits to beat us is asking too much.  The Kings have played six straight games where they haven't lost once by more than 6 points.  That includes a 6-point road loss at Milwaukee, and upset win over the Lakers and a 1-point home loss to the Cavaliers.

The Kings simply have the Celtics' number.  The Kings are 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings with three outright wins and their two losses coming by 1 and 6 points.  IN fact, they haven't lost any of their last six meetings with the Celtics by more than 6 points.

Sacramento is rested and ready to go playing just its 2nd game in 6 days.  The Kings are 5-1 ATS in their last six games playing on two days' rest.  The Celtics are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following an ATS win.  Boston is 6-20-1 ATS in its last 27 games following a win by more than 10 points.  Take the Kings Tuesday.

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Detroit Pistons +7.5

I love the spot for the Detroit Pistons tonight.  They will be out for revenge from a 111-117 road loss at Denver on Sunday.  Now they get to face the Nuggets at home here just two days later.  Look for them to easily cover this 7.5-point spread and possibly win outright.

The Pistons have been very good here of late in going 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall with an upset win at Sacramento, a 10-point loss as 13-point dogs at Utah and a 6-point loss at 12-point dogs at Denver.  Now they are back home here where they have gone 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five home games with upset wins over the Spurs as 7-point dogs, the Jazz as 11-point dogs and the Raptors as 9-point dogs.

While the Pistons will be motivated for revenge, the Nuggets won't be all that interested in beating them for a 2nd time in 3 days.  And motivation is everything in the NBA.  Plus, the Nuggets have a huge game on deck tomorrow night at Brooklyn.  They will be looking ahead to that game and overlooking the Pistons.

Plays against road teams (Denver) - after failing to cover the spread in three or more consecutive games against an opponent that has covered the spread in three or more consecutive games are 57-27 (67.9%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet the Pistons Tuesday.

15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Missouri +13.5

This is a great time to 'sell high' on the Auburn Tigers.  I cashed in Auburn in their 80-71 victory over Kentucky on Saturday for their 8th consecutive ATS cover.  But now the Tigers are in a massive letdown spot today off that Kentucky win as they travel to face one of the worst teams in the SEC in the Missouri Tigers.

Well, Missouri was one of the worst teams, but they are as improved as anyone in the conference over the last couple weeks.  Missouri is 4-1 ATS in its last five games overall with a 92-86 upset home win over Alabama as 14-point dogs, a 3-point loss to Texas A&M as 5-point home dogs, a 78-53 win at Ole Miss as 7.5-point dogs and only a 10-point loss at Alabama as 18-point dogs.

Plays against any team (Auburn) - an explosive offensive team scoring 78 PPG or more against a poor offensive team (63-67 PPG) after 15-plus games, after scoring 75 points or more in four straight games are 40-15 (72.7%) ATS over the last five seasons.

Missouri is 5-0 ATS in its last five home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.  The Tigers are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games as home underdogs.  The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Don't be surprised to see Auburn fall flat on its face tonight and lose this game outright.  Bet Missouri Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Southern Illinois +12.5

Southern Illinois is much better than its 10-9 record would indicate and should not be catching 12.5 points against the Loyola-Chicago Ramblers tonight.  In fact, all nine of their losses have come by 12 points or fewer this season.  All four of their conference losses have come by 8 points or fewer, including three by 5 points or less to Missouri State, Northern Iowa and Drake, three of the top teams in the conference.

Loyola-Chicago has been grossly overvalued of late.  They are 1-3-1 ATS in their last five games overall.  They needed OT to beat Bradley as a 13-point home favorite and needed OT to beat Valpo as a 15.5-point home favorite.  They needed a 15-point comeback to win at Indiana State, and they lost outright as an 8-point home favorite to Missouri State.  Their lone blowout win during this stretch came against lowly Evansville, which is getting blown out by everyone.

The Ramblers are 0-8 ATS in their last eight home games after having won eight or more of their last 10 games.  The Salukis are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games following a loss.  Roll with Southern Illinois Tuesday.

20* Big 12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Kansas State +14.5

The Baylor Bears have been overvalued to open Big 12 play this year due to winning the title last year and coming into conference play unbeaten.  They have gone 5-2 SU but 3-4 ATS with all five of their wins coming by 14 points or less.  They even lost outright to Texas Tech as an 11.5-point home favorite and outright to Oklahoma State as a 14-point home favorite.

Conversely, Kansas State has been grossly undervalued in conference play.  The Wildcats are just 2-5 SU but 5-2 ATS.  Amazingly, all five of their losses have come by 13 points or less with four of those losses by 3 points or fewer.  They have been extremely competitive in conference play.  They upset Texas Tech by 11, went on the road and upset Texas as 10.5-point dogs and nearly upset Kansas in a 3-point loss as 6-point home dogs.  They only lost by 2 at Oklahoma as 7.5-point dogs and by 3 at West Virginia as 9-point dogs.

Kansas State is 7-1 ATS as an underdog this season.  The Wildcats are 7-0 ATS in their last seven road games.  Baylor is 0-4 ATS in its last four home games.  The road team is 9-4-1 ATS in the last 14 meetings.  This is simply too many points tonight.  Bet Kansas State Tuesday.