Jack Jones

20* NBA Western Conference TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Thunder/Clippers OVER 226.5

The Los Angeles Clippers are quietly playing as well as anyone in the NBA right now.  A big reason for their success is a healthy return of Norman Powell and the trade for Bogdan Bogdanovic, surrounding Kawhi Leonard and James Harden with plenty of shooting.  The Clippers have thrived offensively scoring 119 or more points in six consecutive games.

Now they play another dead nuts OVER team in the Oklahoma City Thunder.  The Thunder rank 8th in pace and 3rd in offensive rating.  They have scored at least 118 points in six of their last seven games overall despite resting some guys during this stretch.  They may be without two of their best defenders tonight as Jalen Williams is for sure out, and Lu Dort is questionable.

The Clippers and Thunder have combined for at least 232 points in five of their last seven meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* Thunder/Clippers NBA TV Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles +3

The Los Angeles Clippers are quietly playing as well as anyone in the NBA right now.  They are 8-1 SU & 7-2 ATS in their last nine games overall.  A big reason for their success is a healthy return of Norman Powell and the trade for Bogdan Bogdanovic, surrounding Kawhi Leonard and James Harden with plenty of shooting.

The Clippers have thrived offensively scoring 119 or more points in six consecutive games.  They are coming off five straight blowout wins beating Miami by 15 and Atlanta by 23 on the road, and crushing Charlotte by 35, Cleveland by 13 and Memphis by 20 at home.

The Clippers should be fresh playing just their 2nd game in 5 days.  Now they want to show the top seed in the West in the Oklahoma City Thunder that they are for real.  No question the Clippers will be the more motivated team tonight.

The Thunder are going to struggle to find motivation here down the stretch.  They are locked into the No. 1 seed in the West sitting 12.5 games ahead of 2nd place Houston.  They have decided to rest players at times because of it, and tonight they will be without Jalen Williams and possibly Lu Dort, who are their two best defenders.  Life will be much easier on Khawi and Harden without these two.  Bet the Clippers Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Portland Trail Blazers +7.5

The Portland Trail Blazers continue to play hard to try and make the playoffs.  They are only 2 games behind the Suns for the final play-in spot.  The Blazers have gone 19-11 SU & 21-9 ATS in their last 30 games overall.  

The Blazers are rested and will be playing just their 5th game in 11 days.  I expect a big effort from them tonight hosting the defending champion Boston Celtics, a team that is struggling to find motivation right now, and one that is also banged up.

The Celtics are basically locked in to the No. 2 seed in the East.  They are 5 games behind the Cavaliers for 1st place and 7 games ahead of the Knicks in 3rd place with just 12 games remaining.  Their biggest focus right now is to get guys healthy going into the playoffs, not winning games.

That has been evident with their play of late going 2-4 ATS in their last six games with some very concerning results.  They only beat Utah by 6 as 15.5-point favorites, lost outright at home to the Thunder, only beat the Nets by 2 as 11.5-point favorites and beat the Nets again by 8 as 14-point favorites.  They are without Jaylen Brown, and Tatum, Holiday and Porzingis are all questionable to play tonight.  They should not be 7.5-point road favorites as a result.  Bet the Blazers Sunday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference TOTAL OF THE MONTH on 76ers/Hawks OVER 239

The Philadelphia 76ers are a dead nuts OVER team right now.  They are 8-1-1 OVER in their last 10 games with 233 or more combined points in seven of those 10 games.  They are playing a lot of youngsters right now and are all offense and no defense.  They rank 11th in pace and 27th in defensive rating during this stretch.  They have scored at least 120 points in five of their last eight games overall.

The Atlanta Hawks have been a dead nuts OVER team all season.  They rank 2nd in pace this season.  They have added some firepower off the bench during before the trade deadline in LeVert, Niang and Mann that has made them even more of an OVER team.  The Hawks have scored at least 119 points in nine of their last 11 games.

The Hawks are 3-0 OVER in their last three games despite playing two dead nuts under teams in Brooklyn and Charlotte, plus playing the Warriors who were without Steph Curry.  Now they face another OVER team here in the 76ers, and the result should be an absolute shootout.

The Hawks won 132-123 for 255 combined points in their last meeting on March 10th two weeks ago.  The OVER is 6-0 in the last six meetings with 239 or more combined points in all six meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* St. Mary's/Alabama East Region ANNIHILATOR on OVER 149

Alabama is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Crimson Tide rank 1st in adjusted tempo, 4th in average length of offensive possession and 4th in adjusted offense.  This total of 149 is so low for a game involving Alabama right now.

Amazingly, Alabama and its opponents have combined for at least 166 points in 11 of their last 12 games overall.  Better yet, the Crimson Tide and their opponents have gone for at least 153 combined points in 17 consecutive games, making for a 17-0 system backing the OVER pertaining to this 149-point total.

Yes, St. Mary's plays at one of the slowest tempos in the country.  But Alabama plays its game no matter the opponent, and it's St. Mary's that is going to have to change its style a little to match just how potent the Crimson Tide are offensively.  I think Alabama is overrated defensively, so St. Mary's will have plenty of offensive success as well.  Alabama allowed 81 points to Robert Morris last round and has allowed 81 or more points in four of its last five games.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* Baylor/Duke East Region ANNIHILATOR on OVER 143.5

Duke has been a dead nuts OVER team down the stretch when Cooper Flagg has been healthy.  The Blue Devils are 8-1 OVER in their last nine games in which Flagg has started.  They have gone for at least 142 combined points with their opponents in all nine games.

Baylor is going to be forced to try and pick up the tempo to keep up with Duke today.  The Bears are coming off a 75-72 win over Mississippi State for 147 combined points.  Baylor has some of the best guards in the country, but they are limited inside due to injuries to their most important defenders down low.  

Norchad Omier (15.8 PPG) is a great offensive big man but he doesn't have much help defensively, so the Blue Devils should score at will in the paint against him as he tries to avoid foul trouble.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* Sunday Round of 32 Total DOMINATOR on Ole Miss/Iowa State UNDER 146

This is where the loss of Keshon Gilbert (13.4 PPG, 4.1 APG) will hurt Iowa State.  The Cyclones were able to get by Lipscomb 82-55 for just 137 combined points without Gilbert in their opener.  They shot 58.3% as a team and it still stays UNDER the 144-point total.  Nothing will come easy against this elite Ole Miss defense today.

Ole Miss beat UNC 71-64 in the Round of 64 for just 135 combined points, shutting down what was previously one of the hottest teams in the country, and certainly boasts one of the best offenses in the country.  This is actually a step down in class for this Ole Miss defense.

Ole Miss ranks 20th in adjusted defense while Iowa State ranks 8th.  So these are two of the top defensive teams in the country.  Nothing will come easy for either team today, and the UNDER looks like a great bet as a result.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* Jacksonville State/UC-Irvine NIT ANNIHILATOR on OVER 138.5

NIT OVERS have been a great bet for a couple seasons now.  The OVER is 14-4 in 18 NIT games thus far this season.  Books just can't set these totals high enough.  This is one of my favorite OVERS in NIT play today.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* UAB/Santa Clara NIT ANNIHILATOR on OVER 165.5

NIT OVERS have been a great bet for a couple seasons now.  The OVER is 14-4 in 18 NIT games thus far this season.  Books just can't set these totals high enough.  This is one of my favorite OVERS in NIT play today.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* Arkansas State/North Texas NIT ANNIHILATOR on OVER 136

NIT OVERS have been a great bet for a couple seasons now.  The OVER is 14-4 in 18 NIT games thus far this season.  Books just can't set these totals high enough.  This is one of my favorite OVERS in NIT play today.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* Colorado State/Maryland West Region No-Brainer on Colorado State +7.5

I've been riding Colorado State during basically their entire run to win the Mountain West and make the NCAA Tournament.  I'm not about to jump off now. No team in the country has been more underrated down the stretch than Colorado State.

The Rams are 11-0 SU & 11-0 ATS in their last 11 games overall with all 11 wins by 8 points or more. They have absolutely been crushing teams.  A big way to tell just how underrated a team is is with ATS margin.  The Rams covered the spread in those 11 games by a total of 128.5 points, or by an average of 11.7 points per game.

I'm certainly going to keep riding the Rams catching 7.5 points against Maryland.  No question the Terrapins have one of the most talented starting 5's in the country.  But they also have one of the worst benches in the country.  And their depth will be more tested here playing their 2nd game in 3 days.

We saw that play out in the Big 10 Tournament as after blasting Illinois by 23, the Terrapins were upset the next day by Michigan as 4.5-point favorites.  The Terrapins may win and advantage here, but not without a fight from a Rams team that couldn't possibly be playing with more confidence than they are right now.  Bet Colorado State Sunday.

20* NIT GAME OF THE WEEK on Oklahoma State +9.5

The ACC was the most overrated conference in the country and it has played out in the NCAA Tournament with upset losses by Clemson, Louisville and North Carolina.  Only Duke remains in the NCAA Tournament as Sunday's Round of 32.

I'll gladly fade ACC opponent SMU today laying a big number against a Big 12 foe in Oklahoma State.  Asking the Mustangs to win this game by double-digits to beat us is asking too much.

SMU was life and death with Northern Iowa in the final minutes before pulling away late for a 10-point victory.  Oklahoma State will present a much tougher, more athletic opponent today.  The Cowboys put away what was previously a red hot Wichita State team 89-79 in their NIT opener.

The Big 12 clearly looks dominant going 9-1 SU in the NCAA Tournament thus far heading into Sunday's Round of 32.  I'll trust the Cowboys after playing the much tougher schedule this season.  Bet Oklahoma State Sunday.

20* NIT TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Oklahoma State/SMU OVER 155.5

NIT OVERS have been a great bet for a couple seasons now.  The OVER is 14-4 in 18 NIT games thus far this season.  Books just can't set these totals high enough.  This is my favorite OVER in NIT play this week.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* Ole Miss/Iowa State South Region No-Brainer on Ole Miss +5.5

Iowa State has just two wins against NCAA Tournament teams since January 16th, and one of those was Lipscomb.  I think the Cyclones are overvalued after that win against overmatched Lipscomb, and they will get a much stiffer test here against Ole Miss.

This is where the loss of Keshon Gilbert (13.4 PPG, 4.1 APG, 1.7 SPG) will hurt Iowa State.  Ole Miss has some of the best guards in the country who can handle Iowa State's pressure, and Gilbert was a big part of that pressure defensively not even factoring in what he means for them on the offensive end.

Ole Miss ranks 3rd in the country in turnover rate on offense turning it over on just 13% of possessions.  That will be the difference in this game as Ole Miss takes care of the ball offensively and gets good shots each time down.

Ole Miss beat UNC 71-64 in the Round of 64, shutting down what was previously one of the hottest teams in the country, and certainly boasts one of the best offenses in the country.  This is actually a step down in class for this Ole Miss defense.  I also trust Ole Miss head coach Chris Beard immensely.  Beard has 5 wins as a seed line underdog in the NCAA Tournament in his career.  Bet Ole Miss Sunday.

20* Oregon/Arizona West Region No-Brainer on Oregon +5

In Dana Altmann I trust.  He is 17-7-1 ATS in the NCAA Tournament in his career as a head coach.  He always has his Oregon Ducks playing their best basketball of the season down the stretch, and this season has been no exception.  The Ducks have gone 9-1 SU in their last 10 games with their lone loss coming to Michigan State, which had the rest advantage with a double-bye in the Big Ten Tournament.

Oregon should also have what feels like home-court advantage with this game being played in Seattle, Washington.  It's about 4 hours up the coast from Eugene.  No question it felt like a home game for the Ducks when they blasted Liberty 81-52 as 7-point favorites in the Round of 64.  They'll still be fresh after getting to rest their starters and playing just their 2nd game in 9 days.

Arizona made the Big 12 Championship Game and will be playing its 5th game in 11 days as a result.  The Wildcats were gifted that run because they beat a tired Kansas team off an OT game and beat a Texas Tech team that was without two of its top three scorers.  Reality set in with a 8-point loss to Houston as 5.5-point dogs in the championship game.

I just don't trust this Arizona team led by Caleb Love.  He is eventually going to shoot them out of a game in the NCAA Tournament, and I believe this is the game he does.  Bet Oregon Sunday.