Jack Jones

Jack's Free Pick Thursday: Baltimore Orioles +180

I'll take a shot on the Baltimore Orioles this afternoon in the avoid the sweep game against the New York Yankees.  They have lost the last two games against the Yankees by a single run, so they have been close.  I think they have a better than +180 chance of getting over the hump today.

The main reason is because Bruce Zimmerman is taking the ball for the Orioles.  He has been one of the most underrated starters in the league, going 2-2 with a 1.98 ERA and 1.156 WHIP in seven starts.  That includes 1-0 with a 1.80 ERA and 1.100 WHIP in four home starts with the Orioles winning three of those four games.

Zimmerman has posted a 2.77 ERA in three career starts against the Yankees as well, allowing just 4 earned runs in 13 innings.  That includes no earned runs in 9 1/3 innings with 11 K's in two starts against the Yankees in 2022 alone.

The Yankees are just 3-8 (-10.3 Units) in Jordan Montgomery's last 11 starts as a road favorite of -125 or more.  Bet the Orioles Thursday.

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15* MLB Thursday Undervalued Underdog on St. Louis Cardinals +175

The St. Louis Cardinals are showing great value as nearly 2-to-1 underdogs to the New York Mets today.  The Cardinals are one of my favorite sleeper teams in baseball because they have a great lineup, a great bullpen and an underrated rotation that lacks big names.

Dakota Hudson is one of those underrated starters.  He is 3-2 with a 3.06 ERA in seven starts this season and consistently lacks the respect he deserves from oddsmakers.  Hudson has won both of his career starts against the Mets.

Chris Bassitt is getting too much respect from oddsmakers.  He has been dominant on the road but vulnerable at home, going 1-2 with a 3.65 ERA in four home starts.  The Cardinals have the advantage of having already seen Bassitt once this season while the Mets have not seen Hudson yet.

The Cardinals are 19-9 in their last 28 games as underdogs.  The Mets are 0-4 in their last four games following a win.  St. Louis is 8-3 in its last 11 trips to New York.  Roll with the Cardinals Thursday.

20* Celtics/Heat ESPN No-Brainer on Boston +3.5

The Zig Zag theory in the NBA hasn't really worked for years.  However, it has been pretty good in the Conference Finals in recent years going 13-6 SU & 14-4-1 ATS in the last 19 instances.  Teams are much better in this round and fighting to make the NBA Finals, so they tend to be pretty evenly matched.  And this series with Boston and Miami is definitely evenly matched.

These have been my two favorite teams to back in the playoffs because I have believed both are underrated.  They are two of the best defensive teams in the NBA as well.  I cashed in Miami in Game 1, but I'm going the other way with Boston in Game 2.

The Celtics were without both Al Horford and Marcus Smart in Game 1.  Well, Smart is back for Game 2 but they will still be without Horford.  I think they can pull the upset here.  Jimmy Butler went off in Game 1 and won't be nearly as efficient.  It's hard to expect the Heat to shoot 30-of-34 from the FT line again, too.  The Heat will be without Kyle Lowry, plus Max Strus and P.J. Tucker are both banged up.

Boston is 15-4 ATS in its last 19 games following a road loss by 10 points or more.  The Celtics are 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine games as road underdogs.  Boston is 13-6 ATS in its last 19 trips to Miami.  Bet the Celtics Thursday.

20* MLB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Cleveland Guardians -123

The Cleveland Guardians will bounce back from a 5-4 loss to the Cincinnati Reds in this interleague rivalry.  I like their chances with Cal Quantrill on the mound.  He has posted a 3.93 ERA and 1.282 WHIP in six starts this season.

Quantrill will be opposed by Tyler Mahle, who is 2-4 with a 5.16 ERA and 1.446 WHIP in eight starts this season, including 2-2 with a 6.50 ERA and 1.500 WHIP in four road starts.  Mahle has never beaten the Guardians, going 0-2 (0-4 Money Line) with a 4.96 ERA and 1.592 WHIP in four career starts against them.  Take the Guardians Thursday.