Jack’s Free Pick Friday: Orlando Magic -6.5 

The Magic are fighting for a playoff spot in the East.  They have been all in and have been playing their best basketball of the season of late, going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall with wins by 29, 10 and 23 points. 

Orlando is 12-1 ATS after four or more consecutive under over the last three seasons.  The Magic are 7-0 ATS after playing two consecutive home games this season.  The Grizzlies are 3-19 SU & 6-16 ATS in their last 22 road games.  The Magic are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games. 

Plays on home favorites (Orlando) - off a home blowout win by 20 points or more against opponent off a home win scoring 110 points or more are 69-36 (65.7%) ATS since 1996.  Bet the Magic Friday.

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15* Saint Louis/VA Tech TruTV Late-Night BAILOUT on Virginia Tech -10 

Virginia Tech gets Justin Robinson back, their best player.  They are the most dangerous 4-plus seed in the entire tournament now.  Virginia Tech beat Duke late in the season, lost to Florida State in OT, and lost to Virginia by 6.  They showed they could play with anyone down the stretch. 

Virginia Tech is 10-1 ATS as a neutral court favorite of 6.5 to 12 points.  They are winning by 17.5 points per game in this spot.  The Hokies are 6-0 ATS in their last six Friday games.  Virginia Tech is 5-1 ATS in their last six neutral site games.  Roll with Virginia Tech Friday. 

15* CBB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Mississippi State -6 

The Mississippi State Bulldogs are on a roll to close the season.  They are 7-3 SU in their last 10 games overall and their only losses came on the road to Auburn and Tennessee (twice). 

Plays against an underdog (Liberty) - off a win over a conference rival as an underdog of 6 points or more, a top-level team (80% wins or more) playing a team with a winning record are 33-9 (78.6%) ATS since 1997. 

The Bulldogs are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 Friday games.  Mississippi State is 4-1 ATS in its last five NCAA Tournament games.  The Bulldogs are 35-16-1 ATS in their last 52 games off an ATS loss.  Roll with Mississippi State Friday. 

20* Ohio State/Iowa State TBS No-Brainer on Iowa State -5.5 

Iowa State is fully healthy for basically the first time all season.  And it was nice to see what they were capable of when fully healthy and focused in the Big 12 Tournament.  They won their conference tournament by beating Baylor (by 17), Kansas State (by 4) and Kansas (by 12). 

I think the Cyclones are one of the most talented teams in the country, and they are certainly under-seeded.  I fully expect them to make a deep run.  They have rabid fans that will travel the six hours to Tulsa, and if they make the Sweet 16, it’s only three hours from Ames to Kansas City, which is where the Big 12 Tournament was held. 

Ohio State doesn’t even belong in the NCAA Tournament.  The Buckeyes went just 19-14 this season nd struggled mightily down the stretch.  They went just 3-7 SU & 4-6 ATS in their last 10 games overall with their three wins coming over Northwestern, Iowa and Indiana.  They went 0-5 against NCAA Tournament teams not named Iowa during that stretch with all five losses coming by 6 points or more, and three by double-digits. 

Ohio State is 0-6 ATS when playing with five or six days’ rest over the last two seasons.  Iowa State is 8-1 ATS as a neutral court favorite of 6 points or less or PK over the last three years.  The Buckeyes are 0-8 ATS in their last eight NCAA Tournament games.  Ohio State is 0-6-1 ATS in its last seven vs. Big 12 opponents.  These four trends combine for a 28-1 system backing the Cyclones.  Take Iowa State Friday. 

15* CBB Friday Afternoon Line Mistake on Tennessee -17.5 

Tennessee plays Colgate.  Colgate has no chance of staying within 17.5 points of Tennessee. The Vols will roll by 20-plus in this showdown. 

The Vols are highly motivated following a bad loss to Auburn in the SEC Tournament.  Colgate lost to New Jersey Tech in the non-conference, and they lost to Syracuse by 21 on the road and South Florida by 10 on the road.  They also lost by double-digits on the road to Penn State and Pitt, while also losing to Navy on the road. 

Tennessee is 8-1 ATS after a a game with 5 or less offensive over the last 3 seasons.  The Vols are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games following double-digit loss.  Bet the Vols Friday. 

25* Round of 64 GAME OF THE YEAR on Cincinnati -3 

This is my favorite play of any of the Round of 64 games.  This is also the first game on the board Friday, so start your day a winner.  I really think Cincinnati is under-seeded getting a #7 seed.  They went 28-6 this season in what turned out to be a loaded American Athletic Conference. 

Four teams made the NCAA Tournament from the AAC in Cincinnati, Houston, UCF and Temple.  And the Bearcats got their revenge from two regular season losses to Houston with an impressive 69-57 win over the Cougars in the AAC title game. 

There’s probably not a player in the tournament I trust more with the game on the line than Cincinnati’s Jarron Cumberland.  He averages nearly 19 PPG and can get his own shot whenever he wants.  But this is a deep Bearcats team with six players averaging at least 8 PPG. 

One of my favorite things about this game is that the committee basically made up for under-seeding the Bearcats by basically giving them a home game.  This game will be played in Columbus, Ohio, which is just a 90-minute drive from Cincinnati’s campus. 

They’ll be up against an Iowa team that really faded down the stretch, which is become a common theme for them in the Fran McCaffery era.  The Hawkeyes are just 4-6 SU & 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  Their only four wins came against Northwestern, Rutgers, Indiana & Illinois, which are four of the worst teams in the Big Ten. 

The Hawkeyes needed buzzer beaters to beat both Northwestern and Rutgers, and they needed a late 3-pointer to force overtime against Indiana at home, where they eventually won.  They were blasted by 21 points by Michigan in the Big Ten Tournament. 

Cincinnati is a team that plays similar to the way Michigan does.  They are a physical team that slows down the tempo, always looking for the best shot, and they’ll make Iowa play defense for 30 seconds.  The Hawkeyes don’t play much defense.  

 Iowa is better against teams that want to run with them, and Cincinnati does not fit the bill.  The Hawkeyes have been terrible against teams that slow it down and control the tempo.  And that’s how I see this game playing out.  I also don’t expect Iowa fans to travel that well because they have lost faith in this team down the stretch. 

Iowa is 3-14 ATS in road games off a loss over the last three seasons.  The Hawkeyes are 1-7 ATS in their last eight eight NCAA Tournament games.  I think Cincinnati is by far the superior team, and with home-court advantage, this is a very short number to have to lay with them.  Bet Cincinnati Friday.