Jim Feist

It’s tough to confidently take Rutgers against Washington straight up, but the Scarlet Knights can cover the spread tonight because I think this has the setup of a competitive home game in Piscataway. We’re looking at a number around +4.5 to +5.5, which will give Rutgers some breathing room in what I expect to be a relatively close game. Washington is getting listed as just a slight road favorite at multiple books/previews, with totals around 140.5 to 142.5, and those games usually come down to a few possessions late with the dog cashing.

That slight tilt towards the Huskies is the first reason to back Rutgers on the line. Home court matters, and this is clearly being portrayed as a huge game for Rutgers’ conference positioning coming into Jersey Mike’s Arena. Local media is preaching to the Scarlet Knights that they need to win this game to keep pace and referring to tonight as their opportunity to bounce back from that road setback. Plus, when spreads are this short, crowd advantages matter more than ever in a Big Ten game where tempo will likely come down and possessions will be at a premium.

Speaking of betting previews, another reason to think Rutgers is live to cover tonight is recent ATS trend support. Rutgers has gone over the spread in 10 of its last 14 games. While they haven’t racked up many wins straight up, recent history shows games have been closer than expected when betting on Rutgers and that means the market may not have fully caught up to them just yet. That is exactly the betting profile you want to see when rooting for a home dog.

Last but not least, that total helps Rutgers’ chances to cover as well. The lower total obviously means fewer possessions and less of a chance for Washington to blow the game open. If Rutgers can avoid big scoring droughts, limit turnovers, and keep Washington out of the gym on easy transition baskets, they can keep it close enough to hang around inside the number late and win the game outright.

Jim's Play: 602. Rutgers (Big 10 Game of the Month)

Dayton has a very fair case to play anywhere from pick ‘em to play on the favorite side tonight because this is one of their better home-floor spots at UD Arena against the Billikens who are coming off a very emotional road win over VCU. Dayton has won three straight at home, and the Flyers picked up a good win against Duquesne behind a complete game from Amael L’Etang which is big because his presence inside allows Dayton to compete on the glass and not get pushed around by SLU’s size and depth. St. Louis has been the better team on paper all season long and have been really fantastic, but they’re also fresh off of a high intensity game against VCU that went to extra emotions late with players getting tossed in the final minute of the game. Billiken games typically come with some sort of flat start or letdown on the road element baked in, and the fact that the spread has settled in the Saint Louis -4.5 to -5.5 area indicates that the market thinks Dayton’s home court advantage will play a factor in the game. That opens up some value on the road side for Flyers backers in what I expect to be a close A-10 matchup. If Dayton can avoid the disastrous start they had in the first meeting, take care of the basketball, and get decent scoring from outside of Bennett and L’Etang, they should stay within the betting number and are capable of pulling the upset late.

Jim's Play: 608. Dayton 

Missouri can definitely cover the spread tonight against Tennessee. The reasons: this is a short home underdog number in what should be a close SEC matchup. Most books opened Tennessee around +4 and drifted down to approximately +3.5, showing respect for Missouri’s homecourt and anticipating a close game in Columbia.

Home-court and game script are two of the biggest angles I look at when analyzing college basketball games. Tennessee has been the better-ranked team this season, but Missouri has played much better than its overall profile suggests at Mizzou Arena, and at a spread number like this (+3.5/+4.5), all the road team has to do is stay in the game, limit their chances of letting the favorite pull away with extended scoring droughts, and strike when they have the opportunity. Plus, a number of these previews paint this game as a matchup that will come down to who executes the best late as opposed to who has the clear talent advantage on paper.

Tempo/possessions are also an angle why Missouri can cover. The game is not projected to be a total track meet as both teams play at roughly a mid-60s pace and both defenses can create turnovers, which typically leads to a lower-scoring game where each additional rebound and “empty” trip down the court is amplified. Games like this typically benefit the home team getting the points.

Lastly, Missouri simply has more to play for tonight. They are playing in a pivotal stretch for their NCAA tournament resume and have a ton of motivation in this marquee home matchup, while Tennessee will likely come in feeling confident after ripping off several wins in a row and could very well be priced up near their current high-water mark. When you have a short line, home team urgency, and crowd advantage that typically leads to one- or two-possession games at the finish.

Jim's Play: 668. Missouri

NC State and Virginia have a decent UNDER case tonight due to the total ranging from 151.5 to 152.5 points. That is a large number for any game in Charlottesville when Virginia can control tempo for extended stretches. A lot of betting previews have the game being listed in that neighborhood already so the market is anticipating points scored which creates potential value on the under if the game plays even slightly slower than advertised.

The best reason to expect an under is game environment and game script. This game is at John Paul Jones Arena and Virginia is favored by about 5.5 to 6.5 points. Those two factors usually lead to a game script where Virginia tries to dictate pace, force NC State to execute in the half court, and avoid playing in a track meet. Virginia getting a lead also helps the under because it lengthens possessions and limits transition opportunities for the team falling behind.

NC State also offers up some situational reasons to go under. The Wolfpack just played in a highly emotional rivalry game where they blewout North Carolina. In that game, they played one of their best of the season and shot the ball extremely well while only turning the ball over four times. NC State will have a hard time matching that level of offensive efficiency right away on the road against a ranked opponent and even a slight decrease in shooting percentages can matter against a low 150s total.

While a lot of previews mention Virginia’s improved offense and propensity to score more points than previous UVA teams, that is exactly why the total is getting pushed up to where it is. If either team goes into a cold shooting slump from three or Virginia’s defense forces NC State into late-clock situations, this game could end up in the 74-70 / 75-71 neighborhood and stay under most posted totals.

Jim's Play: 615. NC St/Virginia UNDER 

Take: 508. Hawks -13 (4:40 PT / 7:40 ET)

Atlanta draws Washington at State Farm Arena, and the Wizards have been one of the league’s weakest road teams. The Hawks’ scoring depth and ability to control pace should overwhelm a Washington defense that has struggled all season. Atlanta is positioned to cover comfortably at home.

I like Minnesota to cover against Portland on Tuesday for a few reasons. First, this is the perfect bounce-back spot against a Blazers team that not only looks like they’re on upset alert but could very well be without a key rotation player. Recent news coming out of Portland has revealed Deni Avdija was ruled out for tonight’s game with a back issue. Avdija is a big part of their scoring and playmaking abilities as well as two-way balance, so Minnesota should have a slight advantage if they’re without him. Minnesota also dropped a tough one to Philadelphia on Monday, so Wolves-specific sites around the state have been advertising tonight’s game against Portland as must-win with an emphasis on defensive focus/urgency. This quickly turning into a tight Western Conference playoff race, Cover against Portland tonight and reset the challenge. Finally, Minnesota can actually cover the point spread based on recent meetings. The Wolves beat Portland 133-109 back on Feb. 11 and have won the first two contests against Portland this season, showing they can absolutely explode for wins when their offense is clicking. Road favorites are never guarantees, but if Minnesota limits their opponents on the perimeter, controls the boards, and exploit Portland’s weaker rotation, the Wolves will cover on Tuesday. 

Jim's Play: 521. Timberwolves (NBA Northwest Game of the Month)