Jim Feist

Sunday’s matchup between the Cleveland Browns and the Las Vegas Raiders features two struggling teams, each entering the contest with a 2–8 record, and both dealing with significant offensive inconsistencies that point strongly toward a low-scoring game. Cleveland’s offense has been among the least productive units in the NFL, averaging just over sixteen points per game. Quarterback Dillon Gabriel has thrown for 937 yards this season, while running back Quinshon Judkins leads the team with 620 rushing yards, but the Browns have struggled to generate explosive plays or sustained drives. With Gabriel not in Sunday's game, the Browns have announced that Shedeur Sanders will be getting start.  The Raiders aren’t faring much better on the offensive side: quarterback Geno Smith leads the team with 2,082 passing yards, and running back Ashton Jeanty has produced 554 rushing yards, yet Las Vegas has consistently fallen into long scoring droughts and remains near the bottom of the league in points per game.

The Raiders defensive unit, while not elite, has benefited from the slow pace and inefficiency of their offenses, which naturally shortens games and suppresses scoring. The Browns have the 2nd rated defense in the NFL and top rushing defense. Cleveland’s defense thrives when forcing opponents into long, methodical drives, and the Raiders have shown an ability to limit big plays, even if they give up yardage between the 20s. With neither team equipped to push the tempo or create frequent explosive plays, this matchup sets up as a grind-it-out contest dominated by field position, conservative play-calling, and long stretches of clock-draining possessions.

Given the sluggish offenses, the reliance on short passing and predictable run schemes, and the tendency for both teams to stall in the red zone, this game profiles as a strong candidate to go UNDER the total. 

Jim's Play: 257. Browns / Raiders UNDER 

Sunday’s Seahawks-Titans matchup sets up as a grind, and the profile points to the Under. Seattle arrives at 7-3 with a top-tier defense (allowing 19.3 ppg, 6th) and a balanced offense that doesn’t need to force pace on the road. Quarterback Sam Darnold (2,541 pass yards), Kenneth Walker III (606 rush yards), and Jaxon Smith-Njigba (1,146 rec yards) headline the production, but Seattle has increasingly leaned on defense and situational football to win-an approach that shortens games. 

 On the other side, Tennessee is 1-9 and ranks at or near the bottom of the league offensively: 14.3 points per game (32nd), 163.6 passing yards (30th), 78.9 rushing yards (32nd). QB Cam Ward (1,954 pass yards), Tony Pollard (502 rush yards), and Chig Okonkwo (337 rec yards) top the Titans’ stat board, but sustained drives have been elusive and explosive plays scarce. 

Put together, Seattle’s stingy scoring defense plus Tennessee’s league-worst output create a narrow scoring corridor. If the Seahawks play from ahead, they can lean on the run and their pass rush; if the game stays tight, the Titans’ conservative approach and third-down struggles keep the clock moving. Either way, the matchup math favors limited possessions and red-zone stalls, making this a strong lean for the game to stay Under the total.

Jim's Play: 249. Seahawks/Titans UNDER 

The New Orleans Saints enter Sunday’s NFC South matchup with a 2-8 record, while the Atlanta Falcons come in at 3-7, both teams searching for momentum in a division that remains wide open despite their struggles. The Saints’ are led by Alvin Kamara who continues to anchor the ground game with 460 rushing yards. Chris Olave has also been a standout, leading the team with 664 receiving yards. Atlanta, despite its slightly better record, has averaged only about 19.5 points per game, reflecting an offense that has had difficulty sustaining drives and finishing possessions.

While neither team has had the season it hoped for, New Orleans enters this matchup with clearer strengths and a more stable identity. Offensively, the Saints have improved week by week, showing better balance between the run and pass and more consistency in sustaining drives. With Kamara contributing both on the ground and through the air, and Olave continuing to produce at a high level, New Orleans possesses enough firepower to pressure an Atlanta defense that has struggled against multidimensional offenses.

Defensively, the Saints hold the most significant advantage. Their front seven plays with physicality and discipline, giving them the ability to generate pressure and force Atlanta into uncomfortable third-down situations. The Falcons have frequently stumbled in these situations all season, particularly on the road, where their offensive rhythm tends to disappear. New Orleans’ ability to close down the run and disrupt timing in the passing game gives them a blueprint to control the pace and force Atlanta into mistakes.

Playing at home in the Caesars Superdome only strengthens the Saints’ position. The energy of the crowd and the comfort of the environment historically give New Orleans a noticeable edge, while Atlanta has shown vulnerability away from home. The Falcons’ tendency toward slow starts and turnovers in hostile environments further tilts the matchup toward the Saints.

Taking all factors into account - stronger individual production, a more reliable defense, home-field advantage, and Atlanta’s ongoing inconsistency - New Orleans is well positioned to win and cover the spread in this divisional showdown.

Jim's Play: 260. Saints 

The Eagles head into this NFC East battle with an impressive 8–2 record, sitting comfortably atop the division and showcasing one of the league’s most complete rosters.  Meanwhile, the Cowboys are at 4–5–1, battling to stay relevant in the division and facing the pressure of hosting this matchup despite being underdogs.  

On the player front, Philadelphia’s spotlight falls on quarterback Jalen Hurts, who has thrown for 1,995 yards, with 16 touchdowns and 6 interceptions through ten games so far.   His dual-threat ability continues to make the Eagles offense dangerous. On the Dallas side, veteran quarterback Dak Prescott has put together a strong statistical season despite the team’s record, posting 2,587 passing yards, 21 touchdowns, and just 6 interceptions, with a passer rating around 102.5. 

While on paper the Eagles appear the superior team, a closer look at the matchup suggests the Cowboys have reasons to believe they can not only keep this game close, but cover the spread at home. Dallas has shown signs of offensive life this season-Prescott’s efficiency and consistent production allow them to stay competitive in games where they might be overlooked. Meanwhile, the Eagles, though talented, have had road performances that show some vulnerability when matched against teams with strong offensive balance and a home-stadium edge.

The home-field factor works in Dallas’s favor: when the Cowboys play at home, the crowd, familiarity, and ability to set tempo give them a boost. If Prescott can protect the ball, establish rhythm early, and feed his playmakers, the Cowboys can keep the Eagles from pulling away. Conversely, if Philadelphia is forced into high-pressure situations by a resurgent Dallas offense, the underdog Cowboys could exploit turnovers or momentum shifts.

The Eagles are the better team overall, but the blend of Dallas’s improved offensive execution, home-field energy, and Prescott’s strong season statistically point toward the Cowboys having the edge to cover the spread in this rivalry game. Expect a tight contest where Dallas keeps pace, challenges the Eagles, and finishes within or above the margin.

Jim's Play: 262. Cowboys 

Sunday’s matchup tilts toward Detroit both on form and on paper. The Lions enter at 6-4 with one of the league’s more balanced attacks - Jared Goff (2,490 pass yds, 22 TD, 4 INT) steering a unit that features Jahmyr Gibbs (732 rush yds, 13 total TDs) and Amon-Ra St. Brown (735 rec yds, 8 TDs), plus a defense that’s producing splash plays behind Jack Campbell and Aidan Hutchinson. 

 The team-level profile matches the eye test: Detroit has out-gained opponents (3,669 to 2,918 total yards) and owns advantages in third-down rate and overall efficiency - the kind of edges that travel week to week even when game scripts fluctuate. 

By contrast, the Giants come in 2-9, and their season-long numbers explain the hill they’re climbing: New York has been out-gained (3,665 to 4,126), with inconsistent finishing on third down and in the red zone. Their top producers are Jaxson Dart (1,417 pass yds, 10 TD),  and Wan’Dale Robinson (638 rec yds), but the offense has struggled to string together sustained drives - and with injuries reshuffling key spots, they’ve leaned on backup plans more than they’d like. 

Detroit’s offensive rhythm and defensive disruption meet a Giants team still searching for stability. With the Lions’ play-action game humming, Gibbs/Montgomery capable of controlling pace, and St. Brown winning leverage downs, Detroit owns more reliable scoring paths - while New York’s margin for error is thin against a front that can squeeze protections and force hurried throws. Add the situational edges and recent form, and the case is strong for the Lions to cover the spread at home. 

Jim's Play: 246. Lions 

Sunday’s matchup in Kansas City pits a surging, high-octane Colts team against a Chiefs squad that’s been uneven but still dangerous at home-and the numbers set up a compelling case for the Chiefs to win outright. Indianapolis arrives at 8-2, leading the AFC South behind elite balance: they rank top-3 in both passing (251.6 yds/g) and rushing (145.3 yds/g) and sit No. 1 in points per game (32.1) while allowing 20.6 on defense. 

 Kansas City, meanwhile, is 5-5 but profiles better than the record: the Chiefs are top-10 in scoring (25.4 ppg) and, crucially, top-5 in points allowed (18.1 ppg)-a defense sturdy enough to bend without breaking against explosive attacks. 

From a matchup lens, Kansas City’s top-5 scoring defense and steady passing output (248.9 yds/g) give them the tools to slow Indy’s tempo and force red-zone field goals instead of touchdowns.  If the Chiefs win third downs on defense and keep their own offense on schedule-leaning on Patrick Mahomes’ efficiency and Travis Kelce’s chain-moving reliability-Arrowhead’s home-field lift can tilt a one-score game their way. Add in situational factors (loud environment, shortened opponent playbook, and Andy Reid’s late-season adjustments), and the setup favors Kansas City converting key possessions down the stretch. The Colts are formidable, but the Chiefs’ defensive ceiling at home plus their balanced scoring profile make them a strong pick to win this one on the money line.

Jim's Play: 254. Chiefs ML