Jim Feist

Michigan’s matchup against USC on Friday, Jan. 2, 2026 at Crisler Center is a great opportunity to win and cover for the Wolverines. The way this matchup plays into how the Wolverines have been separating from teams is exactly why the line is moving as high as it is. A 22 point spread is a lot, but considering Michigan’s overall profile there is nothing about them that says otherwise: 96.8 points per game, 66.5 allowed, 54% shooting from the floor, a +28.2 rebounding margin, and a +19.4 assists margin is the type of profile that builds a lead and then keeps widening it. USC can score (around 89.4 PPG), but again, the other side of the ball (75.3 PPP) has issues holding down opponents, and that type of defensive leakage is a recipe for disaster on the road against a Michigan team that runs out in transition and gets so many high percentage shots when they’re working in the half court. In addition to their backcourt availability issues, with R. Rice done for the season and a number of their other guards banged up or sidelined according to reports, this is a USC team with gaps that become exposed much faster than you might hope against Michigan’s pace, size, and depth, and that matters when you’re trying to hold up against it for the full 40. Michigan also has a number of players that they can rely on to keep things rolling individually without needing a “perfect shooting night” to hit the cover: Yaxel Lendeborg (15.7 ppg) and Morez Johnson Jr. (13.6 ppg) give them reliable production and rim pressure. So when you put it all together the script is pretty clean: Michigan’s ball movement and rebounding creates extra possessions and easy looks, their defense forces USC into difficult looks, and that’s the combination that you need to see as a favorite to get up around double digits early and expand it into the 20s.

Jim's Play: 848. Michigan 

I look for Delaware to cover on Friday, Jan. 2, 2026 against Jacksonville State mostly because the game should be a low-possession, close game where every point matters.  Jacksonville State has also been more inconsistent away from home (1–3 on the road via splits), which is not good when playing as a road team and laying points. Delaware’s best “keep it close” attribute is on the perimeter: the Blue Hens make 8.4 threes per game and hit 35.6% of their 3-point shots. They also have some real shooters like Justyn Fernandez (14.6 ppg, 45.5% from three) and Christian Bliss (13.8 ppg) who can knock down perimeter shots to stop runs and keep them within one or two possessions. It also helps the underdog late-game math wise because Jacksonville State is only 64.6% from the free-throw line, and a missed front end or split trip could be enough to give Delaware a backdoor window to sneak inside the number (or win outright). Finally, while Delaware’s defense isn’t fantastic, it has the efficiency profile to be competitive if they can avoid transition breakdowns and force Jacksonville State to play half court, and with a small spread, there is a lot of wiggle room for Delaware to cover with a one- or two-possession final.

Jim's Play: 844. Delaware 

Florida International has all the juice to cover against New Mexico State on Friday, January 2, 2026 as this is a pick’em affair in the best way possible. The line has opened and settled around FIU +1 and tip time in Miami is noon ET, making it an ideal setup for the host as New Mexico State makes the long West to East trip for the game. New Mexico State also has more questions away from home, losing their last three road games and this being their first C-USA road trip of the league slate is a sneaky spot for routine and energy to make a difference. On the floor, FIU’s offense is the separator: 88.1 ppg and 18.2apg mean that pace and ball movement are a bigger hurdle for NMSU to match on the road. Corey Stephenson gives FIU the best chance at shot-making in the matchup, scoring 18.0 ppg while shooting 50%FG and 46%3P, and in a one-possession spread game those “shot-making” possessions late are the separator. Another potential edge here is at the free-throw line because the scouting data has New Mexico State fouling at a high rate; in a tight game, extra stripe trips can swing both the outcome and the cover. Finally, if FIU can hold their own limiting second chances, NMSU’s offense can stall since the shooting splits from the preview data are all over the place, and with Zawdie Jackson running the show and Stephenson as the closer, FIU have the guard play to get the job done in the last four minutes.

Jim's Play: 834. Florida International