Jim Feist

This matchup Seahawks at Panthers on Sunday, Dec. 28, 2025 (1:00 PM ET) in Charlotte, and Carolina has a real path to staying inside the number. With Seattle priced around -7.5, the Panthers can cover even if they don’t win outright, and they’ve been a different team at home this season at 5-2 in Charlotte. Motivation also favors the Panthers, who are playing with division urgency, while Seattle has already clinched a playoff spot, a setup that often keeps games tighter than the spread suggests. From an angle standpoint, this is a 10:00 AM PT body-clock kickoff for the Seahawks, and those early East-coast starts can lead to slower beginnings and fewer chances to create separation. Seattle is also dealing with issues up front, including LT Charles Cross out, which can impact protection and overall offensive efficiency and helps an underdog cover. Add in a fairly mild weather setup (near 60°F, around 10 mph winds, with only a small chance of light rain), and it profiles more like a steadier, lower-variance game where Carolina can hang around by playing ball-control, shortening the game, and forcing Seattle to earn everything.

Jim's Play: 414. Panthers

Cardinals–Bengals sets up well for an OVER because everything about the environment and game script points to points. The market is already expecting scoring with the total around 53.5 and Cincinnati favored by about a touchdown, which creates a natural “Bengals in front / Cardinals chasing” tempo where Arizona has to stay aggressive deep into the second half.  The game-time weather in Cincinnati also looks unusually friendly for late December: it’s forecast to be cloudy and very warm (high near 69°F) with a breezier afternoon and thunderstorms late, so early and mid-game conditions should be more conducive to passing and kicking than a typical cold, windy AFC North spot. On the matchup side, both defenses are dealing with meaningful losses: Arizona is expected to be without Budda Baker, and Cincinnati will be without edge rusher Joseph Ossai, which can show up as more explosive plays and fewer drive-killing pressures. This also isn’t a spot where you’re fighting season-long tendencies, since both teams have been OVER-friendly (9-6 to the over). I expect lots of scoring in this matchup on Sunday in Cincy. 

Jim's Play: 407. Cardinals/Bengals OVER 

Sunday Night features a major NFC matchup between the Chicago Bears and San Francisco 49ers with both teams sitting at 11-4, making this a direct playoff-positioning game with seeding on the line. The market has largely priced San Francisco around a field goal favorite (49ers -3) with a total near 52.5, and that setup fits the 49ers because their home-field edge and offensive efficiency give them a steadier path to winning by margin. San Francisco has been productive all season, averaging 26.1 points per game (top 10) and about 348 yards per game, and they come in riding a five-game win streak that suggests they can separate late if the game tightens into the fourth quarter. The matchup also tilts toward the 49ers in the trenches: Chicago has a key offensive line concern with right tackle Darnell Wright listed as questionable and reportedly not traveling, which is a major issue against a front that can generate pressure and force negative plays. The Bears are also dealing with multiple defensive injury and illness questions, and that kind of volatility tends to show up most in primetime road spots when depth gets tested. Even with some injury concerns in San Francisco’s secondary, the 49ers can still control this game if their pass rush disrupts Chicago’s timing and forces longer down-and-distance, and their improved special teams, including reliable kicking, helps them close drives and protect a spread in the field-goal range. Put it together and the most likely script is San Francisco dictating pace at home, creating a handful of drive-killing pressures, and doing enough offensively to win and cover.

Jim's Play: 430. 49ers 

Bears at 49ers on Sunday, December 28, 2025 (5:20 PM PT) sets up well for an OVER because the conditions and the matchup both lean offense. Game-time weather in Santa Clara looks pretty clean, with morning fog lifting and a partly sunny day around 57°F with a 36°F low, so you are not dealing with rain or heavy wind that typically drags scoring down. The total is sitting at 52.5, and that number makes sense when you look at how San Francisco has been playing: the 49ers have been averaging 34.4 points over a five-game win streak and have been so efficient that they have not punted on their last 21 possessions, which is exactly the kind of drive-finishing profile that pushes games over the number.  Chicago can help on the other side too, with Caleb Williams and the Bears offense playing better late in the year, and their defense leading the league in takeaways, which can actually help an OVER by creating short fields or sudden-change scoring chances.  Add in San Francisco’s improved special teams and Eddy Piñeiro’s 26-straight made field goals, and you have fewer empty trips and more points in a game that already projects as a high-scoring, prime-time shootout.

Jim's Play: 429. Bears/49ers OVER 

Steelers at Browns kicks off Sunday, December 28, 2025 at 1:00 PM ET (10:00 AM PT), and the game-time setup points toward a grind. The Cleveland forecast calls for rain around the day with temps in the 40s to 50s near early afternoon, and the National Weather Service has southerly winds in the neighborhood of 7–13 mph with gusts from24 mph to 44 mpg, which can disrupt downfield timing and make kicking less reliable. In that kind of rain-plus-wind environment, offenses usually shrink the playbook, leaning more run game and quick throws, which keeps the clock moving and reduces explosive plays. The market is also telling you points should be hard to come by, with the total sitting in the mid-30s (roughly 33.5–34.5 range). On the matchup side, Cleveland’s defense has been one of the league’s strongest by yards and efficiency measures, making long, clean scoring drives tougher to string together, especially on a wet field. Add in Cleveland being without TE David Njoku and Pittsburgh missing starting LG Isaac Seumalo, and it’s easy to see both offenses leaning even more conservative, with more punts, fewer clean red-zone chances, and the kind of field-position, AFC North slugfest profile that supports an UNDER.

Jim's Play:  417. Steelers/Browns UNDER