Jim Feist
Jim Feist
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YESTERDAY'S PLAYS
PICKS IN PROGRESS
Minnesota has one of the most legitimate underdog avenues on Thursday because there’s not quite as big of a pitching disparity as the moneyline makes it seem. We’re likely looking at Taj Bradley for the Twins against Cole Ragans for Kansas City, and while Ragans is the more established name in this game, he comes into his start with a 9.00 ERA after his season debut while Bradley sports a 2.08 ERA entering his first MLB start. Royals are still sitting at favorites hovering around -155 to -158 which means there’s a lot of Kansas City’s home field and overall game strength baked into their price, but the mound matchup alone gives Minnesota a better chance than what you’re being offered.
Minnesota’s easiest path to pulling the upset starts with Bradley limiting the damage and forcing Kansas City to score one inning at a time. They do not need Bradley to be overpowering, merely to keep pace with Ragans for 5-6 innings to keep this game from turning into another Royals blowout. That’s important because Kansas City was able to bust out for 13 runs on Wednesday, but that output was also a massive outlier against their more tame results to open the series, including holding Oakland to 1 run on Monday for a 3-1 win. Minnesota has the capability to keep this game low-scoring as well, and if Kansas City cools off even just a little bit the game becomes a lot more playable for the dog.
Speaking of cooling off, another angle that works here is the bounce-back opportunity for Minnesota. They’re just 1-4 on the year, but the Twins flashed their ability earlier this week that they still have enough pitching and clutch hitting to win these low-scoring affairs, and they do have some dangerous bats in their lineup that can capitalize if Ragans struggles again. Kansas City may be riding a three-game win streak and has owned Minnesota at home, but trends like that can exaggerate how good a team really is, especially when that favorite is trotting out a starter who needs to bounce back from an ERA-366 start.
We’ve covered how Minnesota can win the game, so let’s talk about the Twins actually winning. The ideal underdog script is pretty simple: Bradley gives Minnesota a solid start, they knock a couple of runs off Ragans early, and slowly work this into a low-scoring game where one late rally or one explosive inning ends up being the difference maker. Kansas City has earned the benefit of the doubt at home, but with Bradley matching up against Ragans and the price still sitting in that mid-150s range I think Minnesota is live enough to pull off the upset.
Jim's Play: 955. Twins +1.35
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Jim Feist is the recognized leader in the sports information and sports gaming industry. For more than 30 years his acclaim has become unparalleled, with numerous wins in prestigious handicapping contests. His other endeavors include websites that provide sports information worldwide. Feist is the principal panelist on PRO LINE, America's premier handicapping television show on the USA Cable Network. Year in, year out, Jim sets the standard for all other handicappers to gauge their own success. Experience, knowledge, and a limitless number of contacts and sources throughout the country make Jim the undisputed champion in sports handicapping. For sports information there's only one person to turn to: Jim Feist.
