Jim Feist

Nevada comes into the game following a 2024-25 season in which they finished 17-16 (8-12 in the Mountain West), showing signs of life but also inconsistency in key moments. Their leading scorer entering this season is guard Tayshawn Comer, who averaged 16.2 points, along with about 4.1 assists and 3.7 rebounds per game last season. Meanwhile, UC Santa Barbara enters the 2025-26 campaign with a strong start at 3-1, leading the Big West, and their focal scorer is forward Colin Smith, who is averaging 18.0 points per game, while also contributing about 4.3 rebounds and 1.3 assists.

Saturday’s matchup presents a fascinating clash of styles. Nevada is known for its physical defense, pressuring opponents into mistakes and trying to grind out games. However, their offensive inconsistencies - particularly in shooting and spacing - leave them vulnerable to teams that execute with pace and poise. UC Santa Barbara brings exactly that poise: Smith’s scoring efficiency, coupled with the Gauchos’ methodical offense and strong guard play, gives them a reliable pathway to stay in the game or take control.

On the offensive side for UCSB, the balanced attack allows them to counter pressure by Nevada. Smith can score inside and out, which opens up opportunities for teammates and helps mitigate Nevada’s defensive strengths. On the defensive end, UCSB has shown discipline in limiting transition points and controlling pace, which stands to frustrate Nevada’s typically faster, more chaotic tempo. If UCSB slows the game down and executes their half-court sets, the Wolf Pack’s erratic shooting and reliance on perimeter makes them a live target to fall behind.

Given these dynamics - Nevada’s turnover and shooting issues, UCSB’s efficient top scorer and balanced attack, plus the Gauchos’ upward momentum and confidence - UC Santa Barbara is well placed to cover the spread in this matchup. 

Jim's Play: 609. Santa Barbara

South Florida enters at 6-4 overall, 4-2 in AAC play, riding momentum after a convincing 34-20 win over East Carolina. Quarterback Byrum Brown has been the centerpiece of the Bulls’ offense, throwing for over 2,800 yards on the season while adding mobility that keeps defenses off balance. The Bulls average nearly 31 points per game, and their balanced attack has been complemented by running back Kelley Joiner Jr., who provides consistency on the ground. Defensively, USF has been opportunistic, forcing turnovers in three straight games, and their ability to pressure opposing quarterbacks has helped them control tempo. With bowl positioning on the line, the Bulls have both motivation and momentum heading into Birmingham.

UAB, meanwhile, sits at 3-7, 2-4 in AAC play, struggling to find rhythm under first-year head coach Trent Dilfer. The Blazers have leaned on quarterback Jacob Zeno, who has shown flashes but has been inconsistent against stronger defenses. UAB averages just 23 points per game, and their defense has been a liability, surrendering over 32 points per contest while ranking near the bottom of the conference in both rushing and passing yards allowed. Their inability to stop the run is particularly concerning against a South Florida team that thrives on balance and tempo.

South Florida has covered in three of its last four games as a favorite, while UAB has failed to cover in four of its last five contests.  With bowl eligibility secured and a chance to improve their standing, South Florida has the tools to win decisively. Play South Florida to win and cover the spread on Saturday.

Jim's Play: 197. South Florida 

Saturday’s AAC matchup between East Carolina and UTSA showcases two programs moving in different directions as the 2025 season winds down. UTSA enters the contest with stability, balance, and clear strengths on both sides of the ball, while East Carolina continues to battle inconsistency despite some notable individual performances. With the Roadrunners playing at home, the matchup leans strongly in their favor to not only win but also cover the spread.

UTSA’s offense has been one of the most productive units in the conference. Quarterback Owen McCown has thrown for 2,186 yards, giving the Roadrunners efficient and steady passing production. Complementing him is running back Robert Henry Jr., who has rushed for 983 yards, providing a powerful ground presence that keeps defenses honest. In the receiving game, Devin McCuin leads the team with 567 yards, showcasing the kind of downfield ability that can punish defenses that overcommit to stopping the run. This trio forms the backbone of a UTSA offense that can control tempo, move the chains, and strike quickly when needed.

East Carolina enters the matchup with some standout performers of their own. Quarterback Katin Houser has passed for 2,801 yards, demonstrating his ability to generate big-play moments when given time. Running back London Montgomery adds 637 rushing yards, giving the Pirates offensive balance. However, ECU’s challenge has been translating individual production into consistent scoring drives. Too often, stalled possessions, turnovers, or protection breakdowns have put added pressure on the defense.

Defensively, UTSA holds a clear advantage. Their front seven has been disruptive and physical, consistently forcing opponents into long-yardage situations. That’s a dangerous setup for an East Carolina offense that has struggled when playing behind schedule. If UTSA can generate early pressure and dictate the pace of the game, the Pirates may find themselves fighting uphill for most of the afternoon.

Playing at home inside the Alamodome adds another edge for UTSA. Their crowd energy, comfort in the environment, and strong home record make them especially difficult to beat on their own turf. The Roadrunners’ ability to run the ball, control momentum, and create defensive stops all point toward them taking firm control of the game.

Overall, the matchup strongly favors UTSA. With a balanced offensive attack, a stronger defensive unit, and home-field advantage, the Roadrunners are well-positioned to win and cover the spread against East Carolina.

Jim's Play: 206. UTSA (AAC Game of the Year)

Saturday’s Big Ten showdown between Nebraska and Penn State has the look of a physical, postseason-shaping battle, but the matchup itself sets up well for a surging Nebraska team aiming to make a statement on the road. After several years of rebuilding, Nebraska enters this game with renewed stability, better quarterback play, and one of the conference’s most improved defensive fronts. Penn State, meanwhile, remains talented but has struggled with consistency throughout the season-particularly on offense-making them a vulnerable favorite in this spot. With momentum leaning heavily toward Nebraska, this is a strong opportunity for the Cornhuskers to both win outright and cover the spread.

Nebraska’s offense has been steadily climbing throughout the season behind improved quarterback efficiency and a vastly strengthened run game. Their ground attack, long a staple of the program’s identity, has become a legitimate force again-controlling the clock, wearing down defenses, and setting up high-percentage throws. Against a Penn State defensive unit that has shown cracks against power-running teams and has struggled with depth late in games, Nebraska’s physical style is a major strategic advantage. If the Huskers can dictate tempo early, they can keep the Penn State defense on the field and seize control of the game.

Defensively, Nebraska has taken one of the biggest leaps in the Big Ten this year. Their front seven is playing fast, disciplined football, generating pressure and limiting explosive plays-an area where Penn State has struggled to find consistency. The Nittany Lions’ offense has been prone to slow starts, protection issues, and stalled drives when the running lanes close. Against a Nebraska defense that thrives on forcing long-yardage situations, Penn State will need to play near-perfect football to avoid falling behind early.

Home-field advantage in State College is always significant, but Nebraska’s identity travels well. Their commitment to controlling the line of scrimmage, minimizing mistakes, and wearing opponents down makes them one of the more reliable road teams in the conference. Penn State, by contrast, has been shaky in pressure situations this season, and their inability to sustain offensive rhythm puts them at risk of being overtaken if Nebraska builds momentum.

Altogether, the matchup favors Nebraska in the trenches, in game flow, and in overall consistency. With a disciplined defense, a punishing run game, and better late-season form, the Cornhuskers are poised not just to stay competitive, but to win and cover the spread in this important Big Ten contest.

Jim's Play: 149. Nebraska 

Georgia Tech enters this ACC matchup at 6-4 overall, 4-3 in conference play, riding momentum after a convincing win over Virginia. Quarterback Haynes King has been the catalyst for the Jackets’ offense, combining his passing ability with mobility to keep defenses off balance. Georgia Tech averages nearly 30 points per game, with running back Jamal Haynes providing balance on the ground. Defensively, the Jackets have improved in recent weeks, holding opponents under 24 points per game in three of their last four contests. Their ability to generate turnovers and control tempo has been key to their midseason surge, and they’ll look to continue that against a struggling Pitt offense.

Pittsburgh, meanwhile, comes in at 3-7, 2-5 in ACC play, enduring a disappointing season under head coach Pat Narduzzi. The Panthers have struggled to find consistency at quarterback, rotating between Christian Veilleux and Nate Yarnell, neither of whom has been able to spark the offense. Pitt averages just 19 points per game, ranking near the bottom of the ACC, and their offensive line has struggled to protect the passer. Defensively, the Panthers remain scrappy, but their inability to sustain drives offensively has left the unit on the field too long, leading to breakdowns late in games.

Georgia Tech has covered in three of its last four games as a favorite, while Pittsburgh has failed to cover in four of its last five contests. Expect King to dictate tempo with his dual-threat ability, Haynes to exploit Pitt’s defensive front, and Georgia Tech’s opportunistic defense to limit the Panthers’ scoring chances. With bowl positioning on the line and momentum on their side, the Jackets have the tools to win decisively. Play Georgia Tech to win and cover the spread on Saturday.

Jim's Play: 142. Georgia Tech 

Michigan enters at 9-1 overall, 6-1 in the Big Ten, still in the hunt for a College Football Playoff berth. The Wolverines have leaned on their elite defense all season, allowing just 14.2 points per game, ranking among the nation’s best. Their defensive front, led by Mason Graham and Kenneth Grant, has consistently shut down opposing run games, while their secondary has limited explosive plays. Offensively, Michigan has been efficient but not explosive, averaging 29 points per game, with quarterback J.J. McCarthy managing the offense and running back Donovan Edwards providing balance. Their style of play emphasizes ball control and field position, which naturally keeps scoring totals lower.

Maryland comes in at 6-4, 4-3 in the Big Ten, looking to secure bowl positioning. The Terrapins have been inconsistent offensively, averaging 25 points per game, but quarterback Taulia Tagovailoa has struggled against elite defenses, throwing multiple interceptions in key games. Maryland’s offensive line has been shaky, and facing Michigan’s pass rush will likely force them into a conservative game plan. Defensively, the Terps have been respectable, allowing 23 points per game, and they’ve shown the ability to limit opponents in the red zone.

Given Michigan’s defensive dominance and Maryland’s offensive struggles against top-tier competition, this number feels inflated. The Wolverines are built to grind games out, and Maryland’s defense is capable of keeping the score respectable even in defeat. Expect Michigan’s defense to dictate tempo, Maryland’s offense to struggle to sustain drives, and both teams to lean on conservative play-calling. With Michigan’s ball-control approach and Maryland’s limitations, this matchup projects as a low-scoring affair. Play the game to go Under the total points on Saturday.

Jim's Play: 143. Michigan/Maryland UNDER