Jim Feist

Chicago is sending Ben Brown to the mound, who currently owns a 1.74 ERA with 58 strikeouts. The Giants will counter with Trevor McDonald who owns a record of 2-3 with a 4.15 ERA. Brown has been a pleasant surprise for Chicago this season, posting a 1.44 ERA with 34 strikeouts and eight walks in his last 31 1/3 innings since getting moved into the rotation full-time on May 8. Plus, Brown just pitched against the Giants on Tuesday, June 6 and tossed 5 1/3 shutout innings allowing five strikeouts. Brown has yet to surrender a home run in 56 2/3 innings this season, which should bode well against the Giants who desperately look for big swings to produce offense.

The Cubs are currently 36-34 and seemed to take control of this series with Friday night’s series opener, winning 5-1 behind solid pitching and timely extra-base hits. Michael Busch homered, Seiya Suzuki hit two doubles and drove in a run, while Chicago recorded five of its six hits for extra bases. San Francisco is struggling too, entering Saturday’s game with a 28-42 record. The Giants lost Friday night for the sixth time in their last seven home games, which is notable because it’s not just a small sample fluke. Rather, San Francisco has been really bad at protecting its home field lately.

Pete Crow-Armstrong entered Saturday’s game having gone 6-for-12 with two homers against the Giants during last week’s series. Chicago’s middle of the order also found some much-needed juice again in game one with Busch and Suzuki smoking pitches. San Francisco’s lineup is nothing to sneeze at, particularly for the dangerous Bryce Eldridge. However, they’ve been banged up as of late and the Giants were missing two key hitters in their most recent injury report; both Heliot Ramos and Harrison Bader were still sidelined. A diminished lineup means the Giants need a lot from their remaining core, and that won’t bask against an effective starter like Brown.

There you have it: Why the Cubs will win. They have the pitching advantage, they’re coming off their hottest result in this three-game set, and they’re facing a Giants team that has lost its momentum at home. If Brown delivers another quality start of five or six innings, Chicago should be in good position to win this one.

Jim's Play: 959. Cubs (NL Game of the Week)

Arizona checks a lot of boxes that you like to see from a winner on Saturday. Arizona matches up better on the pitching matchup, recent form and series tilt. As of Friday morning, Michael Soroka is scheduled to start for Arizona and Rhett Lowder is scheduled to start for Cincinnati. Arizona has the edge in terms of their starters’ overall body of work entering this game. Soroka owns a record of 8-3 with a 3.28 ERA and 72 strikeouts compared to Lowder’s 3-3 record with a 5.01 ERA and 31 strikeouts. Soroka also pitched well during his last outing on June 7 against Washington. Arizona’s starter gave up one run on seven hits over seven innings and struck out six batters. Cincinnati’s starter only rejoined the rotation last week after experiencing shoulder inflammation, which means his last outing may not fully project how he competes moving forward. Lowder has to find some consistency again. 

Arizona also won this series opener on Friday, 5-2. Geraldo Perdomo and Jordan Lawlar each delivered timely hits for Arizona in this one. Arizona’s bullpen had to cover 6 1/3 innings after injuring their starter, but still managed to shut down Cincinnati. Cincinnati has lost seven of its last eight games, so they are trending in the wrong direction heading into this series finale. Arizona’s offense has been inconsistent lately, but they were able to scratch across five runs in this one. It’s important they showed they can manufacture runs in this series because late-inning pressure played a big role in Friday’s victory. Arizona was able to overcome an inconsistent start and capitalize on their opponents’ mistakes. When you play on the road in close games, that’s a recipe for success.

Having said that, I think Arizona’s biggest advantage is having Soroka on the mound. If he can provide Arizona with six strong innings of work, they should be able to rely on the same game plan that led to success on Friday. Simply put: create traffic on the bases, hold serve with quality defense and let the bullpen finish games. Arizona is 35-34 and Cincinnati is 32-36 before this game on Saturday. Arizona has the better starter and they’re playing like the hotter team. 

Jim's Play: 955. Diamondbacks 

Texas has several edges in this spot that should help them bounce back on Saturday. For starters, this is an easy ace tilt as the Rangers have the clear advantage with Jacob deGrom taking the hill for New York. DeGrom vs Ranger Suarez is scheduled to start at Fenway Park and they are both sitting at 3.18 ERA entering Saturday, however, deGrom has the superior strikeout rates and run prevention peripherals overall (0.99 WHIP, 84 strikeouts over 70 2/3 innings) compared to Suarez’ 1.14 WHIP and 63 strikeouts in 65 innings. Add into the fact that deGrom looked very sharp against Cleveland on Wednesday allowing three hits over five-plus innings in a 10-0 victory and threw five scoreless innings to notch his 100th career win against St. Louis in his prior start and he profiles as the better option.

The second reason I like Texas here is because Boston’s big 10-1 win Friday feels like more of an anomaly than the new normal. The win snapped a four-game losing streak for Boston improved their home record to just 11-21, and they recently scored the fewest runs in the American League during the month of June. If Boston is still an offensive question mark than Texas just has the better record (34-35 vs 28-39) entering Saturday despite the bad opening day. 

One more reason to back Texas here is that there’s really a good buy-low opportunity on the Rangers in this spot. Friday’s loss could end up setting them up perfectly for Saturday. Suarez was 0-1 with a 3.80 ERA over his last five starts heading into last week and allowed four runs over five innings in his previous outing before winning this week. If deGrom just pitches to his usual level then Texas shouldn’t need much offense to beat Boston, who has struggled all season long at Fenway Park.

Jim's Play: 965. Rangers 

Miami has strong reason to win this series Saturday. The Marlins are just the better team right now. Pittsburgh and Miami both come into this game at 35-35, but Miami won six in a row and nine of its last 10 games to get here while Pittsburgh lost six of its last seven. Miami also took Friday’s opener 8-3 while posting production throughout their lineup and having six different players drive in a run. That’s never a good sign when talking about a lineup being overly reliant on one or two bats, meaning this Marlins offense has more than enough threats. Miami’s staff felt like their lineup had “lengthened out” which will help in games like these where wearing down a shaky opponent with sustained pressure matters.

Miami also holds the advantage on the pitching front. Miami will reportedly use Lake Bachar as their opener which turns this into more of a bullpen game for both sides, but Bachar has impressed this season with a 2.97 ERA and 41 strikeouts. He also was effective in his last outing, throwing two scoreless innings with three strikeouts in Wednesday’s Marlins win. Pittsburgh will counter with Bubba Chandler who is worse in virtually every statistical category coming in with a 2-7 record and 4.91 ERA. If Miami holds any sort of advantage, it’s with their bullpen which Reuters pointed out has been a season-long problem for Pittsburgh and showed yet again in Friday’s loss.

Miami just looks like the better team right now because they have more confidence and consistency on both sides of the ball. Friday’s victory wasn’t a fluke, it was just another example of the Marlins playing complete games where they get enough offense, enough starting pitching depth, and better late-inning execution. Pittsburgh continues to find ways to botch innings and allow big momentum swings. If Bachar can deliver Miami through the front-end without any major damage, Miami should be well positioned to roll with their current momentum.

Jim's Play: 951. Marlins 

Phoenix will likely struggle to score tonight, so take the Los Angeles Sparks to cover the spread. The Sparks have been the hotter team of late, and have also been the better offensive team and more consistent team leading up to this matchup. Los Angeles sits at 6-6 on the season and is coming off a two-game win streak. Phoenix on the other hand has lost eight of its last ten games and owns a record of just 4-10 on the season. 

The Mercury have also lost four of their last five games at home and are currently in a two-game losing streak.  Los Angeles has several advantages over Phoenix, but the biggest one is on offense. The Sparks are scoring 88.7 points per game, which ranks fifth in the WNBA. Phoenix is only scoring 80.8 points per game and ranks near the bottom of the league in that category. Los Angeles also has better field-goal percentage, three-point percentage and assists, indicating a more efficient and complete offense.

Kelsey Plum has been a difference-maker for Los Angeles this season. She is coming into this game averaging almost 25 points and 7 assists per game. Plum gives Los Angeles a legitimate go-to scorer who can create her own shot, as well as get her teammates involved. Dearica Hamby has also had great success against Phoenix this season, including the game earlier this year where she put up 30 points. Plum and Hamby should both have good games and give the Sparks two options that Phoenix simply cannot contain.

The Sparks also have the advantage of their strong play on the road. Los Angeles is 4-1 in games played away from home, while Phoenix is 1-4 in home games this season. Los Angeles has proven they can win on the road, while the Mercury have struggled to take care of opponents at home.

In addition to all of the above, the Sparks also have won the last two matchups against Phoenix this season. They defeated the Mercury earlier this year 97-88 in Phoenix. They have already shown they can put up points against Phoenix’s defense and should feel confident coming into this game.

Expect Los Angeles to run tonight and capitalize on Phoenix’s recent offensive struggles. Look for Kelsey Plum and Dearica Hamby to have another strong game and for the Sparks to cover the small number. 

Jim's Play: 639. LA Sparks 

The Over appeals to me in this matchup as both offenses rank among the best in the WNBA. They’ll clash in a game with significant Commissioner’s Cup stakes as Minnesota and Las Vegas look to solidify their standing with big wins. Minnesota comes into the game averaging the most points in the WNBA at nearly 90 points per game. Las Vegas also has their championship offense clicking behind A’ja Wilson, Chelsea Gray, Jackie Young and Jewell Loyd. 

Minnesota hasn’t necessarily leaned on Napheesa Collier to carry the load this season. Rookie sensation Olivia Miles has changed the look of the Lynx offense and the team has leaned on Kayla McBride, Courtney Williams and Natasha Howard to produce. Minnesota ranks among the league leaders in shooting percentage and offensive rating and averages nearly 90 points per game.

Las Vegas will not back down from that offensive talent, either. The Aces come into this game riding a five-game win streak and scored 105 points in their last game against Portland. A’ja Wilson has been playing like an MVP this season as she’s averaging over 26 points per game. Chelsea Gray and Jackie Young have both facilitated good looks for their teams all season long. Las Vegas has thrived at home when they’ve gotten their pace up and can match the offensive firepower of Minnesota when they’re cooking.

I also like the Over based on the way these two teams play. Minnesota is one of the best offenses in the WNBA, plain and simple. And while the Aces are great defensively, they are much more potent on offense this season. The Aces’ defense has not been as elite as in years past when they won championships. This leaves opportunities for teams like Minnesota who rank among the best offensive teams in the league.

With both offenses thriving on efficient scoring, expect this game to come down to defense. When you have two offenses that can score 85-90 points on their own, the OVER becomes very attainable in a matchup like this with two deserving teams fighting for seeding and momentum.

Jim's Play: 635. Lynx/Aces OVER