Jim Feist

There’s reason to believe both offenses have more recent life in their tank entering Tuesday, which is where the over begins with the St. Louis Cardinals and New York Mets. Both lineups have flashed offensive sparks recently; St. Louis just swept Cincinnati on Sunday with a 5-3 comeback victory, and both clubs have benefited from timely hitting, be it on contact or using speed. The Mets punched out during their series wins against San Diego and Seattle, including some nice at-bats from young guns like Carson Benge.

Neither Dustin May (3-6, 4.59 ERA) nor Freddy Peralta (4-4, 3.63 ERA) profile as shutdown options on the mound, which is the path to the over for this matchup. The series preview has them toeing the rubber in the opener, and while Peralta has electric stuff that can lead to strikeouts, I don’t expect great command from either starter. Should they allow runners to pile up early, the over is in play.

Granted, the Mets bullpen has not been awful, but their rotation has lacked consistency. The Cardinals are also playing much better baseball at the plate than they did in the season’s first few months. Give St. Louis’ lineup enough chances and they’ll put pressure on the Mets’ defense; New York has enough thump and extra-base chances at Citi Field to cash their own payroll if needed.

Early baserunners are the difference between an under and over in this matchup. If the Cardinals can carry over their recent success and the Mets continue to bring their best swings to Citi Field, this one could end up in both bullpens with plenty of runs on the board.

Jim's Play: 955. Cardinals/Mets OVER 

Washington has been one of baseball’s better run-producing clubs all year (scoring around 5.33 runs per game), while San Francisco’ hasn’t gotten enough credit for how hot its lineup has been over its last month of games (.277/.331/.480 with a 126 wRC+). Those are both good recipes for offensive contributions from both sides.

The pitching matchup backs up that thought process too. Washington is trotting out Andrew Alvarez while San Francisco will start Adrian Houser, who arrives for his start at 2-5 with a 5.49 ERA. Houser has been hittable all year and the Nationals’ lineup has enough contact, speed and power across the board with C.J. Abrams, James Wood and Dylan Crews to manufacture traffic early and often.

The Giants should be able to contribute because their lineup has lately while Washington is trusting a less-proven starter. San Francisco bats like Willy Adames, Rafael Devers and Bryce Eldridge have caught fire at the right time, and if Alvarez can’t go deep Nationals’ relievers will be forced to cover innings in an opponent’s ballpark.

Lastly, let’s talk late-game situation as San Francisco’s bullpen imploded Monday night, exiting the game with a nine-run lead in the ninth. San Francisco’s bullpen owns an 8.67 ERA in June and doesn’t have a dependable closer yet. If either Alvarez or Houser has to exit the game with men on base or the game stays competitive late, both offenses should receive opportunities to tack on runs.

Jim's Play: 961. Nationals/Giants OVER (NL Total of the Month)

This Atlanta Dream vs. Chicago Sky matchup on Tuesday night features an interesting matchup of teams, but Dream lean toward winning and covering away from home based on some simple math.

Atlanta enters play at 7-3 against Chicago’s 4-7 record. The spread itself is fair considering how much better Atlanta has looked on both ends of the floor. Chicago simply cannot keep up with the Dream on the defensive end, nor do they consistently put together strong offensive outings while taking care of the basketball.

Atlanta boasts the biggest advantage on the glass. Angel Reese returns home averaging league-high 11.7 rebounds per game while giving Atlanta a massive edge when it comes to second-chance opportunities. That becomes crucial against a Sky team that ranks bottom-five in defensive efficiency while also having issues closing out possessions.

Dream had momentum coming into this game as well. Atlanta posted a huge victory against Washington, winning 109-77. Reese led the way with 18 points and 17 rebounds, proving that Atlanta can cover large margins when its defense creates stops and its bigs dominate down low.

Sky get the benefit of home floor, but they still don’t have several key players who are out with injury. Courtney Vandersloot is sidelined with a knee injury, DiJonai Carrington is out with a foot injury, and Rickea Jackson is out for the season. Without those guards, Chicago’s depth and scoring ability takes a massive hit against a Dream defense that has looked like one of the league’s best units through ten games.

If Atlanta can jump out to an early lead, dominate the glass, and force Chicago into half-court sets, Sky struggles. Atlanta Dream should win by double digits if Allisha Gray and Rhyne Howard provide efficient scoring from the perimeter while Reese dominates on the inside.

Jim's Play: 611. Atl Dream  (Eastern Conference Game of the Week)

Minnesota rolls into Tuesday at 9-2 with the league’s best record riding a seven-game winning streak. Dallas counters at 7-3 and riding its own three-game win streak, but now must win on the road at Target Center. We’ve got a meeting between two high-powered offenses, but Minnesota has been more well-rounded through the first month-plus and leads the league in scoring at 90.3 points per game.

The biggest advantage Minnesota has over Dallas? Olivia Miles. The Lynx rookie is averaging 17.2 points per game and has already established herself as a legit Rookie of the Year contender. Miles also gives Minnesota what Dallas lacks – the kind of lead guard who can run the show at her own pace, create high-quality shots for herself and others, and punish the Wings if they start reaching defensively.

Dallas put up 86 points in the Wings’ first meeting with Minnesota, but that came because the Lynx ran away with the first half on pick-and-roll attacks. Dallas hung around late and won 90-86, even without Napheesa Collier spelling starter Odyssey Sims at the forward spot. Dallas does have plenty of firepower with Paige Bueckers, Azzi Fudd and Arike Ogunbowale, but this Wings team also has more injury uncertainty at the moment.

Odyssey Sims is day-to-day after getting hurt in the last game, but Dallas has had several other key frontcourt and rotation players rehabbing from injuries over the last few weeks. Minnesota still is without Collier and Dorka Juhasz, but they’ve already built a winning formula and winning streak without them this season. Minnesota’s current rotation is set. 

Minnesota just needs to guard without fouling, limit Dallas on the offensive glass and allow Miles and Courtney Williams to take over in the fourth quarter. The Lynx have home court, better record, longer winning streak and — based on last meeting — cleaner late-game structure.

Jim's Play: 614. Min Lynx