Jimmy Boyd

3* HEAVY HITTER on Mercury +145

The market is still pricing New York like the team that won a title, not the team sitting 4-6 over their last 10 with a 115.4 defensive rating.

Liberty are without Satou Sabally and Leonie Fiebich.

That's real frontcourt and wing depth gone.

Rebecca Allen sliding into the starting lineup is a downgrade, and it thins the bench in a game where Phoenix will grind possessions.

Mercury are 5-5 over their last 10 with a defensive rating of 107.3, more than eight points better than New York's 115.4.

Alyssa Thomas at 33.8 minutes a night and Kahleah Copper at 20.7 PPG give Phoenix two matchup problems, and Copper specifically has a history of going off in this building.

Rest matters here too.

Phoenix has 3 days off.

Liberty has 2 and is on the road.

Small edge, but it stacks.

The opposition case is real.

Liberty's offense at 112.2 with Stewart at 21.5 and Ionescu at 15.5 is the better unit on paper, and their .53 eFG% edges Phoenix's .51.

If Stewart drops 30 this line looks silly.

But that offense has been carrying a defense that gives up nearly 4 points per 100 more than it scores, and now they're missing two rotation pieces against a physical Thomas-led group that plays at 95.7 pace and wants to slow the game down.

At +145 I only need Phoenix to win this outright 41% of the time.

I'll take that price with the injury edge and the rest edge.

I like the Mercury

4* VEGAS INSIDER on Twins +150

The pitching matchup is what's driving this line, and I get it.

Mariners starter Logan Gilbert is at 3.44 ERA with a 3.64 xERA and Twins lefty Connor Prielipp is at 4.73 ERA.

That's real.

But Prielipp's 4.05 xERA says he's been pitching better than the surface number, and his last time out he went 5.2 innings and allowed 1 earned run on 2 hits against Oakland.

He's throwing the ball well right now.

The bigger story is what's happening in Seattle.

The Mariners are 2-8 in their last 10 and on a three-game skid.

The Twins are 7-3 over their last 10.

Opposite directions, and the market hasn't fully caught up.

Seattle's infield is a mess.

J.P.

Crawford and Brendan Donovan are both on the 10-day IL, plus Will Wilson on the 60-day.

That leaves Colt Emerson and Weston Wilson patching together the left side against a Twins lineup that still has Royce Lewis, Josh Bell, and Ryan Jeffers in the middle of the order.

Yes, losing Byron Buxton hurts.

He's the best bat on the roster.

But at +150, I'm not paying full price for a Twins team missing one hitter against a Seattle club that's missing three infielders and playing its worst baseball of the season.

Minnesota is 56-55, Seattle is 53-58.

The underdog is the better team right now, and the number should be closer to a pick'em.

I like the Twins

4* VEGAS INSIDER on Royals/Rockies: under 12

Kansas City is running out a lineup that's missing Bobby Witt Jr., Vinnie Pasquantino, Maikel Garcia, Kyle Isbel, and Jonathan India.

That's the top of the order, the middle of the order, and two everyday defenders.

What's left is Salvador Perez, a rookie catcher hitting leadoff, and a bunch of names most Royals fans couldn't pick out of a lineup card.

Colorado's lineup isn't much better.

TJ Rumfield, Kyle Karros, Cole Carrigg, Troy Johnston.

Hunter Goodman is the one real bat, and he's the subject of trade deadline chatter.

Two bottom-third offenses at 43-67 and 46-65 don't automatically light up the scoreboard just because the game is in Denver.

I hear the opposition on Ryan Feltner.

Rockies righty has been cooked lately, 13 earned runs over his last 7.1 innings, and his 5.85 xERA says the process matches the results.

That's the case for the Over.

My counter is simple: you still need bats to punish him, and Kansas City's projected lineup has a rookie hitting third (Jac Caglianone) and Andrew Velazquez hitting ninth.

Feltner can give up 5 runs in 4 innings and this game still lands under 12.

Royals starter Luinder Avila isn't pretty at 4.95 ERA, but his 4.83 xERA and 0.337 xwOBA say he's roughly what the surface stats show.

Weather is a non-factor at 79 degrees with a 5 MPH wind.

The series opener Friday landed 3-1 with these same rosters.

I like the Under

5* NO BRAINER on White Sox +160

The White Sox are 58-51 and sitting atop the AL Central, yet the market is pricing them as a solid dog at +160.

That number is built entirely off the pitching line on paper.

That's where the value opens up.

Yes, Rays starter Drew Rasmussen has a shiny 3.07 ERA and just threw 7 innings of 1-hit ball against Cleveland with 9 strikeouts.

That's the opposition case, and it's a real one.

But look at the four starts before that: 5 IP with 2 ER against Toronto, 2.1 IP with 6 ER against the Yankees, 5 IP with 5 ER against Houston, 6 IP with 0 ER against Arizona.

That's one dominant outing sandwiched by mediocrity.

His xwOBA of .275 is good, not Cy Young.

The market is pricing the last start, not the profile.

Chicago's lineup is rolling.

Munetaka Murakami has 24 homers and a .381 OBP in his rookie year, and the White Sox put up 4 bombs in yesterday's 6-1 win over this same Rays team.

Andrew Benintendi and Miguel Vargas round out a middle of the order that handles righties.

White Sox starter Noah Schultz and his 6.15 ERA are the concern, no way around it.

But Chicago is running Jordan Hicks as an opener to shield him from the top of Tampa's order, and Rasmussen has coughed up 13 earned runs across three of his last four starts anyway.

The pitching gap the market is pricing isn't as wide as +160 implies.

I like the White Sox

1* Free Pick on Calgary/Hamilton: over 59½

Calgary is the reason this number sits at 59.5, and it's the reason it's still not high enough.

The Stampeders have gone Over the total in all 7 regular-season games in 2026.

That's not a small sample of trend-hunting.

That's a full offensive identity.

They're coming off a 52-point performance against Winnipeg in Week 8.

Jalen Philpot has put up 224 yards and 2 touchdowns over his last two games.

This offense is humming.

The Calgary defense is the other half of the story.

They gave up 30 to Winnipeg in a win, and surrendered 37 and 38 in prior losses.

Every Stampeders game is a track meet whether they want it or not.

The opposition case is real and I'm not dismissing it.

Hamilton has averaged just 16.3 points per game in the three games since Bo Levi Mitchell hit IR, and losing Bridges and Ternowski thins the receiver room further.

Braxton Hill returning at linebacker helps their defense.

Here's why it doesn't kill the Over: Calgary can clear this number on their own.

Take Hamilton at 17 points and Calgary only needs 43.

They dropped 52 last week.

The math still works even if Hamilton is a shell of itself.

The weather is the one variable I respect.

Thunderstorms at kickoff can flip any total.

But a slick-ball CFL game with big fields and 3-down football often produces more possessions and more short fields, not fewer.

I like the Over

5* NO BRAINER on Saskatchewan +100

Saskatchewan lost this same matchup 36-34 on July 23.

Now I get the rematch at +100.

That's the number I want.

The history here matters.

Edmonton has not swept a back-to-back series against the Roughriders since 1957.

That's nearly 70 years of one team splitting or losing the return leg.

Books know it.

That's a big reason a 6-1 Edmonton club is only sitting at pick'em at home.

The opposition case is real.

A.J.

Ouellette and Rolan Milligan Jr. are both on the six-game injured list with knee injuries.

That's a top back and a top defensive back gone.

Samuel Emilus, the team leader with 448 receiving yards and 5 touchdowns, is a game-time call.

I'm not pretending that doesn't sting.

Here's why it doesn't kill the play.

Rookie back Quali Conley has averaged over five yards per carry and put up 107 yards across his last two starts.

The run game isn't cratering.

And Trevor Harris was two points from winning last week with the same offense that just lost 34 points worth of production wasn't the problem, execution was.

Harris publicly owned the missed throws from the first meeting.

Quarterbacks who lose a two-point game to a divisional rival and then get them again seven days later tend to show up sharp.

Edmonton also just gave up 34 points at home to this exact offense.

Even money in a rivalry rematch where the market is pricing revenge and history correctly, but not quite enough for me to pass.

I like the Saskatchewan