Jimmy Boyd

4* VEGAS INSIDER on Mystics/Sky: under 166

This total is built on numbers that no longer match the rosters taking the floor.

Start with Chicago.

The Sky are without Rickea Jackson (18 PPG) for the season and Skylar Diggins (14.2 PPG) has been shut down.

That's their two best perimeter scorers gone.

What's left is an offense posting a 99.4 offensive rating over the last 10 games.

They're shooting 43% from the floor and 31% from three.

Natasha Cloud is day-to-day on top of it, and with Chicago out of playoff contention there's no incentive to push her.

Washington isn't whole either.

Sonia Citron is out, and she's the leading scorer at 16.8 points in 33.2 minutes a night.

Georgia Amoore is questionable behind her.

The Mystics' 86.5 PPG over the last 10 was built with Citron on the floor.

The pace argument is the best case for the over.

Chicago has played at a 99.48 pace, and more possessions usually means more points.

But possessions only inflate a total when teams convert them.

A 31% three-point shooting team running fast just produces more empty trips, and Washington turns it over on 19% of possessions, which kills transition rhythm anyway.

Both clubs are also coming off roughly three weeks without a game, 20 days rest for Washington and 19 for Chicago.

Long layoffs tend to show up first in shooting touch and offensive timing.

Depleted scoring on both sides, a bad shooting team at home, and rust off the break.

The number is too high.

I like the Under

5* NO BRAINER on Tigers +116

This pick starts with the pitcher Detroit gets to face.

White Sox starter Erick Fedde carries a 3.97 ERA, but the underlying numbers say he's been fortunate.

His xERA sits at 4.67 with a .442 xSLG and .331 xwOBA over 572 plate appearances.

That's a pitcher giving up real damage on contact.

Fedde also can't work deep.

He hasn't finished the 6th inning in any of his last five starts, going 5, 5, 5, 4.1 and 4 innings.

That means the Chicago bullpen gets exposed early every time he takes the ball.

Tigers starter Framber Valdez is the other side of that coin.

He's thrown 13 straight scoreless innings, blanking Cleveland over 7 on September 5 and Colorado over 6 on September 11.

He's gone at least 6 innings in four of his last five starts.

The fair pushback: Valdez has his own regression flag with a 4.42 xERA against a 4.01 ERA.

I don't dismiss it.

But his gap is smaller than Fedde's, and his .390 xSLG allowed shows he's suppressing hard contact far better than the guy in the other dugout.

If both pitchers regress to their expected numbers, Detroit still holds the edge.

Yes, the Tigers are banged up, with Kerry Carpenter on the 10-day IL and several outfielders out long term.

That's real, and it's exactly why this line is +116 instead of a coin flip.

A 77-75 White Sox team laying juice behind a five-inning starter with a 4.67 xERA is the wrong side.

Take the plus money and the stamina edge.

I like the Tigers

1* Free Pick on Lions/Bills: under 55

A total of 55 sits at the extreme top of the NFL board, and it got there off a one-game sample from each team.

The case against the under is obvious.

Buffalo put up 36 on Houston Sunday, Detroit hung 31 on New Orleans in overtime, and Josh Allen accounted for 4 total touchdowns.

I'm not arguing with any of that.

I'm arguing with the price.

Both teams have played exactly 1 game this season, and the books priced this like both offenses repeat that output on 3 days of rest.

That's recency bias, not handicapping.

Thursday games are a different animal.

No real practice week, no full install, tired legs on both sides.

Offenses feel it more than defenses.

Detroit's protection is the bigger issue.

Guard Christian Mahogany left Week 1 with a knee injury and Dan Campbell admitted he isn't out of the woods.

Tackle Blake Miller and guard Juice Scruggs are also questionable.

Jared Goff behind a patched line, on the road, against Bills edge Greg Rousseau, who sacked C.J.

Stroud twice Sunday.

That's stalled drives and field goals.

Detroit's own plan slows this down too.

Jahmyr Gibbs handled 29 of the team's 31 backfield carries in Week 1.

That's a run-heavy identity that bleeds clock and caps possessions.

And the pass rush cuts both ways: Lions end Aidan Hutchinson posted 2 sacks of his own Sunday.

A 55 needs roughly 8 touchdowns of scoring on a short week with banged-up lines.

I'll take the number the market overreacted to.

I like the Under

5* NO BRAINER on Syracuse +10

Ten points is a lot of cushion when the favorite just scored 12 in a 12-7 win over UCF.

That's the whole angle here.

You don't lay double digits with an offense that can stall out like that, especially on a short Thursday turnaround.

Let me address the obvious counter.

SP+ likes Pitt a lot more, 36th overall at 10 versus Syracuse at 67th with a 1.7 rating.

Fair.

But we're 2 games into the 2026 season, so those ratings are still projections leaning on last year's inputs, not this year's results.

And even if the gap is real, SP+ measures who wins, not who covers 10 in a game trending toward the low 20s.

Both defenses have shown up early.

Pitt is allowing 10.5 a game through 2 contests.

Syracuse is allowing 12.

When both units are getting stops, margins compress, and compressed margins are where big underdog numbers cash.

Syracuse quarterback Steve Angeli threw 3 interceptions in the 21-18 loss to Cal, and the Orange still only lost by 3.

That's the floor.

Clean that up even partially and this stays inside the number.

Syracuse also holds the special teams edge, 0.4 to 0.1 in SP+.

In a field position fight, that matters more than usual.

Pitt has owned this series at home, and I respect that.

But home dominance doesn't score points, and this Pitt offense just proved it can go quiet for four quarters.

Give me the touchdown and change.

I like the Syracuse

5* NO BRAINER on Bills -3

The Lions are walking into a rough spot.

They needed overtime to beat the Saints 31-30 at home Sunday, and now they have to fly to Buffalo on 4 days' rest with an offensive line held together with tape.

Guard Christian Mahogany left Week 1 with what may be a hip injury and Dan Campbell admitted he isn't out of the woods.

Tackle Blake Miller and guard Juice Scruggs are also questionable.

On a short week, questionable usually means out or compromised.

Buffalo looked sharp in the opener.

The Bills went into Houston and won 36-31, with Josh Allen accounting for 4 total touchdowns and leading a 96-yard game-winning drive in the final 2 minutes.

The passing game has new layers too.

Dalton Kincaid went for 130 receiving yards and DJ Moore drew a team-high 8 targets in his Buffalo debut.

Lions corner D.J.

Reed is questionable, which makes covering all that even harder.

The case against Buffalo is real: they gave up 31 to the Texans, and Detroit hung 31 on New Orleans behind Jahmyr Gibbs' 156 rushing yards.

But the Lions' defense logged an extended overtime workload Sunday and now faces the league's toughest quarterback on the road 4 days later.

Tired legs against Allen is how blowouts happen.

The -115 juice at -3 tells you where the pressure is.

If Detroit's linemen get ruled out, this hits -3.5.

Getting the key number now is the value.

Home team, healthier roster, better quarterback, and a beat-up opponent on short rest.

I like the Bills