Jimmy Boyd

4* VEGAS INSIDER on Florida/Missouri: under 57½

This total is priced off Florida's scoreboard, and that's the problem with it.

Florida is averaging 53.5 points a game through 4 games this season.

Look at who they scored on: 66 against Florida Atlantic, 52 against Campbell.

The 52-28 win over Ole Miss was real, but the schedule pumped up that average.

Missouri is a different assignment entirely.

The Tigers rank 14th in defensive SP+ and are allowing just 20.75 points a game.

They held Troy to 17 and Kansas to 21.

Here's the bigger issue for the over: Missouri has to hold up its end of a 58-point number.

This offense ranks 40th in SP+, and the 35.75 scoring average leans on a 54-point game against Arkansas-Pine Bluff.

In their last 2 games the Tigers scored 24 and 27.

Those same 2 games landed on 55 and 44 total points.

Both come in under this number.

There's also a real question about Florida's passing game.

Leading receiver Vernell Brown III is dealing with a knee strain.

Jon Sumrall said, "A lot of that's just how he's feeling more than anything.

But medically there's nothing that's going to hold him other than his own readiness." Cleared or not, a receiver managing pain tolerance on a knee is a capped receiver.

So you've got an inflated Florida scoring average, a top-15 defense on the other sideline, and a Missouri offense that hasn't cracked 30 against a real opponent in weeks.

The number is 3 to 5 points too high.

I like the Under

1* Free Pick on Navy +3½

This one starts and ends with the number.

SP+ has Navy 85th at -3.7 and Air Force 83rd at -3.4.

That is a coin flip on a neutral field.

Getting 3.5 points in a service academy game is buying value the ratings say shouldn't exist.

Air Force's 2-1 start looks better on paper than it did on tape.

The Falcons lost at home to North Dakota State 38-32 and needed a shootout to escape Nevada 36-33 last week.

That defense ranks 94th in SP+ and hasn't stopped anyone with a pulse.

Navy is 1-2, but look at how.

Both losses came on the road by a combined 12 points, 24-20 at UAB and 38-30 at FAU, against AAC offenses built to throw.

Air Force is a completely different assignment.

The Mids are still putting up 30.67 a game themselves.

The head-to-head leans the same way.

Navy has won the last 2 meetings in this series, and these academy games are always tight.

Limited possessions, clock-eating drives, one or two plays deciding it.

In that environment the hook on 3.5 is a real cushion.

There's also last season's finish to remember.

Navy closed by edging Army 17-16 in December and then handled Cincinnati 35-13 in the bowl.

This program knows how to win close, physical games against disciplined opponents.

Two evenly rated teams, a triple-option slugfest, and a field goal plus the hook in my pocket.

That's the bet.

You make money when you buy, and 3.5 here is a good buy.

I like Navy

4* VEGAS INSIDER on Temple +6½

Records lie in this spot.

South Florida is 4-0 and Temple is 1-3, but the resumes are a lot closer than those numbers suggest.

Start with the common opponent.

Temple lost to Army 21-17 at home last week.

USF went to Army and won 28-24 back on September 12.

Both games decided by 4 points.

That does not look like a 6.5-point gap.

Now look at how USF built the 4-0.

A 59-17 win over FCS Delaware State.

A 19-9 grind over FIU.

Last week the Bulls managed 14 points at Bowling Green.

Take out the FCS game and this offense has not cracked 30 against an FBS opponent this season.

Temple's offense travels.

The Owls hung 48 at Toledo in a one-point loss and are averaging 28 a game through four.

USF averages 30, and a chunk of that came against Delaware State.

The one ugly Temple result is the 27-9 home loss to Penn State.

That is a different weight class, not a read on this matchup.

The worry is Temple's defense, ranked 112th in SP+ and giving up 27.75 a game.

That is real.

But USF's offense sits just 49th in SP+ and has not shown it can pile on points against real competition this year.

SP+ makes USF the rightful favorite at 55th overall to Temple's 92nd.

Fine.

The market is just paying too much for a 4-0 record built on a soft schedule.

The Army comparison says this is a one-score game.

I like Temple

4* VEGAS INSIDER on Miami-FL -16½

The number looks big for a road ACC game.

It's not big enough.

Miami is 4-0 and hasn't been in a close game yet.

The Hurricanes went to Stanford in week 1 and won 45-6.

They went to Wake Forest and won 33-20.

Last week they hung 52 on Central Michigan and gave up 3.

The Wake game is the closest anyone's come, and Miami still covered this number.

Both road trips so far have been business trips.

Clemson is a different program than the brand name suggests.

The Tigers sit 54th in SP+ with the 91st ranked offense in the country.

They're averaging 21 points a game and giving up 22.

When Clemson has faced a real opponent, it's been ugly.

LSU beat them 51-10 in week 1.

The wins are Georgia Southern, North Carolina, and Cal, and none of those offenses stress a defense the way Miami's does.

This isn't new.

Clemson closed last season losing to Penn State 22-10 in December.

The offense has been the problem for over a year now.

Clemson's defense is legitimate, 24th in SP+, and that's the one thing keeping this from being a blowout on paper.

But a defense can only hold up so long when its own offense is averaging 21 a game.

Miami wins the field position battle, wins the explosive play battle, and pulls away in the second half.

An offense ranked 91st doesn't keep pace with an undefeated team that's winning by an average of more than 30.

Lay the points.

I like Miami-FL

3* HEAVY HITTER on Tennessee -7

Tennessee sits 14th in SP+ at 17.7.

Auburn is 31st at 11.4.

That gap alone justifies a touchdown, and the way these two have played through 4 games says the number undersells it.

Both teams are 3-1 this season, but the profiles are not close.

Tennessee is averaging 40 points a game and allowing 15.5.

Auburn is at 30 a game while giving up 20.75.

Look at how Auburn got to 3-1.

They needed every snap to beat Baylor 17-16, gave up 44 at home in a loss to Florida, and slogged past Vanderbilt 21-15 last week.

Two of the three wins came by a single score at home.

Tennessee's lone loss was 20-17 to Texas last Saturday.

Before that they handled Georgia Tech 45-24 on the road and rolled Kennesaw State 42-9.

The real mismatch is when Auburn has the ball.

Their offense ranks 53rd in SP+.

Tennessee's offense ranks 14th.

If this turns into a scoring game, Auburn does not have the horses to trade.

Auburn's best equalizer is QB Byrum Brown's legs, and coach Alex Golesh is pulling back on that. "Could you run them every snap?

You probably could.

But we've also got really good backs and we've also got to keep him healthy as we go here." A capped quarterback run game against a Tennessee defense that ranks 26th in SP+ is a tough way to hang around.

Golesh returning to Knoxville is a nice story.

The matchup is not.

Tennessee wins this by double digits.

I like Tennessee

5* BEST BET on Missouri +5½

The market is paying full retail for Florida right now, and that's the opening.

The Gators are 4-0 and averaging 53.5 points a game.

They just hung 52 on Ole Miss.

Everyone saw it, and this line reflects it.

But start with the number.

SP+ has Florida 12th at 18.5 and Missouri 25th at 13.7.

That's a 4.8-point gap on a neutral field.

Give Missouri standard home field and this should be a 2-point game, not 5.5.

That's the value.

The matchup piece is Missouri's defense.

The Tigers rank 14th in SP+ defense.

Florida's offense grades 9th, but this is the first top-15 defense the Gators have faced.

In Florida's lone true road game, Auburn put up 39 on them in a 44-39 shootout.

Take Florida out of the Swamp and things get tighter.

Missouri sits 3-1 and is allowing 20.75 points a game.

The one loss came on the road, 31-24 at Mississippi State last week.

They also went to Kansas and won 38-21.

This is a sound team, not a punching bag.

There's also a health question on Florida's side.

Leading receiver Vernell Brown III is working back from a knee strain.

Jon Sumrall said "A lot of that's just how he's feeling more than anything.

But medically there's nothing that's going to hold him other than his own readiness." Cleared is not the same as full speed.

Add the letdown spot after the Ole Miss blowout and a home dog getting nearly double what the ratings suggest, and the side is clear.

I like Missouri

5* NO BRAINER on Michigan -5½

The market is reacting to last week's scoreboard instead of the actual gap between these teams.

Michigan lost 20-19 to Iowa last Saturday.

That result is why this number is sitting at 5.5.

Strip out the one-point loss and the profile is strong: the Wolverines beat Oklahoma 17-10, sit 3-1, and are allowing just 14.75 points a game through 4 games this season.

SP+ backs it up.

Michigan is 22nd overall at 14.3 with the 9th-ranked defense in the country.

Minnesota is 52nd overall at 6.5, and that's an 8-point gap before you sort out home field.

Now look at Minnesota's 35 points a game and ask who it came against.

They hung 59 on Eastern Illinois and 41 on Akron.

Against real competition the picture changes fast: Mississippi State walked into Minneapolis and won 38-13.

The Gophers did grind out a 27-24 win at Washington last week, credit where it's due.

But their offense ranks 62nd in SP+, and now it draws the best defense it has seen all year.

Michigan's offense isn't explosive, ranking 52nd in SP+, but it doesn't need to be.

When Minnesota's offense stalls against this front, the Wolverines can win the field position battle and pull away late.

This is a bounce-back spot at a discounted price.

The Iowa loss knocked the line down, and I'll take the better team with the elite defense when the market hands me the cheaper number.

I like Michigan