Jimmy Boyd

5* NO BRAINER of the Week on Nets +5

The schedule is doing the heavy lifting here. Brooklyn comes in with 3 full days of rest while New Orleans is playing its third game in four nights. That is a real edge in this league, and 5 points is a lot of cushion to go with it.

Nobody is going to dress up Brooklyn's recent form. The Nets are 2-8 over their last 10 with a 105.6 offensive rating. But this number isn't asking them to win. It's asking them to hang around against a tired team, and the matchup gives them room to do exactly that.

New Orleans has not defended anyone lately. The Pelicans carry a 116.8 defensive rating over their last 10 and sit at 4-6 in that stretch with a -4.9 net rating. They score plenty at 117.2 a game, but they give a lot of it right back.

Brooklyn has the scorers to take advantage. Michael Porter Jr. is putting up 21.5 a night and Julius Randle is adding 20.0, both logging 33-plus minutes. Egor Demin is probable to return from a leg bone bruise, which steadies the backcourt, though Nolan Traore is questionable.

New Orleans has its own availability issues. Yves Missi, Trendon Watford and Bennedict Mathurin are out, and Trey Murphy's status is in question with Saddiq Bey in the expected starting five. Zion Williamson leads a capable attack, but the depth behind him is thinner than usual on tired legs.

Fatigued home favorites laying points against rested dogs is a spot I want to be on the other side of. Give me the Nets +5 (-110) against the Pelicans.

1* Free Pick on North Texas +136

North Texas at +136 at home is a price built on reputation, and the matchup underneath it points the other way.

Start on the glass. North Texas is rebounding 41.9% of its own misses early this season. Santa Clara's defense is giving up offensive boards on 30.5% of opponent misses. That is the exact leak North Texas is built to exploit, and extra possessions are how home dogs cash moneyline tickets.

When North Texas keeps the ball, it scores efficiently where it lives. The Mean Green are converting 65.5% of their 2-point attempts, getting to the line at a 39.3% free-throw rate, and hitting 81.8% once they are there. Second chances plus paint scoring plus free throws is a formula that does not depend on jump shooting.

The defense travels too. North Texas is forcing turnovers on 22.8% of opponent possessions while holding opponents to a 45.5% effective field goal percentage. Santa Clara wants to run at a 75-possession tempo. North Texas plays at 68.9, and at home I expect them to drag this game into the mud where their physicality matters most.

It is early November, so all of these numbers come from tiny samples: Santa Clara has played 2 games, North Texas 1, a 77-67 home win over McNeese. But that cuts both ways. The market is pricing Santa Clara off its ratings sheet and its 3-point shooting, and anchoring to a profile this thin is exactly how home underdogs get mispriced in the opening week.

A 42% implied probability for a home team that wins the possession battle and the foul line is a number I will take. Give me North Texas on the moneyline at +136 against Santa Clara.

3* HEAVY HITTER on South Florida/St. Joe's: under 152½

This total is priced off one game, and that is the problem with it. South Florida opened the 2026-27 season with an 82-80 loss at DePaul, 162 combined points, and the market is treating that single result as the template. That is recency bias setting the number, not a two-team read.

Strip out the opener and look at the baseline. Across 9 games of 2025-26 prior-season form, South Florida allowed just 69.11 points a game. This is a team with real defensive teeth: opponents turn it over on 18% of possessions against USF, and the Bulls block nearly 13% of shots. That is a defense built to create empty trips, and empty trips kill totals.

USF does play fast, 71.4 adjusted possessions per KenPom, so I understand why the number opened high. But pace alone does not score points, and we are working with a 1-1 sample this season. St. Joe's has no verified current-season form in the pack, which tells me this line leans almost entirely on USF's one loud result rather than a balanced projection of how both teams actually play. When a total is set off one data point, the value sits on the other side of it.

A 15:00 tip on a Wednesday in mid-November, two teams still sorting out rotations, and a number that assumes the track meet repeats. I will take the defense and the regression instead. Give me the Under 152.5 (-115) in South Florida at St. Joe's.

4* VEGAS INSIDER on Pepperdine -148

Pepperdine's case on the road at Sam Houston State comes down to extra possessions and free points, and the Waves generate both.

Through the early 2026-27 slate, Pepperdine is rebounding 42.1% of its own misses. That is elite second-chance volume, and it covers up a lot of cold shooting nights.

The free throw math is even better. The Waves post a 42.4 offensive free throw rate while allowing opponents a rate of just 15.6. Getting to the line that often while keeping the other team off it is how you steal 6 to 10 points a game without making a shot.

When the ball does go up inside the arc, it goes in. Pepperdine is shooting 58.3% on 2s, which fits the profile: attack the rim, crash the glass, live at the stripe.

Defensively, the Waves are forcing turnovers on 21.2% of opponent possessions with a 17.2% steal rate. More empty trips for the host, more transition chances for Pepperdine.

It is an early-season sample, and the opener was a 1-point loss at Cornell, so the margin for error is not huge. But the possession profile travels. Offensive rebounding, drawn fouls and forced turnovers do not depend on shots falling.

KenPom has Pepperdine 162nd overall with the 142nd-ranked offense, a respectable mid-major profile laying modest juice on the road. The market is asking a fair price for a team that controls the hidden possessions in a game.

Give me Pepperdine on the money line at -148 over Sam Houston State.

5* NO BRAINER on South Florida -7½

South Florida's offense is the reason to lay the points here.

The early KenPom numbers have the Bulls 61st nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency. They're posting a 55.97% effective field goal percentage, shooting 39.1% from three and 75.7% at the free throw line.

The quiet stat is ball security. South Florida is turning it over on just 9.7% of possessions, an elite mark. Teams that end nearly every trip with a shot attempt make life miserable for opponents trying to hang around.

Yes, the Bulls dropped their opener 82-80 at DePaul. That was a 2-point loss, and I think the market would be overreacting to treat one close result as a referendum on this roster.

The baseline says otherwise. Over a 9-game sample last season, South Florida went 8-1 while averaging 80.6 points and allowing 69.1. That's a team that knows how to win and win comfortably.

St. Joe's hasn't played a game yet this season, so the Hawks are stepping into their opener against an offense that already has live reps and a sting to shake off. First games are where shooting rhythm and defined roles matter, and South Florida has the clearer offensive identity right now.

When one side can shoot it from all three levels and refuses to give away possessions, 7.5 points is a number I'm comfortable laying.

Give me South Florida -7.5 (-110) against St. Joe's.

5* NO BRAINER on Buffalo +1

Buffalo is the better team here by every measure that matters, and the market is handing them a point anyway.

Start with the full-season profiles. Buffalo sits 6-3 this season. Ball State is 3-6 and giving up 34.78 points a game. That defensive number isn't a fluke: SP+ ranks the Ball State defense 133rd in the country.

The overall ratings gap backs it up. SP+ has Buffalo 112th at -11.1 and Ball State 130th at -19.5. That's an 8.4-point difference in power rating, and the line is asking Buffalo to take a point. The number should be pointing the other way.

Buffalo is also the team trending up. The Bulls are 4-1 in their last 5, allowing just 20.2 points a game over that stretch, and they're coming off a 34-31 road win at Miami (OH) last week. Ball State is 2-3 over its last 5 and just lost 31-30 at Massachusetts.

That UMass game is a useful common thread. Buffalo handled the Minutemen 25-18 back on October 17. Ball State couldn't close them out on the road last week.

So what's propping up this price? Home field and a couple of loud Ball State scoring performances lately. That's the market paying for recency while ignoring the season-long reality: one of these teams defends, the other doesn't. When Buffalo's offense, mediocre as it is, gets to work against the 133rd-ranked defense in SP+, the Bulls should be able to score enough to win this outright.

Getting the stronger side plus a point is the whole edge. Give me Buffalo +1 (-115) at Ball State.