Jimmy Boyd

4* VEGAS INSIDER on Oregon -23

This is a talent mismatch, and 23 points is not enough to close it.

Both teams are at zero games played this season, so the case starts with last year's tape.

Last season Oregon averaged 40.78 points a game and allowed just 17.11.

They shut out Texas Tech 23-0 on New Year's Day and rolled Minnesota 42-13 in November.

Rosters like that reload, they don't rebuild.

Oklahoma State is coming off a 1-11 season and blew the whole program up.

New head coach Eric Morris brought in an Air Raid system, North Texas transfer QB Drew Mestemaker, who threw for 4,379 yards in 2025, and more than 50 portal additions.

That overhaul is the strongest case against laying this number.

An offense nobody has film on can spring a backdoor cover.

Here's why I'm not buying it: 50-plus transfers means an offensive line with zero continuity, and Air Raid offenses die up front.

Oregon's front against a line that has never played a snap together is a problem for Stillwater.

Mestemaker's numbers came against Group of Five defenses.

This is a different level.

The heat is real, with a forecast heat index near 100 at kickoff.

That cuts both ways, and Oregon's depth handles a hot fourth quarter far better than a roster of newcomers.

Oregon's floor showed up in the 56-22 loss to Indiana in January.

That was against an elite team.

Oklahoma State is nowhere near that tier, and big favorites bury overmatched rebuilds in September.

I like Oregon

3* HEAVY HITTER on Michigan +5½

Neither team has played a snap yet in 2026, so this one comes down to the matchup and the number.

The number is what I like.

The case for Oklahoma is the defense, and it's legitimate.

Last season the Sooners allowed just 14.62 points a game, held Missouri to 6 in November and LSU to 13 a week later.

I'm not arguing with that unit.

Here's the problem.

Oklahoma's offense scored 17 in both of those wins.

They averaged 26.38 points a game last season and their formula was winning ugly.

That profile keeps games tight.

It does not cover 5.5 on the road at noon in Ann Arbor.

Michigan actually outscored Oklahoma on average last season, 28.71 to 26.38.

And this program was stingy at home: Wisconsin managed 10 in October, Washington managed 7 a couple weeks later.

Yes, Texas hung 41 on them in the bowl game, but that was on the road against a top offense, not in the Big House.

Oklahoma's protection is a question too.

Sooners left tackle Michael Fasusi has been limited in practice with a sore shoulder and may not play full snaps.

Getting center Jake Maikkula back helps inside, but the edge is where Michigan wins.

The real risk is Michigan QB Bryce Underwood handling Brent Venables' pressure without giving the ball away.

Fair concern.

But with a total in the low 40s, Michigan can lose this game outright and still cash the ticket.

That's the bet: a live home dog getting nearly a touchdown in a rock fight.

I like Michigan

4* VEGAS INSIDER on South Florida/Army: under 47½

This total is priced on last season's South Florida offense.

That offense doesn't exist anymore.

Neither team has played a 2026 game yet, so the tape we have is last year's.

Army's version of last year is exactly what you want on an under.

The Black Knights averaged 22.1 points scored and 18.5 allowed across the 10 games I have logged from 2025.

At home, Army turns games into slogs.

They beat Temple 14-13 last November, 27 total points.

They lost 17-16 at Navy in December, 33 total.

When Army controls the clock, there simply aren't enough possessions to reach the upper 40s.

The obvious pushback is South Florida.

The Bulls averaged 43.5 a game over 8 games last season and played shootouts like the 63-36 win over North Texas and the 41-38 loss at Navy.

Fair point.

But that was Alex Golesh's tempo offense, and Golesh is at Auburn now.

Brian Hartline is installing a new system, and a road noon kick at West Point against a defense built to shorten games is a rough spot to debut it.

Even if USF's talent travels, Army caps the ceiling.

The triple option milks the clock whether they're ahead or behind, and it kept UConn to a 57-point total last season in a game Army won 41-16 going away.

The market agrees.

This number has moved down to 46.5 at most shops, so holding 47.5 at -105 is a full point better than where the game will close.

New coach, road opener, pace-killing opponent, closing line value in hand.

I like the Under

3* HEAVY HITTER on Purdue +164

Purdue at +164 as a home dog implies about 37.9%.

That number is the whole play here, so let's see if it holds up.

First, the ugly part.

Purdue was bad last season.

They gave up 35.57 points a game, Indiana ran them off the field 56-3 last November, and Ohio State beat them 34-10 the week before that.

That's the case against this bet and it's a real one.

But that team isn't the one taking the field Saturday.

Neither side has played a game yet this season.

In the portal era, year-over-year carryover is thinner than ever, and the books are still pricing Purdue like it's last November.

Wake Forest earned favorite status with last season's work: 29.12 points a game and a 43-29 bowl win over Mississippi State in January.

Fair enough.

But that same team allowed 25 points a game and got run out of Durham 49-32 by Duke late last season.

Now that defense travels out of conference to Ross-Ade for a noon kick.

Purdue's offense showed a pulse in the right spots too.

They put up 30 at Notre Dame last September and hung 27 on Illinois, both in losses, but proof the scoring ceiling exists.

Against a defense that leaked 25 a game, they don't need to be great.

They need to be functional.

You make money when you buy, not when you sell.

Purdue only has to win this spot 38% of the time to make +164 profitable.

Home dog, season opener, favorite proving nothing yet on the road.

That's a price I'll take.

I like Purdue

4* VEGAS INSIDER on Old Dominion/Virginia Tech: under 51

Old Dominion set the tone with defense all last year, and the offense it brings to Blacksburg is built to bleed clock, not chase points.

Start with the Monarchs' defense.

Over a 6-game stretch to close 2025 they allowed 13 points per game.

They shut out Troy 33-0 in November, held Georgia State to 10 later that month, then capped the year with a 24-10 bowl win over South Florida in December.

The offense that hung 45 on Virginia Tech in last year's meeting is gone.

Colton Joseph took his arm to Wisconsin and the top receivers left with him.

New quarterback Quinn Henicle is a runner first: he led Old Dominion with 68 rushing yards and 2 ground touchdowns in the Week 1 opener.

Run-first, ball-control football shortens games and shrinks possessions.

The obvious counter is Virginia Tech dropping 73 points and 619 yards on VMI in James Franklin's debut.

I am not paying for that number.

VMI is an FCS program.

This same Hokies offense averaged 24.17 points over its final 6 games last season while going 2-4, and 73 against VMI tells me nothing about what they do against a defense that held real opponents to 13 a game.

Virginia Tech's front helps the under too.

The Hokies piled up 18 tackles for loss in Week 1, and negative plays kill drives on both sides of a ball-control game.

Both teams are one game into 2026, so I am betting the matchup and the number.

Run-heavy visitor, stout visiting defense, noon kick. 51 is too many points.

I like the Under

5* NO BRAINER on Texas State -105

Both of these teams open their 2026 season Saturday, so this one comes down to last year's tape and the price.

Both favor Texas State.

Start with the head-to-head.

Texas State is 2-0 against UTSA, and last September the Bobcats went into San Antonio and won 43-36.

Now they get the rematch at home in San Marcos.

The offense travels year to year in this program.

Texas State averaged 37 points a game across the 2025 games I tracked, closing the year with a 49-26 win over South Alabama and a 41-10 bowl rout of Rice.

UTSA's defense is the soft spot.

The Roadrunners allowed 27.62 points a game last season and got run off the field 55-23 at South Florida in November.

Texas State hung 43 on this same defense a year ago.

The fair pushback: UTSA can score too, averaging 31.75 a game last season, and Texas State's defense gave up 26.5 per game across the games I tracked, including 36 to UTSA in that head-to-head win.

I don't dispute any of it.

This projects as a shootout.

But at a moneyline of -105, I don't need Texas State to win with defense.

I need them to win a track meet at home, and they outscored UTSA in exactly that kind of game last September, on the road.

That's the whole case.

The better offense against the leakier defense, a 2-0 series edge, home field, and essentially no juice on the price.

When the matchup and the number both point the same way, I take it.

I like Texas State