Jimmy Boyd

5* NO BRAINER on Calgary/Toronto: over 67½

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

3* HEAVY HITTER on Fever +100

The Fever are 2-0 against the Aces this season, winning 84-68 and 109-75.

That's a 25-point average margin against the defending champs, and the market is still giving me +100 on the home side.

Indiana is playing the best basketball in the league right now.

Over the last 10, the Fever are 7-3 with a 123.6 offensive rating, 102.6 PPG, and a 60% eFG.

The three-point stroke is real too at 43% from deep.

Las Vegas is playing well in its own right at 6-4 with a 117.5 offensive rating, but Indiana's pace advantage matters.

The Fever run at 99.72 possessions compared to 95.94 for Vegas, and pushing tempo is exactly how Indiana has attacked A'ja Wilson in both prior meetings.

The rest edge helps.

Indiana gets four days off, Vegas gets three.

Both Caitlin Clark and Aliyah Boston are listed day-to-day but expected to play.

Clark has cleared 30 minutes in three straight while averaging 25.7 points and 9 assists.

The opposition case is Wilson at 26.6 PPG, and yes, she'll get hers.

Indiana's 113.2 defensive rating over 10 games is not going to shut her down.

But this isn't a matchup about stopping Wilson.

It's about outscoring Vegas, and the Fever's 123.6 offensive rating and the two blowouts already in the bank say they can.

Kelsey Mitchell at 24 PPG plus Clark plus Boston is too much offense at this number.

At +100, I'm getting a coin flip on the team that has already won this matchup twice by 20-plus.

I like the Fever

4* VEGAS INSIDER on A's/Reds: over 9

Reds lefty Andrew Abbott carries a 3.91 ERA into this one, but his 4.70 xERA and .333 xwOBA tell the real story.

He's been living on smoke and mirrors, and the command is slipping at the wrong time.

In his August 1st start against Pittsburgh, Abbott walked 5 in 5 innings.

That's 14 walks across his last four starts.

Free baserunners at Great American Ball Park is how totals get cleared before the seventh.

The weather backs it. 83 degrees, feels like 88, clear skies, light 5 MPH wind.

The ball carries in this park in these conditions, and this park doesn't need help.

A's righty Mason Barnett is the other side of the equation.

He went 5 innings against Boston on July 30th and gave up 3 earned.

A 4.85 ERA starter with a short leash means the Oakland bullpen gets exposed early against a Cincinnati lineup that still has plenty in it even without Spencer Steer.

The opposition case is real.

The A's have lost Rooker, Kurtz, Langeliers, and Gelof, and Barnett's 3.96 xERA suggests he's better than the ERA.

I get it.

But Abbott's walks travel, and Cincinnati's offense alone can push 5 or 6 in this ballpark on a warm day.

The Over doesn't need the A's to drop 7.

It needs both teams to combine for 10, and the Reds can carry most of that freight themselves.

Total of 9 at -105 is a fair number in a spot that should play well over.

I like the Over

4* VEGAS INSIDER on Reds -158

The A's come into Cincinnati at 45-69 riding a seven-game losing streak, and they're doing it without their four best bats.

Brent Rooker (60-day IL), Nick Kurtz (10-day), Shea Langeliers (10-day), and Zack Gelof (10-day) are all out simultaneously.

That's the entire heart of the order.

The Reds are 55-58 and have gone 7-3 over their last 10.

The opposition case leans on the pitching matchup, and it's a fair one.

Reds lefty Andrew Abbott carries a 3.91 ERA but a 4.70 xERA, and he walked 5 with just 1 strikeout in his last start against Pittsburgh.

Meanwhile A's rookie Mason Barnett has a 4.85 ERA but a much cleaner 3.96 xERA and a 0.308 xwOBA.

On paper, the underlying numbers argue Barnett is the better arm right now.

Here's why it doesn't flip the pick.

Barnett has exactly one MLB start on his record, and he's throwing into Great American Ball Park in 83-degree weather against a lineup that just won 7 of 10.

Abbott has completed 5+ innings in 16 of his last 17 outings.

Even in the ugly Pirates start, he only allowed 3 earned runs across 5 innings.

The workload gap between an established big-league lefty and a rookie making his second career start matters more than xERA in a spot like this.

Oakland's offense simply cannot punish anyone right now.

The Reds don't need Abbott's best.

They need him to be average against a lineup missing its top four run producers.

I like the Reds

5* NO BRAINER on Marlins/Braves: under 9

The Braves side of this total scares people, and it should on paper.

Atlanta is 69-45, Matt Olson has 31 homers, and the offense is rolling.

That's the obvious read on a 9.

Here's what the obvious read misses.

Braves lefty Martin Perez is at 3.24 ERA on the year and just went 7 innings, 1 hit, 0 earned against Washington on August 2nd.

He's not the back-end lefty Miami hitters remember.

He's the guy giving up two runs and going deep every time out.

And the Marlins lineup he's facing is the softest side of this equation.

Miami is 58-57 but has scored 1-2 runs in each of their last two losses.

Kyle Stowers is the only real left-handed threat, and Perez is a lefty.

Rookies Sanoja and Mack hitting 6 and 9 against a veteran southpaw is a good spot for Perez to work quick innings.

The opposition case is that Marlins starter Janson Junk has an 8.10 career ERA against Atlanta and got tagged in May.

Fair.

But Junk's 2026 numbers say something different: 4.58 ERA, 4.04 xERA, and he's allowed 1 earned run or fewer in four of his last five starts.

The underlying stuff has caught up.

Weather is 79 degrees with light rain and a 6 MPH wind.

That's neutral to slightly suppressive, not a launching pad.

Both starters have gone 5+ innings limiting damage recently.

Take the number before it moves to 8.5.

I like the Under

5* NO BRAINER on Cardinals +1½

Hall of Fame Game handicapping is quarterback depth handicapping.

Starters sit, backups play a series, and the game gets decided by whoever's third and fourth arm can move the ball.

Arizona has a clear edge there.

The Cardinals are rolling out veteran Jacoby Brissett, Gardner Minshew, and rookie third-rounder Carson Beck.

Beck completed 72 percent of his passes for 3,813 yards and 30 touchdowns at Miami last year.

That's a real NFL-caliber arm getting late-game reps against Carolina's fourth-string defense.

Carolina's plan is Kenny Pickett for a series, then undrafted rookie Haynes King for the rest of the night.

Pickett has been on three teams in two years.

King was undrafted for a reason.

That's the quarterback room finishing this game for the Panthers.

The Panthers' offense was already brutal with their real players on the field.

Carolina posted a -0.1364 EPA per play over their last 4 games of 2025 and averaged 19 points per game over their last 5.

Now strip out Bryce Young, Chuba Hubbard, and the starting line, and the offense gets worse.

I hear the opposition.

Arizona's defense was a fire sale down the stretch, allowing 37 points per game over their last 5 and posting a 0.2128 defensive EPA per play in the last 4.

That matters in September.

It matters far less in a preseason opener where nobody's scheming and the starters are watching in ball caps.

Getting 1.5 points with the quarterback edge is the right side.

I like the Cardinals