Jimmy Boyd

4* VEGAS INSIDER on Storm +8½

The Dream flew in late after losing 78-75 in San Francisco on Friday night and now tip at 9 PM local in Seattle.

That's three road games in four days.

Tired legs travel poorly, especially for a guard-heavy team that leans on Allisha Gray, Jordin Canada, and Rhyne Howard to create everything.

Atlanta is also missing Brionna Jones, who still hasn't been cleared for 5-on-5 work after knee surgery.

That caps the ceiling for exploiting Seattle's young frontcourt.

Naz Hillmon is fine.

She's not a star center.

The obvious opposition case is Angel Reese against Seattle's teenage frontcourt of Dominique Malonga and Awa Fam.

Reese will get her rebounds.

The counter is that Malonga is averaging 17.5 PPG and gives the Storm a real interior scorer to keep this from turning into a blowout.

Seattle doesn't need to win the matchup.

They need to lose by 8 or fewer.

This is a covers-not-wins spot.

The Storm are 4-15 and starting two teenagers, so the market priced this like a throwaway.

But WNBA teams on the back end of a back-to-back are 1-3 ATS this season, and Seattle plays meaningfully better at home.

Rhyne Howard at 18.1 PPG and Canada coming off 23 points are real, but tired stars on a third road game in four days regress.

Getting 8.5 with the rest edge and a home crowd is the number I want.

I like the Storm

1* Free Pick on Toronto Tempo -4½

Phoenix walks into Toronto with a roster that barely qualifies as a WNBA rotation.

Alyssa Thomas is serving a one-game suspension for the throat contact on Caitlin Clark.

Monique Akoa Makani is out with a hamstring.

Natasha Mack is out with a foot injury.

Jovana Nogic is away for personal reasons.

Sami Whitcomb is shelved long-term.

That's five rotation pieces, including the primary playmaker and the defensive anchor.

What's left is a starting five of Kahleah Copper, Alexa Held, Noemie Brochant, DeWanna Bonner, and Valeriane Ayayi.

Copper and Bonner can score.

Everyone else is filler or a converted role player.

Toronto is shorthanded too.

Brittney Sykes is out with plantar fascia and Kiki Rice is out with the knee.

But the Tempo still trot out Marina Mabrey, who tied the WNBA single-game scoring record with 53 points in her last outing.

Mabrey alone outpaces what Phoenix can generate on the road without Thomas running point.

The opposition case is real.

Toronto allows 91.8 points per game, second-worst in the league, and they're a 9-9 expansion club not built for blowouts.

Fair.

But Phoenix doesn't have the frontcourt depth to punish that defense with Thomas and Mack both out.

Brochant and Ayayi are not bullying Nyara Sabally and Isabelle Harrison for 40 minutes.

The line opened at Toronto -2.5 and has moved to -5.5 or -6 at most books following the Thomas suspension.

Getting -4.5 here is buying behind the move.

That's the edge.

I like the Toronto Tempo

3* HEAVY HITTER on Phillies/Mets: over 8½

Christian Scott's surface line looks fine.

The underlying numbers tell a different story.

The Mets righty carries a 3.10 ERA but a 4.46 xERA across 178 plate appearances, with a .328 xwOBA against.

That is a regression candidate, and the Phillies have the lineup to force it.

Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper in the 2-3 spots against a right-hander with deteriorating peripherals is the exact matchup overs want.

Trea Turner ahead of them, Bohm and Stott behind.

This is a top-five offense walking into a start where the underlying ERA says 4.46.

Scott also can't go deep.

He failed to complete 6 innings in any of his last five starts and got tagged for 4 earned in 4.2 innings on June 11.

That puts the Mets bullpen in play early in a game where it shouldn't be.

The opposition case rests on Phillies starter Alan Rangel and his shiny 2.25 ERA across 33 plate appearances.

Fair point, but 33 PAs is nothing.

His xERA is already 2.92 and climbing, and this is functionally a bullpen day.

Even with Soto, Bichette, and Lindor missing some support around them, that trio against an unproven arm working short produces runs.

Yes, the Mets are without Semien, Robert, and Polanco.

The top of their order is still major-league dangerous.

And the recent head-to-head saw Philadelphia and New York combine for 26 runs over two games.

Weather is a non-factor at 77 degrees with a 7 MPH breeze.

The pitching matchup is the whole story, and both sides of it point up.

I like the Over

5* NO BRAINER on Mariners/Guardians: under 8

The case for Under 8 starts with the Mariners' bats going cold in a way you rarely see at the big-league level.

Seattle has failed to clear 3 runs in 11 consecutive games.

That's not a slump, that's a free-fall, and the price on this total is built around it.

Guardians starter Slade Cecconi has quietly settled in.

Over his last four starts against Houston, Milwaukee, and the Yankees twice, he's allowed just 6 earned runs across 22.2 innings.

His season ERA sits at 4.48, but the recent form is what plays here against a lineup that can't string anything together.

Mariners starter Emerson Hancock counters with a 3.60 ERA and a 5-4 record.

He's a low-damage arm, exactly the profile you want anchoring an under.

Cleveland's offense is also banged up.

José Ramírez is on the 10-day IL, and the Guardians sit in the bottom third of the league in barrel rate at 6.2%.

The opposition argument is Cecconi's underlying numbers.

A .278 xBA and .334 wOBA say he gives up quality contact and is due for negative regression.

Fair point in a vacuum.

But regression doesn't have to show up tonight, and it's hard to bet on it showing up against a lineup that hasn't scored 4 runs in two weeks.

Weather is a non-factor at 73 degrees with a 6 MPH breeze.

Two struggling offenses, two pitchers in decent form, and a market that's still pricing this at -114.

That's the spot.

I like the Under

5* NO BRAINER on Calgary +120

Calgary at +120 on the road is the right side of a matchup the market is overpricing on Nathan Rourke's name.

Start with the BC defense.

The Lions are last in the CFL at 8.8 yards per play allowed and have surrendered 8 passing touchdowns already.

They're giving up 36 points per game and just got run over 41-27 by Hamilton last week.

Calgary has the personnel to attack that profile.

Stampeders RB Dedrick Mills is on a back-to-back 100-yard streak, and BC's front has shown no ability to get off the field.

That's the matchup edge.

The Lions also lose three of their top four receivers to the six-game injured list.

Jevon Cottoy, Seven McGee, and Stanley Berryhill are all out.

Rourke can sling it, but he's throwing to a depleted group at a temporary 4,500-seat venue in Kelowna, not a real home environment.

Calgary's defense gets a boost too.

Star DL Folarin Orimolade makes his 2026 debut in this one.

The opposition case is real.

BC leads the league at 431 net yards per game and Calgary is 0-2 SU and 0-1-1 ATS.

I get it.

But yardage without touchdowns is empty calories against a depleted receiver room, and Calgary's losses include a double-OT defeat to Saskatchewan that says more about the closeness than the record does.

At +120 against a winless team with the league's worst defense and three top receivers out, the price is wrong.

I like the Calgary