Jimmy Boyd

3* HEAVY HITTER on Valkyries +6½

The Valkyries own a +11.9 net rating over their last 10 games against a Fever team sitting at +8.2.

That's the foundation of this number being too high.

Golden State's defense is the story.

They're allowing 98.7 points per 100 possessions, and that travels regardless of the schedule spot.

Indiana is scoring 94.4 per game at a 101.03 pace, but they're coughing it up at an 18% turnover rate.

The Valkyries protect the ball at 12%.

That's a possessions gap that keeps this game closer than the spread suggests.

The opposition case is real.

Golden State is on the second leg of a back-to-back after playing in New York, and they're missing Cecilia Zandalasini, Juste Jocyte, and Iliana Rupert.

Indiana gets Caitlin Clark back at home where they're 7-3 SU in their last 10.

I'm not dismissing any of it.

But Clark sat Wednesday with back soreness and is still listed day-to-day.

A 24.3 PPG scorer playing through a lingering back issue isn't the same player.

The market has already priced in the full version.

The Valkyries are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 road games.

Indiana is 3-6 ATS in their last 9.

That's two trends pointing the same direction, and the underlying numbers back them up.

Kelsey Mitchell at 23 PPG and Aliyah Boston at 15 give Indiana a clear path to points.

They just don't have the defensive profile to pull away from this Golden State group.

I like the Valkyries

3* HEAVY HITTER on Guardians/Phillies: under 7

Phillies starter Cristopher Sanchez carries a 1.82 ERA into this one and is coming off a 13-strikeout complete-game shutout in his last start.

That's the anchor of this Under.

The Guardians lineup is built around contact, not power.

Steven Kwan and Angel Martinez are line-drive hitters, and Cleveland is starting Austin Hedges at catcher and Brayan Rocchio at short with Gabriel Arias on the 10-day IL.

That's three easy outs against an elite lefty who lives in the zone.

Weather backs the play. 63 degrees at first pitch with a 12 MPH wind blowing in from the east at Citizens Bank Park.

That's a ball-killing setup at a park that usually plays neutral-to-hitter-friendly in the summer.

The pushback on Guardians starter Gavin Williams is real.

His 3.67 ERA hides a 4.42 xERA, and he's allowed 5-plus earned runs in three of his last five starts.

That's the case for the Over and I'm not dismissing it.

Here's why it doesn't flip me.

Williams has gone 6 innings in every one of those starts, so even on his bad nights he's not dumping the game to the back of the bullpen early.

And his 7.2-inning shutout against Tampa Bay on April 29 shows the ceiling is still there.

The Phillies offense can punish mistakes, but they're facing a guy with 73 strikeouts who keeps the ball in the yard.

Sanchez carries the water.

Williams covers his half.

Cool air does the rest.

I like the Under

3* HEAVY HITTER on Marlins +114

The records don't justify this number.

Mets are 22-28, Marlins are 22-29, and we're getting plus money at home in Miami.

New York is gutted.

Francisco Lindor, Francisco Alvarez, Jorge Polanco, Luis Robert Jr., Ronny Mauricio, and Jared Young are all on the 10-Day IL.

That's six contributors, including the everyday shortstop, the everyday catcher, and the center fielder.

The lineup behind Soto thins out fast.

The pitching matchup is where the opposition case lives, and it's real.

Mets starter Tobias Myers carries a 3.03 xERA and a 0.278 xwOBA, while Marlins starter Eury Perez sits at a 5.33 ERA after a rough five-start stretch.

I'm not dismissing that.

Here's the catch.

Myers threw 2 innings in his last outing on April 19.

He's a long-reliever being asked to stretch out as a traditional starter for the first time.

That 3.03 xERA was built in short bursts.

Once he hits the third time through, the Mets are going to a bullpen that's been carrying a depleted rotation for weeks.

Perez has the better stuff and the higher ceiling in this matchup, even with the ugly recent line.

Two of his last three home outings have produced quality starts.

At +114 against a roster missing this much offense and a starter on a strict pitch count, the price is wrong.

The market is paying for Soto and Mets reputation, not the actual roster taking the field tonight.

I like the Marlins

1* Free Pick on Reds -104

The Reds get listed as a near coinflip at home because the back of the baseball card says Cardinals starter Kyle Leahy is 5-3 with a 3.94 ERA and Reds starter Chris Paddack is 0-5 with a 7.07 ERA.

The underlying numbers tell a completely different story.

Leahy's 3.94 ERA is one of the loudest mirages on the market.

His xERA is 6.17.

His xSLG against is .497 and his xwOBA is .382 across 205 plate appearances.

He's been bailed out by sequencing and weak contact luck that doesn't repeat.

Paddack is the opposite.

The 7.07 ERA is real on the scoreboard, but his xERA is 4.24, xSLG .422, xwOBA .325.

He just went 5 IP, 2 ER at Cleveland on May 16 and threw 56 of 78 for strikes.

That's the version the Reds coaching staff is getting.

The strongest pushback is the April 21 start where Paddack got tagged by the Cardinals for 5 earned in 4.2 innings.

I'm not dismissing it, but that was his second-worst outing of the year and came before the command adjustment showed up at Cleveland.

One start in a five-start sample isn't the trend.

The Cincinnati lineup is also playing well, with 22 hits over the last two games and Sal Stewart coming off a 4-hit, 1 HR night.

At -104 in a home park, with the better expected pitching matchup and the hotter lineup, this is a clean price.

I like the Reds

5* NO BRAINER on Braves -205

The Braves are 35-16.

The Nationals are 25-26.

That gap alone tells you who's been the better team, and the pitching matchup widens it further.

Nationals starter Miles Mikolas has been one of the worst arms in the league.

He's 1-3 with a 6.91 ERA and has allowed an .524 SLG against him this season.

His xERA of 5.36 says the underlying numbers are barely better than the surface ones.

Look at his last five starts.

He hasn't gone past 5.1 innings in any of them.

He got pounded for 11 earned runs by the Dodgers in 4.1 innings on April 3 and hasn't been right since.

Braves starter Bryce Elder is the counter at 4-2 with a 2.01 ERA.

The opposition case flags reports that Atlanta could pivot off Elder, and that's the real risk at -205.

But even in a bullpen scenario, Atlanta's pen ranks among the better units in the NL and they're at home against a Washington lineup stacking five straight lefties who'll see right-handed arms all night.

The weather is the other concern.

Heavy rain at first pitch with a 100% precip chance could shorten this or scramble the pitching plan.

That's priced in.

What isn't fully priced in is how badly Mikolas matches up with Matt Olson, Austin Riley, and Ronald Acuna in a park that plays fair to power.

Atlanta has won three of four in this season series and scored seven-plus in each win.

The price is steep.

The edge is still there.

I like the Braves

4* VEGAS INSIDER on Brooks Koepka -110

Koepka opened with a bogey-free 63 and sits T3 at -8, one shot clear of Thorbjornsen at T9 and -7.

At -110 in an 18-hole matchup with the lead already in hand, that's value.

The case starts with the irons.

Koepka's long-term SG: Approach skill of 0.439 is more than double Thorbjornsen's 0.20, and he reinforced it Thursday by gaining 3.05 strokes on approach.

On a 7,385-yard par 71 with long second shots into 7,094 square-foot bentgrass greens, approach play is the separator.

DataGolf agrees.

Koepka prices out at 2.26% to win and 11.1% for a top-5, both ahead of Thorbjornsen's 1.82% and 9.6%.

He's the better golfer in the model and on the board.

The opposition will point to Thorbjornsen's 4.3 SG: Tee-to-Green in Round 1 versus Koepka's 3.4, plus the 11.2 driving distance advantage at a course where 60% of tee shots favor a left-to-right shape.

Fair point.

But Thorbjornsen still gave back the round on the greens, and Koepka's putter is the swing variable working in my favor right now.

He talked about studio work and feeling comfortable with the flat stick after a bogey-free 63.

That's a player who has solved his weak link, not one regressing tomorrow.

Koepka has two top-5s at this event and a major pedigree Thorbjornsen can't match.

Buy the better player at a fair number.

I like Brooks Koepka