Jimmy Boyd
Jimmy Boyd
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YESTERDAY'S PLAYS
PICKS IN PROGRESS
4* VEGAS INSIDER on Nationals/Cubs: under 7½
All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.
5* NO BRAINER on Rays/Cardinals: under 8
All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.
4* VEGAS INSIDER on Rasmus Neergaard Petersen +105
Rasmus Neergaard Petersen is the clear value play in this matchup at plus money. He enters this week with a massive advantage in ball-striking and total driving.
Christiaan Bezuidenhout is a wizard around the greens, but he is giving up too much distance off the tee. On a course of this length, that gap becomes impossible to bridge with just a hot putter.
Petersen has been elite in Strokes Gained: Approach over his last three tournaments. He is hitting more greens in regulation than almost anyone in this field right now.
Bezuidenhout relies on scrambling to save par, which is a stressful way to play a full tournament. If his short game is anything less than perfect, he will fall behind the pace early.
The young Dane is coming off a strong performance where he gained over five strokes on the field from tee-to-green. His confidence is at an all-time high following his recent surge in the world rankings.
The markets are still pricing Bezuidenhout based on his veteran status and past consistency. They are ignoring the fact that Petersen has a much higher ceiling in a head-to-head matchup.
Petersen’s ability to take advantage of the par 5s with his length gives him a distinct scoring edge. He will have shorter irons into these pins all day long compared to his opponent.
Taking a pure ball-striker as an underdog against a player who needs his putter to save him is a winning long-term strategy. The data says Petersen should be the favorite in this spot.
I am banking on the superior iron play to wash away the experience factor. Petersen is the more dangerous golfer from the fairway and will create far more birdie opportunities.
Bet Rasmus Neergaard Petersen ML (+105).
3* HEAVY HITTER on Tony Finau +110
Tony Finau is catching plus money in this matchup and that is a glaring error by the oddsmakers.
You do not often get one of the world's elite ball strikers as an underdog against a younger player still finding his way.
Finau’s edge starts with his pure consistency from tee to green.
He remains a top-tier threat in Strokes Gained: Approach and that is the most predictive stat for success on this track.
Ricky Castillo is a talented young player but he lacks the experience needed to out-duel a veteran over the long haul.
Castillo has struggled with his driving accuracy lately and this course punishes anyone who misses the short grass.
Finau is a master at bogey avoidance and keeps his rounds clean by avoiding the big numbers.
He excels at par 5 scoring and should have a massive advantage on the longer holes this week.
While Castillo relies heavily on a hot putter to save his scores, Finau creates stress-free birdies with his irons.
Putting is high variance and can disappear in an instant while elite ball striking travels every single week.
Finau is coming into this event with great rhythm after gaining over five strokes on the field in his last start.
Castillo’s recent stats are inflated by a few decent rounds against weaker fields and he isn't ready for this jump in class.
We are backing the proven winner with the superior statistical profile in every major category.
The value on the veteran at this price is too good to pass up.
I like the Tony Finau ML (+110)
5* NO BRAINER on William Mouw +100
William Mouw is the play here because his ball-striking is on a different level than Sihwan Kim’s right now.
Mouw has been a machine from tee-to-green lately and is consistently gaining strokes on the field with his irons.
Sihwan Kim is struggling to find fairways and that is going to be a massive problem on this layout.
When you are playing from the rough as often as Kim has been, you can't generate the spin needed to hold these firm greens.
Mouw ranks significantly higher in Strokes Gained: Approach over his last twelve rounds.
He is giving himself looks at birdie while Kim is fighting just to save par after errant tee shots.
The consistency factor is the biggest edge in this matchup.
Mouw has shown a high floor by making his last four cuts while showing elite Bogey Avoidance.
Kim's short game has kept him afloat in some spots, but scrambling is a hard way to make a living over four days.
He simply doesn't hit enough greens in regulation to keep pace with a pure ball-striker like Mouw.
Mouw's pedigree as a top young talent is finally translating into elite professional results.
He is comfortable in these head-to-head spots and his temperament fits this course setup perfectly.
The market hasn't fully caught up to how well Mouw is striking the ball this month.
Getting him at even money against a veteran who is struggling with his accuracy off the tee is a clear value play.
Take the younger player with the higher ceiling and the much better statistical profile.
Mouw will win this matchup through superior iron play and fewer mistakes off the tee.
Bet William Mouw ML (+100).
SERVICE BIO
Boyd is a former collegiate golfer and University of Iowa Law grad that ensures you success in every sport he covers. Jimmy's quality sports selections with game-breaking analysis make him a major force in the handicapping industry for years to come.
No Brainer: This is one of Jimmy’s highest rated plays. After reading his write-up on the game you will see why this play’s title is so fitting. These picks are reserved for major mismatch advantages and strong value plays.
Heavy Hitter: Jimmy’s Heavy Hitter plays are backed by a wealth of statistical analysis and fit into one or more of his many winning systems. This is the well-rounded gem of Jimmy’s top plays, and it covers games from every angle.
Vegas Insider: Nobody spots a winning system like Jimmy Boyd. His Vegas Insider label is reserved for plays backed by the strongest systems and trends on the board.
Bailout Blowout: There is no better way to end the day than picking up a big win on the final game of the evening. Jimmy’s Bailout Blowouts come on late games and they have built a strong reputation as being a consistent winner.
All of Jimmy’s picks get monitored around the web. Jimmy is one of the very few handicappers that have actually earned the stripes to be regarded as a top Industry player. There are not many handicappers in the industry that can match his long term success rates.
