Jimmy Boyd

5* NO BRAINER on Cavs -130

The Cavs are 10-1 SU in their last 11 home games.

That's the foundation here, and the market is barely charging for it at -130.

Cleveland is the better team on paper over the last 10 games.

The Cavs are putting up 121.8 PPG with a 120 offensive rating and a 2.8 net rating.

The Knicks are at 111.2 PPG, 119.7 offensive rating, 2.5 net.

The pace gap matters.

Cleveland plays at 101.5, New York at 92.65.

At home, with the crowd and the whistle, the Cavs can push tempo and get into their actions.

New York is the league's slowest team trying to drag this into the mud.

The opposition case is real.

New York is 9-0 SU in its last 9 and 4-1 SU in the last 5 against Cleveland.

Donovan Mitchell looked hobbled in Game 2.

Those are legitimate concerns and I'm not waving them off.

Here's why I'm still on Cleveland.

Down 0-2 going home, this is a desperate team that already proved it can climb out of a 2-0 hole.

They did it against Detroit in the previous round.

The 9-0 Knicks streak ends when it ends, and the spot to fade it is a Game 3 with the season on the line at Rocket Arena.

Josh Hart dropped 26 on 5-of-11 from three in Game 2.

His season average is 12.

That's the regression candidate, not Mitchell.

I like the Cavs

4* VEGAS INSIDER on Sky +120

The Lynx come in without Napheesa Collier, Dorka Juhasz, Emma Cechova, and Anastasiia Kosu.

That's four frontcourt bodies, including a 22.9 PPG superstar.

The opposition will point to Minnesota's eFG% of 57% and 36% from deep, and yes, those numbers look great on paper.

They were also built with a frontcourt that isn't walking through the door tonight.

That leaves Natasha Howard and Nia Coffey to handle the paint against Kamilla Cardoso.

Cardoso is averaging 14.4 PPG and just dropped 24 and 11 on Dallas.

She has a clear physical edge in this matchup.

The strongest case against Chicago is Rickea Jackson's season-ending knee injury.

She was averaging 18 PPG on 29.5 minutes and her loss is real.

But Chicago already absorbed that loss and beat Minnesota 86-79 on the road on May 17, holding the Lynx to a season low in points.

They won that game without Jackson at full tilt and without home court.

Chicago's defensive rating sits at 102.5 over the last 10, slightly better than Minnesota's 103.2.

The Sky also take care of the ball with a 14% turnover rate compared to 19% for the Lynx.

That's a meaningful gap when Minnesota is leaning on rookie Olivia Miles to run the offense against veterans Skylar Diggins and Natasha Cloud.

Azura Stevens is also expected back, adding frontcourt insurance behind Cardoso.

At +120 in a rematch the Sky already won, the price is wrong.

I like the Sky

1* Free Pick on Portland Fire +5½

Toronto's frontcourt is gutted.

Isabelle Harrison (hand), Temi Fagbenle (shoulder), and Nyara Sabally (neck) are all out or trending that way.

That leaves Sandy Brondello starting a three-guard look with Laura Juskaite playing out of position.

Against a Portland team starting Luisa Geiselsoder and Emily Engstler, the size mismatch matters.

The Tempo are also playing on 2 days rest after a road trip that ended in a 28-point blowout loss.

Portland gets 3 days off coming in.

Small edge, but in May it shows up.

The opposition case is real.

Portland's defensive rating sits at 115.3 over the last 10 with a -11.4 net rating, and the Fire are 1-4 ATS in their last 5.

Toronto is 4-1 ATS in that same span.

I'm not ignoring that.

But those numbers were built with Sabally in the rotation and a healthier rotation behind Brittney Sykes (31.4 mpg) and Marina Mabrey (26.3 mpg).

Strip out the frontcourt and the Tempo's 108.5 offensive rating leans even harder on a backcourt that just gave up 55% shooting to Minnesota two nights ago.

Portland also has functional scoring.

Bridget Carleton (16.8 PPG) and Carla Leite (15 PPG) are both healthy and active.

Even with Karlie Samuelson and Teja Oblak banged up, the Fire have enough to keep this within a possession or two late.

5.5 is a generous number for a team catching points against four frontcourt absences.

I'll take the points.

I like the Portland Fire

4* VEGAS INSIDER on Rockies/Diamondbacks: over 9

Rockies starter Michael Lorenzen has been the easiest at-bat in baseball this year.

He's running a 7.03 ERA with a .353 batting average against over 237 plate appearances, and his xERA of 6.00 says the regression fairy isn't coming to save him.

The Diamondbacks already saw him six days ago.

On May 17 they tagged Lorenzen for 6 earned runs and 9 hits in 4.2 innings.

Same lineup, same hitter's park, same arm.

That's a green light.

Arizona's Zac Gallen looks fine on the surface at 4.78, but the underlying profile is uglier.

His xERA sits at 5.17 and opponents are slugging an expected .473 against him.

Four of his last five starts have produced 4+ earned runs.

The name is bigger than the stuff right now.

Chase Field with the roof open in 98-degree heat plays as a launching pad, and that's the operating environment today.

The opposition case is the Rockies lineup.

Doyle, Beck, Bryant, and Moniak are all on the IL, and yesterday's 3-2 final between these clubs is fresh.

Fair points.

But Colorado still put up enough on Gallen-quality arms this month, and you're not betting the Rockies offense to be elite, just to scratch across 4 or 5 against a pitcher whose xSLG against is .473.

Combine that with whatever Arizona does to Lorenzen and you clear 9 easily.

I'll pay the -115.

Two starters with xERAs of 6.00 and 5.17 in a hot Chase Field is an Over spot.

I like the Over

3* HEAVY HITTER on Yankees -112

The Rays are the better team on paper at 34-15, but -112 in the Bronx with these two arms going is too cheap.

Start with the pitching matchup.

Rays righty Drew Rasmussen carries a 3.19 ERA but a 3.40 xERA and a .250 xBA, meaning the surface numbers slightly overstate his stuff.

Yankees lefty Ryan Weathers sits at a 3.58 ERA with a 4.12 xERA.

The opposition will tell you Weathers is the regression candidate, and they're not wrong on the xERA gap.

But look at the actual contact data: Weathers is allowing a .232 BA and .298 wOBA, Rasmussen .213 and .268.

The real-world gap between these guys is much smaller than the xERA spread suggests.

Weathers has also shown a high ceiling against quality lineups.

He punched out 9 Orioles over 6.1 innings on May 11 and went 7.1 scoreless against Kansas City on April 19.

He can lock in for stretches.

Rasmussen's swing-and-miss is sliding the other way.

Two strikeouts in 5.1 innings against Miami in his last start, and he's gone five straight without a decision.

The Rays bullpen has had to cover early, which matters in the back half of this game.

Yes, the Rays have owned this matchup head-to-head and the Yankees lineup is short Stanton and Dominguez.

Acknowledged.

But baseball isn't played on H2H ledgers, and a -112 home dog price against the league's best team is a value spot.

I'm picking the price, not the team.

I like the #Yankees

5* NO BRAINER of the Week on Mariners/Royals: under 9

Kansas City's offense has flatlined.

They've scored 9 total runs over their last 6 games and have been shut out four times already this season, including a 2-0 loss to Seattle yesterday.

That's not a slump, that's a unit that can't string at-bats together.

Seattle isn't much better right now.

Cal Raleigh and Brendan Donovan are both on the 10-day IL, so the middle of this order is leaning on Josh Naylor and Randy Arozarena to do the heavy lifting against a 25-27 team that's been a coin flip on run production all year.

Mariners starter George Kirby is the anchor here.

His 3.45 ERA is backed by a 3.21 xERA and a .233 xBA against, which tells you the underlying stuff is still elite.

His last start against San Diego (6 ER in 5.2 IP) was an outlier, not a trend.

Over the four starts before that he allowed 2 ER or fewer three times.

The opposition case is real on Royals starter Stephen Kolek.

His .271 xBA against versus a .203 actual, and a .317 xwOBA versus .278 wOBA, say regression is coming.

I get it.

But Kolek just went 6.1 shutout innings against the Cardinals on May 17, and the Seattle lineup without Raleigh isn't the offense that breaks his luck open today.

Weather cooperates too. 71 degrees with a 7 MPH wind out of the NNW at Kauffman keeps the ball in the yard in a spacious park.

I like the Under