Jimmy Boyd
Jimmy Boyd
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Free picks
1* Free Pick on Sky/Storm: over 176½
Pace and defense are the only two inputs that matter here, and both point the same direction.
Chicago is running at a 99.7 pace over their last 10, Seattle at 99.3.
That's a possession volume floor regardless of who's on the floor.
The defenses are the bigger factor.
Seattle is giving up a 114.8 defensive rating over their last 10, which is bottom of the league.
Chicago sits at 110.2.
Neither side is stopping anyone.
The last time these teams played on August 10, they combined for 185 points in a 97-88 Seattle win.
That's 8.5 points clear of this number in the most recent data point available.
The opposition case is real.
Chicago is down three double-digit scorers in Rickea Jackson (18 PPG), Sydney Taylor (14.7 PPG), and Skylar Diggins (14.2 PPG), and Seattle is missing lead guard Natisha Hiedeman (15.4 PPG, 4.8 APG).
That's a legitimate hit to shot creation on both sides.
Here's why it doesn't move me off the over.
Chicago is still putting up 90.5 PPG over their last 10 with those guys already out for most of that stretch.
Kamilla Cardoso (14.5 PPG) and Azura Stevens (11 PPG) are handling the interior load, and Seattle's 114.8 defensive rating isn't slowing anyone down.
Dominique Malonga is at 17.1 PPG for Seattle and gets a Chicago defense that's leaking at 110.2.
Fast pace, bad defenses, recent 185-point head-to-head.
The number is short.
I like the Over
YESTERDAY'S PLAYS
| Match Up | Pick | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cardinals vs Cubs | UNDER 9½ -120 | Top Premium | 8-4 | Loss | -120 | Show |
| Cowboys vs Seahawks | Cowboys +165 | Free | 17-7 | Win | 165 | Show |
| Toronto vs Edmonton Elks | Edmonton Elks -3 -115 | Top Premium | 12-42 | Win | 100 | Show |
| Browns vs Bears | Browns +1 -110 | Top Premium | 10-34 | Loss | -110 | Show |
PICKS IN PROGRESS
5* NO BRAINER on Marlins/Reds: under 9
Marlins starter Eury Perez brings a 3.39 ERA into Great American Ball Park, and that's the anchor for this under.
Miami has trusted him all year for a reason.
The opposition case here is straightforward: Reds lefty Nick Lodolo carries a 6.18 xERA against a 4.86 ERA, so the peripherals say a blow-up is coming.
That's a fair argument, and it's the one thing that can bury this ticket.
I'm still on the under.
Look at Lodolo's actual game logs.
Over his last five starts he's given up more than 2 earned runs exactly once, that August 11 clunker against the White Sox where he went 4 innings and allowed 4.
Before that: 1 ER in 5, 0 ER in 5, 0 ER in 4.
The stuff hasn't matched the xERA in real games recently.
The lineups help too.
Miami is missing Kyle Stowers, Cincinnati is missing Spencer Steer, and Miami's bottom third with Sanoja, Ruiz, and Joe Mack isn't scaring anyone off a lefty.
Weather is a non-issue. 82 degrees is warm, but wind at 5 MPH from the west at GABP is not a carry pattern.
Balls don't fly out on a light west wind here the way they do with a stiff wind blowing to right.
Perez limits damage, Lodolo has actually been navigating games even with ugly underlying numbers, and the total sits at a fat 9.
That's the number I want on the under.
I like the Under
SERVICE BIO
Boyd is a former collegiate golfer and University of Iowa Law grad that ensures you success in every sport he covers. Jimmy's quality sports selections with game-breaking analysis make him a major force in the handicapping industry for years to come.
No Brainer: This is one of Jimmy’s highest rated plays. After reading his write-up on the game you will see why this play’s title is so fitting. These picks are reserved for major mismatch advantages and strong value plays.
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