Jimmy Boyd

4* VEGAS INSIDER on New Mexico State +29½

Laying 29.5 points in the first week of November is asking a lot, and the market is leaning on recency bias here after Gonzaga's marquee 78-72 win over Purdue on November 2.

Nobody is arguing the result. Gonzaga sits 12th in KenPom's adjusted efficiency margin and the Zags win this game comfortably.

But covering nearly 30 requires 40 minutes of urgency, and Gonzaga's defensive profile does not point to a suffocating wipeout. The Zags are allowing opponents a 51.8% effective field goal percentage, 22nd in adjusted defensive efficiency but soft on shot quality.

They also don't blow up possessions. A 2.9% block rate and a 5.8% steal rate mean New Mexico State gets to run its half-court offense without constant disruption, and clean possessions are exactly how a big dog grinds a number down.

The spot matters too. Gonzaga is coming off a high-major test against Purdue, and team reports highlight six roster newcomers looking for minutes in home buy games. Once Mark Few goes to his bench, the scoring pace against reserves tends to tighten margins late.

To be fair, New Mexico State lost senior guard Gabe Warren to a season-ending injury in its opener. That stings for their chances to win, but this ticket doesn't need a win. It needs buckets in low-leverage minutes, and this Gonzaga defense allows them.

Gonzaga rolls, the Aggies hang around the number. Give me New Mexico State +29.5 (-105) at Gonzaga.

3* HEAVY HITTER on Southern Indiana/Evansville: under 146½

This total is built on pace, and pace is the wrong thing to price here. Both teams run above 71 possessions per 40 minutes in the early KenPom numbers, so the market sees a track meet. What it's glossing over is that neither of these offenses can actually convert those possessions into points.

Southern Indiana sits 344th nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency through two games this season. The shooting splits are ugly everywhere: 36.1% effective field goal percentage, 19% from three, 40% inside the arc, and 52.6% at the free throw line. It's a small early-season sample, but even a healthy bounce from these numbers leaves a bottom-tier offense.

The Screaming Eagles also give possessions away before they ever get a shot up, turning it over on 26% of their offensive trips. Extra possessions from tempo don't matter much when a quarter of them end in a turnover.

Evansville isn't the team to carry this number alone either. The Purple Aces rank 291st in adjusted offensive efficiency, and this is a program that averaged just 70.1 points a game while going 1-9 over its final 10 last season. Nothing in that profile says they hang 80 on anybody.

To clear 146.5, you need two functional offenses. This game has zero. Fast and sloppy produces empty trips, missed threes and bricked free throws, not points.

The play is the Under 146.5 at -115 in Southern Indiana at Evansville.

4* VEGAS INSIDER on Colorado/San Diego State: under 152

This number is built on two box scores that won't repeat here. San Diego State hung 102 on CS Fullerton in its 2026-27 opener, Colorado put 94 on Abilene Christian, and the market is pricing this game like both offenses just do that. That's recency bias in its purest form: one vivid result against an overmatched opponent crowding out the base rate.

Strip the names off those openers and look at the opposition. Fullerton and Abilene Christian are not San Diego State and Colorado. Two power-conference-caliber programs guarding each other is a completely different game than opening-night layup lines.

Colorado's early KenPom profile backs the defensive side of this. The Buffaloes sit 71st in adjusted defensive efficiency, and in the opener they held Abilene Christian to a 42.1% effective field goal mark while forcing turnovers on 18.8% of possessions. They also cleaned the defensive glass, limiting the Wildcats to a 21.6% offensive rebound rate, and kept them off the foul line.

Colorado's offense isn't sustaining its opener either. Shooting 52.6% from three and 64.1% inside the arc against Abilene Christian is a one-game spike, not a baseline. When those numbers regress against a real defense, the scoring comes down with them.

Colorado also took care of the ball in the opener with a turnover rate under 16%, which chokes off the cheap transition buckets that inflate totals like this one.

The market adjusted to two single-game samples. I'm betting the matchup, not the openers. Give me the Under 152 at -128 in Colorado at San Diego State.

5* NO BRAINER on Southern Indiana +9½

Evansville laying 9.5 points requires an offense that can pull away, and the Purple Aces don't have one. They rank 291st nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency early this season, and that scoring ceiling matters a lot more than the gap in overall ratings.

The efficiency margin edge is real but modest. Evansville sits 260th in KenPom's adjusted efficiency margin, Southern Indiana 323rd. That's the difference between two bad teams, not a team that blows out its crosstown neighbor.

It's also worth remembering what Evansville was down the stretch last season: 1-9 over its final 10 games, averaging 70.1 points while giving up 82.2. One game into 2026-27 doesn't erase that profile.

Southern Indiana has the tools to hang around in an ugly game. The Screaming Eagles are rebounding 35.6% of their own misses through two games, which means extra possessions, and they're forcing turnovers on 26% of opponent possessions. Second chances plus takeaways is exactly how an underdog shortens a game and keeps the margin inside single digits.

The spot helps too. This is the inaugural River City Classic at the downtown Ford Center, with a crowd split between two Evansville-based schools. That strips away a chunk of the traditional home edge the number is pricing in.

USI's shooting has been rough early, no way around that. But the market is asking a 291st-ranked offense to win by 10 against a team that crashes the glass and pressures the ball. That's too many points in a game that profiles low-scoring and grinding.

Give me Southern Indiana +9.5 (-110) in the River City Classic against Evansville.

3* HEAVY HITTER on Marshall +7½

Georgia Southern laying 7.5 to a team with a better record is the kind of number that only exists when the market is anchored to one vivid result.

That result is the Eagles' 19-3 home win over App State on October 31. It was impressive, and it is exactly the sort of game that crowds out the base rate. Zoom out and Georgia Southern is 4-4 this season, averaging 23.75 points a game while allowing 20.5.

Marshall is 5-3. The Herd just went into Old Dominion and won 36-23, their most complete game of the year. They are 3-2 over their last 5, averaging 26 a game in that stretch.

Stack the profiles side by side and the gap does not support this spread. Georgia Southern scores 23.75 a game, Marshall scores 23.5. These are two Sun Belt teams separated by almost nothing offensively, and the team with the better record is getting more than a touchdown.

The Eagles also are not bulletproof at home. James Madison walked into their building on October 11 and won 27-24. Marshall's defense has leaked points this season, giving up 29.75 a game, but Georgia Southern's offense has not shown the firepower to consistently blow teams out, topping out at modest numbers in most of their wins.

This line asks Georgia Southern to win comfortably against a team playing its best football right now. I will take the points instead.

Give me Marshall +7.5 (-112) at Georgia Southern.

1* Free Pick on Minnesota +5

UCLA is 8-0 and the market is paying full retail for the story, because this same program went 1-7 over 8 games last season. That kind of turnaround creates a halo, and halos inflate road spreads.

Here's what the halo glosses over. UCLA's two true road tests this season were a 17-15 squeaker at Oregon and the Maryland blowout. Take away one outlier and the Bruins' road profile is a 2-point game. Their offense sits just 38th in SP+. This is a defense-first team, and defense-first teams win, but they don't always cover 5 on the road at noon in November.

Minnesota is built for exactly this kind of game. The Gophers rank 27th in SP+ defense and their home results show it: 20-14 over Michigan, 13-10 over Iowa. At home this season Minnesota plays rock fights and wins them, or at worst keeps them inside a field goal.

The Gophers' offense has been thin lately, 17.8 points a game over the last 5, and the Indiana loss last week was ugly. But this number isn't asking Minnesota to score 30. It's asking them to do what they've done in every home Big Ten game: shorten the game, lean on the defense, and keep it to one score. UCLA's 28.6 points a game over its last 5 came largely at the Rose Bowl against offenses that couldn't answer. Minnesota's defense is a different assignment than Nevada or Michigan State.

Eight-and-oh is real, but 5 points with a top-30 defense at home is the right side of the price. Give me Minnesota +5 (-112) against UCLA.

3* HEAVY HITTER on Rutgers/Wisconsin: under 46

This total comes down to one simple question: where do the points come from on Wisconsin's side of the ball?

The Badgers rank 9th in SP+ defense this season. They're allowing just 15.4 points per game over their last 5. That unit travels, and at home in Madison it's been even stingier.

The flip side is an offense ranked 93rd in SP+ that's scoring 17.2 a game over that same 5-game stretch. Wisconsin just got shut out 30-0 at Iowa. Before that, 7 points at UCLA. This is not a team that puts up crooked numbers.

It gets worse under center. Luke Fickell declined to name a starter at his Monday presser, saying of freshman Ryan Hopkins, "I wish we'd given him some more opportunities earlier in the season when we had some chances." An unsettled quarterback room in November against anyone is a drag on scoring.

Rutgers brings a 2-6 team averaging 27.75 points per game, but that number was built against defenses nowhere near this caliber. The Scarlet Knights managed 15 against Indiana and 14 at Northwestern. When they've faced real defensive fronts, the offense has stalled.

Add it up: Wisconsin's last 5 games have produced totals of 30, 31, 24, 34 and 44 points. Even Rutgers' leaky defense, ranked 124th in SP+, doesn't change the math much when the Badgers can't get out of their own way offensively.

Slow pace, a top-10 defense, a quarterback controversy and a visiting offense facing its toughest test in weeks. The play is the Under 46 (-110) in Rutgers at Wisconsin.

3* HEAVY HITTER on Iowa/Northwestern: under 45½

Iowa's defense is the whole story in this one, and it travels to Evanston allowing just 12.5 points per game across 8 games this season.

The Hawkeyes just blanked Wisconsin 30-0. Before that, the Minnesota game produced 23 total points. Four of Iowa's last 5 games have landed under 45.5, and the lone exception was the 41-24 shootout at Washington back in early October.

Northwestern is having a real year at 6-2 and averaging 33.6 points per game, but look at where the fireworks came from: 45 on Ball State, 42 on Rutgers. The market is paying for those box scores. Iowa's defense is a completely different assignment than anything on that stretch, and I expect the Wildcats' output to get cut down hard on Saturday night.

The other half of this total is Iowa's offense, which is averaging 23 points over its last 5 and is working without its lead back. "We don't have Kamari in there right now, so it's a committee." That was Kirk Ferentz after the Wisconsin game. A committee backfield in a Kirk Ferentz offense means grind-it-out football, long drives, shortened game, fewer total possessions for both sides.

This sets up as a classic Big Ten November night game: Iowa leaning on its defense and the run, Northwestern facing its toughest defensive test in weeks. The math on both sides points down.

Give me the Under 45.5 (-110) in Iowa at Northwestern.

3* HEAVY HITTER on Cincinnati/Houston: under 62½

This total is priced off Cincinnati's shootouts, not off what Houston actually does to a game.

Houston is allowing just 21 points per game through 8 games this season, 22.8 over its last 5. The Cougars rank 45th in SP+ defense while Cincinnati sits all the way down at 78th on that side, but the number that matters here is what Houston's games actually produce.

Look at the recent slate. The trip to Utah landed at 34 total points. UCF at home was 44. The road win at Kansas State was 51. Even with the Oklahoma State game hitting 67, Houston's last 5 have averaged about 53 combined points. That is nearly 10 below this line.

Cincinnati is the team the market is paying for, and that offense is cooling at the wrong time. The Bearcats averaged 34.1 a game across the full season, but just 28.4 over the last 5, including a 7-point dud at Arizona and 25 in last week's home loss to Utah. Against defenses with teeth, this attack has stalled.

That is the recency trap in this number: bettors remember the 45-42 West Virginia game and the 37-24 win over Texas Tech, so 62.5 feels makeable. But Houston does not play that style. The Cougars have been a 4-1 team over their last 5 by grinding games into the low 50s and letting the defense set the terms.

When the better team wants a controlled game at home, the total usually follows. Give me the Under 62.5 at -110 in Cincinnati at Houston.

5* NO BRAINER on New Mexico State +17

Liberty has earned its reputation this season, and that reputation is exactly what inflated this number to 17. The Flames are 7-1, they've won 5 straight, and the last three results read 49-10 over Florida International, 34-6 at Kennesaw State, and 35-3 over Sam Houston. When a team keeps posting scores like that, the market anchors to the blowouts and prices in another one. That's recency bias setting the line, not the matchup.

New Mexico State is 3-5 and nobody is confusing the Aggies with a good team. But they went into Sam Houston and won 30-24, the same Sam Houston program Liberty beat. They also handled Western Kentucky 34-13 at home. This roster has shown it can compete in Conference USA spots, which is all a 17-point ticket asks of it. The honest note: they were shut out 24-0 by Jacksonville State in their last game, so the floor here is real.

Still, 17 points on the road in conference play is a big ask. Liberty's defense has been allowing 10 points a game over its last five, so the path to a cover probably isn't a shootout. It's New Mexico State at home on a Saturday night keeping this a two-score game, or catching a late touchdown when Liberty is managing the clock instead of pressing for style points. We don't need the upset, we need the margin.

Give me New Mexico State +17 (-110) in the Liberty at New Mexico State game.