Jimmy Boyd
Jimmy Boyd
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PREMIUM PICK STREAKS
All Sports Sides (+24189) 4661-4197 L8858 53%
MLB Money Lines (+15590) 993-872 L1865 53%
PGA Picks (+5196) 304-248 L552 55%
WNBA Picks (+4794) 226-163 L389 58%
Football Sides (+2677) 778-690 L1468 53%
NCAA-B Sides (+2627) 1219-1092 L2311 53%
Top NCAA-F Sides (+2545) 207-167 L374 55%
CFL Picks (+1852) 38-18 L56 68%
NBA Totals (+1807) 542-484 L1026 53%
NFL Sides (+1616) 169-139 L308 55%
Soccer Picks (+1594) 56-43 L99 57%
NFLX Picks (+1242) 61-44 L105 58%
Fighting Picks (+962) 40-29 L69 58%
Top Basketball Totals (+802) 247-220 L467 53%
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**5x Top 10 WNBA handicapper!**
The WNBA playoffs are one of the softest betting markets out there — but most bettors either ignore it or get crushed chasing headlines and star names. The books know the public isn’t paying attention, and that’s exactly where the biggest edges can be found.
I’ve proven time and again that I know how to capitalize. With five documented Top-10 finishes in WNBA handicapping on this site, I’ve built a long-term track record of beating the books in a market where few handicappers can win consistently.
Here’s what you get with my WNBA Playoffs pass:
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College basketball is a grind. Hundreds of teams, daily action, and unpredictable upsets make it nearly impossible for casual bettors to win long term. The books thrive on that chaos — and most players end up watching their bankroll slowly disappear.
That’s where I deliver. With six documented Top-10 finishes in CBB handicapping on this very site, I’ve proven season after season that I can cut through the noise and find consistent edges. My clients don’t just survive the college hoops season — they build their bankrolls while everyone else struggles.
Here’s what you get with a full season pass:
Every CBB pick I release from opening tip through the Final Four.
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**#1 RATED BASKETBALL HANDICAPPER (TWICE)**!
College hoops and the NBA are two of the most profitable markets — if you know what you’re doing. The problem is, most bettors get buried by the volume of games, constant line moves, and emotional swings. They spread themselves too thin, and their bankroll doesn’t survive until March.
That’s where I deliver. I’ve landed six documented Top-10 finishes in CBB and six in the NBA on this site — a proven track record of beating the books in both sports year after year. Very few handicappers can match that level of consistency across the board.
Here’s what you get with this combo pass:
Every NBA and CBB pick I release all season long — from tip-off in October to the NBA Finals and Final Four.
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Two proven edges: take advantage of both the college and pro schedules, with more plays and more opportunities to grow your bankroll.
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The truth is most NBA bettors lose. The lines are sharp, the schedule is long, and bad beats stack up fast. If you’ve tried going it alone, you’ve probably seen your bankroll shrink instead of grow.
That’s why you need to ride with someone who has done it year after year. I’m not just another handicapper throwing darts — I’ve landed six Top-10 finishes in NBA handicapping on this very site. That’s a documented track record of producing more profits than almost anyone else in the industry.
Here’s what you get with my full NBA season pass:
Every NBA pick I release all season long — sides, totals, and premium-rated plays.
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**6x Top 10 MLB handicapper!**
The MLB regular season is a grind, and the playoffs are a whole different beast. Every pitch matters, every bullpen move is magnified, and the lines are tighter than ever. Casual bettors get eaten alive this time of year by chasing momentum, overreacting to headlines, and watching their bankrolls crumble.
That’s where I thrive. My edge gets even sharper in the postseason because I know how to read matchups, rotations, and pressure situations that the sportsbooks can’t fully account for. When the public is betting with emotion, I’m betting with data, and that’s why my clients make money when it matters most.
Here’s what you’ll get with this subscription:
Every MLB pick I release — sides, totals, and premium-rated best bets.
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Free picks
1* Free Pick on Cubs/Cardinals: under 8½
Cubs righty Ben Brown takes the ball with a 2.01 ERA, and the Statcast numbers say it's real.
His xERA sits at 2.88, his xBA is .215, and he's holding hitters to a .307 xSLG across 178 plate appearances.
That's not a small-sample mirage.
Hitters aren't barreling him up.
His recent work backs it.
Brown threw 4 shutout innings of one-hit ball at Atlanta on May 14 and another 4 scoreless against Texas on May 8.
He's gone at least 4 innings in every start with one earned run or fewer in three of his last four.
The Cardinals lineup has also lost real bats.
Lars Nootbaar and Ramón Urías are both on the IL, and the under has cashed in 13 of St.
Louis' last 19 games.
The home-side trend on this specific matchup is even sharper: the under is 4-1 in St.
Louis' last 6 home games against the Cubs.
The pushback is fair.
Kyle Leahy's 4.44 ERA hides a 6.33 xERA and a .514 xSLG allowed, and he just got tagged for 5 earned in 5 innings by Cincinnati.
He's a regression candidate.
But Leahy has still posted 1 earned run or fewer in three of his last five starts, and the Cubs have to actually do the damage, the same Cubs offense that just faced Brown's level of stuff in their own rotation work.
82 degrees with a 10 MPH east wind at Busch isn't a launch environment either.
The wind is neutral to slightly in.
I like the Under
YESTERDAY'S PLAYS
PICKS IN PROGRESS
4* VEGAS INSIDER on Mackenzie Hughes -115
This Round 3 matchup is a classic regression spot.
Mackenzie Hughes is the steadier player, and the price at -115 is fair for a guy with 261 PGA TOUR starts and two wins against a rookie making his Colonial debut.
A.J.
Ewart had the round of his life on Friday.
A 63 with a hole-in-one on 16 will do that.
But his live SG: APP of +4.27 sits nearly five strokes above his season baseline of -0.268.
That's not a skill jump, that's variance.
The opposition case is real: Hughes is only at +0.30 SG: APP this week and is leaning on +3.27 putting and +2.09 around-the-green to keep pace.
Fair point.
But Colonial rewards exactly that profile.
The 'Horrible Horseshoe' (holes 3-5) has played +0.51 over par since 2003, the toughest non-major 3-5 stretch on TOUR.
Scrambling and putting carry weight here.
Hughes also has the skill edge in the categories that travel.
He's at +0.252 SG: Putt and +0.280 SG: ARG on the season versus Ewart's +0.171 and +0.119.
The distance gap matters too: +1.044 driving distance for Hughes against -0.794 for Ewart means shorter clubs into greens on a Par 70 where iron play decides everything.
Ewart is a 203rd-ranked player who's never won on TOUR, sitting T11 off a round he'll likely never shoot again.
Hughes is 162nd, two-time winner, and priced like the lesser side.
I'll take the veteran at a number that's discounting everything except Friday's box score.
I like Mackenzie Hughes
3* HEAVY HITTER on Russell Henley +110
Henley sits T6 at -8 through two rounds.
Aberg sits T15 at -6.
The market is still pricing this on world ranking and pre-tournament narrative, not on what's actually happened at Colonial this week.
The case for Aberg is the obvious one.
He's DG rank 5 with a 2.078 SG: Total skill rating versus Henley's 1.360, and his +13.643 yard driving distance edge is real.
That's why he opened the week as the favorite.
I get it.
Here's why it doesn't override the price.
Colonial is not a bomber's track.
It's 7,289 yards, par 70, with 27-yard fairways that reward accuracy and a Left-to-Right shot shape.
Henley is +0.108 driving accuracy on the year and leads the TOUR in scrambling per the broadcast notes.
This is his exact course profile.
Through two rounds Henley has gained +5.61 strokes tee-to-green to Aberg's +0.94.
The approach gap is the killer: +4.71 for Henley, +1.86 for Aberg.
Aberg is only this close because he's gained +3.37 putting.
Henley has gained +0.69.
Putting variance regresses.
Ball-striking holds.
Aberg has also lost -1.32 strokes around the green this week, which is a problem on Colonial's 5,000 square foot greens with 20mph gusts and a 100-degree heat index drying everything out.
Firm and breezy is the worst possible setup for a player relying on a hot putter.
Henley is the better fit, the better current form, and he gets a plus-money number.
That's the bet.
I like Russell Henley
3* HEAVY HITTER on Michael Thorbjornsen +110
Through 36 holes at Colonial, Brian Harman and Michael Thorbjornsen are both at -9, T2 on the leaderboard.
The price says Thorbjornsen is the dog.
The numbers say he shouldn't be.
Baseline talent favors Thorbjornsen.
His SG: Total over the long sample sits at 0.703 versus Harman's 0.499.
Off the tee is the cleanest gap: Thorbjornsen at +0.556 SG: OTT and +11.3 yards of driving distance, Harman at -0.121 and -6.5 yards.
Colonial rewards exactly what Thorbjornsen does well.
Per the PGA Tour shot-shape notes, 11 of 14 par-4s and par-5s here favor a left-to-right tee shot, and last year the field played a left-to-right shape 58% of the time off the tee.
The opposition case is real and I want to address it.
Harman is gaining 5.95 strokes on approach this week and ranks 2nd in the field.
That's the number that built this line.
But it's also the number most likely to revert.
His career baseline is 0.262 SG: APP.
Thorbjornsen, meanwhile, is putting at +2.46 against a -0.085 career mark, so there's regression risk on both sides.
The difference is Thorbjornsen's Round 2 ball-striking backed up the price: 16 of 18 greens hit, and his own read was that the irons were "really good or acceptable."
Thorbjornsen's win probability per DataGolf is 1.59% versus Harman's 0.86%, nearly double.
That alone implies he should be the favorite in this head-to-head, not a +110 dog.
I like Michael Thorbjornsen
3* HEAVY HITTER on Michael Brennan +120
This is a Round 3 head-to-head at Colonial with both players sitting T11 at -7.
The market is pricing Meissner as the favorite based on his DataGolf rank of 60 versus Brennan's 122.
I'm taking the dog at +120.
Here's why the price is wrong.
Through 36 holes, Brennan is gaining 1.7 strokes off the tee.
Meissner is losing 0.34.
That's a massive gap at a 7,289-yard track where the par 5s reward distance, and Brennan's 18.5 driving distance skill rating dwarfs Meissner's 2.
The opposition case is real and I'm not going to dance around it.
Meissner has the better tee-to-green number this week at 4.8, and Brennan's 3.06 SG putting screams regression.
Fair.
But Brennan isn't just riding the flat stick.
He went from 10 of 18 greens in Round 1 to 16 of 18 in Round 2.
The ball-striking is trending up, not down, and his own words back it up.
Meissner's case rests on a baseline skill profile that hasn't shown up yet this week.
Brennan's case rests on what's actually happening on the ground in Fort Worth.
I'll take the live form over the season-long rank at plus money every time.
The Who Will Win profile flags Brennan as too young at 24 to win the tournament.
I'm not betting him to win the tournament.
I'm betting him to beat one guy over 18 holes, and the matchup data says he's the better player right now.
I like Michael Brennan
5* NO BRAINER on Tigers -117
The Tigers are 22-36 and losers of 11 of their last 13.
I know how that looks.
The market knows too, and still posted Detroit as a -117 favorite on the road.
When a 2-11 team is laying juice, the price is telling you something about the other side.
That something is White Sox starter Anthony Kay.
The 3.96 ERA looks fine on the surface.
The 5.71 xERA underneath it does not.
Kay is allowing a .276 xBA against a .253 actual mark, and a .450 xSLG versus a .419 slugging line.
The contact quality has been ugly, the results have been lucky, and regression on a pitcher running that wide a gap shows up in a hurry.
Tigers starter Framber Valdez is the steadier arm.
His 4.28 ERA lines up with a 4.42 xERA, so what you see is what you get.
He's coming off six innings of two-hit, one-run work against Baltimore on May 24.
In four of his last five starts he's gone at least six innings and allowed two earned or fewer.
The opposition case is real.
Detroit's lineup is banged up with Torres, Baez, and Carpenter all on the 10-day IL, and the road form (1-6 in the last 7) is ugly.
But Riley Greene and Spencer Torkelson are still in the middle of this order, and Kay is exactly the kind of contact-managing lefty who gives up the long ball when the xSLG catches up.
I'm taking the better pitcher at a fair number against a regression candidate.
I like the Tigers
SERVICE BIO
Boyd is a former collegiate golfer and University of Iowa Law grad that ensures you success in every sport he covers. Jimmy's quality sports selections with game-breaking analysis make him a major force in the handicapping industry for years to come.
No Brainer: This is one of Jimmy’s highest rated plays. After reading his write-up on the game you will see why this play’s title is so fitting. These picks are reserved for major mismatch advantages and strong value plays.
Heavy Hitter: Jimmy’s Heavy Hitter plays are backed by a wealth of statistical analysis and fit into one or more of his many winning systems. This is the well-rounded gem of Jimmy’s top plays, and it covers games from every angle.
Vegas Insider: Nobody spots a winning system like Jimmy Boyd. His Vegas Insider label is reserved for plays backed by the strongest systems and trends on the board.
Bailout Blowout: There is no better way to end the day than picking up a big win on the final game of the evening. Jimmy’s Bailout Blowouts come on late games and they have built a strong reputation as being a consistent winner.
All of Jimmy’s picks get monitored around the web. Jimmy is one of the very few handicappers that have actually earned the stripes to be regarded as a top Industry player. There are not many handicappers in the industry that can match his long term success rates.
