Jimmy Boyd

3* HEAVY HITTER on Valkyries +3½

The Aces are dealing with a backcourt that's barely held together.

Chennedy Carter (17.5 PPG) is out, Dana Evans hasn't played all year, and Jewell Loyd is a game-time call after missing the last two with a leg issue.

That leaves Chelsea Gray and Jackie Young carrying the entire perimeter load with Kierstan Bell (1 PPG) as the next guard up.

The opposition case is real.

Las Vegas shoots 49% from the floor to Golden State's 41%, and A'ja Wilson at 24.8 and 15 against a frontcourt without Iliana Rupert is a legitimate problem.

Wilson is going to get hers.

The question is who else scores enough to cover.

That's where the math tilts.

Golden State has the better net rating over the last 10 (7.5 vs 4.6) and a lower defensive rating (103.4 vs 104.3).

The Valkyries shoot 39% from three, which is the exact weapon you want against a thin guard rotation that can't chase shooters off screens for 40 minutes.

The ATS profile backs it up.

Golden State is 13-6-1 ATS in its last 20.

Vegas is 2-4 ATS in its last 6.

The market shaded this to -115 on the dog side, which tells me sharp money already noticed the injury report.

Yes, Vegas has won 4 of the last 5 head-to-head, and yes, they had four days of rest to Golden State's two.

I'll take 3.5 with a depleted backcourt across from me at this price.

I like the Valkyries

4* VEGAS INSIDER on Guardians/Rangers: under 8

Both starters in this one have xERAs that look ugly on the surface, but the matchup-specific read points under.

Rangers righty Jack Leiter is coming off his sharpest start of the year: 5.2 innings, 0 runs, 10 strikeouts against Kansas City on May 31st.

His season ERA sits at 4.34 with a 4.50 xERA, and the underlying contact numbers are better than the line suggests, with a .235 BA against and .317 wOBA across 287 plate appearances.

Cleveland's lineup is one of the lowest-slug offenses in the league, and Steven Kwan hitting seventh tells you how far down the order the real threats fall behind Jose Ramirez.

Guardians righty Tanner Bibee is 0-7 with a 4.57 ERA, but the rate stats are stable. .258 xBA.334 xwOBA, 4.56 xERA.

He's also gone 6+ innings in four of his last five starts, including 8 innings of 1-run ball at Detroit on May 20th.

The opposition case leans on Bibee's 7-ER meltdown against Washington on May 25th and the return of Corey Seager and Wyatt Langford from the IL.

Fair points.

But Friday's series opener went 3-2, which tells you the Rangers lineup isn't instantly humming, and Bibee's blow-up was an outlier inside a stretch of otherwise efficient starts.

The combined xERA math gets cited as 9.06, but that assumes nine innings from each starter, which never happens.

Once you trim to realistic workloads in a dome with no weather kicker, 8 is a fat number.

I like the Under

1* Free Pick on A's/Astros: over 9

Both starting pitchers in this one have real holes, and we're indoors at Daikin Park where weather can't drag the total down.

Astros starter Tatsuya Imai has been better lately, but the underlying numbers say it's noise.

His season ERA sits at 5.52 with a 5.28 xERA, and hitters are posting a .356 xwOBA against him.

That's not a guy you trust to anchor an under at 9.

I know the opposition wants to point at Imai's last two outings: 12 innings, 2 earned runs.

Fair.

But he walked 6 across those starts and has a season-long control problem, with three starts this year of 3+ walks.

The xwOBA gap of 60 points between actual and expected is the tell.

The next ugly outing is closer than the bookers are pricing.

On the other side, A's starter Kade Morris is making his MLB debut after a 4.45 ERA and 1.47 WHIP at Triple-A Las Vegas.

That's a vulnerable arm walking into a lineup that ranks 7th in MLB in slugging and just got Jose Altuve back from the IL.

Yordan Alvarez is hitting .395 with 5 HRs over his last 10 games.

Debutants with a 1.47 WHIP don't quiet that group.

The A's offense is banged up with Wilson, Muncy, and Clarke all on the IL, and that's the cleanest under angle.

I don't need them to explode.

I need 4 or 5, and Imai's 5.52 ERA gets me there.

Dome game, two flawed starters, one healthy elite bat in Alvarez.

Over plays.

I like the Over

4* VEGAS INSIDER on Giants/Cubs: under 8½

Cubs starter Ben Brown is the anchor here.

He's posted a 1.92 ERA across his current run, and the underlying profile holds up well enough at a 2.93 xERA to trust him in this spot.

Over his last five starts he's gone at least 4 innings every time and held opponents to a .180 BAA.

Wrigley conditions matter.

Day-of reports have wind blowing in from center at 8-10 MPH, which kills the carry on balls that would otherwise scrape the basket.

The 81 degree temp gets cited as a run-scoring boost, but inward wind at Wrigley historically trumps temperature.

The opposition will point to yesterday's 18-3 Giants explosion and Casey Schmitt's 4-hit day as a sign San Francisco's bats are rolling.

I don't buy the carryover.

The Giants are 26-38 for a reason, they're without Heliot Ramos and Harrison Bader, and one outlier game against a bullpen blowup isn't a trend.

Regression goes the other way more often than not.

Giants starter Landen Roupp had his own disaster last time out (8 ER, 5 BB in 4 IP), but his season-long 3.30 xERA against a 4.22 ERA says he's pitched better than his line.

The Cubs lineup is solid but not the type to detonate against a strike-thrower in a park playing this way.

Market has this juiced to -125, which tells me sharps got here first.

The true number is closer to 8.

I'll still pay the price because the wind and Brown's form do the heavy lifting.

I like the Under

5* NO BRAINER on Reds/Cardinals: under 9½

Cincinnati's offense walks into Busch Stadium missing Elly De La Cruz, Jose Trevino, and Ke'Bryan Hayes, all parked on the 10-Day IL.

That's the engine of the lineup gone, and what's left is a 7-8-9 of Noelvi Marte, Matt McLain, and P.J.

Higgins.

Cardinals lefty Matthew Liberatore doesn't need to be sharp to navigate that.

Liberatore sits at 3-3 with a 4.35 ERA, nothing special, but he doesn't have to be against this group.

The Reds are 31-31 and their best hitters are in street clothes.

On the other side, Reds lefty Nick Lodolo is 2-1 with a 5.20 ERA and the underlying numbers are uglier.

His 6.65 xERA and .392 xwOBA allowed are the bear case for the Under, and I'm not ignoring it.

The Cardinals can absolutely tag him.

But Lodolo has actually gone 6 and 6.2 innings in two of his last three starts, allowing 1 and 3 earned runs.

He's been wild, 4 and 5 walks in those outings, but he's been stranding traffic.

St.

Louis at 33-28 hasn't been a juggernaut offense either, and Liberatore is left-handed against a Reds lineup that's right-handed top to bottom outside of Bleday.

Weather is mild. 82 degrees, 9 MPH wind out of the SW, not a wind-out gale.

Two lefties, one depleted lineup, one inconsistent home offense. 9.5 is a number I'll take the Under on.

I like the Under

5* NO BRAINER on Edmonton Elks +155

Edmonton at +155 is a number that doesn't match the actual matchup.

Some books have this game priced at +118 to +130.

That's a 25-cent gap, and the value lives in that gap.

The biggest reason: Ottawa lost RB Greg Bell late Friday with a neck injury.

Bell is the second-highest-paid back in the league.

His replacement is practice-roster call-up Elijah Collins making his first career start.

That's a massive Week 1 hit to an offense that's already debuting a new quarterback under new head coach Ryan Dinwiddie.

Edmonton brings the continuity edge.

Cody Fajardo is back at QB with All-CFL receiver Austin Mack and RB Justin Rankin added in the offseason.

Week 1 in the CFL almost always rewards the team that didn't just rebuild the entire operating system.

The forecast helps too.

TD Place is looking at 44 km/h wind gusts and thunderstorm risk.

That environment favors a veteran QB and a settled offensive line over a new system trying to find its footing.

The opposition case is real.

Ottawa's defense gave up 15 total points across two preseason games against Montreal, and Edmonton is missing DL Brandon Barlow and DB Benjamin Sangmuah on defense.

I get it.

But preseason scoreboard reads against a Montreal team in vanilla looks don't translate cleanly to Week 1 with a new coordinator's full playbook on tape.

And defense isn't the side carrying Ottawa tonight, the offense is, and that offense just lost its best skill player.

At +155 with other books at +118, I'm taking the price.

I like the Edmonton Elks