Matt Fargo

This is a play on the KANSAS CITY ROYALS for our Monday Free Play. Kansas City suffered through a seven-game losing streak but salvaged the series finale against Cleveland and then swept the Twins over the weekend to take a 2.5-game lead over Minnesota for the No. 2 spot in the American League Wild Card. The pitching put up its best four-game stretch during this run as Kansas City allowed a total of four runs against two very solid offenses and now it is tested again and we are catching an overinflated number which is always the case based on the opponent. The Yankees were unable to complete the sweep in Chicago as they lost to the Cubs 2-1 on Sunday with the pitching putting on a clinic as they allowed only two runs in the three-game set after allowing 41 runs in their previous five games and we can foresee a reversion to that. While the pitching was lights out over the weekend, the offense managed only six runs and while it is still one of the best in baseball, they have a tougher than anticipated matchup tonight despite what the number may be saying. Brady Singer had a great 2022 season as he posted a 3.23 ERA and 1.14 WHIP across 27 games but he regressed considerably last season as he had a 5.52 ERA and 1.45 WHIP in 29 starts but he has gotten his command back and will be an integral part in the Royals postseason. He is coming off a pair of solid outings against the Guardians and Astros to give him a 3.35 ERA and 1.24 WHIP in 28 starts but he has not been able to get many wins including recently as Kansas City has gone 1-5 in his last six games with run support the issue with just 1.6 rpg backing him. Carlos Rodon got off to a good start this season but has been on the decline as he has posted a 5.60 ERA since June 15 which is No. 76 among 77 quality starters. He does have one of the best K% over this stretch but also has one of the worst BB% which negate each other and that has led to his 1.41 WHIP. He too has been hurt by run support as the offense has given him just 2.3 rpg over his last four outings. Play (957) Kansas City Royals

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This is a play on the BALTIMORE ORIOLES as part of our Monday Double Play. Baltimore came out of the All Star Break with a pair or blowout wins over Texas and since then, the Orioles have been a below average team going 22-24 following a pair of losses against Tampa Bay over the weekend to close out their homestand and they did so by scoring one run over those two games. Baltimore has now scored four runs in its last four games and it come into tonight as the underdog as they have still dominated the division with a 29-17 record while their 40-29 road record is third best in baseball. Boston took two of three against the White Sox to open its six-game homestand but the Sunday loss dropped the Red Sox to 33-39 at home which is ahead of only the White Sox and Angels in the entire American League. They remain four games out of the final Wild Card spot in the American League and they have seen Detroit and Seattle overtake them so the hopes are getting slimmer. The pitching carried them for a while but the Red Sox have been one of the worst staffs in all of baseball with a 4.99 ERA since August 1 which includes a 6.24 ERA from the bullpen, easily the worst in baseball. Brayan Bello got off to a rough start but was on a solid run since mid-July as he had allowed three runs or less in seven straight starts including four at home but two came against Texas and Kansas City which are in the bottom half of the league in road OPS. He has since made two home starts against Arizona and Toronto with mixed results and he now has a 4.92 ERA at home and his command remains an issue as his 11.3% K-BB% is tied for No. 54 among 61 qualified starters. Cade Povich was brought back up two weeks ago after a rough time in Baltimore prior to being demoted as between June 6 and July 29, he made eight starts, posting a 6.27 ERA with 25 strikeouts and 23 walks over 37.1 innings. He looked good down in Norfolk in his two starts prior to the callup and he was solid in his first start against Boston and while he struggled against the Astros and Dodgers in back-to-back starts he bounced back against the White Sox, which we are not taking too much from, but it was a confidence boost and faces a Boston team 16-24 against lefty starters. 10* (959) Baltimore Orioles

This is a play on the ATLANTA BRAVES RL as part of our Monday Double Play. The Braves were finally able to gain some ground in the National League Wild Card as their 4-3 win coupled with the 3-1 Mets loss, they got back into a tie with New York for the final spot. Atlanta remains home where it is now 40-30 and closes out this homestand with this makeup game from a July 23 postponement and this is the final home game of the season against a team that is not currently in a playoff spot so this should be the runaway. Of their 78 wins, 62 have been by two runs or more and by an average of 4.2 rpg and the Sunday win snapped a streak of eight straight wins by two runs or more. This is the value play tonight with the pitching matchup as of the 13 Atlanta wins with Charlie Morton on the hill, 11 have been by two runs or more and overall, by an average of 3.2 rpg. The Reds won that 3-1 game against the Mets to avoid the sweep and while we were on them there, we are backing off them here as the line yesterday was just a bad inflated number. Cincinnati has not been horrible on the road as it is now three games under .500 but they are below average in the bottom third percentile in most hitting metrics on the road and the other side has not been much better and the splits go against this pitching matchup tonight. The Braves are No. 2 in baseball with a 3.53 ERA with Chris Sale playing a big part of that but Morton has done his share of late as after getting rocked by Milwaukee for eight runs, he has allowed three runs or less in his last five outings where he has a 3.25 ERA and his strikeout numbers have increased considerably as he has 36 over this stretch, easily his best five-game run of the season. While it is a small sample size, his 30.3% K% is No. 7 among 74 qualified starters and faces an offense that is the seventh highest in K%% since July 1. Nick Martinez got back into the rotation in early August and he did not allow a run in his first two starts covering 12 innings but he has been all over the place since then as he has posted a 5.55 ERA over his last five starts and has not been able to get out of the fifth inning in his last four outings. That ERA is No. 67 among 72 qualified starters since August 16 while his 10.0% K-BB% is ranked No. 65. 10* (954) Atlanta Braves -1.5 Runs

This is a play on the NEW YORK JETS for our NFL Monday Star Attraction. The 49ers fell just short once again as they made it to the Super Bowl for the second time in five years but lost to Kansas City yet again and it was their third Super Bowl loss in the last 12 seasons. They are favored to win the NFC once again but the conference is getting stronger and this will be an interesting year to see how they handle an offseason that was not a smooth one and how they can recover from yet another close call. This is still one of the best rosters in the league but this is not a good spot in the opener against a legitimate team. Since 2000, Super Bowl losers have gone 5-19 ATS in the opening week the following season and while it has leveled out somewhat more recently (3-3 ATS L6), those three winners did not go against the best of competition, the last two opponents being the 2023 Patriots and 2019 Panthers which went a combined 9-24 those seasons and the 2018 Texans which were a respectable 10-6. Additionally, Monday night favorites have been bankroll burners, going 19-41-1 ATS since 1980 and this is all based on the public riding those sides with inflated numbers. Expectations are high for the Jets for a second straight season following last year when their season was basically over after four snaps when Aaron Rodgers went down with an Achilles injury. It was up to Zack Wilson to take over the offense and it was a disaster with New York finishing dead last in the league in Offensive EPA and Offensive Passing EPA and they averaged 10.4 ppg in their 10 losses. Rodgers is not the same quarterback he once was is our guess after not seeing him in a while but he will breathe life into the offense. The defense kept the Jets respectable last season as they were No. 3 in Defensive EPA thanks to an outstanding secondary which should be even better with safety Chuck Clark coming back after missing all of last season with a torn ACL. The rushing defense was an issue but Quinnen Williams can still dominate and the signing of Leki Fotu could be a huge addition. Anything over a field goal is a bonus and it would not be surprising to see this number go up slightly with public money not hitting the 49ers yet. 10* (481) New York Jets