Matt Fargo Sports Picks

This is a play on the HOUSTON ASTROS for our MLB Monday Sweet Spot. Houston is coming off a 4-2 homestand including wins in two straight games to pretty much lock up a playoff spot. The Mariners are four games behind the Astros for second place in the American League West. Since the Astros already have clinched the season series against Seattle it is actually a five-game deficit as Houston owns the tiebreaker. Houston is 24-2 over the last 26 meetings and it send Lance McCullers to the hill to get a playoff clinching win here. He is coming off a great outing where he allowed no runs on two hits and no walks over seven innings. He is 7-2 with a 2.95 ERA in 13 career starts against Seattle. Marco Gonzales counters for the Mariners and he is coming off a rough outing where he allowed five runs in six innings where he allowed two home runs. He has struggled against the Astros, going 0-5 with a 7.22 ERA in eight career appearances, including seven starts. Here, we play against underdogs with a slugging percentage of .400 or worse and batting .215 or worse over their last 15 games against a starting pitcher with a WHIP of 1.30 or lower. This situation is 63-14 81.8 percent) over the last 5 seasons. 10* (919) Houston Astros

This is a play on the TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING for our NHL Monday Breakaway. We won with Dallas on Saturday and we are banking on Tampa Bay to bounce back tonight. The Lightning have not lost consecutive games in the postseason as they are a perfect 4-0 following a loss and a perfect 5-0 in the bubble after the defeat. The Lightning lost despite outshooting the Stars 36-19 and they have now outshot the opposition in five straight games. For two periods, the Lightning looked like a team coming off nine periods of hockey in two games against the Islanders and it certainly looked like a letdown before coming out strong in the last period. The Lightning showed what they are capable of in the final 20 minutes according to Natural Stat Trick as Tampa Bay had a 43-3 edge in shot attempts in the third period. Tampa Bay is 13-2 after a loss by two goals or more in their previous game this season. Here, we play on teams in the second half of the season with a winning percentage between .600 and .700 revenging a home loss of three goals or more. This situation is 43-13 (76.8 percent) over the last 5 seasons. 10* (24) Tampa Bay Lightning

This is a play on the LAS VEGAS RAIDERS for our NFL Monday Star Attraction. The Raiders won their season opener over Carolina 34-30 and head home for their first game ever in Las Vegas albeit with no fans. While the Saints won their opener last Sunday, they were actually outgained by Tampa Bay by 39 yards. They took a bigger hit as they lost wide receiver Michael Thomas for a few weeks with a high ankle sprain and he is an obviously a big part of this offense. The Saints run defense has been one of the best in the league the last few years but they will be tested here as running back Josh Jacobs ran for 93 yards and three touchdowns and caught four passes for 46 yards in the opener. The offensive line did a great job from that standpoint and Derek Carr was under pressure on only 10 percent of his dropbacks for the game, the best rate in the league in Week One, according to Pro Football Focus. Here, we play against favorites off a home win, in the first month of the season. This situation is 77-37 ATS (67.5 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (290) Las Vegas Raiders