Matt Fargo

This is a play on the DENVER NUGGETS as part of our NBA Saturday Triple Play. We played against Milwaukee last night in what was a lookahead spot but the Bucks were fully focused in the 28-point victory as they remain 2.5 games ahead of the Celtics in the Eastern Conference. It has won five of its last six games and is an incredible 24-3 over its last 27 games but now comes a big test. They are 23-13 on the road which is the third best road record in the league but have struggled against the top teams as they are 1-6 in seven games against the top six home teams in the NBA. The Nuggets remain in first place in the Western Conference where it has been most of the season as it is three games ahead of Memphis following two straight wins to conclude a 3-2 roadtrip. The Nuggets are 30-6 at home which is the second best home record in the NBA and this is a good litmus test to see where they actually stand. Denver lost the first meeting in Milwaukee but the lineup was depleted as the Nuggets were without Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray, Michael Porter, Jr. and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, four of the top five scorers on the team. Here, we play on home teams in March after going under the total by 24 or more points total in their last three games. This situation is 132-77 ATS (63.2 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (554) Denver Nuggets

This is a play on the BROOKLYN NETS as part of our NBA Saturday Triple Play. Miami defeated New York on Wednesday and is 4-1 over its last five games but continues to underachieve as it is only six games over .500 yet is now a game and a half behind the Knicks for fifth place in the Eastern Conference. The Heat are 25-13 at home but just 12-24-2 against the number and are still the worst overall ATS team in the NBA at 27-45-2 and are laying a big number here against a team that can catch them in the standings tonight. Brooklyn put together a solid run post trades as it won five of six games but has now lost five games in a row including the last four at home so getting out of town may not be a bad thing. The Nets are 20-18 on the road and while a lot of this record is with a different roster, this is still a solid roster with the pieces to make a run. They trail Miami by just a half-game for the No. 6 spot which would get them out of the play-in tournament and the last four losses have come down to the final minute so they have been right there. Here, we play against favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points in the second half of the season in a game involving two teams with a +/- 3 ppg point differential, after a combined score of 245 points or more. This situation is 57-20 ATS (74 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (551) Brooklyn Nets

This is a play on the INDIANA PACERS as part of our NBA Saturday Triple Play. Atlanta is coming off a loss at Minnesota on Wednesday to move to 36-37 on the season and how average have the Hawks been? It has now been 28 straight games where they have been within one game of .500 so while the losses have not been piling up, neither have the victories. They are currently in the No. 8 spot where they have been hovering for a while and are likely in the play-in tournament format should they remain in contention as they are 3.5 games from both the No. 6 and No. 11 slots. Now they are favored by double-digits which is a huge overreaction based on the other side. Indiana lost in Boston last night by 25 points and has now dropped three of its last four. The Pacers welcomed back Tyrese Haliburton who missed six games with an injury and he was a nonfactor against the Celtic as he scored just 20 points in 28 minutes and he will be needed for the Pacers playoff push. Indiana is tied with Washington for No. 11 in the Eastern Conference, 2.5 games behind Chicago for the final playoff spot. They are catching a point less tonight than what they were getting last night against Boston which is 14.5 games better than the Hawks which is not a big enough adjustment. Here, we play against favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points in the second half of the season in a game involving two teams with a +/- 3 ppg point differential, after a combined score of 245 points or more. This situation is 57-20 ATS (74 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (549) Indiana Pacers

This is a play on the CONNECTICUT HUSKIES for our NCAA Tourney Enforcer. Gonzaga had its game against UCLA in control late in the second half after overcoming a 13-point halftime deficit and nearly blew it against a depleted Bruins team as UCLA played without top defender Jaylen Clark and interior defender Adem Bona. Gonzaga had a commanding 50-26 rebounding edge and collected 16 offensive boards against the undersized Bruins and the Bulldogs will not have that luxury here against the No. 2 ranked total rebounding percentage rate team in the country. Drew Timme had a career game with 36 points and 13 rebounds and will not replicate that against the Huskies frontcourt. Going into the tournament, only five teams were ranked in the top 25 in both offensive and defensive efficiency with Connecticut being one of those and so far it has looked very dominant. The Huskies were No. 6 in offensive efficiency and has a solid edge there but their No. 22 defensive efficiency ranking could be the difference against the top offensive efficiency team in the nation. The Huskies dominated a very athletic Arkansas team as they held the Razorbacks to just 32 percent shooting from the floor and will be tenacious again on Saturday. 10* (653) Connecticut Huskies