Matt Fargo

This is a play on the GREEN BAY PHOENIX for our CBB Contrarian Crusher. Green Bay played at Kansas and the Phoenix were overmatched as expected, they were getting 30.5 points in Lawrence and now they are getting only a few points fewer in Minnesota? This is called value in a buy low spot as this line is severely inflated , a lot of that due to the fact Green Bay is 0-3 ATS. Minnesota is coming off a 23-point loss at Missouri so a bounce back effort is expected but the Gophers are being asked to win by a massive margin and they probably are not capable in this spot even though they did so against Gardner Webb and Alcorn St., schools from much more inferior conferences than the Horizon League where the Phoenix resides. Minnesota is coming off a 15-win season which cost head coach Ben Johnson his job and it is a complete rebuild as only two players are back, a redshirt freshman and a sophomore, from the roster from last season totaling just 5.6 ppg. This number is too aggressive. 10* (671) Green Bay Phoenix

This is a play on the NEW MEXICO LOBOS for our CBB Rivalry Rout. The Rio Grande Rivalry is set for Saturday and it is being played earlier than usual which could help the Aggies as students will be on campus as they are usually gone for break. There is always revenge in play and this time it is with the Lobos. The Aggies defeated the Lobos last season in an 89-83 overtime thriller in Albuquerque, but they'll face a completely new team this season. The New Mexico roster is entirely new and led by first-year head coach Eric Olen, who came over from UC San Diego after a tremendous season with the Tritons. Even though it is a new roster, the Lobos have at least been tested by three Division I teams, albeit teams very inferior to their own roster. It is still important because New Mexico St. has yet to play a Division I opponent as they have defeated Adams St. by only 11 points and New Mexico Highlands, in a game that was close until late. The Aggies have to replace all of their roster well so it is a wash. 10* (669) New Mexico Lobos

This is a play on the NEBRASKA CORNHUSKERS for our CBB Star Attraction. An old Big 8 Conference rivalry is renewed as this is just the second meeting since 2011, the first coming in 2022 in a random tournament in Florida and of course, this is not on either campus but in Sioux Falls, SD. Nonetheless, we like the Huskers as they bring in a much more experienced team and will be looking to get back to the NCAA Tournament after missing last season even though Nebraska did win the inaugural Crown Tournament in Las Vegas. The Huskers bring back two starters but it has been Iowa transfer Pryce Sandfort and redshirt freshman Braden Frager that have led the way as the top two scorers and third on the list is Rienk Mast, a seventh-year senior who missed all of last season. Oklahoma made it to the NCAA Tournament last season but it is in complete rebuilding mode this season as the Sooners lost all five starters and have relied on four transfers for their scoring. Tough spot for the Sooners. 10* (658) Nebraska Cornhuskers

This is a play on the SE MISSOURI REDHAWKS for our CBB Ultimate Underdog. SE Missouri St. will be on a mission this season as after winning the Ohio Valley Conference regular season title, the Redhawks were snubbed by the NIT as that tournament no longer takes conference winners as they changed the selection criteria. They are off to a 1-2 start with the victory being a non-Division I win over Webster University while the losses were both on the road. They were blown out at St. Louis, the favorites to win the Atlantic Ten Conference, and lost by only five points at Missouri as a 25.5-point underdog. Now comes their first home game against a real opponent and they are actually getting points. St. Thomas has been up and down as it is 2-2 with losses on the road at St. Mary’s and Washington St. while the two wins came at home against Army and Green Bay, both of which are picked to finish last in the Patriot and Horizon Leagues respectively. Wrong team favored. 10* (630) SE Missouri St. Redhawks

This is a play on the DENVER PIONEERS for our CBB Signature Enforcer. UTSA has had an awful run in the American Athletic Conference as it has won only 43 games over the last four seasons and not much is expected this season with another brand new roster for the most part as the Roadrunners lost all five starters from last season. The Roadrunners are No. 352 out of 365 teams in Offensive Effective Field Goal Percentage. Yes, it is just a three game sample but it shows how bad this offense is. UTSA is coming off a rivalry loss at Texas St. and remains on the road heading to altitude. Denver has a new head coach in Tim Bergstraser who came over from Division II Minnesota State-Moorhead where he made three NCAA Tournament appearances in his three years there and he brought four of his players from the Sweet 16 team from last season. The Pioneers are 1-2 with three solid efforts and all on the road with the two losses at Seattle and Washington and now it is their home opener. 10* (618) Denver Pioneers

This is a play on the BOISE ST. BRONCOS for our Saturday Free Play. Boise St. is coming off a 30-7 loss against Fresno St. at home which dropped the Broncos to 4-1 in the Mountain West Conference. They lost quarterback Maddux Madsen early in the game with an ankle injury and he did not return and the offense could do nothing with Max Cutforth. They managed one touchdown drive which was only 50 yards and took 12 plays, seven of which were running plays. The bad news is that Madsen is out again this week with Cutforth making his first start but the situation is on their side. Cutforth was thrown into the fire in that game with no preparation and now with Boise St. off its bye week, he has worked with the first team offense for two weeks. He will have Chris Marshall back, as the leading wide receiver has completed his one-week suspension. San Diego St. is also coming off its first conference loss as it got rolled in Hawaii 38-6 last week and has a week less to get ready for this game. The Aztecs possess the best defense in the Mountain West Conference and they are No. 3 in the country in Defensive EPA but they were exposed last week. The offense remains a huge concern as San Diego St. is No. 103 in Offensive EPA. Here, we play on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 averaging between 390 and 440 ypg and after allowing 3.75 or less yppl in their previous game going up against teams averaging between 330 and 390 ypg. This situation is 30-8 ATS (78.9 percent) since 1992 with the average scoring differential +12.0 ppg. Play (417) Boise St. Broncos

27-20 NFL Run. NFL +$18,740 L3+ Regular Seasons and +$76,060 run over the last 13 years. 69-60 FB Run. CFB 12 Saturday Winners and NFL FIVE Sunday Winners posted. CBB 5-0 Friday and 20-8 Run. More Winning Saturday!

This is a play on the MISSOURI ST. BEARS for our CFB Signature Enforcer. Missouri St. picked up its sixth win of the season last week in its first season at the FBS level but there is no bowl in the future unless a break or two goes its way. Missouri St. will petition the NCAA for a postseason waiver that would allow its football team to play in a bowl game this season, despite rules blocking first-year FBS programs. Additionally, if 82 teams do not meet the criteria, the Bears could get an invite. It has been a special season and the Bears have no interest in slowing it down and to extend their four-game winning streak. UTEP came up small last week as it lost by three points to Jacksonville St. to fall to 2-7 and out of eligibility for a bowl game. That was a disheartening loss and the Miners are 1-6 over their last seven games with the win coming against 0-5 Sam Houston. Here, we play on home teams with a winning percentage between .600 and .800 after four or more consecutive wins, playing a team with a winning percentage of .250 or worse. This situation is 45-18 ATS (71.4 percent) since 2021. 10* (398) Missouri St. Bears

This is a play on the JACKSONVILLE ST. GAMECOCKS for our CFB Late Powerhouse. A spot in the Conference USA Championship is up for grabs and while it is not a guarantee, it is highly likely. Kennesaw St. has been the surprise of C-USA as in its first season at the FBS level, the Owls went 2-6 with the two wins coming by a combined four points but they are off to a 5-0 start this season after being picked to finish dead last once again. Four of the wins have come against four of the bottom five teams in the conference with a combined record of 4-17 with the fifth coming against 3-3 Louisiana Tech. Jacksonville St. is also 5-0 and it too has been rather fortunate with a fairly easy run so far to go along with four one possession wins but the Gamecocks have the edge of playing at home. They are 40 and 20 spots higher in Offense and Defensive EPA respectively. Here, we play on home teams after three or more consecutive straight up wins going up against an opponent after five or more consecutive straight up wins. This situation is 63-28 ATS (69.2 percent) since 2016. 10* (390) Jacksonville St. Gamecocks

This is a play on the KANSAS ST. WILDCATS for our CFB Supreme Annihilator. It has been a miserable season for Kansas St. as it entered as a contender in the Big 12 Conference but opened with a loss against Iowa St. in Ireland and could never find its footing after that. The Wildcats are 4-5 following a loss against Texas Tech but they are coming off a bye at the perfect time so they could take a breath and close the season strong. The rout at the hands of the Red Raiders was the only bad game as the other four losses were by one possession and this is the get right game before travelling to Utah next week. The offense has been inconsistent at No. 97 in EPA but this is where they break out. Oklahoma St. just wants this season to end as they have lost eight straight games with their only win coming against FCS Tennessee Martin and only one loss has been by less than 17 points. Here, we play on road teams in conference games in the second half of the season averaging between 5.6 to 6.2 yppl going up against teams allowing 6.2 or more yppl. This situation is 43-14 ATS (75.4 percent) since 2021. 10* (367) Kansas St. Wildcats

This is a play on the SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI GOLDEN EAGLES for our CFB Contrarian Crusher. Texas St. was picked to win the Sun Belt Conference West Division by many outlets and all the Bobcats have done is go 0-5 and is playing itself out of a bowl game. Four of the five losses have been by one possession but that does nothing for them now since they are out of contention and it boiled over last week in a post-game fight with Louisiana following the 42-39 loss and with that comes six suspensions that includes three players along the defensive line. The offense has been fine but this defense has been shredded as they are now No. 117 in EPA. Southern Mississippi can go from worst to first as it went 0-8 in the SBC last season, 1-11 overall, and this season is already 5-0 with a very solid chance to go 8-0 and win the West. We back the short price. Here, we play against road teams in the second half of the season averaging 34 or more ppg and after a loss by three or less points going up against teams allowing between 21 and 28 ppg. This situation is 27-4 ATS (87.1 percent) since 1992. 10* (364) Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles

This is a play on the PITTSBURGH PANTHERS for our CFB Ultimate Underdog. This is it for Notre Dame as a win here and they are in the playing barring a complete meltdown in one of their final two games against Syracuse or Stanford where they will be favored by at least four touchdowns in each. The Irish shook off their two early losses against Miami and Texas A&M to win their last seven games but the schedule has been in their favor as all of the tougher games have been at home. They have only played two road games over this span and those were against Arkansas and Boston College which are both winless in their respective conferences and a combined 2-16 overall. They are a big favorite here because of the logo on the jersey. Pittsburgh is very much in play for the ACC Championship and while this is not a conference game, it is Notre Dame so there is no lookahead. Here, we play on home teams after four or more consecutive straight up wins going up against an opponent after five or more consecutive straight up wins. This situation is 47-18 ATS (72.3 percent) since 2016. 10* (352) Pittsburgh Panthers

This is a play on the MICHIGAN ST. SPARTANS for our CFB Rivalry Rout Smash. Penn St. came through for us last week with our video free play as it nearly pulled off the monumental upset against Indiana as it had the Hoosiers against the ropes but Indiana drove the length of the and Omar Cooper, Jr. made a miraculous catch with 36 second left to pull out the win. That was a game the Nittany Lions gave it their all as it was their National Championship game and now comes the proverbial letdown and it is a big one as there is no chance Penn St. gets up or will even be focused for this game. They have now lost six straight games and while a bowl game is still a possibility, this is a team that does not want to even go bowling after what has happened this season vs. what was expected. Michigan St. has also lost six straight and is also in line for a bowl and they want it. Here, we play against favorites of -175 to -400 vs. the money line off a conference loss going up against an opponent off a road loss by three points or less. This situation is 19-9 (67.9 percent) since 2016. 10* (348) Michigan St. Spartans

This is a play on the DUKE BLUE DEVILS for our ACC Game of the Month. Duke is coming off a loss at Connecticut as was the victim of a field storm and it was a meaningless nonconference game and the Blue Devils are back home and back to ACC action. They are in great position to make it to the ACC Championship as they are a half-game out of first place which is occupied by Georgia Tech who is responsible for the Blue Devils only loss. Duke finishes with North Carolina and Wake Forest so winning out is a legitimate possibility and it comes down to the defense as Duke still owns one of the best offenses in the country as No. 10 in EPA. Virginia suffered its first conference loss of the season last week in a 16-9 defeat at home against Wake Forest. They dominated but lost three fumbles, their first lost fumbles of the season so their luck ran out. Quarterback Chandler Morris is in concussion protocol and is questionable which is huge. Here, we play on home teams averaging 16 or more ppg in the first half, after a loss by three or less points. This situation is 64-28 ATS (69.6 percent) since 2021. 10* (340) Duke Blue Devils

This is a play on the EAST CAROLINA PIRATES for our AAC Game of the Year. Memphis had its playoff hopes come to an end last Friday with a 38-32 loss against Tulane which was its second loss in the American and with five teams ahead of them, getting to the AAC Championship is now impossible. This is the ultimate letdown spot for a team that arguably overachieved anyway as they got away with a win over Arkansas on a late fumble and a three-point win over South Florida thanks to a 17-0 fourth quarter meltdown by the Bulls. East Carolina is one of those teams in front of Memphis as the Pirates are 4-1 and finish with UTSA and Florida Atlantic, both on the road so they have work left. This does mark their final home game of the season which adds to the value. Here, we play on teams in the second half of the season averaging between 140 and 190 rushing ypg and after allowing 2.0 or less ypc last game going up against teams allowing between 100 and 140 rushing ypg. This situation is 33-10 ATS (76.7 percent) since 2021. 10* (332) East Carolina Pirates

This is a play on the TEXAS LONGHORNS for our CFB Marquee Star Attraction. Texas was kind of left for dead after losing to Florida and then lame duck head coach Billy Nappier to fall to 3-2 but the Longhorns have clawed their way back with four straight wins and are back in the top ten in CFP Rankings. Along with Notre Dame, they are the only two-loss teams in the top ten and this is the make or break game and it comes against a team that took them out twice last season, once in the regular season and the other in the SEC Championship. Georgia has won five straight games since its three-point loss to Alabama and this is a sell high spot as the Bulldogs are overpriced as this should be priced at a field goal as these teams are even on a neutral field. The matchups on each side are a wash while the schedule and Luck Rankings are near equal as well. Here, we play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points off two straight wins against conference rivals, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team. This situation is 74-37 ATS (66.7 percent) since 2021. 10* (325) Texas Longhorns

This is a play on the MICHIGAN WOLVERINES as part of our CFB Early Three-Pack. Michigan is still very much alive for a shot at the Big Ten Championship and a spot in the CFP and it should easily win the next two games and it gets to host Ohio St. in the season finale. We have seen this number rise from an opening of 9.5 but it is still in a good range even though the Wolverines have not been able to blow anyone out and this is almost a contrarian side even though it is on a typical public team. Two conference wins were by five points or less while the other three were by 14, 17 and 11 points but the Wolverines are coming off their bye week to try and get things in order for the stretch run. Northwestern had won four straight games but has lost its last two and of its five wins, it is hard to pick out a good one as none were impressive or against a good team. Here, we play on teams on a neutral field after failing to cover the spread in four out of their last five games going up against an opponent after covering the spread in two out of their last three games. This situation is 24-13 ATS (64.9 percent) since 1992. 10* (387) Michigan Wolverines

This is a play on the NAVY MIDSHIPMEN as part of our CFB Early Three-Pack. Navy is coming off a loss at Notre Dame in a game that meant nothing except rivalry pride and the Midshipmen made the right move by scratching quarterback Blake Horvath right before the game to get him healthy for the remainder of the American schedule. The Midshipmen are 5-1 in the conference which is good for solo first place by a half-game and after this, they are at Memphis so they have to win out to have a shot at the championship game and even that still would not be guaranteed. They are a huge home underdog and it is an overlay with a lot of that based on the South Florida love and the fact Navy is 0-6 ATS in its last six games so this is the contrarian take spot. The Bulls rolled over UTSA last Thursday and they remain in good shape to make the championship, especially with closing against UAB and Rice. They are just 2-2 on the road and are another team in a sell high spot and going back, they are 0-5 ATS in their last five games after covering three of their last four games. 10* (336) Navy Midshipmen

This is a play on the AIR FORCE FALCONS as part of our CFB Early Three-Pack. Connecticut is going to be a very popular play this week based on the fact they are coming off an upset win over Duke to move to 7-3 but that is the reason we are going against them. The Huskies crown could be the first ever to storm a field after beating Duke but they did and that is the next game auto-fade. The three losses for Connecticut have all been in overtime so a few bounces or a coin flip difference could have made it 10-0 and now we are seeing the line go the other way and under the key number seven which the public will love. Air Force saved their season with a win over San Jose St. last week to move to 3-6 so they have to win out and with New Mexico and Colorado St. remaining, it is more than possible. The Falcons have been playing better since October as they are 2-3 with the three losses all by three points. Here, we play on road teams after going under the total by 35 or more points total in their last three games, in November games. This situation is 55-24 ATS (69.6 percent) since 2021. 10* (321) Air Force Falcons