Michael Alexander

Rating: 2 Units

Offensively, Washington averages 79.4 points per game, while allowing 74.1 points per game defensively. While offensively, Oregon averages 73.9 points per game, while allowing 74.3 points per game defensively.

Rating: 2 Units

The Kings are still missing Keegan Murray while the Pistons have listed Caris LeVert as doubtful for this meeting. You couldn’t say this about most teams, but the Kings haven’t looked too bad during their losing streak. They are getting healthier with Sabonis rejoining the lineup, and they were more than competitive against the red-hot Cavaliers in their last outing. The Pistons come into this contest as obvious favorites at home, and they were certainly on a roll before they laid an egg against the Rockets in their last game. These teams last met on Dec. 23, and it was the Pistons who won by 136-127, and I am expecting a similar result in this one with the Pistons getting the win, but the Kings earning the backdoor cover on the road.

Rating: 2 Units

The Spurs obviously have the ability to blow this game open and the Pelicans are 4-17 SU on the road. I get it. However, the Spurs are 6-15 ATS in their last 21 games as a double-digit favorite. The Pelicans also have a chance to get Alvarado back, which would be a nice boost for them defensively. The underdog has covered 6 of the last 9 meetings between the Spurs and Pelicans. This just feels like too many points. Probably a lack of motivation for the Spurs if we’re being honest. Give me the points with the Pels.

Rating: 2 Units

NFL teams coming off a playoff victory of more than 32 points – this has happened only 10 times since 1990 – are just 3-6 outright and 2-7 ATS in the following game, including 1-5 SU and 0-6 ATS when that team is coming off consecutive SU and ATS wins. This will be the FIRST playoff opponent that Rams’ head coach Sean McVay has faced twice in his 16 postseason games. All previous 15 playoff foes were first-time opponents (the only NFC teams he has not met in the postseason are the Commanders and the Giants). FYI: he won, 30-20, in a previous playoff game at Seattle as a 3-point underdog in the 2020 playoffs. Given Seattle head coach Mike Macdonald’s disparaging home/road split – 10-8 SU and 7-10-1 ATS at home, 15-2 SU and 12-4-1 ATS on the road – we’ll opt to fade Seattle’s indifferent 1-3 SU and 0-3-1 ATS record at home under Macdonald when coming off a home game. 

Rating: 3 Units

Denver will attempt to continue the trend of home playoff teams from the previous season – 122-88-8 ATS since 1990 (including 12-3 2 as a home underdog), compared to 76-99-7 ATS when away. Head coach Sean Payton of the Broncos also boasts a strong record of 7-3 SU and 8-1-1 ATS in games as a home underdog against foes with a .750 or greater winning percentage. On the quarterback side, Drake Maye is having an MVP- type season, but you might not know he’s beaten sub- .444 teams with a 12-4 SU/ATS record, while against .444 or better foes, he’s 7-7 SU and 8-6 ATS. Ultimately, history favors No. 1 seeds with equal or lower win percentages in championship games are 4-0 outright and 3-1 ATS since 2000. With the Broncos entering this game as a 6-2 SU and 8-0 ATS underdog with a .700 or better win percentage against AFC East opponents.