Michael Alexander

Rating: 3 Units

Tomlin is nothing if not resilient; his record is 13-2 SU and 10-4-1 ATS after the Steelers score fewer than 10 points in the previous game, including 7-0 SU and 7-1-1 ATS when they’re over .500. John Harbaugh has a sturdy 36-21-4 ATS road mark when seeking revenge. The trends show Baltimore 4-1 ATS coming off a road game on Saturday, and Harbaugh is 2-0 SU vs. the Steelers after a SU underdog win. The Steelers are 8-1 ATS in their last nine non-division games and 8-11 ATS when scoring fewer than 7 in the prior game, while Aaron Rodgers is 34-14 ATS at home against division foes. Pittsburgh plays them close to the vest; six of their nine wins this year have been of the one-score variety, which has us consider that of 98 games between the Ravens and Steelers since 1991, 48 have been one-score games, with 28 of those games decided by a field goal or less.

Rating: 2 Units

FIU comes into this matchup after winning three of their last four games, with the one loss coming in overtime. The Panthers are shooting 47% from the field and they have scored at least 86 points in four straight games. UTEP has lost four of their last five games and they have scored 63 points or fewer in three of their last five. The Miners are shooting 44% from the field and they have allowed 79 and 75 in their last two games. I like how FIU has played over the last few weeks and I think they can cover this number at home.

Rating: 2 Units

Iona hasn’t been able to win more than two consecutive games since their first four-game win streak to open the season. They’ve been below 65 points in consecutive losses. While Marist shot just 32.7 percent from the field with 3-of-17 (17.6 percent) from outside during a bad shooting outing versus Saint Peter’s in their last game. The Foxes have finished below 60 points in consecutive losses during their last two outings.

Rating: 2 Units

As for the Bearkats, they had a bad second half in the Western Kentucky game. Sam Houston ended up shooting a solid 46.6 percent from the field and had a 38-36 advantage in the paint, but WKU’s free throws (20-of-27) and 3-pointers (14-of-35) proved to be the difference in the game. The good news is that the Bearkats are scoring well this year with 77 or more points in every game so far. Consider that Middle Tennessee has lost three of its last four day games against non-AP-ranked opponents and have lost the first half in three of its last four day games against non-AP-ranked opponents.

Rating: 2 Units

These two teams average a combined 145 points per game, 16.5 more points than the total of 128.5 set for this game. Opponents of the two teams average a combined 11.5 more points per game, 140, than this matchup’s over/under of 128.5 points. The average total for Cent. Conn. St.’s games this season is 23.2 more points than the over/under of 128.5 in this game. The average over/under for Chargers games this year is 4.9 more points than the point total of 128.5 in this outing.

Rating: 2 Units

The Golden Knights have lost each of their last five games as favorites against opponents on a winning streak and have failed to cover the puck line in each of their last six games as road favorites. While the Blackhawks have won five of their last six games as underdogs after coming off a shootout and have covered the puck line in each of their last six games as home underdogs against Western Conference opponents.

Rating: 2 Units

The Nuggets have lost three of their last four games as favorites and have failed to cover the spread in nine of their last 10 road games against Eastern Conference opponents that held a losing record. While the Nets have won three of their last four games as home underdogs following a loss. Additionally, the underdogs have covered the spread in five of the Nuggets’ last six games.

Rating: 2 Units

The Pistons have ruled out Caris LeVert, Jalen Duren and Tobias Harris, while the Cavaliers are keeping an eye on Dean Wade, Sam Merrill and Jarrett Allen, who are all listed as questionable for this one. The Pistons were simmering throughout the first part of the season before the injuries started to pile up, which has caused their recent drop-off. In contrast, the Cavaliers have started to turn their season around despite their injuries, and they enter this one as favorites after winning their last three games. These teams last met on Oct. 27, and it was the Cavaliers who romped to a 116-95 win at home. I’m expecting a much closer contest in this one, but with the line so short, I will stick with the resurgent Cavaliers to get the narrow win and cover at home.

Rating: 2 Units

Eight of the Lions’ last nine games without Kalif Raymond have gone OVER the total points line.

Rating: 2 Units

Nine of the Jets’ last 10 games without Jermaine Johnson have gone OVER the total points line. Each of the last three games between AFC East teams have gone OVER the total points line.

Rating: 2 Units

Each of the Titans’ last five games against the Jaguars following a home loss have gone UNDER the total points line. Four of the last five games between AFC South teams have gone UNDER the total points line.

Rating: 2 Units

Each of the Cowboys’ last seven games as favorites following a road win have gone OVER the total points line. Seven of the last eight Sunday games at MetLife Stadium have gone OVER the total points line.

Rating; 2 Units

NYJ are 1-5 ATS in their last six meetings versus teams with a .666 or better record, and 3-9 ATS in their previous 12 division road games. The Bills are 4-0 SUATS in the last four games of this series and 9-2 ATS when both teams are coming off a defeat. Buffalo is also 8-2 ATS as a home favorite off a home loss against a team coming off a loss, which you can pretty much always count on with the Jets these days. Bills coach Sean McDermott has been coy regarding how many starters may sit this game out, possibly including an ailing Josh Allen, whose foot injury has fans worried enough to consume wing sauce straight out of the bottle. It’s the last game for Highmark Stadium before Buffalo moves across the street to a palatial estate. Buffalo won 246 games in what was first known as Rich Stadium and went 16-3 in the playoffs there. 

Rating: 3 Units

The Rams have dropped two in a row, and depending on the outcome of this game and the 49ers game, they could drop from the #5 to the #6 NFC playoff seed. The numbers line up nicely for LA, they’re 6-0 SUATS in the last six versus .333 or worse opponents, a healthy 3-0 in Game 17, 4-1 after Monday Night Football, and 4-1 vs. double revenge, 8-3 after playing the Falcons but 1-7 in the last eight as a divisional favorite. Historically, a Sean McVay team bounces back well, as McVay is 16-8-1 ATS in games when coming off an SU favorite loss, including 12-3 ATS when a favorite of three or more points. 

NFC Game of the Week

Rating: 5 Units

If it weren’t for Chicago leading the league in net turnover margin, they’d probably be on the outside looking in at the NFC Playoff picture. The Lions are 6-0 ATS when coming off a SU road favorite loss, while the Windy City wonders are 2-10 ATS against foes coming off a SU road favorite loss. And for the final nail in the coffin, consider that Chicago is 0-6 SUATS against opponents coming off a Thursday game this decade.