Mike Lundin

L.A. Chargers vs Seahawks NFL Free Pick

The Angle(s): The market has priced the Chargers as if they are one of the worst teams in the league after an 0-3 start, but the Seahawks look more vulnerable than their record. Seattle just lost 33-31 at Washington, and the defense gave up more than it has been used to. Darnold is only in his second game back from a glute injury, and the run game has been inconsistent with rookie Jadarian Price out with a chest injury. The Chargers have been a strong run defense, and their edge rushers Khalil Mack, Tuli Tuipulotu and Mesidor can make life difficult for a Seattle line.

The market has overreacted to the record, and I like the Chargers to stay within reach of this number in a spot where they should play with urgency.

The Bet: Chargers ATS (3%). 

Coming off a 6-1 Saturday! Mike has 5 NFL picks, incl. a 4% TOP PLAY on Colts vs Commanders in London at 9 AM ET, a 5% MAX BET, and a play on Lions vs Panthers Sunday Night. And that's just the football! 

4% Chiefs v Raiders NFL Total TOP PLAY

The Angle(s): Both defenses have been better than the offenses so far. The Chiefs have allowed the third-fewest points in the league at 16.7 ppg, and the Raiders are not far behind at 18.0. Both teams have invested heavily at running back, with Kenneth Walker III in Kansas City and Ashton Jeanty in Las Vegas, and the Chiefs are averaging 153.3 rushing yards per game, which should keep the clock moving. Four of the last five meetings between these two divisional rivals have also stayed under the total.

Additionally, both offensive lines have problems. The Chiefs are without left tackle Josh Simmons and the Raiders are without guard Jackson Powers-Johnson, which should make it harder to sustain drives. Chamarri Conner returns to a Kansas City secondary that struggled a week ago, which helps close down the big plays. The total has also been pushed up by one-sided public action, so I like the Under at this number.

The Bet: Under (4%).

MAGIC MIKE'S NFL BOOKIE BREAKER

The Angle(s): The Cowboys' defense ranks dead last in EPA per play and success rate and is allowing 6.0 yards per play, and the secondary is short on bodies again with Cobie Durant and DeMarvion Overshown out. Nico Collins is expected back after a two-game absence, which gives C.J. Stroud his top target against that secondary. Stroud was ugly in Week 3 against the Colts, but the Texans lost that one by two and have had a rough start in a lot of the little areas. Dallas also comes off a heartbreaking loss in Brazil and has to turn it around quickly on the road.

Houston is 0-3 and badly needs this one at home. The Texans have their issues, with a leaky defense against tight ends, but this is a home favorite in a must-win spot against the worst defense in the league.

The Bet: Texans ATS (3%). 

MAGIC MIKE'S Lions v Panthers SNF BOOKIE BU$TER

The Angle(s): The Lions have scored 31 in all three games, but the defense is the issue, ranking in the bottom ten in several categories. The secondary is also thin, with Brian Branch on PUP and D.J. Reed questionable. Carolina is getting a home Sunday Night Football spot, their first since 2016, and the home team has won and covered each of the last four meetings in this series. Bryce Young is healthy, Chuba Hubbard and Darren Waller are full go, and Devin Lloyd and Nick Scott are back on defense.

Admittedly, the Panthers aren't healthy, with both starting corners on IR and Xavier Legette and Damien Lewis out. But the market has leaned hard on those injuries, and Detroit being a road favorite on a short week of travel into a prime-time home crowd gives us value on the points.

The Bet: Panthers ATS (3%). 

5% NFC Game of the Year MEGA MAX BET

The Angle(s): The Eagles are thin on both sides of the ball. DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert are both out, which strips Philadelphia of its top wide receiver and top tight end. Zack Baun is also out in the middle of the defense, and Marcus Epps is out at safety. Matthew Stafford, Davante Adams and Puka Nacua should find plenty of room against that back seven, and the underneath windows where Stafford excels are exactly where the Eagles are stressed. 

The Rams have their own injuries, with Aaron Donald and Jaylen Watson out, but the Eagles' offense is losing more than the Rams' defense is. Philadelphia will need to lean on Hurts and Barkley on the ground, and the Rams held Barkley to 46 yards on 18 carries last season.

The Bet: Rams ATS (5%). 

4% Colts v Commanders NFL @ London TOP PLAY

The Angle(s): Jayden Daniels is officially out, so Marcus Mariota gets the start again for the Commanders. The cast around him keeps shrinking, as Rachaad White, Sam Cosmi and Nick Cross are also out, and Terry McLaurin is questionable. Mariota was sharp against Seattle with three touchdown passes, but that came with a fuller group of weapons and protection. Playing in London also takes away any real home-field edge for the Commanders. 

Daniel Jones has been inconsistent for the Colts, but the Commanders' offense has the bigger problems right now. Washington's top-three run defense numbers come against a schedule that hasn't really tested them on the ground. I like the more stable side of the quarterback situation at this number

The Bet: Colts ATS (4%).