Ricky’s 1* Free Play on the New York Yankees.

New York leads the season series 9-4, but Tampa took two of three in a series right before the All-Star break. However the Rays have lost four straight in the Bronx, allowing 34 runs in the process. New York enters having gone 12-0-1 in its last 13 home series after securing the 4-2 win over Toronto on Sunday. James Paxton (5-4, 4.01 ERA) gets the nod for the home side and he’s 3-1 with a 3.24 ERA over four career match ups with the Rays. The Rays go with Blake Snell, who is 0-2 with a 5.29 ERA vs. New York this year. 

Key Trends:

- Tampa Bay a poor 19-21 (-5.3 units) this season vs. teams with winning records.

- New York is 15-2 (+11.9 units) this year as a home favorite in the -125 to -175 range.

The verdict: For the most part MLB handicapping is about the starting pitchers and in this case, I like Paxton to get the better of Snell, who is now just a shell of his former self. Consider the Yankees on Monday night!

Ricky’s 8* play on the St. Louis Cardinals.

Both Joe Musgrove (6-7, 4.15 ERA) of the Pirates and Miles Mikolas (5-9, 4.53) of the Cardinals have enjoyed incredible success in their careers, but so far 2019 has not been one of those campaigns for either beleaguer hurler. These starters are a “wash” today. Neither has any momentum. The Pirates have no momentum either after getting swept in Chicago over the weekend. I think the difference comes in the stats/numbers/trends.

Key Trends:

- As note that Pittsburgh is just 18-27 as a road dog this year.

- Also note that St. Louis is 14-7 at home with a money line in the -100 to -150 range.

The verdict: I like St. Louis to take advantage of home field; lay the short price!

Ricky’s 8* play on the under Braves/Brewers.

I think these starters will battle into the deep innings and as such, I look for this total to sneak below this sky-high number. Max Fried (9-4, 4.29 ERA) gets the call for the Braves, while the Brewers turn to Adrian Houser (2-3, 4.01). Fried is 1-1 with a 4.00 ERA lifetime vs. the Brewers, but he’ll be eager to get back on track after scuffling down the stretch of the first half. Houser also struggled in his last couple of starts before the break, but overall he’s been solid this season (note that he’s faced the Braves once in relief and he’d allow three hits over three innings.) 

Key Trends:

- The Braves have seen the total go under the number in 13 of 20 this year on the road when the money line is in the -100 to -150 range.

- The Brewers have seen the total go under in 16 of 25 vs. southpaws already this season.

The verdict: Additionally note that Brewers’ slugger Ryan Braun won’t be in the line-up tonight as he attends the funeral of Tyler Skaggs. This number is a little high, play the under!

Ricky’s 8* play on the Chicago Cubs.

I played on the Cubs in their three-game series sweep of the Pirates in every contest and I believe that the home side keeps the good times rolling here. Cincinnati goes with ace Luis Castillo (8-3, 2.29 ERA), while the visitors counter with Kyle Hendricks (7-7, 3.49). Hendricks is 6-2 with a 3.31 ERA in 15 career starts vs. the Reds. Castillo is 3-2 with a 3.35 ERA in eight career starts vs. Chicago. 

Key Trends:

- Cincinnati is a poor 10-20 this year as a road dog in the +100 to +150 range.

- Chicago is a great 18-5 (+10.4 units) this season as a home favorite in the -125 to -175 range.

The verdict: Additionally note that Hendricks is a “lights out” 2-0 with a 1.71 ERA in his last three meetings vs. the Reds. Chicago won’t be taking anything for granted here after losing six of nine in the season series to this point. All things considered, a great price on a hot team; lay it!

Ricky’s 6* play on the Cleveland Indians.

Cleveland has won seven of its last ten and I look for it to keep the good times rolling here vs. the lowly Tigers. Detroit hands the ball to Daniel Norris (2-8, 4.96 ERA) who gave up six runs to the Tribe back on June 23rd and who owns a 4.37 ERA vs. them in nine career appearances. Norris most recently was rocked for six runs vs. the White Sox on July 3rd to fall to 0-6 during a brutal ten-start winless streak. The home side counters with Adam Plutko (3-1, 4.95) who enters off a poor start vs. the Orioles, allowing five runs over five innings, but who is a sharp 2-0 with a 3.94 ERA in five career appearances vs. Detroit. 

Key Trends:

- Detroit is just 12-33 (-15.2 units) this year in all “night” games.

- Cleveland is 16-8 as a home favorite of -150 or higher this season.

The verdict: Look for Plutko to easily get the better of his volatile counterpart as Cleveland continues its torrid streak at home; lay the price!

Ricky’s 6* play on the Boston Red Sox.

This is a big game and a big series for Boston, which plays its next 21 games vs. AL East foes. The home side sends Rick Porcello (6-7, 5.33 ERA) to toe the slab, while the visitors go with Trent Thornton (3-6, 4.85). Both starters have struggled against their respective opponent, so I’m calling them a “wash.” The difference comes in the numbers/stats/trends.

Key Trends:

- As note that Toronto is just 6-18 (-6.7 units) this year as a road dog of +150 or more.

- Additionally note that Boston is 31-15 vs. clubs with losing records this season.

The verdict: Toronto’s offense has been terrible of late, as it was held to two runs or fewer for the fifth tim in its last six games in yesterday’s 4-2 loss in New York. Look for the Red Sox to get their big home stand started off on the “right foot!” 

Ricky’s 8* play on the under Rays/Yankees.

New York leads the season series 9-4, but Tampa took two of three in a series right before the All-Star break. However the Rays have lost four straight in the Bronx, allowing 34 runs in the process. New York enters having gone 12-0-1 in its last 13 home series after securing the 4-2 win over Toronto on Sunday. James Paxton (5-4, 4.01 ERA) gets the nod for the home side and he’s 3-1 with a 3.24 ERA over four career match ups with the Rays. The Rays go with Blake Snell, who is 0-2 with a 5.29 ERA vs. New York this year. Clearly Snell won’t be lacking for motivation. 

Key Trends:

- Tampa Bay has seen the total go under in nine of 12 already as a road do this season.

- New York has seen the total go under in 11 of 17 already this season as a home favorite in the -125 to -175 range.

The verdict: Look for these hungry and capable starters to battle into the latter frames and for this total to fall under the number once it’s all said and done!

Ricky’s 8* play on the under Dodgers/Phillies.

Zach Eflin (7-8, 3.78 ERA) squares off against the Dodgers’ Clayton Kershaw (7-2, 3.09). Both teams enter off Sunday victories. Eflin was rocked in his final start before the break, but overall he’s been solid this year. With the extra time off, there’s no reason not to think that he can’t match Kershaw inning for inning. Kershaw has a 2.84 ERA in 14 career regular season starts vs. the Phillies. 

Key Trends:

- LA has seen the total go under the number in eight of 12 already this year on the road when the total is set between 9 and 9.5.

- Philadelphia has seen the total go under in ten of its last 15 following a win by two runs or less.

The verdict: This one has “duel” written all over it in my opinion; play the under!