Rob Vinciletti

The NBA Western Conference Play is on Minnesota. Game 528 at 5:40 eastern. Th Wolves look to bounce back tonight after the late blown lead loss to Chicago. They fit this Perfect system tonight that wins on average by 19 points per game. We are playing on Conference home favorites from -5 to -15 if they are off a home favored loss as a favorite of 7 or more and blew a lead of more than 3 points and lost the prior game as a road favorite if they are taking on a .600 or less opponent like the Warriors that are off a loss and the total here is more than 170. ALL 9 of these home teams have covered big. Golden St is trying to figure things out now with Butler out for the year as they try and work Kuminga back into the lineup. This is a tough road spot for them. Golden St has failed to cover in 9 of their last 10 road losses. Minnesota has won and covered the last 3 in the series and may win big tonight.

The SERIE A Totals play is on the under 2.5 goals in the AC Milan vs Roma match. Rotation numbers 210333/34 at 2:45 eastern. This game figures to have very little scoring considering the top level defensive form of each  team. Milan is unbeaten in their last 20 SERIE A Matches and Roma is on a 3 game win streak where they have had clean sheets in all three. In a battle between two top 5 teams we will back the Under here.

The AFC Championship game play is on New England. Game 101 at 3 eastern. The Patriots look for their first ever playoff win here in Denver and they are in good position as they have some solid technical data on their side. In fact playoff road favorites off back to back win that last as a home favorite are a perfect 5-0 straight up and to the spread if the total is less than  51 and the opponent is off a home favored win. Also of note is a perfect play against system for dogs of less than 9 points like Denver that went to over time in their last game. The Broncos are also in another perfect play against system that pertains to non division grass home dogs that pertains to first downs conversions. Denver is going with the the backup here in Stidham the EX- Patriot. Coach Payton will have him as ready as possible and they will move the ball. However, the main problem for Denver will be trying to stop a Patriots offense that has not really come alive yet but was clutch against the #1 defense in Houston last week. Denver has a tendency to blow coverage and miss assignments and that would be very costly here. At the start of the playoffs The Patriots were the only AFC Team fitting a SB Profile we use and even if Nix was playing we would still be backing the Pats who would be hosting the Bills had that been a Catch for Cooks. Play on the Pats

SU:5-0 

ATS:5-0

Jan 25,  20260Sun 21Patriots Broncos  away---4  43

The NFL Playoff totals Play is on the OVER in the LA. Rams at Seattle Game. Rotation numbers  103/104 at 6:30 eastern. Rob notes that week 20 or later games where we have a team that allowed less than 14 points in back to back games and scored more than 15 are 23-0 to the OVER  if they had less than 3 turnovers. Seattle Qualifies here and These games have averaged 55 points long term. These two met a few weeks ago and the game went to over time with both team scoring over 30. Both teams should move the ball here and we should see some scoring. Play this game over.

OU:23-0-1 

Team:27.8

Opp:26.9

Sun21   Seahawks   Rams   home------2.5  46.5