Rob Vinciletti

MLB Members only total on the OVER in the Reds vs Cubs game at 2:20 eastern

 Welcome to the 4th season of the UNSURPASSED Collection. This is a newer product line from Rob. The selections are derived from a unique formula consisting of a complex predictive analytical model and multi sequenced simulation indicators. The UNSURPASSED play is on The OVER in the LA. Lakers at OKC Game. Rotation numbers 569/570 at  9:30 eastern. MOVE ON THE OVER here 

The MLB Late night Bailout is on the SD. Padres. Game 906 at 10:10 eastern. There is an 0-11 system dating to 2004 in effect for this game that pertains to road teams like the Cardinals in non division games if they are off a home loss where they scored 4 or less runs and had 4 or less hits and they are taking on a team like the Padres that are off a road win and scored at least 5 runs and they have a .500 or better win percentage and  the total in this game is 8 or less. These road teams lose by an average 6-2 score. King goes for the Padres and he has allowed 2 or less runs in 5 of his 7 starts. Liberatore goes for St. Louis and he has been up and down and has allowed 4 or more runs in nearly half his starts. The Padres have won 4 of the past 5 in the series and beat Liberatore twice last season.  Look for the Padres to take the opener.

The NHL Totals System play is on the under 5.5 goals in the Carolina at Philly matchup. Game 8/9 at 8 eastern. Rob looked  at every game in the database where a team came home after back to back playoff road dog losses and blew a 2+ goal lead and EVERY one of them went under and none had more than 5 goals. So we like the 5.5 here even with the -140. The last 4 in the series all had 5 or less goals. In fact 5 of the last 6 here have stayed under. Look for this game to stay lower scoring and go Under the total

The NBA Live dog is on Cleveland. Game 567 at 7 eastern. The Cavs are in a solid spot here as Road dogs  of less than 7 points off a road dog loss in game one are a perfect 5-0 straight up and to the spread long term if they won a home game 7 in the prior series. The Pistons ended their long game 1 of a series losing streak but are no cinch as they spit the season series with the Cavs who were one of the few teams to win here in Detroit this season. Now looking specifically at round 2 and game 2 Rob notes that Playoff divisional home favorites of less than 5 are 0-4 straight up off a home favored win if they had 10+ turnovers. Cleveland, particularly D. Mitchell was mystified why he doesnt get calls and the went to the line just twice despite several drives to the basket. In general the Pistons has a 35-16 free throw attempted edge and with the teams shooting 44 and 45% that edge ultimately decided the game. Cleveland also is unlikely to fall behind 16 after one quarter in this one. A quick thought on the FT edge, the database shows that home favorites that shot 35+ free throws vs a team that shot less than 17 failed to cover 9 of 12 times in playoff games. We will back the Cavs plus the points tonight

Thursday card has 2 NBA TOP Plays one is a 100% Game 2 Round two 6* the other from our NBA Unsurpassed totals Collection. We also have NHL and MLB. Comp play below

The NHL Comp play is on Carolina at 8 eastern. The Canes have won the first 6 playoff games and tonight they take to the road off a come from behind win over Philly on Monday after trailing 2-0. Rob notes that home dogs like Philly that are off a pair of road dog losses are winless over the last 22 seasons if they blew a 2 goal lead in their last game. All time in round 2 game 2 road teams are 52-39 if they wont the first two at home. Look for the Canes to keep rolling here. GL Rob V-